LITERATURE REVIEW

Water shocks may lead to social conflict via their effects on resource competition, poor
macroeconomic outcomes, and reduced state capacity. (Hendrix & Salehyan 2012: 36)

In the context of resource scarcity, armed conflict does nothing to increase the supply of resources
and may indeed diminish it. Therefore, conflicts arise over the distribution of resources rather than
their absolute level, and distributional issues are inherently part of a political bargaining process.
(Hendrix & Salehyan 2012: 37)

Resource availability: as water stores decline, consumers may come into conflict with one another
over access to wells, riverbeds, and the like. Water is a major input for agricultural producers and
pastoralists. Thus, farmers and herders may come into conflict over water rights and access. In
addition, rainfall shortages exacerbate the encroachment of deserts into formerly productive land
and can lead to increased competition over cropland and pastures. (Hendrix & Salehyan 2012: 37)

Migration: as livelihoods in affected areas come under stress, many will opt to migrate to urban
areas in search of alternative work. Migration – both within countries and across national boundaries
– can lead to intensified competition over jobs, housing, and other resources. It can also lead to shifts
in ethnic settlement patterns, which may intensify intercommunal conflict. Migration can create
friction between locals and new arrivals. (Hendrix & Salehyan 2012: 38)

Economic development: Rainfall deviations can present an enormous human and financial toll on
developing economies and government resources. Displacement, loss, crop failure, etc., associated
with water scarcity and overabundance, can hurt overall economic productivity. General economic
malaise may in turn lead to civil conflict and social disorder. (Hendrix & Salehyan 2012: 38)

Sustained drought is likely to affect economic activity and population through migration patterns.
These are in turn linked to conflict and, thus, could mediate the local effect of drought on conflict. …
Low levels of absolute income predict the occurrence of political violence. (Von Uexkull 2014: 21)

Climate is never the only determinant of political violence (premise). Climate’s influence is mediated
via other drivers of conflict such as resource availability, political unrest and economic pressures.
Different types of conflicts have alternate sets of instability determinants and, hence, will have
distinct relationships (if any) with climate variability and change. THIS SECTION FOCUSES ON THE SET
OF INSTABILITY DETERMINANTS ASSOCIATED WITH COMMUNAL CONFLICT. (Raleigh & Kniveton
2012: 52)

Resource availability: Previous researchers have noted that communal violence revolves around
environmental and livelihood issues (livestock, grazing land, water access). Turner finds that in most
poor rural communities, conflicts can be interpreted as resource-related, but ‘conflicts over
resources’ are produced from a set of broader processes of change that vary within specific historical
contexts. Therefore, the focus on resources is superficial, as these struggles reflect broader social
tensions (with ethnic dimensions) between and within social groups. Attacks invite retaliation and
many of the ethnic disputes appear to be cyclical. These conflicts, and the migrants they create, are
often invisible to governments and conflict researchers (USE FOR METHODOLOGY WHEN NOTING
THE LACK OF CONFLICT DATA). (Raleigh & Kniveton 2012: 53).

Many studies of civil war and environmental factors reiterate that the ‘political and economic
characteristics’ of countries are the strongest indicators of civil war risk and that environmental
change might be best analyzed for its marginal influences. (Raleigh & Kniveton 2012: 54).
Raleigh & Kniveton test whether the relationship between environmental change and conflict is
dependent upon the mediating conditions of demography, poverty and state capacity (55). … Raleigh
& Hegre (2009) found that local population and distance measures were critical in explaining the
geography of conflict in Central Africa, while several studies have confirmed the importance of
population on the national level. … As low and variable GDP is one of the strongest indicators of civil
war risk on the national level, it is equally likely that poverty creates grievance and opportunity-
seeking on the local level. (Raleigh & Kniveton 2012: 57)

Environmental change does not undermine human security in isolation from a broader range of
social factors. These include, among other things, poverty, the degree of support (or conversely
discrimination) communities receive from the state, their access to economic opportunities, the
effectiveness of decision making processes, and the extent of social cohesion within and surrounding
vulnerable groups. … The risks of climate change to social systems is as much about the
characteristics of those systems as it is about changes in environmental systems (Barnet & Adger
2007: 641).

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

The term “group competition” is commonly used if two or more groups try to limit each other’s
access to scarce resources or positions. (9) … Competition further implies that the disputed resources
(and positions) are “scarce” and that their access and attainability are limited. (10) “Scarcity” can be
manipulated. As a result of existing mechanisms of allocation and distribution in a particular society,
one and the same resource may be abundant for some members of society, scarce for some others,
and inaccessible for the rest. (10) (Hoetink 1975)

Resource competition between ethnic groups occurs because “ethnic groups are sociocultural
entities which, while inhabiting the same state, country, or economic area, consider themselves
biologically, culturally, linguistically, or socially distinct from each other and most often view their
relations in actual or potentially antagonistic terms. (131) (Skinner 1975).