Probability and Statistics – An Introduction

Stage 1

Established Goals Transfer

Students will be able Students will be able to independently use their learning to
to reason interpret the real world data around them to make
quantitatively and use estimations of likelihood of events, judge probabilistic
units to solve models, and interpret bias in probabilistic representations of
problems: N-Q.A.1, data sets.
N-Q.A.2.
Meaning
Students will be able to
summarize, represent, UNDERSTANDINGS: ESSENTIAL QUESTIONS:
and interpret data on a
single count or Students will understand that How can collecting and analyzing
measurement variable: you can represent the same data help you make decisions or
S-ID.A.1-4. data different ways and come predictions?
Students will be able to to different conclusions.
make inferences and How can you make and interpret
justify conclusions Students will understand that different representations of data?
from sample surveys, there is bias in all data
experiments, and representations. How is probability related to real
world events?
observational studies:
Students will understand that
S-IC.B.5.
different measures of data
Math practices 3, 4, and (measures of central
6: tendency, etc.) mean different
 Students will be things in the real world; only
able to construct some are actually seen in the
viable real world, whereas others are
arguments and purely theoretical (mean
critique the versus median).
reasoning of
others.
 Students will be
able to model
with
mathematics.
  Students will be
able to attend to
precision.

Acquisition of Knowledge and Skill

Students will know: Students will be skilled at:

 The differences and  Computing permutations and
similarities between combinations
theoretical and  Calculating conditional
experimental probabilities
probabilities  Calculating probabilities of
 How to represent data compound events
with various models  Modeling data with various
 How to use a matrix to model types
organize data
 How to collect real
world data into a
sample/survey

Stage 2 – Evidence

Evaluative Criteria: Assessment Evidence: Students will need to show their

Throughout the unit, there learning by creation of a final presentation, with reflections
will be various homework on peer feedback.
assignments, Do Now’s,
and Exit Tickets judged
on various criteria
(completion versus
accuracy). There are
several quizzes, rather
than a final chapter test,
due to the time of the year.
There is also a final
project, see rubric.
Transfer Tasks: (What
assessments will provide
valid evidence of transfer
and understanding (and
other Stage 1 goals)?)
Throughout the unit, there
will be several Do Now’s,
Exit Tickets, quizzes, and
final project. In the final
project, the rubric will
state that students must
show that they can
identify bias in data
representations (during
peer reflections), make
projections using
probabilistic data, and
create a study.
For the Do Now’s, Exit
Tickets, and any
homework, they are
graded on accuracy and/or
completion. For holistic,
non-computational
activities, they will be
graded on accuracy of
reasoning; for
computational practice,
they will be graded on a
demonstration of
knowledge and
completion.
Quizzes will be
computational and
explanatory. They will
test 3 to 4 sections at a
time and demonstrate all
content standards.
Other Evidence: (What other
evidence will you collect to
determine whether Stage 1
goals were achieved?)
All math practices and content
standards are reinforced
throughout this unit.
However, not included in this
unit plan, but included in
probability studies is the study
of Box and Whisker plots.
There would be a mini
discovery project (3 to 4 days)
where students would collect
data on their reaction times,
make individual box plots for
their reaction times, then be
grouped to plot their box plots
with another 3 students. This
would show how box plots
can be used for comparison,
what it looks like to have
consistent versus inconsistent
data, and how to compare data
with this model type. In
addition, there would be a 1
day presentation day where
students would give 5 minute
presentations to the class as a
group and students would ask
questions (graded on both
presentation and quality of
questions asked).
 Stage 3 – Learning Plan

To see detailed lesson plans, please follow the below link. In sum, this is a 12 day unit
(over 13 days because of half days), with quizzes and a final project. There is no chapter
cumulative test; the project is meant to demonstrate overarching knowledge of students
about probability. Quizzes check understanding of computational and littler ideas in the
chapter. Below you can see a summarized breakdown of each day: the hook, activity for
the day, and the objectives for each day.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1VUX7BoEzR1FB1Q2WzLkS4HEsMZgaEZ8i

Day 1 (Half Day)

 Hook: A set of data about a landscaping company (substitute with 3 student names)
working hours is posted on the board. Students are not asked specifically how to
represent the data, just given that they are the manager and receive a bunch of
unorganized notes, “How could you organize the data to make summaries that you
need as a manager?”.
 Activity: The rest of the day will be spent adding and subtracting matrices, again
starting with our real data. Then we will try to add and subtract matrices with
different dimensions and discover why this doesn’t work.
 Objective(s): Students will be able to add, subtract, and multiply matrices by a
scalar. Students will also be able to represent systems of equations/general data as
a matrix.

Day 2
 Hook: Students are given another set of data, this time about how much money was
collected for each activity type by 3 different teachers. Students will be asked to
organize into a matrix. There are multiple right answers. We will discuss as a class
all of the different representations they used.
 Activity: The rest of the day will be spent multiplying matrices by a scalar and
finding where this occurs in real life, then using matrices in an applied setting. As
an exit ticket, students will be given 2 matrices of different dimensions, asked what
they notice about it, and to find the ‘answer’.
 Objective(s): Same as Day 1. This is a continuation.

Day 3 (Half Day)

 Hook: A set of data will be posted on the board about tree heights within different
ranges for height. Students will be asked to predict how many trees are within a
different range, using part of one given range and other given ranges (making
inferences).
  Activity: The remainder of the day will be construction of frequency tables for
another given data set. We will have a brief construction of continuous versus non-
continuous data.
 Objective(s): Students will be able to construct frequency tables and histograms,
both by hand and with technology. Students will also be able to draw conclusions
from histograms. Lastly, students will be able to construct cumulative frequency
tables.

Day 4
 Hook: Students will be asked to create a bar graph from the data used the day prior
(basketball data). They will be asked to use the intervals that we decided were
appropriate the day prior.
 Activity: The rest of the class, we will learn how to graph histograms on the
calculator, how bin width (size of intervals) affects the graph and decisions that we
can make from the data, and construct cumulative frequency tables. By the end of
the day, students should be able to look at all 3 of these data models and draw a
conclusion.
 Objective(s): See day 3. This is an extension.

Day 5
 Hook: Students will vote for their favorite ice cream flavors out of four choices.
Then they will work with a partner to calculate measures of central tendency.
 Activity: The remainder of class will be used for students to work in pairs and then
share ideas back out to the class as a whole group using two data sets. They will
calculate all values stated in objectives and draw conclusions about class stem and
leaf plots, given their knowledge of histograms and probability.
 Objective(s): Students will be able to calculate range, measure of dispersion, mean,
median, and mode and use these measures to analyze data. Students will be able to
find a data point, given other data points and a measure of central tendency (i.e.
finding a value needed in order to maintain a certain average). Lastly, students will
be able to relate histograms and measures of central tendency.

Day 6
 Hook: Students will be given data about a survey that was completed at a local
pizza shop about Bodine student’s pizza eating patterns. They will be asked to
discuss with a partner anything they notice about the survey (bias, etc.).
 Activity: The remainder of the day will be guided instruction of sample/survey
discussions. Students will work in pairs on “they do” portions of the lesson. They
will complete an exit ticket to test their knowledge of biased surveys.
  Objective(s): Students will be able to classify data as qualitative/quantitative and
univariate/bivariate. Students will also be able to differentiate between populations
and samples and how each is relevant to statistical analysis. Lastly, students will be
able to identify bias in a statistical analysis.

Day 7
 Quiz day

Day 8
 Hook: You have a plastic bag with different colored cubes. How many different
ways can you pull the cubes? List them all. Students will work in partners and
compare answers to each other amongst groups (groups will have 2, 3 and 4 cube
bags).
 Activity: The remainder of the day will be a guided discovery activity about
permutations, combinations, and the multiplication principle.
 Objective(s): Students will be able to use the multiplication principle to count all
possibilities for a given problem. Students will also be able to compute
permutations and combinations. Lastly, students will be able to apply permutations
and combinations to real world problems.

Day 9
 Hook: Students will complete the same activity as before, but now compare the
theoretical and experimental probabilities, based on 10 trials.
 Activity: The remainder of the day will be guided instruction to define new terms
and practice new ideas. Students will work in groups to complete problems
throughout the class.
 Objective(s): Students will be able to compute theoretical and analyze
experimental probabilities. students will understand the relationship between
theoretical and experimental probabilities. Students will also understand the
relationship between a given probability and it’s compound event and compute
compound probabilities. Lastly, students will be able to generate hypotheses given
experimental and theoretical probabilities.

Day 10
 Hook: Before being given definitions, students will be given words to describe
probabilistic events and asked to brainstorm types of activities that would fall into
each category, given their knowledge of the base words.
 Activity: The rest of the day will be similar to before, this time doing some “we
do” learning then “they do” learning for independent/dependent, mutually exclusive
events, overlapping events, etc.
  Objective(s): Students will be able to define events as mutually
exclusive/overlapping, independent/dependent, and/or compound. Then they will
be able to calculate the probability of given events. Lastly, students will be able to
differentiate between with and without replacement events, calculate their
probabilities, and explain why probabilities are greater/smaller depending on their
replacement type.

Day 11
 Quiz Day

Day 12
 Hook: We will discuss various probability experiments (brainstorm).
 Activity: Students will be grouped into pairs and directed to create a probability
experiment and compute theoretical probabilities. They should create an
instructions manual on how to do the experiment.
 Objective(s): Students will be able to compute both theoretical and experimental
probabilities for a given experiment; they will analyze any differences. They will be
able to design and conduct an experiment. Lastly, they will be able to test
probability theory.

Day 13
 Hook: Students will start class with finishing their theoretical calculations and
instruction manual.
 Activity: Students will exchange with another group and do experiments and
calculate experimental probabilities. They will then compare both and what they
think differences or similarities mean.
 Objective(s): See Day 12 objectives.