POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 14TH JUNE 2018, 8 AM EST

Opinions on the Potential

Green/Liberal Cooperation
Deal
14th June 2018
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results
of eight surveys conducted between June
11th and June 12th, 2018 in the provincial
electoral districts of Guelph, Don Valley East,
Don Valley West, Scarborough-Guildwood,
Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa South, Orleans, and
Thunder Bay-Superior North. The survey
was conducted using automated telephone
interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were
interviewed on landlines and cellular phones.
The survey is intended to represent the voting
population in these eight electoral districts.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third
party.
The sample sizes and margins of error in each
survey are are follows and are accurate 19
times out of 20:
Guelph, n=523, +/- 4.27%
Don Valley East, n=640, +/- 3.86%
Don Valley West, n=798, +/- 3.45%
Scarborough-Guildwood, n=570, +/- 4.09%
Ottawa-Vanier, n=796, +/- 3.46%
Ottawa South, n=858, +/- 3.33%
Orleans, n=718, +/- 3.64%
Thunder Bay-Superior North, n=657, +/- 3.81%
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all
three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
was the only polling firm to correctly predict a
Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal
election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted
the Miami & New York City Mayoral elections.
and the Alabama special election in 2017.
Mainstreet Research is a member of the World
Association for Public Opinion Research and
meets international and Canadian publication
standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
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www.mainstreetresearch.ca
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AMBIVALENCE, LACK OF AWARENESS TOWARDS GREEN-LIBERAL
COALITION

Low awareness might point to potential for risk in official party status
gamble

As part of our post election wrap up work, we wanted to look more

specifically at the two parties that captured 7 seats and 1 seat. For one
party, the Ontario Greens, this was a breakthrough year with the election
of Mike Schreiner who was elected in the riding of Guelph. For the other,
the Ontario Liberals, this was a crushing fall from grace, reduced to just
seven seats, one short of the threshold for official party status.

It appears from the results of these eight riding surveys that there is little
awareness of this effort to cooperate between the Liberals and Greens.
Varying from under 1 in 4 voters (Thunder Bay Superior North - 24%) to
just over 4 in 10 voters (Scarborough Guildwood - 41%) the matter of
cooperation between Green and Liberals is not yet on the radar of voters
in these 8 ridings.

While opinions on the possible cooperation are mixed, a slight plurality on

average say they are more likely to vote for the Greens or Liberals in their
respective ridings. On the surface, this might appear to present little risk
to either the Mike Schreiner led Greens or the John Fraser led Liberals.
However, with more than 1 in 4 voters (27.25%) on average are not sure
how the cooperation might affect their vote in these 8 ridings, this could
be a potentially risky gamble for both the Greens and Mike Schreiner and
the newly named interim Liberal leader, John Fraser.
 There are reports that the Ontario Liberal Party and Ontario
Green Party are considering cooperating to seek official party
status jointly. Are you aware of the possibility of cooperation
or partnership between these two parties?

Don Valley East 34% 66%

Don Valley West 31% 69%

Guelph 36% 64%

Scarborough-Guildwood 41% 59%

Ottawa-Vanier 30% 70%

Ottawa South 34% 66%

Orleans 37% 63%

Thunder Bay-Superior
24% 76%
North

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Yes No
Does the possibility of forming a coalition with the Greens (or
Liberals in the case of Guelph) make you more or less likely to
vote again for your MPP?

Don Valley East 43% 32% 25%

Don Valley West 51% 26% 23%

Guelph 39% 35% 27%

Scarborough-Guildwood 37% 29% 34%

Ottawa-Vanier 36% 33% 31%

Ottawa South 41% 36% 23%

Orleans 31% 44% 25%

Thunder Bay-Superior
36% 34% 30%
North

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

More Likely Less Likely Not Sure

Breakouts
There are reports that the Ontario Liberal Party and Ontario Green Party are
considering cooperating to seek official party status jointly. Are you aware of the
possibility of cooperation or partnership between these two parties?
Don Valley East
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Yes 33.9% 37.9% 30.5% 38.9% 27.7% 34.1% 34.6%
No 66.1% 62.1% 69.5% 61.1% 72.3% 65.9% 65.4%
Unweighted Frequency 640 268 372 46 94 192 308
Weighted Frequency 640 293 347 174 165 157 144

Don Valley West

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Yes 31% 39.7% 23.7% 33.2% 30.8% 27.8% 32%
No 69% 60.3% 76.3% 66.8% 69.2% 72.2% 68%
Unweighted Frequency 798 328 470 64 90 228 416
Weighted Frequency 798 365 433 217 205 196 180

Guelph
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Yes 35.8% 41.6% 30.6% 36.3% 31.1% 36% 41.6%
No 64.2% 58.4% 69.4% 63.7% 68.9% 64% 58.4%
Unweighted Frequency 523 240 283 58 74 167 224
Weighted Frequency 523 251 272 163 134 129 96

Scarborough-Guildwood
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Yes 41.3% 44.6% 38.4% 49.9% 31.9% 41.2% 39.9%
No 58.7% 55.4% 61.6% 50.1% 68.1% 58.8% 60.1%
Unweighted Frequency 570 246 324 36 88 180 266
Weighted Frequency 570 269 301 173 139 145 113

Ottawa-Vanier
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Yes 30.2% 33.9% 26.8% 36.9% 26.6% 24.1% 32%
No 69.8% 66.1% 73.2% 63.1% 73.4% 75.9% 68%
Unweighted Frequency 796 322 474 50 108 220 418
Weighted Frequency 796 376 420 242 194 202 158

Ottawa South
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Yes 33.8% 37% 30.9% 43.5% 32.8% 25.9% 30.3%
No 66.2% 63% 69.1% 56.5% 67.2% 74.1% 69.7%
Unweighted Frequency 858 386 472 88 146 242 382
Weighted Frequency 858 405 453 261 209 218 170
 Orleans
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Yes 37.4% 36.2% 38.4% 55.3% 27.4% 29.2% 32.6%
No 62.6% 63.8% 61.6% 44.7% 72.6% 70.8% 67.4%
Unweighted Frequency 718 352 366 76 134 324 184
Weighted Frequency 718 339 379 218 175 182 142

Thunder Bay-Superior North

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Yes 23.7% 32% 15.7% 21% 12.3% 27.9% 31.5%
No 76.3% 68% 84.3% 79% 87.7% 72.1% 68.5%
Unweighted Frequency 657 264 393 51 72 225 309
Weighted Frequency 657 322 335 165 141 196 156

Does the possibility of forming a coalition with the Greens (or Liberals in the case of
Guelph) make you more or less likely to vote again for your MPP?
Don Valley East
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
More Likely 43.3% 45.6% 41.3% 38.7% 47.1% 43.8% 44%
Less Likely 32.2% 27.3% 36.3% 35.1% 29.9% 33.3% 30%
Not Sure 24.5% 27.1% 22.4% 26.2% 23.1% 22.8% 26%
Unweighted Frequency 640 268 372 46 94 192 308
Weighted Frequency 640 293 347 174 165 157 144

Don Valley West

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
More Likely 50.6% 45.9% 54.6% 59.6% 51.2% 38.3% 52.5%
Less Likely 26.3% 27% 25.7% 22.1% 24.3% 32.4% 27%
Not Sure 23.1% 27.1% 19.7% 18.3% 24.6% 29.2% 20.5%
Unweighted Frequency 798 328 470 64 90 228 416
Weighted Frequency 798 365 433 217 205 196 180

Guelph
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
More Likely 38.8% 35.4% 41.9% 32.8% 43.2% 36.5% 46%
Less Likely 34.6% 44.5% 25.5% 34.6% 32.5% 36.6% 34.9%
Not Sure 26.6% 20.1% 32.6% 32.6% 24.3% 26.9% 19.2%
Unweighted Frequency 523 240 283 58 74 167 224
Weighted Frequency 523 251 272 163 134 129 196

Scarborough-Guildwood
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
More Likely 36.9% 37.5% 36.4% 44.6% 25% 39.9% 36%
Less Likely 28.8% 37.6% 20.9% 22.4% 29.6% 33.4% 31.6%
Not Sure 34.3% 24.9% 42.7% 33.1% 45.3% 26.7% 32.4%
Unweighted Frequency 570 246 324 36 88 180 266
Weighted Frequency 570 269 301 173 139 145 113
 Ottawa-Vanier
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
More Likely 36.2% 28.3% 43.2% 29.8% 27.7% 48.3% 40.7%
Less Likely 33% 34% 32.1% 40.5% 27.7% 30.3% 31.6%
Not Sure 30.9% 37.7% 24.7% 29.7% 44.7% 21.4% 27.7%
Unweighted Frequency 796 322 474 50 108 220 418
Weighted Frequency 796 376 420 242 194 202 158

Ottawa South
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
More Likely 41.5% 36.8% 45.7% 50% 46.3% 30.9% 36.1%
Less Likely 35.9% 43.6% 29% 29.9% 32.9% 40.4% 43.1%
Not Sure 22.6% 19.6% 25.3% 20.1% 20.8% 28.7% 20.7%
Unweighted Frequency 858 386 472 88 146 242 382
Weighted Frequency 858 405 453 261 209 218 170

Orleans
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
More Likely 30.6% 23.4% 37.1% 18.9% 70.8% 37.4% 27.4%
Less Likely 44.1% 51.4% 37.5% 49.5% 39.9% 38.8% 47.7%
Not Sure 25.3% 25.2% 25.4% 31.6% 19.3% 23.8% 24.9%
Unweighted Frequency 718 352 366 76 134 324 184
Weighted Frequency 718 339 379 218 175 182 142

Thunder Bay-Superior North

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
More Likely 36.3% 38.6% 34% 36.3% 34.7% 39.1% 34.1%
Less Likely 33.9% 40.3% 27.8% 41.4% 26% 36% 30.6%
Not Sure 29.8% 21.1% 38.2% 22.3% 39.3% 24.9% 35.3%
Unweighted Frequency 657 264 393 51 72 225 309
Weighted Frequency 657 322 355 165 141 196 156
Questionnaire
There are reports that the Ontario Liberal Party and Ontario Green Party are considering
cooperating to seek official party status jointly. Are you aware of the possibility of
cooperation or partnership between these two parties?
Yes
No

Does the possibility of forming a coalition with the Greens make you more or less likely
to vote again for your Liberal MPP?
(only asked to respondents in Don Valley West, Don Valley East, Scarborough-
Guildwood, Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa South, Orleans, and Thunder Bay-Superior North)
More Likely
Less Likely
Not Sure

Does the possibility of forming a coalition with the Liberal Party make you more or less
likely to vote again for Mike Schreiner?
(only asked to respondents in Guelph)
More Likely
Less Likely
Not Sure

What is your gender?

Male
Female

What is your age group?

Under 18 years of age
18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of eight surveys conducted between June
11th and June 12th, 2018 in the provincial electoral districts of Guelph, Don Valley East, Don
Valley West, Scarborough-Guildwood, Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa South, Orleans, and Thunder
Bay-Superior North. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The survey
is intended to represent the voting population in these eight electoral districts.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.
In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what
region of the province they resided in. In both cases, respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
and gender.

The sample sizes and margins of error in each survey are are follows and are accurate 19
times out of 20: Guelph, n=523, +/- 4.27%, Don Valley East, n=640, +/- 3.86%, Don Valley
West, n=798, +/- 3.45%, Scarborough-Guildwood, n=570, +/- 4.09%, Ottawa-Vanier, n=796,
+/- 3.46%, Ottawa South, n=858, +/- 3.33%, Orleans, n=718, +/- 3.64%, Thunder Bay-Superior
North, n=657, +/- 3.81%. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls.