Asia After Trump

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Joseph S. Nye April 9, 2018

SINGAPORE – When the Trilateral Commission – a group of political and business leaders,
journalists, and academics – met here recently, many expressed concern about the decline
of American leadership in Asia. Every Asian country now trades more with China than with
the United States, often by a margin of two to one. That concern has been exacerbated by
President Donald Trump’s recent imposition of tariffs and expressions of contempt for
multilateral institutions. A frequently heard question in Singapore: Will US leadership in Asia
survive the Trump years?

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History provides some perspective. In 1972, President Richard Nixon unilaterally imposed
tariffs on America’s allies without warning, violated the framework of the International
Monetary Fund, and pursued an unpopular war in Vietnam. Fear of terrorism was
widespread, and experts expressed concern about the future of democracy.

The following year, David Rockefeller and Zbigniew Brzezinski created the Trilateral
Commission, which meets once a year to discuss such problems. Contrary to conspiracy
theories, the Commission has little power; but, like other informal channels of “track two”
diplomacy, it allows private citizens to explore ways to manage thorny issues. The results
can be found in its publications and on its website.

In Singapore, there was no consensus about Asia after Trump. For example, Indian and
Chinese members held different positions about the role of China’s “Belt and Road”
infrastructure projects. Some Asians and Americans differed over the prospects for a
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successful resolution of the Korean nuclear crisis, as well as the larger question of whether
a China-US war is inevitable. And some Europeans wondered whether the current global
uncertainty reflects the rise of China or the rise of Trump.

My own guess, which I warned the group might be wrong, is that the US can recover its
leadership after the Trump years if it relearns the lessons of using power with others as
well as over others. In other words, the US will have to use its soft power to create
networks and institutions that will allow it to cooperate with China, India, Japan, Europe,
and others to deal with transnational problems – for example, monetary stability, climate
change, terrorism, and cyber-crime – that no country can solve unilaterally. That will require
overcoming the unilateral policies and attitudes associated with the rise of Trump.

As for the rise of China, contrary to current pessimism, the US will retain important power
advantages that will last longer than even an eight-year presidency, should Trump be
reelected. The first is demography. According to United Nations data, the US is the only
developed country expected to contribute to global population growth by 2050. China, the
most populous country now, is projected to lose the top spot to India.

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The second advantage is energy. A decade ago, the US seemed hopelessly dependent on
imported energy. Now the shale revolution has transformed it from an energy importer to an
exporter, and North America may be self-sufficient in the coming decade at the same time
that China is becoming more dependent on energy imports.

Technology is a third advantage for the US. Among the technologies that will convey power
in this century are biotechnology, nanotechnology, and the next generation of information
technology, such as artificial intelligence and big data. According to most experts, while

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China’s capacity is improving, the US remains the world leader in research, development,
and commercialization of these technologies.

Moreover, in terms of the research base, America has a fourth advantage in its system of
higher education. According to a ranking by Shanghai Jiao Tong University, of the top 20
universities in the world, 16 are in the US, while none are in China.

A fifth American advantage that is likely to outlast the Trump era is the role of the dollar. Of
the foreign reserves held by the world’s governments, just 1.1% are in renminbi, compared
with 64% for the dollar. When the International Monetary Fund included the renminbi in the
currency basket underpinning its unit of account, Special Drawing Rights, many believed
the dollar’s days were numbered. But the renminbi’s share of international payments has
slipped since then. A credible reserve currency depends on deep capital markets, honest
government, and the rule of law. None is likely in China in the near future.

Sixth, the US has geographical advantages that China lacks. The US is surrounded by
oceans, and Canada and Mexico remain friendly, despite Trump’s mistaken policy of
undercutting the North American Free Trade Agreement. China, on the other hand, has
borders with 14 countries and territorial disputes with some of the most important, such as
India, Japan, and Vietnam. This limits China’s soft power. And while geography gives China
land-based power projection over the South China Sea, the US has no territorial claims
there and enjoys naval supremacy over the remaining 95% of the world’s oceans.

But, most important, the US and China are not destined for war. Neither poses an
existential threat to the other. When World War I began, Germany had surpassed Britain in
1900, and British fear of German intentions contributed to the disaster. By contrast, the US
and China have time to manage their many conflicts and need not succumb to hysteria or
fear.

The US retains not only the power advantages described above, but also its alliances with
Japan and South Korea. In any upcoming talks with North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un,
Trump will have to take care to prevent the Kim regime from achieving its long-standing
objective of weakening those alliances.

In Singapore, I quoted Lee Kuan Yew’s response to a question I once asked him about
whether China would surpass the US. He said “no,” because while China had the talents of
1.4 billion people to draw upon, the openness of the US allowed it to tap and combine the
talents of 7.5 billion people with greater creativity than China could. If that openness
survives, American leadership in Asia, and elsewhere, will most likely survive as well.

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