Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Department of
Agriculture
Foreign
Agricultural
World Agricultural
Service
Circular Series
WAP 09-09
Production
September 2009
India’s total peanut production for 2009/10 is forecast at 5.2 million tons, down 1.6 million or 24
percent from last month and down 17 percent from last year. Despite improved rainfall in some
key peanut growing areas by the end of August, the USDA is forecasting slightly below-average
yield, at 0.96 tons per hectare, due to extended dry spells earlier in the summer during crop
establishment and development growth stages. India’s monsoon rainfall pattern has been erratic
this year with many regions receiving inadequate and uneven rainfall distribution. Cumulative
rainfall for the season is 25 percent below normal for the country as a whole. The low rainfall
has resulted in reduced sown area and lower potential yields, particularly in key peanut growing
regions in the south and northwest. By the end of August, planting progress reports indicated that
sown area was approximately 24 percent lower than last year. The area decline was mainly in
Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat, the nation’s two largest producers. (For more information, contact
Dath Mita at 202-720-1071.)
The USDA estimates Brazil’s 2009/10 soybean production at 62.0 million tons, up 2.0 million or
3 percent from last month and up 5.0 million or 9 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 22.5
million hectares, up 0.5 million or 2 percent from last month and up 0.8 million or 4 percent
from last year. The increase in forecast area for 2009/10 is attributed to higher soybean prices
and greater profit margins relative to corn. The greatest increase in soybean area is expected to
occur in the southern states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, where farmers will likely switch
from main-season corn to soybeans. The planting of irrigated soybeans will begin in Mato
Grosso on September 16, and the main rainfed soybean crop will be planted whenever sufficient
rain arrives between late September and December. By law, Brazilian farmers in most states
cannot start planting soybeans until after a 90-day Free Host Period (FHP) ends. The FHP has
been implemented in most states for the past several years as a way to slow the migration of
soybean rust during the dry season, which extends from June 15 through September 15. (For
more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134).
The USDA estimates 2009/10 Canada rapeseed production at 10.0 million metric tons, down 0.5
million or 5 percent from last month and down 2.6 million or 21 percent from last year. Area is
forecast at 6.2 million hectares, unchanged from last month but down 4 percent from last year’s
record level. Yield is estimated at 1.61 tons per hectare, 5 percent lower than last month and 17
percent below last year. The reduction in yield is attributed chiefly to poor crop conditions in
Alberta, where dryness, below-normal temperatures, and hail have negatively impacted the
2009/10 crop. Manitoba and Saskatchewan also experienced dryness and unfavorably cool
weather early in the growing season, but weather improved as the growing season progressed.
Rapeseed yields in these two provinces are expected to reach near trend levels. (For more
information, contact Arnella Trent at 202-720-0881.)
The USDA estimates 2009/10 Canadian corn production at 9.4 million metric tons, down 0.9
million or 9 percent from last month and down 1.2 million or 11 percent from last year.
Estimated area is unchanged from last month at 1.2 million hectares. Yield is forecast to decrease
to 7.83 tons per hectare, 9 percent below the 5-year average and 14 percent below last year.
Yield is estimated lower this year due to a late spring and cool weather in June and July that
slowed crop development. Recently, warmer weather has accelerated maturity but crop
development remains about one week behind average and could be vulnerable to damage in the
event of frost. (For more information, contact Arnella Trent at 202-720-0881.)
The USDA estimates Brazil’s 2009/10 corn production at 52.0 million tons, down 2.0 million or
4 percent from last month but up 2.0 million or 4 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 13.5
million hectares, down 0.5 million or 4 percent from last month and down 0.6 million or 4
percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.85 tons per hectare, up 0.30 tons per hectare or 8
percent from last year’s drought-ravaged crop. Corn area is expected to decrease in Brazil due to
higher soybean prices and greater profit margins in comparison to corn. The greatest decline in
corn area is expected to occur in the southern states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, where
approximately half of the nation’s main season crop is grown. Approximately 30 percent of last
year’s second-season area was planted to genetically engineered (GE) corn, and Brazilian experts
forecast 40 to 60 percent of this year’s corn area will be sown with GE seed. (For more
information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134).
The USDA estimates 2009/10 China corn production at 160.0 million tons, down 2.5 million or
1.5 percent from last month and down 3.5 percent from last year’s record crop. Area is estimated
at 29.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 0.1 million from last year. The
estimated yield of 5.42 tons per hectare is down 4 percent from last year but above the 5-year
average. Farmers reportedly shifted land from soybeans to corn in 2009 in response to higher
relative profits for corn and government policies that favored grain production. Estimated corn
yield was reduced this month due to drought in parts of northeast and central China in August, as
well as stormy conditions in parts of the North China Plain and southern China. According to the
Ministry of Agriculture, an estimated 4.8 million hectares of crops in the provinces of
Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Shanxi were affected by drought as of August
30. These provinces account for about 40 percent of China’s total corn output. Local officials
and crop analysts reported that the drought, which extended for more than a month, occurred
while corn and soybeans were in the critical reproduction stage and had a negative impact on
yields. Yield losses of 10 to 40 percent (year-to-year) were widely reported in the affected
region, with some hard-hit areas experiencing total crop failure. Scattered showers over the last
two weeks have partially eased the drought but arrived too late to boost yields. Also, some
officials are concerned that below-normal temperatures in September may lead to the premature
end of the growing season, thus lowering yields further. The crop is now in the filling/maturing
stage and harvesting will begin in mid-September. Drought conditions were also reported in parts
Argentina: Corn Production Estimated Lower Due to Weather, Price and Export Taxes
The USDA forecasts Argentina’s corn production for 2009/10 at 14.0 million tons, down 1.0
million or 7 percent from last month but up 1.4 million or 11 percent from last year. Area is
estimated at 1.9 million hectares, down 0.1 million or 5 percent from last month and down 0.35
million or 16 percent compared to last year. Yield is forecast at 7.37 tons per hectare, compared
to the record high of 8.04 tons per hectare in 2006/07 and the five-year average of 6.79 tons per
hectare. The current outlook for the 2009/10 crop is only marginally better than last year, when
corn suffered through an extended drought which severely lowered crop yields. Last year’s
harvest was the lowest in the last 13 years, since the 11.1-million-ton crop of 1995/96. Recent
high temperatures have depleted soil moisture across Argentina. Some eastern regions have
received enough rainfall to bolster soil moisture supplies in the short term but western and
central growing areas need more moisture in order to ensure proper germination and emergence
of corn over the next few months. With corn prices declining in Argentina and on the world
market, there is less incentive for farmers to plant corn in Argentina this year. High prices for
fertilizer, seed, and other inputs, in addition to continued high export taxes, also limit the
incentives to grow corn this year. (For additional information contact Dr. Denise McWilliams,
202-720-0107)
The USDA estimates European Union (EU) wheat production for 2009/10 at 138.5 million tons,
down 12.8 million or 8 percent from last year’s record crop, but above the five-year average of
135.2 million tons. Area is estimated at 25.6 million hectares, down 0.3 million hectares or 1
percent from last month and down 1.1 million from last year. Yield is estimated at 5.41 tons per
hectare, below last year’s record 5.67 tons per hectare but above the five-year average of 5.29
ton per hectare. The latest EU harvest reports indicate an increase in France of 1.6 million tons
over last month, to 39.4 million (compared to 39.0 million last year). The crop benefitted from
late-season rainfall, which occurred during the grain-fill stage of wheat development, increasing
kernel size and improving yields. Meanwhile, Germany’s crop was lowered 1.4 million tons to
25.1 million, based on initial harvest results. This year’s German crop is 0.9 million tons below
the 2008/09 harvest, but remains 1.4 million tons above the five-year-average. Denmark’s area
was revised up by 0.15 million hectares, resulting in a 0.9-million-ton increase in production and
an estimated record harvest of 5.6 million tons. Smaller changes include a 0.2-million-ton
increase in the Czech Republic, to 4.4 million; a 0.2-million-ton increase in Romania, to 5.5
million; and a 0.2-million-decrease in Poland, to 9.2 million. In addition, Spain’s crop, which has
suffered from drought throughout the season, was revised up 0.3 million tons, to 5.0 million,
compared to the five-year average of 5.9 million ton. (For more information, contact Bryan
Purcell.
The USDA estimates Russia wheat production for 2009/10 at 56.5 million tons, up 1.0 million or
2 percent from last month but down 7.2 million or 11 percent from last year’s record crop.
Barley production is estimated at 16.0 million tons, down 1.0 million or 6 percent from last year
and down 7.1 million or 31 percent from last year. The revised production estimates are based
on data released by Rosstat (the State Statistical Committee of Russia). Wheat area is estimated
at 28.8 million hectares, up 2.1 million from last year, and barley area is down 0.5 million
hectares, to 9.1 million. Spring wheat accounts for slightly over half of total Russian wheat area,
and spring barley for nearly 95 percent of the barley. Estimated yields for both wheat and barley
are virtually unchanged from last month but down substantially from last year’s record levels.
Wheat yield is estimated at 1.97 tons per hectare, down 18 percent, and barley at 1.76 tons per
hectare, down 27 percent. Outstanding conditions for spring grains in the Siberian District will
compensate in part for drought in the Volga and Ural Districts. Rosstat reported in mid-August
that estimated grain losses, due chiefly to drought, stand at 1.86 million hectares compared to
0.15 million last year. Satellite-derived vegetative indices indicate that crop conditions in the
drought-affected regions have been significantly worse than normal throughout the growing
season while spring grains in Siberia have benefited from excellent weather for the second
consecutive year. The Siberian District accounts for about 25 percent of the country’s wheat and
15 percent of the barley. The Volga and Ural Districts together account for 35 percent of the
wheat and over 40 percent of the barley. Harvest reports from Rosstat indicate that wheat output
in the Southern District was essentially complete by mid-August, with output down over 15
percent from last year. The Southern District produces nearly two-thirds of Russia’s winter
wheat and about 40 percent of total wheat output. The grain harvest in Siberia is underway but
the pace is considerably behind average. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture,
only 15 percent of the sown area had been harvested by September 8, compared to the average of
40 percent. Late harvest can increase the likelihood of harvest losses in the event of unfavorable
weather, especially in the Siberian District. (For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at
202-690-0143.)
India: Estimated Cotton Production Reduced Following Hot, Dry August Weather
India's 2009/10 cotton production is forecast at 24.0 million bales, down 1.0 million or 4 percent
from last month, but up 1.5 million or 7 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 9.9 million
hectares, up 0.25 million or 3 percent from last month, and up 0.5 million or 6 percent from last
year. Yield is forecast at 528 kilograms per hectare, down 6 percent from last month, but up 1
percent from last year. The 2009/10 monsoon pattern has been characterized by inadequate and
uneven rainfall distribution, with seasonal precipitation 20 percent below normal in key cotton-
growing regions of central India. Cumulative rainfall within 20 percent of the long-term average
is not considered to be especially unusual, however, and conditions in cotton growing areas are
relatively favorable. Favorable weather enabled sowing to progress rapidly in July. According
to in-country reports, cotton sowing progress is currently 12 percent above this time last year. In
particular, area is up in the states of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Karnataka.
Although sown area has increased and the crop is progressing well, there were concerns in
August that the hot and dry conditions in some major cotton producing regions would lower
yield prospects. (For additional information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-1071.)
Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download
an order form at http://www.ntis.gov/products/specialty/usda/fas_a-g.asp, or call NTIS at
1-800-363-2068.
The FAS International Production Assessment Branch prepared this report. The next issue of
World Agricultural Production will be released after 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time, October 9, 2009.
Conversion Table
Cotton = MT * 4.592917
Rice = MT * 22.04622
GENERAL INFORMATION
Division Director Derrick Williams 202-690-0131 derrick.williams@fas.usda.gov
Deputy Director Tom St Clair 202-720-0873 tom.stclair@fas.usda.gov
Remote Sensing Specialist Robert Tetrault 202-720-1071 robert.tetrault@fas.usda.gov
USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel 202-720-1280 bethel@fas.usda.gov
Program Analyst Mary Jackson 202-720-0886 jacksonma@fas.usda.gov
Agricultural Economist Paul Provance 202-720-0873 paul.provance@fas.usda.gov
7
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis September 2009
Table 01 World Crop Production Summary
Million Metric Tons
World Total North North North EU-27 Former Former Asia Asia Asia Asia Asia South South Selected Selected Selected All
- Foreign America America America - Soviet Soviet (WAP) (WAP) (WAP) (WAP) (WAP) America America Other Other Other Others
Commodity
none none United Canada Mexico none Russia Ukraine China India Indo- Paki- Thai- Argen- Brazil Aus- South Turkey none
- - States - - - - - - - nesia stan land tina - tralia Africa - -
Wheat
2007/08 611.0 555.2 55.8 20.1 3.6 120.4 49.4 13.9 109.3 75.8 nr 23.3 nr 18.0 3.8 13.8 1.9 15.5 86.3
2008/09 prel. 682.3 614.2 68.0 28.6 4.0 151.3 63.7 25.9 112.5 78.6 nr 21.5 nr 8.4 6.0 21.5 2.1 16.8 73.3
2009/10 proj.
Aug 659.3 599.9 59.4 22.5 4.3 136.3 55.5 19.5 114.5 80.6 nr 24.0 nr 8.5 5.7 23.0 1.7 17.8 86.0
Sep 663.7 604.3 59.4 22.5 4.3 138.5 56.5 20.0 114.5 80.6 nr 24.0 nr 8.0 5.5 23.0 2.0 17.8 87.1
Coarse Grains
2007/08 1,077.2 727.4 349.9 27.8 30.8 135.9 29.3 14.6 159.1 40.6 8.5 3.6 3.9 27.0 61.3 11.5 13.7 9.5 150.2
2008/09 prel. 1,100.2 774.1 326.1 27.2 32.3 161.6 40.7 26.2 173.2 39.0 8.7 3.6 4.3 16.4 52.6 11.1 12.5 10.3 154.5
2009/10 proj.
Aug 1,091.6 751.7 339.8 22.3 30.1 149.2 31.4 22.0 169.5 40.0 9.0 3.6 4.3 20.5 56.5 11.6 11.0 10.4 160.4
Sep 1,090.0 745.1 345.0 21.8 29.9 149.3 30.4 22.5 167.0 40.0 9.0 3.6 4.3 19.5 54.5 11.6 11.0 10.4 160.4
Rice, Milled
2007/08 433.4 427.0 6.3 nr 0.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 129.9 96.7 37.0 5.7 19.3 0.8 8.2 0.0 nr 0.4 126.6
2008/09 prel. 444.9 438.3 6.5 nr 0.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 134.3 99.2 38.3 6.3 19.4 0.8 8.6 0.1 nr 0.4 128.6
2009/10 proj.
Aug 433.5 426.7 6.8 nr 0.2 1.9 0.5 0.1 135.1 84.0 37.6 6.2 20.0 0.9 8.8 0.1 nr 0.4 130.8
Sep 433.5 426.5 7.0 nr 0.2 1.9 0.5 0.1 135.1 84.0 37.6 6.0 20.0 0.9 8.8 0.1 nr 0.4 130.8
Total Grains
2007/08 2,121.6 1,709.6 412.0 47.9 34.6 258.1 79.2 28.6 398.3 213.1 45.5 32.6 23.2 45.8 73.4 25.4 15.6 25.3 363.1
2008/09 prel. 2,227.3 1,826.7 400.6 55.8 36.5 314.5 104.9 52.2 420.0 216.7 47.0 31.4 23.7 25.6 67.1 32.7 14.6 27.5 356.4
2009/10 proj.
Aug 2,184.3 1,778.3 406.0 44.8 34.7 287.4 87.4 41.5 419.1 204.6 46.6 33.8 24.3 29.9 71.1 34.6 12.7 28.6 377.2
Sep 2,187.3 1,775.9 411.4 44.3 34.4 289.7 87.4 42.5 416.6 204.6 46.6 33.6 24.3 28.4 68.9 34.6 13.0 28.6 378.3
Oilseeds
2007/08 391.6 309.1 82.5 12.4 0.6 24.5 6.9 6.0 53.4 34.0 8.2 4.7 0.6 51.7 64.2 1.4 1.3 1.8 37.5
2008/09 prel. 394.3 305.4 89.0 16.0 0.7 27.0 8.8 10.2 57.9 33.7 9.0 5.0 0.6 35.7 59.5 2.5 1.4 1.6 35.7
2009/10 proj.
Aug 422.6 328.1 94.5 14.3 0.7 27.6 8.5 8.4 56.7 36.3 9.0 5.0 0.7 55.9 62.4 2.5 1.4 1.6 37.3
Sep 422.7 326.9 95.9 13.6 0.6 28.0 8.5 8.4 56.5 33.2 9.0 5.0 0.7 55.9 64.4 2.5 1.4 1.6 37.6
Cotton
2007/08 120.5 101.3 19.2 nr 0.6 1.7 nr nr 37.0 24.6 0.0 8.9 0.0 0.7 7.4 0.6 0.0 3.1 16.5
2008/09 prel. 106.7 93.9 12.8 nr 0.6 1.2 nr nr 35.8 22.5 0.0 9.0 0.0 0.6 5.5 1.5 0.0 1.9 15.1
2009/10 proj.
Aug 105.9 92.7 13.2 nr 0.4 1.0 nr nr 33.5 25.0 0.0 9.2 0.0 0.7 5.4 1.8 0.0 1.7 13.9
Sep 105.1 91.6 13.4 nr 0.4 1.0 nr nr 33.5 24.0 0.0 9.2 0.0 0.7 5.4 1.8 0.0 1.7 13.9
World Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel)
Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and rapeseed)
Oilseed, Copra
Philippines 2.50 2.52 2.52 2.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Indonesia 1.50 1.60 1.60 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
India 0.70 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vietnam 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mexico 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Papua New Guinea 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Thailand 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sri Lanka 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mozambique 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cote d'Ivoire 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
World 5.72 5.88 5.88 5.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Oil, Palm
Indonesia 18.00 19.50 20.75 20.75 0.00 0.00 1.25 0.06
Malaysia 17.57 17.70 18.50 18.50 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.05
Thailand 1.05 1.20 1.30 1.30 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.08
Nigeria 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Colombia 0.83 0.80 0.93 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.16
Papua New Guinea 0.38 0.40 0.44 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.10
Ecuador 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cote d'Ivoire 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Costa Rica 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Congo (Kinshasa) 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
World 40.99 42.76 45.08 45.08 0.00 0.00 2.32 0.05
The table below presents a 28-year record of the differences between the September
projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example,
changes between the September projection and the final estimate have averaged
9.2 million tons ( 1.7 percent) and ranged from -30.7 to 13.1 million tons. The
September projection has been below the final 17 times and above the final 11 times.
COTTON
World 3.4 3.1 -12.6 9.5 18 10
U.S. 5.3 0.9 -2.3 2.4 16 11
Foreign 3.7 2.8 -11.2 9.8 18 10
UNITED STATES -------Million bushels-------
CORN 3.8 318 -846 885 19 9
SORGHUM 4.7 28 -69 81 13 14
BARLEY 3.6 12 -29 36 11 17
OATS 7.1 13 -19 44 4 23
1/ The final estimate for 1981/82-2007/08 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing
year.
2/ May not total 27 if projection was the same as the final.
3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain.