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TO: Interested Parties

FR: Nathan Klein, Olive Tree Strategies
DT: July 17, 2018
RE: Justin Fareed for Congress, CA CD24 Poll Synopsis & Path To Victory

On behalf of Justin Fareed for Congress, Olive Tree Strategies is pleased to present the key
findings of its recent California Congressional District 24 survey.

The survey was conducted July 12-15, 2018 of a representative sample of 404 likely general
election voters, including 49% reached by cell phones, in California’s 24th Congressional District
and is weighted to represent the projected demographics of the 2018 electorate. The survey has a
margin of error of ±4.9% at a 95% level of confidence. Trend data is from our previous survey,
conducted March 2-5, 2018.

Key Findings:
Justin is strongly positioned to win in California’s 24th. After the primary his favorable ratings
have increased significantly and are now among the best, if not the best, among Republican
challengers in the nation. The ballot remains within the margin of error, and Salud Carbajal’s
vulnerability becomes evident in the messaging.

1. Justin Fareed’s name ID is strong. He has grown from the already strong net positive of
34% Favorable / 25% Unfavorable (+9) before the primary to now 44% Favorable / 28%
Unfavorable (+16) today. This double-digit, ten-point increase in his favorable provides
real-world proof of his appeal to voters and the effectiveness of his campaign
communication and paid media strategy during the primary.

2. Carbajal, by contrast, has not seen his favorable move at all. Carbajal’s name ID is 44%
Favorable / 36% Unfavorable, before the primary he was 44% Fav / 34% Unfav. Despite
his campaigning, he seems to have maxed-out the potential goodwill of voters here.

3. The ballot is statistically tied! The ballot is 46% Fareed/47% Carbajal, a neck-and-neck
race. And, Carbajal is stuck well below 50%, a bad place for an incumbent. Also of note,
Fareed’s appeal allows him to peel off some DEM votes (13%), but GOP votes are locked
up (only 6% for Salud). Partisan intensity was greatly helped by the primary. As an
incumbent he has failed to solidify a winning base in this district.

4. Unlike the last time he ran for Congress, Salud Carbajal now has a federal voting
record, and he has NOT been in line with the district’s priorities. Of the fifteen
messages critical of Salud that were tested, fourteen broach the critical 40% “Much Less
Likely” metric for use in a campaign.

5. After informing voters about Salud’s failure to protect the district’s future, the ballot goes
from -1 to +13. To have such a high ceiling for a challenger is rare, and is a key indicator
that Salud is vulnerable in the fall.

Bottom Line:
Justin is already favorably defined in district, once Salud’s record is made common knowledge
Justin becomes the clear favorite to win in November.

OLIVETREESTRATEGIES.COM \\ WASHINGTON, DC