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The automobile industry currently contributes 22% of the manufacturing GDP and 7% of the country’s
GDP. The Indian auto industry has left behind many other auto manufacturers with an annual production
of 23.96 million vehicles in the financial year 2015 and is going to be the third largest in the world by
2020. With strong backward and forward linkages, the automobile sector has been identified as one of
the sunrise industries in the manufacturing sector. Post 2000, important policies and programs like auto
policy 2002 which allowed 100% FDI, Automotive Mission Plan 2006-2016, NATRIP, NEMMP and
the very recent launch of “Make in India” program have changed the growth dynamics of the automobile
sector. Therefore, the paper attempts to study the growth trends of automobile industry post 2000 in terms
of CAGR, and percentage change over the years for three parameters, namely, production, sales and
exports. The findings of the study clearly suggest an upward trend in growth during 2001 to 2014 in the
two-wheeler and passenger vehicle segment in the Indian automobile industry.
Introduction
The automobile industry played a significant role in the economic development of nations—
witnessed in all major developed countries—USA, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, South
Korea and China. In an emerging economy like India, the manufacturing sector is expected to
absorb a much larger workforce, relieving agriculture of the excessive burden and also
contribute more to the national GDP. The automobile industry is one of the largest
manufacturing industries in terms of revenue and is considered a bellwether of both consumer
demand and the health of the overall economy. The auto industry of India has been recording
tremendous growth over the years and has emerged as a major contributor to India’s GDP.
This dynamic industry currently accounts for almost 7% of our GDP and employs about 30
mn people both directly and indirectly (SIAM Statistical Profile 2014-15). In fact, one of the
major motives of the “Make in India” program is to generate more employment. India has
become one of the most attractive destinations for foreign investments in the auto sector
after the Make in India announcements. Automotive Mission Plan 2016-2026 aims at
propelling Indian auto industry as the engine of the Make in India program. The Indian auto
industry is set to become the third largest industry in the world with an annual production of
23.37 million vehicles in the Financial Year 2015 and is going to be the third largest in the
world by 2020. Demographically and economically, India’s automotive industry is well-poised
for growth, servicing both domestic and global markets. A predicted increase in India’s
working-age population, rising prosperity, easier access to finance and increasing affordability
* Senior Lecturer, Department of Accountancy, HL Institute of Commerce, Amrut Mody School of
Management, Ahmedabad University, Prin. SV Desai Road, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad-380009, India.
E-mail: vibha.tripathi@ahduni.edu.in
* * Professor, 46, Devashish Park, Kisan Lane, College Road, Nadiad-387001, Kheda, Gujarat, India; and is the
corresponding author. E-mail: raokalpeshb@gmail.com
Particulars 2014-15
Production 2,33,66,246
Domestic Sales 1,97,52,580
Exports 35,73,806
Installed Capacity (in mn nos.) 7.19 (4 wheelers)
24.30 (2 and 3 wheelers)
0.54 (Engines)
Gross Turnover (mn) 3,593,446.07
R&D Expenditure (mn) 61,710.62
Note: Tables 1, 2 and 4 are compiled from OICA, SIAM, IBEF, KPMG Auto Survey Reports,
Forbes magazine and ACMA presentation.
9% 7%
a Drive Transmission
and Steering Parts
f g 19% b Suspension and
12% Braking Parts
e a
c Equipments
d Engine Parts
b e Body and Chasis
d
c 12% f Electric Parts
g Others
31% 10%
Just after the launch of Make in India program, the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into
the automobile industry has seen a 164% growth, in the seven-month period from September
25, 2014. Foreign investment raised to $2,189.15 mn (October 2014-April 2015) from $830.69
mn (October 2013-April 2014) in the industry (Source: 17 July 2015, 12:11 AM IST ET
Auto news). The FDI in auto sector has grown by 12.5 times since 2006. See Figure 2 for the
FDI investments in India.
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0 1.5 1.5
In $ mn
1.3 0.9
1.5 1.2 1.2
1.0 0.2 0.6
0.5
0
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Note: Individual year-wise data of FDI in the automobile sector is not available before 2006-07.
Source: DIPP
Passenger Vehicles
The passenger vehicles in India include the passenger cars, utility vehicles and motor
vehicles. In the year 2000, the world ranking of passenger vehicles was 15th (OICA report),
but today the global ranking of passenger vehicles is 6th. The sluggish performance of
passenger car industry till the early 1980s was due to the policy regimes and strict control
in the passenger segment. Due to the oil crisis of 1973, the automobile industry was divided
into luxurious and non-luxurious segments. Policy changes after the 1980s brought this
segment parallel to other segments (Narayana, 1989). The policy changes and the removal
of restrictions saw entry of new manufacturers which led to sharp increase in production
during the last decade. Today if we see the production trend segment-wise, passenger cars
Two-Wheelers
The Two-Wheelers (2W) in India include scooters, mopeds and motorcycles. Irrespective
of the policy regime, two-wheeler segment has dominated the market since its inception.
Two-wheelers have emerged as the symbol of affordability to Indian households. India’s
demographic advantage, moderate 2W penetration levels and shrinking of replacement
cycle are the factors that have combined to propel the industry’s volumes over the last 15
years from nearly 4 million units in 2001 to 1,84,99,970 units in 2014-15. According to
ICRA report, these growth drivers are likely to remain relevant over next few years and
continue to provide impetus to the industry’s volumes. The Indian 2W industry is expected
to grow at a CAGR of 8-10% during FY15-20. Currently, the sale of Electric Two-Wheelers
(E2W) is merely 0.5% of the total sales. But it is pegged to grow at a CAGR of 50% to 3.5
million units by 2020. Achieving this potential can result in liquid fuel savings of 1.1-1.3
million tons annually by 2020 which translates to crude oil savings of about $1200-1300
mn annually by 2020 (KPMG Report).
25.29
Two-Wheelers 11.41
11.43
26.84
Passenger Vehicles 10.41
12.86
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
2001-02 6,69,719 4.49 42,71,327 13.64 6,90,560 – 36,34,378 – 53,165 96.09 1,04,183 –6.26
2002-03 7,23,330 8.00 50,76,221 18.84 6,75,116 –2.24 42,03,725 15.67 72,005 35.44 1,79,682 72.47
2003-04 9,89,560 36.81 56,22,741 10.77 7,07,198 4.75 48,12,126 14.47 1,29,291 79.56 2,65,052 47.51
2004-05 12,09,654 22.24 65,26,547 16.07 9,02,096 27.56 53,64,249 11.47 1,66,413 28.71 3,66,724 38.36
2005-06 13,09,300 8.24 76,08,697 16.58 10,61,290 17.65 62,08,860 15.75 1,75,752 5.61 5,13,169 39.93
2006-07 15,45,223 18.02 84,66,666 11.28 11,43,076 7.71 70,52,391 13.59 1,98,452 12.92 6,19,644 20.75
2007-08 17,77,583 15.04 80,26,681 –5.20 13,79,979 20.73 78,72,334 11.63 2,18,401 10.05 8,19,713 32.29
2008-09 18,38,593 3.43 84,19,792 4.90 15,49,882 12.31 72,49,278 –7.91 3,35,729 53.72 10,04,174 22.50
2009-10 23,57,411 28.22 105,12,903 24.86 15,52,703 0.18 74,37,619 2.60 4,46,145 32.89 11,40,058 13.53
2010-11 29,87,296 26.72 133,76,451 27.24 19,51,333 25.67 93,70,951 25.99 4,44,326 –0.41 15,31,619 34.35
2011-12 31,46,069 5.31 154,27,532 15.33 25,20,421 29.16 117,90,305 25.82 5,08,783 14.51 19,75,111 28.96
2012-13 32,33,561 2.78 157,21180 1.90 26,29,839 4.34 134,09,150 13.73 5,59,414 9.95 19,56,378 –0.95
2013-14 30,87,973 –4.50 168,83,049 7.39 26,65,015 1.34 137,97,185 2.89 5,96,142 6.57 20,84,000 6.52
Source: Author’s Compilation from SIAM statistical profile 2001-02,2010-11,2014-15 SIAM Statistics
2,50,00,000 30
2,00,00,000 CAGR 25
12.30% 20
% Change
1,50,00,000
In Numbers
15
1,00,00,000 10
5
50,00,000 0
0 –5
20 4
1
20 5
20 9
20 3
20 1
8
2
2
20 7
20 6
20 0
-0
-0
-0
20 3
-0
-0
-1
4
-0
-1
-0
-0
-0
-1
-1
-1
03
00
04
08
02
10
07
11
01
06
05
09
12
13
20
20
20
20
20
Year
180,00,000
160,00,000
140,00,000
120,00,000
In Numbers
100,00,000
80,00,000
60,00,000
40,00,000
20,00,000
0
20 13
20 6
4
20 2
20 1
20 8
20 10
20 1
20 07
20 05
20 4
20 2
20 3
-0
-1
20 9
-1
-0
-0
-1
-0
-0
-0
-
-0
-
-
-
12
05
13
11
00
07
09
10
06
04
03
01
02
08
20
Year
160,00,000
140,00,000
120,00,000
In Numbers
100,00,000
80,00,000
60,00,000
40,00,000
20,00,000
0
20 1
20 11
20 -07
20 2
20 3
20 03
20 05
20 -09
20 2
20 8
20 4
20 0
20 06
4
-0
-1
-1
-0
-0
-0
-1
-1
-
-
-
00
10
06
11
12
02
04
08
01
07
03
09
05
13
20
Year
Passenger Vehicles Two-Wheelers
25,00,000
20,00,000
In Numbers
15,00,000
10,00,000
5,00,000
0
–5,00,000
20 8
20 13
20 09
20 01
20 2
20 2
20 0
20 3
20 1
20 07
20 04
20 06
20 05
4
-0
-0
-1
-1
-0
-1
-1
-
-
-
-
07
12
08
-
-
00
-
01
11
09
02
10
06
03
05
04
13
20
Year
Two-Wheelers Passenger Vehicles
References
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Online Citations
1. ACMA-Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India – www.acma.in
2. BMI-Business Monitor International – www.bmiresearch.com
Reference # 33J-2016-09-03-01