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RREEF Research

February 2011 Liquefied Natural Gas Market in Europe

Table of Contents: What is Liquefied Natural Gas?


What is Liquefied Natural Infrastructure funds are increasingly targeting energy investments amid rising worldwide
Gas? ........................................ 1 demand for energy. World energy consumption is expected to increase by 49% from 2007 to
2035.1 Specifically, electricity is the fastest growing form of end-use energy consumption.
Structure of the LNG Value
Natural gas is an important fuel for electricity generation and is less expensive than oil as a
Chain ....................................... 1
primary energy source. Global natural gas consumption is expected to increase by 1.3% per
LNG Supply in Europe ............. 2 year on average, from 108 trillion cubic feet in 2007 to 156 trillion cubic feet in 2035 and use in
the electric power sector increases by 1.6% per year.2
LNG Demand in Europe ........... 6

Conclusion ............................... 7 Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is natural gas that is stored and transported in liquid form at a
temperature of -162o C. Liquefying natural gas provides a means of moving it long distance
when pipeline transport is not feasible. LNG takes up 600 times less space than regular natural
gas at ambient temperature and pressure, which makes it easier to store than natural gas and
efficient to transport over long distances.

Natural gas is turned into a liquid using a refrigeration process in a liquefaction plant. During
the liquefaction process, water and other substances such as mercury, carbon dioxide and
heavier hydrogen are removed from the wet gas. As a result, LNG has higher methane content
and is considered “cleaner” than pipeline gas.3 Natural gas can be transported by specially
Prepared by: designed cryogenic sea vessels (LNG carriers) or cryogenic road tankers. Afterwards, LNG is
heated and made gaseous again in the regasification plant. Storage capacity is vital in these
Stella Yun Xu
plants to cover supply or demand disruptions. Finally, large compressors are used to pump the
Assistant Vice President
San Francisco gas into the pipelines.
USA
(415) 262-7715
stella-yun.xu@rreef.com
Structure of the LNG Value Chain
LNG projects are among the most expensive energy projects. LNG plants typically cost more
than comparable energy projects for a number of reasons, including remote locations, strict
design and safety standards, large amounts of cryogenic material required, and a historic
tendency to overdesign to ensure supply security. Estimates of LNG plant costs are difficult to
Production by: pinpoint since costs vary widely depending on location and whether a project is greenfield or
Michelle Woods expansion of an existing plant.4 The high level of complexity and formidable costs associated
with the setup of the LNG value chain often lead to long-term contracts and considerable
vertical integration within the industry. As such, most LNG projects are highly dependent on
the successful execution of all the elements in the value chain.5

Exhibit 1 shows the allocation of costs within a LNG supply chain. Within the cost structure, the
largest component is the liquefaction plant where significant economies of scale can be
achieved. A large portion of capacity expansion is expected to come through expansion of
existing liquefaction plants in the coming years.

1
International Energy Outlook 2010, US Energy Information Administration, July 2010
2
International Energy Outlook 2010, US Energy Information Administration, July 2010
3
Palm, Thomas Fredrik, The future of LNG in Europe and the potential impact on the market power of the gas
suppliers, May 2007
4
http://www.eia.doe.gov/; US Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics and Analysis
5
Palm, Thomas Fredrik, The future of LNG in Europe and the potential impact on the market power of the gas
suppliers, May 2007
In recent years, costs throughout the LNG
Exhibit 1
value chain have declined. According to LNG Chain Cost Distribution
the Gas Technology Institute, liquefaction (million USD)
costs have decreased 35% to 50% over
the past ten years. The price of LNG Liquefaction
47%
vessels has also nearly halved over the
past decade. The main cost driver within Regasification
transport is the distance to the market. 15%
Regasification plants or receiving terminals
are generally less expensive than
liquefaction plants and costs have also
Shipping
fallen in recent years. However, the cost of 38%
these plants show wide variation and are
Source: Palm, Thomas Fredrik, The future of LNG in Europe and the
very site-specific. Typically, these plants potential impact on the market power of the gas suppliers, May 2007
range from $100 million to more than $2
billion. The most expensive items in these terminals are the storage tanks, which can account
for one-third to one-half of the cost. The tank type, in turn, is dictated largely by location and
local regulatory requirements.6 The industry is also trending towards large storage tanks to
achieve economies of scale. As a result, LNG, once perceived to be a high-priced niche
supply, is now seen as a scalable energy commodity.

LNG Supply in Europe


With indigenous natural gas production decreasing each year, the security of gas supply has
become a major issue in European energy policy. Norway and the Netherlands have been
important indigenous suppliers of natural gas to the region. The large Groningen gas field in
the Netherlands has now been in production for approximately 40 years. Over the past
decade, Norwegian production has rapidly increased with the establishment of the Troll and
the Ormen Lange field. The UK, Germany and Italy also produce a limited amount of natural
gas. Exhibit 2 shows that natural gas constitutes approximately 24% of primary energy
consumption by fuel in the European Union (EU) as of 2009. Exhibit 3 shows the share of gas
usage in primary energy consumption by country.

Exhibit 2 Exhibit 3
2009 EU Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel 2009 Share of Natural Gas in Primary Energy Consumption (%)
50%
Others Oil 45%
1% 36%
40%
Renewables 35%
9%
30%
24%
25%
Nuclear 20%
Electricity
14% 15%
Natural Gas
24% 10%
Solid Fossil 5%
Fuels
16% 0%
KL UK HJ TR IT RO IE BE LV LT LU SK EU ES AT DE DK CZ PT FR SI PL BG GR PI CH EE SE
Source: 2010 Eurogas Statistical Report, The European Union of the
Natural Gas Industry Source: 2010 Eurogas Statistical Report, The European Union of the Natural Gas Industry

Currently, natural gas is primarily supplied via pipelines from Russia, Algeria and Norway.
Russia presently provides more than a quarter of Europe’s gas. For decades, the import
dependency on Russia has been a critical issue regarding the security of gas supplies for
Europe. Interruptions in gas deliveries from Russia in 2006 and 2009 acted as a wake-up call
for the EU. On a macro level, the majority of the world’s energy reserves are located in regions
with relatively low political stability and any turmoil or conflict can hinder gas flow. Additionally,

6
The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status & Outlook, Energy Information Administration, US Department
of Energy, December 2003
2 RREEF Research
pipelines from Russia and the Middle East have to cross several borders in order to reach
Europe. Specifically, pipelines from the Middle East may be difficult to construct due to
geopolitical issues and technical constraints. Diversification of gas import supply chain from
gas-rich supply regions is critical to mitigate these various supply risks.

LNG offers the region a key opportunity to diversify and reduce risk as it can be transported via
international waters to reach destination. While there are new risks that could arise as LNG
vessels often need to pass through congested straits, there should be a reduction in supply
risk on the whole. Additionally, with LNG infrastructure in place, terminals can receive LNG
from alternative producers in the event of unforeseen supply disruption or halt in production,
providing flexibility where pipeline cannot. Increased access to LNG in recent years has eased
Europe’s dependence on pipeline deliveries. Exhibit 4 shows that 19% of net gas imports to
EU27 from non-EU country are in the form of LNG. Over half of LNG supplies entering EU27
come from Algeria and Qatar (see Exhibit 5). Algeria is the primary LNG-exporter to Europe
with deliveries to France, Spain, Belgium, Italy and the UK. Export from Middle East such as
Egypt and Qatar has mostly supplied Spain. In particular, the share of Qatari imports in the EU
has significantly risen in recent years. Export from Nigeria began in 1999 and has primarily
supplied Spain and France. Additionally, Europe also receives LNG imports from other sources
such as Oman, Trinidad and Tobago and Libya.

Exhibit 4 Exhibit 5
2009 Net Imports to EU27 from Non-EU 2009 Breakdown of EU27 LNG Supplies
Countries by Type of Transport
Algeria
Others* Libya
30%
<1% Oman 1%
Pipeline 3%
81% Norway
3%
Trinidad
Tobago Qatar
10% 25%
LNG
*Including Egypt
19%
supplies from 11%
sources which
cannot be Nigeria
identified 17%

Source: 2010 Eurogas Statistical Report, The European Union of the Source: 2010 Eurogas Statistical Report, The European Union of the
Natural Gas Industry Natural Gas Industry

Among the countries in the EU, Spain is the largest LNG importer (see Exhibit 6). Spain is
heavily dependent on imports for gas supply as it is constrained by limited indigenous
production and access to Northwest Europe. In fact, it is the world’s third largest LNG market,
behind Japan and South Korea, and the fastest growing major LNG importer in the first nine
months of 2008.7 Gas demand in Spain has grown by around 13% per annum since 1996 and
the country continues to expand its gas infrastructure. From a demand perspective, low gas
penetration in the Spanish residential and commercial sectors means gas usage in these
sectors is expected to grow strongly.8 France is the second most important importer of LNG
within the EU and has tried to position itself as a European hub for LNG imports. The country
receives some 25% of its natural gas imports in this form. Most French LNG imports come
from Algeria, with smaller quantities from Nigeria.9

7
Gas glut reaches Europe, Deutsche Bank Research, July 8, 2010
8
Gas glut reaches Europe, Deutsche Bank Research, July 8, 2010
9
http://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_profile_of_France; Energy profile of France, The Encyclopedia of Earth,
February 2010
RREEF Research 3
Exhibit 6
2009 LNG Supplies in EU27
(LNG Net Imports)
2500

2000

(PJ - GCV)
1500

1000

500

0
EU27 Spain France UK Belgium Italy Portugal Greece

Source: 2010 Eurogas Statistical Report, The European Union of the Natural
Gas Industry
Note: PJ –GCV (1 PJ GCV = 25.6 million m3 gas )

Exhibits 7a and 7b show the current existing, proposed, approved and under construction
liquefaction and regasification facilities across Europe. Europe has made massive investments
in LNG terminals in recent years and will continue to do so in order to boost purchase of LNG
as it seeks to reduce dependence on gas piped from Russia and Algeria. Amid rising import
demand, more regasification terminals in Europe are needed to broaden connection with the
Middle East. The Middle East is expected to become the fastest growing LNG exporter in the
coming years. The region has vast gas reserves that can supply East Asia, Europe and North
America. Specifically, Qatar is expected to continue to aggressively expand exports. Europe is
adding about 65 billion in LNG import capacity with more than 150 billion of new capacity in the
planning stages.10 In the past, the ability to move more LNG to European markets has been
constrained by a lack of access to regasification capacity due to the number of available
terminals as well as the existence of long-term capacity rights held by a small number of
industry participants.11

In May 2009 South Hook facility opened in the UK as Europe’s biggest terminal with
provisional capacity of 10.5 billion m³. The second development stage will mean twice this
amount can be delivered. This brings the annual transmission capacity of regasification
terminals in Europe (including Turkey) to around 130.6 billion m³.12 More terminals in Belgium,
France, Italy, Spain and the UK will be taken into service in the next few years.13 The transport
of LNG by road tankers is also well developed. NGVA Europe envisages an LNG Blue
Corridor, a road offering several LNG refueling possibilities for heavy vehicles, along the
Mediterranean coast.14

10
Europe May Boost LNG Imports to Bypass Russian and Algerian Gas, http://www.lngworldnews.com/europe-
may-boost-lng-imports-to-bypass-russian-and-algerian-gas/; June 9th, 2010
11
LNG in Europe, An Overview of European Import Terminals; King & Spalding, 2006
12
Nominal regasification capacity
13
Gas glut reaches Europe, Deutsche Bank Research, July 8, 2010
14
LNG Corridors the Right Solution for Europe, NGVA Europe, January 10, 2011
4 RREEF Research
Exhibit 7a
LNG Marine Terminals – Europe (Map A)

East Irish Sea, Gateway LNG & Gas Storage


Norsea Pipeline Limited, Teesside
Approximate Location, Morecombe Bay, Hoegh LNG
Teesside GasPort, Teesside
Amwich, Anglesey, Wales

Barrow (Barrow in Furness) Island Grain LNG + Expansion, Isle of Grain, Kent

Shannon LNG, Hess LNG, Shannon Estuary


Ireland
United LionGas LNG, Rotterdam
Kingdom Offshore Port of Rotterdam
South Hook LNG + Expansion, Milford Haven
Dutch Gate Terminal + Expansion, Province of Zuid Holland
Dragon LNG + Expansion, Milford Haven

Netherlands Zeebreege (Fluxys LNG) + Expansion


Antifer (La Poterie-Cap-d’Antifer), Upper Normandy
Conoco Philips-Essent, Eemshaven
Montoir-de-Bretagne + Expansion, Pays de la Loire Belgium
Port of Zeebreege, Exmar
Le Verdon (Le Verdon-sur-Mer), Aquitaine
Dunkerque, Nord-Pas-de-Calais
Bilbao, Vizcaya Province
Fos sur Mer, Fos Cavaou
Gijón + Espansion, Northern Asturias Region
France Fos sur Mer, Port of Marseille
Regansoa LNG, El Ferrol LNG/Mugardos, La Coruña Province
Fos sur Mer, Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur
Sines LNG + Expansion, Municipality of Alentejo

Regasification Facility Status Barcelona + Expansion, Barcelona Province


Portugal
Spain
Existing
Sagunto, Valencia Province
Proposed
Cartegena + Expansion, Murcia Province
Under Construction
Approved Huelva + Expansion(s), Huelva Province

Source: California Energy Commission, June 2010

Exhibit 7b
LNG Marine Terminals – Europe (Map B)

Liquefaction Facility Status


Snøhvit (Melkøya Island, Finnmark)
Existing

Regasification Facility Status


Existing
Proposed Finland
Under Construction
Approved Brunnsviksholmen
Norway

Sweden Estonia
Świnoujście, Port of Szczecin
LNG Port of Rostock, near Berlin Approximate Location , Baltic Region

Wilhelmshaven, Lower Saxony


Lithuania
Fluesigerdgas Terminalgasellschaft, Lower Saxony

Germany
Poland
(Endesa), Treiste, Province of Treiste & Muggia, Province of Treiste
Ukraine
(Eni) Approximate Location, Central or Northern Adriatic Sea
North Adriatic LNG Project, Rovigo, Province of Rovigo Approximate Location, Offshore Le Marche Region
La Spezia, Panigaglia, Province of La Spezia
Krk Island (Adria LNG) Approximate Location, Black Sea
Rosignano Maritomo, Province of Liverno Slovenia
Croatia Romania Constanta, Black Sea
Livorno, Province of Liverno
Taranto, Taranto Province
Castiglione della Pescaia, Province of Grosseto
Brindisi + Expansion, Province of Brindisi
Livorno OLT Cross Gas Italy Approximate Location, Fier Region
Albania
Porto Torres Sassari, Province of Sassari Approximate Location, Marmara Ereglisi
Sardinia Greece Turkey
Approximate location, between Sicily and Naples Approximate Location, Aliaga LNG, Gulf of Izmir
Sicily
Offshore Porto Empedocle, Province of Agrigento Revythoussa + Expansion
Coriligliano Calabro, Province of Calabria
Priolo Gargalio-Augusta, Province of Syracuse, Island of Sicily
San Ferdinando, Province of Regio Calabria
Cyprus
Gioia Tauro, Province of Calabria
Vassikiko (aka Vasilikos)
Source: California Energy Commission, June 2010

RREEF Research 5
Globally there is nearly twice as much regasification capacity operating or under construction
compared to liquefaction capacity. This imbalance is likely to remain an ongoing feature of the
LNG trade despite an unprecedented expansion in liquefaction capacity in global LNG markets
in 2009.15 According to Dealogic, the $18.3bn Papua New Guinea LNG development project
topped 2009 Project Finance deals. Exhibit 8 shows that a significant number of projects have
been completed in Poland, Netherlands and Russia over the past 5 years. Poland joined the
ever-growing list of countries importing Qatar’s LNG after signing a framework agreement with
Qatargas Operating Company in 2009. Polish state-controlled oil and natural gas company
PGNiG will be provided with approximately 1 million tonnes of LNG annually by Qatargas. The
issue of Poland's gas supply diversification intensified after the row between Ukraine and
Russia over prices which resulted in reduced gas deliveries to some eastern and southern
European states. Exhibit 9 shows that a significant number of LNG projects are in the pipeline
for Russia, followed by Italy and the UK.

Exhibit 8 Exhibit 9
Closed LNG Projects for Europe LNG Projects in the Pipeline for Europe
January 1, 2006 - December 31, 2010 16,000
3,000 14,000
2,500 12,000
(In $Millions)
(In $Millions)

2,000 10,000
8,000
1,500
6,000
1,000
4,000
500 2,000
0 0
Poland Netherlands Russion France Spain Greece Italy Multi Russion Italy United Romania France Poland Germany Spain Moldova
Federation Western Federation Kingdom
Europe
Note: Project finance and non project finance LNG deals Countries Note: Project finance and non project finance LNG deals
Source: Dealogic Projectware, January 2011 Source: Dealogic Projectware, January 2011

LNG Demand in Europe


Demand for LNG in Europe has been steadily increasing over the past decade and is expected
to continue to increase over the coming years. The International Energy Agency expects
demand for natural gas in Europe to rise to 676 billion cubic meters by 2020. Additional gas
from new suppliers will require massive investment in production and transportation capacity.
As most of the new supply is expected to come from countries with relatively low political
stability, a significant part of the increased supply is expected to come in the form of LNG.
Additionally, as costs throughout the LNG value chain continue to decline, LNG will become
increasingly competitive to pipelines. Furthermore, the emergence of tradable pollution rights
and heighted climate change awareness can further underscore the demand for LNG. Natural
gas releases a lower amount of CO2 than oil and coal and is ecologically the most acceptable
fossil fuel.

Demand for LNG, however, can be hindered by growing demand from other regions around
the world. Depleting North American gas reserves and rapid economic growth in China may
redirect gas supply from Europe in the future, resulting in higher gas prices that can lead to
fuel substitution.16 Nevertheless, Europe has a substantial cost advantage due to its vicinity to
major suppliers. Ultimately, demand for LNG is expected to increase strongly both in absolute
number and relative to pipeline imports over the coming years.

15
Natural Gas Market Review, International Energy Agency, 2009
16
Palm, Thomas Fredrik, The future of LNG in Europe and the potential impact on the market power of the gas
suppliers, May 2007
6 RREEF Research
The recent revision of the European Commission’s Trans-European Energy Network policy
highlights the importance of LNG terminals to cover Europe’s future increasing demand for
natural gas. The Commission report indicates that the energy networks currently in place are
dated and are not designed to cope with the energy challenges faced today. It assessed that
planned pipelines will be sufficient to provide this capacity for demands in 2020, but that
beyond 2020 new LNG terminals and developments in storage will be required.17

Conclusion
A strong need exists for LNG infrastructure investment in Europe. From a supply perspective,
European indigenous gas production is declining and security of supply is a big concern for the
region. Currently, Algeria, Russia and Norway supply 53% of EU27’s natural gas supply. An
increase in LNG imports from new suppliers would reduce the current supplier’s market power.
Moreover, LNG infrastructure offers great flexibility to the region because it is possible to
change supplier or receiver without changing existing infrastructure.18

Simultaneously, gas demand is expected to increase considerably for the region. Natural gas
is generally considered more profitable as a fuel for electricity generation. Gas fired power
plants also produce twice the electricity per ton of CO2 emitted compared to coal fired plants.19
Going forward, the emergence of tradable pollution rights and continual declining costs
throughout the value chain can further underscore the demand for LNG. Moreover,
technological progress has made LNG competitive with pipelines on increasingly shorter
distances.

From a global perspective, LNG demand is expected to exceed supply growth in 2011, driven
primarily on the back of demand from the developing regions of Asia, the Middle East and
Latin America.20 Overall, LNG and gas markets are expected to tighten over the next few
years. Regionally, gas prices in Europe are expected to gradually start picking up again in
2014. Given an assortment of supply and demand factors presented above, LNG is expected
to play an increasingly critical role in the development of energy markets across Europe going
forward.

17
LNG Blue Corridors the Right Solution for Europe, NGVA Europe, January 10, 2011
18
Palm, Thomas Fredrik, The future of LNG in Europe and the potential impact on the market power of the gas
suppliers, May 2007
19
Palm, Thomas Fredrik, The future of LNG in Europe and the potential impact on the market power of the gas
suppliers, May 2007
20
Global LNG demand to exceed supply in 2011, Platts, January 12, 2011
RREEF Research 7
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