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08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa 08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa
There are many experiments with repeated trials A binomial experiment is a probability experiment
and in each trial can expect only one outcome out of g four outcomes
that satisfies following
two possible outcomes.
Each trial can have only two outcomes (considered as a
Example success or a failure)
Tossing a Coin
Rolling a die (expecting a value ≤ 3) There must be a fixed number of trials
Loosing a game
Answer for a MCQ question The outcomes off each trial must be independent off each
other
Number of successes in n trials is a random variable
having a Binomial distribution The probability of a success must remain the same for
each trial
08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa 08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa
X ~ Bin(n, p) Example:
A fair coin is tossed three times. Using binomial distribution find
The probability distribution function is given as the probability of getting exactly two heads.
n
P ( X x) b x; n, p p x 1 p
n x
; x = 0,1,…, n Let X be the number of heads received form tossing the coin three
x times.
When n = 1, the distribution is called the Bernoulli distribution 3
P( X 2) 0.5 1 0.5 0.375
2 3 2
2
08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa 08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa
08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa 08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa
Fitting a binomial distribution The number of trial on which the kth success
If we assume that the data have been taken from the
binomial distribution, we can fit the distribution using occurs is a random variable having a
observed frequencies
negative binomial distribution.
Example:
In 103 litters of 4 mice, the number of litters which
contained 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, female were noted. The figures are Definition:
given below A random variable X has a negative
g binomial
No. of female mice 0 1 2 3 4 Total distribution and it is referred as a negative
No. of litters 8 32 34 24 5 103 binomial random variable if and only if:
If the chance of obtaining a female in a single trial is
assumed constant, estimate this value. Fit the distribution
and calculate the expected frequencies
08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa 08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa
Example: If the probability is 0.40 that a child When a table of binomial probabilities is
expose to a certain contagions disease will available the determination of negative
available,
catch it. What is the probability that the tenth binomial probabilities can generally be
child exposed to the disease will be the third simplified by making use of the identity
to catch it?
k
b* (x;k,θ)= b(k;x,θ)
x
08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa 08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa
The mean and the variance of the negative Since negative binomial distribution with k=1
binomial distribution are has many important application,
application It is given a
special name “Geometric distribution”.
k k1 Definition
μ= and σ 2 = -1 A random variable X has a geometric distribution
θ θθ and it is referred to as a geometric random
variable
i bl if and d only
l if it
its probability
b bilit di
distribution
t ib ti iis
given by,
g(x;θ)=θ(1-θ) x-1 for x=1,2,3,...
08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa 08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa
Example: If the probability is 0.75 that an For sampling without replacement, the number
applicant for a driver’s licence will pass the of successes in n trials is a random variable
road on any given try, what is the probability having a hypergeometric distribution with the
that can applicant will finally pass the test on parameters n, N and M.
the fourth try?
08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa 08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa
Note: When N is large and n is relatively Among the 120 applicants for a job, only 80
small compared to N (n should not exceed 5 are actually qualified
qualified. If 5 of the applicants
percent of N), there is not much difference are randomly selected for an in-depth
between sampling without replacement, and interview, find the probability that only two of
the formula for the binomial distribution with the five will be qualified for the job by using,
the parameters n and may be used to The formula for the hypergeometric distribution
approximate hypergeometric probabilities.
probabilities The formula for the binomial distribution with as
an approximation
08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa 08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa
08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa 08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa
08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa 08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa
The mean and the variance of the Poisson Although the Poisson distribution has been derived as a limiting
form of the binomial distribution, it has many applications that have
distribution are given by
by, no direct connection with binomial distributions.
μλ and σ2 λ Poisson can serve as a model for the number of successes that
occur during a given time interval or a special region when,
The number of successes occurring in non-overlapping time
intervals or regions is independent.
The probability of single success occurring in a very short time
08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa 08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa
Example: The average number of trucks Note: If in a situation where the preceding conditions
apply, successes occur at a mean rate of α per unit time
arriving on any day at a truck depot in a
or per unit region, then the number of successes in an
certain city is known to be 12. What is the interval of t units of time or t units of specified region is a
probability that on a given day fewer than 9 Poisson random variable with the mean X = αt.
trucks will arrive at this depot? Therefore, the number of successes X, in a time interval
of length t units or a region of size t units has the
Poisson distribution.
e αt .(α t) x
p(x; αt) for x 0,1,2,...
x!
08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa 08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa
Example: A certain kind of sheet metal has, An immediate generalization of the binomial
on the average five defects for 10 square distribution arises when
when,
feet. If we assume a Poisson distribution, Each trial has more than two possible outcomes.
what is the probability that a 15 square feet The probabilities of the respective outcomes are
sheet of the metal will have at least six the same for each trial.
defects? The trials are all independent
08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa 08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa
08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa 08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa
Multinomial Distribution
x
08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa 08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa
1 x
e for x 0
g ( x; )
0 elsewhere
where 0
08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa 08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa
08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa 08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa
08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa 08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa
08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa 08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa
08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa 08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa
08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa 08/04/2018 M.Sc. IT, PGIS- Prof. R.D. Yapa