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daniel.gross@yale.edu
Session 6:
Renewable Resource Assessment and Forecasting
How Wind Turbines Work
Probabilistic Analysis
Remember: the goal is to enable a decision maker to understand the key terms
of the agreement without reading it or looking up the defined terms
Common Errors on Assignment #5
Debt is Fixed, regardless of the Active Scenario
Remember to check for these items to make sure it is implemented correctly
Loan size is determined based upon the CADS from the lender’s Debt
Sizing Scenario
Loan size does not change when the Active Case is changed
Minimum and average DSCR are not the same across cases
Average DSCR is lower in Downside and higher in Upside
When calculating the DSCR in every period, you want to show the ability for
the project cashflow to service the debt
This is not the same as showing the target DSCR for debt sizing purposes
Wind
Vane
measures
wind
direction
More met masts are required for larger projects and complex terrain
Wind Forecasting measure
Turbulence intensity
Statistical characteristics (ambient, characteristic, I)
Characteristic turbulence
Mean Wind Speed [m/s] Mean Temperature [°C] intensity for each dir. sector
On-site measurements
are correlated to
long-term data sets
from airports and
weather stations
wind speed
direction
turbulence
Hours
characteristics on-site 600
(including adjustments for 400
topography, wind shear at hub
200
height, and air density at site
elevation and temperature) 0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind Speed [m/s]
1,500
Power Curve to calculate
Gross Output in MWh 1,250 Turbine Power Curve
1,000 (different for each
750
turbine model)
500
250
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind Speed [m/s]
Wind Forecasting forecast
1,200
1,000
800
Hours
600
400
200
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind Speed [m/s]
Wind Forecasting forecast
1,750
Electrical Power Output [kW]
1,250
1,000
500
250
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind Speed [m/s]
Turbine selection based upon suitability for site (CapEx vs. energy yield tradeoff)
Sensitivity is usually greater for low wind speed sites
Need for Cut-Out: a Precautionary Tale
Cut out speed and malfunction of a mechanical brake
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YJuFvjtM0s
Hours
characteristics on-site 600
(including adjustments for 400
topography, wind shear at hub
200
height, and air density at site
elevation and temperature) 0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind Speed [m/s]
1,500
Power Curve to calculate
Gross Output in MWh 1,250 Turbine Power Curve
1,000 cut-in speed
(different for each
750
turbine model)
500
250
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind Speed [m/s]
Wind Flow Modeling optimize
Wind Rose
Wind direction is used
16 “slices”
to determine
N-S-E-W
optimal layout of
NE-SE-SW-NW
turbines and
minimize wake NNE-ENE-ESE-SSE
effects SSW-WSW-WNW-NNW
Wind is blowing
from SW for 12%
of the hours of
the year
Forecast of
Gross Generation is
adjusted for loss
factors to determine
Net Generation
Gross
GrossGeneration
Generation 165,000
165,000MWh
MWh
adjustments
adjustmentsfor:
for:
Topographic
TopographicEffect
Effect 96.3%
96.3%
Wake Effect
Wake Effect 91.5%
91.5%
Electrical
ElectricalEfficiency
Efficiency 98.5%
98.5%
Availability
Availability 97.0%
97.0%
Columnar
ColumnarControl
ControlLoss
Loss 99.6%
99.6%
High Wind Hysteresis
High Wind Hysteresis 98.5%
98.5%
Blade
BladeIcing
Icing 99.1%
99.1%
Air Density
Air Density 98.9%
98.9%
Power
PowerCurve
Curve 100.0%
100.0%
Net
NetGeneration
Generation 133,569
133,569MWh
MWh
Loss Adjustment Factors predict
Long-term probability
P90 P50
P90 P50
Long-term Probability
(ten-year average)
Each sample represents
the average of ten years
The likelihood of randomly drawing a sample from the tails one time is greater
than the likelihood of randomly drawing a sample from the tails 10 times
Wind Forecasting sensitize
Another reason why on-site measurement should be for more than one year,
especially if site lacks a strong correlation to long-term data
Wind Technology Risk: Scale Up
from to
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
80.5% 82.5% 84.5% 86.5% 88.5% 90.5% 92.5% 94.5% 96.5% 98.5%
Note: Availability rate includes downtime for electrical interconnection and grid issues unrelated to the turbine
Source:
DNV-GL / Garrad Hassan
Wind Technology Risk: Availability
Availability as a Function of Time
from Commissioning
100% 300
99% 270
98% 240
97% 210
96% 180
95% 150
94% 120
93% 90
Annual moving average (left axis)
92% 60
90% 0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
Years of wind farm operation
Source:
DNV-GL / Garrad Hassan
Wind Technology Risk: Predictive Accuracy
Source:
DNV-GL / Garrad Hassan
Probabilistic Analysis
Statistics Review
Recall from probability and statistics classes:
95.45% of the
total area under
the curve
-2𝜎 𝜇 2𝜎
-2 standard deviations Mean 2 standard deviations
Meaning: There is a 95.45% chance that any single sample drawn from this
normal population will fall within 2 standard deviations of the
mean
Statistics Review
68.26% of the population falls within + or - 1 standard deviation of the mean
68.26% of the
total area under
the curve
-1𝜎 𝜇 1𝜎
-1 standard deviation Mean 1 standard deviation
Statistics Review
We find the % area under the curve using a Z-table
84.13%
P = 68.26% — 15.87%
68.26%
-1𝜎 𝜇 +1𝜎
Z-score
Z P
(# std. devs.) (area under normal curve) P = 84.13%
+1 0.8413
-1𝜎 𝜇 +1𝜎
-1 0.1587 P = 15.87%
-1𝜎 𝜇 +1𝜎
Areas under the curve (probabilities) always “sweep” from the left to the right
How to read a Z-table
Area under
How much area is under the curve at Z = -0.674? the curve =
25%
-0.674 𝜇
Z-score
3. Find the
corresponding decimal
value (round between
0.07 and 0.08)
Finding Z
The Z table is useful if you want to know the probability of something falling
within 1, 2, 3, etc. standard deviations of the mean
Z P
(# std. devs.) (area under normal curve)
-0.674 25.00%
+1 84.13%
+2 97.72%
+3 99.86%
But if you know the probability which interests you, how can you translate it
into a number of standard deviations from the mean?
= NORM.S.INV (Probability)
Significance If I know P50 wind and P75 wind (or P90, P95, etc)…
Thus I can graph the entire curve and find any p-level that interests me
Beware the language
Probability vs. Probability of Exceedance (p-value)
75% of area
X 𝜇
Probability is 1 – p-value
If you know 2 p-values, you know them all…
P50 = 15 GWh By definition, the mean (𝜇)
P75 = 12 GWh
P75 P50
25% of the
area under
curve
12 15 GWh
𝜇
Probability NORM.S.INV
(the Z score)
25% -0.674
If you know 2 p-values, you know them all…
P75 = 0.674 standard deviations below the mean
P50 = the mean
P75 P75
⇒ Find P, given X
⇒ Find X, given P
Finding probability, given X NORM.DIST
To find the probability that a random sample from the population will be less
than the value of X
So there is an 86.95% probability that actual wind will be greater than 10 GWh
𝜎 = 4.45 GWh
10% of the area
under the curve
X 𝜇=15 GWh
9.30
So there is 90% probability that any random year will exceed 9.30 GWh
75% of area
X 𝜇
Randomly sampled
outcomes
**
* *
*** * *
*
Each point corresponds GWh
to a single, specific
probability (or area
under the curve)
GWh
It’s more likely that the random sample will come from the
middle of the curve rather then from the tails
Random number generation
Excel can generate a random number to simulate the “sampling” process of
what the actual wind might be in a given year
25
20
15
10
0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
GWh of Annual Generation
X
Probability, Mean, Std. Dev. (i.e. the value corresponding
to the relevant % of area NORM.INV
under the curve)
Probability
(i.e. the % of the area under
X, Mean, Std. Dev. the curve between a lower NORM.DIST
limit and X)
Homework
This Week’s Assignment
1) Technical Reports
• Read the 2 Technical Reports
- extract key data for the financial model
- summarize technical risks and mitigating factors
Power: P = Ek /t t = time
− Power is “the rate of doing work” (i.e., energy divided by time)
− Usually measured in Watts
Ek ½ (ρV) v2 How do we calculate
P= = the Volume?
t t
Consider a small time period, Δt
Δ distance
Velocity = therefore… Δ distance = velocity * Δ time
Δ time
= v * Δt
During this small time period, the Volume of air moving over the turbine blades
= the Area swept by the turbine * distance that the air travels
A = rotor-swept area
Power: P = Ek /t t = time
Ek ½ (ρV) v2
P= =
t t
In the Kinetic Energy for Wind formula, replace V with the equation above
Area = π r2
− P1 = ½ρAv3
Base Case Power Production Profile
800
700
600
POWER (MW)
500
400
300
200
100
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
WIND SPEED (METRES PER SECOND)
− P1 = ½ρAv3 800
600
300
200
100
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
WIND SPEED (METRES PER SECOND)
− P1 = ½ρAv3 800
600
300
200
−P3 = ½ρA(2v)3 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
WIND SPEED (METRES PER SECOND)
− P1 = ½ρAv3 800
700
600
500
300
200
−P3 = ½ρA(2v)3 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
WIND SPEED (METRES PER SECOND)
Nacelle Interior
Wind Turbine Components: Tower
Made from tubular steel (shown here), concrete, or steel lattice.
Supports the structure of the turbine.
Wind Turbine Components: Nacelle
Sits atop the tower and contains most of the component parts.
Some are large enough for a helicopter to land on!
Wind Turbine Components: Rotor
Blades and the hub together form the Rotor.
Wind Turbine Components: Blades
Lifts and rotates when wind is blown over them, causing the rotor to spin.
Rotor spins at 7-20 rotations per minute
At 20 rpm, the tip of a 45 meter blade is spinning at 340 km/hr (~ 210 mph)
Wind Turbine Components: Low-speed Shaft
Wind Turbine Components: Gear Box
Connects the low- to the high-speed shaft and increases rotational speeds from
7-20 rpm to about 1,000-1,800 rpm (speed required by most generators to
produce electricity). 1800 rpm = 30 rotations/second (remember, the grid is at 60 Hz)
Wind Turbine Components: High-speed Shaft
Drives the generator.
Wind Turbine Components: Generator
Produces 60 Hertz, three-phase, AC electricity (50 Hz in Europe, Asia, and Africa)
Typically 690 Volts at generator
Transformer inside/beside tower steps up voltage to 10 kV - 30 kV
Wind Turbine Components: Anemometer
Measure the wind speed and transmits wind speed data to the controller.
Wind Turbine Components: Controller
Starts up the turbine at “cut in” wind speeds of 3.5 - 7 m/sec (8 - 16 mph)
Shuts off the turbine at “cut out” wind speed of 20 - 25 m/sec (45 - 55 mph)
Wind Turbine Components: Pitch System
Turns (or pitches) blades out of the wind to control the rotor speed, and to keep
the rotor from turning in winds that are too high or too low to produce
electricity.
Wind Turbine Components: Brake
Stops the rotor mechanically, electrically, or hydraulically in emergencies.
Wind Turbine Components: Wind Vane
Measures wind direction and communicates with the yaw drive to orient the
turbine property with respect to the wind.
Wind Turbine Components: Yaw Drive
Orients upwind turbines to keep them facing the wind as the direction changes.
Wind Turbine Components: Yaw Motor
Powers the yaw drive.
Major Wind Turbine Manufacturers
Germany
Denmark
Japan
Germany
U.S.A. Germany
China
Spain
India
Construction Logistics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IY6uSMWtM-k
Major Renewable Technology Risks
Technology Forecasting Equipment Forecasting & Siting Issues
Risk Risk Failure Points
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84BeVq2Jm88
Wind Energy: Betz’s Law
Wind Power: P = ½ρAv3 ρ = density; v = wind speed; A = Rotor Area
V2
V1
A1 A2