MODELLING COASTAL EROSION

MSc Kotinas Vasileios, Phd Candidate, University of Athens

v.kotinas@geol.uoa.gr
Miltiadis Polidorou, PhD Candidate, University of Athens
 INTRODUCTION

 Around 41% of Europe’s population live near the

coast (Collet & Engelbert, 2013)
 Determining the physical response of the
coastline to sea-level rise is one of the most
important problems in coastal geology today
 Recent estimates of future sea-level rise based on
climate model output (IPCC,2013) suggest an
increase of the rate of sea level rise
 The prediction of future coastal evolution is not
straightforward. Although a quantitative
predictive approach is not available, the relative
vulnerability of different coastal environments to
sea-level rise may be quantified at a regional to
national scale using basic information Global Mean sea level rise (IPCC,2013)
 CVI

 The Coastal Vulnerability Index

is a relatively simple and
functional method to estimate
the vulnerability to erosion of
any coastal zone in relation to
future sea level rise.
 It combines the sensitivity of
the coastal zone to changes,
with the ability of the coastal
system to adapt to the new
conditions.
 By ranking the vulnerability of
the coastal zone we identify
the areas that are
comparatively more
vulnerable to sea-level
changes.
 HISTORICAL EVOLUTION
 The Coastal Vulnerability Index
(CVI) was developed by Gornitz et
al. (1990). The parameters that
were considered were: relief, rock
type, landform, vertical (tectonic)
movement, shoreline
displacement, tidal range and
wave height.
 The CVI was modified later by
Gornitz et al (1994) to include
seven physical land/marine
variables and six climatological
variables
 Many modifications were made to
the CVI. For example, Thieler and
Hammer Klose in 1999 reversed the
ranking of tidal range.
• The CVI was used by the United
States Geological Survey (USGS) to
assess the vulnerability of coastal
area, throughout the United States
(Thieler, 2000; Thieler and Hammer-
Klose, 1999, 2000)
• The problem with the CVI approach
as proposed by Gornitz et al. and
adopted by the USGS is its non-
consideration of socio-economic
data.
• Boruf et al. (2005) combined the
Social Vulnerability Index with the
CVI to form the Coastal Social
Vulnerability Index (CSoVI)
 CALCULATION

Table : Various modifications of CVI

Geometric average (a ∗ b ∗ c ∗ d ∗ e ∗ f)
CVI =
6
Modified Geometric CVI
average
1 1
a∗b∗c∗ ∗ d ∗ ( ∗ (e + f)
2 2
= The geometric average is quite sensitive to small
4
Average sum of squares changes in individual ranking factors but the square root
a2 + b2 + c 2 + d + e2 + f 2
CVI =
6 is used to dampen the extreme range (Gornirtz et al,
Modified Geometric a∗b∗c∗d∗e∗f
CVI = 1990).
average 52
Sum of multiplications CVI
= 4∗a+4∗b+4∗c+2∗d+2
∗ (e + f)
Square root of
Geometric average (a ∗ b ∗ c ∗ d ∗ e ∗ f)
CVI =
6
 Original CVI variables (Gornitz et al, 1990)

Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very High

Variable 1 2 3 4 5
Relief (m) ≥30.1 20.1-30.0 10.1-20.0 5.1-10.0 0-5.0
Rock Type Plutonic, Low grade Most sedimentary Coarse and poorly Fine unconsolidated
Volcanic, metamorphics, rocks sorted sediments, Volcanic
High-medium grade Sandstone and unconsolidated ash
metamorphics conglomerate sediments
Landform Rocky,Cliffed Medium Cliffs, Low cliffs, Glacial Beaches(Pebbles), Barrier beaches
coasts, Fiords,Fiards Indented coasts drift, Salt marsh, Estuary, Laggoon, (sand),
Coral reefs, Alluvial Plains Mudflats,
Mangrove Deltas
Vertical movement ≤ -1.1 -1.0 - 0.99 1.0 – 2.0 2.1 - 4.0 ≥ 4.1
(mm/yr)
Shoreline ≥ 2.1 Accretion 1.0 – 2.0 -1.0 - +1.0 Stable -1.1 - -2.0 ≤ -2.0 Erosion
displacement
(m/yr)
Tidal Range (m) ≤0.99 Microtidal 1.0 – 1.9 2.0 – 4.0 Mesotidal 4.1-6.0 ≥ 6.1 Macrotidal

Wave height max 0-2.9 3.0-4.9 5.0-5.9 6.0-6.9 ≥ 7.0

(m)
 CVI VARIABLES (GORNITZ ET AL,1994)
CVI Very low Low Moderate High Very High
Variables 1 2 3 4 5
Elevation ≥ 30.0 20.1 – 30.0 10.1 – 20.0 5.1 – 10.0 0 – 5.0
Geology Plutonic Low grade metamorphics Most sedimentary rocks Coarse, poorly sorted Fine unconsolidated sediments
Volcanic Sandstones and unconsolidated sediments Volcanic ash
High-medium grade Conglomerates
metamorphics
Geomorphology Rocky, cliffed coasts, Medium Cliffs, indented Low cliffs, glacial drift, Cobble beaches, Estuary, Barrier beaches, Sand beaches,
Fiords, Fiards coasts alluvial plains Lagoon Salt marsh, Mud flats, Deltas,
Mangrove, Coral reefs

RSL change (mm/yr) <-1.0 -1.0 to 0.9 1.0 to 2.0 2.1 to 4.0 >4.0
Mean Shoreline displacement (m/year) >2.0 1.1 to 2.0 -1.0 to +1.0 -1.1 to -2.0 <-2.0
Accretion Erosion
Mean Tide range(m) <1.0 1.0 to 1.9 2.0 – 4.0 4.1 to 6.0 >6.0
Maximum Significant Wave 0.0 to 2.9 3.0 to 4.9 5.0 to 5.9 6.0 to 6.9 >6.9

Height (m)
Annual Tropical storm prob. (%) 0-8.0 8.1-12.0 12.1-16.0 16.1-20.0 >20.1

Annual hurricane prob. (%) 0-4.0 4.1-8.0 8.1-12.0 12.1-16.0 > 16.0

Hurricane frequency intensity index (%) 0-20 21-40 41-80 81-120 >121

Mean forward velocity (m/sec) >15 15.0-12.0 12.1-9.0 9.1-6.0 <6.0

Annual mean no. extra-tropical 0-10.0 10.1-20.0 20.1-30.0 30.1-40.0 >40.1

cyclones
Mean hurricane surge (m) 0-2.0 2.1-4.0 4.1-6.0 6.1-7.0 >7.0
 STYDY AREA

 Coastal zone in NE Attica at the Gulf of

Marathon
 7.7 km length
 The balance of the sediments that are
transferred to the area is affected by a
Dam that is located 8 km west of
Marathon
 Old and stabilized dunes and
beachrocks are observed along the
coast
 The area is characterized by a rapid and
without rural planning expansion of
urban activities (Xanthakis et al, 2007)
 Population of the wider area : 34. 000,
and in the summer much greater.
For the study area the CVI of Thieler & Hamar-Klose was used

(𝐚 ∗ 𝐛 ∗ 𝐜 ∗ 𝐝 ∗ 𝐞 ∗ 𝐟)
𝐂𝐕𝐈 =
𝟔

Where:
a: geomorphology
b: coastal slope
c: rate of relative sea-level rise
d: rate of shoreline erosion/ accretion
e: mean tide range
f: mean significant wave height
 Modified CVI (Thieler & Hammar -Klose,1999)
The Coastal Vulnerability CVI Very low Low Moderate High Very High
Index (CVI) that will be Variables 1 2 3 4 5
used is the one proposed Geomorphology Rocky, Medium Low cliffs, glacial drift, Cobble Barrier beaches,
in 1999 by Thieler and cliffed Cliffs, alluvial plains beaches, Sand beaches,

Hammar-Klose. coasts, indented Estuary, Salt marsh, Mud

Fiords, Fiards coasts Lagoon flats, Deltas,
It has six ranked from 1
Mangrove, Coral
to 5 according to the reefs

Table Coastal slope (%) >11.5 11.5-5.5 5.5-3.5 3.5-2.2 <2.2

Relative sea level <1,8 1.8 – 2.5 2.5 – 3.0 3.0 – 3.4 >3.4
change (mm/yr)
Shoreline erosion/ >2.0 1.0-2.0 -1.0-+1.0 -1.1- -2.0 <-2.0
accretion(m/yr)

Mean Tide >6.0 4.1 – 6.0 2.0 – 4.0 1.0 – 1.9 <1.0
range(m)
Mean Wave <0.55 0.55 – 0.85 0.85 – 1.05 1.05 – 1.25 >1.25

Height (m)
WORKFLOW – DATA NEEDED

GIS Layers needed:

A.Basic:
• Contours (Topographic Map, 1:5000)
• Shoreline
• Geomorphology

B. Shoreline Analysis:
• Baseline Inner and Outer
• Historical shorelines

Outputs
Maps of CVI value for each variable,
and the Final CVI for the area.
 SOFTWARE NEEDED

A. GIS software
ARCMAP 10.1 or newer
http://desktop.arcgis.com/en/arcmap/

B. Shoreline Analysis
DSAS Tool
http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-
pages/DSAS/version4/index.html
OR
R Programming Language 3.2.4
https://www.r-project.org/
With AmbuR plugin
 So let’s start by launching

ARC Map 10.3

and start working with the data…

Thank you for your attention!!