1) The nature of jobs is changing as the knowledge economy

rises

October 10, 2017 http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/

 1) The nature of jobs is changing as the knowledge economy
rises
% change in employment, 1980-2015

All occupations 50%

Occupations requiring
higher levels of ...
Social skills 83

Analytical skills 77

Physical skills 18

October 10, 2017 http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/

 2) Since 1990, employment growth most rapid in education and
health services
% change in industry employment, 1990-2015

Educational services 105

Health care and social 99
assistance
Professional and 81
business services
Leisure and hospitality 63
Transportation and
39
warehousing
Other services 32

All 30
Financial activities
23
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/
October 10, 2017 4
 warehousing
Other services 32
% change in industry employment, 1990-2015

All 30

Financial activities 23

Construction 22

Government 20

Retail trade 19

Wholesale trade 12

Mining and logging 7

Information 2

Utilities -25

Manufacturing -30
October 10, 2017
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/
 3) Automation, robots, artificial intelligence are taking over
workers’ traditional tasks

47% 50%
Oxford researchers calculate McKinsey analysts estimate
this is the percentage of this is the share of activities
American employment that workers are paid to do now that
is at risk because of the could be automated using
expected impacts of currently available technologies
computerization in the – accounting for $15 trillion in
foreseeable future wages

http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf https://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/digital-disruption/harnessing-automation-for-a-future-that-works

October 10, 2017 6

 3) Automation, robots, artificial intelligence are taking over
workers’ traditional tasks

45 years
The timeframe estimated by artificial intelligence experts
when “high level machine intelligence” – unaided machines
that can accomplish any given task better and more
cheaply than humans – will be developed
- 2024: outperform language translators
- 2027: drive a truck
- 2031 : work in retail
- 2049: write best selling book
- 2053: work as a surgeon
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf

October 10, 2017

 4) People think many professions at risk – but not their own jobs
% of U.S. adults who think it is ___ likely that the following jobs will be replaced by robots or computers in their lifetimes

October 10, 2017 http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/

 5) People express more worry than optimism about future
automation

October 10, 2017 http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/

6) Workers express more positive than negative views on overall
impact of technology on their careers
% of U.S. workers who say the following

October 10, 2017 http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/

7) Workers with higher levels of education more likely to say tech
has increased opportunities, made jobs more interesting

College grad+ Some college HS grad or less

64
54 53 51

38
32

Made their work more Increased their opportunities

interesting for advancement
October 10, 2017 http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/
 8) People think knowledge of computers, social dexterity,
communications skills and access to training are key to success
Extremely Very Somewhat
important NET 85% important important
Having a detailed understanding of 40 45 12
how to use computer technology
85%
Being able to work with people from
35 49 12
many different backgrounds
85%
Training in writing and 37 48 13
communicating 82%
Access to training to keep skills up 33 49 16
to date 69%
Training in math and science 22 47 26
64%
Knowing a computer or 23 41 26
programming language 37%

Mastering social media 10 27 40

36%
Knowing a foreign language 10 25 43
 9) Americans think individuals and public schools should have
the most responsibility to make sure workers have the right skills
% saying these groups should have ___ responsibility in making sure that the American workforce has the right skills and
education to be successful in today's economy
A lot of Some Only a little None

Individuals themselves 72 22 3 1

Public K-12 education system 60 28 7 3

Colleges and universities 52 35 7 5

Employers 49 39 8 3

State governments 40 35 15 9

Federal government 35 34 18 11

October 10, 2017 http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/

10) Experts see major changes in education and jobs training
programs

In the next 10 years, do you think we will see the emergence of

new educational and training programs that can successfully
train large numbers of workers in the skills they will need to
perform the jobs of the future?

70% “yes”
30% “no

http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/05/03/the-future-of-jobs-and-jobs-training/
Theme 1) The training ecosystem will evolve, with a mix of
innovation in all education formats
Theme 2) Learners must cultivate 21st-century skills,
capabilities and attributes: Tough-to-teach intangibles
such as emotional intelligence, curiosity, creativity,
adaptability, resilience and critical thinking will be most
highly valued
Theme 3) New credentialing systems will arise as self-
directed learning expands
http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/05/03/the-future-of-jobs-and-jobs-training/
 Thank you!

Email: lrainie@pewresearch.org

Twitter: @lrainie
@pewinternet
@pewresearch

October 10, 2017

The future of work
10 facts about jobs in the future

Lee Rainie - @lrainie

Director Internet and Technology Research at PRC
IMF- World Bank Youth Dialogue on the future of work
Oct. 10, 2017