Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 2
To: From: GBA Strategies Date: Interested Parties July 26, 2018 O’Connor’s Momentum Continues in OH-12

To:

From: GBA Strategies

Date:

Interested Parties

July 26, 2018

O’Connor’s Momentum Continues in OH-12 Special; Race Now a Toss-up

Danny O’Connor continues to narrow the gap against Troy Balderson in the special election for Ohio’s 12 th Congressional District. With less than two weeks to go, O’Connor now trails by just two points—continuing a trend that has brought this race to a dead heat since paid communications began last month.

In addition, the “enthusiasm gap” that marked previous polling here continues to favor Democrats. Voters who express any real interest in voting give O’Connor the edge, providing him with a boost in the face of millions of dollars of negative ads from DC special interests.

O’Connor now only trails Balderson by two points. O’Connor has narrowed the race to a 45 – 48 percent margin after trailing by five points just two weeks earlier and seven points in June. 1 Balderson has been stuck at 48 percent this entire campaign, despite millions of dollars attacking O’Connor in mail and television for well over a month.

O’Connor’s two-point deficit is closer than the deficit of a generic Congressional Democrat, who trails a generic Congressional Republican 46 – 50 percent. It also far outpaces the 11-point Republican self-identification advantage among likely voters here.

 

O’Connor

Balderson

Manchik

Net difference

July 23-25

45

48

2

-2 2

July 10-13 3

43

48

5

-5

June 9-12 4

41

48

4

-7

Enthusiasm gap continues to spell trouble for Republicans. Among people who say they are ‘almost certain’ to vote, Balderson’s lead evaporates entirely. O’Connor leads among these voters by a 51- 46 percent margin.

And on a scale that asks voters to report their own ‘interest in voting’ from 0 to 10, those who report themselves as between a 6-10 (86 percent of the total electorate) also give the lead to O’Connor. This group favored Balderson by four points just a few weeks earlier. As we noted last time, Balderson’s extremely slim edge in the overall race is built entirely on people who tell us they are less motivated to turn out.

 

July 23 - 25

July 10-13

Total

45

– 48

43

– 48

‘Almost certain’

51

– 46

49

– 46

6+/10 voting interest

49

– 47

45

– 49

1701 K Street NW Suite 600, Washington, DC 20006

|

Tel: 202-621-1411

|

Fax: 202-785-5305

gbastrategies.com

1 Survey of 500 likely special election voters in Ohio’s 12 t h Congressional District

1 Survey of 500 likely special election voters in Ohio’s 12 th Congressional District was conducted by professional interviews between July 23-25, 2018. A random sample of likely voters was pulled from a voter file. Respondents were interviewed by live dialers on land lines and cell phones. Results carry a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval.

2 Rounding accounts for the discrepancy in difference figures.

3 Survey of 600 likely special election voters in Ohio’s 12 th Congressional District was conducted by professional interviews between July 10-13, 2018. Results carry a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval.

4 Survey of 500 likely special election voters in Ohio’s 12 th Congressional District was conducted by professional interviews between June 9-12, 2018. Results carry a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval.

2