Landscape Ecology (2005) 20:871–888
Springer 2005

DOI 10.1007/s10980-005-5238-8
-1

Research Article

Quantifying spatiotemporal patterns of urban land-use change in four cities of

China with time series landscape metrics

Karen C. Seto1,* and Michail Fragkias2

1
Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences and Center for Environmental Science and Policy,
Stanford Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-6055, USA; 2Center for
Environmental Science and Policy, Stanford Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, Stanford,
CA 94305-6055, USA; *Author for correspondence (e-mail: kseto@stanford.edu)

Received 23 March 2004; accepted in revised form 10 April 2005

Key words: China, Landsat TM, Landscape pattern metrics, Pearl River Delta, Spatiotemporal patterns,
Time series landscape metrics analysis, Urban growth, Urbanization

Abstract

This paper provides a dynamic inter- and intra-city analysis of spatial and temporal patterns of urban land-
use change. It is the first comparative analysis of a system of rapidly developing cities with landscape pattern
metrics. Using ten classified Landsat Thematic Mapper images acquired from 1988 to 1999, we quantify the
annual rate of urban land-use change for four cities in southern China. The classified images were used to
generate annual maps of urban extent, and landscape metrics were calculated and analyzed spatiotemporally
across three buffer zones for each city for each year. The study shows that for comprehensive understanding
of the shapes and trajectories of urban expansion, a spatiotemporal landscape metrics analysis across buffer
zones is an improvement over using only urban growth rates. This type of analysis can also be used to infer
underlying social, economic, and political processes that drive the observed urban forms. The results indicate
that urban form can be quite malleable over relatively short periods of time. Despite different economic
development and policy histories, the four cities exhibit common patterns in their shape, size, and growth
rates, suggesting a convergence toward a standard urban form.

Introduction envelop the surrounding landscape, they impact

The 20th century witnessed some of the most
dramatic urban transformations of Earth’s terres-
trial environments in history. At the start of the
century, there were only 16 cities with populations
over 1 million; by 2000, there were 417 (UNCHS
2002). In 1950, there was only one city in the world
with a population of 10 million; today there are
19. Currently, half of the world’s population
resides in urban areas, and it is estimated that this
will increase to 60% by 2030 (United Nations
2002). As urban areas expand, transform, and
the environment at multiple spatial and temporal
scales through climate change, loss of wildlife
habitat and biodiversity, and greater demand for
natural resources. Interactions between and
among urban land use, policies, and Earth system
function cannot be decoupled (Steffen et al. 2004).
The size and spatial configuration of an urban
extent directly impacts energy and material flows
such as carbon emissions and infrastructure de-
mands, and thus has consequences on the func-
tioning of Earth as a system. Levels of many
atmospheric gases are elevated in urban areas and
872
can affect biogeochemical processes (Pataki et al.
2003). Intensification and diversification of land
use and advances in technology have led to rapid
changes in biogeochemical cycles, hydrologic
processes, and landscape dynamics (Melillo et al.
2003). Characterizing and understanding the
changing patterns of urban growth is critical, given
that urbanization will continue to be one of
the major global environmental changes in the
foreseeable future.
Urban form and function have been studied in
the contexts of urban planning, urban economics,
urban geography, and urban sociology, much of
which are grounded in the spatial land-use models
of von Thünen (1875), Park et al. (1925), Muth
(1961), and Alonso (1964). Urban growth and
urban morphology have been the subject of
interest for geographers and economists for dec-
ades (Clawson 1962; Harvey and Clark 1965;
Batty and Longley 1988; Anas et al. 1998).
Changes in urban areas have been assessed relative
to global economic activity (Beaverstock et al.
2000), world cities (Sassen 2001), local factors
(Beauregard 1995), and socioeconomic changes
(Knox 1991). However, the physical process of
urban land-use change and the underlying socio-
economic process that result in certain spatial
configurations are relatively understudied.
The physical process of urban land-use change is
most commonly described as either a change in the
absolute area of urban space (a measure of extent)
or the pace at which non-urban land is converted
to urban uses (a measure of rate). The extent and
rate of urban growth provide indications of the
aggregate size of cities and the rate at which other
land such as agriculture is converted to urban uses
(Seto et al. 2000). However, aggregate growth rates
give limited information regarding spatial patterns
of urbanization or the underlying processes that
shape urban areas. The classic von Thünen (1875)
model of land use suggests that the configuration
of urban and rural land use reflects transportation
costs, land-intensiveness of productive activities
and market prices. However, the spatial configu-
ration of urban landscapes is as much a reflection
of past as it is an indicator of current socioeco-
nomic processes and interactions. For any time
period, the spatial arrangement of urban areas
provides a snapshot of various economic, social,
and political factors that influenced land-use
decisions.
The question then is how to quantify and de-
scribe changes in urban land-use patterns beyond
extent and cumulative growth rates? The char-
acterization of landscape mosaics and patterns
has a long tradition in ecological studies, where
understanding habitat fragmentation, landscape
heterogeneity, and the distribution of landscape
disturbance is important for understanding eco-
logical processes (Wickham and Norton 1994;
Kareiva and Wennergren 1995; Ives et al. 1998).
Commonly, landscape or spatial pattern metrics
are used to conduct an empirical analysis of
landscape patterns. A wide variety of indices to
characterize the landscape have been developed,
some of which describe the proportion of the
landscape with a particular land cover class, the
size, number, and perimeter of each land cover
patch, and the complexity of the shape of the
patch (McGarigal et al. 2002). Although these
indices of landscape patterns have been used
widely in ecology for decades, only recently have
they been applied specifically to the study of
urban morphology (Geoghegan et al. 1997;
Herold et al. 2002; Luck and Wu 2002; Herold et
al. 2003; Cifaldi et al. 2004; Schneider et al. in
press)
While urbanization is a world-wide phenome-
non, it is exceptionally dynamic in China, where
unprecedented urban growth rates have occurred
over the last two decades. According to recent
projections, the urban population of China will
grow by an estimated 330 million by 2025 (United
Nations 2002). The interaction of local, regional
and global factors has resulted in unique urban
configurations throughout the country. Like many
other socialist countries, the legacy of central
planning in China has generated patterns of urban
land-use that differ significantly from those in
market economies (Scarpaci 2000; Lin 2002).
The purpose of this paper is to describe the
spatial and temporal patterns of urban land-use
change in four coastal cities in China. Our primary
questions are: What are the spatial and temporal
patterns of urban land-use change? How can a
spatiotemporal landscape metrics analysis charac-
terize these changes? Are there common patterns
in the shape, size, and growth of urban areas
across cities at different stages of economic devel-
opment? Does the spatial configuration of cities
converge toward a standard form? What do the
spatial and temporal patterns of urban land-use