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Minnesota Victory PAC

Frequency Questionnaire

June 25-27, 2018


602 Likely Primary Voters

Q.2 First of all, are you registered to vote in Minnesota?


Total
Yes ................................................................................... 100
No ........................................................................................ -
(ref:REGISTER)

Q.4 In Minnesota, there are Democratic and Republican primaries to nominate candidates for
U.S. Senator, Governor, Congress and other offices. Very few people vote in these party
primaries. What about you? Do you always, usually, sometimes or almost never vote in these
primaries?
Total
Always ............................................................................... 61
Usually ............................................................................... 29
Sometimes ......................................................................... 10
Almost never ........................................................................ -
(Don't know/refused) ............................................................ -
(ref:PRIMUSU)

Q.5 In Minnesota, people can choose to vote in the Democratic, also called the
Democratic-Farmer-Labor or DFL primary, or the Republican primary for elected officials. When
you vote in primaries, do you usually vote in Democratic/DFL primaries, Republican primaries, or
do you not usually vote in primaries?
Total
Democratic/DFL ................................................................. 93
Republican ........................................................................... -
(Sometimes one, sometimes the other) ............................... 7
Do not usually vote in primaries ........................................... -
(Don't Know/Refused) .......................................................... -
(ref:WHICHPRI)

© 2018 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. June, 2018


Minnesota Victory PAC: Frequency Questionnaire, June 25-27, 2018 2

Q.6 As you may know, in August there will be a Democratic primary for Governor, U.S. Senate,
U.S. Congress and other local offices: I know it's a long way off, but what are the chances of your
voting in the Democratic primary election in August: are you almost certain to vote, will you
probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or don't you think you will vote?

Total
Almost certain .................................................................... 83
Probably ............................................................................. 15
50-50................................................................................... 2
Will not vote ......................................................................... -
(Don't know/refused) ........................................................... 0
(ref:WILLVOT)

Q.7 Please rate your level of enthusiasm about voting in the Democratic primary for Governor in
August, where zero means you're not at all enthusiastic about voting and ten means you're
extremely enthusiastic about voting.
Total
10 ....................................................................................... 41
9......................................................................................... 10
8......................................................................................... 19
7.......................................................................................... 9
6.......................................................................................... 3
5......................................................................................... 10
4.......................................................................................... 1
3.......................................................................................... 2
2.......................................................................................... 1
1.......................................................................................... 1
0.......................................................................................... 1
(Don't know/Refused) .......................................................... 3

10 ....................................................................................... 41
8-10.................................................................................... 70
6-10.................................................................................... 81
0-5 ..................................................................................... 16
Mean.................................................................................. 8.2
(ref:ENTHUSIM)

© 2018 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. June, 2018


Minnesota Victory PAC: Frequency Questionnaire, June 25-27, 2018 3

Q.8 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people with one hundred meaning a VERY
WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty
meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the
higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you
have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so.

% % %
Mean Warm Cool ID
8 Mark Dayton................................................................................ 78 79 10 95

9 Amy Klobuchar............................................................................ 87 88 6 96

10 Tim Walz ................................................................................... 67 49 12 73

11 Tina Smith ................................................................................. 70 60 8 78

12 Erin Murphy............................................................................... 62 26 8 47

13 Bernie Sanders ......................................................................... 69 67 15 94

14 Rick Nolan ................................................................................ 60 43 17 75

15 Lori Swanson ............................................................................ 67 55 11 80

16 Peggy Flanagan ........................................................................ 56 15 8 35


(ref:THERM2)

© 2018 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. June, 2018


Minnesota Victory PAC: Frequency Questionnaire, June 25-27, 2018 4

Q.17 Now, let me ask about the Democratic primary election for Governor in August. If the
Democratic primary election for Governor was held today and the candidates were Tim Walz, Erin
Murphy, Tim Holden, Ole Savior, and Lori Swanson, for whom would you vote?
Total
Tim Walz ............................................................................ 28
Lean Tim Walz .................................................................... 1

Lori Swanson ..................................................................... 31


Lean Lori Swanson ............................................................. 5

Erin Murphy........................................................................ 15
Lean Erin Murphy ................................................................ 1

Tim Holden........................................................................... -
Lean Tim Holden ................................................................. 0

Ole Savior ........................................................................... 0


Lean Ole Savior .................................................................. 0

(Other) ................................................................................ 1
Lean (Other)......................................................................... -

(Don't know/refused) .......................................................... 16

Total Tim Walz .................................................................. 29


Total Lori Swanson .......................................................... 37
Total Erin Murphy............................................................. 17
Total Tim Holden ............................................................... 0
Total Ole Savior ................................................................. 0
(ref:GOV18VT1)

© 2018 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. June, 2018


Minnesota Victory PAC: Frequency Questionnaire, June 25-27, 2018 5

Q.19 How certain are you that you would vote for that candidate – are you very certain, somewhat
certain or not certain at all?
Total
Strong Walz ....................................................................... 18
Weak Walz ......................................................................... 12

Strong Swanson ................................................................. 14


Weak Swanson .................................................................. 23

Strong Murphy .................................................................... 9


Weak Murphy ...................................................................... 8

Strong Holden ...................................................................... -


Weak Holden ...................................................................... 0

Strong Savior ...................................................................... 0


Weak Savior........................................................................ 0

Strong Other ....................................................................... 1


Weak Other ......................................................................... 0

(Undecided) ....................................................................... 16
(ref:CERT2)

© 2018 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. June, 2018


Minnesota Victory PAC: Frequency Questionnaire, June 25-27, 2018 6

Q.20 Now i am going to name a few characteristics of candidates for Governor. For each one,
please tell me if you think it is very important, somewhat important, not that important or not at all
important in deciding whom to support in the Democratic primary for Governor.

Not Not Total Impt


Very Smwt That At All DK/ Total Not -
Impt Impt Impt Impt Ref Impt Impt Not
20 (PAWLENTY) A candidate who can
beat Republican Tim Pawlenty in
November. ............................................... 78 13 3 5 1 91 7 84

24 (ACROSS AISLE) A candidate who


has proven they can work with
Democrats and Republicans to solve
problems. ................................................. 69 27 2 2 - 96 4 92

27 (AGENDA) A candidate with a


detailed agenda for moving Minnesota
forward. .................................................... 61 35 2 1 1 96 3 93

26 (VALUES) A candidate who is a true


progressive and will fight for real
Democratic values. .................................. 60 33 5 2 1 92 7 86

25 (CONSERVATIVE) A candidate who


has proven they can win in more
conservative parts of Minnesota. .............. 37 45 11 4 3 82 15 68

[301 Respondents]
21 (SPLIT A) (DFL) A candidate who
won the endorsement of the Minnesota
Democratic Farmer Labor Party or DFL.
................................................................ 29 40 16 13 1 69 29 40

[301 Respondents]
22 (SPLIT B) (DAYTON) A candidate
who has been endorsed by Governor
Mark Dayton. ........................................... 20 47 22 10 1 67 32 35

23 (GREATER MN) A candidate who


comes from Greater Minnesota. ............... 20 37 28 14 2 57 41 15
(ref:IMPBAT)

© 2018 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. June, 2018


Minnesota Victory PAC: Frequency Questionnaire, June 25-27, 2018 7

Q.28 Now, let me read you a series of statements about the candidates in the Democratic primary
for Governor. Please rate each statement on a scale from 0 to 10, where a 10 means it is an
extremely convincing reason to support that candidate in the Democratic primary for Governor, a
0 means not at all convincing, and a 5 would be a neutral response. You may choose any number
between 0 and 10.
% % % % DK/
Mean 10 8-10 6-10 0-5 Ref
[301 Respondents]
29 (SPLIT D) (PARTISAN) Tim Walz is a
Congressman from Mankato. At the age of 17, he
enlisted in the Army and went on to serve 24 years in
the Army National Guard. He was an award-winning
teacher and football coach at Mankato West High
School. Tim ran for Congress in 2006 on a
progressive agenda and won re-election six times in
one of the most conservative districts in Minnesota
and recently led the fight against Donald Trump's
inhume policy of separating families at the border.
Tim will take on Tim Pawlenty and fight for
progressive goals like fully funded K-12 education
and tuition-free education for the first two years in a
public university or community college, making
health care more affordable to all Minnesotans, and
manufacturing renewable energy here in Minnesota.
................................................................................... 8.0 31 70 87 13 -

31 (SWANSON) Lori Swanson is from Minneapolis


and made history by being Minnesota's first female
Attorney General in 2006. She has been twice
reelected by large margins. Before entering public
service, Lori was an attorney in private practice,
where she represented patients who were denied
coverage for lifesaving treatment by their health
insurance companies. As Attorney General, she
took on pharmaceutical companies on behalf of
seniors and patients, took on big banks to end
mortgage lending abuses, and sued the federal
government to prevent it from rolling back toxic
pollution laws. She makes a difference in the lives of
people. She will work to build an ownership society
with a strong middle class, lower the costs of
prescription drugs and reduce the cost of college
education. ................................................................... 7.8 28 63 86 13 0

© 2018 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. June, 2018


Minnesota Victory PAC: Frequency Questionnaire, June 25-27, 2018 8

% % % % DK/
Mean 10 8-10 6-10 0-5 Ref
30 (MURPHY) Erin Murphy is a state representative
from St. Paul. Her father was an auto worker and her
mother worked at a canning factory. Erin waitressed
her way through college and eventually became a
nurse. After he mother was diagnosed with cancer
and denied treatment by her insurance companies,
Erin decided to run for the Minnesota House of
Representatives and won a seat in 2006. She
believes that when we show Minnesotans that we
are fighting for them they'll join us, and is standing
up for an honest, progressive vision for Minnesota.
She is a supporter of a single payer health care
system, banning assault rifles and eliminating the
racial disparities in public schools. She won the
endorsement of the Democratic Farmer Labor party,
the pro-choice group Emily's List, and Governor
Dayton. ....................................................................... 7.6 27 62 80 19 1

[301 Respondents]
28 (SPLIT C) (PRIORITIES) Tim Walz is a
Congressman from Mankato. At the age of 17, he
enlisted in the Army and went on to serve 24 years in
the Army National Guard. He was an award-winning
teacher and football coach at Mankato West High
School and is the father of a high school student and
middle school student. Tim ran for Congress in 2006
on a progressive agenda and won re-election six
times in one of the most conservative districts in
Minnesota. Tim's priorities are: fully funded K-12
education and tuition-free education for the first two
years in a public university or community college,
making health care more affordable and accessible
to all Minnesotans, and manufacturing renewable
energy here in Minnesota. ........................................... 7.6 23 57 86 14 0
(ref:CANDBIOS)

© 2018 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. June, 2018


Minnesota Victory PAC: Frequency Questionnaire, June 25-27, 2018 9

Q.32 Now that you have a little more information, if the Democratic primary election for Governor
were held today and the candidates were Tim Walz, Erin Murphy, Tim Holden, Ole Savior, and
Lori Swanson, for whom would you vote?
Split C
Prior- Split D
Total ities Partisan
Tim Walz ....................................................................... 29 27 32
Lean Tim Walz ............................................................... 1 1 1

Lori Swanson................................................................. 31 32 29
Lean Lori Swanson ......................................................... 2 2 3

Erin Murphy ................................................................... 25 25 25


Lean Erin Murphy ........................................................... 1 1 1

Tim Holden ..................................................................... 0 - 1


Lean Tim Holden ............................................................ - - -

Ole Savior ...................................................................... 0 0 -


Lean Ole Savior.............................................................. - - -

(Other) ............................................................................ 0 1 0
Lean (Other) ................................................................... - - -

(Don't know/refused) ..................................................... 10 12 8

Total Tim Walz ............................................................. 31 28 33


Total Lori Swanson ..................................................... 33 34 32
Total Erin Murphy ........................................................ 26 26 26
Total Tim Holden .......................................................... 0 - 1
Total Ole Savior ............................................................ 0 0 -
(ref:GOV18VT2)

Q.34 Regardless of whom you plan on supporting for Governor, which of the following represents
the best reason to support Tim Walz.
Total
Walz won in a conservative, Trump district and can beat
Tim Pawlenty in November ................................................ 31
Walz' takes on Trump and Pawlenty .................................. 14
Walz' plans for education .................................................... 9
Walz' plan for health care .................................................... 8
Walz' plan for renewable energy ......................................... 6
Walz is focused on building a strong future for
Minnesota. .......................................................................... 6
Walz' experience as a veteran ............................................ 4
Walz' experience as a teacher and coach ........................... 3
(All of these) ....................................................................... 11
(None of these) ................................................................... 3
(Don't know/refused) ........................................................... 6
(ref:WALZSUPP)

© 2018 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. June, 2018


Minnesota Victory PAC: Frequency Questionnaire, June 25-27, 2018 10

Q.35 Now I am going to read you some statements some people have made about one of the
candidates in the Democratic primary for Governor. For each statement I read, please tell me if
you believe this statement is a very convincing reason to support Tim Walz, a somewhat
convincing reason to support Tim Walz, a not very convincing reason or a not at all convincing
reason.
A Not Total Impt
Very Smwt Little At All DK/ Total Not -
Conv Conv Conv Conv Ref Impt Impt Not
42 (IMMIGRATION) Tim Walz helped
lead the fight against Donald Trump's
policy of separating migrant children
from their parents. As the highest
ranking enlisted member of the armed
services to serve in Congress, Walz
stated that as governor and
Commander in Chief of the Minnesota
National Guard, he will never authorize
the Guard to participate in any actions
that separate families. .............................. 64 23 5 6 2 87 11 76

40 (HC) Tim Walz believes health care


is a right and will provide a strong public
health care option for any Minnesotan
who wants it, will work to expand mental
health care treatment and lower the
cost of prescription drugs. ........................ 62 29 4 4 1 91 8 83

35 (CONSERVATIVE) In 2016, Tim


Walz won where Hillary Clinton only got
38 percent of the vote share and has
proven he can win throughout
Minnesota. With Trump in the White
House, now more than ever it is
important that Democrats nominate
someone who can beat Tim Pawlenty
in November and help protect
Minnesota from Trump's worst abuses. .... 56 29 6 7 2 85 13 72

37 (UNION) Minnesota has a strong


economy, but it is not working for
everyone. That is why Tim Walz will
fight to increase union membership, the
surest path to the middle class, pass a
one billion dollar bond to modernize our
infrastructure and invest more in
apprenticeships and skills training, so
that even students who do not go to
college can thrive in a 21st Century
economy. ................................................. 48 41 6 4 2 89 9 80

A Not Total Impt


© 2018 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. June, 2018
Minnesota Victory PAC: Frequency Questionnaire, June 25-27, 2018 11

Very Smwt Little At All DK/ Total Not -


Conv Conv Conv Conv Ref Impt Impt Not
41 (GUNS) Tim Walz is a gun owner
and military veteran and uniquely
positioned to bring both sides together
to achieve real progress on reducing
gun violence, including universal
background checks, improving school
security and a ban on military-grade
assault weapons in Minnesota. ................ 48 35 7 9 1 83 16 67

39 (ENERGY) Tim Walz will increase


the number of wind and solar farms, so
that Minnesota will reduce its reliance
on dirty fossil fuels and help reduce
climate change. ........................................ 45 40 8 5 1 86 13 73

38 (TEACHER) Tim Walz is a former


teacher who pledged that if elected
governor, every Minnesota high school
graduate who is accepted to a state
university or community college will
attend the first two years for free. ............. 44 37 9 8 1 82 17 65

36 (TAX CREDIT) Tim Walz supports


expanding tax credits for families with
children in child care and providing
mothers and fathers with paid parental
leave so that all parents are able to stay
home to welcome new members of their
family. ...................................................... 36 44 11 8 1 80 18 62
(ref:TWPOS)

© 2018 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. June, 2018


Minnesota Victory PAC: Frequency Questionnaire, June 25-27, 2018 12

Q.43 Now that you have a little more information. If the Democratic primary election for Governor
were held today and the candidates were Tim Walz, Erin Murphy, Tim Holden, Ole Savior, and
Lori Swanson, for whom would you vote?
Total
Tim Walz ............................................................................ 43
Lean Tim Walz .................................................................... 3

Lori Swanson ..................................................................... 24


Lean Lori Swanson ............................................................. 3

Erin Murphy........................................................................ 18
Lean Erin Murphy ................................................................ 1

Tim Holden.......................................................................... 0
Lean Tim Holden .................................................................. -

Ole Savior ........................................................................... 1


Lean Ole Savior ................................................................... -

(Other) ................................................................................ 0
Lean (Other)......................................................................... -

(Don't know/refused) ........................................................... 8

Total Tim Walz .................................................................. 45


Total Lori Swanson .......................................................... 26
Total Erin Murphy............................................................. 19
Total Ole Savior ................................................................. 1
Total Tim Holden ............................................................... 0
(ref:GOV18VT3)

Q.45 Now let me read you a statement that could be used to describe Tim Walz. Please tell me
whether this description raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts or no real
doubts in your own mind about Tim Walz.

Until he decided to run for Governor, Tim Walz supported the NRA, had an "A" rating from the
group, and received several campaign donations from the NRA due to his support of their issues.
In fact, as recently as 2016, Guns and Ammo magazine named Walz one of the 20 best
lawmakers on gun rights.
Total
Very serious doubts ........................................................... 21
Serious doubts ................................................................... 27
Minor doubts ...................................................................... 26
No real doubts.................................................................... 22
(Don't know/Refused) .......................................................... 3

Total serious doubts ........................................................ 48


Total not serious doubts ................................................. 49
(ref:TWDBT)

© 2018 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. June, 2018


Minnesota Victory PAC: Frequency Questionnaire, June 25-27, 2018 13

Q.46 Finally, I'd like to ask you a few more questions just for statistical purposes. In what year
were you born?
Total
18 - 24................................................................................. 2
25 - 29................................................................................. 6
30 - 34................................................................................. 4
35 - 39................................................................................. 6
40 - 44................................................................................. 3
45 - 49................................................................................. 7
50 - 54................................................................................. 4
55 - 59................................................................................. 8
60 - 64................................................................................ 12
65 and over ........................................................................ 44
(No answer) ........................................................................ 3
(ref:AGE)

Q.47 What is the last year of schooling that you have completed?
Total
1 - 11th grade...................................................................... 1
High School graduate......................................................... 16
Non-college post H.S. ........................................................ 16
Some college ..................................................................... 10
College graduate ................................................................ 34
Post-graduate school ......................................................... 22
(Don't know/Refused) .......................................................... 1
(ref:EDUC)

Q.48 To ensure we have a representative sample, please tell me, what is your race?

Total
White.................................................................................. 89
Black ................................................................................... 4
Hispanic or Latino ............................................................... 3
Asian American or Pacific Islander ...................................... 1
(Other) ................................................................................ 2
(Don't know/refused) ........................................................... 2
(ref:RACE)

Q.50 Thinking in political terms, would you say that you are Liberal, Moderate, or Conservative?

Total
Liberal ................................................................................ 58
Moderate ............................................................................ 30
Conservative ....................................................................... 8
(Don't know/refused) ........................................................... 4
(ref:IDEO1)

© 2018 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. June, 2018


Minnesota Victory PAC: Frequency Questionnaire, June 25-27, 2018 14

Q.51 Did you vote in the 2016 Presidential Democratic Primary?


Total
Yes, Hillary Clinton ............................................................. 64
Yes, Bernie Sanders .......................................................... 21
Yes (Someone else)............................................................ 3
No ....................................................................................... 5
(Don't Know/Refused) ......................................................... 7

Total Yes ........................................................................... 88


(ref:DEMVOTE)

Q.3 Respondent Gender


Total
Male ................................................................................... 42
Female ............................................................................... 58
(ref:GENDER)

© 2018 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. June, 2018