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TABLA: BASE DE DATOS (ZONA 2).

ZONA 2 INTERMEDIOS
DIA MES AÑO HORA MINUTO SEGUNDO LATITUD LONGITUD PROFUNDIDAD MAGNITUD AÑOS JULIANOS
20 3 2017 13 1 45.2 17.89 -100.35 58 4.7 2017.30522
22 6 2017 3 55 11.79 17.8 -99.94 56 5.2 2017.55958
19 11 2016 11 28 30.78 17.82 -100.19 51 4.2 2016.96903
28 8 2015 1 56 1.2 18.15 -99.46 52 4.3 2015.74215
2 1 2014 10 37 24.7 17.94 -99.78 55 4.4 2014.0899
7 1 2014 6 9 6.5 18.05 -99.81 50 4.6 2014.10284
19 2 2014 12 3 33 17.86 -99.72 56 4.5 2014.21909
27 12 2014 13 33 38.4 18.4 -99.85 56 4.3 2015.0741
22 5 2013 14 13 37.19 18.4 -100.61 70 4.8 2013.4774
21 12 2013 4 32 1.7 18.19 -100.27 53 4.5 2014.05696
27 4 2012 23 42 55 18.11 -99.86 52 4.4 2012.40857
15 11 2012 9 20 21.91 18.35 -100.38 53 6.1 2012.95804
15 12 2012 15 16 3.9 17.84 -100.07 53 4.4 2013.04203
22 2 2011 4 8 1.8 18.15 -100.09 59 4.4 2011.22627
25 8 2011 13 14 11.4 17.98 -100.25 51 4.4 2011.73535
18 11 2011 8 28 36.9 17.99 -99.99 56 4.6 2011.966
11 12 2011 1 47 25.56 17.99 -99.79 59 6.5 2012.02977
24 11 2010 12 28 27 18.24 -100.02 53 4.4 2010.98258
14 1 2009 17 4 35.8 18.1 -100.07 51 4.3 2009.12288
25 1 2009 11 46 29.1 18.06 -100.84 74 4.4 2009.15186
23 3 2009 10 4 50 18.14 -100.39 53 4.4 2009.31296
15 8 2009 13 22 43.42 18.18 -100.37 57 5.5 2009.70849
23 2 2008 22 28 31.9 17.69 -100.21 70 4.7 2008.23101
2 4 2008 16 19 3.6 18.16 -100.46 64 4 2008.34054
3 4 2008 13 47 11.7 18.18 -99.83 49 4.1 2008.34294
13 4 2008 17 32 27.4 18.03 -99.51 68 4 2008.37024
22 4 2008 8 49 35.3 17.93 -100.73 68 4 2008.39346
22 4 2008 18 54 28.8 18.31 -100.58 62 4.2 2008.39459
27 4 2008 4 7 17.5 18.02 -100.44 58 4.3 2008.40638
28 4 2008 0 6 28.1 17.85 -100.17 57 5.8 2008.40861
11 5 2008 10 27 30.3 18.07 -99.93 50 4.2 2008.44741
24 5 2008 21 19 7.4 17.83 -100.16 54 4.2 2008.48357
4 7 2008 2 15 56.2 18.04 -100.68 52 4.7 2008.59434
21 1 2007 20 41 58 18.18 -99.97 50 4.1 2007.1421
14 2 2007 2 16 16.2 18.3 -99.39 51 3.9 2007.20456
14 2 2007 3 56 20.5 18.36 -99.52 52 4.1 2007.20474
25 2 2007 4 27 6 18.02 -100.66 54 4.5 2007.23437
28 5 2007 20 36 12 18.48 -100.05 55 4.5 2007.49424
4 7 2007 21 18 43.4 18.02 -100.44 73 3.9 2007.59647
28 7 2007 13 45 24.3 18.05 -100.84 49 5.1 2007.66014
26 8 2007 0 40 40.7 18.22 -100.56 62 4.7 2007.73664
11 9 2007 15 21 14.9 18.01 -99.68 110 4.2 2007.78129
12 10 2007 3 32 25.9 18.09 -99.85 46 4.9 2007.86599
20 10 2007 14 32 28.7 17.95 -100.4 66 4.5 2007.88873
25 10 2007 2 11 4.1 17.78 -100.44 61 4.4 2007.90078
14 12 2007 5 2 31.2 18.1 -100.83 66 4.4 2008.0382
3 1 2006 10 3 2.7 18.13 -99.59 56 4.2 2006.09252
20 2 2006 10 54 23.7 18.15 -100.75 51 5.2 2006.22165
26 6 2006 15 49 20.1 18.03 -100.02 54 4.7 2006.57166
10 7 2006 8 29 43.84 17.69 -99.47 98 4.1 2006.61117
29 10 2006 5 23 48.8 17.94 -99.68 52 4.1 2006.91189
30 11 2006 4 19 49 18.18 -100.36 62 4.4 2006.9978
20 12 2006 9 43 35.6 18.17 -100.46 66 4.3 2007.05485
18 1 2005 15 36 18.1 18.27 -100.64 69 4.1 2005.13347
23 3 2005 21 56 27.4 18.28 -100.17 76 4.1 2005.31429
20 4 2005 13 29 27.1 18.03 -100.83 66 4.1 2005.38861
30 4 2005 23 20 43.4 17.74 -99.84 69 4.2 2005.41659
26 5 2005 15 56 0.09 18.22 -99.59 93 5.2 2005.48834
12 7 2005 9 19 27.3 18.24 -100.3 63 4.3 2005.61664
15 8 2005 19 18 56 18.07 -99.88 56 3.9 2005.70915
28 9 2005 18 52 54.1 17.87 -99.82 61 4 2005.82738
21 11 2005 14 50 43.6 17.93 -100.3 63 4.6 2005.97478
28 11 2005 8 48 29.8 18.21 -100.49 48 4.2 2005.99292
18 2 2004 17 58 18.9 18.16 -100.33 73 4 2004.21707
21 4 2004 22 53 4.8 18.06 -99.95 50 4.4 2004.39235
3 9 2004 8 47 56.8 18.07 -100.28 67 4.1 2004.75905
3 9 2004 22 32 19.7 18.07 -100.53 60 4 2004.76059
18 9 2004 6 22 17 18.06 -99.61 68 4.1 2004.7991
28 10 2004 20 30 1.06 18.45 -99.77 61 5.2 2004.9109
22 11 2004 3 49 25.9 17.99 -99.55 59 4.5 2004.97623
24 11 2004 3 46 16.5 17.97 -100.66 68 4.1 2004.98161
30 11 2004 6 7 34 17.96 -99.55 71 4.2 2004.998
24 12 2004 14 43 56.9 18.04 -100.65 61 3.9 2005.06617
28 12 2004 14 11 27.4 18.02 -100.48 60 4.4 2005.07686
17 1 2003 7 17 45.1 18.06 -100.66 58 4.2 2003.12985
26 4 2003 4 27 2.5 18.16 -100.33 57 4.3 2003.40372
30 4 2003 17 25 52.1 18.22 -100.25 52 4.2 2003.41593
5 8 2003 19 34 38.1 17.92 -100.4 73 4.3 2003.6823
24 9 2003 8 3 13.7 17.88 -99.98 62 4 2003.81542
28 10 2003 0 41 9.5 18.15 -100.6 50 4.2 2003.90868
26 12 2003 23 7 39.5 18.14 -100.77 59 4.1 2004.07248
6 1 2002 21 25 21.7 18.04 -100.6 67 4.4 2002.10186
25 2 2002 18 12 30.4 18.2 -100.54 46 4.4 2002.23591
2 3 2002 21 15 54.7 18.36 -100.12 51 4.5 2002.25776
18 3 2002 18 56 16.4 17.88 -99.42 79 4.1 2002.30051
8 4 2002 22 33 2.1 18.3 -99.68 67 4.1 2002.35736
27 6 2002 4 59 48.39 17.85 -100.34 72 4.8 2002.57314
14 7 2002 18 45 39.4 18.1 -100.2 71 4.4 2002.62307
14 9 2002 13 9 56.8 18.31 -100.47 57 4.1 2002.78911
20 11 2002 6 25 48.1 17.91 -100.72 61 4.5 2002.97115
10 12 2002 3 9 40.11 17.88 -100.91 86 5.5 2003.02724
21 12 2002 3 37 0.5 17.76 -99.81 62 4.5 2003.05686
4 2 2001 19 23 49.7 18.08 -100.53 61 4.4 2001.17959
6 2 2001 9 45 37.59 17.99 -100.32 71 4.5 2001.18389
23 2 2001 7 23 14.3 18.06 -99.86 64 4.5 2001.22932
31 5 2001 1 58 18.1 18.04 -99.37 69 4.1 2001.50022
16 7 2001 21 39 21.8 17.85 -99.53 50 4.4 2001.62877
15 9 2001 17 10 1.5 17.75 -99.54 66 4 2001.79225
24 10 2001 15 49 40.6 18.15 -100.12 55 4 2001.89962
17 2 2000 14 44 27.6 17.95 -100.69 89 3.9 2000.21402
20 2 2000 15 11 39.7 17.91 -100.08 86 4.4 2000.22213
17 3 2000 15 7 1.5 18.1 -100.55 68 4.3 2000.29739
2 5 2000 8 5 48.5 17.96 -100.69 58 4.3 2000.42295
28 6 2000 7 54 58.7 17.92 -100.48 78 4.1 2000.57616
18 9 2000 16 9 43.4 18.17 -100.73 50 4.2 2000.8002
30 11 2000 5 44 1.6 17.81 -100.62 56 4.2 2000.99795
13 12 2000 3 13 2.4 17.82 -100.16 78 4.4 2001.03531
3 3 1999 18 53 1.35 17.82 -100.19 76 4.7 1999.26018
11 5 1999 22 21 30.2 17.88 -99.63 67 4.2 1999.44874
12 5 1999 13 17 39.23 18.15 -99.56 55 4 1999.45041
3 8 1999 4 7 53 17.7 -99.56 77 4.1 1999.67519
26 8 1999 14 31 32.2 17.9 -100.67 73 4.6 1999.73819
1 5 1998 2 26 19.6 18.21 -99.86 49 4.3 1998.41963
5 8 1998 16 49 56.41 18.02 -100.22 68 5 1998.68199
25 10 1998 1 58 52.1 17.96 -100.97 86 4.6 1998.90076
9 5 1997 3 49 6.85 18.21 -100.4 100 4 1997.44129
29 7 1997 9 49 53.31 18.33 -100.5 100 4.3 1997.66239
10 1 1996 17 8 38.86 18.37 -100.27 100 3.9 1996.11214
21 6 1996 16 12 50.41 18.43 -100.41 61 4.7 1996.55827
22 4 1994 6 20 27.9 18.66 -100.3 70 5 1994.39318
23 5 1994 1 41 42.29 18.17 -100.53 55 6.3 1994.47868
19 7 1993 15 11 25.36 18.4 -100.35 56 5.4 1993.63611
29 8 1993 8 40 43.56 18.37 -100.62 87 5.3 1993.7456
17 11 1992 7 58 36.75 18.26 -100.61 82 4.8 1992.96326
24 11 1990 2 59 57.14 18.05 -100.4 59 4.3 1990.98152
29 11 1990 5 30 25.9 18.28 -100.58 85 4.8 1990.99524
29 5 1988 6 11 40.63 18.23 -100.02 69 5 1988.49532
3 12 1987 12 6 11.06 18.02 -100.58 94 4.3 1988.00942
11 6 1986 21 39 47.35 18.27 -100.64 52 5.6 1986.532
14 12 1986 7 28 6.1 17.84 -100.33 101 4.7 1987.03847
17 2 1985 0 1 33.91 18.02 -100.46 66 5 1985.21237
21 2 1983 10 6 20.39 18.29 -99.66 83 4.7 1983.22425
6 8 1983 21 28 27.66 18.04 -100.29 95 4.7 1983.6852
13 9 1983 2 19 33.07 18.07 -100.59 75 5.9 1983.78521
24 7 1982 7 31 52.18 18.27 -99.95 68 4.7 1982.64869
16 8 1982 5 12 24.43 18.03 -100.07 56 5.2 1982.71026
8 7 1980 5 54 8.7 18.72 -100.21 95 4.1 1980.6055
26 3 1978 19 57 21.2 18.06 -99.52 84 5.2 1978.32213
5 7 1978 20 15 16.3 18.49 -100.01 62 6.2 1978.59904
11 7 1978 9 53 56.5 18.34 -100.49 116 4.8 1978.61401
17 7 1978 4 26 51.8 18.32 -100.07 161 4.7 1978.62953
22 6 1976 21 45 38.9 17.93 -100.84 88 5.2 1976.56158
19 9 1976 20 58 5.1 18.22 -100.47 55 6.2 1976.80342
3 12 1976 0 48 42 18.09 -100.77 120 4.8 1977.00816
4 5 1975 11 9 54.5 18.46 -100.53 158 4.7 1975.42867
4 7 1974 22 27 54.8 18.5 -100.43 76 5 1974.5966
30 10 1974 0 3 8.7 18.41 -99.63 81 5 1974.91398
8 6 1973 18 5 35.3 18.04 -100.46 107 4.7 1973.52353
8 11 1973 13 18 12 18.13 -99.69 71 5.9 1973.93966
13 4 1967 19 59 53 18.31 -100.13 85 5.8 1967.37052
6 7 1964 7 22 13 18.14 -100.61 93 7.3 1964.60029

TABLA 02: FRECUENCIA DE SISMOS POR AÑO

N° años N° sismos
1978 1
1979 1
1980 1
1981 1
1982 1
1983 1
1984 1
1985 1
1986 1
1987 1
1988 1
1989 2
1990 2
1991 2
1992 2
1993 2
1994 2
1995 2
1996 2
1997 2
1998 2
1999 2
2000 3
2001 3
2002 3
2003 3
2004 4
2005 4
2006 4
2007 4
2008 5
2009 7
2010 7
2011 7
2012 8
2013 10
2014 11
2015 11
2016 11
2017 13
total 151

CALCULO DE V:

TABLA 03: RESULTADOS, HALLANDO K

K  N  n ,t  
v n e (  vt )
n!

Fr. De N de
clase (n) años n k
0 14 3.303407046
1 11 9.231790079
2 11 12.89970429
3 4 12.01662005
4 4 8.395492309
5 1 4.692453671
6 0 2.185609516
7 3 0.872566153
8 1 0.304812102
9 0 0.094648454
10 1 0.026450711
11 3 0.006719988
12 0 0.001564988
13 1 0.000336428
GRAFICA DE POISSON

Distribucion de Poisson de 1978 - 2017


16
14
NUMERO DE AÑOS 12
10
8
N° de sismos
6
k
4
2
0
1 4 7 10 13
FRECUENCIA DE CLASE

GRAFICA N° 1 La distribución de Poisson

TABLA 04: FRECUENCIA DE SISMOS POR MAGNITUD

MAGNITUD N° SISMOS
3.9 6
4 11
4.1 19
4.2 15
4.3 14
4.4 20
4.5 11
4.6 5
4.7 14
4.8 6
4.9 1
5 6
5.1 1
5.2 7
5.3 1
5.4 1
5.5 2
5.6 1
5.7 0
5.8 2
5.9 2
6 0
6.1 1
6.2 2
6.3 1
6.4 0
6.5 1
6.6 0
6.7 0
6.8 0
6.9 0
7 0
7.1 0
7.2 0
7.3 1
total 151

TABLA 05: REGRESION POR MINIMOS CUADRADOS

Nº DE
P MAGNITUD (X) SISMOS(N) LOG N (Y) X^2 XY
1 4 6 0.77815125 16 3.112605
2 4.5 90 1.954242509 20.25 8.79409129
3 5 32 1.505149978 25 7.52574989
4 5.5 12 1.079181246 30.25 5.93549685
5 6 5 0.698970004 36 4.19382003
6 6.5 5 0.698970004 42.25 4.54330503
7 7 0 0 49 0
8 7.5 1 0 56.25 0
SUMA 46 151 6.714664993 275 34.1050681
Frecuencia - Magnitud
2.5 y = -0.6767x + 4.8768
R² = 0.9704
2

1.5

LOG N 1

0.5

0
4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8
-0.5
MAGNITUD (MB)

sismos Linear (sismos)

GRAFICA N° 2 La imagen muestra la dispersión de los puntos, número de sismos en función de las magnitudes, para
poder hacer la regresión por el método de mínimos cuadrados se hace uso de fórmulas presentadas en la tabla
anterior, se obtiene un error de 3%.

TABLA 06: PERIODO DE RECURRENCIA

Magnitud YI %Pr(M) %Pr(M) %Pr(M)3 %Pr(M)4 %Pr(M)5


1 2 5 10 50
4 0.72009414 51.3293564 76.3116845 97.2689136 99.9254117 100
5 0.26817146 23.5223356 41.5116685 73.8378711 93.1554301 99.9998498
6 0.09987018 9.50451068 18.1056641 39.3075508 63.1642661 99.3218174
7 0.03719282 3.65096621 7.16863687 16.9696595 31.0596255 84.4271468
8 0.01385104 1.37555554 2.73218955 6.69114732 12.9345801 49.9702314

%Pr(M)6 %Pr(M)7 %Pr(M)8 %Pr(M)9 %Pr(M)10 %Pr(M)11 %Pr(M)12


75 100 150 200 300 400 500
100 100 100 100 100 100 100
99.9999998 100 100 100 100 100 100
99.9441504 99.9954007 99.9954007 99.9954007 99.9954007 99.9954007 99.9954007
93.8545699 97.5748624 97.5744475 97.5744475 97.5744475 97.5744475 97.5744475
64.6130819 74.9702225 74.1150262 74.1150262 74.1150262 74.1150262 74.1150262
Probabilidad de ocurrencia
120
T=1
100 T=2
T=5
80
T=10
Probabilidad %

T=50
60
T=75
T=100
40
T=150
T=200
20
T=300

0 T=400
3.8 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.8 6.3 6.8 7.3 7.8 8.3 T=500
Magnitud (Mb)

Grafica 3: Probabilidad vs Magnitud

Probabilidad de ocurrencia
120

100

80
Probabilidad %

M=4
60
M=5
M=6
40 M=7

20

0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Tiempo (Años)

Grafica 4: Probabilidad vs tiempo en años


DISTRIBUCION VERTICAL PARA MEXICO 1978-
2017
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
-20

-40

-60
PROFUNDIDAD

-80

-100

-120

-140

-160

-180
TIEMPO (JULIANOS)

Grafica Nº 5: distribución temporal de la sismicidad, donde la profundidad se encuentra en función de los años.

DISTRIBUCION TEMPORAL PARA MEXICO 1978-


2017
8

6
MAGNITUD (MB)

0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
TIEMPO (JULIANOS)

Grafica Nº 6: Se muestra la distribución temporal de la sismicidad, donde la magnitud se encuentra en función de los años.