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Conducting

Marketing
Research and
Forecasting
Demand

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Outline: Conducting Marketing
Research and Forecasting
Demand
1. Defining Marketing Research
2. Developing the research plan
Metrics for measuring good marketing
3.

productivity
Assessing ROI of marketing
4.

expenditures
5. Measuring and Forecasting Demand
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Marketing research is…
important because it…
Why?
Can lead to the success of a brand or a

product.
How?
By producing insight into the customer’s

attitudes and buying behavior

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Marketing Research is the…

Systematic design Collection Analysis


Reporting of
data and
findings
relevant to a specific marketing situation facing the company.

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Marketing Research Process
involves…

1.Defining the
problem 2.Developing the 3.Collecting 4.Analyzing
& objectives research plan information the information

5.Presenting the findings


6.Making the decision

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Developing the Research Plan
Data Sources
1.

Research instruments
2.

Research approach
3.

Sampling plan
4.

Contact methods
5.

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Developing the Research Plan
Researchers can gather:

Primary Data
–Data freshly gathered for a specific purpose or for a
specific research project
Secondary Data
– Collected for another purpose and
already exist somewhere

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Developing the Research Plan
Marketing Research can be approached in many ways:

Observation Focused Group Survey Research

Behavioral Data Experimentation

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Developing
The the Research
following research Plan
instruments are used
to collect data:

Questionnaires

Qualitative Measures

Technological Devices

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Step 2:
Some popular Qualitative Research approaches are…
Developing the Research Plan

Word association Projective techniques

Brand Personification Visualization

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Developing the Research
Sampling Plan decisions:
Plan
1)Sampling plan unit: Who should we survey?

2)Sample size: How many people should we


survey

3)Sampling procedure: How should we choose the respondents?

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Step 2:
Developing
Probability and Nonthe Research
probability Samples:Plan
Probability Sample
1)Simple random sample
2)Stratified random sample

3)Cluster Sample

Non probability Sample


1)Convenience sample
2)Judgment sample

3)Quota sample

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Developing the Research Plan
Contact Methods:

Telephone Interview Personal Interview

Online Interview Mail Questionnaire

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Measuring Marketing
Productivity
-Marketing
External
Metrics

Awareness Market share Relative price Consumer


Satisfaction
& Loyalty

Number of Distribution Total number of customers


complaints

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Marketing Dashboards to
improve effectiveness and
efficiency

Customer Metrics Unit Metrics Cash-flow Brand

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Forecasting Demand and
Measurement
Purpose:
– Identify market opportunities
How:
Measure and forecast size, growth

and profit potential of market opportunities

Who:
Marketers are responsible for preparing sales forecast

which are based on estimates of demand.

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Major Concepts in Demand
Measurement
1. Market Demand

1. Company Demand


Demand function

Sales forecast

Potential

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The Measures of Market
Demand
Ways to break down the market:
1.Potential Market

1. Available Market

1. Target Market

1. Penetrated market

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Market Forecast and Market
Potential
Market Forecast
Market demand corresponding to the level of Industry

marketing expenditure.

Market Potential

Is the limit approached by the market demand as an
industry marketing expenditures approach infinity for a
given marketing environment.

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Market Demand and Company
Demand
Market Demand

total volume that would be bought ….

A defined Marketing Program

by a defined in a defined in a defined in a defined


customer group geographical area time period marketing
environment

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Estimating Current Demand

Marketing executives would like to


estimate..
1. Total Market Potential

1. Area Market Potential

1. Total Industry Sales and Market share

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Estimating Current Demand

Total Market Potential is the

Marketing effort and environment

during a given
maximum available to all the
period
amount of sales firms in an
industry

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Estimating Current Demand

Area Market Potential


Estimating market potential of
different
Marketing effort and environment

during a given
maximum period
in an area (city, state or nation)
amount of sales

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Estimating Current Demand

The 2 Major Methods of assessing area


market potential are…
1. Market-Build-up Method
Identify all the potential buyers in

each market and estimate their potential


purchases

2. Multiple-Factor Index Method


-assigning weights to different factors (income,
sales, population, buying power)

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Estimating Current Demand

Industry Sales and Marketing Shares



identifying competitors and estimating their sales


Derive data from: industry trade association

Buy reports from marketing research (E.g. Nielsen)

Industry Data, Competitors Data

Over-all or Brand by Brand

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Estimating Future Demand

All forecasts are built on one of the


three information bases:
What people say. (Survey)
1.

What people do (Test Market)


1.

What people have done. (Buying History)


1.

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Estimating Future Demand

Survey of Buying Intentions


Forecasting
Is the art of anticipating what buyers are likely to do

under a given set of conditions.


Do you intend to buy a car in the next 6 months?
Purchase probability scale
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00
No Chance Slight Fair Good High Certain
Possibility Possibility Possibility Possibility

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Estimating Future Demand

Composite of Sales Force Opinion


Sales representatives

Expert Opinion
dealers, distributors, suppliers, marketing consultants

and trade associations


Past-sales Analysis
Time series analysis, Exponential smoothing, Statistical

demand analysis (causal factors), Econometric Analysis


Market-Test Method

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Summary:

1.Defining the
problem
& objectives

Sample plan, Sources, Contact Methods, Instruments

2.Developing the
research plan

3.Collecting
information Sales Force, Experts, History and Market Sales
Market and company Demand

4.Analyzing
Total and Area Market Potential, industry sales & the information
market share

5.Presenting the findings


Customer is happy 6.Making the decision
The brand is profitable
Employees are satisfied

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