Thayer Consultancy Background

Brief:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
United States: Free and Open
Indo-Pacific Strategy
Carlyle A. Thayer
August 23, 2018

We request your assessment of the following issues in advance of a major
conference on the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy to be held in Hanoi.
Q1. The Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy was first mentioned by the Japanese
prime minister and it attracted international attention when US President Donald
Trump backed the idea at the APEC Summit in Vietnam in 2017. What exactly does
the nebulous phrase Free and Open Indo-Pacific mean and can the Indo-Pacific
concept come to fruition?
ANSWER: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo defined what the Trump Administration
meant by the Free and Open Indo-Pacific when he addressed the U.S. Indo-Pacific
Business Council on 31 July this year. According to Pompeo, a free Indo-Pacific is a
region where all countries are able to protect their sovereignty against coercion by
another country. An open Indo-Pacific is a region where all countries have
unfettered access to the seas and oceans and where territorial and maritime
disputes are resolved peacefully. Finally, open also means “fair and reciprocal trade,
open investment environments, transparent agreements… and improved
connectivity.”
The term Indo-Pacific is a framework for viewing a network linked by trade, political-
diplomatic and defence-security networks. In other words, the Indo-Pacific is a
strategic concept. It already exists de facto in the view of Japan, India, the United
States and Australia. All are members of the East Asia Summit, ASEAN dialogue
partners, and the ASEAN Regional Forum (which has additional members from South
Asia – Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka).
Q2. What are impacts of Free and Open Indo-Pacific on the countries in the region?
ANSWER: There are two major implications of the Trump Administration’s Free and
Open Indo-Pacific. First, the United States will pursue bilateral rather than
multilateral “fair and reciprocal” trade agreements. Second, the U.S. will provide
funding for “high-quality infrastructure investment that promotes economic growth”
through international financial institutions such as the World Bank and Asian
Development Bank as well as encourage the private sector to invest in regional
infrastructure.
This means that the United States will not re-join the Trans-Pacific Partnership 11
nor support the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.
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In defence and security terms, the United States National Security Strategy commits
the U.S. to develop a “networked security architecture capable of deterring
aggression, maintaining stability, and ensuring free access to the common domains.”
In other words regional states will come under political and diplomatic pressure to
follow United States leadership.
Q3. What does Vietnam stand to gain in the Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy?
ANSWER: Economically, Vietnam and the United States have already indicated they
are willing to negotiate a “fair and reciprocal” bilateral trade agreement. Vietnam
and the United States also are involved in discussions related to U.S. tariffs on
shrimp, catfish and steel as well as market economy status.
Vietnam has been identified in the U.S. National Security Strategy and the U.S.
National Defense Strategy as a prospective strategic partner.
Vietnam has and will continue to receive high-level attention by the Trump
Administration. For example, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc was the first head of
government to meet with President Trump at The White House. President Trump not
only attended the APEC meeting in Da Nang, but made an official visit to Hanoi after.
Both the Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
have visited Vietnam. Vietnam hosted the first ever visit by a U.S. aircraft carrier, the
USS Carl Vinson, since reunification.
Vietnam will have an increased opportunity to work with the United States when its
become ASEAN Chair in 2020 and a non-permanent member of the UN Security
Council a year after that.
Q4. South China Sea connects the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. How do you
assess the importance of the South China Sea in the Free and Open Indo-Pacific
strategy?
ANSWER: The concept of the Indo-Pacific Region gives recognition to the growing
importance of sea lines of communication (SLOC) from the Persian Gulf across the
India Ocean through the South China Sea to Northeast Asia and the Pacific Ocean.
More heavy tankers loaded energy (oil and natural gas), container ships, and military
vessels and aircraft will traverse these SLOCs. The South China Sea is in the centre of
this maritime network and it is vital for the United States and other maritime powers
that there is freedom of navigation and overflight and that the South China Sea
remain stable and peaceful.
Q5. What do you think about the role of ASEAN in the Free and Open Indo-Pacific
strategy?
ANSWER: ASEAN members have not yet decided how to respond to the Trump
Administration’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific concept. The major concern is that it
could undermine and marginalize ASEAN centrality in regional affairs, especially
regional security affairs. On the other hand, both the U.S. National Security Strategy
and National Defense Strategy support ASEAN centrality.
The ball is now in ASEAN’s court. Does it become more proactive or does it become a
bystander?
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The push by the Trump Administration to provide funding for high-quality

infrastructure is meant as an alternative to China’s Belt and Road initiative, including
its Maritime Silk Road. This has positive and negative features. On the positive side,
ASEAN states will have greater choice in funding their development needs. On the
negative side, ASEAN states could find themselves in the middle of rivalry between
Beijing and Washington.
6. At the ASEAN-US Ministerial Meeting in Singapore recently, US Secretary of State
Mike Pompeo announced a 300 million USD pledge in funding for security co-
operation for the Indo-Pacific region. Before that, US pledge 113 milliion USD in
Indo-Pacific Economic Vision. Do you have any comparison with Chinese Belt and
Road Initiative?
ANSWER: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) covers a much wider geographic area
than the Indo-Pacific, it includes the Eurasian landmass, the coast of east Africa and
Oceania. It is estimated that China’s BRI initiative comes to one trillion U.S. dollars in
funding. This makes the U.S. offer of a total of U.S. $413 million economic and
security aid look anemic. U.S. $300 million in security aid mush be shared between
four, five or more countries. This does not amount to much.
Secretary Pompeo said that the $113 million was a down payment implying more
would follow. As Pompeo noted, only the private sector has the vast sums of money
to invest to meet the region’s infrastructure needs and the U.S. government would
encourage private businesses to become involved.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “United States: Free and Open Indo-Pacific
Strategy,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August 23, 2018. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.