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# Daniel Gross

daniel.gross@yale.edu

Session 6:
Renewable Resource Assessment and Forecasting
How Wind Turbines Work
Probabilistic Analysis

## Yale University February 27, 2017

F&ES 635 / MGT 683
Renewable Energy Project Finance
Private & Confidential
Agenda
• Review and Homework
• Forecasting Renewable Resources
− Wind resource assessment and site suitability
− Probabilistic forecasting
• Probabilistic Analysis
− Normal distribution functions
− Random number generation
− Introducing random sampling and simulation into a model
• Equipment Engineering: how things work and what can go wrong
− Basic physics of wind energy
− Wind turbine components and design
− Construction logistics
− Primary technical risks
• Video of wind turbine construction
− Time permitting
Review
Assignment #4 (PPA)
• Graded Excel files have been returned
− Score sheet is on CourseWorks Assignments Page

## • Sample Answer has been provided

− CourseWorks: //Files and Resources/Homework Answer Keys/

Remember: the goal is to enable a decision maker to understand the key terms
of the agreement without reading it or looking up the defined terms
Common Errors on Assignment #5
Debt is Fixed, regardless of the Active Scenario
Remember to check for these items to make sure it is implemented correctly

 Loan size is determined based upon the CADS from the lender’s Debt
Sizing Scenario

 Loan size does not change when the Active Case is changed

 Minimum and average DSCR are not the same across cases
 Average DSCR is lower in Downside and higher in Upside

##  Equity IRR changes across cases

 Equity IRR is lower in Downside and higher in Upside
Common Errors on Assignment #5

When calculating the DSCR in every period, you want to show the ability for
the project cashflow to service the debt

This is not the same as showing the target DSCR for debt sizing purposes

## Denominator = Debt Service

 fixed, regardless of Active Scenario
 based upon the Debt Sizing scenario and target DSCR
Forecasting Wind
Wind Forecasting measure
measures
Wind data is collected from masts on site Anemometer wind speed

Wind
Vane
measures
wind
direction

More met masts are required for larger projects and complex terrain
Wind Forecasting measure

## Data Logger Computer model

Averaging interval of 10 minutes
Date Time Av1 Max1 StD1 Av2 Max2 StD2 Dir
17.04.00 21:18 4,9 6 0,5 4,9 6 0,4 172
17.04.00 21:28 5,5 6,7 0,4 5,4 6,6 0,4 166 Characteristic wind speeds
17.04.00 21:38 5,1 6,5 0,8 4,9 6,5 0,7 156 Vm, Vgust 3sec., Ve1,Ve50
17.04.00 21:48 5,8 6,6 0,4 5,4 6,7 0,4 159
17.04.00 21:58 5,1 5,8 0,4 4,9 5,8 0,4 155
17.04.00 22:08 4,6 5,7 0,8 4,7 5,6 0,8 162
17.04.00 22:18 3,1 4,1 0,4 3 3,9 0,4 168 Frequency distribution of
17.04.00 22:28 3,4 4,2 0,5 3,3 4,5 0,5 162
18.04.00 00:10 3 3,9 0,3 3 3,8 0,3 171 wind speed (Weibull)
18.04.00 00:20 3,8 6,5 1,3 3,7 6,3 1,2 171
18.04.00 00:30 4,6 5,8 0,6 4,4 5,6 0,7 158
18.04.00 00:40 4,7 6,7 1,1 4,6 6,8 1,2 167
18.04.00 00:50 5,4 6,2 0,3 5,4 6,5 0,4 169
Direction distribution of wind
18.04.00 01:00 6,3 7,5 0,6 6,1 7,6 0,6 164 (Wind rose)

Turbulence intensity
Statistical characteristics (ambient, characteristic, I)

Characteristic turbulence
Mean Wind Speed [m/s] Mean Temperature [°C] intensity for each dir. sector

## Standard Deviation Mean Air Density [kg/m³]

Average of air density
Max 3 second Gust [m/s]
Wind Forecasting correlate

On-site measurements
are correlated to
long-term data sets
from airports and
weather stations

wind speed

direction

turbulence

## Want an R2 coefficient of correlation greater than 0.8

Wind Forecasting forecast

## used to statistically 1,000 Forecast annual wind speed

(Weibull distribution)
simulate future wind 800

Hours
characteristics on-site 600
topography, wind shear at hub
200
height, and air density at site
elevation and temperature) 0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind Speed [m/s]

## Forecast wind is plotted

against the turbine's Electrical Power Output [kW] 1,750

1,500
Power Curve to calculate
Gross Output in MWh 1,250 Turbine Power Curve
1,000 (different for each
750
turbine model)
500

250

0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind Speed [m/s]
Wind Forecasting forecast

## Forecast Annual Wind Speed

(Weibull distribution)

1,200

1,000

800
Hours

600

400

200

0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind Speed [m/s]
Wind Forecasting forecast

## Turbine Power Curve cut-out speed

(different for each turbine model)

1,750
Electrical Power Output [kW]

1,250

1,000

## 750 cut-in speed

500

250

0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind Speed [m/s]

Turbine selection based upon suitability for site (CapEx vs. energy yield tradeoff)
Sensitivity is usually greater for low wind speed sites
Need for Cut-Out: a Precautionary Tale
Cut out speed and malfunction of a mechanical brake

## Hornslet, Denmark Nordtank NKT 600-180/43 turbine

Feb 22, 2008
Wind Forecasting forecast

## used to statistically 1,000 Forecast annual wind speed

(Weibull distribution)
simulate future wind 800

Hours
characteristics on-site 600
topography, wind shear at hub
200
height, and air density at site
elevation and temperature) 0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind Speed [m/s]

## against the turbine's Electrical Power Output [kW] 1,750

1,500
Power Curve to calculate
Gross Output in MWh 1,250 Turbine Power Curve
1,000 cut-in speed
(different for each
750
turbine model)
500

250

0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind Speed [m/s]
Wind Flow Modeling optimize

## Computer simulation model with significant human intervention

• Common software: Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP) by
the Department of Wind Energy at the Technical University of Denmark
• Opportunity for error
• Complex terrain is one of the greatest sources of forecast inaccuracy
Turbine layout seeks to optimize net generation subject to constraints of the site
Wind Forecasting optimize

Wind Rose
Wind direction is used
16 “slices”
to determine
N-S-E-W
optimal layout of
NE-SE-SW-NW
turbines and
minimize wake NNE-ENE-ESE-SSE
effects SSW-WSW-WNW-NNW

Wind is blowing
from SW for 12%
of the hours of
the year

## Length of the spoke indicates percentage of time the wind is

blowing from a given direction
Color of the spoke indicates wind speed
Wind Forecasting predict

Forecast of
Gross Generation is
factors to determine
Net Generation
Gross
GrossGeneration
Generation 165,000
165,000MWh
MWh

for:
Topographic
TopographicEffect
Effect 96.3%
96.3%
Wake Effect
Wake Effect 91.5%
91.5%
Electrical
ElectricalEfficiency
Efficiency 98.5%
98.5%
Availability
Availability 97.0%
97.0%
Columnar
ColumnarControl
ControlLoss
Loss 99.6%
99.6%
High Wind Hysteresis
High Wind Hysteresis 98.5%
98.5%
Icing 99.1%
99.1%
Air Density
Air Density 98.9%
98.9%
Power
PowerCurve
Curve 100.0%
100.0%

Net
NetGeneration
Generation 133,569
133,569MWh
MWh

## Availability 97% 3.0% 0.97

Wake Effect 92% + 8.0% x 0.92
Power Curve 95% + 5.0% x 0.95
Icing 95% + 5.0% x 0.95
21.0% = 0.805

## Events are independent and can occur simultaneously

• i.e., the blades are covered in ice at a time of non-availability when a
gear box is under repair
• Thus which is the correct way of thinking about Net Loss:

## Cumulative probabilities of independent events are MULTIPLICATIVE

Wind Forecasting sensitize

Long-term probability

P90 P50

𝜇 GWh/Yr

## P50: 50% of all expected outcomes exceed 100 GWh/Yr

P90: 90% of all expected outcomes exceed 93 GWh/Yr

## P-Factor: The probability of exceeding the P90 level is 90%

Wind Forecasting sensitize
P90 P50
Short-term Probability
(one-year average)
Each sample represents
a single year

## 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 130.0

𝜇
GWh

P90 P50
Long-term Probability
(ten-year average)
Each sample represents
the average of ten years

## 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 130.0

GWh

The likelihood of randomly drawing a sample from the tails one time is greater
than the likelihood of randomly drawing a sample from the tails 10 times
Wind Forecasting sensitize

## One-year average vs. longer-term averages

Another reason why on-site measurement should be for more than one year,
especially if site lacks a strong correlation to long-term data
Wind Technology Risk: Scale Up

from to

## Rated Power (kW) 30 80 250 600 1,500 5,000

Rotor Diameter (meters) 15 20 30 46 70 115
Hub Height (meters) 30 40 50 78 100 120
Capacity Factor 13% 14% 21% 26% 29% 42%
Annual Energy Yield (MWh) 35 100 450 1,350 3,750 18,250

## Average US household consumes 11 MWh per year

Wind Technology Risk: Availability

## Average Availability Since Commissioning

25%
% of Database of Wind Farms

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
80.5% 82.5% 84.5% 86.5% 88.5% 90.5% 92.5% 94.5% 96.5% 98.5%

Note: Availability rate includes downtime for electrical interconnection and grid issues unrelated to the turbine

Source:
Wind Technology Risk: Availability
Availability as a Function of Time
from Commissioning

100% 300

99% 270

98% 240

## Number of wind farms

System Availabilty [%]

97% 210

96% 180

95% 150

94% 120

93% 90
Annual moving average (left axis)
92% 60

## 91% Count of wind farms (right axis) 30

90% 0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
Years of wind farm operation
Source:
Wind Technology Risk: Predictive Accuracy

## Actual Energy Production Relative to Forecast

Source:
Probabilistic Analysis
Statistics Review
Recall from probability and statistics classes:

95.45% of the
total area under
the curve

-2𝜎 𝜇 2𝜎
-2 standard deviations Mean 2 standard deviations

Meaning: There is a 95.45% chance that any single sample drawn from this
normal population will fall within 2 standard deviations of the
mean
Statistics Review
68.26% of the population falls within + or - 1 standard deviation of the mean

68.26% of the
total area under
the curve

-1𝜎 𝜇 1𝜎
-1 standard deviation Mean 1 standard deviation
Statistics Review
We find the % area under the curve using a Z-table
84.13%
P = 68.26% — 15.87%
68.26%
-1𝜎 𝜇 +1𝜎
Z-score

## Where Z represents a number of standard deviations above or below the mean,

and P represents probability

Z P
(# std. devs.) (area under normal curve) P = 84.13%
+1 0.8413
-1𝜎 𝜇 +1𝜎

-1 0.1587 P = 15.87%
-1𝜎 𝜇 +1𝜎

Areas under the curve (probabilities) always “sweep” from the left to the right
Area under
How much area is under the curve at Z = -0.674? the curve =
25%

-0.674 𝜇
Z-score

## 1. Z-score is negative, so use

a negative Z-table

## 2. Look up the unit and

tenths value (-0.6)

3. Find the
corresponding decimal
value (round between
0.07 and 0.08)
Finding Z
The Z table is useful if you want to know the probability of something falling
within 1, 2, 3, etc. standard deviations of the mean

Z P
(# std. devs.) (area under normal curve)

-0.674 25.00%

+1 84.13%
+2 97.72%
+3 99.86%

But if you know the probability which interests you, how can you translate it
into a number of standard deviations from the mean?

## You can look through all of the numbers in a Z table…

or you can use Excel
Finding Z in Excel NORM.S.INV

= NORM.S.INV (Probability)

## Prob # Std. Devs.

⇒ NORM.S.INV (84.13%) = 1.000 above the 𝜇

## (25%) = - 0.674 below the 𝜇

Significance If I know P50 wind and P75 wind (or P90, P95, etc)…

## …I can figure out the mean and standard deviation of the

whole distribution

Thus I can graph the entire curve and find any p-level that interests me
Beware the language
Probability vs. Probability of Exceedance (p-value)

greater than X
P75

75% of area

X 𝜇

## But when we think about P75 in terms of its Z-score, we would

describe it as the number of standard deviations at which there is a
25% probability that the random sample will be lower

Probability is 1 – p-value
If you know 2 p-values, you know them all…
P50 = 15 GWh By definition, the mean (𝜇)
P75 = 12 GWh
P75 P50

25% of the
area under
curve

12 15 GWh
𝜇

Probability NORM.S.INV
(the Z score)

25% -0.674
If you know 2 p-values, you know them all…
P75 = 0.674 standard deviations below the mean
P50 = the mean

and P75 = 12 GWh

P75 P75

## Then… 12 GWh = 15 GWh – 0.674𝜎

0.674𝜎 = 3 GWh
3 GWh
𝜎= = 4.45 GWh
0.674
The power of Excel
Once you know the mean (𝜇) and standard deviation (𝜎) of a normal
distribution, there’s a lot you can do with Excel

## 1) If you know a particular value of X (e.g. a number of

GWh/year), you can find the probability that any randomly
sampled year will be less than or equal to that value

⇒ Find P, given X

## 2) If you want to sensitize your results to a specific probability level,

you can find the value of X (e.g. GWh/year) that will deliver it

⇒ Find X, given P
Finding probability, given X NORM.DIST

To find the probability that a random sample from the population will be less
than the value of X

## What is the area as a %

of the whole curve? Tells Excel we want a
13.05% cumulative probability
FALSE = probability
X 𝜇
mass function,
10 15
applicable to discrete
(non-continuous)
= NORM.DIST(X , MEAN , STD DEV , TRUE) distributions

## Example: 𝜇 = 15 GWh How would we describe 10 GWh

𝜎 = 4.45 GWh In terms of P50, P75, etc.?

## = NORM.DIST(10 , 15 , 4.45 , TRUE) = 13.05%

So there is an 86.95% probability that actual wind will be greater than 10 GWh

## Thus 10 GWh is P86.95

Finding X, given a probability NORM.INV

𝜎 = 4.45 GWh
10% of the area
under the curve
X 𝜇=15 GWh
9.30

## = NORM.INV (10%, 15, 4.45) = 9.30 GWh

So there is 90% probability that any random year will exceed 9.30 GWh

## Thus P90 = 9.30 GWh

AGAIN… beware the language
Probability vs. Probability of Exceedance (p-value)

greater than X
P75

75% of area

X 𝜇

## This is 25% (not 75%)!!!

Probability is 1 – p-value
Application for financial forecasts
In any year, there is an equal and independent chance that the energy output
will be any point under the curve

Randomly sampled
outcomes
**
* *
*** * *
*
Each point corresponds GWh
to a single, specific
probability (or area
under the curve)

GWh

It’s more likely that the random sample will come from the
middle of the curve rather then from the tails
Random number generation
Excel can generate a random number to simulate the “sampling” process of
what the actual wind might be in a given year

## • Delivers a random number between 0 and 1

= RAND() ⇒
• Distribution is even (non-normal)

## If repeated enough times, the

distribution looks like this

## Significance: This random value is a probability (0-100%). If run through a

NORM.INV function, it will translate into a value of X
corresponding into the amount of wind in that period
Demo of forecast with random variation

## Frequency Forecast Expected

30 Mean 15.3 15.0
Std Dev 4.11 4.45

25

20

15

10

0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
GWh of Annual Generation

## Histogram represents 100 independent (random) samples from the population

Summary of functions for normal distributions
If you know And you want Use

## Probability of selecting the Corresponding number of

sample from a normal curve standard deviations from the
(i.e. the % of the area under mean NORM.S.INV
the curve) (i.e. the Z score)

## The Z Score Probability NORM.S.DIST

X
Probability, Mean, Std. Dev. (i.e. the value corresponding
to the relevant % of area NORM.INV
under the curve)

Probability
(i.e. the % of the area under
X, Mean, Std. Dev. the curve between a lower NORM.DIST
limit and X)
Homework
This Week’s Assignment

1) Technical Reports
• Read the 2 Technical Reports
- extract key data for the financial model
- summarize technical risks and mitigating factors

## 2) Probabilistic Analysis and Forecasting

• Create an Excel worksheet analyzing the P-values in the reports
- use statistical concepts to calculate probability distribution functions
- create a stochastic forecast for wind power generation based upon a
“random draw”

## Due March 5 (11:59pm)

Equipment Engineering: WIND
Air pressure
Air has mass

## − A 1-inch square column of air

extending from the surface of
the Earth up to the upper limit
of the atmosphere (~50 mles)

## − So… at sea level, the

atmosphere exerts pressure
on the Earth at a force of
14.7 lbs / in2

## Air pressure diminishes at higher altitudes or when air is less dense

What is Wind?
Wind is the movement of air in response to atmospheric pressure differences
− Pressure differences arise from differential heating on Earth’s surface.

## air is more dense air is less dense

Cold Warm
High Pressure Air flow = Wind Low Pressure
Wind Energy: Basics Physics
Wind  Turbine Blade Rotation  Power
(Kinetic Energy) (Mechanical Energy) (Electrical Energy)

## Kinetic Energy: Ek = ½ m v2 m = mass; v = velocity

− The energy of motion
− Usually measured in joules

## Mass of air: m = ρV ρ = density; V = volume

− The mass of a body of air with a given At sea level and 15°C,
volume and air density air density = 1.225 kg/m3
− Usually measured in kg or 0.0765 lb/ft3

## Kinetic Energy for Wind: Ek = ½ (ρV) v2

Wind Energy: Wind Power Equation
Kinetic Energy for Wind: Ek = ½ (ρV) v2 ρ = density; V = volume; v = velocity

Power: P = Ek /t t = time
− Power is “the rate of doing work” (i.e., energy divided by time)
− Usually measured in Watts
Ek ½ (ρV) v2 How do we calculate
P= = the Volume?
t t
Consider a small time period, Δt
Δ distance
Velocity = therefore… Δ distance = velocity * Δ time
Δ time
= v * Δt
During this small time period, the Volume of air moving over the turbine blades
= the Area swept by the turbine * distance that the air travels

A = rotor-swept area

## Volume = Area * distance

= A * vΔt
Wind Energy: Wind Power Equation
Kinetic Energy for Wind: Ek = ½ (ρV) v2 ρ = density; V = volume; v = velocity

Power: P = Ek /t t = time
Ek ½ (ρV) v2
P= =
t t

## Volume: V = Av Δt A = rotor-swept area

In the Kinetic Energy for Wind formula, replace V with the equation above

## ½ ρ (Av Δt) v2 ½ ρ (Av Δt) v2

Kinetic Energy for Wind: P = Δt = = ½ ρAv3
Δt

## Wind Power: P = ½ρAv3

Wind Energy: Wind Power Equation
Wind Power: P = ½ρAv3
Wind Power is proportional to

 Area = π r2

## So power is also proportional to:

Wind Power: Base Case
Wind Power: P = ½ρAv3 Wind Power is proportional to:
− ρ = density −area swept by rotor
− A = rotor area −wind speed cubed
− v = wind speed
1,000

## Base Inputs 900

− P1 = ½ρAv3
Base Case Power Production Profile
800

700

600
POWER (MW)
500

400

300

200

100

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
WIND SPEED (METRES PER SECOND)

## Base Inputs Area-varied Curve Velocity-varied Curve

Wind Power: 2x Rotor Area
Wind Power: P = ½ρAv3 Wind Power is proportional to:
− ρ = density −area swept by rotor
− A = rotor area −wind speed cubed
− v = wind speed
1,000

− P1 = ½ρAv3 800

600

500

## −P2 = ½ρ(2A)v3 400

300

200

100

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
WIND SPEED (METRES PER SECOND)

## Base Inputs Area-varied Curve Velocity-varied Curve

Wind Power: 2x Wind Speed
Wind Power: P = ½ρAv3 Wind Power is proportional to:
− ρ = density −area swept by rotor
− A = rotor area −wind speed cubed
− v = wind speed
1,000

− P1 = ½ρAv3 800

600

500

300

200

## 2x Wind Velocity 100

−P3 = ½ρA(2v)3 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
WIND SPEED (METRES PER SECOND)

## Base Inputs Area-varied Curve Velocity-varied Curve

Wind Power: All Together
Wind Power: P = ½ρAv3 Wind Power is proportional to:
− ρ = density −area swept by rotor
− A = rotor area −wind speed cubed
− v = wind speed
1,000

− P1 = ½ρAv3 800

700

600

Side by Side

500

300

200

## 2x Wind Velocity 100

−P3 = ½ρA(2v)3 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
WIND SPEED (METRES PER SECOND)

## Wind Power: P2 = 2P1 ; P3 = 8P1 → Wind Speed Makes a Project!

Turbulence
Random and continuously changing air motions that are superimposed on the
wind’s average motion

## Two primary kinds of turbulence

− Convective: the sun heats the earth unevenly (vegetation vs. rocks & sand),
warm air has less density and ascends, cool air has greater density and
descends, there are pockets of air at the same altitude with different density
− Mechanical: Obstacles such as trees, buildings, wind turbines, and terrain
can deflect wind flow causing wakes near and downwind of the obstacles
Turbulence Intensity and Wind Energy
Turbulence is often measured using a metric called Turbulence intensity:

## Turbulence Intensity: Iv = σv / ν σv = standard deviation ; ν = avg. wind speed

− σv is most often the standard deviation of the 10-minute wind series

## Turbulence impacts the wind power curve in unpredictable ways:

− In theory, one could conceive turbulent flows that increase power output.
− In practice, chaotic nature of turbulence usually results in reduced output.
Wind Shear
A change in wind speed or direction over a short distance in the atmosphere
− Can result from weather front interactions, obstacle such as mountains,
and differential heating of air (amongst other things)

## Three types of wind shear:

− Directional, or changes in wind direction at different atmospheric heights
− Speed, or changes in wind speed at different heights (generally increasing).
− A combination of both speed and directional shear
Wind Shear and Wind Turbines
Wind shear has two primary impacts on wind turbines:
− A principal cause of noise levels as turbines propagate noise from higher
parts of the atmosphere downward
− Can put mechanical stress on turbines, as different speeds at the top and
bottom of a turbine can exert a torque (turning force) on the rotor
Wind Turbine Components
A horizontal-axis wind turbine consists of three key parts:
− The Blades, which lift and rotate when wind blows over them.
− The Nacelle, which converts kinetic energy into electricity.
− The Tower, which houses Nacelle and blades and connects to the grid.

Nacelle Interior
Wind Turbine Components: Tower
Made from tubular steel (shown here), concrete, or steel lattice.
Supports the structure of the turbine.
Wind Turbine Components: Nacelle
Sits atop the tower and contains most of the component parts.
Some are large enough for a helicopter to land on!
Wind Turbine Components: Rotor
Blades and the hub together form the Rotor.
Lifts and rotates when wind is blown over them, causing the rotor to spin.
Rotor spins at 7-20 rotations per minute
At 20 rpm, the tip of a 45 meter blade is spinning at 340 km/hr (~ 210 mph)
Wind Turbine Components: Low-speed Shaft
Wind Turbine Components: Gear Box
Connects the low- to the high-speed shaft and increases rotational speeds from
7-20 rpm to about 1,000-1,800 rpm (speed required by most generators to
produce electricity). 1800 rpm = 30 rotations/second (remember, the grid is at 60 Hz)
Wind Turbine Components: High-speed Shaft
Drives the generator.
Wind Turbine Components: Generator
Produces 60 Hertz, three-phase, AC electricity (50 Hz in Europe, Asia, and Africa)
Typically 690 Volts at generator
Transformer inside/beside tower steps up voltage to 10 kV - 30 kV
Wind Turbine Components: Anemometer
Measure the wind speed and transmits wind speed data to the controller.
Wind Turbine Components: Controller
Starts up the turbine at “cut in” wind speeds of 3.5 - 7 m/sec (8 - 16 mph)
Shuts off the turbine at “cut out” wind speed of 20 - 25 m/sec (45 - 55 mph)
Wind Turbine Components: Pitch System
Turns (or pitches) blades out of the wind to control the rotor speed, and to keep
the rotor from turning in winds that are too high or too low to produce
electricity.
Wind Turbine Components: Brake
Stops the rotor mechanically, electrically, or hydraulically in emergencies.
Wind Turbine Components: Wind Vane
Measures wind direction and communicates with the yaw drive to orient the
turbine property with respect to the wind.
Wind Turbine Components: Yaw Drive
Orients upwind turbines to keep them facing the wind as the direction changes.
Wind Turbine Components: Yaw Motor
Powers the yaw drive.
Major Wind Turbine Manufacturers

Germany

Denmark
Japan
Germany

U.S.A. Germany
China

Spain

India
Construction Logistics

Major Renewable Technology Risks
Technology Forecasting Equipment Forecasting & Siting Issues
Risk Risk Failure Points

## Wind Medium Medium • gearboxes • topography

• bearings • poor correlation
• blades • short sampling period
• visibility/landscape
• aircraft
• bird/bat strikes

## Solar Low Low • inverters • land use changes (shadow, soiling)

• encapsulation • micro-climate
• visibility
• reflection

## Hydro Low High • silt • drought

• fish • land use changes
• fish and ecosystem
• flooding
Geothermal Low High • corrosion • dry hole
• neighboring development
• drilling
Siting Concerns
Siting Concerns
Wind Turbine Construction (5 minutes)

Wind Energy: Betz’s Law
Wind Power: P = ½ρAv3 ρ = density; v = wind speed; A = Rotor Area

## The usable wind power is less than the equation suggests:

− If all kinetic energy were extracted, air would stop after the turbine blades
− This does not happen, so only part of the energy is used
− Conservation of mass implies that ρ A1v1= ρ A2v2
− Since the exit speed v2< entry speed v1 , the area A2 must be larger than A1

V2
V1

A1 A2

## Speed of Wind Entering Turbine > Speed of Wind Exiting Turbine

Wind Energy: Betz’s Law
Reference power, Pwind = ½ρAv1 ……..…………………...…………..(1)
Recall that ρA1v1= ρA2v2 = ρAv (on rotor surface)……………..(2)
Also, it can be proven that v = ½(v1 + v2)…………..………………(3)
Effective Power: Difference between the power entering and exiting the turbine.

## Peff = P1 – P2 = ½ρA1v13 - ½ρA2v23 = ½(ρA1v1)v12- ½(ρA2v2)v22

= ½(ρAv)v12- ½(ρAv)v22 = ½ρAv(v12 - v22) = ¼ρA(v1 + v2)(v12 - v22)…using (2) & (3)
Power Coefficient: Cp = Peff/Pwind = (v1 + v2)(v12 - v22)/2v13 ………………using (1)
To simplify, assume v2/v1 = x…….= (v1 + xv1)(v12 – x2v12)/2v13 = (1 + x)(1 - x2)/2
Setting the derivative to find max: dCp/dx = 0 = –2x + 1 – 3x2 = (3x - 1)(x + 1)
Therefore, x = ⅓ gives max value of Cp (we dismiss x = -1 as a spurious solution)
Maximum Power: Cp(x = ⅓) = (1 + ⅓)(1 - ⅟9)/2 = 0.592593
No turbine can capture more than 59.3% of the kinetic energy in wind
(i.e., the efficiency of an ideal wind turbine is 59.3%)

## Нижнее меню

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