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in
Encyclopedia of Environmetrics
(ISBN 0471 899976)
Edited by
Characterizations
Time
A spatial–temporal point process N is mathematically
defined as a random measure on a region S ð Figure 1 Spatial–temporal point process
10
Distance along fault (km)
−5
−10
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Year
introduction of interactions between different subre- [3] Brillinger, D.R. (2000). Some examples of random
gions is incorporated into this model by Lu et al. [13]. process environmental data analysis, in Handbook of
For further remarks on modeling and examples Statistics, Vol. 18, C.R. Rao & P.K. Sen, eds, North-
Holland, Amsterdam, pp. 33–56.
see [23] and [25].
[4] Daley, D. & Vere-Jones, D. (1988). An Introduction
to the Theory of Point Processes, Springer-Verlag,
Berlin.
Estimation and Inference [5] Diggle, P. (1985). A kernel method for smoothing point
process data, Applied Statistics 34, 138–147.
The parameter vector $ for a model with conditional [6] Fishman, P.M. & Snyder, D.L. (1976). The statistical
rate t, x, y, z; $ is usually estimated by maximizing analysis of space–time point processes, IEEE Transac-
the log-likelihood function tions on Information Theory IT-22, 257–274.
T1
[7] Guttorp, P. & Thompson, M. (1990). Nonparametric
estimation of intensities for sampled counting processes,
L$ D log[ t, x, y, z; $] dNt, x, y, z Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 52,
T0 x y z
T1
157–173.
[8] Heinrich, L. (1991). Goodness-of-fit tests for the sec-
t, x, y, z; $ dz dy dx dt 10 ond moment function of a stationary multidimensional
T0 x y z
Poisson process, Statistics 22, 245–278.
Asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood [9] Kagan, Y.Y. (1991). Likelihood analysis of earth-
estimator $O have been derived under various con- quake catalogs, Journal of Geophysical Research 106,
135–148.
ditions, along with formulas for standard errors;
[10] Kagan, Y. & Vere-Jones, D. (1996). Problems in
see, e.g., [19]. Alternatively, simulations may be use- the modelling and statistical analysis of earthquakes,
ful for obtaining approximate standard errors and for in Lecture Notes in Statistics (Athens Conference on
other types of inference (see Resampling methods). Applied Probability and Time Series Analysis), Vol. 114,
The estimated conditional rate t, x, y, z; $ O can C.C. Heyde, Yu.V. Prorohov, R. Pyke & S.T. Rachev,
be used directly for prediction and risk assess- eds, Springer-Verlag, New York, pp. 398–425.
ment (see Risk assessment, seismological). See [1] [11] Kallenberg, O. (1983). Random Measures, 3rd Edition,
Akademie-Verlag, Berlin.
and [6], for example.
[12] Karr, A. (1991). Point Processes and Their Statistical
Spatial–temporal point processes may be evalu- Inference, 2nd Edition, Marcel Dekker, New York.
ated via residual analysis, as described in [21]. One [13] Lu, C., Harte, D. & Bebbington, M. (1999). A linked
typically selects a spatial coordinate and rescales the stress release model for historical Japanese earthquakes:
point process in that direction. If the z coordinate coupling among major seismic regions, Earth, Planets,
is chosen, for example, then each point (ti , xi , yi , zi ) Space 51, 907–916.
of the observed point process is moved to a new [14] Merzbach, E. & Nualart, D. (1986). A characterization
of the spatial Poisson process and changing time, The
point (ti , xi , yi , zz0i ti , xi , yi , z; $
O dz), where z0 is
Annals of Probability 14, 1380–1390.
the lower boundary in the z direction of the spatial [15] Musmeci, F. & Vere-Jones, D. (1992). A space–time
region being considered. The resulting rescaled pro- clustering model for historical earthquakes, The Annals
cess is stationary Poisson if and only if the model is of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 44, 1–11.
correctly specified [22]. Hence a useful method for [16] Nadeau, R., Antolik, M., Johnson, P.A., Foxall, W.
assessing the fit of a point process model is to exam- & McEvilly, T.V. (1994). Seismological studies at
ine whether the rescaled point process looks like a Parkfield III: microearthquake clusters in the study of
fault-zone dynamics, Bulletin of the Seismic Society of
Poisson process with unit rate. Several tests exist for
America 84, 247–263.
this purpose; see, for example, [8] or [20]. [17] Ogata, Y. (1998). Space–time point process models for
earthquake occurrences, The Annals of the Institute of
References Statistical Mathematics 50, 379–402.
[18] Rathbun, S.L. (1993). Modeling marked spatio-tempo-
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statistical aspects, Earthquake Prediction Research 1, Institute 55, 379–396.
183–195. [19] Rathbun, S. & Cressie, N. (1994). Asymptotic properties
[2] Brillinger, D.R. (1997). A particle migrating randomly of estimators for the parameters of spatial inhomoge-
on a sphere, Journal of Theoretical Probability 10, neous Poisson point processes, Advances in Applied
429–443. Probability 26, 122–154.
Point processes, spatial–temporal 5
[20] Ripley, B. (1979). Tests of ‘randomness’ for spatial [25] Vere-Jones, D. & Thomson, P.J. (1984). Some aspects
point patterns, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, of space–time modelling, in Proceedings of the
Series B 41, 368–374. Twelfth International Biometrics Conference, Tokyo,
[21] Schoenberg, F. (1997). Assessment of multi-dimensio- pp. 265–275.
nal point processes, Ph.D. Thesis, University of Cali- [26] Zheng, X. & Vere-Jones, D. (1994). Further applications
fornia, Berkeley. of the stochastic stress release model to historical
[22] Schoenberg, F. (1999). Transforming spatial point pro- earthquake data, Tectonophysics 229, 101–121.
cesses into Poisson processes, Stochastic Process Appli-
cations 81, 155–164.
[23] Snyder, D.L. & Miller, M.I. (1991). Random Point (See also Point processes, dynamic; Stochastic
Processes in Time and Space, Wiley, New York.
model; Stochastic process)
[24] Vere-Jones, D. (1992). Statistical methods for the des-
cription and display of earthquake catalogs, in Statistics
in the Environmental and Earth Sciences, A. Walden & FREDERIC PAIK SCHOENBERG,
P. Guttorp, eds, Edward Arnold, London, pp. 220–246. DAVID R. BRILLINGER & PETER GUTTORP