L

 7a  :
Plume  Rise
Basic  Segments  of  an  Elevated  
Plume
• Types  of  Plume

– Continuous   Plume: The  release  and  the  sampling  time  are  

long  compared  with  the  travel  time.

– Puff  Diffusion   /  Instantaneous  Plume: The  release  time  or  

sampling  time  is  short  when  compared  with  the  travel  time

• Types  of  Plume  Rise

– Buoyancy  Effect: Rise  due  to  the  temperature   difference  

between   stack  plume  and  ambient  air.

• Momentum  Rise: Rise  due  to  exit  velocity  of  the  effluents  
(emissions).
 Plume  Rise  (Briggs,  1972)
• Plume  rise  depends  on  momentum  and  
buoyancy.  The  buoyancy   assumed  in  this  
analysis  is  due  to  the  temperature  of  the  stack  
gases  being  higher  than  the  surrounding  
ambient.
 Plume  Rise  Calculations
For  stable  conditions  (Stability  categories   E  and  F)

?/A
𝐹
∆ℎ = 2.6
𝑢= 𝑆

Where,  
∆ℎ =  plume  rise,  m;  𝑔 =  acceleration  due  to  gravity;
𝑟 =  inside  radius  of  the  stack,  m;  
𝑢= =  wind  speed  at  the  height  of  the  stack,  m/s;  
𝑇P =  Ambient  temperature,   K;  𝑇S =  stack  temperature,  K
F =  Buoyancy  flux  parameter  (m4/s3)
S =    Stability  parameter  (s -­‐‑ 2)
 Plume  Rise  Calculations….
The  quantity   F is  called  buoyancy  flux  parameter   (m4/s3)

𝑇P
𝐹= 𝑔  𝑟 [𝑣S 1   −  
𝑇S

The  quantity   S is  a  stability  parameter  (s -­‐‑ 2)

𝑔 ∆𝑇P
𝑆 =   + 0.01  𝑜𝐶/𝑚
𝑇P ∆𝑧

Where,  ∆𝑇P / ∆𝑧  =  actual  rate  of  change  of  ambient  temp  with  altitude
 Plume  Rise  Calculations
For  neutral  or  unstable  conditions  (Stability  categories   A-­‐‑D)

𝐹?/A  𝑥g [/A

∆ℎ = 1.6
𝑢=

Where,  

𝑥g =  distance  downwind  to  the  point  of  final  plume  rise,  m  

0 .4
𝑥g = 120  𝐹 ,  𝑖𝑓  𝐹 ≥  55  𝑚4/𝑠3

𝑥g = 50  𝐹m/n ,  𝑖𝑓  𝐹 <  55  𝑚4/𝑠3

• A  thermal  power  plant  has  250  m  tall  stack  with  
inside  radius  of  2  m.  The  exit  velocity  of  the  stack  
gases  is  estimated  at  15  m/s,  at  a  temperature  of  
140oC  (413  K).  Ambient  temperature  is  25oC  (298  
K),  and  winds  at  stack  height  are  estimated  to  be  
5  m/s.  Estimate  the  effective  height  of  the  stack  
if  (a)  the  atmosphere  is  stable  with  temperature  
increasing  at  the  rate  of  2oC/km,  and  (b)  the  
atmosphere  is  slightly  unstable,  Class  C.
 L  7  b:
Human  Health  Risk  Assessment  due  to  
Air  Pollutants
 Human  Health  Effects  of  Airborne  
Particulate  Matter
• Daily  time-­‐series  studies  have  demonstrated  consistent  
associations  of  PM  with  mortality  and  hospital  
admissions,  reflecting  acute  effects.    

• Acute effects  on  lung  function,  asthma  exacerbations,  

and    other  outcomes

• Multi-­‐city  prospective  cohort  studies  have  shown  

increased  mortality  risk  for  cities  with  higher  long-­‐term  
PM  concentrations,  reflecting  chronic  effects.
 …?
• Whether  a  threshold  exists
• Who  is  at  risk  due  to
– Higher  exposures
– Greater  susceptibility
• What  particle  components  are  most  toxic
• Which  sources  should  be  controlled
 What  is  Risk   Assessment?
• Risk  assessment: provides  information  on  the  health  risk
– Characterizes   the  potential  adverse  health  effects   of  human  exposures  
to  environmental  hazards  
– Extent  to  which  a  group  of  people  has  been  or  may  be  exposed  to  a  
certain  chemical  is  determined  
– Extent  of  exposure  is  then  considered  in  relation  to  the  kind  and  
degree   of  hazard  posed  by  the  chemical,  thereby  permitting  an  
estimate  to  be  made  of  the  present   or  potential  health  risk  to  the  
group  of  people  involved  
• Risk  management: is  the  action  taken  based  on  the  risk  
assessment
 Purpose  of  Risk  Assessment
• Characterizes  the  types  of  health  effects  expected  
• Estimates  the  probability  (risk)  of  occurrence  of  
these  health  effects  
• Estimates  the  number  of  cases  with  these  health  
effects  
• Provides  an  acceptable  concentration  of  a  toxicant  in  
air,   water,  or  food  
• Covers  cancerous  as  well  as  non  cancerous  chemicals
 Process  of  Risk   Assessment
• Hazard  identification  :  A  determination  is  made  as  to  whether  
human  exposure  to  the  agent  in  question  has  the  potential  to  
increase  the  incidence  of  cancer  
• Dose-­‐response   assessment:  A  quantitative  relationship  is  derived  
between   the  dose,  or  more  generally  the  human  exposure,  and  
the  probability  of  induction  of  a  carcinogenic  effect  
• Exposure  assessment:  An  evaluation  is  made  of  the  human  
exposure  to  the  agent.  Exposure  assessments  identify  the  
exposed  population,  describe  its  composition  and  size,  and  
present  the  type,  magnitude,  frequency,  and  duration  of  
exposure  
• Risk  characterization:  The  exposure  and  dose-­‐response  
assessments  are  combined  to  produce  a  quantitative  risk  
estimate  and  in  which  the  strengths  and  weaknesses,   major  
assumptions,  judgments,  and  estimates  of  uncertainties  are  
discussed  
 Characterization of Risk Assessment

Hazard Technical hazard Population

Assessment Characterization

Technical Dose Risk

Data Integrative
response characterization
Response analysis
Characterization summary
Assessment

Exposure Technical
Assessment Exposure
Characterization
 What  is  Risk?
• Hazard  is  the  potential  of  an  entity  (or  activity)  to  cause  harm  
to  nature,  property,  or  people.

• Risk  from  a  hazard:  

risk  (harm/unit  time)  = frequency  (event  exposure/  unit  
time)  *  Consequence  
(harm/event  exposure)
 How  to  calculate  frequency  (f)?
• Frequency  (f)   =      Exposure  /  Unit  time  
=      Daily  amount  of  air  pollutant  inhaled  over  a  life  time  
/  person’s  weight  
=    (Breathing  rate  (m3/  day)  x  indoor  concentration  (µg/m3))
/  (  Weight  of    an  individual  in    kg)  
=        (B  x  C)  /  W          
where,
B  is  breathing  rate,
C  is  indoor  concentration,  
W  is  weight  of  an  individual.

• Units  of  frequency  is  (  µg  /  kg-­‐day)    

 How  to  calculate    Consequence  (C)   ?  
• Consequence   (c)  =  Life  time  excess  cancer  risk  /  Daily  exposure  to  1  µg  of  the  
pollutant/weight  of  an  individual

=  βa x  Kah x  I    

where,
βa =  “potency”  of  the  pollutant  for  inhalation  in    (µg/kg-­‐day)-­‐1
Kah =  a  conversion  factor  expressing   the  ratio  of  the  risk  to  a  human
to  the    corresponding  risk  to  an  animal  based  on  inhalation  toxicity
I  =      a  factor  relating  inhalation  data  to  risk  if  other  pathways  were                                          
also  available,  also  known  as  data  potency
 Understanding  Risk  Factors
• EPA  Reference  Dose:  Maximum  daily  acceptable  oral  
dose  of  a  toxic  substance,  smaller  numbers  mean  a  
pollutant  is  more  toxic
• Carcinogenic  Potency  factor  or  Carcinogenic  Slope  
Factor:  a  way  to  measure  the  safe  dose  of  a  toxin.  
The  EPA  says  that  this  chemical  is  safe  to  this  dose  
with  a  95th percentile  of  certainty.  Higher  numbers  
are  safer.  
 Risk  Factors  of  Various  Pollutants
EPA reference dose Carcinogenic Potency
Toxic Air Pollutants
(mg/kg-day) (kg –day / mg)
Antimony 4*10-4
Arsenic 3*10-4
Cadmium 5.71*10-5 6.3

Cobalt 6*10-2

Lead 4.29*10-4

Magnesium 1.15*10-6

Manganese 1.43*10-5

Mercury 8.57*10-5

Nickel 2*10-2
 Risk  Factors  of  Various  Pollutants
EPA reference dose Carcinogenic Potency
Toxic Air Pollutants
(mg/kg-day) (kg –day / mg)
Selenium 5*10-3
Vanadium 7*10-3
Biphenyl 5*10-2
Acenaphthene 6*10-2
Benzo-anthracene 6.1*10-1
Benzo pyrene 6.1
Chrysene 6.1*10-3
Fluoranthene 4*10-2
Fluorene 4*10-2
Naphthalene 4*10-2
 Risk  Factors  of  Various  Pollutants

EPA reference dose Carcinogenic Potency

Toxic Air Pollutants
(mg/kg-day) (kg –day / mg)
Pyrene 3*10-2
Phenanthrene 3*10-2
5-methyl chrysene 4.1*10-1
Acetaldehyde 7.7*10-1
Acetophenone 5.71*10-6
Acrolein 5.71*10-6
Benzene 2.9*10-2
Benzyl chloride 1.7*10-1
Bromoform 3.85*10-3
Estimating  Risk  due  to  Air  Pollution

• QALYs:  Quality-­‐adjusted  life   years

• DALYs:  Disability-­‐adjusted  life   years

• Calculations
Dose  – Response  Relationship
LC50
Dose  – Response  …..
Dose  – Response  …..
 Potency  Factor
• At  low  doses,  where  the  dose-­‐response  curve  
is  assumed  to  be  linear,  the  slope  of  the  dose-­‐
response  curve  is  called  the  potency  factor.
• Potency  factors   can  be  found  in  an  EPA  
database  on  toxic  substances  called  the  
Integrated  Risk  Information  System  (IRIS).
 Chronic  Daily  Intake
CDI  (mg/kg-­‐day)  =  Average  daily  dose  (mg/day)
Body  weight  (kg)

The  Average  Daily  Dose  is  the  total  lifetime  dose  averaged  
over  an  assumed  70  year  lifetime.

CDI  =  Concentration  (mg/m3)  x  Intake  rate  (m3/d)  x  Exposure  (days/life)

Body  weight  (kg)  x  70  (yr/life)  x  365  (days/yr)
 Incremental  Risk

Incremental  Risk  =  CDI  x  PF

 Example  1
• Estimate  the  incremental  cancer  risk  for  a  60-­‐kg  
worker  exposed  to  a  particular  carcinogen  under  the  
following  circumstances.  Exposure  time  is  5  days  a  
week,  50  weeks  per  year,  over  a  25  year  period  of  
time.  The  worker  is  assumed  to  breathe  20  m3 of  air  
per  day.  The  carcinogen  has  a  potency  factor  of  0.02  
(mg/kg-­‐day)-­‐1,  and  its  average  concentration  is  0.05  
mg/m3.  
 Example  1…
CDI  =  {0.05  mg/m3  x  20  m3/day  x  5  days/wk  x  50  wk/yr  x  25  yr}
60  kg  x  70  yr/life  x  365  days/yr

CDI  =  0.0041  mg/kg-­‐day

Incremental  Risk =  CDI  x  PF

=  0.0041  mg/kg-­‐day  x  0.02  (mg/kg-­‐day)-­‐1

Incremental  Risk = 81  x  10-­‐6

Is  this  considerably  high  risk  ??
 Exercise  1
Suppose  an  industrial  facility  that  emits  benzene   into  the  
atmosphere  is  being  proposed  for  a  site  near  residential  
neighborhood.   Air  quality  models  predict  that  60%  of  the  time,  
prevailing  winds  blow  benzene   away  from  the  neighborhood,   but  
40%  of  the  time  the  benzene   concentration  is  will  be  0.01  mg/m3.  
Benzene   has  a  potency  factor  of  2.9x10-­‐2 (mg/kg-­‐day)-­‐1.  If  the  
acceptable  risk  is  10-­‐6,  should  this  plant  be  allowed  to  be  built?
Given,  Exposure  Factors:
Daily  intake  rate  =  20  m3 (adult);  12  m3 (child)
Exposure  frequency  =  350  days/yr
Exposure  duration  =  30  yrs
Body  weight  =  70  kg  (adult);  15  kg  (child)
 Solu.  Example  1…
CDIadult =    {0.01  mg/m3  x  20  m3/d  x  350  d/wk  x  30  yr}                x  0.40
70  kg  x  70  yr/life  x  365  days/yr

CDIadult =  0.00047  mg/kg-­‐day

Incremental  Riskadult =  CDI  x  PF

=  0.00047  mg/kg-­‐day  x  2.9x10-­‐2 (mg/kg-­‐day)-­‐1

Incremental  Risk = 1.3  x  10-­‐5

The  risk  is  higher  than  acceptable  level,  so  the  facility  should  
not  be  built  as  proposed.  
 Solu.  Example  1…
CDIchild = 0.40  x[{0.01  mg/m3  x  12  m3/d  x  350  d/wk  x  5  yr}/  {15  kg  x  365  days/yr}
+  {0.01  mg/m3  x  20  m3/d  x  350  d/wk  x  25  yr}/  {70  kg  x  365  days/yr}]/70yr/life

Incremental  Riskchild =  CDIchild x  PF

Incremental  Riskchild = ____________?

Is  Incremental  Riskchild >  Incremental  Riskadult ??