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BY P. C. B. PHILLIPSAND S. OULIARIS1
1. INTRODUCTION
165
2. PRELIMINARYTHEORY
(2) (2 T T =f ) )(0)
Writing
00
k=1
we have
o+ ol + o1-
0
The convergencecondition (Cl) is Reyni-mixing(R-mixing).This requiresthe
random element XT(r) to be asymptoticallyindependentof each event E E F,
i.e.,
P({(XTE nE) -*P(BE *)P(E), T-*ox.
In this sense, the randomelement XT may be thoughtof as escapingfrom its
own probabilityspacewhen R-mixingapplies.The readeris referredto Hall and
Heyde (1980, p. 57) for further discussion. Functional limit theorems under
R-mixing such as (Cl) are known to apply in very general situations. For
example,the theoremsof McLeish(1975)that wereused in the paperby Phillips
(1987) are all R-mixinglimit theorems.Extensionsto multipletime seriesfollow
as in Phillipsand Durlauf(1986).
It will he convenientfor muchof this paperto take (t to be the linearprocess
generatedby
00 00 00
where the sequence of random vectors {et} is iid (0, 2) with 2 > 0 and JCj =
j} where Cj = (Cjkl). This includesall stationaryARNIAprocesses
maxk {-11IC1jk1l
and is thereforeof wide applicability.The process (t has a continuousspectral
density matrixgiven by
f (X) = (1/2)( Cjeiix)E( Cjeiix)*.
(4) { E
ajyt-j, >l,-Eijislaji
< oX, s
j= -00 -00
Let a (1) = E 00ai. We shall make use of the following important lemma describ-
ing the asymptotic behavior of XT*(r).
and
We now partition = (y, x')' into the scalar variate Y' and the n-vector
x,(m = n + 1) with thez,
following conformable partitions of 2 and B(r):
i n
[ll~ 01
(8) ~ =L'L, L- [ 121 L22 J
with
1 = - 2 1Q1/5 =
= -1/2(42, L - 1/2
(9) 11l (4Q1 )/122121 21 22 21 22 22
rrau 1 at1
21]
21 22 2
lo [~f2l F2 2 ]
LEMMA2.2:
(a) B(r)-L'W(r);
(b) Lrq-111K, 71Q
Q W-11 2K K;
(d) 71
q lB dB', 11-2 QdQ;
REMARKS: (a) This lemma shows how to reformulate some simple linear and
quadratic functionals of the Brownian motion B(r) into distributionally equiva-
lent functionals of standard Brownian motion. These representations turn out to
be very helpful in identifying key parameter dependencies in the original expres-
sions. As is clear from (b)-(e) the conditional variance wll.2 is the sole carrier of
these dependencies in (b)-(e).
(b) Note that det Q = W11*2 det 222 and is zero iff 11*2 = 0 (given Q12 > 0)-
Note also that we may write
11.2 = w11(1-p2), P = @21022
@21/22 11'
where p2 is a squared correlation coefficient. When W112 = 0 (p2 = 1) then 2 is
singular and yt and x, are cointegrated, as pointed out in Phillips (1986). At the
other extreme when there is no correlation between the innovations of y, and x,
we have p2 = 0, 2 nonsingular, and a regression of y, on x, is spurious in the
sense of Granger and Newbold (1974).
(c) Consider the Hilbert space L2[0, 1] of square integrable functions on the
interval [0,1] with inner product Jofg for f, g E L2[0, 1]. In this space, Q is the
projection of W1 on the orthogonal complement of the space spanned by
the elements of W2.
HO: (A)1. *0
2
Za=T(a
a-1) -(1/2) ( ST/-Sk2)T( Eut2_
where
T
1
T l T
(1 1) STI= T-1 ,kt + 2T-1 Y. ws Y. k^tkt-s
1 s=1 t=s+l
for some choice of lag window such as ws= 1-s/(l + 1).
(iii) Phillips' (1987) Zt test: Regress ut= aut-1 + k, and compute
REMARKS: (a) Note that Za and Z, are constructed using an estimate T21that
is based on the residuals k, from the autoregression of ut on ut-1. When the
estimate STI is based on first differences Au,i in place of kt (as suggested by
the null of no cointegration) we shall denote the resulting tests by Za and Zt. The
distinction is important since these tests have very different properties under the
alternative hypothesis of cointegration, as we see below.
(b) In a similar way, Pu and P, are constructed using the covariance matrix
estimate 2 that is based on the residuals ( from the first order vector autoregres-
sion (14). When the estimate 2 is based on first differences {, =A z we denote
the resulting tests by Pu and Pz. Again the distinction is important since Pu and
Pz have different properties under the alternative from those of Pu and Pz.
(c) The variance ratio test Pu is new. Its construction is intuitively appealing.
P, measures the size of the residual variance from the cointegrating regression of
y, on x,, viz. T- EuT 2, against that of a direct estimate of the population
conditional variance of yt given xt, viz. th11 .2. If the model (1) is correct and has
no degeneracies (i.e. 2 nonsingular), then the variance ratio should stabilize
asymptotically. If there is a degeneracy in the model, then this will be picked up
by the cointegrating regression and the variance ratio should diverge.
(d) The multivariate trace statistic Pz is also new. Its appeal is similar to that of
P,. Thus, tSQis a direct estimate of the covariance matrix of zt, while Mzz is
simply the observed sample moment matrix. Any degeneracies in the model such
as cointegration ultimately manifest themselves in the behavior of Mzz and,
hence, that of the statistic Pz. This behavior will be examined in detail below.
Note that Pz is constructed in the form of Hotelling's T02 statistic, which is a
common statistic (see, e.g., Muirhead (1982, Chapter 10)) in multivariate analysis
for tests of multivariate disperision.
(e) Note that none of the tests (i)-(iv) are invariant to the formulation of the
regression equation (10). Thus, for these tests, different outcomes will occur
depending on the normalization of the equation. One way around this problem is
to employ regression methods in fitting (10) which are invariant to normalization.
The obvious candidate is orthogonal regression, leading to
(15) 'zt =Ut5
where
b= argmin b'Mzzb b'b = 1.
Here b is the direction of smallest variation in the observed moment matrix Mzz
and corresponds to the smallest principal component with
T
T-1 Eu2 = b'Mzzb= Xmin(Mzz)
1
where Xmin(Mzz)is the smallest latent root of Mzz Smallest latent root tests
based on Xmin(Mzz)may be constructed. For example, an orthogonal regression
version of the variance ratio statistic Pu would be:
Px = TXnmiin(Q ) /Xmin (M77z)-
with a fitted intercept. In a similar way, for test (v) the statistic P, may be
constructed using M = T- ET(zt-Z-)(z-ti)' and residuals {t from a VAR
such as (14) with a fitted intercept. These modifications do not affect the
interpretation of the tests but the alternate construction does have implications
for the asymptotic critical values. These will be considered below.
4. ASYMPTOTICTHEORY
Our first concern is to develop a limiting distribution theory for the tests
(i)-(v) under the null of no cointegration. In this case, the covariance matrix 2 is
positive definite. The statistic that presents the main difficulty in this analysis is
the ADF. We shall give the asymptotic theory for this test separately in the
second result below.
THEOREM4.1: If {Z
z}t is generatedby (1), if Q > 0, and if (Cl) holds, then as
T -* oo:
(a) Z 4
f>RdR;
tr
(d) (Z lo W)I
where notations are the same as in Lemma 2.2 and
'
K =(1,| WlW2 W2W2)
ADF 1R dS,
provided the order of the autoregressionin the ADF is such that p -x o as T -xoo
and p = o(T /3)
REMARKS: (a) Theorem4.2 shows that ADF and Zt have the same limiting
distribution.This distributionis convenientlyrepresentedas a stochasticintegral
in termsof the continuousstochasticprocesses(R(r), S(r)). Theseprocessesare,
in turn, continuousfunctionalsof the m-vectorstandardBrownianmotion W(r).
In accordwith our earlierremarksconcerningZ,, the limitingdistributionof the
ADF dependsonly on the dimensionnumbern (the numberof regressorsin (10)
or, equivalently,the system dimension m(= n + 1)). Given m, the ADF is an
asymptoticallysimilartest.
(b) The proof of Theorem4.2 dependscriticallyon the fact that the orderof
the autoregression p -x 00. While this behavior is also required for a general unit
root test in the scalarcase (see Said and Dickey (1984)) it is not requiredwhen
the scalar process is drivenby a finite order AR model with a unit root. It is
important to emphasizethat this is not the case when the ADF is used as a
residualbased test for cointegration.Thus, we still need p -* x even when the
vectorprocess {, is drivenby a finiteorderVAR. This is becausethe residualson
which the ADF is based are (random)linear combinationsof {,. These linear
combinations no longer follow simple AR processes. In general, they satisfy
(conditional) ARMA models and we need p -x 00 in order to mimic their
behavior.
(c) We mentionone specialcase wherethe requirementp -x o is not needed.
This occurswhen the elementsof (, are drivenby a diagonalAR processof finite
order,viz.
p
b(L)~t = ?,, b(L) = , bjL, bi= 1; Et,iid(O, 2).
i=O
In this case
Q = (1l/b (1))2T 9
IQO (fIb(eix) d
-x2)d ,
(d) Note that the ADF test is basically a t test in a long autoregression
involving the residualsui,. In this sense, the ADF is a simple extension of the
Dickey-Fullert test. Note that no such extensionof the Dickey-Fullera test is
recommendedby Said and Dickey (1984) since even as p -xoo the coefficient
estimate Te* has a limitingdistributionthatis dependenton nuisanceparameters
(cf. Said and Dickey (1984, p. 605)) in the scalarunit root case. In contrast,the
Z. statistic is an asymptoticallysimilartest. Thus, the nonparametriccorrection
of the Z, test successfullyeliminatesnuisanceparametersasymptoticallyeven in
the case of cointegratingregressions.This point will be of some importancelater
when we considerthe powerof these varioustests.
5. TEST CONSISTENCY
Our next concern is to considerthe behaviorof the tests based on Za, Zt,
ADF, Pu and P, underthe alternativeof cointegration.To be specificwe define
z, to be cointegratedif there exists a vector h on the unit sphere(h'h = 1) for
which q, = h'z, is stationary with continuous spectral density fqq(X). This ensures
that the action of the cointegratingvectorh reducesthe integratedprocessz, to a
stationary time series with propertiesbroadly in agreementwith those of the
innovations{, in (1). The spectraldensityof h'(z, - zt- ) satisfies
h'f(jX)h =fqq(X)I1- e A12
from which we deducethat
h'f(jX)h =fqq(O)X2 + o(2), X- 0.
This implies that h'Q?h= 0 so that SQis singular.
(18) S= I sT
21+ 1 _ (2,
LEMMA 6.1:
(a) h Qh = T1(qT- q0)o + op
(b) @l 2 = h' + op(T-
REMARKS: (a) We see fromLemma6.1 that both Th'Qhand TCZ11.2 are Op(l).
Indeed, both of these statisticsare weaklyconvergentin a trivialway, viz.
(19) Th'Qh, TC11.2= (q -qo)
where q. is a random variable signifyingthe (weak) limit of the stationary
sequence {qT} as T -* oo. Tests that are based on these statisticsthereforeresult
in inconsistent tests. Note also that the limiting distributiongiven by (19) is
dependenton that of the (stationary)sequenceq,, whichin turndependson that
of the data zt. Thus,no centrallimit theoryis applicablein this context.And any
statistical tests that are based on h'Qh or 611.2 under the null of cointegration
would need criticalvaluestailoredto the distributionof the data. Suchspecificity
is highly undesirable.
(b) The above resultssuggestthat classicalproceduresdesignedto test a null of
cointegrationcan have seriousdefects.Statisticsthat are based on Q or 611.2 are
not to be recommended.An alternativeapproachthat is inspiredby principal
componentstheoryis not to test Ho' directlybut to examinewhetherany of the
latent roots of Q are small enough to be deemed negligible. This approach
proceeds under the hypothesisthat Q > 0 (no cointegration)and is well estab-
lished in multivariateanalysis(e.g., Anderson(1984)).It has been exploredin the
present context by Phillipsand Ouliaris(1988).
7. ADDITIONAL ISSUES
APPENDIX A
PROOFOFLEMMA 2.1: The first part of the argument relies on the construction of a sequence { Y,
of stationary and ergodic martingale differences which are representative of the sequence { t,}. Under
(C2) this construction may be performed as in the proof of Theorem 5.5 of Hall and Heyde (1980, pp.
141-142). We then have
(Al) (t = Yt+ Z'+ - Z>+I
where { Y,= C(1)et } is the required martingale difference sequence and Zt+ is strictly stationary.
Note that with this construction E(YOYO')= Q and Zt+ is square integrable. Now
00 00
and
[Tr] oc oc
E(2(
(I ) -
YY( ) a (1)2Q
2fy
(see Ibragimov and Linnik (1971, Theorem 18.2.1)). Under (4) we may now obtain a martingale
representation of Y,* analogous to (Al) for (,, viz.
(A3) y* = Qt + Z* - Z,*+I
where Q, = a (1) Y, is a stationary ergodic sequence of martingale differences with covariance matrix
a(1)2g. We deduce from (A3) that
[Tr] [Tr]
T-1/2 EY*=T 1/2E +T 1/2 ( Z1*-_Z[*Tr
1 1
and as before
[Tr]
(A4) sup T-1/2 E (Y,*-Q,) -,0.
O< r I 1 P
Similarly,
[Tr]
(A5) sup T- / Y,)
-t 0.
o <r 1 1P
Noting that XT(r) = T-l/2y1Trr%, we now obtain from (A2), (A4), and (A5),
sup IXT (r')-a (1) XT (r)I -0
O<r 1 P
PROOF OF LEMMA2.2: Part (a) is immediate from (8). To prove (b) note that
121-L22A21a2iJ
[-A(j:w2w?)
2
J02
giving the results required. Next
(A6) q'B(r) -=,'L'W(r) =111 'W(r) = 111Q(r)
and (c)-(e) follow directly.
_ -2
Za=T(a- 1 )-(1/2) ( S2 S2) /(T U,_2
- S2
=(T'E~ U,_ aU (1/2) ( STI ) /(T2 E ,_2
Now
I T
Since (, is strictly stationary with continuous spectral density matrix fiC(X) we have
I T
T-1 , E _t-st' -Qi
WSZ
.s=1 t=s+l P
provided I -l oo as T - oo with I = o(T). Moreover, as in the proof of Theorem 2.6 of Phillips (1988),
we find
T I T
T- 1 Ezt- lt- T-ly E wS/,
' {t-st BdB'.
1 s=1 t=s+l 0
IB
'j'BdB'q/aII.2- R dR
with the final equivalence following from parts (d) and (e) of Lemma 2.2.
The proof of part (b) follows in the same manner. To prove (c) and (d) we observe that
= i, + Op(T- 1) from (14) and hence
t
1 Q2
=tr(f WWI)
as required.
4.2: The ADF test statistic is the usual t ratio for a' in the regression
PROOF OF THEOREM
p
(A10) Au, a *u, + E(,/u_ + v,p
i=1
where Xp is the matrix of observations on the p regressors (Au,_1,...A \ut_P), u.. is the vector of
observations of P
Qx =1- Xp(Xp'Xp)-'Xp and
sPv- T IE[42,,. Now
Since (, is a stationary (vector) ARMA process by assumption, it is clear that the new scalar process
,= ', given 71,is also a stationary ARMA process (see, for instance, Lutkepohl (1984)). We write
its AR representation as
00
where L is the backshift operator. Note that the sequence {dj } is majorized by geometrically
declining weights and is therefore absolutely summable. Moreover, given q, vt is an orthogonal
(0, q2(q)) sequence with
We now note that the ADF procedure requires the lag order p in the autoregression (AIO) to be large
enough to capture the correlation structure of the errors. Even if {t is itself driven by a finite order
vector AR model, the scalar process g, will follow an ARMA model with a nonzero MA component.
It is therefore always necessary to let p -. oo in (A10) in order to capture the time series behavior of
g,. The only exception occurs when {, is itself an orthogonal sequence. Formally, in the context of
unit root tests, Said and Dickey (1984) require p to increase with T in such a way that p = o(T1/3).
When this happens, noting that = Op(T- 1), we see that (A10) converges to (A14), conditional on
7q.In particular, we have
T
= b'T-1 z,1v,
oZ + (1)
T
= q'T- Zt v to+(l).
?
Now write
v, d (L )tt d (L)(t'-
(TrI (Tr I
q
(Al17) T- 1/2 EVt = d(l) 7- 1/2 t + opl
1 1
(q
7} BB'7}
q (y0}) (7'qJ BB7)' ov,0 1/2
flQdQ
( l )1/2
= R dS
as required.
PROOFOFTHEOREM
5.1: First observe that since the system is cointegrated, we have:
where
b=ch, c=(b'b)1"2
so that h and b are collinear. We have
b=b+ Op(T-)
from Phillips and Durlauf (1986, Theorem 4.1) and thus
and
s2 k-var(k,) = c2{ (1 +a2)yq(0)-2ayq(1)}
Now
T T
and then
T T
T- u 1-T- E u2 - (1/2)(ST2 Sk2)
1 1
It follows that
-
T- E ut-
Ztl = T(T t- I T (1/2)( STI Sk (T- Ut 1)
=OP(T)
as required for part (a). Similarly, we find that
=O(Tl /2)
in view of (A20)-(A22). Note, however, that if fqq(O)= 0 (so that q, has an MA unit root) we have, as
in Lemma 6.1,
TsI1= Op(1)
and in this case
Zt= Op(T)
as for Z,. This proves part (b). To prove (c) we observe that when fqq(O)> 0, qt has an AR
representation,
00
where { e, ) is an orthogonal (0, up). We take {a.) to be absolutely summable and then, following
Fuller (1976, p. 374) we write (A23) in alternate form as:
00
+E Z + e,
-
(A24) Aqt =(1 1)qt1 k+lAqt-k
k=l
where O,= L=aj (i = 2, 3,...) and 1 = -EJ1a.. Since qt is stationary we know that 01 # 1. In the
ADF regression (A10) (as p oo) we find that
52 +(2,
p
and hence
ADF= Op(T112)
PROOFOF THEOREM5.2: Note that both P. and P, rely on the covariance matrix estimate Sagiven
by (13). This estimate relies on the residuals ', from the VAR (14), i.e.
Z, =nz, + ft-
As T -- oo we have (Park and Phillips (1988))
where
g =E (ww2 1)/E( w22)-
We may write
ft Ht+ (I[- )Zt-} + Op(T-(/2)
H Wt + Op(T-1/2
[ 2 -9W2t-1} )
We now obtain
Q 0
(A26) 5?, >
p
where we partition Q conformably with Q?.Hence, using (A21) and (A27) we find that
PU= Op(T)
as required for part (a).
To prove part (b) we first note that by Proposition 5.4 of Park and Phillips (1989)
where
T T
mqq= T- l w22t= T- 1tq2.
1 1
It follows that
We therefore have
s2- -4* 0
p
Now
= Op(T-)
so that
1 - 1
Z. = Tt T- F, (G- _ 1))(1/2)( 5TI-Sk ) (T- Ut 1)
= Op(l)
P, = T{(h'fih/mqq) + Op(T-1)}
where Q is constructed using the first differences Azt = (t. However, since the system is cointegrated
the limit matrix Q2of Q is singular. Indeed h'Q2h= 0 and, further, since h's, = qt - qt- 1 we find
(A30) Th's2h= Op(l).
We deduce that
PZ= Op(1)
and the test is inconsistent, as stated. In the case of Pu we observe that
(A31) wl1.2 = det Q2/detf22
= det (H'QhH)/det Q22
i vp(T-h )
in view of (A30) and the fact that
ht H, = On(T- 1/2)
as stated.
PROOFOFLEMMA 6.1: Q2is a consistent estimator of Q2based on (,. h'Q2his a consistent estimator
of h'Q2h= 0 based on r, = h't, = q, - q, 1. Consider the following smoothed periodogram estimates
s =-I
h'Qh= 2/+1 _Irr(2S/T)
T T
= (21rT) 1/2qteei2,Tst/T-(21T) 1/2 qt lei2s{(t- 1)+1}/T
= (2rrT)l/2(q e2Ts-qo) + O (
= (21rT-l/2)(qT- qO)+ Op
(A)2
{h'Qh 2H(H- H) Hl'Qh}det( H'2H)/(det Q222)
Now S222 - ?Q22> 0, H1'92H1-- H1'92H1> 0, and
APPENDIXB
Tables I-IV present estimates of the critical values for the Z,, Zt, Pu, and PAstatistics. The tables
allow for cointegratingregressionswith up to five explanatoryvariables(n < 5). Criticalvaluesare
providedfor Models(10) and (16) and for cointegratingregressionswith a constanttermand trend.
The criticalvalues were generatedusing the Monte Carlomethodwith 10000iterationsand 500
observations.All the computationswereperformedon an IBM/AT using the GAUSSprogramming
language.The randominnovationsweredrawnfromthe standardnormalrandomnumbergenerator
in GAUSS (i.e., "RNDNS").Thus Q = I and p2 = 0 for the generateddata, therebysimplifyingthe
computationof the statistics.
Approximate95%confidenceintervalsfor the criticalvalues were computedusing the method
describedin Rohatgi (1984, pp. 496-500). In order to providesome indicationof the degree of
precisionin the estimates,we presentthe approximate95%confidenceintervalsfor n = 1 (referto the
rows labelled Al). Confidenceintervalsfor n > 2 are availablefrom the authorson request.
Usage
For Tables I and II (Z. and Z,): Rejectthe null hypothesisof no cointegrationif the computed
value of the statisticis smaller thanthe appropriatecriticalvalue.For example,for a regressionwith
a constant term and one explanatoryvariable(i.e. n = 1), we rejectat the 5%level if the computed
value of Za is less than - 20.4935or the computedvalueof Z, is less than - 3.3654.
For TablesIII and IV (P. and P,): Rejectthe null hypothesisof no cointegrationif the computed
value of the statisticis greater thanthe appropriatecriticalvalue.For example,for a regressionwith
two explanatoryvariables(i.e., n = 2) but no constantterm,we rejectat the 5%level if the computed
value of P, is greaterthan 32.9392or the computedvalueof P, is greaterthan71.2751.
TABLEIa
CRITICALVALUESFOR THE Za STATISTIC(STANDARD)
Size
0.1500 0.1250 0.1000 0.0750 0.0500 0.0250 0.0100
TABLE Ib
CRITICALVALUESFOR THE Za STATISTIC(DEMEANED)
Size
., 0.1500 0.1250 0.1000 0.0750 0.0500 0.0250 0.0100
TABLE Ic
CRITICALVALUESFOR THE Z.f STATISTIC(DEMEANEDAND DETRENDED)
Size
n 0.1500 0.1250 0.1000 0.0750 0.0500 0.0250 0.0100
TABLE Ila
CRITICALVALUESFOR THE Z, AND ADF STATISTICS(STANDARD)
Size
it 0.1500 0.1250 0.1000 0.0750 0.0500 0.0250 0.0100
TABLE Ilb
CRITICALVALUESFOR THE Zt AND ADF STATISTICS(DEMEANED)
Size
it 0.1500 0.1250 0.1000 0.0750 0.0500 0.0250 0.0100
TABLE Ilc
CRITICALVALUESFOR THE Zt AND ADF STATISTICS(DEMEANEDAND DETRENDED)
Size
n 0.1500 0.1250 0.1000 0.0750 0.0500 0.0250 0.0100
TABLE Illa
CRITICALVALUESFOR THE PU STATISTIC(STANDARD)
Size
0.1500 0.1250 0.1000 0.0750 0.0500 0.0250 0.0100
TABLE IlIb
CRITICALVALUESFOR THE PU STATISTIC(DEMEANED)
Size
it 0.1500 0.1250 0.1000 0.0750 0.0500 0.0250 0.0100
TABLE IlIc
CRITICALVALUESFORTHE PU STATISTIC(DEMEANEDAND DETRENDED)
Size
it 0.1500 0.1250 0.1000 0.0750 0.0500 0.0250 0.0100
Size
n 0.1500 0.1250 0.1000 0.0750 0.0500 0.0250 0.0100
TABLE IVb
CRITICALVALUESFOR THE P, STATISTIC(DEMEANED)
Size
n 0.1500 0.1250 0.1000 0.0750 0.0500 0.0250 0.0100
TABLE IVC
CRITICALVALUESFORTHE P, STATISTIC(DEMEANEDAND DETRENDED)
Size
n 0.1500 0.1250 0.1000 0.0750 0.0500 0.0250 0.0100
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