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To: Interested Parties

From: GBA Strategies


Date: July 26, 2018

O’Connor’s Momentum Continues in OH-12 Special; Race Now a Toss-up

Danny O’Connor continues to narrow the gap against Troy Balderson in the special
election for Ohio’s 12th Congressional District. With less than two weeks to go, O’Connor now
trails by just two points—continuing a trend that has brought this race to a dead heat since paid
communications began last month.

In addition, the “enthusiasm gap” that marked previous polling here continues to favor
Democrats. Voters who express any real interest in voting give O’Connor the edge, providing
him with a boost in the face of millions of dollars of negative ads from DC special interests.

• O’Connor now only trails Balderson by two points. O’Connor has narrowed the race to a
45 – 48 percent margin after trailing by five points just two weeks earlier and seven
points in June.1 Balderson has been stuck at 48 percent this entire campaign, despite
millions of dollars attacking O’Connor in mail and television for well over a month.

O’Connor’s two-point deficit is closer than the deficit of a generic Congressional


Democrat, who trails a generic Congressional Republican 46 – 50 percent. It also far
outpaces the 11-point Republican self-identification advantage among likely voters here.

O’Connor Balderson Manchik Net difference


July 23-25 45 48 2 -22
July 10-133 43 48 5 -5
June 9-124 41 48 4 -7

• Enthusiasm gap continues to spell trouble for Republicans. Among people who say
they are ‘almost certain’ to vote, Balderson’s lead evaporates entirely. O’Connor leads
among these voters by a 51- 46 percent margin.

And on a scale that asks voters to report their own ‘interest in voting’ from 0 to 10, those
who report themselves as between a 6-10 (86 percent of the total electorate) also give the
lead to O’Connor. This group favored Balderson by four points just a few weeks earlier.
As we noted last time, Balderson’s extremely slim edge in the overall race is built
entirely on people who tell us they are less motivated to turn out.

July 23 - 25 July 10-13


Total 45 – 48 43 – 48
‘Almost certain’ 51 – 46 49 – 46
6+/10 voting interest 49 – 47 45 – 49

1701 K Street NW Suite 600, Washington, DC 20006 | Tel: 202-621-1411 | Fax: 202-785-5305 gbastrategies.com
1
Survey of 500 likely special election voters in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District was
conducted by professional interviews between July 23-25, 2018. A random sample of likely
voters was pulled from a voter file. Respondents were interviewed by live dialers on land lines
and cell phones. Results carry a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points at the 95 percent
confidence interval.
2
Rounding accounts for the discrepancy in difference figures.
3
Survey of 600 likely special election voters in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District was
conducted by professional interviews between July 10-13, 2018. Results carry a margin of error
of +/- 4.0 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval.
4
Survey of 500 likely special election voters in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District was
conducted by professional interviews between June 9-12, 2018. Results carry a margin of error
of +/- 4.4 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval.

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