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Volume 24 / Issue 146 / July 31, 2018

Crude ($/barrel) (PGA page 280) Market Commentary

Diff to Diff to Futures Diff to Dated
FOB Crude Mid Change WTI strip Brent strip Brent strip
PCAGC00 70.07–70.11 70.090
AAQTL00 68.87–68.91 68.890
-1.560 PCAGO00 2.460 AAXBS00 -4.250
-1.410 AAQTK00 1.260 AAXBT00 -5.450
AAXAX00 -3.540
AAXAY00 -4.740
Crude Oil (PGA page 288)
Santa Barbara AAITD00 68.86–68.90 68.880 -1.145 AAITJ00 1.250 AAXBU00 -5.460 AAXAZ00 -4.750
Loreto PCAGH00 67.06–67.10 67.080 -1.445 PCAGQ00 -0.550 AAXBV00 -7.260 AAXBG00 -6.550 Two separate tenders for Colombian medium-sour Vasconia
Oriente PCADE00 68.06–68.10 68.080 -1.395 PCAGU00 0.450 AAXBW00 -6.260 AAXBH00 -5.550 crude for September delivery were heard offered Tuesday,
Napo AAMCA00 63.76–63.80 63.780 -1.245 AAMCD00 -3.850 AAXBX00 -10.560 AAXBI00 -9.850
Marlim AAITF00 68.82–68.86 68.840 -1.410 AAITL00 1.210 AAXBY00 -5.500 AAXBJ00 -4.790
market sources said. Colombia’s state-run Ecopetrol offered
Castilla Blend AAVEQ00 65.22–65.26 65.240 -1.410 AAVEQ01 -2.390 AAXBZ00 -9.100 AAXBK00 -8.390 500,000 barrels of Vasconia for a September 19-23 loading
Magdalena AAWFR00 65.32–65.36 65.340 -1.410 AAWFS00 -2.290 AAXCA00 -9.000 AAXBL00 -8.290 window. According to market sources, the cargo was
Vasconia PCAGI00 68.77–68.81 68.790 -1.410 PCAGR00 1.160 AAXCB00 -5.550 AAXBN00 -4.840
Mesa 30 AAITB00 68.07–68.11 68.090 -1.410 AAITH00 0.460 AAXCC00 -6.250 AAXBO00 -5.540 awarded Tuesday to an undisclosed buyer at below minus
Latin America WTI strip AAXBP00 67.630 $5.80/b to ICE Brent. During the day, offers for Vasconia were
Latin America Futures Brent strip AAXBQ00 74.340
Latin America Dated Brent strip AAXBR00 73.630
talked at around minus $5. “There has not been one
[Vasconia] cargo trading north of minus $5.70/b,” one market
Mexico Crude Postings ($/barrel) (PGA page 1063) source said. Colombia exports an average of 13 to 15 cargoes
Formula Formula Value Constant (k) Posting Change of Vasconia on a monthly basis. Meanwhile, Canada-based
Maya 0.4(WTS + USGC HSFO) + 0.1(LLS + Dated Brent) AAVLO00 62.07 AAYCP00 2.30 PDATS09 64.37 -0.91 Parex Resources was also heard offering another cargo with
Isthmus 0.4(WTS + LLS) + 0.2(Dated Brent) AAVLP00 64.70 AAYCQ00 2.80 PDATO09 67.50 -0.75 500,000 barrels of the same Colombian grade to be delivered
Olmeca 0.333(WTS + LLS + Dated Brent) AAVLQ00 66.26 AAYCR00 4.40 PDATT09 70.66 -0.73
the first week of September. Vasconia was assessed down 5
Maya USWC 0.4(WTS + USGC No.6 3%) + 0.1(LLS + Dated Brent) AAUFV00 62.07 AAUWK00 2.15 AAUPK00 64.22 -0.910
Isthmus USWC 0.4(WTS + LLS) + 0.2(Dated Brent) AAXLZ00 64.70 AAXLY00 2.80 AAXKJ00 67.50 -0.75 cents from Monday, based on price indications. Also in
Europe tenders, BHP Billiton was heard offering 360,000 barrels of
Maya 0.527(Brent) + 0.467(FO 3.5%) – 0.25(FO 1% – FO 3.5%) AAVLR00 69.84 AAYXA00 -3.05 AAYXE00 66.79 -0.76
Isthmus 0.887(Brent) + 0.113(FO 3.5%) – 0.16(FO 1% – FO 3.5%) AAVLS00 73.17 AAYXB00 -1.75 AAYXF00 71.42 -0.70
Trinidad and Tobago’s Calypso crude for September 11-13
Olmeca (Brent) AAXNE00 74.46 AAXND00 -1.50 AAXNC00 72.96 -0.67 loading. The cargo was scheduled to be awarded Thursday.
Asia Calypso is a blend crude with 32.30-32.60 API gravity. Three
Maya (Oman + Dubai)/2 AAVLU00 73.70 AAYXC00 -7.25 AAYXG00 66.45 +0.20
Isthmus (Oman + Dubai)/2 AAVLT00 73.70 AAYXD00 -0.15 AAYXH00 73.55 +0.20 separate cargoes totaling 1.2 million barrels of Calypso have
been imported by US Gulf Coast refiners so far in 2018,
Spot refined products (PGA page 164) according to US Customs Bureau data.
$/barrel Mid Change $/barrel Mid Change
Colombia Argentina
FO 1.75%S FOB PPARO00 63.82–63.84 63.830 -1.440 ULSD CIF AAXWZ00 91.980
-1.640 Products (PGA page 495)
Diluent Naphtha Ex-Ship AAXYB00 68.380 -1.310 Peru
US exports of oil products to Mexico fell in May
Ecuador Naphtha FOB PAAAS00 74.73–74.75 74.740 -1.500
FO 2.2% FOB PPASL00 63.58–63.60 63.590 -1.440 FO 1.6% FOB PPARK00 64.13–64.15 64.140 -1.440 compared to the high import levels in April, according to
RON 93 CIF AAXYC00 92.680 -1.690 Natural Gasoline CIF AAXWD00 66.580 -1.040 the most recent data from the Energy Information
ULSD CIF AAXWF00 91.460 ULSD CIF AAXWY00 90.110 -1.670
-1.670 Administration. Exports of ultra low sulfur diesel
declined in May to 8.25 million barrels, compared to 9.36

Latin american wire July 31, 2018

Mexico refined products (PGA page 164) US benchmarks

$/barrel Change Peso/liter Change Mid Change
Gasoline CIF Eastern Mexico AAXWA00 86.460 -1.390 AATFH00 10.130 -0.110 US Gulf Coast waterborne products (PGA page 156)
Gasoline CIF Rosarito AATFA00 85.340 -1.420 AATFK00 10.000 -0.120
Gasoline CIF Lazaro Cardenas AATFD00 85.810 -1.420 AATFN00 10.050 -0.120
Unleaded 87 PGACU00 208.10–208.20 208.150 -4.330
ULSD CIF Eastern Mexico AAXWE00 87.880 -1.690 AATFI00 10.300 -0.140
ULSD CIF Rosarito AATFB00 90.750 -1.690 AATFL00 10.630 -0.150
No.2 Oil POAEE00 203.69–203.79 203.740 -3.910

ULSD CIF Lazaro Cardenas AATFE00 90.320 -1.680 AATFO00 10.580 -0.150 Jet 54 grade PJABM00 212.67–212.77 212.720 -3.930
Jet CIF Eastern Mexico AATFG00 89.350 -1.620 AATFJ00 10.470 -0.140
Jet CIF Rosarito AATFC00 91.880 -1.780 AATFM00 10.760 -0.160 USGC HSFO PUAFZ00 65.85–65.87 65.860 -1.450
Jet CIF Lazaro Cardenas AATFF00 91.510 -1.640 AATFP00 10.720 -0.140
US Gulf Coast FOB cargo products (PGA page 156)
Export ULSD AAXRV00 208.380
million barrels in April, the data showed. However, the
Bunkers (PGB page 899) Export ULSD ($/mt) AAXRW00 652.010
volume was up from the 6.59 million barrels exported in New York products (PGA page 152)
May 2017. Regarding gasoline, exports to Mexico in May Marine fuel prices in Latin America were lower Tuesday as
totaled 10.44 million barrels, lower than the 15.68 million a weaker energy complex trickled downstream. The fall Fuel oil 1%S PUAAO00 69.00–69.02 69.010 -1.540
barrels registered in April but slightly up from the 10.03 included lower ICE Brent futures, prompt-month NYMEX Fuel oil 3%S PUAAX00 67.01–67.03 67.020 -1.520

million barrels in May 2017. Mexico’s imports of jet fuel ULSD and US Gulf Coast fuel oil. In the Platts Market on Crudes 2:30pm Eastern (PGA page 210 & 214)

also fell steeply, totaling 1.59 million barrels in May, Close assessment process, Peninsula Petroleum Panama

compared to 2.02 million barrels in April. However, they posted an initial bid at the peg of $439/mt ex-wharf WTI 1st month PCACG00 68.75–68.77 68.760 -1.370
WTI 2nd month PCACH00 67.62–67.64 67.630 -1.320
also were up from May last year, when they totaled 1.12 Balboa, Panama, for 500 mt for August 3-10. Peninsula Mars 1st month AAMBR00 69.10–69.12 69.110 -1.170
million barrels. Results are expected this week for gradually raised its position to $445/mt. S&P Global Platts Mars 2nd month AAMBU00 68.87–68.89 68.880 -1.120
Colombia’s Ecopetrol offer to sell one cargo of 92 RON assessed the price at $445/mt ex-wharf, down $1 day on LLS PCABN00 71.75–71.77 71.760 -1.170
ANS PCAAD00 74.50–74.54 74.520 -1.340
gasoline and one cargo of 88 RON gasoline, each with a day. Price indications were talked as low as $439-440/mt
Basrah AAEJH00 73.35–73.37 73.360 -1.330
minimum volume of 90,000 barrels and a maximum ex-wharf basis in the morning. The decrease tracked a
Crudes at 16:30 London (PGA page 1210)
volume of 100,000 barrels, at seller’s option. The 92 RON fall in the USGC high sulfur fuel oil assessment, which
Bonny Light PCAIC00 75.55–75.58 75.565 -0.685
gasoline should have a maximum sulfur content of 35 moved down $1.45 to $65.86/b — equivalent to a $9.21/
ppm, maximum RVP of 55 kpa (8 psi) and maximum mt dip. Elsewhere in the energy complex, ICE Brent and Caribbean FOB Cargoes (PGA page 162)
boiling point of 215 degrees C. The 88 RON gasoline NYMEX front-month ULSD both weakened on the day. ¢/gal Mid Change
should have a maximum sulfur content of 55 ppm, S&P Global Platts assessed ICE September Brent at Jet Kero PJAAD10 212.34–212.36 212.350 -3.85
maximum RVP of 55 kpa (8 psi) and maximum boiling $74.25/b at 2:30 pm EDT (1830 GMT), down 68 cents on
point of 215 degrees C. The cargoes should load August the day. Along the Pacific Coast of South America, IFO Fuel oil 2.0% PUAAS00 67.35–67.37 67.360 -1.45
16-20 at the port of Mamonal. Price basis for this tender 380 assessments mostly fell day on day. In Callao, Peru,
is a differential to S&P Global Platts Gulf Coast prices dipped $1/mt to $546/mt and at the competing
unleaded-87 pipeline gasoline assessments (M2). port of Guayaquil, Ecuador, decreased $1/mt to $496/mt.
Colombia’s President-elect Ivan Duque, who will take Market participants have been expecting resupplies this
office August 7, has said his administration will give week which could pressure prices downward regionally, Follow Platts OIL to get the latest industry
especial support to the energy sector, as an important sources said. IFO 380 in Valparaiso in Chile was $1 lower news and exclusive content
source of exports and revenue for the country. This at $566/mt on fresh supplier indications. Colombian price
week he announced his Mines and Energy minister will indications were $4 lower in Cartagena at $491/mt
be Maria Fernanda Suarez, who has been since 2015 delivered basis. On the East Coast of South America, the
Ecopetrol’s vice president for strategy and finance. Buenos Aires IFO 380 assessment fell $7/mt to $519/mt,

© 2018 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 2
Latin american wire July 31, 2018

Latin American Bunkers ($/mt) (PGB page 870)

IFO 380 CST Mid Change IFO 180 CST Mid Change Marine gasoil 0.1% Mid Change
Buenos Aires PUAYH00 518.95–519.05 519.000 -7.000 PUAYG00 568.95–569.05 569.000 -7.000 PBABR00 782.95–783.05 783.000 -6.000
El Callao PUAYP00 545.95–546.05 546.000 -1.000 PUAYO00 595.95–596.05 596.000 -1.000 PBABW00 852.95–853.05 853.000 -1.000
Valparaiso PUAYR00 565.95–566.05 566.000 -1.000 PUAYQ00 608.95–609.05 609.000 -1.000 PBABX00 865.95–866.05 866.000 0.000
Guayaquil AAJOC00 495.95–496.05 496.000 -1.000 AAJOE00 515.95–516.05 516.000 -1.000 AAJOG00 772.95–773.05 773.000 -7.000
Libertad PUAYT00 494.95–495.05 495.000 -1.000 PUAYS00 517.45–517.55 517.500 -1.000 PBABY00 771.95–772.05 772.000 -7.000
Cartagena AAJOA00 490.95–491.05 491.000 -4.000 PUBAE00 520.95–521.05 521.000 -4.000 PBACW00 823.95–824.05 824.000 -6.000
Montevideo PUBAQ00 582.95–583.05 583.000 -2.000 PUBAR00 605.95–606.05 606.000 -2.000 PBADA00 907.95–908.05 908.000 -9.000
Santos AAXWJ00 471.000 -2.000 AAXWP00 502.500 -2.000 AAXWO00 745.000 -6.000

Balboa PUBAD00 444.95–445.05 445.000 -1.000 PUBAC00 481.95–482.05 482.000 -1.000 PBACU00 684.95–685.05 685.000 -12.000
Cristobal PUAEF00 444.95–445.05 445.000 -1.000 PUABJ00 481.95–482.05 482.000 -1.000 POABJ00 684.95–685.05 685.000 -12.000
Panama Canal AAXWG00 445.000 -1.000 AAXWL00 482.000 -1.000 AAXWI00 685.000 -12.000

Petrobras Bunker Postings ($/mt) (PGB page 876)

IFO 380 CST Mid Change IFO 180 CST Mid Change Marine gasoil Mid Change
Paranagua PUAYU00 489.00-490.00 489.500 -2.000 PUAYI00 520.50-521.50 521.000 -2.000 PBABS00 776.00-777.00 776.500 -6.000
Santos PUAYK00 469.00-470.00 469.500 -2.000 PUAYJ00 500.50-501.50 501.000 -2.000 PBABT00 743.00-744.00 743.500 -6.000
Rio de Janeiro PUAYV00 469.00-470.00 469.500 -2.000 PUAYL00 500.50-501.50 501.000 -2.000 PBABU00 713.00-714.00 713.500 -6.000
Salvador PUAYN00 507.00-508.00 507.500 -2.000 PUAYM00 538.50-539.50 539.000 -2.000 PBABV00 758.00-759.00 758.500 -6.000

while Montevideo dropped $2 to $583/mt. In Balboa, MGO which climbed to a six-month high of 65.5 in July. Also, the Caribbean product postings (PGA page 466)
dropped $12 to $685/mt ex-wharf, as offers were talked Conference Board reported its US consumer confidence
Petrotrin (¢/gal) Effective Date
as high as $695/mt in the morning, down $10 on the day. index climbing to 127.4 in July from 127.1 in June. However, 83 Mogas AAOCF09 222.00 26-Jul-18
The decrease was in line with a 3.91-cent fall in NYMEX the gains were seen in the Board’s Present Situation Index, 92 Mogas Unl AANTB00 237.00 26-Jul-18
August ULSD to $2.1319/gal. while its Expectations Index fell. While “expectations 95 Mogas Unl PTADR00 246.00 26-Jul-18
Avgas 100/130 PTAHQ09 546.00 26-Jul-18
continue to reflect optimism in the short-term economic
Dual Purpose Kero PTAEP09 231.00 26-Jul-18
outlook, back-to-back declines suggest consumers do not
NYMEX (PGA page 1000) Gasoil 0.5%S PTADQ09 220.00 26-Jul-18
foresee growth accelerating,” the Board said in a release. ($/barrel)
910 GMT: Crude futures settled lower Tuesday, although The reports were also supportive for the US dollar index Bunker fuel oil PTAEM09 80.00 26-Jul-18
they remained within a well-worn range, with traders Tuesday, which helped to pull crude prices lower. Traders Source: Petrotrin

focused on looming US sanctions on Iran, OPEC production have been closely monitoring comments out of Trump
growth and macroeconomic indicators. September NYMEX Administration for signs that the US may soften its “conciliatory,” Flynn said. “Even through the Iranians
crude settled at $68.76/b, down $1.37, while September ICE approach to its sanctions on Iran, or offer waivers to some rejected it, its a change in tone that suggests there could
Brent settled 72 cents lower at $74.25/b. For the past 15 buyers of Iranian crude. US sanctions against Iran are due be some talks” prior to the imposition of sanctions, he said.
trading days, ICE Brent has settled between $72/b and to snap back November 4, which could remove up to 1 Still, the bears will need a more definitive statement, and
$75/b, while NYMEX crude has settled between $68/b and million b/d of crude from the market. US President Donald action, to get more traction on the downside. The upside
$71/b. Support has come from looming US sanctions on Iran Trump Monday said he would be willing to meet with Iranian for crude remains limited by higher OPEC and Russian
and tightening inventories, as well as positive economic President Hassan Rouhani, which helped pull crude futures production. A Reuters survey Monday showed that OPEC’s
indicators, notably in the US, which have bolstered refined a lower Tuesday. “Every time you’ve heard him mention Iran collective output increased by 70,000 b/d in July to 32.64
products prices. Fresh economic indicators were supportive in the past it has been very hardline,” said Price Futures million b/d. Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said
for equities markets Tuesday, especially the Chicago PMI, Group analyst Phil Flynn. Trump this time sounded more last week his country would boost its crude output by as

© 2018 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 3
Latin american wire July 31, 2018

much as 250,000 b/d in July. The rise in output, while not a NYMEX 2:30pm Eastern Settlement (PGA page 701)
surprise, will help to offset production declines in Iran and Crude oil ($/barrel) Heating oil (¢/gal) RBOB Unleaded (¢/gal)
Venezuela. Libya’s state-owned National Oil Corporation is Sep AAWS001 68.76 -1.37 Sep AAHS001 213.19 -3.91 Sep AARS001 212.91 -3.12
Oct AAWS002 67.63 -1.32 Oct AAHS002 213.74 -3.91 Oct AARS002 208.05 -3.27
now loading crude from the Zawiya oil terminal, after Nov AAWS003 67.27 -1.24 Nov AAHS003 214.53 -3.79 Nov AARS003 196.60 -3.00
declaring force majeure in mid-July. While the force
majeure has not been lifted, the loadings suggest Libyan US West Coast Refinery Yields and Netbacks (Summer) Effective July 31, 2018
production could rise in August. Libyan production fell to
US West Coast Crack Yield & Netback (PGA page 840)
700,000 b/d in June from 950,000 b/d in May, according to
Crack Yield
Freight Crack Netback Spot Price Crack Margin
S&P Global Platts data. It remains to be seen if the country
ANS TYAAD00 83.99 TDDGL00 0.00 TNAAD00 83.99 PCAAD00 74.520 TNAADMR 9.470
can stabilize to the point of ensuring production can return Arab Berri TYAAT00 85.85 TDDAE00 1.38 TNAAT00 84.47 AAXCT00 72.010 TNAATMR 12.510
to the 1 million b/d level seen prior to the latest disruption. Arab Light TYACX00 82.65 TDDAT00 1.41 TNACX00 81.24 AAXCU00 70.010 TNACXMR 11.280

Traders will look next to the weekly inventory figures due Bakken TYASK00 86.05 TDDRT00 6.50 TNASK00 79.55 AASRU00 66.820 TNASKMR 14.530
Basrah Light TYAGL00 82.67 TDDBW00 1.79 TNAGL00 80.88 AAEJH00 73.360 TNAGLMR 10.340
out from the US Energy Information Administration Escalante TYAKN00 82.15 TDDCW00 3.36 TNAKN00 78.79 PCAGC00 70.090 TNAKNMR 8.700
Wednesday for direction. US crude inventories have fallen Kern River TYAMV00 84.77 TDDGM00 1.71 TNAMV00 83.06 PCABJ00 72.500 TNAMVMR 10.560

33 million barrels since mid-May, with 13.5 million barrels of Line 63 TYANX00 85.00 TDDGN00 0.15 TNANX00 84.85 PCABM00 77.380 TNANXMR 7.470
Minas TYATC00 87.34 TDDGO00 2.95 TNATC00 84.39 PCABO00 69.350 TNATCMR 15.040
that at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery and pricing point Oriente TYAQV00 81.42 TDDEC00 1.44 TNAQV00 79.98 PCADE00 68.080 TNAQVMR 11.900
for NYMEX crude futures. US refiners have kept runs high, Mixed Light Sweet TYARD00 88.10 TDDGP00 2.07 TNARD00 86.03 AALRR00 61.270 TNARDMR 24.760

while US production growth appears to be flattening Thums TYASZ00 83.98 TDDGQ00 0.00 TNASZ00 83.98 PCACD00 74.120 TNASZMR 9.860
US West Coast Coke Yield & Netback (PGA page 842)
because of pipeline constraints out of the Permian Basin.
Coke Yield Freight Coke Netback Spot Price Coke Margin
ANS TYAAB00 85.86 TDDGL00 0.00 TNAAB00 85.86 PCAAD00 74.520 TNAABMR 11.340
Arab Berri TYAAR00 86.15 TDDAE00 1.38 TNAAR00 84.77 AAXCT00 72.010 TNAARMR 12.810
News and Interests (PGA page 100) Arab Light TYACV00 84.04 TDDAT00 1.41 TNACV00 82.63 AAXCU00 70.010 TNACVMR 12.670
Basrah Light TYAGJ00 83.81 TDDBW00 1.79 TNAGJ00 82.02 AAEJH00 73.360 TNAGJMR 11.480
Exploration & Production Escalante TYAKL00 85.42 TDDCW00 3.36 TNAKL00 82.06 PCAGC00 70.090 TNAKLMR 11.970
Kern River TYAMT00 88.26 TDDGM00 1.71 TNAMT00 86.55 PCABJ00 72.500 TNAMTMR 14.050

US crude exports cross 2 mil b/d mark Line 63

TYANV00 86.53 TDDGN00
TYATA00 88.25 TDDGO00
TNANV00 86.38 PCABM00 77.380
TNATA00 85.30 PCABO00 69.350
TNATAMR 15.950
in May fueled by Chinese demand: EIA Oriente TYAQT00 83.54 TDDEC00 1.44 TNAQT00 82.10 PCADE00 68.080 TNAQTMR 14.020
Mixed Light Sweet TYARB00 87.84 TDDGP00 2.07 TNARB00 85.77 AALRR00 61.270 TNARBMR 24.500
The US exported just over 2 million b/d of crude oil in May, Thums TYASX00 86.25 TDDGQ00 0.00 TNASX00 86.25 PCACD00 74.120 TNASXMR 12.130
with roughly one in every five barrels sent to China, the US Source: S&P Global Platts, Turner, Mason & Co.
Energy Information Administration said Tuesday. The
export data for May is slightly below earlier weekly and the US have been locked in a brewing trade war. In Meanwhile, the US imported nearly 7.83 million b/d of
estimates from the EIA, which had forecast that US crude June, China threatened to impose duties on US oil crude in May, down from more than 8.24 million b/d in
exports had averaged just over 2.09 million b/d that imports. Escalating tariffs could slow the growing US oil April, according to the EIA. Nearly half the crude imports
month. The EIA has since estimated that US crude exports export industry and hinder global economic growth, said were from Canada. The US imported 3.87 million b/d of
reached 3 million b/d the week of June 22 and averaged John Auers, an executive vice president at Turner, Mason Canadian crude in May, up from 3.73 million b/d in April.
nearly 2.06 million b/d over the first three weeks of July, & Company, in an interview on the Platts Capitol Crude The US imported 490,000 b/d of crude oil from Venezuela
although the agency has cautioned that these numbers podcast. “It’s not a bad thing to try to get a fair deal... in May, down from 561,000 b/d in April. US imports of
are preliminary. The US shipped an average of 427,000 b/d hopefully that’s all this administration wants to do,” Auers Venezuelan crude oil, which averaged over 1 million b/d a
of crude to China in May, up from 248,000 b/d in April, but said. “I think that both sides realize that nobody wins in a decade ago, have averaged 470,000 b/d through the first
below the all-time record of 448,000 b/d set last October, trade war.” The US shipped 289,000 b/d of crude to six months of this year as production in that country
according to the EIA. The export numbers come as China Canada in May, down from 342,000 b/d in April. continues to freefall.

© 2018 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 4
Latin american wire July 31, 2018

US Gulf Coast refiners import record Spot Tanker Rates

From To Cargo size (kt) Worldscale $/mt
Canadian crude by rail
Clean Medium Range Tankers West of Suez (PGT page 1910)
Roughly half of the Canadian crude oil sent to the US by Mediterranean UK Continent PFADCSZ 30 PFADC10 135.00 TCABA00 13.23

rail in May went to the US Gulf Coast as refiners continued Mediterranean US Atlantic Coast PFACWSZ 37 PFACW10 100.00 TCABC00 13.99
Mediterranean Mediterranean PFADBSZ 30 PFADB10 125.00 TCAAY00 6.06
to replace heavy barrels long imported from Venezuela, UK Continent UK Continent PFALYSZ 22 PFALY00 170.00 TCABV00 8.70
US Energy Information Administration data released UK Continent US Atlantic Coast PFAMASZ 37 PFAMA00 100.00 TCABX00 12.74

Tuesday shows. Nearly 204,000 b/d of Canadian crude UK Continent US Gulf Coast PFAMBSZ 37 PFAMB00 100.00 TCACA00 13.71
Black Sea Mediterranean PFABXSZ 30 PFABX00 135.00 TCAAP00 12.58
was sent to the US in May, up roughly 56,000 b/d from
Clean Medium Range Tankers East of Suez (PGT page 2920)
April and near the all-time high of about 205,000 b/d
reached in December 2017. Nearly 105,500 b/d of the Arab Gulf India PFABMSZ 35 PFABM10 202.50 TCAAF00 12.41
Canadian crude exported to the US by rail was sent to the Arab Gulf Japan PFABNSZ 35 PFABN10 140.00 TCAAH00 25.31

US Gulf Coast in May, up 22,000 b/d from April and an all- Singapore Japan PFAEBSZ 30 PFAEB10 141.50 TCABP00 12.75
time high, according to EIA data. Canada’s Baytex Energy Singapore Hong Kong PFAKWSZ 30 PFAKW10 295 TCADI00 9.83
said Tuesday on its earnings call that it was looking to Clean Long Range Tankers East of Suez (PGT page 2922)
increase crude-by-rail exports to the USGC, as it signs Worldscale
more deals with railroads (see story 847 GMT). The Arab Gulf Japan PFAEYSZ 55 PFAEY10 110.00 TCAAI00 19.89
record-breaking increase in Canadian crude-by-rail Arab Gulf Japan PFAMTSZ 75 PFAMT00 102.50 TCAAJ00 18.53

volumes to the US Gulf Coast comes as Gulf Coast Dirty Panamax Tankers Americas (PGT page 1962)

imports of Venezuelan crude fell to 490,000 b/d in May, Worldscale

Caribbean US Gulf Coast PFANZSZ 50 PFANZ00 110.00 TDABA00 8.54
down from 692,000 b/d in May 2017. Imports of crude
Dirty Aframax Tankers West of Suez and Americas (PGT pages 1960 and 1962)
from Iraq into the US Gulf Coast fell to 444,000 b/d in May
after reaching 623,000 b/d in April, its highest level since Caribbean US Atlantic Coast PFALTSZ 70 PFALT10 107.50 TDAAY00 8.88
January 2002, according to EIA. Overall, crude-by-rail Mediterranean Mediterranean PFAJPSZ 80 PFAJP10 122.50 TDABL00 5.67
movements in the US averaged nearly 401,000 b/d in May, Mediterranean US Gulf Coast PFAJOSZ 80 PFAJO10 102.50 TDABU00 17.21
UK Continent UK Continent PFAKDSZ 80 PFAKD10 122.50 TDACD00 8.31
up from about 395,000 b/d in April, but well below the UK Continent US Atlantic Coast PFAKESZ 80 PFAKE10 110.00 TDACG00 14.52
record of nearly 1.14 million b/d, set in October 2014. Dirty Suezmax Tankers West of Suez (PGT page 1970)
West Africa US Gulf Coast PFAIASZ 130 PFAIA10 67.50 TDACV00 11.74
UK Continent US Gulf Coast PFAHNSZ 135 PFAHN10 52.50 TDACH00 8.94
Dirty VLCC Tankers Americas (PGT page 1972)
Cambalache San Juan
Carolina Lumpsum
5 Fajardo
3 4 Caribbean China TDAFLSZ 270 TDAFL00 4.80 TDAFK00 17.78
Caguas Caribbean Singapore TDAFNSZ 270 TDAFN00 3.80 TDAFM00 14.07
P U E RTO R I C O Caribbean West Coast India TDAFPSZ 270 TDAFP00 3.40 TDAFO00 12.59
Dirty Aframax Tankers East of Suez (PGT page 2970)
1 2 Electric Power Authority Plants Worldscale
1 Costa Sur Plant
1. 990 MW Arab Gulf East PFAJDSZ 80 PFAJD10 104.50 TDAAC00 15.34
2 Aguirre Plant
2. 900 MW
Caribbean Sea 3 Palo Seco Plant
Dirty VLCC Tankers East of Suez (PGT page 2980)
3. 602 MW
4 San Juan Plant
4. 400 MW Worldscale
5 Cambalache Plant
5. 247 MW Arab Gulf Far East PFAOCSZ 270 PFAOC00 49.50 TDAAB00 8.41
Source: PREPA
Arab Gulf US Gulf Coast PFAOGSZ 280 PFAOG00 20.50 TDAAN00 6.51

© 2018 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 5
Latin american wire July 31, 2018

indicated that the move raised concerns with importers, in the first six months of 2018 amid a robust sugarcane
BRAZIL DATA: Refinery output continues
with the government pushing Petrobras to then pick up the harvest that has led to ample supplies and lower prices for
to ramp up in June slack. Crude oil processing volumes also rose in June, the biofuel. Brazilian motorists typically opt to fill tanks with
Brazil’s state-led oil company, Petrobras, continued to ramp according to ANP. Brazilian refineries processed 54.8 million hydrous ethanol when the price of the biofuel falls to 70% or
up output at the country’s refineries in June amid public and barrels, a 6.8% jump from the 51.3 million barrels less than the price of gasoline. About 90% of all new cars,
government pressure to meet domestic product demand, transformed in June 2017, ANP said. June’s processing was trucks and light vehicles can run on hydrous ethanol,
according to data the National Petroleum Agency released down 4.2% from 57.2 million barrels in May. The uptick in gasoline or any combination the fuels. The upswing in
Tuesday. Brazil produced 56.6 million barrels of oil products processing seen since May also boosted refinery throughput hydrous ethanol production and consumption sparked an
in June, up 5.6% from the 53.6 million barrels produced in to 312.4 million barrels in the first half of 2018, down 1% from 8.2% year-on-year slide in gasoline production in H1 2018 to
June 2017, the ANP said. That was the second straight year- the same period of 2017, the ANP said. Diesel and gasoline 75.8 million barrels, according to ANP. Production of other
on-year increase, ANP data showed. But June’s output was led production growth in June as output of the country’s important oil products also showed growth in H1 2018, ANP
down 3.1% from the upwardly revised 58.4 million barrels two most widely consumed oil products climbed for a fourth data showed. LPG production jumped 3.8% year on year to
produced in May, the ANP said. Petrobras, which operates straight month, ANP data showed. Diesel production 23.2 million barrels in H1 2018. A change in the way
about 98% of the country’s refining capacity, started to advanced 12.9% year on year in June to 23.6 million barrels Petrobras prices residential LPG has led to a rise in
boost refinery output in May despite lackluster economic compared with 20.9 million barrels in June 2017, ANP said. consumption after volatility undermined demand in 2017.
activity in Latin America’s largest economy. The upswing in But June’s output slid 2.5% from the 24.2 million barrels Jet fuel output also jumped 13.1% to 21.3 million barrels year
output over the past two months put production in the first produced in May, the ANP said. In the first half of 2018, diesel on year in the first six months amid greater demand for air
six months of 2018 at 323.5 million barrels, down 2% from production was down 1.2% from the same period of 2017 at travel, according to the ANP. Fuel-oil production,
the year-ago period, the ANP data showed. The company 125.6 million barrels, the ANP said. Gasoline output, meanwhile, dropped 7.7% year on year to 34.8 million
has faced increased public scrutiny since mid-May after a meanwhile, slid in June on growing competition from barrels in the first half of 2018, the ANP said. Fuel-oil output
10-day strike by independent truckers protesting high diesel hydrous ethanol, a biofuel alternative. Gasoline production could rise H2 after Petrobras recently closed a key offshore
prices caused shortages of food, fuel and medical supplies fell 4.4% to 12.9 million barrels in June compared with 13.5 natural gas export hub for 45 days and shut several gas-
across the country. The government implemented a diesel million barrels in June 2017, the ANP said. Gasoline output fired thermal power plants for maintenance, raising
subsidy that will cost Real 9.5 billion ($2.5 billion) through also slid 2.3% from 13.2 million barrels in May, the ANP said. concerns Brazil will need to generate power using older
the end of 2018 to settle the strike. Industry officials Hydrous ethanol output jumped more than 30% year on year thermal plants that burn fuel oil.

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Latin american wire July 31, 2018

Financial News biodiesel. Industry groups sent a letter to Argentinian plays. Omar Gutierrez, the governor of Neuquen, the
President Mauricio Macri saying biodiesel can replace some southwestern province that holds most of the play’s
diesel imports, which averaged around 57,000 b/d in 2017, potential, said the meeting in Neuquen City will bring
Argentina fuel supplies improve, but biodiesel
BAE newspaper reported Tuesday. Energy Ministry data together national and provincial authorities as well as labor
sector seeks to boost sale show that refiners imported 36,740 b/d of diesel in 2017, leaders and the executives from operators, rig suppliers
Argentina’s tightness in fuel supplies eased this week after while the rest was imported by the power sector. The and other services companies. Among those set to attend
Shell, a leading refiner, brought in a shipment of diesel and power sector consumed the equivalent of 24,070 b/d in the meeting are the country’s energy minister, Javier
gasoline products, even as the biodiesel sector says there 2017, according to Cammesa, the operator of the wholesale Iguacel, and its production minister, Dante Sica, Gutierrez
is room to replace imports by ramping up local market. The power sector burned no biodiesel last year, the said in a statement late Monday. “The objective of the
consumption of their product. Shell imported “a large data show. This is where there is room to immediately use meeting will be to articulate what is necessary in terms of
amount” of products, which arrived Saturday, said the 1.5 million mt of slack capacity in biodiesel production credit, logistics and all those recurrent areas that make it
Guillermo Lego, a manager of the Argentine Confederation to replace the imports, the industry groups said in the letter possible for a working plan to be carried out,” in order to
of Fuel and Hydrocarbon Retailers, an industry group. He to the president. The sector is running at low capacity rates make sure the play can develop and jobs be created,
did not have details on the shipment, and Shell could not be because of the loss of export opportunities to the US last Gutierrez said. Tension has been mounting since the exit of
reached for comment. The market “is calmer” this week in year, where import duties were increased so much that it Juan Jose Aranguren as the country’s energy minister in
terms of supplies, Lego said. Refiners had been restricting has become unprofitable to ship there. The US had been June, raising concerns that changes in energy policy could
sales to independent service stations and wholesale destination of 59% of the country’s biodiesel exports, cut the potential for profit, leading companies to trim
distributors earlier this month, leading to complaints of according to the Rosario Board of Trade The sector also investments. His replacement has said wellhead gas prices
shortages. The tightness in the market stemmed from two wants the biodiesel mix in diesel to be increased to 15% will rise in line with inflation, now at about 30%. That is
refineries being offline — about 15% of the country’s from 10%, and then to 20%, and its use should be ramped slower than previously established by Aranguren. At the
560,000 b/d of installed capacity — and a decline in profits up in cargo transport, farm vehicles and power generation. same time, a 50% devaluation of the currency against the
for refiners. The downstream market is still transitioning While the government has said it is in favor of a higher dollar since the start of the year has pushed down earnings
out of a May-June price on diesel and gasoline prices blend, there has been opposition from the auto industry, in dollar terms in the sector and pushed up some costs like
brokered by the government. While state intervention in truckers and power plants that their equipment can’t importing rigs. An increase in the benchmark interest rate
pricing has been ended, it is expected to take two to three handle more. Instead, refiners have been stepping up oil to 40% as well has made it harder to finance projects, from
months for refiners to raise prices to levels in line with and gasoline imports this year. Crude imports rose 45% to importing rigs to building infrastructure such as a revamped
Brent ICE, the international benchmark price followed in 2.8 million barrels in the first five months of this year from train line for lowering logistics costs in Vaca Muerta, a key
Argentina. That is because a 50% depreciation of the peso 1.9 million a year earlier, while over the same period to speeding up the pace of investment. Despite the
against the US dollar this year along with nearly 30% gasoline imports more than doubled to 1.8 million from challenges, Iguacel expressed cheer about the growth
inflation and a weakening economy have damped demand. 687,000, according to the latest energy ministry data. potential of Vaca Muerta during a two-day visit to Neuquen
Domestic prices are around 20% less than their Diesel imports fell 2.1% to 5.3 million barrels from 5.4 million last week. “We are growing by leaps and bounds in Vaca
international references, according to Lego. While the price over the same period, in part because a drought in the first Muerta,” he said in a tweet after visiting the shale oil drilling
difference has made it less economical to import supplies, quarter reduced demand from farmers. sites of Mexico’s Vista Oil & Gas and France’s Total July 27.
Shell made the order for the shipment. Refiners have been Iguacel said more independent companies like Vista are
making up some of the difference by charging higher prices needed to speed up and widen exploration and production.
Argentinian players to hold August 13
to wholesale buyers like farmers, Lego said. Faced with the But with production growth as forecast today, oil exports
complaints of shortages, the energy ministry is stepping up
meeting on Vaca Muerta from the play will reach 500,000 barrels a year by 2023, or
oversight of the downstream sector to properly supply the Argentinian energy industry participants are set to meet nearly 1,400 b/d. That would be in addition to the around
market, including with a threat of fines, he added. Instead August 13 in Neuquen with labor leaders and politicians to 28,700 b/d the country exported in 2017 of its heavier crude,
of looking abroad for diesel supplies, the biodiesel sector is discuss the future of the Vaca Muerta, as issues mount that according to energy ministry data. Gas exports are due to
seeking government support to ramp up local demand for could slow development of one of the world’s largest shale restart in September, with the first heading to Chile, he

© 2018 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 7
Latin american wire July 31, 2018

added. Even so, there are more immediate concerns for the second quarter loadings represented 33% of our total which ship heavy crude, meaning it could only take 53% of
play’s development stemming from the country’s financial heavy oil output,” he said. “That figure is targeted to rise to nominated volumes. Line 4 has a capacity of around
problems. A leading labor union in the Neuquen Basin has 50% of our total heavy oil output by 2020.” Baytex 796,000 b/d and originates at Edmonton, Alberta, while
warned of walkouts and other measures if services produced 25,544 b/d of heavy oil at its Peace River and Line 67 has capacity of 570,000 b/d, originates at Hardisty
companies continue to pay workers late. “We are working Lloydminster assets in the Western Canadian Sedimentary and typically carries heavy Western Canadian barrels. The
so that the employees get paid before the fifth business Basin in the second quarter, with that figure likely to reach two lines terminate in Superior, Wisconsin. “With [WCS/
day of each month,” Ricardo Dewey, a leader of the union’s at least 35,000 b/d to 40,000 b/d by 2020. For 2019 and WTI] differentials in the $18-$20/b range and higher, we
branch in Anelo, a town at the heart of the play’s current 2020, the producer has already secured deals to move started moving more barrels on railroads and last quarter
development, said in a statement Monday. “Otherwise we 9,500 b/d and 5,000 b/d by rail, respectively, and talks are saw superior netbacks,” LaFehr said. Baytex’s netback last
will make the corresponding complaints and we will take under way with refiners and railroads to lock in more deals, quarter was C$27.08/barrel of oil equivalent, compared
the measures that we have to take.” This could involve Lafehr said. “Currently we are loading Peace River barrels with C$18.30/boe in the same quarter of 2017. Separately,
workers showing up at drilling sites but refraining from in heated rail cars for the USGC. This is unblended raw the company’s total heavy, light, NGL and natural gas
doing their tasks. “We are very busy in Vaca Muerta and we bitumen without the need to dilute with condensates and output last quarter was 70,664 boe/d, compared with
know that investments will come permanently, but we also that’s cost advantageous for us,” he said. Producers need 70,095 boe/d in Q2 2017. “We have a deep inventory of
have this big problem with some contractors who cannot to dilute raw bitumen with condensates, like NGLs and drilling prospects and our target is to exit the year with
pay, who say they are in financial trouble,” Dewey added. pentanes, to increase viscosity and make the crude flow 94,000 boe/d,” La Fehr added.
The latest numbers from the Neuquen government show through pipelines. Typically, a barrel of diluent is needed to
Vaca Muerta produced 50,098 b/d of crude in April, move three barrels of raw bitumen, Baytex’s vice president
Brazil pushes Petrobras to delay platform
compared with production of 57,519 b/d of conventional oil for capital markets Brian Ector said separately. “That’s
and 3,854 b/d of associated oil from tight gas wells. Gas outright savings and this is helping us in seeking more
shutdown: minister
production from the play averaged 13.9 million cu m/d in market access for our barrels,” Ector said, without giving a Brazil’s government wants state-led oil company
April, compared with 22 million cu m/d from tight plays and figure on the savings. Baytex produced 9,419 b/d NGL from Petrobras to push the shutdown of an offshore platform
30.4 million cu m/d from conventional reserves, the data its assets in the Peace River, Lloydminster and Eagle Ford until later this year amid concerns about natural gas
show. Argentina is betting on Vaca Muerta to turn around in Texas in the last quarter with the company realizing an supplies, a move that would delay connection of a new
years of sagging oil production as conventional reserves average price of C$31.37 ($24.13)/b, it said in its earnings export pipeline aimed at boosting oil and gas production
mature. The energy ministry estimates the play will lead a statement. The company is using the Canadian National from the prolific subsalt region. “We’re going to analyze
recovery in total oil production to 750,000 b/d in 2030, up Railway network to ship crude to the USGC, with those whether it’s technically possible to do the shutdown in one
from 478,000 b/d this year. Over the same period, total gas barrels being loaded onto tank cars by Elbow River or two months,” Mines and Energy Minister Welling Moreira
production is expected to reach as much as 200 million cu Marketing, Ector said. Canada’s crude-by-rail exports have Franco said at an industry event in Rio de Janeiro on
m/d in 2030, up from 125 million cu m/d this year. steadily increased this year, averaging a record 198,788 b/d Monday. Petrobras said last week that it would shutter an
in May, up 5,320 b/d from April and 67,872 b/d from May offshore platform and gas-export hub at the Mexilhao
2017, according to Canada’s National Energy Board. The Field for 45 days to connect a new export pipeline that
Baytex eyes moving 50% heavy crude output
record rail volumes have been encouraged by wide price links the platform with the Lula Field. The stoppage would
to USGC in rail cars by 2020: CEO discounts for heavy Canadian crude. Western Canadian affect about 15 million cu m/d, although Petrobras
Canada’s Baytex Energy is looking to increase its crude-by- Select at Hardisty averaged at a $17.75/b discount to WTI in increased import capacity at two LNG terminals by 20
rail exports to the US Gulf Coast, as it secures more tank the second quarter, and has since widened to average at a million cu m/d to compensate. The company also took
cars and signs new deals with railroads and transloaders, $23.48/b discount so far in the third quarter, S&P Global offline several natural-gas fired power plants for
CEO Ed LaFehr said Tuesday. The company loaded an Platts data shows. Apportionment levels on export maintenance to reduce gas demand. Government officials,
average 8,300 b/d last quarter, and expects to increase pipelines also remain historically high. Enbridge said earlier however, are concerned about the additional strain on
that to 9,500 b/d in the third quarter and 10,500 b/d in the this month it would apportion 47% of crude nominated for Brazil’s hydroelectric generation system caused by the
fourth quarter, LaFehr said on an earnings call. “The August shipment on Lines 4 and 67 on its mainline system, shutdown. Rainfall has been lackluster during the

© 2018 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 8
Latin american wire July 31, 2018

country’s winter season, leading to depleted dam bottlenecks at subsalt fields in the Santos Basin more refinery, which is expected to have installed capacity to
reservoirs. Reliance on thermal power plants fueled by than 200 kilometers offshore. Many of the subsalt fields, process 165,000 b/d in a single refining train, was halted in
LNG imports, which are more expensive than locally including the Lula Field that is Brazil’s biggest oil and gas 2015 amid a corruption investigation. Earlier this month,
produced gas, could cause electricity prices to spike producer, contain heavy volumes of associated gas that Petrobras and China’s CNPC signed a letter of intent on a
during the runup to presidential elections in October. “The has been a limiting factor in oil output. Brazil has strict strategic partnership that could see CNPC fund
object of all of this effort is to diminish the impact on flaring rules, forcing to Petrobras to reduce crude completion of Comperj, where about 85% of the work has
people’s pocketbooks,” Moreira Franco said. The minister production and reinject much of the gas. The Mines and been finished. According to Moreira Franco, completion of
was scheduled to meet with Petrobras Chief Executive Energy minister also asked local executives to ramp up Comperj would lead to additional infrastructure in the
Ivan Monteiro late Monday. Petrobras is working to expand pressure on Petrobras to complete the Complexo region that would also benefit the Acu Port complex run
offshore export pipelines to reduce production Petroquimica do Rio de Janeiro, or Comperj. Work on the by Prumo Logistica.

© 2018 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 9
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