TRIP GENERATION

•Is the process of estimating the number of

Trips that will begin or end in each zone
within a study area
TRIP GENERATION ESTIMATE
TRIP GENERATION ESTIMATE
• Estimate by Regression Model
• Estimate by Trip Rates
• Estimate by Cross Classification or Category
Analysis
• Estimate by Balancing Trip Productions and
Attraction
TRIP RATES
CROSS CLASSIFICATION
CROSS CLASSIFICATION
• Extension of simple trip rate models
• Sometimes referred to as category analysis model, is
based on the assumption that the number of trips
generated by similar households or households
belonging to the same category is the same.
• The model predicts the trips produced by a zone by simply
aggregating the total trips produced by the all the households in
that zone.

INPUT
A. Survey
• Conduct a survey of households in the Study Area
• Categorize the according to income and auto ownership

B. Graphs
Graphs
No. of HH in Category = HH x I% x A%
Trips in Category = Trip rate x No of HH in Category

where I = Zone income versus % of household in each income category

A = Auto Ownership versus % of household in each income category
T = Trips per household versus income category
No. of HH in Category
No. of Trips in Category
DISCRETE CHOICE METHOD
Introduction
•Modeling travel behavior is a key aspect of
demand analysis, where aggregate demand
is the accumulation of individuals’ decisions.
The most important short-term travel
decisions include choice of destination for a
non-work trip, choice of travel mode, choice
of departure time and choice of route.
Introduction
•It is important to note that short-term
decisions are conditional on long-term travel
and mobility decisions such as car ownership
and residential and work locations.
Discrete Choice Analysis
- is the methodology used to analyze and
predict travel decisions.
Random Utility Model
- is the most common theoretical basis of
discrete choice models.
Two Specific Short Term Travel
Decisions:
•route choice
•departure time choice.
 General Framework of
Discrete Choice Models
1. Decision-maker
•Defining the decision-making entity and its
characteristics;
•Individual (person/household)
•Socio-economic characteristics (e.g. Age,
gender,income, vehicle ownership)
 General Framework of
Discrete Choice Models
2. Alternatives
•Determining the options available to the
decisionmaker;
•Decision-maker n selects one and only one
alternative from a choice set Cn={1,2,…,i,…,Jn}
with Jn alternatives
 General Framework of
Discrete Choice Models
3. Attributes
•Measuring the benefits and costs of an
alternative to the decision-maker;
example: travel time and cost
 General Framework of Discrete
Choice Models
4. Decision rule
•Describing the process used by the decision-
maker to choose an alternative.
•Dominance, satisfaction, utility etc.
Example:
Travel Mode to Work
• Decision maker: an individual worker
• Choice: whether to drive to work
or take the bus to work
• Goods: bus, auto
• Utility function: U(X) = U(bus, auto)
• Consumption bundles: {1,0} (person takes bus)
{0,1} (person drives)
 What will be the Consumer’s Choice?
•Consumers maximize utility – Choose the
alternative that has the maximum utility (and
falls within the income constraint)
If U(bus) > U(auto) -> choose bus
If U(bus) < U(auto) -> choose auto
U(bus)=?
U(auto)=?
 Constructing the Utility Function
U(bus) = U(walk time, in-vehicle time, fare, …)
U(auto) = U(travel time, parking cost, …)
• Assume linear (in the parameters) U(bus) = β1×(walk time) +
β2 ×(in-vehicle time) + …
• Parameters represent tastes, which may vary over people.
• Include socio-economic characteristics (e.g., age, gender,
income)
• U(bus) = β1 ×(walk time) + β2 ×(in-vehicle time) + β3
×(cost/income) + …
•
Deterministic Binary Choice
If U(bus) - U(auto) > 0 , Probability(bus) = 1
• If U(bus) - U(auto) < 0 , Probability(bus) = 0
TRIP BALANCING
 TRIP BALANCING
• Final step in trip generation
• One of the premises of trip generation is that total productions must equal total
attractions.
• However, since trip production and attraction models are independently
developed, this equality is not guaranteed.
• To bring the regional totals in balance, either the zonal productions or attractions
are scaled to equal regional control totals.
• The ratio of area productions to attractions by purpose should be between 0.9
and 1.1 before balancing. If there is not a close match, reasons for the lack of
match should be investigated.
 BALANCING ATTRACTIONS AND
PRODUCTIONS
• In the majority of cases especially home-based trips, the control totals of trips
are the regional totals of trip productions by purpose.
• This is due to the fact that generally there is a greater degree of confidence in
household data than in employment data.
• Usually, models for predicting productions are better models.
• The exception is for non-home-based (NHB) trips where trip attractions are
used as the control totals and productions are scaled to match attraction totals.
 EXAMPLE: Home-Based Work (HBW)
Computed Attractions and Productions
Traffic Analysis Zone Productions Attractions
(TAZ)
1 25 980
2 125 330
3 350 490
4 800 70
5 600 230
TOTAL 1900 2100
Solution: Use trip productions as control total

Calculate the balancing factor fb :

∑ܲ𝑖 1900
fb = = = 0.9048
∑𝐴𝑖 2100

Factor the adjusted attractions:

Ai’ = fb * A
 Adjusted Attractions and Productions
TAZ Productions 0.9048 * Attractions
1 25 0.9048*980 = 887
2 125 0.9048*330 = 299
3 350 0.9048*490 = 443
4 800 0.9048*70 = 63
5 600 0.9048*230 = 208
TOTAL 1900 1900