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1 Introduction
Irrigation and water resources management need accurate estimation and prediction of
reference evapotranspiration (ET0) [1]. The FAO Penman–Monteith equation [2] is
adopted and applied worldwide as a reference equation for estimation ET0 [3].
Nowadays, soft computing methods have been introduced and applied in estimation
and forecasting ET0. A vast number of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) methods of
intelligent computational, have been utilized as a tool for modelling nonlinear pro-
cesses such as ET0 [4]. Gene expression programming (GEP) [5] has been applied in
symbolic regression, time series prediction and in the field of hydrological modeling as
well as ET0 prediction. Support vector machine (SVM) [6] is widely used as a machine
learning algorithm to predict ET0 [7]. Here, we adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system
(ANFIS) which is a kind of ANN. Earlier, Keskin et al. [8] also used ANFIS to predict
the evaporation in a similar application considering the climatic data. Furthermore,
Karimaldini et al. [9] applied ANFIS for the daily modeling of ET0 considering the arid
conditions. The literature, includes novel machine learning methods to find the most
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019
G. Laukaitis (Ed.): INTER-ACADEMIA 2018, LNNS 53, pp. 1–9, 2019.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99834-3_31
2 A. Mosavi and M. Edalatifar
influential ET0 parameters [10–15]. They conclude that duration of daily sunshine is
the most influential parameter. Yet, the actual vapor pressure minimum, along with the
air temperature are considered as the further parameters for ET0 estimation. The
parameters of ANFIS are membership functions that they must be adjust. PSO, a
stochastic optimization technique, is used to adjust ANFIS parameters [16, 17].
The PSO determines parameters of optimization problem in least iteration [18]. The
data set which is used in this study have 8 features. When the data set have numerous
features, the network parameters and their training phase become complex. In this case,
the PCA as an effective statistical procedure, can be applied to extract features and
reduce dimensions of data set. Further, we demonstrate that the combination of PCA
and ANFIS is a promising approach. Moreover, it will be shown that the data which is
reduced dimension with PCA can be used instead of data with original dimensions
without any significant change in estimation results.
1 T
Rmm ¼ XX ð1Þ
n1
Eigenvectors and eigenvalues of covariance matrix (R) can be calculated using singular
value decomposition (SVD). Because eigenvalue is a rectangular diagonal matrix,
diagonal matrix is saved in column vector shown with U. In next step, U is sorted in
descending shown with k then eigenvector is sorted according k rows. Furthermore, X
can be projected in feature space:
where k is a number of PCs that remained. For example, if CPV is 98.5% and k is 5, it
means with remain 5 first row of k and corresponding eigenvector’s row, 98.5% of
information are remained and 1.5% of information are lost. After delete some rows of
eigenvector (Vreduced ), reduced data (Yreduced ) is calculated with Eq. 4.
Further, ANFIS is used to build the network. The parameters are membership
functions (MF) to be determined. The adjustment of Sugeno fuzzy inference system
(FIS) parameters which is a difficult and timely task is conducted through PSO.
current position, current velocity, distance between current position and Xpbest as well
as distance between current position and Xgbest is calculated by:
Where ith particle is shown with index i. Index t shows iteration number. Wi is an
inertia factor, cp is an individual-best acceleration factor and cg is a global-best
acceleration factor. Values of Wi, cp and cg are changed linearly during iterations.
Also, rand () is a function that produce a number between zero to one randomly.
Answer of PSO is Xgbest and Ygbest in last iteration. An algorithm for PSO is shown
in algorithm (1).
PSO algorithm and return error value (Y). Therefore, a function that its inputs are
parameters of ANFIS and input data as well as its outputs are MSE of output data and
output of fuzzy network is used in this study as a fitness function.
Notice that input and output data are constant and each time that call fitness
function they are given to function. It means particle of PSO are FIS parameters. This
fitness function flowchart is shown in Fig. 1.
where ET0 is equal to the reference evapotranspiration (mm day-1), and G = soil heat
flux density (MJ m-2 day-1). The D = slope of the saturation vapor pressure function
(kPa oC-1). Furthermore, the c = psychometric constant (k Pa oC-1), Rn = net radi-
ation (MJ m-2 day-1), T = mean air temperature (oC), and U2 = average daily wind
speed. In this study the ET0 is calculated using the application provided by Gocic and
Trajkovic [25].
3 Results
In this study, the monthly values of vapor pressure (ea), maximum (Tmax) and minimum
(Tmin) air temperature, minimum (RHmin) and maximum (RHmax) relative humidity,
sunshine hours (n) and wind speed (U2) during the period 1980–2010 were used for
generating PSO and FIS models. Data sets is divided into training, testing and vali-
dation. The training data set includes observed data measured for the period 1982–
1995, the testing data set is for the period 1996–2005, while the validation data set is
for the period 2006–2015. Tables 2, summarizes the parameters value i.e., standard
deviation (r) and mean (µ) for training, testing and validation data set.
2
P
n
i Þ ðPi P
ðO i O i Þ
i¼1
R2 ¼ ð9Þ
P
n P
n
iÞ
ðOi O i Þ
ðPi P
i¼1 i¼1
n
P n P n P
n Oi Pi Oi Pi
r ¼ vffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
i¼1 i¼1 i¼1
ð10Þ
u n 2 ! n 2 !
u P n P P n P
t n O2 Oi n P2i Pi
i
i¼1 i¼1 i¼1 i¼1
where Oi = predicted ET0 values obtained by PSO and FIS models, Pi = FAO-56 PM
values of ET0, and n = the number of training and testing data.
A Hybrid Neuro-Fuzzy Algorithm 7
Table 3. Results of performance analysis of network for RMSE, MSE, R2, and r
Training data Testing data
Station name Dimension size MSE RMSE R2 r MSE RMSE R2 r
Tehran 8 0.0727 0.2697 0.9696 0.9847 0.0905 0.3008 0.9636 0.9817
7 0.0590 0.2429 0.9753 0.9876 0.0704 0.2653 0.9717 0.9858
6 0.0706 0.2656 0.9706 0.9852 0.0511 0.2260 0.9794 0.9896
5 0.0756 0.2750 0.9684 0.9841 0.0811 0.2848 0.9677 0.9837
4 0.0705 0.2655 0.9705 0.9852 0.0940 0.3065 0.9621 0.9809
3 0.1146 0.3385 0.9521 0.9758 0.0962 0.3102 0.9611 0.9804
2 0.1172 0.3423 0.9510 0.9752 0.1798 0.4240 0.9292 0.9639
1 0.1675 0.4092 0.9300 0.9644 0.1485 0.3854 0.9407 0.9699
Zanjan 8 0.0578 0.2404 0.9698 0.9848 0.0570 0.2387 0.9747 0.9873
7 0.0562 0.2370 0.9720 0.9859 0.0906 0.3010 0.9618 0.9807
6 0.0366 0.L913 0.9809 0.9904 0.0645 0.2540 0.9696 0.9847
5 0.0469 0.2166 0.9754 0.9876 0.0639 0.2528 0.9692 0.9845
4 0.0538 0.2320 0.9718 0.9858 0.0527 0.2295 0.9749 0.9874
3 0.0558 0.2362 0.9708 0.9853 0.0618 0.2487 0.9707 0.9852
2 0.1178 0.3432 0.9383 0.9687 0.1255 0.3543 0.9382 0.9686
1 0.1954 0.4420 0.8989 0.9481 0.1787 0.4227 0.9146 0.9563
8 A. Mosavi and M. Edalatifar
results of proposed method are shown in Table 3. For better comparison, ANFIS was
trained with different dimensions of data. In other words, dimensions of data were
reduced with PCA then parameters of ANFIS were optimized with PSO using output
data of PCA. For checking the ability of the algorithm in response to new data, in
addition to result of training data, result of testing data are presented in Table 3.
Evaluated criteria have a few changes with reduce dimensions.
4 Conclusions
A hybrid algorithm of ANFIS, PSO and PCA is proposed to predict the ET0. Monthly
data including minimum and maximum air temperatures, vapor pressure, minimum and
maximum relative humidity, sunshine hours and wind speed have been used to develop
the models. The data were given to the PCA to move them to an uncorrelated space and
extract main features. The dimensions of the data were reduced with the PCA. Then the
output data of the PCA were used to train the ANFIS. The results were shown that
proposed approach has a good accuracy in term of r, R2, MSE and RMSE and it can be
used to predict ET0. Results were also shown that many dimensions of the PCA
outputs have not significant information. Therefore, through eliminating the dimen-
sionality, a simpler ANFIS network with less parameters can be obtained.
Acknowledgment. Dr. Mosavi carried out this research during the tenure of an ERCIM Alain
Bensoussan Fellowship Programme. Furthermore, the support and research infrastructure of
Institute of Advanced Studies Koszeg, iASK, is acknowledged.
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