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What factors influence primary turnout in Minnesota’s gubernatorial elections and what
will the turnout be for both the Republican and Democratic parties this August? Both of these
questions are on minds of politicos as predictions mount in anticipation of the August 14, results.
The simple answer is that no one knows, but there are indications that the drivers of turnout in
gubernatorial primaries have little to do with state politics or races and instead reflect national
trends and moods in politics.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is true both for stock markets
and politics. Yet past performance provides insights into what might happen in 2018. The
attached table and chart look at Democrat and Republican Party primary turnout for the last six
gubernatorial elections. During this time there have been several changes in Minnesota election
law or politics that potentially affect turnout, thereby making it difficult to isolate anyone factor.
Consider some factors.