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Conclusions
Russia must decide for itself the role it will play in international
affairs, and the choices Russian leaders make will be greatly affected
by the domestic political and economic changes now occurring. The
need to define exactly what and who constitutes Russia as a nation will
obviously influence what will become the " national interest." What is
not so obvious is whether Yeltsin's and future governments will be able
to arrive at such a definition successfully and in the near future.
While Russia's central government officials may pursue foreign
policy initiatives that the West decries as neo-imperialist, it is
important to remember that Russia is no longer following an ideology
that is hostile to the West, and that the external environment is now
conducive to Russia's democratic transition.31 It will take time for both
the institutional foundation for foreign policy to be worked out and for
a national security doctrine to be formulated which Russia's many
political groups can agree on. In the meantime, it should be noted that
a lively debate on these issues is part of what constitutes a democratic
system, and the players in Moscow seem to have accepted most of the
rules of the game. Future conflicts, both within the Russian Federation
and with its neighbors, can be avoided by maintaining a serious and
accommodating approach to negotiations. Such an outlook by former
Soviet republics that have exhibited a very anti-Russian attitude would
also ameliorate strained relations between Russia and several of its
neighbors, as could Russia's avoidance of instances like the recent
suspension of troop withdrawals.
Finally, the West must recognize that Russia indeed has an
interest in what occurs in the " space" of the former Soviet Union, and
should use pressure only when Russia is unilaterally violating
international accords or the sovereignty of other states. The West
cannot coerce Russian leaders into following any particular foreign
policy line. The most it can do is influence this new member of the
international community in the desired direction. Yet the influence and
support of other nations is only part of the picture. Only Russia can
resolve the critical questions of " What is Russia?" and " Who is a
Russian?" and decide the country's future foreign policy course based
on a newly defined national interest. The arduous task of answering
these complex questions, while simultaneously implementing
extensive and enduring economic and political reforms, has only just
begun.
NOTES
1. The idea of the 'triple transition' Is discussed more fully In Daniel Yergin
and Thane Gustafson, Russia 2010, and What It Means for the World,
(New York: Random House, 1993). The chapter on foreign policy offers a
thoughtful and provocative discussion of the problems facing Russia's
foreign policy makers.
2. Andrei Kozyrev. " Russia: A Chance for Survival." Foreign Affairs 71
(Spring 1992). p. 8.
3. Bruce Porter. " A Country Instead of a Cause.' The Washington Quarterly
(Summer 1992). pp. 41-43; Michael Mandelbaum, " Coup de Grace: The
End of the Soviet Union," Foreign Affairs 71 (America and the World
1991/92). p. 171; and Paul Goble, " Russia and its Neighbors." Foreign
PolicyW (Spring 1993), pp. 79-80.
4. Quoted in The New York Times. 14 August 1993.
5. " Atlanticists" are those, like Kozyrev, who favor further cooperation with.
and more attention focused on, the West. " Eurasianists," many of whom
are Russian nationalists, advocate a look to the East and the South and a
promotion of Russian interests there. For more on this debate, see Sergei
Karaganov, Russia: the New Foreign Policy and Security Agenda: the
View from Moscow (London: Brasseys, 1992).
6. Kozyrev, op. cit.. p. 12; Nezavislmala gazeta. 29 April 1993, pp. 1.3.
7. Obviously, the most ardent Russian nationalists would include only
Orthodox, ethnic Russians under this policy; the definition becomes more
expansive the further one moves away from groups like " Pamiaf."
8. Nezavisimaia gazeta, Research Report 2. No. zvezda, 14 May 1993, p. 17
May 1993, p. 14. 18 March 1993. p. 2; RFE/RL (1 January 1993);
Krosnaia 3, reported in FBIS-SOV-93-093,
9. Nezavisimaia gazeta. 30 July 1993, p. 2; tzvestiya, 5 August 1993.
10. The general outlines of a military doctrine put forward by the Security
Council are discussed in an Interview with Secretary Lobov in Izvestiya. 4
November 1993, p.1.
11. Nezavisimaia gazeta, 29 April 1993. pp. 1. 3; Kozyrev. op. cit.
12. This section on MID is based on John Lough, " Defining Russia's
Relations with Neighboring States," RFE/RL Research Report 2, No. 20
(14 May 1993), pp 53-60; Dimitri Simes, " Reform Reaffirmed," Foreign
Policy 90 (Spring 1993). p. 45; Suzanne Crow, " Processes and Policies,"
RFE/RL Research Report 2. No. 20 (14 May 1993), pp. 47-52.
13. Izvestiya, 12 August 1993. The latest constitutional draft was published by
ITAR-TASS, 9 November 1993; the citations are from Article 83.
14. " Shokovala teraplia Andrela Kozyreva," Izvestiya. 15 December 1992. p.
6.
15. Jan Adams, " Legislature Reasserts Its Role In Russian Foreign Policy."
RFE/RL Research Report 2, No. 4 (22 January 1993). pp. 32-36.
16. Lough, op. cit., p. 60. As Ukraine's government continues Its anti-Russian
stance, moderates like Ambartsumov could become more aggressive about
the need for Russia to impose certain policies on Ukraine.
17. ITAR-TASS, op. cit., specifically Articles 80. 83. 86. 87 and 114.
18. Many regions have concluded economic agreements with foreign
governments. For example, Karelia and Finland, outlined In Moscow
ITAR-TASS. 0815 GMT, 15 June 1993. reported in FBIS-SOV-93-ог, 15
June 1993. p.7.
19. John Lough. " The Place of the Near Abroad in Russian Foreign Policy,"
RFE/RL Research Report 2, No. 11 (12 March 1993), pp. 21-29.; Crow,
op. cit.. p. 50: this despite the tact that Russia is not strong enough to
police Itself, let alone other states (Lough. " Defining Russia's Relations."
p. 68); Lough, " Defining Russia's Relations." p. 54; Izvestlya. A and 5
August 1993; Moscow ITAR-TASS World Service. 1102 GMT. 11 June
1993. reported in FBIS-SOV-93-112. 14 June 1993, p. 9; Lough, " The
Place of the Near Abroad," p. 21.
20. Nezavisimaia gazela. 18 March 1993, p. 1.
21. Moscow ITAR-TASS. 1044 SMT, 19 July 1993, reported in FBIS-SOV-
93-137. 20 July 1993, p. 8; Vera Tolz, " The Burden of the Imperial
Legacy in Russia," RFE/RL Research Report 2, No. 20 (14 May 1993). p.
42.
22. Bohdan Nahaylo, " The Massandra Summit and Ukraine." RFE/RL
Research Report 2, No. 37 (17 September 1993). Immediately after the
summit it was reported that Ukraine had agreed to " sell" Its nuclear
missiles and part of the Black Sea Fleet to Russia in order to write off its
debt to Russia. Ukrainian parliamentary leaders decried the agreement,
which has cost Kravchuk a great deal politically. The future of Massandra
is unclear.
23. Izvestiya, 17 June 1993, p. 3; Simes, " Reform Reaffirmed," p. 44;
Suzanne Crow, " Russia Debates Its National Interests," RFE/RL Research
Report 1, No. 28 (10 July 1992), pp. 43-46; Washington Post, 14 August
1993. p. A17; Nezavlsimaia gazeta. 30 July 1993; Krasnaia zvezda, 6 July
1993, pp. 1,3, reported in FBIS-SOV-93-130.9 July 1993, p. 10. For an in-
depth discussion of the Kaliningrad Issue, see Magdalene Koff and Heinz
Timmermann. " Kaliningrad: Russia's Future Gateway to Europe?"
RFE/RL Research Report 2, no. 36 (10 September 1993).
24. Kozyrev, op. cit.. p. 10.
25. The Economist. 30 October 1993. p. 57.
26. Moskovskle novosti, 15 August 1993.
27. Sovetskaia Rosslia, 20 May 1993, p. 5, reported in FBIS-SOV-93-097. 21
May 1993. p. 8. MID is even accused of " grovelling" before the West on
the Bosnian issue (.Sovetskaia Rossiia, 8 May 1993, p. 5. reported in
FBIS-SOV-93-089, 11 May 1993, p. 7); Krasnaia zvezda, 14 May 1993, p.
3, in FBIS-SOV-93-093, 17 May 1993, p. 14.
28. Moscow Ostankino Television First Channel Network, 1700 GMT. 7 July
1993, reported in FBIS-SOV-93-129, 8 July 1993, p. 14.
29. Moscow Mayak Radio Network in Russia, 0930 GMT, 14 May 1993,
reported In FBIS-SOV-93-093, 17 May 1993, p. 23.
30. Nezavisimaia gazeta. 29 April 1993, pp. 1, 3. On the recent Russian-
Chinese agreement on the exchange of technology, see The New York
Times. 10 November 1993, p. A15.
31. Kozyrev, op. cit., p. 8; Seweryn Bialer, " The Death of Soviet
Communism," Foreign Affairs 70 (Winter 1991/92), p. 175. For specifics
about what the West can and cannot do. see Goble, op. cit., and Yergin and
Gustafson, op. cit.