Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 12

http://www.bbc.

com/news/magazine-16536598

Twenty top predictions for life 100 years from now

16 January 2012

From the section Magazine

Share

Robot

In today's Magazine

Do six people die for every kilo of cocaine?

The aunt and uncle you thought were mum and dad

Can you name these unlikely friends?

My father injected me with HIV when I was a baby

Last week we asked readers for their predictions of life in 100 years time. Inspired by ten 100-year predictions made by American civil engineer
John Elfreth Watkins in 1900, many of you wrote in with your vision of the world in 2112.

Many of the "strange, almost impossible" predictions made by Watkins came true. Here is what futurologists Ian Pearson (IP) and Patrick Tucker
(PT) think of your ideas.

1. Oceans will be extensively farmed and not just for fish (Jim 300)

IP: Likelihood 10/10. We will need to feed 10 billion people and nature can't keep up with demand, so we will need much more ocean farming
for fish. But algae farming is also on the way for renewable energy, and maybe even for growth of feedstock (raw materials) or resource
extraction via GM seaweed or algae.

PT: Good chance. According to Dennis Bushnell, chief scientist at the Nasa Langley Research Center, saltwater algae that's been genetically
modified to absorb more nitrogen from the air than conventional algae could free up to 68% of the fresh water that is now tied up in
conventional agriculture. This water could go to thirsty populations.

2. We will have the ability to communicate through thought transmission (Dev 2)

IP: Likelihood 10/10. Transmission will be just as easy as other forms of brain augmentation. Picking up thoughts and relaying them to another
brain will not be much harder than storing them on the net.

PT: Good chance. Synthetic telepathy sounds like something out of Hollywood but it is absolutely possible, so long as "communication" is
understood to be electrical signals rather than words.

Brain

3. Thanks to DNA and robotic engineering, we will have created incredibly intelligent humans who are immortal (game_over)

IP: Likelihood 9/10. It is more likely that direct brain links using electronics will achieve this, but GM will help a lot by increasing longevity -
keeping people alive until electronic immortality technology is freely available at reasonable cost.

PT: Good chance. The idea that breakthroughs in the field of genetics, biotechnology and artificial intelligence will expand human intelligence
and allow our species to essentially defeat death is sometimes called the Singularity.

4. We will be able to control the weather (mariebee_)

IP: Likelihood 8/10. There is already some weather control technology for mediating tornadoes, making it rain and so on, and thanks to climate
change concerns, a huge amount of knowledge is being gleaned on how weather works. We will probably have technology to be able to control
weather when we need to. It won't necessarily be cheap enough to use routinely and is more likely to be used to avoid severe damage in key
areas.

PT: Good chance. We will certainly attempt to. A majority of scientists in the US support a federal programme to explore methods for
engineering the Earth's climate (otherwise known as geoengineering). These technologies aim to protect against the worst effects of manmade
climate change.

More readers' predictions


English will be spelled phonetically (jim300)

Growing your own vegetables will not be allowed (holierthanthou)

The justice system will be based purely on rehabilitation (Paul)

Instead of receiving information from the media, people will download information directly into their brains (krozier93)

Crops will be grown in sand (jim300)

5. Antarctica will be "open for business" (Dev 2)

IP: Likelihood 8/10. The area seems worth keeping as a natural wilderness so I am hesitant here, but I do expect that pressure will eventually
mean that some large areas will be used commercially for resources. It should be possible to do so without damaging nature there if the
technology is good enough, and this will probably be a condition of exploration rights.

PT: Pretty close. Before there is a rush to develop Antarctica we will most likely see a full-scale rush to develop the Arctic. Whether the Arctic
states tighten control over the region's resources, or find equitable and sustainable ways to share them will be a major political challenge in the
decades ahead. Successful (if not necessarily sustainable) development of the Arctic portends well for the development of Antarctica.

6. One single worldwide currency (from Kennys_Heroes)

IP: Likelihood 8/10. This is very plausible. We are already seeing electronic currency that can be used anywhere, and this trend will continue. It
is quite likely that there will be only a few regional currencies by the middle of the century and worldwide acceptance of a global electronic
currency. This will gradually mean the others fall out of use and only one will left by the end of the century.

PT: Great try! The trend on this is actually more in the opposite direction. The internet is enabling new forms of bartering and value exchange.
Local currencies are also now used by several hundred communities across the US and Europe. In other words, look for many more types of
currency and exchange not fewer, in the coming decades.

7. We will all be wired to computers to make our brains work faster (Dev 2)

Big Morongo Wildlife Preserve (2007)

Image caption

Will deserts become tropical forests?

IP: Likelihood 10/10. We can expect this as soon as 2050 for many people. By 2075 most people in the developed world will use machine
augmentation of some sort for their brains and, by the end of the century, pretty much everyone will. If someone else does this you will have to
compete.

8. Nanorobots will flow around our body fixing cells, and will be able to record our memories (Alister Brown)

PT: Good chance. Right now, medical nanorobots exist only in theory and nanotechnology is mostly a materials science. But it's a rapidly
growing field. Nanorobots exist within the realm of possibility, but the question of when they will arrive is another matter

IP: Likelihood: 7/10.

9. We will have sussed nuclear fusion (Kennys_Heroes)

IP: Likelihood 10/10. This is likely by 2045-2050 and almost certain by 2100. It's widely predicted that we will achieve this. What difference it
makes will depend on what other energy technologies we have. We might also see a growth in shale gas or massive solar energy facilities. I
don't think that wind power will be around.

10. There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin (Bill Walker)

IP: Likelihood 8/10. This does look like a powerful trend, other languages don't stand a lot of chance. Minor languages are dying at a huge rate
already and the other major ones are mostly in areas where everyone educated speaks at least one of the other three. Time frame could be
this century.

Elevator - artwork by Gabriel Orozco

Image caption

Space elevators 'will certainly be around'

11. Eighty per cent of the world will have gay marriage (Paul)
IP: Likelihood 8/10. This seems inevitable to those of us in the West and is likely to mean different kinds of marriages being available to
everyone. Gay people might pick different options from heterosexual people, but everyone will be allowed any option. Some regions will be
highly resistant though because of strong religious influences, so it isn't certain.

12. California will lead the break-up of the US (Dev 2)

IP: Likelihood 8/10. There are some indications already that California wants to split off and such pressures tend to build over time. It is hard to
see this waiting until the end of the century. Maybe an East Coast cluster will want to break off too. Pressures come from the enormous
differences in wealth generation capability, and people not wanting to fund others if they can avoid it.

13. Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy (Ahdok)

IP: Likelihood 8/10. First space elevators will certainly be around, and although "cheap" is a relative term, it will certainly be a lot cheaper than
conventional space development. It will create a strong acceleration in space development and tourism will be one important area, but I doubt
the costs will be low enough for most people to try.

14. Women will be routinely impregnated by artificial insemination rather than by a man (krozier 93)

PT: Pretty close. At the very least, more couples are choosing advanced fertility techniques over old-fashioned conception. Pre-implantation
genetic diagnosis, in which an artificially inseminated embryo is carefully selected among other inseminated embryos for desirability, is
becoming increasingly common in fertility clinics. Using this technique, it's now possible to screen an embryo for about half of all congenital
illnesses. Within the next decade, researchers will be able to screen for almost all congenital illnesses prior to embryo implantation.

IP: Likelihood 5/10.

15. There will be museums for almost every aspect of nature, as so much of the world's natural habitat will have been destroyed
(LowMaintenanceLifestyles)

PT: Pretty close. I cannot comment on the museums but the Earth is on the verge of a significant species extinction event. Protecting
biodiversity in a time of increased resource consumption, overpopulation, and environmental degradation will require continued sacrifice on
the part of local, often impoverished communities. Experts contend that incorporating local communities' economic interests into conservation
plans will be essential to species protection in the next century.

IP: Likelihood 2/10.

16. Deserts will become tropical forests (jim300)

IP: Likelihood 7/10. Desert greening is progressing so this is just about possible.

Hands

17. Marriage will be replaced by an annual contract (holierthanthou)

IP: Likelihood 6/10. I think we will certainly see some weaker forms of marriage that are designed to last a decade or two rather than a whole
lifetime, but traditional marriage will still be an option. Increasing longevity is the key - if you marry at 20 and live to well over 100, that is far
too long a commitment. People will want marriages that aren't necessarily forever, but don't bankrupt them when they end.

18. Sovereign nation states will cease to exist and there will be one world government (krozier93)

PT: Great try! However, I think that the trend is in the direction of more sovereign nations rather than fewer. In the coming years, corporations
or wealthy private citizens will attempt to use earth-moving technologies to build their own semi-sovereign entities in international waters.

IP: Likelihood 2/10.

19. War by the West will be fought totally by remote control (LowMaintenanceLifestyles)

IP: Likelihood 5/10.

20. Britain will have had a revolution (holierthanthou)

IP: Likelihood 7/10. Well, possible, but not as likely as some other trends.

You can continue to contribute to the debate on Twitter using the hashtag #100yearpredictions. Ian Pearson is a future technology consultant
and conference speaker. Patrick Tucker is spokesperson for the World Future Society and deputy editor of The Futurist magazine.
The Philippines Might Not be Around a Hundred Years from Now

hat would Southeast Asia in 2109 look like? What countries would make UP the region? Who would be the major players? What countries
might no longer be around? Sidewalks in downtown Manila; noisy, crowded, and swarming with children who will be tomorrow's adultsThe
Philippines as we know it might no longer exist a hundred years from now. I could end UP a 'failed state' 'absorbed' by one or more of its
powerful neighbors. Below are a few disturbing trends we see today that cause us to arrive at such a dire conclusion:

● Rice production in the Philippines may fall by 50 to 70 percent by the year 2020 according to Oxfam International due to global
warming. Hardest hit will be countries near the equator like the Philippines where hot temperatures will get even hotter. A one degree rise in
temperature causes a 10 percent drop in rice yield per hectare according to the Oxfam study which was prepared for the recently concluded G8
summit.

● The recently released 2009 World Competitiveness Yearbook places the Philippines dead last among the countries in the Asia-Pacific
region. The country ranked poorly in economic performance, government efficiency, business efficiency, and infrastructure. The study also
noted that the Philippines has the highest pupil-teacher ratio in secondary education among 57 countries.

● Filipinos lag behind their Asian neighbors in science, technology and Innovation STI). Philippine Senator Edgardo Angara points out
that the Philippines only produces 12 scientists and engineers per one million population. According to Angara that number is not even half of
the United Nation's requirement for the sustainable development of a country.

● The Philippines has for the past decade ranked among the most corrupt countries in the world. This perception is not only prevalent
among foreigners who have worked in the Philippines, but also among Filipinos who now live or work in other countries. Transparency
International and Political and Economic Risk Consultancy are just two of the many organizations that have consistently rated the Philippines as
highly corrupt.

● The Philippine Military is generally perceived as corrupt and disorganized, with poorly trained and ill-equipped men and women. The
Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has only one vintage destroyer and no jet fighter aircraft to speak of. The AFP is even unable to decisively
eliminate the Abu Sayyaf bandits from Southern Mindanao.

● Already one of the world's most populous countries, the population of the Philippines is estimated to balloon to 101 million by 2015
according to the World Bank. The 1935 inauguration of President Manuel L. Quezon as the President of the Philippine CommonwealthThus any
incremental gains made in economic development, food production, climate control. and energy conservation are sadly offset by its exploding
population.

At this juncture, the Philippines has a lot more going against it than for it. It is headed down a path of self-destruction that will inevitably
transform it into something radically different�the nightmarish reality of that brash remark by a well-intentioned Manuel
L. Quezon who proclaimed during the commonwealth period �I prefer a government run like hell by Filipinos to a government run like
heaven by Americans..." Unfortunately (or fortunately) Quezon did not live long enough to see his words become reality.

Unless fundamental changes are implemented, the Philippines will continue its downward spiral to self-destruction. Will another country step
in to pick UP the pieces of a shattered Philippines, or is it still salvageable...by Filipinos themselves? Next week we'll look at what some of those
fundamental changes might be.

Saved Comments from Our Readers

Name: Ron
City/State/Country: williams,az,usa
IP Address: 68.28.42.229

Comments

Separate the church from the state. The country cant support the sheer amount of people, birth control should be encouraged. (i joke? about
vasectomy clinics being a potential growth industry) respect for the land and its resources and each other. Create jobs and move ahead as other
Asian countries have.

Name: Bearvarine
City/State/Country: Seattle, WA
IP Address: 66.233.36.198

Comments

The country is still ruled by wealthy elites, determined to not allow the status quo to be disturbed. Consequently all the PI's best and brightest
emigrate elsewhere in search of genuine opportunity. Had they not have been able to leave, true revolution might have occurred by now. Level
the playing field by breaking up monopolistic companies and enormous land ownership by the 1% rich and politically connected, and you will
make a start.
Name: deo
City/State/Country: flour city
IP Address: 67.240.217.75

Comments

The population makes a lot of difference how the economy of any country bode well under pressure to produce more food to feed the
multitude. The increasing number of Pinoys may not be controlled until the appetite for sex of modern Pinoys is reined in; that is of male and
female, particularly the female. It was once said that "women "complained" that during sex their function is only for reproduction; that they
are not supposed to enjoy sex and just be passive in the process". But women have gone a long way! Women coming from poor and rich,
educated and less educated levels of society are demanding and enjoying sex more; especially the poor and less educated (it is their means of
"recreation"). The results are devastating to the economy of the country. In this case Pinas.

Name: Ichabod Craig


City/State/Country: USA
IP Address: 24.8.248.6

Comments

How right you are !! Every time I visit the wonderful people of the Philippines, my heart is broken to see them sink deeper and deeper into
what seems a hopeless situation of overpopulation, shrinking resources and corruption. And you are so correct that the blame must lay flat at
the feet of the catholic church and it's more than antiquated view of humanity. How I would love to see the Pilipino people rise up and take
responsibility for their lives... they are the sweetest people on earth and if they can mature and yet keep that sweetness ... wouldn't that be
something !! kindly, Ichabod Craig IV

Name: Ray Sunga


City/State/Country: Anchorage Ak
IP Address: 158.145.240.100

Comments

Population growth and the diminishing standards of Education. Filipinos are well known for our work ethics and adaptability for every obstacle.
My observation is the young generations, our novice labor exports are very poorly educated and their language skills are a shame. Even China is
hiring Filipino teachers to teach English, while our own countrymen is suffering from this handicap.

Name: ian
City/State/Country: cebu city
IP Address: 110.44.111.66

Comments

We need to have respect to put an end to that belief that Filipinos are the best example of crab mentality. encourage birth control to lessen the
number of Filipinos that suffer from poverty because of so many children to feed. "kung sino pa ang walang trabaho ay sya pang maraming
anak". Plus, add to that the corrupt government that we have.

Name: Jun Umali


City/State/Country: Illinois,USA
IP Address: 24.12.15.82

Comments
The main root of our problem is basically very simple, we totally forget, ignore, placed no value in the existence of our being. The crucial
question is Do we know who we are. We need education on this matter. and when we discover WHO WE ARE and believe what we are here for,
dramatic change will occur.

Name: mockingmaya
City/State/Country: taft avenue, manila
IP Address: 98.224.12.187

Comments

Equal access to quality education may be a great equalizer between the rich & less-fortunate, or the poor Filipino students. But the truth is
often avoided, that public schools are below standard in age of technology, information, & globalization. Some corrupt politicians will never
appeal to the reality: one of the objectives of education is to make free minds & statesmen, not to create serfs & slaves for banana republic.

Name: Clark S
City/State/Country: Sent via email

Comments

As a friend of the Philippines and Filipino people I read the editorial advising steps the country needs to take for a better future with great
excitement. Not for me, an outsider, to tell Filipinos what to do, but I was so glad to see you point out the hard choices that need to be made. I
hope Filipinos are ready to begin embracing those big changes.

Name: WDC
City/State/Country: California
IP Address: 63.193.188.81

Comments

Philippines has a pervasive corruptions claimed by the US think tank? Not only pervasive, I would say Philippines is 100% covered of corruption.
Look at those people who head the barangays, from rags to riches. Whose fault is it if the Filipino people are always living impoverished?
Themselves, they allow these corruption as part of their cultures.

Name: George
City/State/Country: UK
IP Address: 92.15.77.222

Comments

I found your article very honest. I am married to a Filipina for 26 years and I first visited in 1985. Although the gap between rich and poor
remains vast, I have seen Manila getting better in infrastructure, yet it has never managed to create the hub for foreign manufacture, this has
gone to Malaysia. Success stories like ‘Shoe Mart’ are very few in the Philippines. The lack of environmental respect: The illegal logging - Over-
fishing of the seas - coral destroyed by dynamite - tax evasion by the rich – corrupt politicians and those in power stealing from ALL Filipinos.
The thing that makes me sad is that when I look at other Asian counties who have invested in tourism, education and wonder what could have
been. Its not too late but the rich and greedy need to have a conscience.

Name: Bob Frantz


City/State/Country: Branson, Mo. U.S.A.
IP Address: 173.218.42.89

Comments
I love the Philippines and it's people, been there to visit several times. the idea on controlling birth rate won't work. how would u enforce it?
Put mothers, fathers in prison? And no, it didn't work in China, all girl babies were killed in flavor of boys who grow up to help the family,
besides, that's a dictatorship, do u really want to go in that direction? What u need is education. Many families don't have the money to send
their kids to school..for books, supplies etc. grades 1 thru 12 must be 100% free for every child. but I wish u luck and hope things turn around
very soon...

Name: Jeric Leviste


City/State/Country: Los Angeles, CA
IP Address: 64.60.205.235

Comments

You hit the spots why our country is like it is right now, and issues that we need to address and challenge. I do hope so that President Aquino
will do what he needs to do to make our country stand out, prosperous and gain the love back of Filipinos for their own country. Loving your
own country makes a big difference but ONLY if the government shows the same to the people.

Name: wilmer
City/State/Country: usa
IP Address: 99.22.245.225

Comments

Corruption is ingrained in the culture of the Philippines so that has to change. We need a Marshall plan for the country like Singapore, as well
as borrowing concepts from successful economies today like China, Brazil, and India. Turning the country Green from energy independence to
pollution control is good for the country and Tourism. Expansion and better management of Overseas Workers is a quick fix to unemployment
since the country cannot create enough jobs and yes, assign the Catholic Church to be in charge and accountable for population control with a
quota.

Name: alaskancadillac
City/State/Country: Gunsan, South Korea
IP Address: 218.151.0.130

Comments

I see no Identity problem with the Philippine people. It's the deployment of cheap labor, It's the abandonment of the Philippines to keep Their
Resources in country to build a proper infrastructure to bring Philippines out of the dark ages. The catholic church for failing the Philippine
people on educating them on birth control to curb booming populations. The fathers of children that have been abandoned for another and so
on and so on. Philippine people are for the most part an "Honest People". But in the last 4 years, I have heard nothing but scams, internet
scandals and such. I love the Philippines as I am Half Filipino, I am saddened by what I see. It's time the Politicians there put aside "Personal
Gain" and really started working for the people that have elected them.

ith 2010 now part of history, we ask you our readers, given our past, where will be we a decade hence? For the optimists amongst us,
the signs are obvious: the gigantic shopping malls, the high-rise condos, the internet cafes, everyone walking around with the latest
mobile phone. The PH—the country's new initials—is sprinting towards economic development. Optimists see the glass as half full.

At the other end of the spectrum are those like us who see polluted rivers and streams, traffic-clogged thoroughfares, a population bursting at
the seams, growing scarcity of resources, rising numbers of uneducated youth, and a population that already lacks the skills necessary to go
head-to-head with many of their Asian counterparts. We pessimists see the the PH falling further and further behind. The glass to us is
definitely half empty.

But unlike true pessimists, we see a silverlining or at least a shot at redemption if only we can change a few things in our society. Here are five
things to get us started .

1. End religion as we now know it. The Philippines has been stuck in the Dark Ages since 1521 AD when Ferdinand Magellan inadvertently
landed in Mactan. Since then Filipinos gave up control of their own destiny, attributing all their triumphs as well as failures to Providence and
Divine Intervention. Through the centuries, they surrendered their fate to divine providence and now seem incapable of taking matters into
their own hands.
2. Halt the population explosion. Do what the Chinese are doing and institute a strict one-child policy nationwide. The country's natural
resources is rapidly being depleted. And for every step forward the country takes—be it in improved farming methods or a cleaner
environment—the exploding population instead pushes it two or three steps backwards. The Philippine's relatively small land mass and limited
economic resources will soon be unable to sustain its ever-increasing population without turning into a Somalia or a Rwanda or even worse.

3. Be deadly serious about education. The only way the Philippines can extricate itself from its problems is if the Filipinos of tomorrow are
smart enough to make the right choices. Past and present generations have obviously failed the country, so let us make sure we equip
tomorrow's Filipinos with everything they need succeed where we didn't.

4. Stop putting up with mediocrity. We need to start expecting nothing but the very best. In the past and up to the present, the word "local"
stood for poor quality, a cheap imitation, an embarrassment; "imported" on the other hand stood for great quality, an expensive original,
something you boasted to your friends about. For the most part, we never put too much stock in what we made. We didn't trust the skill or
workmanship of our local products and for the most part our fellow countrymen obliged by indeed cranking out shoddy products that had to
be discarded soon after they were purchased. That has to change. Everything we do has to be 'world class" or it should not be done at all.

5. Start respecting one another. Closely tied to number four above, respect for one another is alarmingly absent in present-day Philippine
society. Ferdinand Marcos got it wrong when his Martial Law regime coined the phrase "sa ikauunlad ng bayan, disiplina ang kailangan" (for
the country to progress, discipline is needed). What we as a society need more than discipline, is respect. But since Marcos turned out to be a
despot, it is understandable why he chose discipline . This should be taught in schools from day one. And by "respect" we don't mean just the
superficial gestures like the "mano po" that children give to adults, or adding the words "po" and "ho" in every sentence. We are talking here
about true respect, where we look up to every other Filipino, young or old, rich or poor, morena or white, good-looking or otherwise. In the
past, we Filipinos have been the first to put one-another down, that must end and be replaced with respect.

If we can at least get the above changes implemented it would be a start. But if we keep things just as they are, the Philippines could be in for
another four hundred years of stagnation. Now tell us what you think. We'd like to hear what you have to say

By Sen. Loren Legarda

In 1997, 10 years after the re-establishment of the people’s representation through a bicameral legislature, I decided to run for senator of the
Republic of the Philippines. I was 37 then. In 1998, I was sworn into office as a senator.

My personal experience as a journalist of 20 years equipped me with a deep understanding and appreciation of the realities that faced our
land. My chronicles were filled with everyday stories of everyday people. It offered a reservoir of “truths” that are often overshadowed by
logical fallacies. In many of the stories I have done, the overwhelming experiences of poverty emerged.

I was a dauntless journalist, motivated by the desire to provide a voice for the people in my stories. Because of this, I made social justice,
environmentalism, cultural heritage, and women’s rights as the core themes of my work as a legislator.

Laws need to be designed to achieve the objectives of equity, social justice, and a sustainable future for all. This was my view then. This is my
view to this day.

My life as a legislator of nearly two decades is replete with stories that reflect the joys and struggles of the people. Pushing my advocacy has
not been easy all the time. The issues of climate change, the endangered cultures of our indigenous people, the vulnerability of women, are
matters that others think are just on the periphery of the bigger concerns of the economy and wealth creation. But today’s biggest challenge is
one that will destroy the economy if we fail to mitigate and adapt to the realities of climate change.

There are three policy streams on climate change adaptation and disaster risk management—the Climate Change Act of 2009, the Philippine
Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010, and the Act Establishing the People’s Survival Fund.

The Climate Change Act of 2009 (RA 9729) was signed into law on Oct. 23, 2009. On my second term as a legislator, I actively defended this
historic and visionary legislation that now provides a template for other countries.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act (RA 10121), which I co-authored, is also considered a model legislation by the UN
Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) and other countries.

The third pillar, the People’s Survival Fund, provides funds to local communities to finance long-term action streams to address climate change.

One does not always find the opportunity to lead the process of legislating what I would call a 360-degree policy framework to address today’s
greatest challenge—climate change. I would consider this as one of my most fulfilling contributions toward making our country more resilient
to climate and disaster impacts. I am grateful for the international community’s positive reception to these measures, which are viewed as a
“gold standard” for climate action policies.

As a legislator, I have had my share of painful realizations in the lawmaking arena—legislative proposals are only as good as what the current
situation demands, normally driven by tragic events, disasters, or even death. This should not be the case.
As a neophyte senator, I had sponsored the Ecological Solid Waste Management (ESWM) Act or RA 9003, motivated by my knowledge as a
journalist of the inhumane conditions and the safety concerns of the people who lived in these dump sites.

The measure was signed into law, but not until the death of more than 200 people who were buried under a wall of garbage at the Payatas
dump site. The frustrations do not end there.

Fifteen years after the enactment of the ESWM Law, it pains me to know that we have yet to achieve 100 percent compliance by local
government units. I take consolation in the fact, however, that many communities have already embraced the law. The Office of the
Ombudsman has also begun to investigate close to 600 local government executives for violations of RA 9003. Lawmaking is one part of the
solution. Implementing the law, as well as building accountabilities, is another.

The Anti-Domestic Violence Against Women and Their Children Act (RA 9262), the Anti-Child Labor Law (RA 9231), the Anti-Trafficking in
Persons Act (RA 9208) and its amended version (RA 10364), the Clean Air Act (RA 8749), Clean Water Act (RA 9275), and Environmental
Awareness and Education Act (RA 9512) are among those that I have strongly advocated for. I take pride in how these measures have protected
the marginalized and vulnerable and promoted a more sustainable future.

The amended Magna Carta for Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) Law, which I co-authored, has had deep impacts—920,000 jobs
generated; 76,000 MSMEs expanded operations; and 180,000 MSMEs assisted in 2011 to 2012 alone. Work does not end here as I am
proposing a new measure that will promote innovation and knowledge economy that will enable our MSMEs to contribute to global value
chains.

In the area of health, the Newborn Screening Act (RA 9288), which I authored, saves 10,000 children from disability every year.

Shepherding the concurrence process covering the ratification of the highest number of international treaties in a single session of the 15th
Congress, as chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, was also very gratifying. Sixteen international treaties—from the ILO Convention
Concerning Decent Work for Domestic Workers, the Maritime Labor Convention on the Seafarers’ Bill of Rights, The Rome Statute of the
International Criminal Court, just to name a few—now form part of the country’s policies. As a responsible member of the international
community, we are bound by minimum standards and legal frameworks by which to address specific shared issues.

One hundred years after the Senate was established, its halls continue to echo the differences in opinions, heated debates, and spirited
discourse—all exemplifying a healthy democracy and reflecting the thoughts, aspirations, and indomitable will of the Filipino people.

From 1916 to 2016 and beyond, the Senate will continue to serve our countrymen even after a thousand laws have been enacted. The Senate’s
mandate will not cease as governance evolves through laws that are the living documents reflecting the constantly changing social,
political, and economic landscape in the local, national, and global levels.

A working democracy requires a working Senate. On reaching its milestone as a 100-year-old institution, the Philippine Senate will need to
make laws that go beyond the concerns of the here and now.

A 100-year-old Senate, honed by its deep experience, will also need to foresee and anticipate the needs and challenges of the next 100 years.

Sen. Loren Legarda is a three-term senator. She is the only female senator to top the Senate elections twice and serve as Senate Majority
Leader. She currently chairs the Senate Committees on Climate Change and Finance. Senator Legarda is UNISDR’s Global Champion for
Resilience.

Read more at http://www.mb.com.ph/the-challenges-of-the-next-100-years/#brDWxQ606eMWzSB2.99

Gadgets of the future

Electronics in the human body will record holiday and other experiences - bungee-jumping for example - and replay them into your nervous
system, or someone else's. They will be able to feel the same sensations you did on holiday. This would surpass showing holiday snaps to
friends and family. Games headsets are already recording some simple thought processes.

Pearson also referred to "active skin". Tattoos would be applied to the skin to provide interactive, touch-sensitive video displays. One drawback:
hackers may try to access your nervous system, though this threat will not deter all.

Pearson referred to the "digital mirror" in which you see yourself as you want to, not as you are. And you could use "active makeup" to change
your look during the day.

Smart bacteria - the biggest IT security threat to mankind?


Pearson said that smart bacteria could be the biggest security threat known to mankind by 2025. They may land on keyboards and work out
passwords. "Even before [your password] signals reach the PC and get decoded by the software, they [smart bacteria] are already taking money
out of your bank account." He told anyone in the audience who is working in IT security and is less than say 40-years-old: "change your career".
He referred to bacteria linked via infrared that form sophisticated self-organising circuits.

Robots will replace IT workers - the human-machine convergence

Pearson referred to an optical brain in a conscious computer - a billion times more powerful than the brain with emotions and senses. The
conscious computer could be fully sentient - benign or malicious. He showed on a slide the stages of man from homo erectus and homo
sapiens to what he called homo machinus and bacteria sapiens within 150 years.

By 2018 there may be a "robot as smart as you are". Robots may have a higher IQ than humans - and take over many intellectual and IT jobs
today. "Today many people work as smart machines. Machines will become much smarter." Research is being funded into making computers
thousands and even a million times smarter than humans, he said.

Why humans will still be needed - the female-dominated economy

"But humans will add value because of the need for compassion. A robot will never be able to sit beside a patient, give them a cuddle and
make them feel better. A robot can clear up a bedpan and give an injection, prescribe drugs. Compassion needs humans. A PC will be able to do
what a human does today in an intellectual capacity. But a human will add value because of emotion and compassion." He said that workplaces
will be designed for meeting people.

Pearson spoke of the male-dominated economy coming to an end. "Everything I do I could do with a piece of software if I spent enough time
writing it. What my wife does, dealing with other people, I cannot do that at all. So she will have a job in 2020 whereas my job will be
automated. We are heading very rapidly towards a female-dominated economy. "

Globalization in reverse

Globalization is increasing. But it will soon start reversing. "You cannot shake hands with someone or give them a cuddle across a network."
Globalization, he said, will start to reverse thanks to the refocus on the care economy over a 100 year period.

Oil at 30 dollars a barrel by 2030

Pearson made a case for the world's energy coming from the Sahara and other deserts within 22 years, and oil at less than 30 dollars a barrel.

He said that solar power from the Sahara, even at 12% efficiency, could replace carbon-based fuels such as oil, petrol and diesel. "The Sahara
alone could supply 40 times more energy than we need for the whole planet." One barrel of oil is the equivalent in energy of a solar panel,
which measures one square metre, working in the Sahara working for six months.

He spoke of solar farms in the Sahara, and "super-cables" to transmit the energy. "By 2030 you cannot sell a barrel of oil for more than 30
dollars. At some point the maximum obtainable price will fall below extraction cost and the rest will be left in the ground."

Obsolescence is great for IT and the environment

Pearson said that the faster that technology becomes obsolete the faster miniaturisation will happen, which will reduce the drain on the
world's resources. Eventually "we get a total sustainable future where everyone has all the IT they can dream of and almost no environmental
impact".

He added, "The faster the obsolescence the faster we get there. If anyone tells you obsolescence is a bad idea, ignore them or argue with them
but do not believe them. Do not ever limit your obsolescence cycle. That will slow down progress and increase environmental impact. As an
example miniaturisation will 'bring everyday IT down to lapel-pin size'."

Agility is more important than being best-in-class


Business will change faster. "You should not focus on being best-in-class. You need agility. Optimisation is only a good strategy in a stable
environment."

Security - too much will kill your company

"You cannot have a watertight security policy - you have to give enough freedom to employees to do their jobs. In an extreme, your security
department can kill your company better than any hacker."

He said that boards of directors should beware of setting extreme goals for their heads of IT security. "How can you have sensible security while
making sure your employees can do their jobs well? Most blue chips do not do that very well at all. They stop their employees from doing their
job."

He warned that employees will bypass the corporate systems and do their jobs on home PCs, where there will not be any security at all, and
then they will have their ideas stolen. "Or they [employees] will be so inefficient you will not have a company."

Tax rates will soar - sending graduates overseas

Pearson said there is nowhere near enough money in the government's pension funds to cope with a population that is living much longer. Tax
rates for young people will go through the roof but only in developed countries, he said. "In the developing countries tax rates will be very low."

He said that graduates will object to paying up to 60% of their salary in tax and will emigrate to Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, India or China which
he said would be viable economies but would have "very low tax rates by comparison". He added, "We will obviously see a brain drain. We
cannot expect our children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren to support us when they do not have to."

Power in future will be web-based - as will the threats

"Future power will be web-based. Like-minded people will find each other easily on the web and may organise campaigns and denial of service
attacks to force people to listen."

Global pressure groups will apply pressure instantaneously, using the economic and IT muscle of billions of people.

Five-year plans are a waste of time

"You have to think about the future. The pace of change is so fast that you cannot plan five years ahead with any degree of accuracy. New
technologies and regulations are on the scene so quickly now that whatever strategy you have will be OK for the first two to three years and
then is obsolete. So for years four and five, if you have any serious plans, investment plans - for example - they will be a millstone around your
neck. Do not have a five-year plan. It is a waste of time. Have a two-to-three-year plan. You need to be adaptable - that will keep you alive."

Manufacturers will not keep pace with advances

"Twenty years from now the rate of technological development will be faster than the ability of factories to manufacture."

Who is Ian Pearson?

He told delegates on the Aurora, "I study the future but I do not try to predict it with 100% accuracy. I am not like Mystic Meg. I am an engineer.
I keep abreast with what is happening in engineering. I know what Sony or Nokia or BT will be bringing out in two to three years time.

"I look at the engineering basis for what is happening and extrapolate from that, and try to figure out what gadgets you will have in your
pockets, briefcases and desktop in 10-15 years. And how you will use technology to knock socks off the competition.

"Once you figure out how people will use technologies in their businesses and everyday lives, you get a pretty good view of what the future
holds. Studying technology you can get 85% accuracy over 10 years. I hope that sounds impressive. As a reality check, 85% accuracy means that
15% of the following presentation is complete and utter crap."

Pearson is a graduate in applied maths and theoretical physics who worked for Shorts Missile Systems. From 1991 to 2007 he was BT's
futurologist, mapping developments in IT and considering the technological and social implications. Now he does the same things as an
independent. He is a fellow of the BCS.