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169. <h1 class="story-body__h1">Los riesgos que enfrenta la economía mundial en
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172. <span class="byline__name">Cecilia Barría </span>
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362. </div>
363.
364. <div class="story-body__inner" property="articleBody">
365. <figure class="media-
landscape has-caption full-width lead">
366. <span class="image-and-copyright-container">
367.
368. <img class="js-image-replace" alt="Gente en la calle"
src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/00FF/production/_99655200_persona
s.jpg" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="660">
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376.
377. <figcaption class="media-caption">
378. <span class="off-screen">Image caption</span>
379. <span class="media-caption__text">
380. Uno de los principales riesgos es que el financiamiento se haga más
difícil.
381. </span>
382. </figcaption>
383.
384. </figure><p class="story-body__introduction">Los riesgos para cualquier
economía están siempre a la vuelta de la esquina. </p><div id="bbccom_mpu_3"
class="bbccom_slot mpu-ad" aria-hidden="true">
387. /**/
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390. bbcdotcom.adverts.slotAsync('mpu', [3]);
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394. </script>
395. </div>
396. </div><p>Algunos pueden ser más difíciles de anticipar que otros, como es el caso
de una guerra, el colapso repentino de los mercados financieros o un desastre natural de
grandes proporciones. </p><p>Otras veces, hay señales que alertan a los economistas de
potenciales amenazas y ello hace posible hacer previsiones a corto y medio plazo.
</p><div id="bbccom_mpu_1_2" class="bbccom_slot mpu-ad" aria-hidden="true">
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407. </div>
408. </div><p>De cara a 2018, son varios los organismos internacionales que han
elaborado listados de los riesgos que hay en el horizonte para la economía
mundial.</p><p>Pese a que se prevé una tasa de crecimiento global de 3,1% este año, hay
incógnitas que persisten y riesgos latentes.</p><ul class="story-body__unordered-list">
409. <li class="story-body__list-item"><a href="/mundo/noticias-42652710"
class="story-body__link">Las 6 economías que crecerán más y menos en América Latina
en 2018</a></li>
class="story-body__link">Cuáles fueron las 5 peores burbujas de la historia que
estremecieron la economía mundial (y por qué nos siguen dando terror)</a></li>
class="story-body__link">¿Qué países de América Latina se volvieron más ricos y pobres
en 2017? </a></li>
412. </ul>
413.
414. <div id="comp-pattern-library" class="distinct-component-group container-
parrot">
415.
416. <aside role="region" class="parrot" aria-label="recomendaciones">
417. <a class="off-screen parrot__jump-link" href="#skip-
recommendations">Saltar las recomendaciones</a>
418. <strong class="parrot__title">Quizás también te interese</strong>
419. <ul>
420. <li class="parrot-item">
421. <a class="parrot-item__link" href="/mundo/noticias-
44204832">Cómo logró California convertirse en la 5ª economía del mundo</a>
422. </li>
internacional-44584922">El multimillonario negocio detrás de la detención de inmigrantes
en Estados Unidos</a>
425. </li>
america-latina-44802850">"Centroamérica ha quedado dividida en dos": cómo la crisis en
Nicaragua afecta a Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador y Panamá de una forma
"sin precedentes"</a>
428. </li>
43702535">Cuál fue la trampa de tres amigos para hacerse millonarios con sus batidos de
fruta (y cómo sobrevivieron a la crisis financiera internacional)</a>
431. </li>
432. </ul>
433. <p class="off-screen" id="skip-recommendations" tabindex="-1">Fin de las
recomendaciones</p>
434. </aside>
435.
436.
437. </div>
438.
439. <p>Estos son algunos de
los riesgos que proyectan para 2018 expertos consultados por BBC Mundo que se dedican
a analizar la evolución de la economía mundial:</p><h2 class="story-
body__crosshead">Carlos Arteta, economista líder del Grupo de Perspectivas Globales de
Desarrollo del Banco Mundial (BM)</h2><figure class="media-landscape has-caption full-
width">
441.
442.
443. <img
src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/2427/production/_99655290_wallstre
et.jpg"
datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/2427/production/_99655290_wal
lstreet.jpg" class="responsive-image__img js-image-replace" alt="Wall Street"
width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624">
444.
445.
448.
449. </span>
450.
454. Podría haber una baja de los mercados internacionales tras una época
de ganancias y poca volatilidad.
455. </span>
456. </figcaption>
457.
458. </figure><ul class="story-body__unordered-list"><li class="story-body__list-
item">Endurecimiento abrupto de las condiciones internacionales de<strong>
financiamiento</strong>. Este riesgo podría materializarse si los mercados financieros
reevalúan la velocidad a la que los bancos centrales de las economías avanzadas
normalizarán sus políticas monetarias, por ejemplo, si la inflación en estas economías
aumenta más de lo previsto.</li></ul><ul class="story-body__unordered-list"><li
class="story-body__list-item">Rápido reajuste en los <strong>mercados
bursátiles</strong>. Este riesgo ha aumentado debido a los muy altos niveles registrados
en las bolsas de valores más importantes del mundo, así como a las bajísimas tasas de
interés a nivel mundial, condiciones que podrían cambiar abruptamente y generar tensión
financiera.</li></ul><ul class="story-body__unordered-list"><li class="story-body__list-
item">Incremento de las <strong>restricciones al comercio</strong>. Este riesgo ha
aumentado por las inclinaciones proteccionistas en algunas de las economías más
importantes, como Estados Unidos.</li></ul><ul class="story-body__unordered-list"><li
class="story-body__list-item">Aumento de la <strong>incertidumbre </strong>en materia
de política económica. Cambios drásticos en el manejo de la economía podrían afectar las
decisiones de inversión.</li></ul><ul class="story-body__unordered-list"><li class="story-
body__list-item">Aumento de las<strong> tensiones geopolíticas</strong>. Un
recrudecimiento de estas tensiones, por ejemplo, en la península coreana o en el Medio
Oriente, podría minar la confianza y perjudicar la actividad económica.</li></ul><h2
class="story-body__crosshead">José Juan Ruiz, economista jefe del Banco Interamericano
de Desarrollo (BID)</h2><figure class="media-landscape has-caption full-width">
460.
461.
462. <img
src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhEAAJAIAAAP///wAAACH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAAQAAk
AAAIKhI+py+0Po5yUFQA7"
datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/9D3F/production/_99655204_cen
tralbank.jpg" class="responsive-image__img responsive-image__img--loading js-image-
replace" alt="Edificio" width="976" height="549">
463.
464.
467.
468. </span>
469.
473. Hay riesgos geopolíticos, como la tensión con Corea del Norte.
474. </span>
475. </figcaption>
476.
item">
478. <strong>Riesgos geopolíticos</strong> y de estabilidad de las instituciones y de las
reglas globales. Por ejemplo, qué ocurrirá con la Organización Mundial del Comercio, el
NAFTA, o una escalada de tensiones entre Estados Unidos y Corea del Norte, o entre
Estados Unidos y China. No estamos en zona de burbuja, pero sí hay un aumento de
riesgos geopolíticos.</li></ul><ul class="story-body__unordered-list"><li class="story-
body__list-item">Caída en el crecimiento de la <strong>productividad</strong>, tanto en
los países desarrollados como emergentes. Me refiero a la productividad en el sentido de
la forma en la que combinamos las nuevas tecnologías, el capital y el trabajo. Hay un
crecimiento menor del que teníamos en el pasado. El mundo todavía no sabe cómo utilizar
las nuevas tecnologías en los sistemas productivos. Y el otro elemento que influye es el
envejecimiento de la población.</li></ul><ul class="story-body__unordered-list"><li
class="story-body__list-item">La <strong>sorpresa inflacionaria</strong>. Ahora hay un
consenso amplio en el mundo de que estamos en una etapa de inflaciones estructurales
bajas, con condiciones monetarias muy amables, con mercados exuberantes que han
creado riqueza financiera con poca volatilidad. Esto ha provocado una sincronización de la
recuperación. Ahora, si la inflación sube en Estados Unidos (que es lo que se espera),
habría alzas en la tasa de interés y cambiaría el escenario.</li></ul><ul class="story-
body__unordered-list"><li class="story-body__list-item">Aumento en los altos niveles de
<strong>endeudamiento</strong> del sector privado y de los países en muchas partes del
mundo. Eso implica que algunos de los recursos que se destinan a inversión o a
transferencias sociales, serán destinados a pagar el mayor costo de la deuda.</li></ul><ul
class="story-body__unordered-list"><li class="story-body__list-item">Hay un
<strong>dilema moral</strong>. Las empresas tienen que apostar al bien común y no
solamente a los dividendos de los accionistas. Esto no es un riesgo, pero plantea la
pregunta de cómo las empresas pueden tener legitimidad ante sociedades más cansadas
con el aumento de la desigualdad. Yo creo que este debate puede tener un efecto
importante.</li></ul><h2 class="story-body__crosshead">Alicia Bárcena, secretaria
ejecutiva de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL)</h2><figure
class="media-landscape has-caption full-width">
480.
481.
482. <img
datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/EB5F/production/_99655206_nin
o.jpg" class="responsive-image__img responsive-image__img--loading js-image-replace"
alt="Niño en su casa" width="976" height="549">
483.
484.
487.
488. </span>
489.
493. La desigualdad amenaza la sustentabilidad económica y social.
494. </span>
495. </figcaption>
496.
item">
498. <strong>Cambio climático</strong>. Este es el mayor desafío que estamos
enfrentando. El calentamiento global, los desastres naturales, la escasez de agua y la
contaminación podrían dejar a 122 millones de personas en la extrema pobreza,
adicionalmente a las que hoy están en esa situación.</li></ul><ul class="story-
body__unordered-list"><li class="story-body__list-item">Creciente<strong>
desigualdad</strong>. El aumento de la desigualdad de ingresos y la polarización social
son consecuencias adversas de la hiperglobalización, especialmente en el mundo
desarrollado. Hoy existen ocho personas que concentran una riqueza similar al 50% más
pobre de la población mundial. La desigualdad amenaza la sustentabilidad económica y
social del actual paradigma de desarrollo y sus costos amenazan el bienestar, la inversión y
la innovación. </li></ul><ul class="story-body__unordered-list"><li class="story-
body__list-item">Disminución de la <strong>confianza en la democracia</strong>. Una
cultura basada en privilegios transforma las diferencias en desigualdades. Estas tensiones
sociales, combinadas con la incertidumbre han debilitado la confianza pública en las
instituciones democráticas.</li></ul><ul class="story-body__unordered-list">
499. <li class="story-body__list-item">Crisis del <strong>multilateralismo</strong>. Los
largos y persistentes desequilibrios de cuenta corriente, junto a los cambios de
localización de empresas y el empeoramiento de las condiciones laborales, han llevado a
un resurgimiento del proteccionismo en muchos países. Esto, combinado con ineficientes
negociaciones comerciales, han debilitado el sistema multilateral internacional.</li>
500. <li class="story-body__list-item">Desigual impacto de la <strong>disrupción
tecnológica</strong>. Más del 40% de la humanidad todavía está desconectada, no
participa, ni tiene voz en la nueva economía digital. Así como las nuevas tecnologías
redefinen los productos y los mercados laborales, la desigual distribución y el consumo de
esas tecnologías, afectan el crecimiento y crean nuevas desigualdades.</li>
501. </ul><figure class="media-landscape has-caption full-width">
503.
504.
505. <img
datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/7247/production/_99655292_mu
ndoamarillo.jpg" class="responsive-image__img responsive-image__img--loading js-
image-replace" alt="Mundo" width="549" height="549">
506.
507.
510.
511. </span>
512.
516. La economía mundial podría crecer 3,1% este año.
517. </span>
518. </figcaption>
519.
520. </figure><p><i>Ahora puedes recibir notificaciones de BBC Mundo. Descarga
la nueva versión de nuestra app y actívalas para no perderte nuestro mejor
contenido.</i></p>
521. </div>
522. </div>
523. <div class="tags-container">
524. <h2 class="tags-title story-body__crosshead">Temas relacionados</h2>
525. <ul class="tags-list">
526. <li class="tags-list__tags" data-entityid="topic_link">
527. <a href="/mundo/topics/0b0bfd5a-81b8-43fa-91fc-
57f1fcd24487">Europa</a>
528. </li>
530. <a href="/mundo/topics/2f2db234-3c2d-40a4-b4ac-
eea661faadd0">Negocios</a>
531. </li>
533. <a href="/mundo/topics/392f5a37-da92-42b3-8ea5-
ea0c4fdbea1c">Comercio electrónico</a>
534. </li>
536. <a href="/mundo/topics/41d87885-664f-4d92-931e-
470b8fd7b16b">Emprendimientos</a>
537. </li>
539. <a href="/mundo/topics/82857f8e-8134-462a-bb32-
b7b14f4eab75">Estados Unidos</a>
540. </li>
542. <a href="/mundo/topics/ba90754a-9033-4e9c-990b-
d1139e5070a3">Asia</a>
543. </li>
545. <a href="/mundo/topics/ca170ae3-99c1-48db-9b67-
2866f85e7342">Economía</a>
546. </li>
548. <a href="/mundo/topics/cec5d136-f83d-4e00-a3be-
d22a7b89401f">Comercio</a>
549. </li>
551. <a href="/mundo/topics/cfb8bd8c-0638-4383-9dec-
8d1703c8b4b8">Banca</a>
552. </li>
554. <a href="/mundo/topics/d96b284b-8461-41b5-b96e-
33b6297565f5">Banco Mundial</a>
555. </li>
557. <a href="/mundo/topics/e0d04166-b92f-468e-9e68-
d5f9330e6ae7">América Latina</a>
558. </li>
559. </ul>
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619. </a>
620. </div>
621. <div class="story-more">
622. <div class="group story-alsos more-on-this-story"> <div
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wrapper"> <div class="unit__body"> <div class="unit__header"> <div class="unit__title">
<span class="cta"> Las 6 economías que crecerán más y menos en América Latina en 2018
</span> </div> <div class="unit__meta"> <div class="date date--v1" data-
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</span> </div> <div class="unit__meta"> <div class="date date--v1" data-
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623.
624. </div>
625. <div class="column--secondary">
626. <div id="comp-top-stories-promo"
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630. <p class="top-stories-promo-story__summary ">Tenía 8 años cuando
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me tratan como si lo fuera". Esta es su historia.</p>
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632. </a>
634. <strong class="top-stories-promo-story__title">Los nuevos detalles de las 6
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636. </a>
638. <strong class="top-stories-promo-story__title">Un menor migrante sin
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