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Volume 16 • Number 4 • July/August 2018

CYME power engineering software for a smarter grid

CYME power engineering software for a smarter grid Standing behind thousands of T&D projects worldwide Power
CYME power engineering software for a smarter grid Standing behind thousands of T&D projects worldwide Power

Standing behind thousands of T&D projects worldwide

Power Engineering Software and Solutions

Eaton's extensive line of the CYME power engineering software features advanced analysis for transmission, distribution and industrial electrical power systems. Our services include engineering consulting, training, data integration and customized IT developments.

CYME is the perfect solution for:

Optimization of grid efficiency

Distributed generation impact

Network-wide planning using AMI/AMR data

Key reliability assets configuration improvement

Downtown meshed grids and secondary low-voltage distribution network studies

Ampacity calculations and real-time thermal rating of

cables

Protective device

coordination

Design and optimization of

AC substation grids

Data extraction from GIS and

quasi real-time simulations

Customized plug-in and applications

Contact us today to schedule a software demonstration or to learn more about our solutions.

1-450-461-3655

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cymeinfo@eaton.com

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©istockphoto.com/Jamesgdesign robert lobenstein Volume 16 • Number 4 • July/August 2018 www.ieee.org/power on the
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Volume 16 • Number 4 • July/August 2018 www.ieee.org/power

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features

24

Electrify Everything?

By Philip Sterchele, Andreas Palzer, and Hans-Martin Henning

34

An Electrified Future

By Trieu Mai, Daniel Steinberg, Jeffrey Logan, David Bielen, Kelly Eurek, and Colin McMillan

48

Electrification in the United Kingdom

By Russell Fowler, Orlando Elmhirst, and Juliette Richards

58

On the Path to Decarbonization

By Amber Mahone, Zachary Subin, Ren Orans, Mackay Miller, Lauren Regan, Mike Calviou, Marcelo Saenz, and Nelson Bacalao

108
108

Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MPE.2017.2789000

108 Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MPE.2017.2789000 magazine 58 69 Heat Electrification By Steve Heinen,
108 Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MPE.2017.2789000 magazine 58 69 Heat Electrification By Steve Heinen,

magazine

58
58

69

Heat Electrification

By Steve Heinen, Pierluigi Mancarella, Ciara O’Dwyer, and Mark O’Malley

79

Electrification and the Future of Electricity Markets

By Ryan Jones, Ben Haley, Gabe Kwok, Jeremy Hargreaves, and Jim Williams

90

An Electrified Nation

By Carla Frisch, Paul Donohoo-Vallett, Caitlin Murphy, Elke Hodson, and Nathaniel Horner

99

System Restoration Readiness

By J.D. Willson and M.E. Long

columns & departments

4 From the Editor

108

History

10

Letters to the Editor

122

Society News

12

Leader’s Corner

127

Calendar

20

Guest Editorial

132

In My View

magazine Editor-in-Chief Michael I. Henderson, mih.psat@gmail.com Associate Editors Hyde Merrill, Emertitus, History
magazine Editor-in-Chief Michael I. Henderson, mih.psat@gmail.com Associate Editors Hyde Merrill, Emertitus, History
magazine Editor-in-Chief Michael I. Henderson, mih.psat@gmail.com Associate Editors Hyde Merrill, Emertitus, History
magazine Editor-in-Chief Michael I. Henderson, mih.psat@gmail.com Associate Editors Hyde Merrill, Emertitus, History

magazine

Editor-in-Chief

Michael I. Henderson, mih.psat@gmail.com

Associate Editors

Hyde Merrill, Emertitus, History John Paserba, History

J. Paserba, C.E. Root, H. Rudnick, M. Shahidehpour,

G.B. Sheblé, J.C. Smith, M. Thomas, E. Uzunovic,

S.S. Venkata, J. Wang, S. Widergren

Spanish Editorial Board

Enrique Tejera, Editor-in-Chief Editors: M. Baqueadano, G. Gonzalez, G. Valverde

Editorial Board

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Governing Board

S.

Rahman, President

F.

Lambert, President-Elect

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Rahmatian, Vice President, Technical Activities

E.

Uzunovic, Vice President, Education

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& Image

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& Africa

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Leon, Region Rep., Latin America

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Chen, Secretary, M. Sanders, Past-Chair

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Schneider, Analytical Methods for Power Systems

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Chen, Electric Machinery

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Generation

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Dood, Power System Communications

 

&

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&

Measurements

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&

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Publications

Publications Board Chair, M. Crow

Editors-in-Chief

IEEE Electrification Magazine, I. Husain

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General Meeting Steering, D. Hall

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S. Ward

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Scholarship Plus, J. Peer

Website, Open

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Committee Chairs

IEEE Smart Village, R. Larsen, Chair

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Carlsen, Awards & Resources

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Chen, Distinguished Lecturer Program

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Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MPE.2017.2789001

IEEE Power & Energy Magazine

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DIgSILENT

PowerFactory 2018

DIgSILENT has set standards and trends in power system modelling, analysis and simulation for more than 25 years. The proven advantages of the PowerFactory software are its overall functional integration, its applicability to the modelling of generation, transmission, distribution and industrial grids and the analysis of the interactions of these grids.

PowerFactory 2018 responds to the latest analysis strategies for systems with a high proportion of renewable intermittent generation by the introduction of Probabilistic Analysis. In addition to the probabilistic AC/DC load flow and probabilistic optimal power flow calculations, this major new development incorporates powerful modelling capabilities, enabling efficient handling of large stochastic data sets. The 2018 release also incorporates a variety of new and enhanced models, as well as further improvements to the algorithms and usability of existing modules. In addition, the new version incorporates a new data model extension concept, allowing highly flexible definition of user-defined attributes for system components and data objects in general.

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about DIgSILENT PowerFactory visit www.digsilent.com. Selected Key Features New module Probabilitic Analyis of

Selected Key Features

New module Probabilitic Analyis of AC/DC and optimal load flow, incorporating powerful capabilities for managing stochastic parameters based on distribution curves and their correlations

Remedial Action Schemes (RAS) for comprehensive post-fault contingency analysis

New Frequency Response Analysis of dynamic models

Real-time data streaming for RMS simulations, based on IEEE C37.118

Save and restore time domain simulation state (snapshots) for subsequent analysis

Enhanced Cable System Analysis with improved cable layout modelling

Revision of DIgSILENT global library, with all protection devices now incorporated

New and improved models including Multi-Core Cables, Thyristor Controlled Series Capacitor and HVDC Line Commutated Converter

Data Model Extension concept for user-defined attributes, opening up almost unlimited data handling possibilities

Powerful graphic search option for network elements in diagrams, including geographic search

from the editor

©istockphoto.com/John1179

Michael Henderson

electric for all

scenario analyses for reducing carbon emissions

W What an exciting

time to be in the electric

power industry! as mem-

bers of the ieee, we stand

ready to deal with the rapid

growth of state-of-the-art

ready to deal with the rapid growth of state-of-the-art cy, wind and photovoltaic resources, and, more

cy, wind and photovoltaic resources, and, more recently, electric vehicle de- velopment. although many established power systems currently experience low growth of demand, scenario analy- sis shows increased electrification will be required to significantly reduce the total societal carbon emissions. One of the most economical means of lower- ing carbon emissions can be achieved by converting a number of end users of fossil fuels to electric loads supplied by zero-emitting renewable resources. targeted loads include transporta- tion vehicles, heating plants, and some industrial processes. Future power sys- tems, however, could look very dif- ferent with a considerable expansion of the grid, storage technologies such

as batteries and electrically produced fuels, and new de- mand-response technolo- gies all playing key roles in meeting requirements for ancillary services, peak shav- ing, and valley filling.

In This Issue

technologies, the major

transformation of the grid to one with ever-more re- newable resources, and challenges arising from interactions between the bulk system grid and the distribution system. given all this activity, how do we conduct long-term strategic planning, ensure that com- plex issues can be suitably addressed, and meet tar- geted reductions of car- bon emissions? Scenario analysis can identify many of the key issues needed to inform pol- icy makers and industry stakeholders. the simulation of a variety of futures can show the implications of potential policies and the conceivable need for changes in technologies and markets to make the policies a reality. there is real value to establishing common frameworks for technical challenges that must be addressed. the reduction of carbon emissions remains a primary policy worldwide as a means of addressing climate change. these policies have contributed to the widespread growth of energy efficien-

this issue of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine summa- rizes the scopes, assump- tions, methods, and results of scenario analyses achiev- ing low-carbon futures. the studies clarify several of the challenges that could be posed by various futures and suggest ways they could be successfully resolved. a common theme is the need for end-use electrification as a way of reducing carbon emissions. guest editor Mackay Miller com- piled seven well-written articles that summarize the means of conducting scenario analyses and explore the tech- nical and economic feasibility of “elec- trifying everything.” as described in the “guest editorial,” the issue provides critical insights into studying power system futures, including

approaches for conducting sce- nario analyses and understand- ing counterintuitive results

ways of evaluating and priorit- itizing changes to the supply and demand mix

the identification of potential ad- vantages of electrifying heat and

Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MPE.2018.2824098 Date of publication: 18 June 2018

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transportation loads and the bar- riers to achieving these goals

differences and similarities of achieving carbon-reduction goals in different climatic regions

the potential for demand to pro- vide both energy and capac- ity services

the need for market reform and changes to rate structures for low-carbon futures

a summary of several scenario

studies and the lessons learned from studies of the United States. the “in My View” column by Jim Wil- liams discusses many of the factors and policies that could reduce car- bon emissions. he recognizes elec- trification, energy efficiency, and the retention of nuclear power as ma- jor considerations.

the issue also fea- tures a standalone ar-

ticle, by J.D. Willson and M.e. Long, on system restoration readiness

in north america over the last 25 years. the authors acknowledge

important roles played by the ieee Power & energy Society (PeS)

and the north ameri- can electric Reliabil- ity corporation.

Scenario analysis can identify many of the key issues needed to inform policy makers and industry stakeholders.

solution techniques for load flow and optimal power flow. it should be of keen interest to both students and indus- try practitioners.

PES Updates

the ieee plays an es- sential role in prepar- ing the next genera- tion of electric power professionals and con-

tinuing their lifelong education. as discussed by Frank Lambert, PeS president-elect, ieee Student Branch chapters have ex- perienced phenomenal growth. he en- courages local PeS chapters and Young Professionals to show the true value of continued PeS membership by providing

Book Review

thanks to Ramu Ramanathan, our issue features a book review of Load Flow Op- timization and Optimal Power, written by J.c. Das. the book comprehensive- ly covers system modeling and different

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speakers at Student Branches and mentor- ing individuals.

A common theme is the need for end-use electrification as a way of reducing carbon emissions.

slav M. Begovic and Miriam P. Sanders. in “Society news,” we also recognize the recent passing of Mike adibi, who made ma- jor contributions to system restoration.

History

Vote!

this issue features state ments by can - didates for the ieee Division Vii delegate- elect/director-elect 2019 and ieee Divi- sion Vii delegate/di- rector 2020–2021 (the

elected individual will serve both as both delegate and direc- tor). Please see the “Society news” column for an introduction to the two highly qualified candidates, Miro-

in the “history” column, Joseph J. cunningham shares information on the early history of the of Lo wer Manhattan,

new York. he discusses the rapid rise of innovative technology developed by Leo Daft and the excelsior Power

electrification

company that quickly succumbed to completion, which implemented other groundbreaking advances in the state- of-the-art of those times.

Thanks

a special note of appreciation to Mel Olken, who continues to provide gui- dance and tutelage, and to ieee pub- lications staff who make this publi- cation possible. thanks to the many contributors to this issue, especially our guest editor, Mackay Milller, and authors. a particular note of apprecia- tion to associate editor John Paserba and Robert c. henderson, who pro- vides editorial assistance. p&e

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letters to the editor

R READERS ARE ENCOURAGED tO

share their views on issues affecting

the electric power engineering profes-

sion. Send your letters via e-mail to

Michael Henderson, editor-in-chief, mih

.psat@gmail.com. Letters may be ed-

ited for publication.

When Electrodes Erode

Your January/February 2018 issue has a fine article about arc lights (R. D. Barnett, “Arc lighting systems,” IEEE Power & Energy Magazine, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 56–64, 2018). I learned that in a dc arc, the positive electrode erodes in a concave shape, thus casting light down- ward along the axis of the carbon rods. the article did not say how the elec- trodes erode when excited by ac. Do both electrodes develop hollow de- pressions? Are there two light peaks along each electrode? I seem to remem- ber that movie projectors (probably ac) mounted the rods orthogonal to the line of sight to the screen, implying a nondirectional arc.

Myron Kayton

Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MPE.2018.2819027 Date of publication: 18 June 2018

10.1109/MPE.2018.2819027 Date of publication: 18 June 2018 share your thoughts send comments to mih.psat@gmail.com

share your thoughts

send comments to mih.psat@gmail.com

Author’s Reply

In the ICS text, Electric Lighting and Railways (Scranton, Pennsylvania, 1901, pp. 18:6–10), the unknown author states that for the open (no outer globe) “al-

ternating current arc, both carbons become pointed or have very small craters, so that the light is thrown up- wards much more than with the direct-current lamp.” Presumably, the

lamps that produce cra- ters differ from those that produce points in some unspecified way. With a closed arc lamp, the light distribution is similar to the open ac lamp—light is also thrown upward but, in this case (closed), both carbons have flat ends. the author says that this is a result of the arc’s tendency to “shift around over the ends,” but he offers no mechanism to explain the phenomenon. In closed lamps, the erosion of the carbons is greatly reduced because of the partial exclusion of air, and perhaps this affects the shape in some way. With respect to the question regarding the two light peaks, I believe the reader is imply- ing that, because of the shifting polarity,

there could be two alternating sources (top then bottom) of light. this may be the case but for such a brief interval that it would not be discernable to the hu- man eye. It should be emphasized that the ac

arc lamps were not in widespread use. Pro- jecting light up was not of much use in street lighting, the realm of most arc lights, so not

much information was provided for students who would not fre- quently encounter ac arc lights. About the projector question, pp. 18:89–90 from the same book deal with arc lamps used for “photo-en- graving work, blueprinting, search- lights” and for “projection work.” In the latter type, dc arc lamps were used be- cause, in ac lamps, the arc hummed loudly and moved around more than for a dc arc. Focusing mirrors were used with projector arcs, and the feed mecha- nism was more precise to keep the arc at the focal point of the mirrors. I hope this answers your questions. Let me know if you need anything more.

Bob Barnett

Your January/ February 2018

issue has a fine article about

arc lights.

p&e
p&e
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leader’s corner

T The Ieee has been a very Im-

portant part of my professional career

since my days as a student member

at Georgia Tech. after graduation in

1973, I began work at Georgia Power

Company as a distribution engineer

and started attending our local atlanta

Ieee Power & energy society (Pes) Chapter meetings. These meetings were very beneficial—they helped me grow my professional network and ex- pand areas of expertise for my career. The electric utility industry in the United states suffered a significant downturn in the early 1990s and all but stopped hiring new engineers. This trend continued until 2011 when Pes

Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MPE.2018.2823478 Date of publication: 18 June 2018

Frank Lambert

today’s student members

they are tomorrow’s leaders

launched our scholarship+ Program to attract students back to our profession. Pes has been and continues to be vital to our engineers working in in- dustry. many engineers from my gen- eration are retired or soon will be. We need to work together with our local Pes professional and student branch (sb) Chapters to help bring in the next generation of power engineering pro- fessionals and get them involved in Pes upon graduation. Pes has experienced phenomenal growth in our sb Chapters since we held our first Pes student Congress in ankara, Turkey, in august 2014. at the beginning of 2014, Pes only had 134 sb Chapters. The second Pes student Congress was held in Kuala Lumpur in august 2016. by the end of that year,

the number of Pes sb Chapters had in- creased to 240. Pes sb Chapters num- bered 316 at the end of 2017, as shown in Figure 1. The growth experienced in sb Chapters in regions 1–7 (the United states and Canada) has been much less than that enjoyed in other regions. To bring the same level of excitement to regions 1–7, a special one-time stu- dent Congress was held in boston in august 2017. The Third Pes student Congress is planned for 25–27 august 2018 in são bernado do Campo, são Paulo, brazil, to continue the growth. This congress will have three pillars to prepare our fu- ture leaders: academic, industry, and entrepreneurship. Our total Pes member- ship was 38,925 at the end of December

350 2014 2015 2016 2017 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 R1 R2 R3
350
2014
2015
2016
2017
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
R6
R7
R8
R9
R10
Total
2014
5
2
6
3
4
4
3
23
36
48
134
2015
10
2
8
3
4
8
3
25
49
63
175
2016
11
2
11
4
4
8
3
39
62
96
240
2017
12
2
11
5
5
11
5
57
90
118
316
PES SB Chapters

IEEE Regions

figure 1. The growth of PES SB Chapters.

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table 1. PES student members by Region.

 

PES Student

PES Graduate

IEEE Region

Geographical Area

Members

Student Members

1–7

United States and Canada

704

979

8

Africa, Europe, and Middle East

1,308

677

9

Latin America

1,682

236

10

Asia and Pacific

3,671

1,151

Total

7,365

3,043

2017, with almost 27% of that students. see Table 1. One of the biggest challenges facing Pes today is the transition from stu- dent member to member after gradu- ation, and we need your help! This is a particularly difficult time financially for many new hires, and often they don’t see room in their limited budget

for Pes membership. If they have not seen any value in Pes membership as a student, chances are they will not make the transition to Pes member af- ter graduation.

PES Chapters

We encourage all of our Pes Chapters to adopt an sb Chapter in their area.

This can include providing speakers for sb Chapter meetings, inviting sb Chapter members to attend local Pes Chapter meetings free of charge, vol- unteering to serve as mentors for stu- dents, and sponsoring technical tours. also encourage them to get involved in some of the leading initiatives, like Ieee smart village, Ieee smart Cit- ies, and Ieee smart Grid, to experience the value of membership while they are still students. all Pes graduate students are Pes young Professionals (yPs) and can hold officer positions in local Pes Chapters. We have success cases with Pes graduate students who were sb Chapter chairs and then transitioned to officers in their local Pes Chapter. Consider inviting some past Pes sb Chapter chairs and Pes graduate stu- dents (yPs) to get involved as an of- ficer in your Chapter. This action can

to get involved as an of- ficer in your Chapter. This action can 14 ieee power

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The First PES Student Congress shows the future leaders of tomorrow. bring energy and excitement

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bring energy and excitement to your Pes Chapter! If your local university doesn’t have a Pes sb Chapter, reach out to them

and help them start one. It only takes a Pes faculty advisor and six Pes stu- dent members. Pes has a “first-year” free student membership valid for indi-

viduals who have not been a Pes mem- ber before 2018. more information is available at https://www.ieee-pes.org/ images/files/pdf/student_flyer.pdf.

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The Second PES Student Congress was a success. PES Young Professionals We also encourage our

The Second PES Student Congress was a success.

PES Young Professionals

We also encourage our yPs to volun- teer as speakers for our sb Chapters in their local area. experience has shown that our student members very much like to hear from recent gradu- ates who are now in the workforce. yPs can also serve as mentors and be very helpful in providing advice for career decisions. The nearest Pes sb chapter can be found in the Pes

https://www

.ieee-pes.org/pes-communities/chapters/

Chapter locator; see

chapter-locator.

Other Ideas

If you or your Chapter has experience with other approaches to ease the tran- sition from student member to member, please send me an e-mail at flambert@ ieee.org, and we will schedule a call to discuss.

The Bottom Line

Pes student members need to expe- rience the value of Pes membership while they are still students. reach out to them, and show them the ben- efits of belonging to our Pes family. Today’s Pes student members are tomorrow’s leaders!

p&e
p&e
Today’s Pes student members are tomorrow’s leaders! p&e 18 ieee power & energy magazine july/august 2018
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MPE.2018.2835845

guest editorial

E “ElEctrify EvErything” has

become a common slogan, an easy-to-

understand pathway promising a clean-

er and more efficient energy system.

indeed, consensus is emerging that dra-

matic growth in electrification across

transportation, buildings, and even

some industrial uses will be a key strat- egy for achieving deep decarbonization.

yet while the concept of electrification

is easy to understand, many of the key

power system issues remain under- appreciated and unresolved. the full electrification of transportation, for ex- ample, would require massive changes to grid design and operation, and full electrification of heat networks in cold climates would place dramatic new pressures on wintertime supply and de- livery. in a highly electric economy with significant shares of variable wind and solar electricity, systemic mismatches between supply and demand would ne- cessitate vast amounts of storage as well as entirely new paradigms for capital in-

vestment and cost recovery. the goal of this issue of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine is to provide a snap-

shot of state-of-the-art research fo- cused on the role of electricity in deeply decarbonized energy systems. four of the articles take a geographic approach and describe how national or regional electric sectors might evolve in highly decarbonized futures. two of the arti- cles explore topics that cut across many regions: electrification of heat and mar- ket design. the final article summarizes

a wide range of recent electrification

simulations and proposes principles for

advancing the quality of analysis.

Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MPE.2018.2824099 Date of publication: 18 June 2018

Mackay Miller

electrification

its role in deeply decarbonized energy systems

in the first article, researchers from the fraunhofer institute for solar En- ergy systems describe pathways to a nearly carbon dioxide (cO 2 )-free german energy system by 2050. the authors lay out a rigorous simu- lation approach to eval-

uate the technical and

economic feasibility of achieving three pos-

sible cO 2 emissions

reductions targets by 2050: 80, 90, and 95%. in all three futures, the transformation of nearly

all economic sectors is required. But large and sometimes counterin- tuitive differences also emerge in meeting these three decarbonization targets. By describing and contrasting these differences, the authors

help us understand how a seemingly small differ- ence in emissions targets can have a large system impact. in the second article, researchers from the national renewable Energy laboratory (nrEl) describe an almost fully electrified U.s. energy system. sum- marizing a recently published study, the authors detail scenarios for high elec- trification in the United states, with and without accelerated investment in energy efficiency and zero-carbon electricity. the authors explore how

each scenario would impact electric- ity load shapes, generation capacity expansion, and cO 2 emissions. the

article also quantifies how much cO 2 reduction can be expected from end- use electrification on its own, as well

as when electrification is paired with energy efficiency, zero-carbon elec- tricity, or both. in this way, the authors illuminate issues that can help decision makers identify priorities for cost- effective cO 2 abatement. in the third article, researchers from na-

tional grid in the Unit- ed Kingdom describe how electrification contributes to achiev- ing a deeply decarbon- ized U.K. economy by midcentury. Drawing on their most recent “future Energy scena- rios” report, which has been published annu- ally since 2011, they lay out what would need to happen in three key energy sectors (heat, transport, and power)

to achieve the stated national target of 80% cO 2 reduction by 2050. across heat and transport, they find rapid growth in end-use electrification and identify cus- tomer adoption as a key barrier to the pace needed for achieving the targets. the fourth article compares and con- trasts 2030 decarbonization pathways in two distinct regions of the United states with similar carbon reduction goals: california and the seven-state northeast region. researchers from En- ergy and Environmental Economics, inc. (E3), national grid U.s., and siemens Power technologies international de- scribe what would need to happen in the two regions to achieve a 40% reduc- tion by 2030. not surprisingly, given the different climates, renewable resource

While the

concept of electrification is easy to understand, many of the key power system issues remain under- appreciated and unresolved.

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Conseil International des Grands Réseaux Électriques

Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MPE.2018.2835846

S yStemS Conseil International des Grands Réseaux Électriques Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MPE.2018.2835846

endowments, and building stocks, the two pathways look quite different, yet both rely heavily on electrification in achieving the stated goals. these similarities and differences illuminate how the unique features of different regions will powerfully shape energy system evolution under decarbonization. in the fifth article, a team of researchers from vector Un- limited, University of Manchester, University college Dub- lin, and nrEl explore heat electrification in depth. looking across Europe, the team summarizes cutting-edge research into how heating requirements might be anticipated, minimi- zed, and managed. for example, they describe unique re- search that simulates how household changes, such as relax- ing thermostat settings by 2–3 °c, would have significant system impacts as diverse as reducing generation capacity, wind curtailment, and coal generator ramping. the article reveals how important heat electrification will become in energy-system planning in cold climates. in the sixth article, researchers from Evolved Energy and the University of san francisco explore the challenges that electrification may pose for electricity market design. in par- ticular, the authors describe the novel and under-appreciated system challenges that would emerge in highly electrified, highly renewable energy systems. they go on to analyze why these challenges would likely pose existential questions for existing electricity market designs and conclude by suggest- ing concepts for future market design. in the seventh article, researchers from the U.s. Depart- ment of Energy survey the most high-profile U.s. electrifica- tion studies of the past five years, identifying commonalities but also significant differences between the studies’ findings and methodologies. for example, the scenarios forecast a wide range of projected electricity growth, ranging from a 1.5× increase to a 3× increase by 2050. the authors then go on to lay out a research program to improve the rigor, consis- tency, and relevance of electrification studies. in the concluding “in My view” column, Jim Williams of the University of san francisco notes that many coun- tries have adopted science-based targets for greenhouse gas reductions, and he then succinctly describes the mul- tiple, overlapping paradigm shifts that would be required to achieve these targets. the list of paradigm shifts spans nearly all parts of the energy landscape: how energy effi- ciency is promoted by policy, how struggling nuclear plants are dealt with, how electricity markets are designed, and how utilities are regulated. together, this collection attempts to provide a useful snapshot of activity in the electrification space. from the di- versity of authors and varying geographies being studied, it is apparent that electrification and its impacts have become a vital discussion point within the industry. We hope you will enjoy reading it and continue to engage with the power and energy community to advance the state of the art in this cru- cial area.

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By Philip Sterchele, Andreas Palzer, and Hans-Martin Henning

Electrify

Everything?

©istockphoto.com/tolokonov

T The firsT efforTs To limiT greenhouse gas

(ghg) emissions on an international scale date back to 1997

with the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. all contracting

states agreed to reduce their emissions by 18% in relation

to 1990. on 12 september 2015, in the Conference of Par-

ties 21, a follow-up agreement was elaborated to assure an

ongoing pursuit of climate protection strategies. in total, 195

parties to the Convention agreed on common goals to further

reduce their ghg emissions. This climate agreement came

into force on 4 november 2016 and, as of november 2017, was ratified by 170 states. By the end of september 2010, the german federal govern- ment had already developed a strategy for an environmentally

Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MPE.2018.2824100 Date of publication: 18 June 2018

friendly, reliable, and affordable energy supply. By doing so, the first steps for transforming the german energy system were taken. The primary goal of this transformation, called “energiewende,” is to significantly reduce ghg emissions. fig- ure 1 shows the historical emission values from 1990 to 2015 in germany divided into energy-related and other emis- sions, such as from agriculture and specific industry pro- cesses. The share of the energy-related emissions accounts clearly for the majority of the total ghg emissions (approxi- mately 85–90%). The blue line highlights the ghg emis- sion reduction targets set by the german federal government:

−20% by 2010, −40% by 2020, −55% by 2030, −70% by 2040, and at least −80% in 2050 or −95% wherever possible (relative to 1990). To investigate what technologies are needed for a techni- cally possible and economically feasible transformation of the

24 ieee power & energy magazine

1540-7977/18©2018IEEE

july/august 2018

Exploring the Role of the Electric Sector in a Nearly CO 2 -Neutral National Energy System

Exploring the Role of the Electric Sector in a Nearly CO 2 -Neutral National Energy System
Exploring the Role of the Electric Sector in a Nearly CO 2 -Neutral National Energy System
Exploring the Role of the Electric Sector in a Nearly CO 2 -Neutral National Energy System

german energy system in line with the declared ghg reduction targets, various studies by differ- ent teams throughout germany are being carried out. The energy system models used as the basis for those studies distinguish them- selves by different features. The remix model, for example, focuses heavily on the electricity sector and its link to the heating and mobility sector, considering, for example, the import and export of electricity with neighboring countries in a multiple-node approach. The aim of the model is to assess future energy-supply scenarios with high spatial and tempo- ral resolution. like the remix model, the scope model is a linear optimization program used to assess different energy- supply scenarios. its typical study area is europe (the Balkan regions are excluded), while the investigated period is defined by target years until 2050. The remod-D model, on the other hand, is a nonlinear optimization program to assess national energy systems through a single-node approach. its focus is identifying a cost-optimized national energy system in line with set Co 2 reduction targets as well as assessing interactions between different energy carriers and consumption sectors (see Palzer 2016 in the “for further reading” section for more details). While these three models achieve a temporal resolu- tion of 1 h, the Times Paneu model relies on typical days for its calculations. The strength of this optimization model is the assessment of interactions among the power, mobility, heating and industry sectors, while simultaneously considering a high geographical resolution. methodological differences as well as a different param- eterization of the models can lead to divergent results. That is why, in a currently ongoing project called regmex, differ- ent energy-system models are compared and used to analyze the transformation toward a nearly Co 2 -neutral energy sys- tem with the aim of identifying robust results, i.e., indispens- able technologies to achieve such a transformation. While a comparison of the individual models will not be discussed here, some of the main findings will be presented to address the following two research questions:

1) how can a cost-optimized transformation of the ger- man energy system be achieved—with consideration

of all energy carriers and consumer sectors—while meeting the declared climate targets and ensuring a secure energy supply at all times? 2) how does the resulting cost-optimized system con- figuration change, especially concerning its degree of electrification, depending on the investigated Co 2 reduction targets?

Overview: The German Energy System

Trends in primary and final energy consumption in germany have changed over time. Primary energy is defined as energy that has not been subjected to any conversion or transforma- tion process, for example, to heat or electricity. no conversion or distribution losses are considered in calculating primary energy. final energy, in contrast, is the useful, secondary energy available to the final user, and its calculation includes conversion or distribution losses. Primary energy consump- tion per person in germany has decreased over the years from 185 kWh in 1990 to 158 kWh in 2015. By comparison, aver- age consumption in the united states in 2015 was about 80% higher, at 285 kWh/person. however, while primary energy consumption in germany decreased, total final energy con- sumption has not changed significantly over time. even though energy is increasingly used more efficiently, growth, both economic and in consumption, prevent an overall decrease in energy consumption. figure 2 shows the development of final energy con- sumption divided into four consumption sectors: 1) low-tem- perature heat, i.e., energy to supply heat for space heating and domestic hot water supply; 2) process heat, for example to dry paper or melt steel; 3) mobility, i.e., road traffic, ship- ping, aviation and rail traffic; and 4) electricity, where all electricity applications are included. figure 2 shows that the german energy system relied heavily on fossil fuels such as natural gas, oil, and coal, while the total amount of the final energy consumption provided by other fuel types, such as firewood, sewage sludge, mine gas, and waste heat, amounted to approximately 15% in 2015. The distribution of final energy consumption among the four sec- tors in 2015 is roughly evenly distributed (each sector contrib- uting between 18 and 30%). however, the distribution of the energy-related Co 2 emissions by sector shows a completely different picture [figure 2(b)]. The electricity sector alone, which accounts for 21% of the total final energy consumption,

1,400 Other Energy-Related CO 2 Emission 1,200 1,000 – 20 % 800 – 40 %
1,400
Other
Energy-Related CO 2 Emission
1,200
1,000
– 20 %
800
– 40 %
600
55 %
400
70 %
200
0
GHG Emission, Million Ton CO 2 -eq.
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

80 %

95 %

figure 1. GHG emissions in Germany from 1990 to 2015, and target values to 2050 (blue dots). The green bars represent energy-related CO 2 emissions and the red bars other GHG emissions. Percentage reductions refer to the 1990 value. (Source:

Henning and Palzer, 2015.)

is responsible for approximately 44% of the total energy-related Co 2 emissions as power generation in germany relies heavily on fossil fuel-fired plants. in 2015, 71% of the gross electricity generation was provided by coal (42%), nuclear power (14%), natural gas (10%), and petroleum products and other fuels (5%), while only 29% came from renewable energy resources. in 2015, the specific emission Co 2 factor for electricity amounted to 535 g/kWh as a result of the extensive use of lignite and hard coal, with fuel Co 2 emission factors of 337 g/kWh coal and 407 g/kWh coal , respectively, and overall power plant efficiency below 40%. on the other hand, the share of final energy consumption for the supply of low-temperature heat in 2015 amounted to 30%, yet yielding only 18% of the total energy-related Co 2 emissions. in this sector, gas boilers, not coal, are the dominant technology. The emission factor for natural gas amounts to 201 g/kWh gas , leading to lower emis- sions when compared to the electricity sector. in this context, the changes in sources of electricity produc- tion have been a central topic for the last few years. for exam- ple, in July 2011, the german federal government declared a progressive reduction of nuclear power plants until a complete shutdown of all reactors by 2022. similarly, in october 2017, germany’s environment minister declared that a withdrawal from coal-fired power is not a question of whether it should be done but, rather, when and how it will be accomplished. While the phase out from nuclear power is final, the retirement of coal-fired resources has not yet been legally embodied and is the subject of controversial debate. at the same time, a further increase in installed capacity of renewable energy resources is expected. The government aims for a share of renewable elec- tricity generation of 40–45% in 2025 and 55–60% in 2035. The current development shows that the renewable energy

resource share of gross electric- ity generation in germany is con- stantly growing, starting from 6% in 2000 to approximately 31.6% in 2015. still, even if the power-supply sector fundamentally transforms, this alone will not be sufficient to achieve the ambitious climate pro-

tection targets shown in figure 1. The present situation shows that,

while the power sector is progres-

sively changing, the goals for other sectors will most likely be missed

(for example, doubling the annual renovation rate of buildings from 1 to 2%). To reduce ghg emissions by at least 80% and, wherever possible, 95% below 1990 levels, each one of the illustrated sectors (figure 2) will have to undergo

a substantial transformation itself, i.e., follow a strict decarbonizing strategy. To properly assess the transition of the energy sys - tem toward a climate friendly, reliable, and affordable supply of energy, it is necessary to consider all sectors as well as

their interactions.

Methodology

The remod-D model is a bottom-up energy system model developed at the fraunhofer institute for solar energy systems and assesses the transformation of national energy systems to a more environmentally friendly and low-carbon economy. The fundamental idea behind the model is the identification of a cost-optimized system structure in line with the set Co 2 reduction targets by taking into account the highly complex dependencies occurring between different energy carriers and sectors (sector coupling model). The objective is to dimension all system-relevant technologies in a cost-effective way, start- ing from 2015 until the target year 2050. The model calculations are based on a comprehensive database in which weather data as well as technological and economic parameters are specified for each year from 1990 to 2050. The first part of the database, from 1990 to 2014, describes technical parameters for all relevant components of the energy system. This includes installed capacities of power plants, storage facilities, heating technologies in build- ings, building stock (as well as its physical characteristics), number of vehicles, and transportation technologies. The sec- ond part, from 2015 to 2050, deals with assumptions regard- ing cost or performance projections of individual technolo- gies, technical restrictions (capacity limits per year), and other time-dependent characteristics. This information is essen- tial to determine the mix of generators, energy converters, and consumers that meet environmental goals at minimal cost.

3,000 2,500 27% 28% 28% 29% 29% 29% 30% 30% 31% 2,000 17% 21% 21%
3,000
2,500
27%
28%
28%
29%
29%
29%
30%
30%
31%
2,000
17%
21%
21%
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(a)

Distribution of Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions in 2015 Total = 754 Million Metric Tons

Low- Temperature Heat 18% Electricity Industrial 44% Processes 17% Mobility 21%
Low-
Temperature
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18%
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44%
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17%
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21%

(b)

Low-Temperature Heat Fossil FuelsIndustrial Process Heat Others Low-Temperature Heat Others   Electricity Mobility Fossil Fuels Mobility

Industrial Process Heat OthersLow-Temperature Heat Fossil Fuels Low-Temperature Heat Others   Electricity Mobility Fossil Fuels Mobility

Low-Temperature Heat Others 

 

ElectricityMobility Fossil Fuels Mobility Others

Mobility Fossil Fuels
Mobility Fossil Fuels

Mobility Fossil Fuels

Mobility Others

Industrial Process Heat Fossil Fuels

figure 2. The (a) development and share of the final energy consumption by sectors and (b) distribution of energy-related CO 2 emissions by sector in 2015. (Source data: BMWI Energy Data, 2017.)

here, the model distinguishes between two kinds of different structures: open and closed systems. When considering the technology of an open system, the model has the option to increase or decrease the specific penetration of the technology as long as it doesn’t violate the set expansion potential. for example, onshore wind tur- bines can be installed as long as the total installed capacity is below the cumulative technical potential (approximately 180 gW el in germany that, starting from 2015, is roughly 5 gW el per year). likewise, the model could also decide not to install any onshore wind turbines, such that the total amount of onshore wind power decreases over the years through retirements. While the installed capacity of each technology can increase or decrease in open systems (i.e., renewable energy resources, power plants, and thermal and chemical storage facilities), in closed systems, the technol- ogies are not limited by technical constraints but by others. for example, the cumulative deployment of technologies for space heating and domestic hot water supply is limited by the total number of buildings in germany. here, the assumption is that every building is equipped with one heat generator. Whenever this technology reaches the end of its expected lifetime, the model can decide whether to install a heat generator of the same type or choose a different one. This means that the model can optimize the share of each technology available within the closed system, but it can’t change the exogenously fixed number of technologies in each closed system. Conventional lignite and hard coal power plants, nuclear power plants, oil-fired power plants, gas turbines (gTs), com- bined heat and power (ChP) plants as well as gas-fired and steam power plants are implemented as generators. renewable

energy can be supplied in the model using wind turbines (onshore and offshore), photovoltaic systems, and hydropower plants. Biomass can be used either directly or after conversion into a secondary energy carrier. for example, wood can be burned in boilers to provide process heat for industrial applications and for the generation of low-temperature heat in the building sector. Biogas systems (gasification systems with subsequent synthesis into hydrogen, methane, or liquid fuels) and biodiesel systems are implemented as possible systems for the conversion of biomass. electrical energy-storage systems in the form of stationary and mobile batteries (in vehicles) or pumped-storage power plants are implemented as storage systems. hydrogen and thermal hot water storage systems in different orders of magnitudes are considered as well. energy demand is divided into four groups, according to the different fields of use: mobility, intrinsic electricity applica- tions, heat for buildings (residential, nonresidential, and indus- trial buildings), and process heat in the industry. The mobil- ity sector is mapped in detail concerning passenger cars and trucks, with seven vehicle classes each. The energy demand of aviation, shipping, and fuel-based railway traffic is considered in the balance, without temporal resolution. The basic elec- tricity load is mapped using load profiles based on the data of european transmission grid operators reduced by the weather- related electric load for heating systems. The load for heating systems is calculated model endogenously and is not included in the basic load. Table 1 summarizes the main components of the energy system considered in remod-D.

Comparative Findings and Discussion

in the following section, the results of three cost-optimized scenarios are analyzed in detail. The scenarios differ from

table 1. An overview of the most important system technologies considered in the model.

 

Plants for Conversion of Biomass Into

 

Mobility Concepts

Power Generation

Flexibility Options

Heat Generator

(Cars, Trucks)

Photovoltaics

Hydrogen

Stationary batteries

Electric heat pumps

Battery electric vehicles

Wind onshore

Methane

Batteries in vehicles

(brine, air)

Fuel cell electric

Wind offshore

Liquid fuels

Pumped storage plants

Gas heat pumps

vehicles

Run of river

Heat (boilers)

Power to H 2

Hybrid heat pumps

Internal combustion

Oil plant

Lignite plant

Electricity

(electrolysis)

Power to CH 4

(electric + gas)

Boilers (gas, oil, or

pellets)

engines (gas)

Internal combustion engines (liquid fuels)

Hard coal plant

Power to liquid (electrolysis + Fischer– Tropsch synthesis)

Small CHP units

Hybrid (battery +

GT

Fuel cells

fuel cell)

Combined

Thermal storage (heat pump, heating rod)

(hydrogen

Hybrid (battery + gas)

cycle GT

or methane)

Hybrid (battery +

Nuclear power

CHP units

Heating grid

liquid fuels)

plant

Geothermal heat

each other in terms of the set Co 2 reduction goals by 2050, which are 80, 90, and 95% reductions in relation to 1990. it is important to note that the energy system here is considered as an isolated island system to improve comparability with other involved energy system models. further assumptions will be documented in the final report of the regmex project.

Power Generation

figure 3 shows the cost-optimized development of the installed capacity for renewable energy sources, for each of the three scenarios from 2020 until the year 2050. The results show that

a significant increase of renewable energy resources is needed to

achieve the scenario reductions of energy-related Co 2 emissions.

in particular, photovoltaic systems and onshore wind turbines play

a key role when it comes to power generation. Their cumulative

technical potential for germany is assumed to be 320 gW el and 180 gW el , respectively, while it amounts to 40 gW el for offshore wind turbines. This yields a total technical potential for the princi- pal variable renewable energies of approximately 540 gW el .

in the first scenario (80% Co 2 reduction), this potential is exploited 61%; in the second (90% Co 2 reduction), it is exploited 84%; and in the third scenario (95% Co 2 reduction), it is exploited completely. in concrete terms, starting from today’s installed capac- ity of 91 gW el (nameplate wind and solar energy), this translates into a cumulative capacity in 2050 of 323, 440, and 540 gW el respectively. The simulation results suggest the following:

1) The rise of the cumulative installed capacity of re- newable wind and photovoltaic resources is inversely proportional to the total allowable Co 2 emissions bud- get, i.e., the lower the allowable Co 2 emissions in the energy system, the higher the necessary amount of en- ergy production from renewable resources. 2) The relationship between the Co 2 reduction target and the required installed capacity of renewable resources is not linear. moving from a 90% reduction to a 95% reduction requires the same incremental increase in in- stalled capacity (100 gW el ) as moving from an 80% re- duction to a 90% reduction.

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figure 3. The annual development of the installed capacity of variable renewable energy resources. (a) 80% reduction, (b) 90% reduction, and (c) 95% reduction.

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figure 4. Temporal development of the installed capacity of thermal power plants. Combined cycle GTs (CCGT), hydro- gen (H 2 ), gas/methane (CH 4 ). (a) 80% reduction, (b) 90% reduction, and (c) 95% reduction.

figure 4 shows the cost-optimized development of the installed capacity of thermal power plants for the three con- sidered scenarios. for all three scenarios, a shift from higher ghg-emitting power plants (lignite and hard coal) to lower emitting plants [Ch 4 -combined cycle gTs (CCgTs), Ch 4 -gT, and h 2 -gT] becomes clear. major differences are evident, however, in the different levels of installed capacity. The total cumulative installed capacity in the 95% reduction scenario in 2050 roughly doubles its initial value, while for the less-ambitious reduction targets (80 and 90%), the initial total installed capacity value doesn’t change as significantly (+16%, +45%). To better understand the illustrated development of the thermal power plant fleet, a closer look at the residual load is necessary. The residual load describes the electric load of the energy system minus the nondispatchable power generation, i.e., mainly variable renewable resources. This means that whenever the residual load is positive, deficiency occurs and power would need to be supplied from other sources. on the other hand, a negative value represents a surplus of renew- able electricity. in either case, a range of different flexibility options are required to balance the residual load. in particular, the increasing use of variable renewable re- sources shown in figure 3 leads to higher peak values of the residual load during the year and therefore to a higher need for flexibility options. Technologies like power storage are effec- tively used to balance small fluctuations of the residual load. When those fluctuations become more substantial, i.e., the power requirement is higher, technologies such as gTs and CCgT plants (for renewable power deficiency) or power conversion technologies such as power-to-gas or power-to-heat (for renew- able power surplus) are mainly operated. Table 2 summarizes the maximum and minimum values of the residual load in 2030 and 2050. Table 2 shows that the maximum renewable power defi- ciency (positive residual load) in 2050 for a 95% Co 2 reduc- tion target is almost 50% higher than the value of scenarios 1 and 2 (80% and 90%). This increase of renewable power deficiency corresponds with the illustrated development of

required installed capacity of thermal power plants shown in figure 4. figure 5 shows the cost-optimized development of differ- ent technologies for the conversion of electricity into syn- thetic fuels, i.e., hydrogen, synthetic methane gas, and liquid fuels. These technologies are used when renewable energy sur- pluses occur, which is why the installed capacity of synthetic fuel technologies increases proportionally with the resulting expansion of renewable energies shown in figure 3. While the absolute value of the residual load for electric- ity surplus in 2050 amounts to 186 gW el , in the case of an 80% reduction target, it increases to 256 gW el when consid- ering a reduction of 90% and to 328 gW el in the case of 95% (Table 2). This nonlinear growth in residual load explains why the cumulative capacity for power-conversion technolo- gies increases nonlinearly with more restrictive Co 2 reduc- tion targets (figure 5). The illustrated power conversion technologies can be op- erated as flexible loads to reduce eventual electricity surplus peaks, and they produce climate-friendly synthetic fuels.

table 2. Maximum renewable power deficiencies and surpluses in target years 2030 and 2050 for three considered CO 2 reduction targets. The increase of the peak values of the residual load corresponds with the increasing installed capacity of variable energy resources.

 

Power Deficiency) (in GW el )

Power Surplus (in GW el )

Reduction of Energy-Related Emissions

2030

2050

2030

2050

Scenario 1: −80% CO 2 (referred to 1990)

60

68

75

186

Scenario 2: −90% CO 2 (referred to 1990)

65

69

82

256

Scenario 3: −95% CO 2 (referred to 1990)

62

101

134

328

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figure 5. The annual development of the installed capacity of technologies for the production of synthetic fuels: (a) 80% reduction, (b) 90% reduction, and (c) 95% reduction.

These fuels become essential for the decarbonization of those energy consumers in the energy system, where a complete technological reorientation may be hard to achieve under today’s economic and political structures (for example, avia- tion or some industrial processes).

Consumption Sectors

figure 6 illustrates the scenario development of heating technologies for space heating and domestic hot water sup- ply. While the total number of heating technologies is directly linked to the exogenously set number of buildings in germany (boundary condition), the share of each tech- nology is a result of the cost optimization. note that every heating technology can be supplemented by hot water stor- age with solar heating and an electric heating rod. While gas and oil boilers clearly dominate today’s heat- ing technologies (approximately 70% of all installations), their share decreases in all three scenarios. The resulting level of reduction is directly linked to the considered Co 2 - reduction target. Concretely, in 2050 the share of oil and gas

boilers amounts to 21% for an 80% Co 2 reduction target, 9% for a 90% Co 2 reduction target, and roughly 4% for 95% Co 2 reduction target. electrical heat pumps exhibit the opposite trend. Their number increases when considering more ambitious climate protection goals. The results show that, in the third scenario (−95% energy-related Co 2 emissions), electrical heat pumps (air or brine) account for almost half of the heating technolo- gies in the energy system. These technologies bring two main advantages for the overall energy system. first, their coeffi- cient of performance allows an advantageous ratio between the required energy for operation and the provided heat (for detailed model analysis on heat pumps, see sterchele et al. 2017 in the “for further reading” section). This benefit in efficiency contributes to the decarbonization of the low- temperature heat supply. second, electrical heat pumps can be operated flexibly to balance the residual load in times of renewable production surpluses (negative residual load), for example, to charge thermal storage technologies. as shown for other power conversion technologies, here the need for

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Gas Heat Pump
Oil and Gas Boiler
Electric Heat Pump (Air, Brine)
Biomass Boiler
Heating Grid and Geothermal Heat
Heating
Technologies in Millions

figure 6. The annual development of heating technologies for space heating and domestic hot water supply. Heating grids are considered as a combination of CCGT, electrical heat pumps, gas boilers, thermal storage, and solar thermal technology. (a) 80% reduction, (b) 90% reduction, and (c) 95% reduction.

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(a)

(b)

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  Battery Hybrid H 2 -FC ICE Gas ICE Fuel

Battery

  Battery Hybrid H 2 -FC ICE Gas ICE Fuel

Hybrid

  Battery Hybrid H 2 -FC ICE Gas ICE Fuel

H

2 -FC

  Battery Hybrid H 2 -FC ICE Gas ICE Fuel

ICE Gas

  Battery Hybrid H 2 -FC ICE Gas ICE Fuel

ICE Fuel

figure 7. The annual development of vehicles (cars, trucks, and buses) for three considered scenarios: (a) 80, (b) 90, and (c) 95% CO 2 reduction targets. Boundary condition assumption: Trucks can’t be fully electrified.

flexibility options increases due to the increasing installed capacity of variable energy resources. The number of con- nections to a heating grid increases as well. heating grids in the model are represented as a combination of different technologies, which are CCgT, electrical heat pumps, peak load gas boilers, and solar-assisted heat and hot water tanks (including a heating rod). additionally, CCgT and micro- ChP plants can be operated flexibly by generating power in times of renewable power deficiency, while also charging hot water tanks. figure 7 shows the development of the road transportation sector. similar to the heating technologies, the total num- ber of vehicles is set exogenously, while the share of each driving concept results from the cost optimization of the model. The study assumed an upper limit for battery elec- tric trucks of 5%. assumptions for driving technology and range restrictions meant that only local electric transport for trucks was considered in the study. higher penetrations of electric transport could be considered under advanced tech- nology scenarios. note that the number of vehicles in fig- ure 7 includes both cars and trucks, and buses are included in the category of trucks. The development of the road transportation sector (fig- ure 7) shows similarities to the development of the heating technologies displayed in figure 6. in all three Co 2 reduc- tion scenarios, the share of today’s dominating transporta- tion technology [internal combustion engines (iCes) based on liquid fuels] decreases over the course of the years. a faster phase out of this drive technology would be required for more ambitious climate protection targets. simultane- ously, like heating technologies, a shift to electric transport technologies, such as battery electric vehicles, fuel cell elec- tric vehicles, or hybrid vehicles (a combination of iCes with battery), emerges. electric vehicles have a higher efficiency than iCes, and battery-electric vehicles can be used to charge and supply the electric distribution network based on the residual load. Therefore, they represent an alternative flexibil- ity option for the energy system.

methane-powered vehicles, iCes (gas), play a role in each scenario. at present, this driving technology is less expensive than electric vehicles and emits lower Co 2 emis- sions compared to vehicles based on liquid fuels. however, the results show that gas-powered vehicles will persist until 2050 in the first scenario, while being a transitional tech- nology in the other scenarios with more ambitious climate protection targets. figure 8 shows the technological development for the provision of process heat in the industrial sector. The parameterizing and calculation in the model distinguishes different temperature levels, allowing, for example, the use of electrical heat pumps only for temperature levels below 180 °C. The development of technologies for the provision of pro- cess heat shows a slower-acting switching behavior when compared to other consumption sectors (space heating + domestic hot water supply and road transportation). even though gas and oil-based technologies decrease when consid- ering more ambitious Co 2 reduction targets, they are clearly present in each scenario in the target year 2050. The share of electric technologies, such as electric heat pumps and elec- trode boilers, increases with increasing Co 2 reduction tar- gets, while remaining fairly constant in the case of an 80% Co 2 reduction target. at the same time, coal-fired boilers phase out in the last years of the energy transition path (for a 95% Co 2 reduction). industrial ChP stations become less important over time, beginning in the early simulated years. This trend partly arises from the model-assumption that all heating technologies in the industry sector are not operated responsively to grid condi- tions, i.e., operation in the industry sector will, for business reasons, remain independent from the residual load. This leads to multiple hours during the year when those plants produce electricity, although a surplus of electricity already occurs (negative residual load). This leads to unfavorable operating conditions for ChP stations, explaining why they are driven out by other technologies.

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CHP CH 4
El. Boiler
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Heat Pump
Solar-Assisted Heat
Biomass Boiler
Process Heat—Capacity in GW th

figure 8. The annual development of technologies for the provision of process heat. (a) 80% reduction, (b) 90% reduc- tion, and (c) 95% reduction.

Main Findings

To achieve the ambitious climate protection targets set by the federal government, the german energy system must be substantially transformed. To determine what such a trans- formation could look like from a technical point of view, we developed the remod-D model. our analysis shows that the system composition in the target year 2050 heavily depends on the allowed amount of energy-related Co 2 emissions. Concretely, the more ambi- tious the climate protection targets are, the higher the required installed capacity of renewable energy resources (mainly solar plants and onshore wind turbines). starting from today’s installed capacity in germany of approximately 100 gW el , an increase of 230–440 gW el is needed to achieve a reduc- tion of energy-related Co 2 emissions between 80 and 95%, respectively, by 2050 (figure 3). for a 95% reduction target, this means a cumulative installed capacity of approximately 540 gW el , translating into a required increase of 8–14 gW el of renewable energy resources per year. from today’s perspec- tive, a sluggish expansion of the electric grid, public protests against onshore wind turbines, and technological obstacles may make the carbon-reduction target seem too ambitious. however, it is important to note that the presented simulation results do not take into account electricity imports or exports from neighboring countries (in this study, the model used an isolated island system). overall, this assumption of isolation leads to higher required installed capacities of all considered energy conversion and storage technologies. a power supply dominated by renewable energy resources leads to more intense fluctuations of the residual load, i.e., higher peak values of electricity surplus or deficiency. There- fore, to harmonize power generation and consumption dur- ing each hour, a greater variety of flexibility options will be required. The main technologies in case of power deficiency are power storages (stationary batteries, batteries in electric vehicles, and pumped hydro storage) and thermal plants (gTs

and CCgT plants). alternatively, when electricity surplus occurs, flexible loads are needed, such as power storage and power technologies that convert electricity into synthetic fuels or heat. apart from the energy supply, to achieve the set Co 2 reduc- tion goals, the consumption sectors of the energy system need to be transformed. our results show that the more ambitious the climate protection targets are, the faster the required transi- tion from a fossil fuel-based demand to a demand dominated by electric technologies, i.e., the consumption sectors get pro- gressively electrified. This behavior is shown in figure 9 for three Co 2 reduction targets: 80, 90, and 95% compared to 1990 levels. The results suggest that, under given boundary conditions to achieve a cost-optimal solution, the electrification of the road transportation sector, i.e., cars and trucks as well as the supply of low-temperature heat (space heating and domestic hot water supply) should be prioritized over the industrial sector. figure 9 shows that the transformation of these two sectors should be addressed first, and their cost-optimal level of electrification in 2050 is far above the level for the industrial process heat supply in all three scenarios. While the heating technologies in the industry sector are not oper- ated responsively to grid conditions, battery-electric vehicles as well as electric heating technologies for space heating and domestic hot water supply can—to a certain extent—be operated flexibly and therefore contribute in balancing the residual load in times of power surplus or deficiency.

Ongoing Work

While the remod-D model considers many factors, the next steps in its development concern extending its geographi- cal scope (from the simulation of national to european energy systems) as well as examining detailed flexibility options within the energy system. This includes 1) a detailed descrip- tion of vehicle-to-grid communication under consideration of

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figure 9. The degree of electrification of the consumption sectors: low-temperature heat (space heating and domestic hot water supply), road transportation (cars, trucks, and buses), and industrial process heat for a reduction of energy- related CO 2 emissions of (a) 80, (b) 90, and (c) 95% below 1990 levels. The degree of electrification for the respective sectors includes low-temperature heat: electric heat pumps; deep geothermic and heat rods road transportation: battery electric vehicles, fuel cell electric vehicles; and partially hybrid vehicles industrial process heat: electric heat pumps and electrode boilers.

driving profiles, different shares of vehicle batteries for flex- ibility applications, and average discharge/loading capacities; 2) the assessment of the potential of smart communication technologies with regard to heat generators, i.e., smart meter rollout for heat pumps, heating rods, and ChP plants; and 3) the detailed depiction of ramping behavior of thermal power plants and power-to-gas technologies.

Acknowledgments

This work arose in the course of a Ph.D. thesis that is par- tially funded by the reiner lemoine-stiftung foundation. in addition, it has been partially supported by the german federal ministry of economics and Technology (BmWi) in the context of the project regmex (fkz: 0325874B): “model experiments and Comparisons of Pathways leading to a renewable energy-Based energy supply system” as a part of the 6th energy research programme.

For Further Reading

m. henning and a. Palzer. (2015, nov.). What will the en-

ergy transformation cost?. fraunhofer institute for solar

energy systems, germany. [online]. available: https://www

.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/en/documents/publications/

studies/What-will-the-energy-transformation-cost.pdf

a. Palzer. (2016). Cross-sectoral modeling and optimiza-

tion of a future german energy system taking into account energy efficiency measures in the building sector. Thesis,

fraunhofer institute for solar energy systems, germany, 2016. [online]. available: http://publica.fraunhofer.de/eprints/

urn_nbn_de_0011-n-408742-11.pdf

s. lechtenböhmer, T. Pregger, a. Palzer, h. C. gils, T.

Janßen, C. Krüger, D. schüwer, J. luhmann, m. Buddeke,

P. sterchele, C . Kost, and l . Brucker (2015). research pro -

gram description, regmex. [online]. available: http://www

h.

.forschungsjahrbuch-energie.de/downloads/forschungsjahrbuch-

2015.pdf

h. C. gils, “economic potential for future demand response

in germany: modelling approach and case study,” Applied En- ergy, vol. 162, pp. 401–415, Jan. 2016.

g. norman. (2015). interaktion ee-strom, Wärme und

Verkehr5. Tech. rep. [online]. available: https://www.iee

.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/iwes-neu/energiesystemtechnik/

de/Dokumente/Veroeffentlichungen/2015/interaktion_

eestrom_Waerme_Verkehr_endbericht.pdf

J. Welsch, u. fahl, m. Blesl, and K. hufendiek. (2014).

modelling of storage processes and power-to-X-Technolo- gies in Times-Paneu. Proc. Symposium Energieinnova-

tion. [online]. available: https://www.tugraz.at/fileadmin/

user_upload/events/eninnov2016/files/lf/session_a4/lf_

Welsch.pdf.

P. sterchele, a. Palzer, and h.-m. henning. (2017). The

role of heat pumps in the transformation of national energy systems: example germany. Proc. 12th Int. Energy Agency Heat Pump Conf. [online]. available: http://hpc2017.org/

wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Po.01-The-role-of-heat-pumps-

in-the-transformation-of-national-energy-systems-example-

germany.pdf

Biographies

Philip Sterchele is with the fraunhofer institute for solar energy systems, Breisgau, germany. Andreas Palzer is with the fraunhofer institute for solar energy systems, Breisgau, germany. Hans-Martin Henning is with the fraunhofer institute for solar energy systems, Breisgau, germany.

p&e
p&e

An

Electrified

Future

A as an energy source, electricity

benefits from a number of desirable characteris-

tics: it can be transported at nearly the speed of light

with transmission infrastructure, it has zero end-

use emissions, it is highly flexible and controllable,

it is now storable at rapidly declining costs, and it can

offer improved service quality relative to conven-

tional fuels. as such, electrification—the conver-

sion of previously fossil-fueled end-use processes

to electricity—has been identified as a key pathway to a clean, reliable, and secure energy future. elec- tric vehicles are the most widely cited application of electrification, but technology improvements in electrically driven devices for buildings and indus- trial end uses, including heat pumps for space and water heating needs, induction stoves for cooking, infrared or ultraviolet curing processes, and electric arc furnaces for process heating, could lead to more widespread electrification across these sectors. in this article, we report results from a recently published initial analysis conducted by the national renewable energy laboratory (nrel) that simu- lated widespread electrification from present day through 2050 in the united states. the study focused on 1) levels of technically achievable end-use electri- fication, 2) power-sector capacity expansion needs required to meet the growing demand for electricity

Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MPE.2018.2820445 Date of publication: 18 June 2018

34 ieee power & energy magazine

1540-7977/18©2018IEEE

By Trieu Mai, Daniel Steinberg, Jeffrey Logan, David Bielen, Kelly Eurek, and Colin McMillan

july/august 2018

©istockphoto.com/metamorworks

©istockphoto.com/metamorworks Initial Scenarios and Future Research for U.S. Energy and Electricity Systems under an
©istockphoto.com/metamorworks Initial Scenarios and Future Research for U.S. Energy and Electricity Systems under an
©istockphoto.com/metamorworks Initial Scenarios and Future Research for U.S. Energy and Electricity Systems under an

Initial Scenarios and Future Research for U.S. Energy and Electricity Systems

under an electrified future, 3) the impacts of electrification on electricity demand load shapes, and 4) the implications for economy-wide carbon dioxide (co 2 ) emissions. compared to a reference case, very high levels of electrification can lead to over twice the total electricity demand by 2050, with most of that in the transportation sector. such high levels of elec- trification, when combined with additional improvements in overall efficiency and grid decarbonization, can yield economy-wide carbon emission reductions of 72–75% by

2050 compared to 2005 levels. ongoing work to analyze the economic potential of electrification, the impact on electric- ity demand load profiles, and the ability to operate the grid reliably, given high levels of variable generation and smart demand responsiveness, will add important new insights on the potential future of electrification in the united states and beyond.

Background and Motivation

the u.s. economy relies on a diverse range of fuel sources, intermediate energy carriers, and end-use and supply tech- nologies. in 2015, the u.s. energy system consumed 98 qua- drillion British thermal units (quads) of primary energy, of which 39% (38 quads) was used for electricity production and the remainder consumed primarily through the direct combustion of fossil fuels in the other sectors, such as trans- portation, industry, and (commercial and residential) build- ings, as shown in Figure 1. this electricity generation and direct fossil consumption resulted in 5,259 million metric tons (MMt) of co 2 emissions from the 2015 energy sys- tem, comprising a large majority of all u.s. greenhouse gas (gHg) emissions. energy-related emissions represents about 80% of total gHg emissions on a co 2 -equivalent basis and about 90% of net gHg emissions when both sources and sinks are considered. in Figure 1, emissions from electricity generation are allocated to the sectors and end uses using the national and annual average emission factor. the electrification of end-use services coupled with the decarbonization of electricity generation has long been identified as a means to achieve, among other things, a low-carbon future. this low-carbon pathway would reduce both energy and carbon intensities for the economy along two primary dimensions. First, end-use electric technolo- gies are often more energy efficient, requiring less energy to provide the same service, than conventional fossil-based options. electric vehicles, for example, are typically three to four times more efficient than internal combustion engines in converting on-board energy into power at the wheels, although assessing differences in overall well-to-wheel efficiencies requires accounting for factors such as the electricity generation mix. similarly, an electric heat pump can warm interiors with three to four times the efficiency of a natural gas boiler. ultraviolet equipment for industrial curing processes can be over 80% more efficient than pro- cesses using combustion ovens. overcoming energy losses at the power plant, where over half of potential energy is lost as “waste heat” in conventional steam-turbine designs,

NonelectricityElectricity

Total 2015 Primary Energy Consumption (%)

NonelectricityElectricity

Total 2015 Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions (%)

100

75

50

25

0

100

75

50

25

0

Transpor tation 28 Quads Total 0 Quads Electricity

Industrial 31 Quads Total 10 Quads Electricity

Residential 21 Quads Total 14 Quads Electricity

Commercial 18 Quads Total 14 Quads Electricity

   

Other

Other

 

Other

Other

 

Water Heating

Commercial Light Trucks

 

Water Heating

Air

 

Space Heating

Space Heating

 

Paper

   

Freight Trucks

Mining

 
 

Refining

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Refrigeration

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Lighting

Other

 

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Mining

Paper

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Refining

 

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Space Heating

 
     

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(a)

Transpor tation 1,864 MMT Total 5 MMT Electricity

Industrial 1,438 MMT Total 494 MMT Electricity

Residential 1,041 MMT Total 721 MMT Electricity

Commercial 917 MMT Total 699 MMT Electricity

Other

Air

Other

Paper

Mining

Refining

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Mining

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Space Cooling

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Commercial Light Trucks

Freight Trucks

Light-Duty Vehicles

(b)

figure 1. The 2015 U.S. (a) primary energy consumption and (b) 2015 CO 2 emissions by sector and end use. [Data from “Annual Energy Outlook 2017,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, and figure design courtesy of Jadun et al. (2017).]

is key to delivering the full benefits of electrification. sec- ond, low-carbon options exist for electricity generation, with multiple studies suggesting the feasibility of replacing con- ventional electricity sources with low or zero-carbon alter- natives such as renewable energy, nuclear, and fossil fuel combined with carbon capture and sequestration. although the cost of such a transition and composition of the least- cost generation portfolio remains very much in debate, this suite of available low-emissions technology options provides alternatives to today’s electricity mix. other low- emission alternatives to conventional technologies that are not directly electricity based, such as hydrogen, biofuels, and natural gas (such as natural gas-fueled vehicles), also exist and are being developed. Beyond potentially reducing energy-related emissions, electrification can also offer other important social and eco- nomic benefits such as reduced air pollution-related health and environmental impacts, lower water demand, increased productivity and resilience, increased flexibility and control- lability of services like induction cooking or ductless air- sourced heat pumps, reduced reliance on imported oil and natu- ral gas, and a greater opportunity to export these increasingly abundant fuels. of course, there are also potential negative impacts such as higher capital costs, particularly associ- ated with new infrastructure investments, greater expo- sure to cybersecurity risks, and reduced economic activity in the fuel production sectors. electrification can substan- tially shape energy-system infrastructure development and consumption, which would affect a variety of stakeholders including electric utility planners, equipment manufacturers, fuel producers, building developers, and regulatory decision makers. Due to these potential widespread impacts as well as the emissions motivations described earlier, further research on the possibilities for and the costs, benefits, and impacts of widespread electrification is warranted. in this article we present a preliminary analysis that exam- ines widespread electrification in the u.s. energy sector. our analysis heavily leverages previous work published by research- ers at the nrel in 2017 (presented in the “For Further read- ing” section), which includes additional background material, descriptions, and references. in this research, we apply an exploratory scenario analysis approach under which electrifi- cation is rapidly advanced across all end-use sectors and esti- mate the impacts of achieving these electrification levels on load patterns, the evolution of the u.s. power system, and co 2 emissions. We also highlight our methodological approach, its shortcomings, ongoing work to address these shortcomings, and anticipated remaining research gaps.

Electrification Definition, Opportunities, and Technologies

We define electrification narrowly as the adoption of elec- tric-based technologies to replace technologies that are cur- rently fueled by nonelectric sources, typically fossil fuels, but also including other energy sources or carriers. this defini-

tion excludes projected second-order increases in electricity demands brought about by new or increasing service demands, such as new plug loads, the expansion of data centers, or increased indoor agriculture. instead, our definition focuses on existing services, such as driving, heating, and materials processing, which are currently being served by other energy sources or carriers. our prospective analysis also examines the electrification of projected increases in these service demands through population growth and other factors. using this definition and historical data for energy use and emissions, we identify opportunities where electrifica- tion can potentially have the biggest impact. Figure 1 shows that 2015 energy consumption and emissions are not spread uniformly across sectors and subsectors, and indicates the extent to which reliance on electricity varies significantly across sectors. in particular, the buildings sector is already heavily reliant on electricity (78 and 70% for commercial and residential buildings, respectively, on a primary energy basis) while electricity serves less than 1% of transporta- tion-related energy consumption. industry is intermediate between these extremes (32% based on primary energy). emissions follow qualitatively similar trends. in the absence of cost considerations, these observations suggest that the electrification potential, and corresponding emissions-reduction potential, is greatest in transportation relative to the other economic sectors. existing research on electrification has applied a greater focus on vehicle electrification than any other end use. in recent years, interest in transportation elec- trification has also been motivated by declining battery costs and increasing plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicle sales and development. Within each sector, electrification opportunities also vary by subsector and end use. For example, on-road vehicles are the source of about 80% of total transportation-related energy use and emissions. in fact, light-duty vehicles (includ- ing cars and trucks) by themselves are responsible for the majority of all transportation-related energy consumption and emissions. For light-duty passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid and fully electric options are currently available with increased sales, more model types, and heightened manu- facturer interest in recent years. electric options for larger commercial and freight uses are significantly more limited; initial development in these sectors has also occurred, par- ticularly in niche applications such as city buses and high- traffic corridors. although electricity is used to the greatest extent in the buildings sector overall, several end uses in buildings, such as space and water heating, currently rely much more heav- ily on the direct combustion of natural gas or other fossil fuels. recent improvements in electric air-source heat pumps allow them to deliver heat efficiently even at rela- tively low outdoor temperatures (approaching –18 °c) and may offer opportunities for more widespread use. split sys- tems that have one or more condensers outside serving mul- tiple interior air handlers can overcome building renovation

4.5 4.0 Electricity Fuel Oil 3.5 Natural Gas 3.0 Propane 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5
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Refrigeration
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Electrochemical
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Generation
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End Use Not Reported

figure 2. Final energy consumption in (a) residential buildings, (b) commercial buildings, and (c) industry sectors by end use and fuel. The data for industry exclude energy consumption as a nonfuel (feedstock). (Data from the EIA 2009 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, EIA 2012 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey, and EIA 2010 Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey.)

barriers associated with ducted systems. Heat pumps can provide heating and cooling services from a single capital investment and can be connected to water heating, clothes drying, and other building energy needs. cooking, which uses about as much energy as space cooling or water heating in the commercial sector, also relies primarily on natural gas burners. Highly efficient electric induction cooking is now available and offers speed, control, and safety features not available in gas burners. electric alternatives for heating and cooking are used in many u.s. regions; however, the adoption of efficient modern electric technologies is still relatively nascent compared to many regions of the world. the electrification potential for the industrial sector is much more difficult to assess due to the diverse number of end uses and industrial processes as well as the limited data and modeling tools available. setting aside the technologi- cal and economic challenges with electrification in indus- try, direct industrial combustion for process heating offers the greatest potential for emissions reductions in this sector. examples of industrial electric technologies include electric arc furnaces, infrared dryers, and heat pumps for process heating and building heating, ventilation, and air-condition- ing services. Figure 2 summarizes recent final energy con- sumption by fuel and end use in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors.

Determining the Technical Potential of Electrification

using the identified electrification opportunities from the historical energy use and emissions data, we develop a set of exploratory scenarios under which electrification is rapidly advanced. We start with a reference scenario, which follows a business-as-usual trajectory of electrification and service demand growth and is based on current and enacted policy and law. it does not include, for example, the clean Power Plan. We include a high-electrification scenario, which could be interpreted as reflecting technical potentials for electrification although, as we’ll describe below, even in this scenario electrification is not quite ubiquitous as we exclude some subsectors and consider how stock turnover can slow the pace of transport electrification. it is important to note that the development of this near-complete electrification scenario does not consider costs, consumer preferences, or other potential barriers to electrification. this scenario also does not capture potential major structural changes in the economy or disruptive changes in behavior or technology (e.g., autonomous vehicles). in other words, our scenarios do not reflect economic or market potentials for electrification, nor do they reflect predictions. For transportation, we use a modified version of argonne national laboratory’s Vision model to develop electrification scenarios of nonmilitary, on-road transport. Modifications include adjusting certain parameters and the addition of electric vehicle options for medium- and heavy-duty trucks; see steinberg et al. 2017 in the “For Further reading” section

for more details. Vision is a stock-rollover accounting tool for the u.s. vehicle fleet. using this tool, we generate electrification scenarios for light-duty vehicles and heavy- duty vehicles. in our high-electrification scenario, sales of conventional light-duty vehicles, using internal combus- tion engine drivetrains, are phased out completely by 2040. instead, new passenger car and truck sales are a combination of battery-electric, fuel cell, and, to a lesser extent, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. For light-duty trucks, we assume greater sales shares for hydrogen-based fuel cell vehicles to accommodate the heavier weight and larger loads. For heavy-duty vehicles, we assume a phase-out of conventional diesel and gasoline vehicle sales by 2050, at which point all new purchases are battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles. Battery-electric vehicles are used primarily for short-haul applications, and we assume fuel-cell vehicles are needed mostly for long-haul applications. Figure 3 summarizes the distribution of fuels used to serve the projected vehicle miles traveled across all transportation subsectors modeled for the reference and high-electrification scenarios. only recently have some analysts started considering viable electrified applications in long-distance trucking, shipping, and even air transport; future work is needed to assess these options in greater detail. our high-electrification scenario assumes 100% electri- fication in all end uses in residential and commercial build- ings. the full electrification technical potential is justified in this scenario as electric technologies exist to serve nearly all buildings end uses. in this scenario, space and water heating services are served predominantly by heat pumps and a limited share of electric resistance heaters. similarly, induction cook- tops replace traditional stovetops. this scenario design does not consider potential deployment challenges, including the slow turnover of building stock or retrofit schedules, the economic rationale for using heat pumps in cold climates where they are less efficient, consumer preference, and other technical chal- lenges with electrification for certain end uses or locations. For industry, where electrification potentials are more challenging to assess, we simply assume all conventional boilers are replaced with electric technologies by 2050. as shown by table 1, we assume nearly all process heating end uses rely 100% on various electric technologies by 2050 with the exception of process heating for iron and steel, which we assume is only 21% electrified by 2050. this measure of electrification refers to the fraction of total iron and steel energy use that is purchased electricity. the share of steel produced in electric arc furnaces in the united states is much higher than the share produced in the combustion- intensive blast furnace/basic oxygen furnace process. this share of steel produced via electric arc furnaces is antici- pated to grow under the scenario assumptions, but steel production routes are not explicitly modeled in the analysis. these assumptions are speculative and used to develop our high-electrification scenarios only. More detailed research is needed to consider whether electric technologies could

Reference High Electrification 5000 5000 4500 4500 4000 4000 3500 3500 HDV: Hydrogen 3000 3000
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figure 3. Vehicle miles traveled from 2010 to 2050 under the reference and high-electrification scenarios. LDV: light-duty vehicles; HDV: heavy-duty vehicles.

table 1. The industrial end uses and electric technologies selected for analysis.

 

Percent Electrified

Electrotechnology

Industry

End-Use Service

by 2050

Electrolytic reduction

Nonferrous metals, excluding aluminum

Process heating

100

Induction heating

Metal fabrication

Process heating

100

Electric boilers

All manufacturing industries

Conventional boiler use

100

Resistance heating and melting

Glass

Process heating

100

Direct arc melting

Iron and steel

Process heating

21

Industrial process heat pump

Food, pulp and paper, and chemicals

Process heating

100

cost-effectively serve processes with high-temperature and large energy demands. in addition, our analysis does not consider industrial equipment turnover, relative economics of electric and nonelectric technologies, and nonenergy ben- efits and impacts such as productivity and product quality. in addition to the high-electrification view, we also con- sider separate scenarios where significant increases in energy efficiency are achieved, in combination with high electrifica- tion, across all sectors. We refer to this as the high-combined scenario, in which transportation efficiency (in terms of miles per gallon of gasoline equivalent) is assumed to increase beyond u.s. federal vehicle efficiency standards even after the standards sunset. For buildings, we assume efficiency improvements in electric end-use devices from 2017 to 2050 at various rates ranging from 0.5%/year to nearly 2%/year. efficiency measures are assumed for services provided by new electric technologies as well as in other end uses includ- ing lighting, refrigeration, and other plug loads. For industry,

we simply assume an efficiency improvement of 0.8%/year. this estimate was developed by weighting the current oppor- tunity for state-of-the-art energy reductions identified by u.s. Department of energy energy bandwidth studies by their relative fraction of 2010 manufacturing primary energy use, assuming these reductions would be achieved by 2050. all remaining manufacturing industries not covered by the energy bandwidth studies were assumed to reduce energy use by 10% by 2050. these top-down sets of assumptions do not specify the efficiency measures to achieve these rates but, instead, rely on a wide range of measures such as vehicle lightweighting, building insulation improvements, and pro- cess improvements. Figure 4 shows annual electricity consumption estimated for the high-electrification and high-combined scenarios. under high electrification, annual electricity demand grows by 2.6%/year resulting in nearly 11,000 tWh of electricity demand by 2050. this growth rate is roughly in line with

High Electrification High Combined Electrification and Energy Efficiency 11,000 11,000 10,000 10,000 9,000 9,000
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figure 4. The reference and incremental electricity consumption from electrification by sector, 2010–2050.

historical growth rates during much of the 1900s and differs significantly from more recent growth (flat) and projected growth rate (0.7%/year) in our reference scenario (shown in gray). as shown in Figure 4, most of the incremental elec- tricity consumption growth is in the transportation sector through the increased use of electric and fuel cell vehicles. For the latter vehicle types, we assume, for simplicity, that hydrogen production occurs only through electrolysis, which because of the large share of fuel-cell vehicles and the low efficiency of electrolysis-based hydrogen production results in very large electricity requirements. in fact, in 2050 under the high-electrification scenario, about half of the incre- mental electricity consumption in transportation is used for electrolysis-based hydrogen production, whereas the ratio of vehicle miles traveled from direct electric vehicles to hydro- gen-based fuel-cell vehicles is 3.2 to 1. electricity demand growth in buildings and industry is also significant in the high-electrification scenario. as a result, in this scenario, 2050 u.s. electricity consumption is more than twice 2050 demand in the reference scenario. in the high-combined scenario, energy efficiency reduces electricity demand growth to 1.9%/year. in the buildings sector, the additional efficiency measures offset any incre- mental demand from electrification, while the effects of effi- ciency are less stark in industry and transportation. in total, 2050 electricity consumption in the high-combined scenario is about 8,000 tWh, still approximately 3,000 tWh greater than in the reference scenario. changes in electricity demand can have an impact on electricity supply, including capacity deployment and other infrastructure evolution. But the growth in annual electric- ity consumption reveals only part of the potential impacts; changes in consumption patterns throughout the year,

seasons, days, and hours play an important role for elec- tric system resource adequacy and, ultimately, reliability. resource adequacy refers to the ability to meet aggregate electrical demand and is usually considered met when there is sufficient firm capacity resources (primarily from the supply side but also including demand-side resources) to meet projected peak demands plus a reserve margin (~15%). resource adequacy is only one component of reliability but plays an important role in utility planning. changes in popu- lation and energy use, including new electrical loads from electrification, can impact the timing and magnitude of peak demands and affect supply-side planning. to demonstrate the effects of electrification on load shapes, we calculate the ratio of national peak-to-average demand in our scenarios (Figure 5). in the reference scenario, we assume limited

1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 Reference High Electrification 1.1 High Combined 1 2010
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figure 5. The peak-to-average demand ratio for the refer- ence, high-electrification, and high-combined scenarios.

We report results from a recently published initial analysis conducted by NREL that simulated widespread
We report results from a recently published initial analysis conducted by NREL that simulated widespread

We report results from a recently published initial analysis conducted by NREL that simulated widespread electrification from present day through 2050 in the United States.

changes to rate structures, end-use technologies, weather, and other demand-side changes. as a result, the peak-to-average demand ratio remains constant through time in this scenario, with peak load 70% higher than average load (59% load factor). in Figure 5, the “peak” is defined as the top 40 load hours. this simple definition does not capture all implications, as discussed later, but illustrates the large impact that electri- fication can play on load shapes. in contrast, the peak-to- average ratio decreases substantially through time in both the high-electrification and high-combined scenarios. By 2050, peak demand is less than 9–13% higher than aver- age demand in these scenarios (89–91% load factor). this result is driven in large part by our bounding assumption that electric vehicle charging and hydrogen production loads are highly flexible. specifically, we assume zero charging dur- ing the top 40 load hours of the year and that load associated with hydrogen production is completely flexible within a day. our implicit assumption is that rate structures incentivize smart charging and the existence of sufficient infrastructure to avoid vehicle charging during the peak hours and ade- quate hydrogen storage and other infrastructure exist to shift hydrogen production to nonpeak hours. given that load asso- ciated with hydrogen production represents approximately 50% of total annual transportation electricity consumption under this scenario (in 2050), the diurnal flexibility ascribed to hydrogen production results in highly flexible load in the vehicle sector. our analysis does not evaluate the costs to achieve this level of flexibility, which is highlighted as a future research need. Without intelligent policies and con- sumer behavior, the peak-to-average demand ratio is likely to remain higher than shown in the outer years of the analy- sis, with important implications for build-out and operation of the grid. How electrification drives electricity consumption pat- terns can have other impacts to electric system planning and operations beyond resource adequacy. For example, the flat- tening of demand profiles can have important implications for the amount and type of supply-side resources; flatter demands might drive the preference for technologies that provide energy resources over capacity resources (e.g., resources designed for efficient performance and low-cost energy but with higher capital costs; these have traditionally been referred to as base- load resources). in another example, changing demand profiles can impact renewable integration challenges and opportuni- ties. the capacity and energy values of wind and solar gen- eration are closely tied to the correlation (or lack thereof)

between variable generation profiles and demand. the amount of renewable curtailment can also be affected by how electri- fication impacts load profiles. Whether regulations, market designs, and rates enable electrification to support efficient grid evolution such as through greater demand-side participation is an important research area.

Electricity Supply-Side Evolution with Widespread Electrification

the impacts of u.s. electrification depend on how the demand side might evolve but also on the supply-side future of the electricity system. We develop various electricity sup- ply-side scenarios—responding to the demand-side changes envisioned—by employing the nrel regional energy Deployment system (reeDs) model. the model simulates the operation and expansion of the u.s. power system, including power plants, transmission, and storage from pres- ent day through 2050 by choosing the cost-optimal mix of technologies. (utility stationary storage, as opposed to stor- age in vehicles, is treated as a resource in the modeling.) the least-cost solutions found by the model are constrained to meet all regional electric power demand requirements (with and without electrification), planning and operating reserve requirements, technology resource constraints, and any pol- icy requirements. in all scenarios, we use technology cost and performance assumptions from the mid-cost projection of the nrel 2016 annual technology Baseline and refer- ence case fuel price assumptions from the eia 2016 annual energy outlook. Figure 6 shows the annual generation and installed capacity from four scenarios modeled using reeDs. in the reference scenario, which includes only current policies, demand for new capacity resulting from business-as-usual growth in load and end-of-life retirement of existing genera- tors is met predominantly by new wind, solar, and natural gas generation. total generation in 2050 under such a sce- nario is 5,300 tWh, of which about 33% comes from wind and solar (compared to about 7% in 2016), 28% from natural gas, and 22% from nuclear, hydropower, and other renewable technologies. While coal generation declines in the long run, it still provides about 17% of 2050 generation in this refer- ence scenario. on a capacity basis, we find 16 gW of average net annual additions of wind and solar capacity from 2017 to 2050 and about 9 gW of net annual natural gas capacity addi- tions, figures that are roughly in line with u.s. trends since 2010. in other words, without widespread electrification

and new carbon policies, power sector changes observed in recent years are projected to continue through 2050. Figure 6, in the second column, shows the impact of high electrification in isolation without any major targeted policy changes on decarbonization or efficiency in the electric sec- tor. not surprisingly, the incremental electrification-driven demand growth results in a corresponding increase in total generation, almost all of which comes from wind, solar, and natural gas technologies. any price elasticities of demand that might erode some of the incremental generation needs of electrification are ignored here. combined wind and solar

generation is estimated to be 4,400 tWh (42%) in 2050, exceeding current u.s. annual generation from all sources. natural gas-based generation comprises a nearly equivalent amount in 2050 (40%) with coal (8%) and other generation (10%) comprising the remainder. to meet these penetration levels, we estimate net average annual capacity additions of over 45 gW for wind and solar technologies from 2017 to 2050 and even greater rates during the latter years. com- bined with the 14 gW of net annual additions of natural gas capacity, high electrification is found to offer a formi- dable challenge, as well as opportunities, for infrastructure

Reference

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