PROMEDIO SIMPLE

MES HH
1 100
2 200
3 300
4 400
5 500
6 600
7 500
8 533.333333
PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO
MES HH wi-1 0.5
1 100 wi-2 0.3
2 200 wi-2 0.2
3 300
4 400
5 500
6 600
7 530
8 545
9 551.5
PROM MOVIL PONDERADO PRONOSTICO
MES HH
1 19.39
2 18.96
3 18.2
4 17.89 18.666 0.602176
5 18.43 18.197 0.054289
6 19.98 18.222 3.090564
7 19.51 19.097 0.170569
8 20.63 19.435 1.428025
9 19.78 20.164 0.147456
10 21.25 19.981 1.610361
11 21.18 20.685 0.245025
12 22.14 20.921 1.485961
8.834426
0.98160289
wi-1 0.5
wi-2 0.3
wi-2 0.2
wi 1
 Pronostico Error medio Error medio
cuadrado cuadrado
t3 manual con fórmula
Enero 1 19.39
Febrero 2 18.96
Marzo 3 18.2
Abril 4 17.89 18.4674818 0.33348518
Mayo 5 18.43 17.999094 0.18567999
Junio 6 19.98 18.239916 3.02789237
Julio 7 19.51 19.4344212 0.00571215
Agosto 8 20.63 19.6754081 0.91124562
Septiembre 9 19.78 20.2357692 0.20772554
Octubre 10 21.25 20.0791578 1.37087146
Noviembre 11 21.18 20.7325778 0.20018659
Diciembre 12 22.14 21.2046171 0.8749412
13 21.80 7.11774011 7.11774011
14 21.92 0.79086001 0.79086001
 Chart Title
25

wi-1 0.64802552
20
wi-2 0.35197349
wi-3 0
Suma W 0.99999901 15

10

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
12 14 16
 Prueba1

0.5
0.3
0.2

Page 8
 b
Mes x y xi^2 xi*yi sxi*sy1
Enero 1 19.39 18.1021795 1 19.39
Febrero 2 18.96 18.4069347 4 37.92
Marzo 3 18.2 18.71169 9 54.6
Abril 4 17.89 19.0164452 16 71.56
Mayo 5 18.43 19.3212005 25 92.15
Junio 6 19.98 19.6259557 36 119.88
Julio 7 19.51 19.930711 49 136.57
Agosto 8 20.63 20.2354662 64 165.04
Septiembre 9 19.78 20.5402214 81 178.02
Octubre 10 21.25 20.8449767 100 212.5
Noviembre 11 21.18 21.1497319 121 232.98
Diciembre 12 22.14 21.4544872 144 265.68
suma 78 237.34 650 1586.29 18512.52
promedio 6.5 19.7783333
ERROR
N 12
b 0.30475524
a 17.7974242
ERR 0.49667776
 Chart Title
25

20 f(x) = 0.3047552448x + 17.7974242424

R² = 0.6902437751

15

10

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

0.70475369
 b
Mes x y lny Ypi xi^2 xi*yi
Enero 1 19.39 2.96475747 18.1517923 1 2.96475747
Febrero 2 18.96 2.9423315 18.4304151 4 5.88466299
Marzo 3 18.2 2.90142159 18.7133147 9 8.70426478
Abril 4 17.89 2.8842419 19.0005566 16 11.5369676
Mayo 5 18.43 2.91397977 19.2922076 25 14.5698989
Junio 6 19.98 2.99473177 19.5883353 36 17.9683906
Julio 7 19.51 2.97092715 19.8890085 49 20.7964901
Agosto 8 20.63 3.02674633 20.1942969 64 24.2139706
Septiembre 9 19.78 2.98467133 20.5042713 81 26.8620419
Octubre 10 21.25 3.0563569 20.8190037 100 30.563569
Noviembre 11 21.18 3.05305734 21.1385672 121 33.5836307
Diciembre 12 22.14 3.09738593 21.4630358 144 37.1686311
suma 78 237.34 35.790609 650 234.817276
promedio 6.5 19.7783333 2.98255075
ERROR
N
b
Ln a
ERR
a
 sxi*sy1 Chart Title
25

20 f(x) = 17.8773816271 exp( 0.0152329893 x )

R² = 0.6809470409

15

10
0.30475524 17.7974242
0.01523299 2.88353632
5

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

18512.52

12
0.01523299
2.88353632
0.47592151
17.8773816
12 14
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.8308091087
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.6902437751
R^2 ajustado 0.6592681526
Error típico 0.7720189829
Observaciones 12

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Regresión 1 13.2812335664
Residuos 10 5.9601331002
Total 11 19.2413666667

Coeficientes Error típico

Intercepción 17.7974242424 0.4751448384
x 0.3047552448 0.0645594706

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico y Residuos

1 18.1021794872 1.2878205128
2 18.4069347319 0.5530652681
3 18.7116899767 -0.5116899767
4 19.0164452214 -1.1264452214
5 19.3212004662 -0.8912004662
6 19.625955711 0.354044289
7 19.9307109557 -0.4207109557
8 20.2354662005 0.3945337995
9 20.5402214452 -0.7602214452
10 20.84497669 0.40502331
11 21.1497319347 0.0302680653
12 21.4544871795 0.6855128205
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F
13.2812335664 22.2834513 0.000815779
0.59601331

Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95,0%

37.456840115 4.38179E-12 16.7387355677 18.856112917 16.738735568
4.7205350647 0.000815779 0.16090778 0.4486027095 0.16090778

Residuos estándares
1.749539297
0.7513542537
-0.6951447917
-1.5303065615
-1.2107201443
0.4809788246
-0.5715473099
0.5359849291
-1.0327815714
0.5502352153
0.0411199923
0.9312878667
 x Gráfico de los residuales

Residuos
1.5
1
0.5
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
-0.5
-1
-1.5 x

Superior 95,0% x Curva de regresión ajustada

18.8561129171 25
0.4486027095 20
y

15

10

0
0 2 4 6 y 8 10 12 14
x Pronóstico y
 12 14

14
 Alfa 0.4 0.153846154 n
Demanda Pronóstico
Enero 1 19.39 19.3900
Febrero 2 18.96 19.3900
Marzo 3 18.2 19.2180
Abril 4 17.89 18.8108
Mayo 5 18.43 18.4425
Junio 6 19.98 18.4375
Julio 7 19.51 19.0545
Agosto 8 20.63 19.2367
Septiembre 9 19.78 19.7940
Octubre 10 21.25 19.7884
Noviembre 11 21.18 20.3730
Diciembre 12 22.14 20.6958

MSE ERROR 1.04278

ANÁLISIS DE DATOS CON EXCEL
PRONÓSTICO ERROR TÍPICO
#N/A #N/A
19.39 #N/A
19.132 #N/A
18.5728 #N/A
18.16312 0.7117443
18.323248 0.68460811
19.3172992 1.04598725
19.4329197 0.97522403
20.1511679 1.18532163
19.9284671 0.73209755
20.7213869 1.05154108
20.9965547 0.8355718
12
Suavización exponencial
25

20
Valor

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5
Real 6 7 8 9
Pronóstico10 11 12
Punto de datos
11 12
 alfa 0.4 beta 0.8 n

X Lt Tt P(t+1)
0 Dt 17.797 0.3048
Enero 1 19.39 18.617 0.7169 18.102
Febrero 2 18.96 19.184 0.5971 19.334
Marzo 3 18.2 19.149 0.0910 19.782
Abril 4 17.89 18.700 -0.3410 19.240
Mayo 5 18.43 18.387 -0.3183 18.359
Junio 6 19.98 18.833 0.2932 18.069
Julio 7 19.51 19.280 0.4159 19.127
Agosto 8 20.63 20.070 0.7148 19.696
Septiembre 9 19.78 20.383 0.3934 20.784
Octubre 10 21.25 20.966 0.5451 20.776
Noviembre 11 21.18 21.378 0.4393 21.511
Diciembre 12 22.14 21.947 0.5424 21.818

MSE 1.02041658
12

Dt
25

20

15

10

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
 a 108.444343 98
b -0.21383375 Media Movil

Pronostico
Dato
Año X Lineal Yi-Yi-1 Yi/Yi-1 Y/T 12
original T
Consecutivo Horas
2002 1 1 2002M1 100.3 108.230509 0.7 1.00697906 0.926725756
2002 2 2 2002M2 101 108.016675 -5 0.95049505 0.935040817
2002 3 3 2002M3 96 107.802841 10.1 1.10520833 0.890514562
2002 4 4 2002M4 106.1 107.589008 6.2 1.05843544 0.986160226
2002 5 5 2002M5 112.3 107.375174 -9.4 0.91629564 1.045865595
2002 6 6 2002M6 102.9 107.16134 12 1.11661808 0.960234353 0.9485206
2002 7 7 2002M7 114.9 106.947506 -49 0.57354221 1.074358852 0.9500806
2002 8 8 2002M8 65.9 106.733673 38.8 1.58877086 0.617424646 0.9515815
2002 9 9 2002M9 104.7 106.519839 11.4 1.10888252 0.982915495 0.9599635
2002 10 10 2002M10 116.1 106.306005 -9.6 0.91731266 1.092130214 0.9565757
2002 11 11 2002M11 106.5 106.092171 -14.7 0.86197183 1.003844098 0.9558472
2002 12 12 2002M12 91.8 105.878338 8.1 1.08823529 0.867032881 0.9613955
2003 1 13 2003M1 99.9 105.664504 0.6 1.00600601 0.94544522 0.9633569
2003 2 14 2003M2 100.5 105.45067 3.8 1.03781095 0.953052266 0.9654243
2003 3 15 2003M3 104.3 105.236836 -5 0.95206136 0.99109783 0.9690495
2003 4 16 2003M4 99.3 105.023003 9.4 1.09466264 0.945507152 0.9684088
2003 5 17 2003M5 108.7 104.809169 -1.3 0.98804048 1.037123005 0.9704017
2003 6 18 2003M6 107.4 104.595335 7.2 1.06703911 1.026814437 0.9738902
2003 7 19 2003M7 114.6 104.381501 -47.7 0.58376963 1.097895687 0.971163
2003 8 20 2003M8 66.9 104.167668 39.8 1.59491779 0.642233829 0.9758167
2003 9 21 2003M9 106.7 103.953834 5.8 1.05435801 1.026417171 0.9840495
2003 10 22 2003M10 112.5 103.74 -6.1 0.94577778 1.084441874 0.9876495
2003 11 23 2003M11 106.4 103.526166 -12.5 0.8825188 1.027759492 0.9885145
2003 12 24 2003M12 93.9 103.312332 0.2 1.00212993 0.908894396 0.9940969
2004 1 25 2004M1 94.1 103.098499 9.7 1.10308183 0.912719401 0.9954205
2004 2 26 2004M2 103.8 102.884665 8.1 1.07803468 1.00889671 0.9970183
2004 3 27 2004M3 111.9 102.670831 -10.6 0.90527256 1.089890854 0.9999228
2004 4 28 2004M4 101.3 102.456997 5.8 1.05725568 0.988707482 0.9963668
2004 5 29 2004M5 107.1 102.243164 4.5 1.04201681 1.047502797 0.9986261
2004 6 30 2004M6 111.6 102.02933 1.8 1.01612903 1.093803125 0.9995626
2004 7 31 2004M7 113.4 101.815496 -46.2 0.59259259 1.113779377 1.0009238
2004 8 32 2004M8 67.2 101.601662 40.4 1.60119048 0.6614065 0.9993362
2004 9 33 2004M9 107.6 101.387829 -2.2 0.9795539 1.061271371 0.9933397
2004 10 34 2004M10 105.4 101.173995 1.1 1.01043643 1.041769676 0.9980423
2004 11 35 2004M11 106.5 100.960161 -13.8 0.87042254 1.054871532 0.9981994
2004 12 36 2004M12 92.7 100.746327 0.7 1.00755124 0.920132796 0.9959429
2005 1 37 2005M1 93.4 100.532494 5.9 1.06316916 0.929052852 0.9891066
2005 2 38 2005M2 99.3 100.31866 2.6 1.02618328 0.989845758 0.9908712
2005 3 39 2005M3 101.9 100.104826 2.5 1.02453386 1.017932939 0.992493
2005 4 40 2005M4 104.4 99.8909925 0.2 1.00191571 1.04513928 0.9941606
2005 5 41 2005M5 104.6 99.6771587 1.5 1.01434034 1.049387857 1.0000949
2005 6 42 2005M6 106.1 99.463325 -3.7 0.96512724 1.066724846 1.0055789
2005 7 43 2005M7 102.4 99.2494912 -34.8 0.66015625 1.031743324 1.0138163
2005 8 44 2005M8 67.6 99.0356575 39.2 1.57988166 0.682582433 1.0207556
2005 9 45 2005M9 106.8 98.8218237 -2.1 0.98033708 1.080732939 1.0395618
2005 10 46 2005M10 104.7 98.60799 6.1 1.0582617 1.061780085 1.0332101
2005 11 47 2005M11 110.8 98.3941562 -14 0.87364621 1.126083136 1.0442736
2005 12 48 2005M12 96.8 98.1803225 3.9 1.04028926 0.985940946 1.0536798
2006 1 49 2006M1 100.7 97.9664887 4.2 1.04170804 1.027902513 1.0635466
2006 2 50 2006M2 104.9 97.752655 16.4 1.15633937 1.073116633 1.065146
2006 3 51 2006M3 121.3 97.5388212 -27 0.77741138 1.243607401 1.0675469
2006 4 52 2006M4 94.3 97.3249875 20.5 1.2173913 0.968918696 1.071733
2006 5 53 2006M5 114.8 97.1111537 -0.5 0.9956446 1.182150511 1.0742458
2006 6 54 2006M6 114.3 96.89732 -3.1 0.97287839 1.179599188 1.0723544
2006 7 55 2006M7 111.2 96.6834862 -43.5 0.60881295 1.150144708 1.0776283
2006 8 56 2006M8 67.7 96.4696525 39.1 1.57754801 0.7017751 1.0801266
2006 9 57 2006M9 106.8 96.2558187 0 1 1.109543313 1.0773987
2006 10 58 2006M10 106.8 96.041985 4 1.03745318 1.112013668 1.0838944
2006 11 59 2006M11 110.8 95.8281512 -18.7 0.83122744 1.156236435 1.082778
2006 12 60 2006M12 92.1 95.6143175 12 1.13029316 0.963244861 1.0777663
2007 1 61 2007M1 104.1 95.4004837 0.9 1.00864553 1.091189436 1.0791398
2007 2 62 2007M2 105 95.18665 10 1.0952381 1.103095865 1.0828677
2007 3 63 2007M3 115 94.9728162 -15.8 0.8626087 1.210872801 1.0841548
2007 4 64 2007M4 99.2 94.7589825 11.3 1.11391129 1.046866454 1.0900863
2007 5 65 2007M5 110.5 94.5451487 -4.9 0.95565611 1.16875378 1.0952393
2007 6 66 2007M6 105.6 94.331315 4.2 1.03977273 1.119458581 1.0980798
2007 7 67 2007M7 109.8 94.1174812 -39.7 0.63843352 1.166627055 1.1014909
2007 8 68 2007M8 70.1 93.9036475 35.3 1.50356633 0.746509873 1.1090761
2007 9 69 2007M9 105.4 93.6898137 5.2 1.04933586 1.124988895 1.0956455
2007 10 70 2007M10 110.6 93.47598 3 1.02712477 1.183191661 1.1091012
2007 11 71 2007M11 113.6 93.2621462 -20.8 0.81690141 1.218071904 1.1075602
2007 12 72 2007M12 92.8 93.0483125 12.3 1.1325431 0.99733136 1.1054466
2008 1 73 2008M1 105.1 92.8344787 5.5 1.05233111 1.132122477 1.1072612
2008 2 74 2008M2 110.6 92.620645 -13.6 0.87703436 1.194118223 1.102896
2008 3 75 2008M3 97 92.4068112 14.4 1.14845361 1.049706171 1.0985857
2008 4 76 2008M4 111.4 92.1929775 -5.6 0.9497307 1.208334984 1.0881689
2008 5 77 2008M5 105.8 91.9791437 -5.4 0.9489603 1.150260762 1.0669676
2008 6 78 2008M6 100.4 91.76531 8.4 1.08366534 1.094095362 1.0533915
2008 7 79 2008M7 108.8 91.5514762 -45.4 0.58272059 1.188402465 1.0307784
2008 8 80 2008M8 63.4 91.3376425 34.4 1.54258675 0.694127835 1.0051126
2008 9 81 2008M9 97.8 91.1238087 -1.6 0.98364008 1.07326506 0.9948106
2008 10 82 2008M10 96.2 90.909975 -8.8 0.90852391 1.058189709 0.9655231
2008 11 83 2008M11 87.4 90.6961412 -11.9 0.86384439 0.963657316 0.9459991
2008 12 84 2008M12 75.5 90.4823075 2.2 1.02913907 0.83441727 0.9376914
2009 1 85 2009M1 77.7 90.2684737 2.1 1.02702703 0.860765634 0.9279983
2009 2 86 2009M2 79.8 90.05464 3.4 1.04260652 0.886128688 0.9227236
2009 3 87 2009M3 83.2 89.8408062 -6.4 0.92307692 0.926082517 0.9107296
2009 4 88 2009M4 76.8 89.6269725 5.1 1.06640625 0.856884907 0.9056503
2009 5 89 2009M5 81.9 89.4131387 6.8 1.08302808 0.915972766 0.9073266
2009 6 90 2009M6 88.7 89.199305 6.7 1.07553551 0.994402367 0.9136215
2009 7 91 2009M7 95.4 88.9854712 -39.4 0.5870021 1.072085125 0.9117294
2009 8 92 2009M8 56 88.7716375 26.3 1.46964286 0.630832117 0.9139905
2009 9 93 2009M9 82.3 88.5578037 5.8 1.07047388 0.929336507 0.9224659
2009 10 94 2009M10 88.1 88.34397 -1.4 0.98410897 0.997238408 0.9267721
2009 11 95 2009M11 86.7 88.1301362 -6.7 0.92272203 0.98377245 0.934017
2009 12 96 2009M12 80 87.9163025 -6.5 0.91875 0.909956376 0.9400305
2010 1 97 2010M1 73.5 87.7024687 6.4 1.08707483 0.838060787 0.9368975
2010 2 98 2010M2 79.9 87.488635 9.8 1.12265332 0.913261477 0.9419423
2010 3 99 2010M3 89.7 87.2748012 -10.6 0.88182832 1.027788076 0.9435749
2010 4 100 2010M4 79.1 87.0609675 8 1.1011378 0.908558707 0.9400376
2010 5 101 2010M5 87.1 86.8471337 5.3 1.0608496 1.002911625 0.9447362
2010 6 102 2010M6 92.4 86.6333 -3 0.96753247 1.066564474 0.9429152
2010 7 103 2010M7 89.4 86.4194662 -29.8 0.66666667 1.034489148 0.9465863
2010 8 104 2010M8 59.6 86.2056325 22 1.36912752 0.691370138
2010 9 105 2010M9 81.6 85.9917987 0.3 1.00367647 0.948927703
2010 10 106 2010M10 81.9 85.777965 7.1 1.08669109 0.954790662
2010 11 107 2010M11 89 85.5641312 -13.2 0.85168539 1.04015548
2010 12 108 2010M12 75.8 85.3502975 -0.7 0.99076517 0.888104696
2011 1 109 2011M1 75.1 85.1364637 0.882113218

Promedio -0.2333 1.01828114

Desvest 17.8989 0.20840343
Coef variacio -76.709 0.20466198
Modelo
Multiplicativ
o
-0.2138 108.444343
 8.1666666667 IP=a+bX
Media Movil

Promedio I Normalizar Pronostico

I centrado I mensual Mensuales It Y=T*It

103.67189437 MSE 53.2533070948

108.68453001
114.45084166 130
106.40410084 120
113.95919343
110
0.9500609129 1.0107081979 1.0592424373 1.0600623019 113.59769676
100
0.9538751957 1.1263096644 1.1056084792 1.1064642316 118.33359034
0.9560402413 0.6458144957 0.6671640669 0.6676804588 71.263987431 90
0.9574621192 1.0265842115 1.0408080067 1.0416136029 110.95251302 80
0.9579394641 1.1400827035 1.0720285224 1.0728582836 114.05127806 70
0.9601998621 1.0454532832 1.0574444678 1.0582629407 112.27341314
60
0.9633922539 0.8999790869 0.9163127883 0.9170220239 97.092767346
0.9659435787 0.9787789275 0.9571396688 0.9578805048 101.2139682 50

2002M1
2002M4
2002M7

2003M4
2003M7

2004M1
2004M4

2004M10
2002M10
2003M1

2003M10

2004M7

2005M1
2005M4
2005M7
2005M10
2006M1
0.9676275376 0.9849371054 1.0054046943 1.006182888 106.10265968
0.969286669 1.0225022806 1.0608470306 1.0616681372 111.72659591
Column E Moving average (Co
0.9709002403 0.9738458318 0.9882218372 0.9889867311 103.86635594
0.9718183261 1.0671984431 1.0604970597 1.0613178954 111.2358464
0.97362333 1.0546321202 11.990719059 12 110.87757159
0.9770097647 1.1237305158 115.49439758
0.9825052591 0.6536696099 69.550716032
0.9867378465 1.040212631 108.2797273
0.9900869801 1.0952996006 111.29831834
0.9926773182 1.0353409641 109.55790514
0.9955119029 0.9129919923 94.739684244
0.9974538629 0.9150492416 98.75604203
0.9977692705 1.011152317 103.52078936
0.9983052161 1.0917411197 109.00235015
0.9981851673 0.9905050829 101.32861104
0.9997041643 1.0478127774 108.51249937
0.999940856 1.0938678208 108.15744642
0.9978665388 1.1161606626 112.65520482
0.9969060647 0.6634592 67.837444634
0.9965271464 1.0649698552 105.60694159
0.9973948847 1.0444906948 108.54535862
0.9944162938 1.0607946983 106.84239714
0.9919735605 0.9275779442 92.386601142
0.9908236007 0.9376571683 96.298115861
0.9925082648 0.9973173954 100.93891903
0.9955828087 1.0224492932 106.2781044
0.9999447577 1.0451970194 98.790866134
1.0064966859 1.0426143192 105.78915234
1.0133835938 1.0526367825 105.43732124
1.0247112327 1.0068625102 109.81601207
1.0311758092 0.6619457385 66.124173235
1.0390151573 1.0401512733 102.93415587
1.0437211688 1.0173024337 105.79239889
1.053833346 1.0685590279 104.12688914
1.0607908014 0.9294395694 90.033518039
1.0654131465 0.9647924063 93.840189693
1.0681419416 1.0046573319 98.357048706
1.0711751987 1.1609747898 103.55385865
1.0727777209 0.9031868182 96.253121233
1.0747428358 1.0999380237 103.06580531
1.0767031156 1.0955658725 102.71719607
1.0783845476 1.0665441285 106.97681931
1.0804732251 0.6495071636 64.410901837
1.0813570147 1.0260656728 100.26137015
1.0814795264 1.028233675 103.03943917
1.0798946656 1.0706937188 101.41138113
1.0799245687 0.8919556878 87.680434937
1.0820540883 1.0084425976 91.382263524
1.0857029313 1.0160199749 95.77517838
1.0898267936 1.1110690322 100.8296129
1.0944684591 0.9565067367 93.715376332
1.0982699871 1.0641771095 100.34245828
1.1028822621 1.0150299985 99.997070902
1.102070839 1.0585771932 104.13762656
1.1046076239 0.6758145221 62.697630438
1.1041023151 1.0189172501 97.588584434
1.1073693233 1.0684706863 100.28647944
1.1067559669 1.1005785738 98.695873133
1.1052012489 0.9023979665 85.327351835
1.1029142916 1.0264827335 88.924337355
1.0965501853 1.0889772662 93.193308055
1.0845740638 0.9678510727 98.105367143
1.0695093241 1.1298031323 91.177631431
1.0503791707 1.0950909867 97.619111246
1.0297608244 1.062475223 97.27694573
1.0102338791 1.1763637008 101.2984338
0.9884821217 0.7022158716 60.98435904
0.9687776293 1.1078549164 94.915798717
0.9497378774 1.1141913306 97.533519718
0.9372295904 1.0281977069 95.980365131
0.929471089 0.8977334314 82.974268732
0.920483822 0.9351230442 86.466411186
0.9130345006 0.9705314396 90.611437729
0.9079021473 1.0200245921 95.38112139
0.9088661178 0.9428065261 88.63988653
0.9108924899 1.0055772511 94.895764216
0.9131137968 1.0890234826 94.556820559
0.9160619496 1.1703194582 98.459241048
0.9210761759 0.684885934 59.271087641
0.9277516819 1.001708243 92.243012999
0.9336065364 1.0681570548 94.780559993
0.936981675 1.0499377692 93.264857129
0.939623457 0.968426628 80.62118563
0.9408049359 0.8907912315 84.008485017
0.9418516434 0.9696447242 88.029567403
0.9427829345 1.0901640643 92.656875637
0.9425630347 0.9639235501 86.102141629
0.9447459175 1.0615675668 92.172417185
91.836695388
95.620048292
57.557816243
89.570227282
92.027600269
90.549349128
78.268102528
 2003M4
2003M7
2003M10

Column E
2004M1
2004M4
2004M7
2004M10
2005M1
2005M4
2005M7
2005M10
2006M1
2006M4
2006M7

Moving average (Column E)

2006M10
2007M1
2007M4
2007M7
2007M10
2008M1
2008M4

Column O
2008M7
2008M10
2009M1
2009M4
2009M7
2009M10
2010M1
2010M4
2010M7

Linear (Column O)
2010M10
2011M1
 a -0.0052
b 0.357
c 97.88
Dato Tendencia
Año X Yi-Yi-1 Yi/Yi-1 Y/T
original Cuadratica
Consecutivo Horas
2002 1 1 2002M1 100.3 98.2318 0.7 1.0069790628 1.0210542818
2002 2 2 2002M2 101 98.5732 -5 0.9504950495 1.0246192677
2002 3 3 2002M3 96 98.9042 10.1 1.1052083333 0.9706362318
2002 4 4 2002M4 106.1 99.2248 6.2 1.0584354383 1.0692891293
2002 5 5 2002M5 112.3 99.535 -9.4 0.9162956367 1.1282463455
2002 6 6 2002M6 102.9 99.8348 12 1.1166180758 1.0307027209
2002 7 7 2002M7 114.9 100.1242 -49 0.5735422106 1.1475747122
2002 8 8 2002M8 65.9 100.4032 38.8 1.5887708649 0.6563535824
2002 9 9 2002M9 104.7 100.6718 11.4 1.1088825215 1.0400131914
2002 10 10 2002M10 116.1 100.93 -9.6 0.9173126615 1.1503021896
2002 11 11 2002M11 106.5 101.1778 -14.7 0.861971831 1.0526024484
2002 12 12 2002M12 91.8 101.4152 8.1 1.0882352941 0.9051897546
2003 1 13 2003M1 99.9 101.6422 0.6 1.006006006 0.9828594816
2003 2 14 2003M2 100.5 101.8588 3.8 1.0378109453 0.9866599646
2003 3 15 2003M3 104.3 102.065 -5 0.9520613615 1.0218978102
2003 4 16 2003M4 99.3 102.2608 9.4 1.0946626385 0.9710465789
2003 5 17 2003M5 108.7 102.4462 -1.3 0.9880404784 1.061044724
2003 6 18 2003M6 107.4 102.6212 7.2 1.0670391061 1.0465673759
2003 7 19 2003M7 114.6 102.7858 -47.7 0.5837696335 1.1149400014
2003 8 20 2003M8 66.9 102.94 39.8 1.5949177877 0.6498931416
2003 9 21 2003M9 106.7 103.0838 5.8 1.0543580131 1.0350801969
2003 10 22 2003M10 112.5 103.2172 -6.1 0.9457777778 1.0899346233
2003 11 23 2003M11 106.4 103.3402 -12.5 0.882518797 1.0296090002
2003 12 24 2003M12 93.9 103.4528 0.2 1.0021299255 0.907660305
2004 1 25 2004M1 94.1 103.555 9.7 1.1030818278 0.9086958621
2004 2 26 2004M2 103.8 103.6468 8.1 1.0780346821 1.0014780968
2004 3 27 2004M3 111.9 103.7282 -10.6 0.9052725648 1.0787808908
2004 4 28 2004M4 101.3 103.7992 5.8 1.0572556762 0.9759227431
2004 5 29 2004M5 107.1 103.8598 4.5 1.0420168067 1.0311978263
2004 6 30 2004M6 111.6 103.91 1.8 1.0161290323 1.0740063517
2004 7 31 2004M7 113.4 103.9498 -46.2 0.5925925926 1.0909111898
2004 8 32 2004M8 67.2 103.9792 40.4 1.6011904762 0.6462831028
2004 9 33 2004M9 107.6 103.9982 -2.2 0.9795539033 1.0346332917
2004 10 34 2004M10 105.4 104.0068 1.1 1.0104364326 1.013395278
2004 11 35 2004M11 106.5 104.005 -13.8 0.8704225352 1.0239892313
2004 12 36 2004M12 92.7 103.9928 0.7 1.0075512406 0.8914078667
2005 1 37 2005M1 93.4 103.9702 5.9 1.0631691649 0.8983343304
2005 2 38 2005M2 99.3 103.9372 2.6 1.026183283 0.9553845976
2005 3 39 2005M3 101.9 103.8938 2.5 1.0245338567 0.9808092494
2005 4 40 2005M4 104.4 103.84 0.2 1.0019157088 1.0053929122
2005 5 41 2005M5 104.6 103.7758 1.5 1.0143403442 1.0079421214
2005 6 42 2005M6 106.1 103.7012 -3.7 0.9651272385 1.0231318442
2005 7 43 2005M7 102.4 103.6162 -34.8 0.66015625 0.9882624532
2005 8 44 2005M8 67.6 103.5208 39.2 1.5798816568 0.6530088639
2005 9 45 2005M9 106.8 103.415 -2.1 0.9803370787 1.0327321955
2005 10 46 2005M10 104.7 103.2988 6.1 1.0582617001 1.0135645332
2005 11 47 2005M11 110.8 103.1722 -14 0.8736462094 1.0739327067
2005 12 48 2005M12 96.8 103.0352 3.9 1.0402892562 0.9394847586
2006 1 49 2006M1 100.7 102.8878 4.2 1.0417080437 0.9787360601
2006 2 50 2006M2 104.9 102.73 16.4 1.1563393708 1.021123333
2006 3 51 2006M3 121.3 102.5618 -27 0.7774113768 1.1827015516
2006 4 52 2006M4 94.3 102.3832 20.5 1.2173913043 0.9210495472
2006 5 53 2006M5 114.8 102.1942 -0.5 0.9956445993 1.1233514231
2006 6 54 2006M6 114.3 101.9948 -3.1 0.9728783902 1.1206453662
2006 7 55 2006M7 111.2 101.785 -43.5 0.6088129496 1.0924988947
2006 8 56 2006M8 67.7 101.5648 39.1 1.5775480059 0.6665695201
2006 9 57 2006M9 106.8 101.3342 0 1 1.0539383545
2006 10 58 2006M10 106.8 101.0932 4 1.0374531835 1.056450879
2006 11 59 2006M11 110.8 100.8418 -18.7 0.8312274368 1.0987507165
2006 12 60 2006M12 92.1 100.58 12 1.1302931596 0.9156890038
2007 1 61 2007M1 104.1 100.3078 0.9 1.0086455331 1.0378056343
2007 2 62 2007M2 105 100.0252 10 1.0952380952 1.0497354667
2007 3 63 2007M3 115 99.7322 -15.8 0.8626086957 1.1530879696
2007 4 64 2007M4 99.2 99.4288 11.3 1.1139112903 0.9976988559
2007 5 65 2007M5 110.5 99.115 -4.9 0.9556561086 1.1148665691
2007 6 66 2007M6 105.6 98.7908 4.2 1.0397727273 1.0689254465
2007 7 67 2007M7 109.8 98.4562 -39.7 0.6384335155 1.1152167157
2007 8 68 2007M8 70.1 98.1112 35.3 1.5035663338 0.7144953889
2007 9 69 2007M9 105.4 97.7558 5.2 1.0493358634 1.0781968947
2007 10 70 2007M10 110.6 97.39 3 1.027124774 1.1356402095
2007 11 71 2007M11 113.6 97.0138 -20.8 0.8169014085 1.1709674294
2007 12 72 2007M12 92.8 96.6272 12.3 1.1325431034 0.9603921049
2008 1 73 2008M1 105.1 96.2302 5.5 1.0523311132 1.0921727275
2008 2 74 2008M2 110.6 95.8228 -13.6 0.877034358 1.1542138197
2008 3 75 2008M3 97 95.405 14.4 1.1484536082 1.0167182014
2008 4 76 2008M4 111.4 94.9768 -5.6 0.9497307002 1.1729180179
2008 5 77 2008M5 105.8 94.5382 -5.4 0.9489603025 1.1191243328
2008 6 78 2008M6 100.4 94.0892 8.4 1.0836653386 1.0670725227
2008 7 79 2008M7 108.8 93.6298 -45.4 0.5827205882 1.162023202
2008 8 80 2008M8 63.4 93.16 34.4 1.5425867508 0.6805495921
2008 9 81 2008M9 97.8 92.6798 -1.6 0.9836400818 1.055246127
2008 10 82 2008M10 96.2 92.1892 -8.8 0.9085239085 1.0435061808
2008 11 83 2008M11 87.4 91.6882 -11.9 0.8638443936 0.9532306229
2008 12 84 2008M12 75.5 91.1768 2.2 1.0291390728 0.8280615244
2009 1 85 2009M1 77.7 90.655 2.1 1.027027027 0.8570955822
2009 2 86 2009M2 79.8 90.1228 3.4 1.0426065163 0.8854585077
2009 3 87 2009M3 83.2 89.5802 -6.4 0.9230769231 0.9287766716
2009 4 88 2009M4 76.8 89.0272 5.1 1.06640625 0.8626577046
2009 5 89 2009M5 81.9 88.4638 6.8 1.083028083 0.9258024186
2009 6 90 2009M6 88.7 87.89 6.7 1.075535513 1.0092160655
2009 7 91 2009M7 95.4 87.3058 -39.4 0.5870020964 1.0927109081
2009 8 92 2009M8 56 86.7112 26.3 1.4696428571 0.645821993
2009 9 93 2009M9 82.3 86.1062 5.8 1.0704738761 0.9557964467
2009 10 94 2009M10 88.1 85.4908 -1.4 0.9841089671 1.0305202431
2009 11 95 2009M11 86.7 84.865 -6.7 0.92272203 1.021622577
2009 12 96 2009M12 80 84.2288 -6.5 0.91875 0.9497938947
2010 1 97 2010M1 73.5 83.5822 6.4 1.0870748299 0.879373838
2010 2 98 2010M2 79.9 82.9252 9.8 1.1226533166 0.9635189303
2010 3 99 2010M3 89.7 82.2578 -10.6 0.8818283166 1.0904740949
2010 4 100 2010M4 79.1 81.58 8 1.1011378003 0.9696003923
2010 5 101 2010M5 87.1 80.8918 5.3 1.0608495982 1.0767469632
2010 6 102 2010M6 92.4 80.1932 -3 0.9675324675 1.152217395
2010 7 103 2010M7 89.4 79.4842 -29.8 0.6666666667 1.1247518375
2010 8 104 2010M8 59.6 78.7648 22 1.3691275168 0.7566831884
2010 9 105 2010M9 81.6 78.035 0.3 1.0036764706 1.0456846287
2010 10 106 2010M10 81.9 77.2948 7.1 1.0866910867 1.0595796871
2010 11 107 2010M11 89 76.5442 -13.2 0.8516853933 1.162726895
2010 12 108 2010M12 75.8 75.7832 -0.7 0.9907651715 1.000221685
2011 1 109 2011M1 75.1 75.0118 1.001175815

Promedio -0.23333 1.018281141

Desvest 17.8989 0.2084034317
Coef variacion -76.7094 0.2046619772
Modelo Multiplicativo
-0.213834 108.4443425
 a
98 8.1666666667 IP=a+bX b
Media Movil c
Pronostico
Promedio I Normalizar
12 I centrado I mensual Cuadratico
Mensuales It Y=T*It

94.073755851
99.141117313 130
104.93672094
120
98.051460498
105.53393742 110
1.016381988 1.0132056295 1.0172690428 1.0593304177 1.0610842985 105.93313872
100 f(x) = - 0.0051897766x^2 + 0
1.013199088 1.0125141705 1.1333912607 1.105494111 1.1073244227 110.86997197
1.0100358127 1.0101547184 0.6497554982 0.6669560958 0.6680603419 67.075396116 90
1.0143076109 1.0069829797 1.0328011618 1.040423997 1.0421465753 104.9147716 80
1.0061207317 1.0028279931 1.1470583166 1.0714656277 1.0732396001 108.32207284
70
1.0005205966 1.0004954465 1.0520811984 1.0566284181 1.0583778253 107.08433994
1.0018426511 0.999850155 0.9053254131 0.9153807683 0.9168963188 92.987223545 60
0.9991230919 0.9986271509 0.9842106543 0.9560881512 0.9576710989 97.339797367 50
0.9985847219 0.9966337898 0.9899924874 1.0040989397 1.0057613765 102.44564689

2002M1

2004M5
2004M9
2005M1
2005M5
2002M5
2002M9
2003M1
2003M5
2003M9
2004M1
0.998173639 0.9941811784 1.0278788539 1.0592398462 1.060993577 108.29030944
0.9931430085 0.9919342211 0.9789425128 0.9865415692 0.9881749371 101.05155961
0.9912268878 0.98930404 1.0725163155 1.0585170938 1.060269628 108.62059436
0.991432767 0.9877241807 1.0595745213 11.980165036 12 108.88974401
0.9852524653 0.9876557805 1.1288750833 113.81722665
0.9864873097 0.9897829298 0.6566016871 68.770131591
0.9912275664 0.9906693839 1.044829096 107.42842914
0.9916339134 0.9907379462 1.1001240312 110.77678645
0.989146672 0.9900035925 1.0400053171 109.37297615
0.9914332533 0.9899980404 0.9168304056 94.855491485
0.9894308523 0.9892178806 0.9186003205 99.171630645
0.9891300157 0.9869790947 1.0146902828 104.24394823
0.9890927736 0.9846844831 1.0955599579 110.05495396
0.9827144949 0.9819508289 0.9938611125 102.57176793
0.9822461808 0.9810554472 1.0511106474 110.11939151
0.9808918109 0.9790357953 1.0970041717 110.25726946
0.98002835 0.9747461655 1.119174641 115.10615228
0.976187225 0.9715629719 0.6651993967 69.464379898
0.9680229216 0.9690141614 1.0677174111 108.38136797
0.970478769 0.9677736046 1.0471408531 111.62421644
0.9685407936 0.9628630783 1.0634837439 110.07658572
0.9643012513 0.9587853704 0.9297261871 95.350615497
0.9557471899 0.9560680351 0.939613393 99.569255685
0.95630767 0.9562067551 0.9991401886 104.53602134
0.9561492453 0.9575459671 1.0242946899 110.23065449
0.9561633499 0.9602734567 1.0469860488 102.61208547
0.9603253062 0.965229626 1.0442511235 110.03032886
0.9643317139 0.9706245526 1.0540963975 110.03571506
0.971031858 0.9802921295 1.0081305597 114.73674885
0.9765100859 0.9853834537 0.6626951787 69.158141037
0.9933344445 0.9918545159 1.0412133826 107.77358808
0.9863058307 0.9954261675 1.0182217087 110.86436281
0.9959232725 1.0042361471 1.0694025601 109.19516867
1.0040493994 1.0102169977 0.9299831232 94.472595582
1.0127357695 1.0140781992 0.9651485071 98.532672487
1.0138658242 1.0162352315 1.0048100099 103.3218662
1.0156330041 1.018704968 1.1609853577 108.81741105
1.0192068662 1.0199246514 0.903056462 101.17251222
1.0212750337 1.0215938688 1.0996066611 108.35340641
1.0192920542 1.0233684787 1.0950555832 108.22508081
1.0242145187 1.0249814821 1.0658718365 112.70901637
1.0265988631 1.0270828116 0.6489929659 67.851415009
1.0241310646 1.0281536692 1.0250786299 105.60508949
1.030518507 1.0286104618 1.0270660451 108.49722554
1.0298114359 1.0275691576 1.0692717939 106.72872499
1.0255014425 1.0280948178 0.8906659074 92.22143174
1.0273945943 1.0307309909 1.0068637146 96.061881052
1.0313884167 1.034935817 1.0143000652 100.60148283
1.0334099617 1.0398153888 1.1089352803 105.81522362
1.0400090726 1.045262865 0.9544956482 98.253048185
1.046027132 1.0500208346 1.061756617 105.08862417
1.0497523904 1.055674961 1.0125516717 104.82536672
1.0542829815 1.0562992853 1.0557772131 109.02295483
1.0629895109 1.0602806116 0.6738738604 65.544201812
1.0516253636 1.0614780327 1.0157505492 101.87587219
1.0662269604 1.0664120327 1.0649169126 104.52280466
1.0665817741 1.067779014 1.0966383624 102.67725467
1.0664273637 1.0680847853 0.8991721614 88.597123971
1.0703279043 1.0678045053 1.0228208647 92.156881379
1.0674990879 1.0636647666 1.0851293151 96.374871223
1.0655865239 1.0544197221 0.9642442948 101.22409222
1.0579086882 1.0421363495 1.1254938171 93.853693366
1.0397639543 1.0258823347 1.090889564 100.23598214
1.0287364059 1.0082111392 1.0583820008 99.836572779
1.0091466438 0.9917729729 1.1716625012 103.67856424
0.9867503678 0.9732463852 0.6992572512 62.236501447
0.979421907 0.9568151698 1.1028735333 96.585936169
0.9535668809 0.9412196507 1.1086744523 98.941100144
0.9374567214 0.9323171323 1.0224317348 97.040757725
0.93263535 0.9278200114 0.8924807767 83.599672276
0.9268593255 0.9221675233 0.9294358785 86.817673469
0.9239653589 0.9180796561 0.9644680631 90.642031378
0.9156778855 0.916856221 1.0130014394 95.044016828
0.914595724 0.9217767318 0.9358640491 87.97444776
0.9202950536 0.9276768035 0.9979794851 93.795480313
0.9304394177 0.9338454437 1.080709953 93.258698995
0.9322959391 0.9411242243 1.1610697928 96.675844586
0.9388009743 0.9507547947 0.6792729278 57.928313915
0.9522757595 0.962409924 0.9931282117 89.735281442
0.9611876502 0.9735457174 1.0585227018 91.752112006
0.9737663622 0.9826009064 1.0397126345 89.819234147
0.9856831397 0.990542669 0.9588621717 77.229076653
0.9883532171 0.9970090664 0.8820118769 80.044257321
0.9975916501 1.0033926448 0.9602611055 83.402963294
1.0050823319 1.0106163099 1.0790188959 87.27499746
1.0075039523 1.016743853 0.9536329031 80.615311368
1.0192626454 1.0254475776 1.0500263366 85.76711869
1.0234649613 85.091745367
1.033615126 88.014795881
52.619639214
81.323908003
82.955840244
81.012683938
69.485337103
 50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2002M1
2002M5
2002M9
2003M1

MSE
2003M5
2003M9

97.88
2004M1 0.357
-0.0052

2004M5
2004M9
2005M1
2005M5
2005M9
2006M1
2006M5 32.39337
2006M9
2007M1
2007M5
2007M9
2008M1
2008M5
2008M9
2009M1
f(x) = - 0.0051897766x^2 + 0.3570416779x + 97.8831470843

2009M5
2009M9
2010M1
2010M5
2010M9
2011M1
Column E

Column O
(Column E)
Polynomial
 Costo de Costo Mano Costo Red
Semana Mantenimiento Preventivo Correctivo de Obra Neuronal

1 350 5.5 3.3 413.7953606 385.4377

2 460 7.5 3.3 363.8451816 385.4427
3 350 8 3 329.1183496 352.0128
4 430 8 4.5 440.3147858 459.8995
5 350 6.8 3 359.088457 394.7756
6 380 7.5 4 415.7368519 392.8528
7 430 4.5 3 416.5311629 438.6064
8 470 6.4 3.7 420.9701631 385.4401
9 450 7 3.5 391.1589179 422.9835
10 490 5 4 478.1745756 489.9205
11 340 7.2 3.5 386.1639 385.4407
12 300 7.9 3.2 346.4420501 385.4449
13 440 5.9 4 455.6969951 396.6749
14 450 5 3.5 441.1090969 448.408
15 300 7 2.7 331.8541519 350.2217
b0 Preventivo corectivo MSE MSE NEURONAL
Costo 306.5261932837 -24.9750895 74.13095749 1802.220431 2106.970154049
42.45256684 45.9017445643

300 4.5 2.7

490 8 4.5
0.2631578947 0.28571429 0.333333333
0.8421052632 0.85714286 0.333333333
0.2631578947 1 0.166666667
0.6842105263 1 1
0.2631578947 0.65714286 0.166666667
0.4210526316 0.85714286 0.722222222
0.6842105263 0 0.166666667
0.8947368421 0.54285714 0.555555556
0.7894736842 0.71428571 0.444444444
1 0.14285714 0.722222222
0.2105263158 0.77142857 0.444444444
0 0.97142857 0.277777778
0.7368421053 0.4 0.722222222
0.7894736842 0.14285714 0.444444444
0 0.71428571 0
 C osto de M ante nim ie nto
Costo de Mantenimiento
Preventivo Correctivo Preventi
600
500
400
Costo de Man 1 300
Resumen Preventivo -0.44327318 1 200

Correctivo 0.55631986 0.03043758 1 100

0
Estadísticas de la regresión 4 4.5 5
Coeficiente de cor 0.722134292

C osto d e M ante nim ie nto

Coeficiente de de 0.521477936
R^2 ajustado 0.441724259
Error típico 47.46341263
Observaciones 15 Correcti
600
500
ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA 400
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F 300
200
Regresión 2 29460.0269 14730.0134 6.53860679 0.01200637 100
Residuos 12 27033.3065 2252.77554 0
2.6 2.8 3
Total 14 56493.3333

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%

Intercepción 306.5261933 114.253894 2.68285118 0.01993159 57.5883445 555.464042
Preventivo -24.97508952 10.8321251 -2.30565002 0.03978846 -48.5762627 -1.37391636
Correctivo 74.13095749 25.9673179 2.85477914 0.01449363 17.5530321 130.708883

Análisis de los residuales

Observación
Pronóstico Costo de Mantenimiento
Residuos
1 413.7953606 -63.7953606
2 363.8451816 96.1548184
3 329.1183496 20.8816504
4 440.3147858 -10.3147858
5 359.088457 -9.08845703
6 415.7368519 -35.7368519
7 416.5311629 13.4688371
8 420.9701631 49.0298369
9 391.1589179 58.8410821
10 478.1745756 11.8254244
11 386.1639 -46.1639
12 346.4420501 -46.4420501
13 455.6969951 -15.6969951
14 441.1090969 8.89090309
15 331.8541519 -31.8541519
C osto de M ante nim ie nto

Preventivo Curva de regresión ajustada

600
500
400
300 Costo de Mantenimiento
200 Pronóstico Costo de
Mantenimiento
100
0
4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5
Preventivo
C osto d e M ante nim ie nto

Correctivo Curva de regresión ajustada

600
500
400
300 Costo de Mantenimi ento
200 Pronóstico Costo de
100 Mantenimi ento
0
2.6 2.8 3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6
Correctivo

Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%

57.5883445 555.464042
-48.5762627 -1.37391636
17.5530321 130.708883