Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
C A N A D A M O R T G A G E A N D H O U S I N G C O R P O R A T I O N
2
Housing Market Insight - Canada - Date Released - June 2018
3
Housing Market Insight - Canada - Date Released - June 2018
4
Housing Market Insight - Canada - Date Released - June 2018
Buying sooner than expected may is we don’t know if the purchase price in Montréal. Bidding wars tend to
reflect a lack of information about represents the value we would see report a higher median price too
the market, thereby pushing up the in a conventional transaction. In a of approximately 20% in Toronto
initial budget for fear of missing out bidding war, the price reflects an and 13% in Montréal11. For buyers of
in a market where prices rise. Buying auction with blind bids disrupting single-detached homes in Toronto
later than expected may reflect the conventional transactions where and Montréal, the premium paid is
inability to buy at the desired price, the seller receives an offer from 20% and 10% on the median price,
which would inevitably require one single buyer. respectively. The effect is opposite
buyers to revise their budget in in Vancouver, however. The median
an upward fashion. While the data Bidding wars are very common price of single-detached homes is
cannot support a strong conclusion in tight markets. The survey 15% lower for buyers who reported
on this question, homebuyers results show about 55% of buyers experiencing a bidding war. The
in Toronto and Vancouver who experienced a bidding war in Toronto bulk of bidding wars were reported
reported buying a home before and Vancouver. This is much larger in segments of the market where
they anticipated or after they compared to the 17% recorded prices were below the median
anticipated making a purchase
were more likely to exceed their
budget than homebuyers who did Table 5
not alter their timing9. The cost of bidding wars Mean Median Std. Deviation
Vancouver
Bidding wars and the impact Not first time homebuyers = 312 $933,470 $690,330 $23,683
on housing price First time homebuyers = 371 $793,197 $649,996 $19,966
Homebuyers measure the value Toronto
of a home through rule of thumb Not first time homebuyers = 219 $694,551 $577,394 $25,699
mechanisms. “It’s a hot market, First time homebuyers = 284 $816,194 $722,765 $16,617
I can’t miss out, it’s really tight
Montreal
right now – we will have to revise
our budget if we want to get in” Not first time homebuyers = 870 $354,292 $299,480 $4,086
all are phrases pushing homebuyers First time homebuyers = 182 $433,459 $344,817 $18,109
to overvalue an investment. For
Source: CMHC
behavioural economists Bondt and
Thaler, overreacting to data likens
to lacking self-control10. The CMHC Figure 1
survey looks into bidding wars as a
prime example of lacking self-control.
Kernel Density Plot of 12-month Expected
Admittedly, participating in a bidding
Price Growth by Survey Respondents
war entails risks: sale price typically Kernal Density
exceeds asking price, offers from 05
Others
Very Important & In Bidding War
competitive buyers are exclusively
privy to the sellers, and the window 04
to make a decision to present an offer
is condensed, sometimes a few hours
03
after the open house. The playing
field is uneven. Would-be buyers are
02
at a disadvantage, but nonetheless
they participate. When they do, there
01
are consequences for buyers and
sellers. Once the price is realized and
0
available for realtors and the general
-40 -20 0 20 40 60
public to see, it becomes an additional Expectations of price growth (%) in 12 Months
reference point for other buyers and
sellers. What is odd with bidding wars Source: CMHC
5
Housing Market Insight - Canada - Date Released - June 2018
purchase price, especially in the Who’s influencing In Toronto, the perceived influence
apartment condominiums. The survey your purchase? of investors is more in line with
results highlight the self-reinforcing supply constraints and demand
relationship between bidding CMHC’s survey results confirms side factors. In a separate survey,
wars and optimism. Homebuyers the strong perception foreign Statistics Canada reported the
who experienced a bidding war in and domestic investors driving up share of non-resident ownership
Montréal and Vancouver are more prices. Nearly 68% of respondents is 4.8% in Vancouver and 3.4% in
likely to report that future price in Vancouver believe foreign Toronto for all property types12 .
growth is very important. Having investors have a lot of influence in The results in the homebuyer
more optimistic short-term price driving up home prices while 48% motivation survey cannot be
expectations goes in hand with of respondents in Toronto believe compared directly with the results
valuing price growth. The graph foreign investors have a lot of in the survey on non-resident
shows those who experienced a influence driving up home prices. owners. But what is striking is the
bidding war and highly value future In Vancouver, the influence of significant gap between perceptions
growth have higher short-term investors is perceived to be of the public and available data,
price expectations than respondents stronger than supply constraints so much so that the perception of
who did not report participating in and demand side factors, both non-resident ownership takes
a bidding war. This would suggest quantified and estimated in the centre stage when discussing the
buyers rationalize their purchase EEHP as key variables explaining drivers of price growth13.
because of expected future growth. price growth.
In closing, the works of Robert
Shiller on narrative economics sound
Table 6 prescient to describe what could be
No Very little Some A lot of happening in the local imaginary of
Employment Growth
influence influence influence influence
homebuyers. The human brain has
Vancouver 8.10% 26.44% 48.43% 17.03% a natural draw toward stories
Toronto 6.33% 18.56% 48.86% 26.24% whether they are factual or not.
Montréal 4.14% 12.90% 47.92% 35.05% As he suggests, stories are powerful
instruments to share information
Population Growth
and reproduce narratives with
Vancouver 1.28% 6.49% 40.84% 51.39% economic impact. It is still a challenge
Toronto 2.44% 5.57% 37.43% 54.56% for economists to quantify and
Montréal 2.86% 8.70% 49.51% 38.94% measure the impacts of narratives
Land scarcity
on the housing market, but it is a
challenge we will seek to address14.
Vancouver 3.71% 10.57% 32.78% 52.94%
Toronto 7.81% 14.03% 33.94% 44.22%
Montréal 6.35% 13.01% 37.58% 43.06%
Foreign Investors
Vancouver 1.27% 6.36% 24.56% 67.80%
Toronto 3.81% 12.71% 35.60% 47.88%
Montréal 5.24% 13.44% 39.02% 42.31%
Domestic Investors
Vancouver 1.09% 8.53% 44.06% 46.33%
Toronto 2.98% 9.45% 39.46% 48.11%
Montréal 4.68% 18.49% 50.93% 25.90%
Source: CMHC
6
Housing Market Insight - Canada - Date Released - June 2018
ENDNOTES
1 Case, K., Shiller, R.J and A. Thompson (2012). “What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior In Hot and
Cold Markets,” NBER, Working Paper 18400.
2 This hypothesis stems from the results obtained by Case, K. Shiller, R.J and A. Thompson (2012) in “What Have
They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior In Hot and Cold Markets.”
3 It is assumed, however, characteristics of homebuyers are homogeneous across markets, thereby making finer grain
analysis also representative. For example, this means the behaviour of homebuyers reflect the population as a whole,
but we assume the behaviour of first-time homebuyers reflect the population as a whole too.
4 We conclude the report with a discussion contrasting the perception of foreign investors driving up home prices
versus objective data collected by CMHC and Statistics Canada on the share of non-permanent ownership.
5 Cash is meant to be understood as having access to payable or non-repayable loans from friends or families.
6 A counterpoint to this argument is that first-time homebuyers’ financial resources are often much more constrained
than repeat buyers who hold equity. As such, the relatively fixed budget of first-time homebuyers provides a clearer
picture of what they can afford.
7 We evaluate the “fear of missing out” by examining whether buyers bought sooner or later than planned.
8 We also provided the option to answer “I didn’t have a preferred time” and “I purchase when I felt it was the right time”.
9 It is worth noting this pattern is observable in Montréal only for those who purchased later than planned.
10 Bondt, W.F.M and R.Thaler (1985) “Does the stock market overreact,” Journal of Finance, 40, 3, 793-805.
11 We need to assume homes that went for bidding wars were initial priced at similar levels as other properties.
This assumption is reasonable, as most of the bidding wars are specific to dwelling types: single-detached
homes in Montréal and Toronto, and apartment condominiums in Vancouver.
12 As part of its Canadian Housing Statistics Program, Statistics Canada reported the share of non-resident ownership
of condos is closer to 7.9% in Vancouver.
13 The question regarding the influence of foreign and domestic investors could be interpreted as being broader
than sole ownership. Respondents could interpret the question as what is the influence of foreign capital in driving
up home prices. Much more work must be completed to gain a better understanding of the scale of foreign capital
in Canadian housing markets.
14 Shiller, R. (2017) “Narrative Economics”, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No.2069.
7
Housing Market Insight - Canada - Date Released - June 2018
The Market Analysis Centre’s (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHC’s
website. You can view, print, download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automatically
to you the same day it is released. It’s quick and convenient! Go to www.cmhc.ca/en/hoficlincl/homain
For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you, visit us today at
www.cmhc.ca/housingmarketinformation
To subscribe to printed editions of MAC publications, call 1-800-668-2642.
©2018 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. All rights reserved. CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this
publication’s content solely for personal, corporate or public policy research, and educational purposes. This permission
consists of the right to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of
results, conclusions, and forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this
publication. Reasonable and limited rights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above
criteria, and CMHC’s right to request that such use be discontinued for any reason.
Any use of the publication’s content must include the source of the information, including statistical data, acknowledged
as follows:
Source: CMHC (or “Adapted from CMHC,” if appropriate), name of product, year and date of publication issue.
Other than as outlined above, the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or,
if acquired by an organization, to users outside the organization. Placing the publication, in whole or part, on a website
accessible to the public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted.
To use the content of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes
set out above or to request permission to reproduce large portions of, or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications,
please complete the CMHC Copyright request form and email it to CMHC’s Canadian Housing Information Centre at
chic@cmhc.ca. For permission, please provide CHIC with the following information: Publication’s name, year and date
of issue.
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into
any other language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.
The information, analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable,
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The information, analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations for
which Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility.
8
Housing market
intelligence
you can count on
CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre
FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE
Local, regional and national analysis and data pertaining provides a wealth of local,
to current market conditions and future-oriented trends. regional, and national data,
■■ Canadian Housing Statistics
information, and analysis through
■■ Condominium Owners Report
its suite of reports, data tables,
and interactive tools.
■■ Housing Information Monthly
■■ Timely insights
■■ Updates to housing conditions and trends & much more! Subscribe today to stay in the know!