PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF EXTREME WIND SPEEDS IN SUDAN Abu Baker A.Wahab* Yahia E.A Mohamedzein** and Asim El,Sanosi * Abstract: xtreme value analysis of wind data for 23 stations in the Sudan is described, Methods of order statistic ss well as metho The probabilistic distribution that b. moments are used for the analysis of win odel is verified by the plot correlation coefficient test to decide upon the type of fits the data. The analysis revealed that the largest winds for all stations are best y Type distribution. Basie design wind speeds are calculated at each station and isotach speeds distribution for the 23 stations, naps for Sudan for 2 50 and 100 years recurrence intervals are presented as specified in ANSI A 58.1. introduction: wind is caused by atmospheric pressure fferentials which rises over the surface of the earth. The acceleration produced by these pressure differentials is accompanied by geostrophic acceleration due to curvature and tation of the earth. The resultant of these tations produces a motion of free air parallel to the lines of equal barometric pressure (isobars), The velocity of the free air is known as the gradient velocity. This velocity is only attained at very high levels above ground. Closer to the ground, the wind is retarded by frictional forces and obstructions and vertical stress produces vertical exchange of momentum by turbulence. Turbulence also causes rapid fluctuation in the velocity with a wide range of frequencies and amplitudes . The velocity at lower levels, therefore, is expressed in terms of mean speed{1]. Horizontal air motion is caused by variation of air density which, in general is due to unequal heating of the earth surface. Consequently wind speed is proportional to the magnitude of density gradient ot temperature differences. In the semi arid belt of Central Africa latitudinal temperature gradient is stronger during winter season than in summer. Accordingly the mean wind speed is higher in winter. Nevertheless the highest maximum gusts occur in summer and are caused by thunderstorms down draft, a downrush of rain cooled air from thunder clouds spreading radially at the surface{2]. The downdraft travel with the parent clouds which generally move from east to west and cover relatively small area. ‘Thunderstorms develop within the humid southerly airstream which affects the southem part of the semi-arid belt in March and conventionally spreads northwards to a mean northerly boundary positioned around latitude 20°N in August. The boundary of the humid air, called the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), varies in position now and then, but the tropic of Cancer (23° 30/N) may be taken as the ITCZ envelope all the area in Sudan south of ITCZ envelope, is liable to be subjected to thunderstorms and the associated wind gusts. Wind loads are important for the design of structures such as tall buildings, towers, warehouses ete... This paper studies the distribution of the extreme annual wind speeds over the Sudan to be able to assess the induced loads on structures.’ Salih [1] made a preliminary contribution in 1978 in the analysis of wind speed meking use of 15 stations in the Sudan. Hago[3] in 1987 was able to collect additional data and he followed similar technique adopted by Salih. In this study the number of stations is extended to 23, the original data is verified and augmented by as much as 20 years record in some stations, The data is well scrutinized — and more rigorous analysis is adopted to estimate the wind * Faculty of Engineering and Arch. Khartoum University. ** Building & Road Research Institute, U. of K. o—speed. Isotach maps for 25, 50 and 100 year mean recurrence intervals, as recommended by the American National Structural Institute ANSI # 58.1-82[4], are drawn on. the geographical map of the Sudan to be available for engineers to implement. 2. MEASURMENTS OF WIND VELOCITIES ing the basic wind speeds for the ign of structures, the following basic fundamentals must be considered in determining the interval for measurements of wind velocities: a) The interval should coincide as far as possible with some natural periodicity of the wind. In b). The interval should be long compared to the natural frequency of the structure and the response time of the ‘instrument. ©) The interval should be adequate enough to record the peaks of sever storms. d) The interval should correspond to a body of air of sufficient size to envelope a structure The “mile wind’ or the ‘minute wind’ both ‘present suitable intervals for measuring high velocities for the purpose of structural analysis. Data everaged over short intervals like highest gust, 5 second average can, in certain, cases, be affected by strong turbulence Which results in unrealistic picture of the mean winds. The mile of wind has been recommended for use in the United ited Kingdom, In the Sudan all instruments in all stations are calibrated for 5 minute interval. 3. SURFACE ROUGHNESS The effect of surface roughness on the profile of wind storms is very important. Surface roughness is defined as the cumulative statistic drag effect of many obstructions in the wind flow. The surface roughness is characterized by the density, size and height of buildings, trees, vegetation, rocks ... etc., on the ground around and over which the wind blows. It will be a minimum over oceans and a maximum in large cities. Various empirical and semi-empirical formulas have been derived to represent the variation of wind velocity with height. The most familiar of those is the logarithmic and experimental profiles[5,6]. For structural purpose the experimental or power law profile has been used most widely, This can be stated as: a ae ly Where V, is the velocity at height z above ground and k and q@ are constants. The power law is applicable only on layers extending from the ground up to the height at which the gradient velocity is attained. Above this height the wind velocity is regarded as constant. The exponents L/a corresponding to accumulated experimental results as given in Ref[6]. Its value varies from 1/11.65 to 1/25 depending on the surface characteristics. WIND DATA IN SUDAN The data of the highest wind speeds available in the + Meteorological Department includes records at 23 stations well distributed over the Sudan. The period of continuous records for these stations range from 15 to 48 years which is desirable for parabolistic analysis. The type of recording instrument used in Sudan is the Dines Pressure Tube anermograph MK II with a response frequency ranging from one to 10 seconds. Seven of these instrument are situated at airports while the other sixteen are situated in towns with low rise buildings. The anemometer heights for the different stations are not the same. A profile of the monitoring stations indicating the years of records and anemometer height is given in Table (1). 5. RELIABILITY OF DATA In order-for the wind speed data-to give acceptable results they must be reliable and homogenous. Recording _ instruments —| [—Aar Sudan Engineering Society JOURNAL, November 2001, 47 No.39 )should be adequately maintained and properly situated away from calibrated, well nearby obstructions. | Measured data is considered homogenous when they are exposed to identical conditions averaging time, height above ground and roughness of the surrounding terrain. The Meteorological Department used to have very capable staff in the last decades monitoring the recording instruments. Same type of instrument has been in use for all stations with same averaging time. As the recommended standard instrument height is 10m above ground. the instrument height at each station is adjusted to the standard height by the power law. Appropriate values of the exponent in the power law equation are selected for different exposure of each station. A good effort has been done in collecting, verifying and adjusting the available data. However, if at any time in the future new information is obtained about the quality of measurement, it is possible to be evaluated and the data will be adjusted accordingly. 6. DESIGN WIND SPEED Formerly, it was a common practice to design structures to resist the highest wind ever recorded. Though this provided a yardstick to decide upon the load acting on the structure, it is not reliable as most meteorological records could be broken if the period of record is increased. The theory of extreme values has been successfully used in civil engineering applications. Floods, winds, earthquakes are all variables whose largest value in a sequence may be critical to civil engineering systems. Wind speeds with various mean recurrence intervals can generally be estimated by extreme value analysis of the largest yearly winds. At any given station at which wind records are available over a number of years, a random variable may be defined, which consists of the largest wind speed for every year on record. Using these records cumulative distribution function (C.DE.) of the random variable may be estimated to characterize the probabilistic behaviour of the year wind speeds. The basic design wind speed is defined as the speed corresponding to a specific value Fy of the CDF or equivalently in view of the relation N = M(l- F) in which N = mean recurrence interval. The American National Standard A.S8 specifics that a basic design wind speed corresponding to 50 years mean recurrence interval is to be used in designing all permanent structures,(i.e. to the value F, of the CDF equal to 0.98 or to the probability of exceedence of the basic wind speed in any one year equal to .02. For structures with high degree of hazard to life a 100 year mean recurrence interval (F, = 0.99) is to be used and for structures with small degree of risk to humen life a25 year mean recurrence (Fy = 0.96) may be used. 7. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF THE LARGEST YEARLY WIND SPEED Probabilistic considerations as well as available empirical evidence suggest that the asymptotic probability distributions of the largest values with unlimited upper tail are an appropriate model for the behavior of the largest yearly wind speed. There are two distributions known as Type I and Type Il distribution of the largest values. Type 1 (Gambel) cumulative distribution function; F\(v) is given as follows: F; = expl-exp((v-L/o)] Q) OKV0 == Sudan Engineering Society JOURNAL, November 2001, 47 $3418) — I —Where the parameters 3; estimated from the observed data at each station, The parameter y is-known as the tail length parameter{8] Type Il distribution with small values of tail length parameter results in higher estimates of the extreme wind speeds than a Type I distribution. It can be shown that for values of parameter y equal to 15 or more the two distributions are almost identical{7]. It can also be shown that if V has a Type Il distribution then Z = In V_ has distribution with ye = In o and o This relationship enables use of Type I probability paper for Type Il distribution[9]. 8. ESTIMATION OF THE DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS There are two methods that are generally used to estimate the parameters in Eg. 2 and 3. These are the method of order statistics and method of moments, In the method of order statistics which was developed by Lieblein [9], the values of the cumulative density function Fi(v) corresponding to a series of extreme annual wind speeds, ean be estimated as follows FQX)= mv MEL] eccseseeeeceesveeesel) Where n is the number of years of record and m(v) is the rank of the event, v, in ascending order of magnitudes The inverse function of F(y) is known as the percentage point function (PDF) which gives the value of wind speed v at a selected value F,(v). For Type I extreme value distribution the PPP is: WF) = p+ o y(P) (3) which shows a linear variation between v(F) and the intermediate variable y(F), given by yFi) = = In(- In(F)) (6) Similarly for Type II distribution it can be shown that : , =k Inf; wr T cossssssseedD) In the method of moments the distribution parameters are obtained by replacing the expectation and standard deviation of wind speed records by the corresponding statistics of the sample. In case of Type I distribution, it can be shown that using the principles of expectations of the continuous random variable, the largest annual speed V, the mean value V and the standard deviation s(v) of the V, respectively are[ 10,11]. VF WH OSTIG vtesscessvinnnes (8) SQ)= za/V6 (9) So that a =(¥/6 /) s(vyand w= V-0.57Ra Employing o and 1 values in Eqs (8) and (9) and the fact that y (F) at mean recurrence interval N. is approximately equal to In (N), Eg (5) yields Vw = V—045 s'( v) + 0.78 s(v) In (N) . (10) where y'y is the estimated extreme wind in mean recurrence interval of N years. Under the assumption that ‘the random variables V and S are, asymptotically normally distributed, it can be shown that for large sample of size n the standard deviation of the estimated wind speed is[12]: S[v'y] = 0.78*[1.64 + 1.469(LnN-0.577)+ 1.UM(LaN-.577))]' S/N ..... (11) For N = 50 Eqs (10) & (11) become. vsg= V 42.65 2 (12) S[v' sok B77 SIN esssssiiesssnsiQ13) —I—s Sudan Engineering Society JOURNAL, November 2001, 47 No.39TABLE (1) PROFILE OF WIND STATIONS IN SUDAN start a avemomeren | yearsor | No, oF veans ON No. i HEIGHT (m) RECORDS, OF RECORDS | 1 | sta 12 1861-191 u 2 | Real 1s i961 083 i 3 | Ktwroun to 19611985 5 +] Koma is ibar98r et s ElObied 154 1961 - 1990 30 | o | HiGadaet a 19661998 % to6i—to8a | » eo] ia se toot — 1 a 8 ElDamazin 15.0 | 1962 - 1993 n >| Abana 16 19641993 » ; 1976-1987 0 | AbwHanad 182 tyre 1987 | 1961 ~ 1988 | nf Ata isa 1361-1988 u | Dons 92 1908192 a 3 | Karima 182 19611990 30 | etcine 92 19611987 7 is | vee 7 (961-1550 ” } at | Wadia ira 16) — 1964 a | | Gata Govan 3 19671986 » | BN ira voto | | Rtas 1s os 1967 is 2 | Wow 152 (9611987 7 ai | Ponta ie 1961-1901 n 2 | Wad Mens 152 woos) =| ew nate : 19511979 a =—=( Sudan Engineering Society JOURNAL, November 2001, 47 X32) —TABLE (2) SUMMARY OF RESULTS Noor EXTREME WIND SPEEDS UR) years he vo | stanton | "or" | sore | rece | rwe | NyQheRPe® | sor moments | y2 ox asta) Vas | Veo | Vin Vo [vw | * i | maa [at fw [om | a | [ess ]ous [vas [oor |ea [iw] oa 2 | tos | a3 | oo | om | 1 [© (aaa |mas | aso fare] 2 1s | one | ae Z 97. | 106. | 1, vo, fu | 3. | Knanoum | 33° | 1000 | 094s 7 | HOT MST gs | 103.) 112. | 601 a6 | a6 4 | xessata | 27 | i000 | oss | 1 | | a02 [ere | 742 [are | ee [rar] oss | at 5] oven | 30 [ico | oom fv] [09 [10 Fann Pose] [aes] amr | av 6 | sicataat | 28 [© | oso | 1 | |ave [ors | sis | eso | 966 | 13s] asa | ae | 7 | eakasnir|~30 [i000 |os06 [1 | 97 [aso [one [07 [asa | oa [150 | ose | ae | # | Hbmmin| 32 | @ [ome [1 [7% [e2|e2] 750 ]mo] ws fiae | on | aw > | avaaam [20 | oo | ones [a | © [oor ora [oar [aso | wa [uae | eo | am 10 | Abattamed [16 _[ ooo [over |_| 76 [eae [9a | 705 | 773 | waa [aor | aoe] u[ atea [an | = [ome | 1 | Pros [ 6} | 00] 756 [136 | oar |x @ | pao [a | = [oss | 1 [2 ]ea fone | om |ose| ee Time | ue i> | eaima | 90 | 1000 | ons | 1 | ® [rez [eee Pees [705 | v5 [tm | ave am ] ve | atciem | 27 [ao Fons | 1 2 [2] [ae fone [2% [rar | aos | oe 7 t | ame | a0 | ro | ase | 1 | fez |oen | wales pois fiw | oe Pm i | weave | a1 | woo | ome [1 [sna] as] sis base] wo [uae | ams 7 | omve | ao |e | ons Tous] ana] on fos2]% fa26 | oa | | ewe |v | = [om | a [© [moles fmal esl] ow [a w | woot | as |e | ons | 1] [ora] [oz fore] fuss] om | a Ee CTA | rwnsuaa | a | 3 | ose | or | fous] [ose [roa] ane | 22 | ove | a» a] gt, [a5 [imo [oss [1 [8 Paes Pasa [ass | ser | o09 fie | os | ar w [vowel as | fase] af] 1 Ton | m0 | 2% aan | om | as —i—a2 Sudan Engineering Society JOURNAL, November 2001, 47 No.39)»9, PROBABILISTIC WIND MODEL One major question that faced researchers in the area of wind speed extreme value analysis is the type of probability distribution best suited for modeling the behavior of extreme wind, Thom[13] fitted the wind data for 141 open country stations to extreme value type II distribution and came out with results that gained general acceptance in the United States Standards. Thom(13] also examing extensive non-extreme wind data, indicated that such data follow a long normal distribution quite closely reinforcing the choices of Type I distribution. He then developed new isotach maps for the United States for 2, 10, 25 and 100 year mean recurrence interval. Simiu and Filliban[8] studied the behavior of a 37 year records of highest yearly speeds measured at stations with well behaved climates adopting the probability plot correlation co- efficient test to decide upon the value tail length parameter for the best fitting distribution, He could easily differentiate between the records that fit Type I or Type Il. Simiu[15] provided statistical evidence supporting his assumption that Type I distribution is an appropriate model for the extreme wind speeds. He compared the results of analysis of ample generated by Monte Carlo simulation from a population of Type | distribution and to measured wind speed data samples. He concluded that in a well behaved wind climate, the fact that a series of extreme wind speeds best fit by Type I distribution may be attributed to sampling errors in the estimation of tail length parameter. Simiu and Fillban[8] also showed that Type I distribution of largest wind speeds is an representation of extreme wind behavior in most regimes not subjected to hurricane-prone regime. He also[8] indicated for hurricane prone areas Type II distribution with small value of tail length parameter gives a better estimate of extreme wind speeds. The provisions of the National Building Code of Canada[16] are based on probabilistic behavior of extreme wind modeled by Type I distribution. The American National Standard A 58-1-82[3] and ANSI wind load provisions are based an wind speed contour map deveioped by Simiu[11] for 129 meteorological stations adopting Type | distribution. 10. PROCEDURE FOR ESTIMATING CDF, ITS PARAMETERS AND N- YEAR WINDS The procedure followed to estimate the CDF, its parameters and the corresponding extreme wind speeds is similar to that adopted by Simiu and Filliban®, Based on any given set of observed annual wind speeds, the estimated wind speeds for various mean recurrence intervals, N = 25, 50 and 100 years can be worked out. In the first stage of this procedure the value of the tail length parameter which yields the closest fit to the observed data set is determined. The closest fit criterion used is the maximum probability plot correlation criterion''®) which is definite as: a; -+{40-n0] D=——_4 4... a4 2p mF ago- ta) In which X= © Xin; M(D) = EM(Dy/n; n= sample size and D = probability distribution tested. The quantities X, are obtained by rearrangement of the data set in ascending order Xi, Xz... X,. The quantities M,(D) are obtained in similar manner, Given a random variable X with probability distribution D and given a sample size n, it is possible from probabilistic considerations to drive mathematically the distribution of the smallest, second smallest, . the ith smallest values of X. The location of the distribution of the ith smallest value X, can be measured by the medium M,(D) of the data set generated by distribution D, X; will be approximately equal to M,(D) for all values of i and the plot of X; versus MD) will be approximately linear which will result in a near s==—=(Sudan Engineering Society JOURNAL, November 2001, 47 No 3922unity value in yp. Thus, the better the fit of distribution, D, to the data, the closer rp to unity, The above proceduté is made use of for Type II distribution defined by various values of 7 from 1-25 in steps of 1, from 25-50 in steps of 5, from 50-100 in steps of 10, from 100 to 500 in steps of 50, from 500-1000 in steps of 250 and y = oo, Therefore for any data set 46 probability plot correlation coefficients are computed corresponding to these distributions, and the distribution with the maximum coefficient is chosen as the one which best fits the data. yopr is designated as the best tail length that ‘its the distribution. Estimates of the location and scale parameters follow directly from the basic probability approach. If a least square line is fit to the probability plot corresponding to yorr then the computed intercept and slope of the fitted line serve as estimates for the location and scale parameters jt and oF respectively in terms of Xi: and M,(D). wand o are as follows: ye, - HL 0-H] “=X.-0 M(D) o= - (15) Moy ww (16) In the final stage of this procedure the predicted wind speed Vy for various recurrence intervals WN 50 and 100 years) are estimated Vw is given by: eannncl a: 1 +a Gx7_ (1 -~ in which Yon is the optimal value. y, 1 and o are the estimates of the location and scale parameters as defined before. Gxyop (P) = the percentage point function of the best fitting extreme value distribution of y # 20 and has a small value, Type Il provides the best fit and Gxyops (P) = (In py aeeseseesseee (18) In case y = © or has a large value Type I will govern and Gxyorr (P)= = In ln PY .esseees (ag) Bas ‘The procedure described above is modelled ina computer programme listed in Appendix 1. The input is the observed sets of extreme annual wind speeds for 23 stations after corrections for the slandard anemometer height and terrain exposure. The output is the estimate for CDF, the values of its parameters and the corresponding extreme wind speeds for 25, 50, 100 year return periods. Also included in the program is the analysis of extreme wind speed by method of moment to confirm the results. 11, DISCUSSION OF THE RESULTS Wind records for twenty thre stations well distributed in the Sudan are analyzed; the lengths of each record and the locations and elevations of the wind recording instruments are listed in Table |. The results of the analysis are listed in Table 2, in which the following notations are used: n = sample size, y/crr is the value of the tail length y for which the distributional fit of the largest values is determined, s = sample standard deviation in miles per hour, Vaux is the sample maximum in miles per hour, V, = estimated extreme wind corresponding to n-years retum period based on Type I distribution in miles per hour and V2s, Vio, Vioo are the estimated 25, 50 and 100 year speed respectively in miles per hour. As shown on table all the 23 stations are best modelled by Type I distribution as the tail Jength y is infinity for 9 stations and 1000 for the rest of stations. Simiu[8] showed that ifa variate X has Type | distribution, the mode of the largest value in sample n values is very nearly equal to the value of the variate corresponding to the mean return period n, Table 2 shows that for all stations the sample maximum does not differ much from the estimated value of variate with mean return period n and the ratio Via/Vn is close to unity. ‘These results are logical since most regions in Sudan are not subjected to hurricane force-winds though some thunderstorms with relatively high speeds for short duration covering small areas develop in central Sudan during the rainy seasons. Table 2 also inchides the estimated wind speeds for return periods 25, 50 and 100 year calculated for by both methods of order statistics and method of moments. The results by both methods are almost identical and the largest Sudan Engineering Society JOURNAL, November 2001, 47 No,39 =difference is within 5%. Consequently both methods can be considered for probabilistic analysis of maximum wind speeds The ratio s/X gives the variation of the largest wind speeds. This is important in structural liability calculations of load factors. If the results indicate that the variation of the ratio s/X in one site is large, a larger load factor for wind sensitive structures is to be considered, The American National standard specifies that a basic design speed corresponding to 50 year mean recurrence interval to be used for all Permanent structures while speed corsesponding to 100 year recurrence intervals is to be used for structures with high degree of hazard to life and structures having no human occupants or there is negligible rist to life a 25 year mean recurrence may be used. Therefore Isotach maps of Sudan corresponding to 25, 50, 100 year recurrence intervals are developed and presented in Figs 1, and 3 12. CONCLUSIONS A. statistical analysis based on probability distribution for 23 stations in the Sudan is presented. The analysis revealed that the probabilistic behaviour of the largest annual winds in all stations can be described by Type 1 extreme distribution. This is true as most of these stations are not subjected to. hurricane force-winds. Isotach maps for 25, 50 and 100 year recurrence intervals are presented for use as specified in the American National Standard procedure REFERENCE: 1. Devenport, 4G, “Rationale for Determining Design Wind Velocities” Journal of the Structural Division, AS Vol. 86, No. ST4, Proc, Paper 24 April 1960, pp. 49-68. 2. Delsi, M, “Wind and wind Loading, in the Semi-arid Belt of Central Africa, Sudan — Meteorological Department, RSBCA letter No 10 pp. 37-51 3.4 Wehid Hago “Wind Speed Predications at 21 Weather Stations in Sudan" Proceedings of the Second Arab Conference on Structural Engineering, Amman, Jordan, 19-22 (April) 1987. 4 Salih AMA “Wind Forces on Structures”, Sudan Engineering Society Journal No.23, Jan 1978 pp. 23-29, American National Standard Building Code Requirements for Minimum Design Loads in Buildings and Other Structures, A581 New York; American National Standard Institute 1981. 6. “Wind Loading and Wind-Induced Structural Response”, Report by the Committee on Wind Effects of the Committee on Dynamic Effects of the ‘Structural Division, American Society of Civil Engineers, New York, 1987. 7. Simiu, E, “Logarithmic Profiles and Design Wind Speeds”, Journal of the Engineering Mechanics Division, ASCE Vol 99 Oct. 1973, pp. 1073-1083. 8. Sherlock RH. and MB, Stout, “Wind Structures in Wind Storms”, Journal of Aeronotical Sciences Vol. 5 NO.2, Dec. 1937, pp 53-61. 9. SimiuE and Filliban, J.J, “Probability Distributions of Extreme Wind Speeds”, Journal of the Structural Division, ASCE, Vol, 102, No. 579, Proc. Paper 12381, Sept. 1976, pp. 1861-1877. 10, Benyamin, JR, and Cornell, C.A., “Probability, Statistics, and Decision for Civil Engineers”, New York; McGraw- Hill, 1970. 11. Lieblein, J. “A New Method of Analyzing Extreme Value Data”, National Bureau af — Standards,Report No. 2190, Washington, D.G. 1953, imiu, E, Changery, M.J. and Tilliben, Extreme wind Speed at 129 Stations in the Contiguous United States, NBS Building Science Series 118, U.S. Dept, of Commerce. Washington, D.C. National Bureau of Standards, March 1979. 13, Simiu, E, and Scanlan, R. “Wind Effects on Structures", Second Edition, New York; Wiley-Interscience Publications, 1986. 14, Thom, H.CS., “Distribution of Extreme Winds in the United States" Journal of the Structural Division ASCE, Vol. 86, No. ST4, April 1960 pp. 11-24. Mw s====(Sudan Engineering Society JOURNAL, November 2001 47 No. se15. Thom, H.CS, “New Distribution of Extreme Winds Speeds in the United States’, Journal of the Structural Division, ASCE, Vol 94, No. S17, Proc. Paper 6038, July, 1968, pp. 1787-1801 16 Simiu, E, Bietry, J and Filliben, JJ, “Sampling Errors in the Estimation of Extreme Winds”, Journal of the Structural Division, ASCE Yo. 100 No ST3, March 1978. 17. Canadian Structural Design Manual, Supplement No.4, National Building Code of Canada, National Research Council of Canada, 18. Filliban, JJ, “The probability Plot Correlation Coefficient Test for Normality” Technometrics, Vol. 17, No. I Feb. 1975, pp. 111-117. 19. Gambel, E.J. “Statistics of Extremes”, Columbia University Press, New York, N.Y, 1958. Ba Sudan Engineering Society JOURNAL, November 2001, 47 No39 mmm4,00) eS " ig 22.00 24.00 26.00 28.00 30,00 32.00 834.00 36.00 = 38.00 Fig. (1) Isotachs, in mph, Annual Fastest-Mile, 10 m Above Ground with 25-Year Mean Reoccurrence Interval s==—(Sudan Engineering Society JOURNAL, November 2001, 47 No3i§26)—_—4.00) 2200 26.00 26.00 28.00 30.00 3200 314.00 3.00 38.00 Fig. (2) Isotachs, in mph, Annual Fastest-Mile, 10 m Above Ground with S0-Year Mean Reoccurrence Interval —e—2° Sudan Engineering Society JOURNAL, November 2001, 47No.39 =290, GW | Taran 20.0 | %, % omen 18:00) o pe 00" os ala neantae %. Da wo Of jue é o « ce i G,coue feo, os 12.00 G onan? Bey ns SOUT acy ‘oun ¥ % 10.0 \ paaggd” eee f a0 < » 80.00 he * ‘ * wear , ohne 6.00} XY N Ooms Ae scm} oo 40 Nite —_ 22.00 74.00 26.00 28.00 30.00 32,00 34.00 36,00 38.00 Fig. (3) Tsotachs, in mph, Annudl Fastest-Mile, 10 m Above Ground with 100-Year Mean Reoccurrence Interval (Sudan Engineering Society JOURNAL, November 2001, 47 103928 )—