Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 28

5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

(http://2point2capital.com/index.php)

The Curious Case Of Manpasand Beverages

Building strong consumer brands is hard. Building them at scale is even harder. Especially in
the food and beverages market, building a new brand can be exceptionally di cult. A new
player must garner market share from incumbents that have (1) a high brand loyalty amongst
consumers, (2) a large distribution footprint built over decades, and (3) bene ts of scale due to
a portfolio of brands (distribution, advertising, overheads etc.). This explains the resilience of
brands like Maggi and Coca Cola which survived the lead and pesticide controversy
respectively. Over the last 10 years, the number of new brands built in the food and beverages
segment are quite low.

There have been a few exceptions though. For instance, Paper Boat by Hector Beverages has
been quite successful. However, Paper Boat’s success was driven by its creation of an entirely
new product category of ethnic drinks. Paper Boat did not directly compete with any existing
player. It has built a loyal customer base by targeting a latent consumer need which was not
served by incumbent players. However, Paper Boat is still a niche product and generated less
than 100 crs in revenue in FY16. Other success stories (like that of DS Group’s Pulse candy)
have primarily been in segments with higher market share churn.  

However, there is one company which is truly an exception – Manpasand Beverages


(“Manpasand”). Manpasand is a Baroda based company which sells fruit drinks/juices under
the Mango Sip and Fruits Up brands. In a short period, the company has seen rapid growth in
revenues and pro ts. In FY16, Manpasand generated 557 crs in revenues and 51 crs in pro ts.
This growth was achieved despite erce competition from incumbent players like Coca Cola
(Maaza), Pepsi (Slice/Tropicana), Parle Agro (Frooti) and Dabur (Real).

Manpasand Financial Summary

in Crs FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 CAGR

Revenue      
85.7 239.8 294.3 359.8 556.7 60%
      

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 1/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

PAT                
6.1 22.4 20.5 30.0 50.6 70%
          

Manpasand’s growth has attracted a lot of interest from both private equity and public market
investors. Over 2011-2015, the company raised 116 cr from private equity investors. In July
2015, it went public with a 400 cr IPO. Manpasand’s stock has delivered a 90%+ return over its
IPO price. Manpasand seems to have done the impossible by building a large and highly valued
beverage brand despite competing head-on with entrenched foreign and Indian players.

But, there’s a catch.

It’s not clear how the company generates its 550 crs in revenues (650 crs if you consider the
trailing 12 months’ performance). There are several other red ags as well. Read on.    

1. The curious case of Manpasand’s (surprisingly) high market share

The packaged fruit juice market in India is estimated to be in the range of 9,000 to 12,000 crs in
value terms (including retailer and distributor margins). Mango juice is the largest category
accounting for ~85% of fruit juice sales. Maaza, Slice and Frooti dominate the fruit juice market
with over 60% market share in volume terms.

Fruit Juice Volume Market Share

Brand Company 2015 Market Share %

Maaza Coca Cola 28.8%

Slice Pepsi Co 19.4%

Frooti Parle Agro 15.5%

Real Dabur India 8.8%

Tropicana Pepsi Co 5.8%

Others – 21.7%

Total 100.0%

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 2/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

Source: Manpasand QIP Document, Euromonitor

In FY16, Parle Agro (Frooti owner) and Manpasand generated 1270 crs and 550 crs in revenues
respectively from fruit juice. Considering Manpasand’s higher trade margins (35% vs Parle
Agro’s 25%), it was already 50% the size of Parle Agro in FY16 (in volume terms). It also has a
negligible presence in South India which accounts for ~25% of the fruit juice market. So
essentially, in North, West and East India, Manpasand was 60%+ of Frooti’s scale in volumes.

This is a phenomenal achievement considering Parle Agro’s Frooti is a 30-year old brand with a
large advertising budget and extensive distribution reach.  On the other hand, Manpasand
spends precious little in terms of advertising and has a limited retail reach. How then did this
company achieve such a large scale in such a short time? Manpasand claims that it focuses on
rural and semi-urban markets which are underserved by larger players. This is clearly an
exaggerated claim. The likes of Coca Cola, Pepsi and Parle Agro have a retail presence in every
nook and corner of the country (either directly or through the wholesale channel). Manpasand
does not have any advantage that allows it to better serve semi-urban or rural markets
compared to a Parle Agro.

To check Manpasand’s claims on its distribution strengths, we did a telephonic survey of 100+
retailers across states like Gujarat, Punjab, UP, Uttarakhand and Bihar. These states are
considered Manpasand’s core markets as the company has plants in Baroda, Varanasi and
Dehradun and has a higher distributor density in these states (as per its IPO documents).

The survey results show that Manpasand has negligible retail penetration in even its core
markets. Less than 10% of the retailers carried Manpasand’s products while the number was
~50% for Frooti (NOTE: Most retailers stock multiple fruit juice brands. The survey was
conducted before the demonetization event). It can be reasonably concluded that Manpasand’s
retail presence would be even weaker in its non-core markets (like North East, MP and Orissa).
How has Manpasand reported more than 50% of Parle Agro’s volumes despite a signi cantly
lower retail presence in even its core markets?

The company claims to generate a part of its sales from the Indian Railways/IRCTC vendors.
Could this explain Manpasand’s large scale? Seems unlikely. All large players have similar tie-
ups with IRCTC. As of 30th Sept 2016, Fruits Up (accounts for ~20% of Manpasand’s revenues)
had not yet been approved by IRCTC. Additionally, Mango Sip is only classi ed as a “Category A”
supplier by IRCTC while Maaza, Slice and Frooti are all classi ed as “Category A Special”
suppliers. This means that Manpasand is not allowed to sell its products on premium trains
while competition can. Clearly, Manpasand’s competitors are better placed in selling on the
Indian Railways.

Manpasand’s claims of market growth rates also seem to widely di er from those of
competition.

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 3/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

All the above data points are inconsistent with Manpasand’s reported numbers. Where does
the company sell its products that leads to such a high market share? Why is its retail
penetration so weak in even its core markets? How has the company achieved this scale
without any signi cant advertising spend? Why are category growth estimates of Manpasand
and Parle Agro so widely di erent?   

2. The curious case of Fruits Up’s market leadership

In July 2014, Manpasand launched its non-Mango products under the Fruits Up and
Manpasand ORS brand. Fruits Up comprises (1) fruit-based carbonated drinks (think Appy Fizz,
not Mirinda) in grape, orange and lemon avors (2) fruit drinks with higher fruit content in
apple, litchi, guava, orange and mango avors. Fruits Up and Manpasand ORS together
generated over 115 crs in revenues in FY16 (i.e. in less than 2 years of launch). In Q2 FY17
alone, Fruits Up is reported to have generated revenues of over 40 crs.

While Mango Sip’s success has been remarkable, that of Fruits Up is stunning as it comes in a
niche product category of fruit-based carbonated drinks. Parle Agro’s Appy Fizz (launched in
2005) was largely responsible for creating this category and is considered the clear market
leader. However, if Fruits Up’s numbers are to be believed it is already larger than Appy Fizz.
This has been again done without any advertising support while Appy Fizz has run national TV
ad campaigns featuring Priyanka Chopra. As per a sell-side analyst report, Fruits Up was
present only in Gujarat and Maharashtra till mid-2015. This raises an important question – How
did Fruits Up become larger than Appy Fizz without investing in advertising and with a much
smaller geographical footprint? That too within 2 years of launch.    

 3. The curious case of Hansraj Agro Fresh

Manpasand’s IPO documents had an interesting disclosure which was missed by the analyst
community.

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 4/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

SEBI requires companies to disclose if they or their family members have any interests in
competing businesses. This ensures that investors are aware of any con ict of interest of the
Promoters/Managers of a company. Companies with Promoters having competing interests is
considered negative from a governance standpoint.

Mr. Satyendra Singh (MD’s brother) and Ms. Renu Singh (MD’s wife’s sister) are the Directors of
Hansraj Agro Fresh (started in 2014) which manufactures the same products as Manpasand.

This information should have been disclosed in the IPO o er documents. This information was
not disclosed in even the recent QIP documents. Promoters choosing to not disclose the
existence of a competing business run by immediate family members is a serious red ag. A
LinkedIn search shows that ex-employees of Manpasand now work for Hansraj Agro Fresh.  As
such, it is unlikely that the company was unaware of the existence of Hansraj Agro Fresh. The
company claims that “we have been unable to obtain any information pertaining to themselves
or any such entities”. Maybe, the company has not yet heard of Google or ROC search (see here
– https://goo.gl/dtVh40 (https://goo.gl/dtVh40))

4. The curious case of the 500-cr QIP

In September 2016, Manpasand raised 500 crs through a Quali ed Institutional Placement
(QIP). This was after it had just raised 400 crs through an IPO in July 2015. Companies rarely
need to raise additional capital so soon after an IPO. As per SEBI data, Manpasand had the
smallest time gap ever between its IPO and its QIP. There must have been good reasons why
the company needed to raise such a large amount of capital in such a short time after its IPO.
The “Use of Proceeds” outlined in the QIP document was as follows:

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 5/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

Well, that seems a bit vague. Basically, the company is saying they can do whatever they want.
Just give us the money. 

Such a large fundraise so soon after the IPO is odd for several reasons. The company used 100
crs of the 400 cr fundraise in the IPO for repaying its debt. This suggests that, till a few months
back, the company considered debt repayment a better use of proceeds than investing in
growth opportunities. As of 31st March 2016, the company still had over 90 crs in cash to
continue to invest in growth and expansion. In case that was not su cient, it could very well
have raised debt again. With this QIP, Manpasand has raised over 1000 crs in equity capital
over a 5-year period!!   

5. The curious case of Manpasand’s low employee compensation

Building a large business is rarely a one-man show. While the company can be led by a
visionary CEO, it still needs a strong management team to execute the CEO’s plans.
Compensation ends up playing the most important part in hiring and retaining a good senior
management team. This does not seem to apply to Manpasand which has abysmally low senior
management compensation.

Annual
Name Designation Age Tenure Compensation
(in lakhs)1

Paresh Thakker Chief Financial O cer 40 Inception 6.5

Bhavesh Jingar2 CS & Compliance O cer 30 2014 4.2

Chief Controller of
Vijay Panchal 43 Inception 9.8
Operations

Shaunak
Finance Manager 47 Inception 7.0
Bhavsar

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 6/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

Chintan Chokshi Regional Sales Manager 28 Inception 4.6

Praharsh General Administrator/PR


34 2013 5.1
Vaccharajani O cer

Girishkumar Credit Monitoring/Collection


32 Inception 3.3
Pandya Manager

Surender
Logistics Manager 54 Inception 3.6
Sharma

Dipan Thakkar Product Manager (Fruits Up) 33 2014 3.5

Sardul Pandit Plant Head 28 2015 –

Median 4.6

1For FY15  2Annualized gure

In FY15, Manpasand’s median senior management compensation was 4.6 lakhs!! Such low
compensation for senior management of a company of this scale is completely unheard of. At
these compensation levels, how could Manpasand retain these executives who have led a 6x
growth in revenues over the last 4 years? Given their performance, wouldn’t competitors look
to hire them for even 4-5 times their current compensation? We are unable to comprehend
why that hasn’t happened yet.

At rst glance, Manpasand appears to be an exceptional business operating in an attractive


industry. However, a deeper review raises several concerns as discussed above.

Finding good investment ideas in the small and midcap space in India is hard work, especially
given the history of poor corporate governance standards. Using screeners on the reported
nancial statements to nd high growth businesses with high ROEs may seem to be the easiest
way to nd good ideas. However, investors would be better o spending their time
understanding the source of high growth. Blindly relying on the company’s reported nancials
and/or management commentary can be injurious to portfolio returns.

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 7/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

Disclaimer/Disclosure: This post is not a recommendation to buy or sell Manpasand stock.


Please do not base your investment decisions on this post. We do not have any position on
Manpasand stock.

If you like this post, share it with your friends/followers on:

5
(/#facebook) (/#linkedin) (/#twitter) (/#email)

Posted by Amit Mantri (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/aauthor/amit/) / DECEMBER 6, 2016 /


51 Comments

Posted in

Uncategorized (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/acategory/uncategorized/)

51 Comments

Dhaval
DECEMBER 6, 2016 at 2:47 pm

Hi good update and analysis. Just one small input : Mango Sip is available
on Shatabdi train. ( Since you mentioned it’s not availabile on premium
trains). With everything else i completely agree with you.

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=185#respond)

Amit Mantri
DECEMBER 6, 2016 at 3:08 pm

Thanks Dhaval. As per IRCTC, Mango Sip is only for non-premium trains.
Please refer to this doc – http://www.irctc.com/displayServlet?
displayActionFlag=all_pdf&get_ le_name=DETAILS_OF_SHORT_LISTED_SU

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 8/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

(http://www.irctc.com/displayServlet?
displayActionFlag=all_pdf&get_ le_name=DETAILS_OF_SHORT_LISTED_SU

Maybe there is some arrangement that still allows them to sell on


Shatabdi.

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=186#respond)

Ravi Mundada
DECEMBER 6, 2016 at 3:27 pm

Manpasand Beverages had too discontinued businesses with his old


channel partners all over India (80%), because they(company) know that
they (channel partners) will not support in wrong decisions.

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=187#respond)

Kimi
DECEMBER 7, 2016 at 12:48 am

Awesome analysis Amit.

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=188#respond)

Sudhakar
DECEMBER 7, 2016 at 3:39 am

Awesome analysis

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=189#respond)

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 9/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

Rahul Kumar
DECEMBER 7, 2016 at 3:43 am

Excellent piece. This should be taken up for investigation by SEBI and if any
of this is found to be true with respect to adequate disclosures, the
investment bankers need to be questioned. Also time and again its been
observed that basing investment recommendation on reported nancials
and management commentary is very common in India, surprisingly even
for smaller companies with several potential red ags. Ostensibly, sell side
analysts these days form a favorable bias after a stock has doubled and
then rarely make that bold move to question or raise ags in the company
strategy or corporate governance issues.

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=190#respond)

Bhaskar
DECEMBER 7, 2016 at 4:56 am

Awesome analysis. I did see “Fruits Up” in my local heritage shop in


Bangalore during summer but obviously it was not selling well and they
had BOGO deal going on but did not see any sales. I think you can get
more South India speci c data from Heritage, More, BigBazar, Spencer.

Anybody investing in new small/mid-cap companies showing phenomenon


growth when industry is not showing such growth rates without on the
ground scuttlebutt is setting up for failure. Stock is down 10% as of
07/12/2016 10:30 am

Its also become a common practice to prop up the stock price before QIP ..
Why cannot regulator investigate such frequent violations is beyond me.

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=191#respond)

Jayashree
DECEMBER 7, 2016 at 5:47 am

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 10/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

Excellent. I had shares and I sold it o based on this. I had bought into the
hype created by the Co earlier. They seem to be managing the prices also
rather well.
Lost a bit of money. But am OK as I nd the evidence as laid out here quite
disturbing. Rather be out of such stocks.

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=192#respond)

Mrunal Savla
DECEMBER 7, 2016 at 6:07 am

Sir, can you please give your insights regarding :


Whether the company is paying taxes (direct as well as indirect). I assume
deloitte (their auditors) would have checked and done cross referencing
their VAT returns (C forms etc)

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=193#respond)

Daljit Singh Kochhar (Http://Www.Ktadvisory.Com)


DECEMBER 7, 2016 at 7:00 am

Did you take any management or auditor input regarding revenue


recognition? Do their input costs check out?

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=194#respond)

Pranav
DECEMBER 7, 2016 at 7:47 am

Superb Analysis. I am glad I came across this masterpiece analysis. Was


planning to buy manpasand on dips. Will stay away.

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 11/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=195#respond)

Karan Samal
DECEMBER 7, 2016 at 8:47 am

I was once very interested in buying this particular business, however, the
same queries arose in my analysis. The Brands owned by this company
doesn’t have a decent presence at retail stores and still the company is
growing at an extra ordinary rate. The valuations are too high.

Anyways, can you do a similar analysis on Mirza International? Its brand


Red Tape is a premium brand however, why they do not advertise?

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=196#respond)

Parth Talsania
DECEMBER 7, 2016 at 8:59 am

Excellent Work. Truly Appreciating .

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=197#respond)

Dhruva Pandey
DECEMBER 7, 2016 at 9:53 am

Superb analysis, Very educational too.


Gr8 work keep doing …

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=198#respond)

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 12/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

RT
DECEMBER 7, 2016 at 12:39 pm

A cursory glance of FY16 annual report re ects the following:


Tax paid is very low (~Rs 6 crs on PBT of Rs 56 crs…though there is a MAT
credit..still).
The key is to understand the Capex & CWIP….seems there is a mickey in it.
Also in bank FDs, there is ~ 56 crs which is kept as margin money…when
there is no debt and no ref to LCs, cant understand why FDs are given as
margin money except for Rs 1.3 crs of EPCG liability (incidentally, in CF
statement the ref to margin money is 56 crs whereas in BS schedules on
cash equivalents the number is 32 crs…may be a typo)

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=199#respond)

Deval Khandelwal
DECEMBER 7, 2016 at 1:01 pm

Hats o man. That was one of the best detailed analysis I have ever read
put in such a simple way

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=200#respond)

Umesh Sethi
DECEMBER 7, 2016 at 5:06 pm

Superb analysis
Keep up the good work
Proud of you both

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=201#respond)

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 13/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

Sivakumar M
DECEMBER 7, 2016 at 7:25 pm

Excellent, typical example of one should not only be considering balance


sheet, but should look into various aspects.

Just wondering what could be taken as a base for analyzing the companies
if companies start manipulating data!

Good share…

Regards,
Siva

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=203#respond)

Dipesh Padole
DECEMBER 8, 2016 at 5:34 am

Nice view on the market. But Manpasand has good market in the Tier-II
cities and growth of the Company can not be challenged based on just
other peers. The Company has proved track record with NIL leverages and
it is worth investing in the stock.

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=204#respond)

Kamal Garg
DECEMBER 8, 2016 at 6:12 am

Very nice and probing analysis.


Lots of unanswered questions.
Have been told that large Indian broking houses and analysts based
companies have either strongly recommended and/or invested in
Manpasand either through IPO/QIP ( and one such name is Motilal Oswal
Financial Services – which is a marquee name in Indian nancial services

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 14/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

space). Don’t understand why such large institutional investors/analysts


cannot take due diligence more seriously and go deep into any investment
recommendation case. I agree that excise and VAT paid has to be veri ed
by Deloitte. Why can’t they issue a statement to this e ect to allay the fears
of some irregularity. Is one more Satyam being created and is in o ng.
Why we keep on having such cases in India. Are the regulators and other
authorities like SEBI sleeping. And even after these kind of disturbing news
coming to the fore, why prices are still OK (fallen from a peak of 770 to 600
as of now during the last 3 months).
Further when can we expect such kind of x-ray or rather forensic analysis
of some other companies also.

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=205#respond)

Sachin
DECEMBER 8, 2016 at 1:24 pm

Awesome analysis

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=206#respond)

Sachin
DECEMBER 8, 2016 at 1:25 pm

Awesome analysis

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=207#respond)

Susmit
DECEMBER 9, 2016 at 8:58 am

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 15/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

Before we get into the awesome analysis, I wonder why Savi Jain changed
his experience at ICICI Pru Life from Investments to Acturial/Investments. Is
there a curious case here?

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=208#respond)

Savi Jain
DECEMBER 9, 2016 at 1:56 pm

Dear Susmit

Thanks for keeping such a keen eye on our website changes (one of
which you have highlighted). We regularly update our website as you
would have noticed.

While at ICICI Pru Life, I was responsible for the Risk Management of the
Investment portfolio at ICICI Prudential Life, as part of the Actuarial
team. We made this website change to clarify this and to also make it
consistent with the Audited Disclosure Document, dated 30th
September 2016, on the “Invest with us” page, where it is already
mentioned that I worked with the Actuarial Department.

For your reference, while I was at ICICI Prudential Life, I worked in


Abhishek Saraf’s team (Currently at Prudential UK). While I was there, I
made several presentations to the then CIO (Chief Investment O cer) –
Puneet Nanda (Now Executive Director) as part of my role. Essentially, a
major part of my role involved running a risk analysis of the Investment
Portfolio at ICICI Prudential Life on changes in various risk parameters
like Interest Rate, Equity, Credit Rating etc. Sorry, no curious case here

BTW, are you the same Susmit Patodia, who is a Director at Motilal
Oswal Securities? We would love to catch up to discuss some factual
errors in Motilal Oswal’s rebuttal.

Regards,

Savi

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 16/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=210#respond)

Ashu Kumar
DECEMBER 11, 2016 at 8:16 pm

Hi Savi,

For the sake of the larger audience, can you please point out what
factual errors have you noticed in Motilal Oswal’s rebuttal? I have
read Motilal Oswal’s rebuttal and did not notice any data/factual
errors.

Discl:- I am invested in Manpasand Beverages so my views could be


biased.

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=219#respond)

Niks
DECEMBER 9, 2016 at 10:17 am

Excellent analysis. Keep up the good work. I wonder how a big fund
invested in this co. without such due diligence.
I was planning to buy this stock but was dissuaded by the high P/E ratio.
Saved by Graham philosophy!

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=209#respond)

Read, Learn, Improve – 10-Dec-16 | Random Thoughts Of Analyst


(Https://Sagetheanalyst.Wordpress.Com/2016/12/10/Read-Learn-
Improve-10-Dec-16%E2%80%8b/)
DECEMBER 10, 2016 at 4:27 am

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 17/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

[…] Since vast readers of this blog are in some way related to investment fraternity you
ought to read this insightful analysis on Manpasand Beverage Ltd that raised Rs400cr
through IPO in Jun’15 and another 500cr through QIP in Sep-16 – The Curious Case Of
Manpasand Beverages – Link here […]

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-
manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=212#respond)

Rishabh Adukia
DECEMBER 10, 2016 at 8:11 am

Good analysis , keep up the good work.


looking forward to more such insights from you guys, positive ones too.

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=213#respond)

Rahul Jain
DECEMBER 10, 2016 at 5:14 pm

I have been an investor in Manpasand and hence my views could be


biased.

Firstly, you completely ignore the size of opportunity.

India’s beverage consumption ranks amongst the lowest in the world and
in comparison to China, beverage consumption is at what it was in 1994
and even for Coca Cola’s sales in was at 12 units vs 92 units (global
average) now if you account for the climatic variation, global warming,
rising per capita etc. India has miles to go.

Now sitting in your air conditioned o ce, you cannot fathom the
desperation to consume uid when you travel in summers heat when
temperatures touch 45-48 degrees. I’ve rsthand witnessed the
compulsion and by the way did see Mango Sip on my road trip on a State
bus from Sikar to Jaipur in Rajasthan.

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 18/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

Now based on 100 calls to retailers you question how can report so much
topline! I would call yours as a curious case of oppy research!
Manpansand sells through more than 2lac outlets and btw its a heavily
seasonal product. And are you questioning the auditors or excise
department or what? Be speci c and say that the auditor is a fraud and le
a police complaint! Why are you beating around the bush?

Now tell me why would Manpasand care what Parle reports?


Also, please realise this a asset heavy business, you need to buy land, set
up plant and machinery etc., you need hard cash. Its rst IPO was to repay
debt and set up the Ambala plant. The Ambala plant has just started
operations and has’nt even completed a quarter of sales and you are
jumping to conclusions!

Now, it raised another Rs500cr through qip. So that money would take 12-
18 to be deployed. What are you upset about? That they were able to
convince long term investors such as Fidelity, SBI etc to raise equity to
expand their brand and reach deeper corners of India? Looks like you are
more upset about the taste or that you missed investing in the IPO!

Why do you think markets are so e cient that they lap up every salaried
person who is available at a less than percieved salaries. So according to
you people are like tradable commodities ready to swapped at the next
available buyer!

Do me a favour get out in the market, take the train or a bus for a change
and visit tier 2 towns in the summer season, it will open your eyes!

Finally, I would end with a quote from Warren Bu et-

“Successful Investing takes time, discipline and patience. No matter how


great the talent or e ort, some things just take time: You can’t produce a
baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant”

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=215#respond)

Sreekanth
MAY 26, 2017 at 2:38 pm

Good luck.
https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 19/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=474#respond)

Pankaj Kumar
DECEMBER 11, 2016 at 8:11 am

It seems Manpasand rewards it’s employees with ESOPs on a regular basis.


For a growing company, employees are more interested in ESOPs and
ready to work for lower salary than market median. Infosys attracted very
talented employees with ESOPs o er in 90s. This may be the reason for
lower salary for the senior management.

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=217#respond)

Apurva Shah
DECEMBER 12, 2016 at 5:53 am

Hi, Amit
Good detailed work,
Can you elaborate on following parameters, as you did a very detailed
study of the company and industry?
1) If we go by salary of top employees, how can one justify 16 crs of salary
for FY16?
2) Have you more digged into capex done in last two years, and how much
capacity will be added?
3) When you say asset heavy business, have you studied companies in
similar space? Many FMCG companies have adopted asset light model due
to exclusive outsourcing tie ups, is it possible in this segment?
4) Have you questioned management about quality of sales / pat growth,
primafacie looking at balance sheet, other parameters are not so
questionable. Which segment (Retail / institution has more contributed to
60% CAGR growth in last 4-5 years)

Disclosure: I have not invested in the company, these thoughts are just
outcome of your detailed study and other readers input.
Regards,

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 20/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=220#respond)

Kushank Poddar
DECEMBER 12, 2016 at 2:22 pm

This was very insightful. Fingers crossed to see how the endgame pans out.

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=221#respond)

Aditya
DECEMBER 13, 2016 at 4:09 pm

Nice analysis

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=223#respond)

Rahul Agarwal
DECEMBER 14, 2016 at 7:36 am

http://manpasand.co.in/about-us/ (http://manpasand.co.in/about-us/)

this link shows the pdf of their registration with irctc and approval before
Sep 2016.

Good work but looks lot of your facts are incorrect…

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=225#respond)

Arun Roy
DECEMBER 14, 2016 at 9:49 am
https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 21/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

if we read your kitex article it shows that you were doubting their cash. But
now if you look at last qtr nos they have paid o they debt by 80-85cr. You
should issue a clari cation immediately….you cant create panic by just
writing whatever you feel like…I am dead sure similar will happen in
manpasand…

Disclosure- I don’t own any stock in manpasand and I don’t agree with you
analysis of small sample set

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=226#respond)

Priyank Dhabuwala
JANUARY 6, 2017 at 3:59 pm

Amit – Any idea why the vigilance o cer, Vijay Panchal has 80,000 stock
options while the CFO and the CS/CCO have only 2,000 and 1,000 stock
options respectively?

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=250#respond)

Rahul Jain
JANUARY 9, 2017 at 11:59 am

Another classical error in your judgement as Munger points out “One way
to mislead yourself, for instance, is to make decisions based on a small
sample size and extrapolate the results to a larger population. Another way
we fool ourselves is to remain committed to something we’ve said in the
past. We might rely on an authority gure or default to what everyone else
is doing.”

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=254#respond)

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 22/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

Manpasand Beverages: India’s Faith In Anything Aam! – The Astute


Investor (Http://Theastuteinvestor.In/Manpasand-Beverages-
Indias-Faith-In-Anything-Aam/)
JANUARY 12, 2017 at 7:52 am

[…] Experts have recently questioned the rags to riches growth story of Manpasand.
Several concerns have been raised about the revenue gures, market share,
distribution network, promoter’s […]

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-
manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=257#respond)

Omprakash Vaswani
MAY 23, 2017 at 5:49 pm

looks an excellently researched and insightful piece. The main approach


that of critical evaluation and analysis validating data presented by
company rather than taking that as a start and building the case is
something so important for investment analyst which is done wonderfully
here. A good and eye-opening read. Many thanks, Amit.

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=469#respond)

Abhinav
MAY 25, 2017 at 8:06 am

1. The stock is showing good momentum on the back of q-0-q growth and
they have been able to reduce the interest expenses over the past two
years.
2. It do not have any debt and capacity utilisation is at peak
3. It has good connect in the tier-II & III market and has good market share.

Auditors of the Company are reputed and some analyst has challenged the
same, I feel the stock is worth to invest and shall give good return.

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 23/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=471#respond)

Vanlal
MAY 27, 2017 at 4:12 am

You are.right I’m from silchar Assam and never once seen any of their
product

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=475#respond)

Abinav
JUNE 5, 2017 at 11:42 am

Assam or North East they may not have coverage but they are having
good market in the other part of the country.

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=483#respond)

Abhinav
JUNE 15, 2017 at 9:25 am

Updates on Manpasand Beverages:


> The Co has tied up with Baskin-Robins in March17 which has 550 outlets
in 120 cities and this is expected to improve the availability of their product
and can gain the market segment in beverage.
> Baskin-Robinks is good vintage (since 1993) and is one of the largest ice
cream retail chain in India.
> The Co has also made association with Parle Products Pvt Ltd(Parle-G) for
distribution of the mango sip manufactured by them.
> Parle-G has over 4.50 Mn outlets across India and shall help Manpasand
to reach the end consumer and both the Co’s shall be bene itted to cross-
promote their products.

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 24/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

In Q4FY17, the Co”s topline has grown by 16% y-o-y basis and pro t has
grown 22.66% y-0-y basis and the show has shown good momentum.

It seems that the stock is expected to give good return on the back of its
performance and other tie-up/association

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=487#respond)

Ashish Pandey
AUGUST 29, 2017 at 7:53 am

Fundoo analysis :).

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=527#respond)

Aditya Maheshwari
SEPTEMBER 13, 2017 at 7:05 am

Awesome

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=549#respond)

Sam
SEPTEMBER 27, 2017 at 4:24 pm

Hi, do you have an option to subscribe to your blog posts by email?

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=577#respond)

Gagan
https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 25/28
5/28/2018
g The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

NOVEMBER 15, 2017 at 4:11 pm

Awesome Amit!!

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=4618#respond)

Praveen
NOVEMBER 28, 2017 at 11:29 am

Very good article for a investor.

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=5291#respond)

D C Jain
JANUARY 9, 2018 at 11:22 am

Hello,

Please stay away from this company and its products. They have a very
unique “marketing scam” model to help boost their revenues particularly
from the southern states. They appoint temporary sales team every
quarter. The sales team scout for new stockists (mostly rst timers), get
them to invest anywhere from 5-25 lakhs. The company sends stock (never
equal to the invested amount, it keeps a part of the money never to be
returned). Once the stock is dispatched the sales team is replaced. The
stock would contain 80% half expired or nearing expiry stock and the
remaining 20% new stock.

The stockist being new to the business have no idea how to sell such huge
stock. Even if he manages to sell it to distributors, they come back to you
with complaints about “bad smell”, “solids sticking to bottle bottom”. The
company never responds to emails or phone calls. After trying for 3-4
months (by the time the stock expires) and the stockist gives up the ght.

Readers this is not a ctional account but real story of not just one but
many stockists in TN and AP. Please save your self.

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 26/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

Thanks
D C Jain

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=7287#respond)

Sarang
MAY 28, 2018 at 7:22 am

please analyze indiabulls ventures seems there is a plentiful insider trading


happened

Reply (https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-
curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/?replytocom=8455#respond)

Leave a Reply
Your email address will not be published. Required elds are marked *

Comment *

Name *

Email *

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 27/28
5/28/2018 The Curious Case of Manpasand Beverages

Website

I'm not a robot


reCAPTCHA
Privacy - Terms

POST COMMENT

 
 (https://twitter.com/2point2capital)

 (https://www.linkedin.com/company/2point2-capital?trk=biz-companies-
cym)

© 2018 , 2Point2 Capital Advisors LLP (https://2point2capital.com/blog/)

https://2point2capital.com/blog/index.php/a2016/12/06/the-curious-case-of-manpasand-beverages/ 28/28

Вам также может понравиться