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Procedia Engineering 122 (2015) 57 – 64

Operational Research in Sustainable Development and Civil Engineering - meeting of EURO

working group and 15th German-Lithuanian-Polish colloquium (ORSDCE 2015)

The Case-Based Reasoning Model Of Cost Estimation At The

Preliminary Stage Of A Construction Project
Krzysztof Zimaa *
a
Cracow University of Technology, Warszawska 24,Kraków 31-155, Poland

Abstract

The paper presents calculation of a unit price of construction elements or works with the use of the case-based reasoning (CBR)
method. The primary source of knowledge in the CBR method is a collection of cases encountered in previous problems and
retained in memory. The solution to a completely new problem is generated by finding the most suitable cases and adjusting them
to the new case. A method of a unit price calculation will be shown which uses the prices found in the accessible set of
previously occurring cases, i.e. it uses the prices listed in estimations presented in offer bids. The CBR systems consist of data
bases in which the cases are stored along with their solutions. So the paper presents a concept of a knowledge base supporting the
process of cost estimation at the preliminary stage of a construction project.
© 2015
© 2015TheTheAuthors.
Authors. Published
Published by by Elsevier
Elsevier Ltd. Ltd.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of the Operational Research in Sustainable Development and Civil
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of the Operational Research in Sustainable Development and Civil
Engineering - meeting of EURO working group and 15th German-Lithuanian-Polish colloquium.
Engineering - meeting of EURO working group and 15th German-Lithuanian-Polish colloquium

Keywords: Case Based Reasoning; construction costs; cost estimation.

1. Introduction

Knowledge acquisition is related to machine learning. It consists in improving a knowledge base by formulation
of new notions, examination of data patterns, acquisition of new notions with the use of examples and analogies and
elimination of redundancy.

* Krzysztof Zima. Tel.:+48 12 628 3090; fax:+48 12 628 2329.

E-mail address: kzima@izwbit.pk.edu.pl

1877-7058 © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of the Operational Research in Sustainable Development and Civil Engineering - meeting
of EURO working group and 15th German-Lithuanian-Polish colloquium
doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2015.10.007
58 Krzysztof Zima / Procedia Engineering 122 (2015) 57 – 64

Knowledge acquisition with the use of examples is a special case of inductive learning. This method of
knowledge acquisition is quite frequently used in creating knowledge bases. The method consists in generating a
general description of concepts (classes) on the basis of a set of examples objectively representing these concepts
(classes). Thus the general description is developed following the principle of induction. The methods of example-
based knowledge acquisition may be differentiated depending on the source of examples.
Reasoning is usually modelled as a process in which the conclusion is arrived at by linking rules representing
generalized knowledge into induction chains. In case-based reasoning the primary source of knowledge are not rules
but a set of cases originating from previously encountered problems and retained in memory. Solutions to
completely new problems are generated by finding the most suitable cases and adjusting them to the new case. CBR
may be defined as models solving new problem cases by adapting the results which were used in solving some old
cases. A new problem is solved by finding a similar case in the available set of cases and applying to it the solution
that was used in the found case or cases. The CBR systems thus consist of a data base in which the cases are stored
along with their solutions. Additionally, they have instruments implementing the algorithms capable of comparing
cases and adapting solutions.
The problems of construction cost or indirect cost estimation have been discussed inter alia in [1], [2], and the
problems related to exceeding the said cost have been described inter alia in [3]. Numerous attempts are currently
being made to improve the accuracy of construction cost estimation. For example, some of them make use of neural
networks. The basic methods and problems of unit price estimation for construction works have been discussed in
[4]. Gunaydın et al. [5] presented a model of early cost calculation of structural systems of building using neural
networks. They based the cost estimation process on 9 project parameters. Gwang-Hee Kima et al. [6] took into
account 12 parameters in their calculations and combined the neural networks with genetic algorithms. Similarly,
Juszczyk in his work [7] used neural networks for calculating the cost of erection of multifamily buildings at the
early stage of planning. In contrast, in [8] the multi-criteria analysis methodology was used to calculate the execution
cost of one selected element, which were the walls.
Case based reasoning may be used in cost calculations of construction of buildings. For example, Sung-Hoon et
al. [9] proposed a model using previous experience in cost calculations. AHP was used to elicit domain knowledge
from the experts systematically.
CBR provides a simple method of construction costs measurement, given the fact that most studies have
identified the existence of nonlinear relations between the cost and the influence of factors. [10] and [11] have
demonstrated it on the example of bridge and road works, whereas [12], [13] have presented a comparison for
construction works.
Cost calculation also uses hybrid systems, in which case-based reasoning is a component. For example, in [14]
the CBR system has been supported in cost calculation by the AHP method used for the purpose of determining the
weight of individual criteria. This study focused on the development of a more accurate estimate technique for
highway projects in South Korea at the early stage of cost estimation. Other methods are also used in cost
calculation.
Studies comparing CBR to other predictive methods, such as neuron networks [15] and parametric methods [15],
[16], have demonstrated that the CBR cost estimation model may retain a high quality of prediction for a longer time
– better than other models, and its solution finding capability remains high in spite of the imprecision of certain
information. The cost model developed by [17] was based on the CBR methodology. The cost estimation model is
based on similar historical cases as the basis for the cost calculations. Mesaros et al. analyzed the empirical
approaches of Slovak construction companies to cost management and examined wide range of cost management
and cost controlling methods and IT tools [18].

2. The case-based reasoning system – CBR

Reasoning on the basis of known cases is a method using similar cases which have been once solved operating on
the presumption that similar cases have similar solutions. An important feature differentiating CBR from other
reasoning methods is that this method is characterized by a mechanism of the system’s continuous learning in a way
that is independent of the expert. The learning process takes place by accumulation of cases (solutions) in a data base
and making them accessible for solving new problems in the future. Solved cases stored in the data base usually
 Krzysztof Zima / Procedia Engineering 122 (2015) 57 – 64 59

contain the knowledge that is specific to a given problem. The data base does not have to contain complete or
comprehensive knowledge from a given field [19]. In order to acquisition knowledge from the cost estimates,
technical specifications may be used, for example, text mining methods that have been described, among others, in
[20].
The operation cycle of the system implementing the CBR method may be described in short with the use of four
Rs:
x Retrieve – finding the most similar case or set of cases,
x Reuse – using the knowledge contained in this case for solving the problem,
x Revise – assessing the usefulness of the suggested solution,
x Retain – storing the experience in memory for the purpose of its later use while solving new problems in
the future.
The quality and effectiveness of the CBR method depends on four factors:
x the manner and accuracy of the modelled area mapping,
x the quality of the comparison making,
x the methods of solution adaptation,
x accuracy in case description.

3. Preliminary cost estimation model using the CBR methodology

The CBR method may be used in construction inter alia for the purposes of cost management or preparing reliable
project cost estimations for the investor, reflecting the market prices. The main idea of this concept is viewing the
prepared cost estimate as a data base and making the assumption that the information on costs will be accumulated
and stored.
The first stage of the presented method is creation of an adequate data base containing costs of construction works
or elements. The data base on costs is based on real estimates submitted in offer bids for construction of various
sports facilities, such as: sports halls, football pitches, tennis courts, skate parks, etc. The offered estimates have been
broken down within the data base into individual uniform groups of works W 1, W2, …. Wn or construction elements
E1, E2, …. En. Each construction work or element has been described providing various types of information
included in the estimates, such as: the cost of work, the scope of works, date of realization, location of the facility
where the work or element belongs, etc.

‫݁ݏܽܥ‬௜ ൌ ሺ‫݊݋݅ݐݑ݈݋ݏ‬௜ ǡ ‫݊݋݅ݐܽݑݐ݅ݏ‬௜ ǡ ݀݁‫݊݋݅ݐ݌݅ݎܿݏ‬௜ ሻ‫ܥݎ݋‬௜ ൌ ሺܵ௜ ǡ ܵ‫ݐ‬௜ ǡ ‫ܦ‬௜ ሻ (1)

where:
Si – solution of the i-th case, i.e. the unit cost of a construction work or an element,
Sti – situation for the i-th case, i.e. the estimate situation for the i-th case (date of execution, project location, the
scope of works),
Di – description of the i-th case, i.e. additional information on the i-th case (such as the type or kind of element,
advantages of the solution, preferences).
And thus the data base is a collection of all cases (construction works or elements) containing the solutions of the
problem, situations and descriptions.

‫ ܤܦ‬ൌ σ௡௜ୀଵ ‫ܥ‬௜ ൌ σ௡௜ୀଵሺܵ௜ ǡ ܵ‫ݐ‬௜ ǡ ‫ܦ‬௜ ሻ (2)

where:
DB – relative data base,
Ci – the i-th case,
n – the number of cases.
The data base structure has a hierarchic form so that the information could be arranged in an orderly fashion,
which facilitates finding the desired construction elements E 1, E2, …. En or works W1, W2, …. Wn making up the
scope of work for the new estimate calculation. The information has been ordered by indexing construction elements
60 Krzysztof Zima / Procedia Engineering 122 (2015) 57 – 64

Ei and works Wi, which will allow reducing the number of necessary similarity examinations. Similarity
examinations will only be carried out within the groups of uniform works or elements, according to the ascribed
indices.
The procedure of cost estimation based on CBR has been presented in Fig. 1.

Fig. 1. Cost estimation based on CBR scheme.

The next step is assessment of similarity between the cases retrieved from the data base and the new case. We are
thus looking for a case in which the situation for the i-th case from the data base Sti is equal to the situation for the
new case StN. It is an ideal situation, where we could assume that solution Si = SN, which means that the unit price of
the work or element will be the same or very close to the i-th solution for the new case. If such situation does not
occur, we must find the solutions that are the most similar to the new case. So, we must find a work or element that
is the closest taking into account the description parameters. In order to do that, we need to determine local
similarities for individual construction elements or works SIM (S N, Si)  [0,1], where 0 means no similarity and 1 –
complete similarity.
Three situations may be enumerated in the created data base DB for which local similarities are calculated with
the use of different formulas [based on 21]:
x for the sub-criteria adopting numerical values within the range [V min – Vmax]

ห௏ಿ ି௏ೕ ห
ܵ‫ܯܫ‬൫ܸே ǡ ܸ௝ ൯ ൌ ͳ െ (3)
௏೘ೌೣ ି௏೘೔೙

x for the sub-criteria described by linguistic values

ห௡ሺ௏ಿ ሻି௡ሺ௏ೕ ሻห
ܵ‫ܯܫ‬൫ܸே ǡ ܸ௝ ൯ ൌ ͳ െ (4)
ெିଵ

x for the sub-criteria in which one or both values are unknown

ܵ‫ܯܫ‬ሺܸே ǡ ݊‫ܽݐܽ݀݋‬ሻ ൌ Ͳ (5)

The next step is adaptation, i.e. modification of the solution to make it more suitable for the solution of the new
case. The process of unit cost modification in the model is aimed at adjusting the cost of construction works to the
 Krzysztof Zima / Procedia Engineering 122 (2015) 57 – 64 61

location of a given project and at introducing further corrections to accommodate the indexation of cost of materials
as well as labor and equipment operation prices. The model implements automatic adaptation in this respect, based
on the data base of regional and indexation rates. However, the model also features the option of adaptation by the
user if no similar case has been found in the data base DB. In such situation, the user – by definition familiar with
the cost estimation methods and processes – will prepare a classic cost estimate for individual construction works for
which the model has found no solution.
The last step is evaluation of the obtained solution based on local or global testing of the model. Testing may be
done both on the local level – for individual construction works and elements – and on the global level – referring it
to the final outcome of the cost estimate.
Practical verification of the results obtained from the proposed model may be done by comparing the estimated
total cost of the new case with the actual cost for the selected testing set, so that the mean absolute estimation error
could be calculated with the use of the following formula:

หి షి ห
σ ిా౎ ఽి౐
ిఽి౐
 ൌ ‫ͲͲͳ כ‬Ψ (6)
୬

where:
MAEE – mean absolute estimation error,
CCBR – estimated cost of the new case,
CACT – actual cost of the case from the selected testing set,
N – the number of tested cases.

4. Example of cost estimation based on the CBR model

Simplified calculations for a sports field construction in the town of Alwernia will now be discussed as an
example. The project includes construction works consisting in removal of the hummus layer, making the sub-base
and paving the area around the field with setts as well as installation of the field surface made of synthetic turf and
setting up the football goals.

Table 1. Breaking down into construction elements and works in the data base, together with indexing.
Main group Index Subgroup
Construction works R1010 Removal of hummus
R1020 Excavation and Fill
R2010 Subbase Layer
… … …
Elements E3010 Pavement surfaces
E4010 Pedestrian Pavement Curbs
… … …
E5010 Sports fields surfaces
… … …
E7010 Sports Equipment
E8010 Protective/safety nets
… … …

The data base DB has been developed by breaking down the cost estimates prepared by prospective contractors
and presented in their offer bids in the tender procedure. The data base includes only selected offers, rejecting
projects which have not been completed yet or have ended in failure. Breaking down the cost estimates is combined
with the process of construction elements and works indexing with the purpose of creating the first level of
62 Krzysztof Zima / Procedia Engineering 122 (2015) 57 – 64

automated selection of desired cases and thus limiting the number of comparisons in the process of finding identical
solutions. A fragment of the base DB with indexed construction elements and works has been presented in Table 1.
The indexing system has been invented by the Author and adopted for sports fields. Each case included in the base
DB has been described following formula (1). An example entry for an element is presented below:

Casei(E3010) = (76.68 PLN/m2; 28.02.14, Dąbrówka Nowa, 392m2; concrete sett, 19.8×16.2×6.0)

The above entry signifies the i-th case with index E3010 – pavement surfaces. The stored information is as
follows:
x solution – unit price of pavement surface installation: 76.68 PLN/m2;
x situation – the date of submitting the offer: 22 April 2014, location of the project: Dąbrówka Nowa, the
amount of works from the bill of quantities: 392 m2.
x description – the type of material: concrete sett, dimensions (length, width, thickness): 19.8 x 16.2 x 6.0
cm.
A fragment of the data base has been presented in Tab. 2.

Table 2. Fragment of the data base for the element Pavement surfaces.
Wi Si Di
Date of Amount
Project name
Unit price submitting Project location of works Material
the offer [m2]
Construction of a multi-purpose sports
field at Primary School no 44 in Bytom, 6 69.86 PLN 24.02.2014 Bytom 781 concrete sett, 19.8×16.2×6.0
Grota-Roweckiego street
Construction of a multi-purpose sports Dąbrówka
76.68 PLN 28.02.2014 392 concrete sett, 19.8×16.2×6.0
field in Dąbrówka Nowa Nowa
Construction of a sports field in the village carpet lawn created from the
no data 04.03.2014 Biskupie no data
of Biskupie seed
Construction of a sports field at the branch
of the Primary School in Suchy Las (the
concrete pavement slabs of
area of Forteczna street) together with the 86.34 PLN 07.04.2014 Suchy Las 100
dimensions: 35x35x5
accompanying infrastructure, Suchy Las
commune
Construction of a multi-purpose sports carpet lawn created from the
16.45 PLN 26.08.2014 Augustów 3000
field in Gymnasium no 2 in Augustów seed
Construction of a multi-purpose sports carpet lawn created from the
17.64 PLN 02.05.2014 Głowno 4840
field at Primary School no 1 in Głowno seed

The first step for the new case in the CBR model is to see whether the base DB contains an identical case,
disregarding, obviously, the date of submitting the offer. If there is no such case, and this is what always happens in
practice, we must proceed to calculate the similarities in the main indexed groups which make up the scope of works
in the new case. Example calculations for the main group E3010 – Pavement surfaces – have been presented in Tab.
3.
SIME3010(NS, Sim) is a partial assessment of similarity for the element pavement surfaces, which is a sum of
products of weights and local similarities SIM material(vn, vj) and SIMamount of works(vn, vj). A similar calculation
procedure, yet with different assessment criteria, is applicable to the remaining construction works and elements.
Automatic modification of the selected solution requires correcting the selected price by the indexing and
regional coefficient. Due to its high similarity (0.99), the selected solution has the unit price equal to 76.68 PLN/m2.
After correcting it first by the regional coefficient and then by the indexation coefficient: C j(E3010) = 76.68 * 0.98 *
0.964 = 72.81 PLN/m2.
 Krzysztof Zima / Procedia Engineering 122 (2015) 57 – 64 63

Table 3. Calculation of similarity for the main group – Pavement surfaces.

Assessment criteria Cases from the data base DB

New case

Suchy Las
Dąbrówka

Augustów
Biskupie

Głowno
Bytom

Nowa

slabs of dimensions:
carpet lawn created

carpet lawn created

carpet lawn created

concrete pavement
19.8×16.2×6.0

19.8×16.2×6.0

19.8×16.2×6.0

from the seed

from the seed

from the seed

concrete sett,

concrete sett,

concrete sett,

35x35x5
Material

Amount of works 500 781 392 no data 100 3000 4840

New case – similarity calculation
SIMmaterial(Vn, Vj) - 1 1 0 0 0 0
SIMamount of work(Vn, Vj) - 0.94 0.98 0 0.92 0.47 0.08
SIME3010(NS, Sim) - 0.98 0.99 0 0.27 0.14 0.03

The last step is determination of the final estimated price of the new case equal to the sum of construction
elements or works making up the total amount of works multiplied by the amount of works from the bill of work
quantities:

‫ܥ‬௄ே஼ ൌ ‫݆ܥ‬ଵᇱ ሺܴͳͲͳͲሻ ‫ܮ כ‬ଵ ሺܴͳͲͳͲሻ ൅ ‫݆ܥ‬ଶᇱ ሺܴʹͲͳͲሻ ‫ܮ כ‬ଶ ሺܴʹͲͳͲሻ ൅ ‫݆ܥ‬ଷᇱ ሺ‫ͲͳͲ͵ܧ‬ሻ ‫ܮ כ‬ଷ ሺ‫ͲͳͲ͵ܧ‬ሻ ൅ ‫݆ܥ‬ସᇱ ሺ‫ܧ‬ͷͲͳͲሻ
‫ܮ כ‬ସ ሺ‫ܧ‬ͷͲͳͲሻ ൅ ‫݆ܥ‬ହᇱ ሺ‫ܧ‬͹Ͳͳͳሻ ‫ܮ כ‬ହ ሺ‫ܧ‬͹Ͳͳͳሻ

That is:

‫ܥ‬௄ே஼ ൌ Ͳǡͺ͸ ‫ ͲͲͻʹ כ‬൅ ʹʹǡͳͺ ‫ כ‬͹ͷ ൅ ͹ʹǡͺͳ ‫ כ‬ͷͲͲ ൅ ͳͺͲͳǡʹͷ ‫ʹͳ כ‬ͷǡͲͲ ൅ ʹ ‫͵ כ‬ͷͲͲ ൌ ʹ͹ʹ͹ͳͺǡ͹ͷܲ‫ܰܮ‬

where:
‫ܥ‬௄ே஼ – the cost estimate price for the new case,
‫݆ܥ‬ଵᇱ ሺܴͳͲͳͲሻ – the unit price of work no 1 with index R1010 removal of hummus (indexing in compliance with Tab.
1.)
L1(R1010) – the amount of works for the new case related to work with index R1010 removal of hummus.
Global mean absolute estimation error in this particular case is as follows:

ȁʹ͹ʹ͹ͳͺǡ͹ͷ െ ʹͺͻʹͳͻǡ͸ͷȁ
σ
ʹͺͻʹͳͻǡ͸ͷ
 ൌ ൌ ͲǡͲͷ͹
ͳ

Assuming that the mean calculation error in Poland, viewed as the difference between the calculation prepared by
the investor and the calculation of the chosen offer ranges within 30 – 40 %, the result may be considered
satisfactory.

5. Conclusions

The unquestionable advantages of the presented model are its simplicity and the calculation speed. In comparison
with other methods, the good point of CBR is undoubtedly that it allows avoiding the laborious development of
64 Krzysztof Zima / Procedia Engineering 122 (2015) 57 – 64

rules. The mean absolute estimation error is influenced by the size of the case base (the greater the base, the higher
the chances of finding more similar cases) and by the correction coefficients. Unfortunately, the passage of time and
the territorial differences in prices influence the final outcome of calculations. Solution adaptation taking into
account the project location and the inflation is therefore a necessary component, yet it promotes a greater estimation
error since precise determination of the values of such factors is difficult. In general, however, the method may be
applied to cost estimation of a project at its conceptual stage or to the investor’s cost calculations based on the design
documentation. Nevertheless, it requires a large data base composed of cost calculations taken from a great number
of offer bids.

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