RAPP 2018 MODEL - V1

RESULTS: DFL GOVERNOR PRIMARY

Murphy/Quay Meade 171,928.94 34.0%

Swanson/Nolan 168,955.51 33.4%
Walz/Flanagan 164,705.81 32.6%

ASSUMPTIONS

Across-the-board increase in turnout 7%

SOUTH RURAL - OTHER

Population Growth 1% -2%
Close Primary turnout bump 0% 0%

Murphy/Quay Meade 15% 15%

Swanson/Nolan 20% 40%
Walz/Flanagan 65% 45%

TOTAL SOUTH RURAL

2010 Turnout 442,137 60,267 33,322

2018 Turnout 505,590 65,088 34,988

 35% = 176,957
37.5% = 189,596
40% = 202,236

CD8 NORTH - OTHER GROWTH SUBURBAN - CD5

0% -2% 8% 3%
10% 0% 0% 8%

25% 25% 30% 35%

50% 45% 35% 35%
25% 30% 35% 30%

CD8 NORTH - OTHER GROWTH SUBURBAN - CD5

71,691 14,241 37,923 21,080

83,878 14,953 43,611 24,874

SUBURBAN - OTHER URBAN - CD5 URBAN - OTHER
3% 6% 5%
0% 15% 5%

30% 60% 60%

40% 20% 20%
30% 20% 20%

SUBURBAN - OTHER URBAN - CD5 URBAN

98,478 62,388 42,747

108,326 79,857 50,014