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To: Interested Parties

From: Mike Greenfield and Marissa Gerchick, Change Research

Date: September 5, 2018

RE: Results of Statewide Poll for Innovation Ohio

A recent poll from Change Research conducted online surveyed 822 likely midterm election
voters in the state of Ohio from August 31 - September 4.

The poll shows Mike DeWine and Richard Cordray in a tight race for governor of Ohio, with
DeWine at 45% and Cordray at 43% when all candidates are included on the ballot. With the
Green Party and Libertarian candidates removed from the ballot, DeWine and Cordray each get
about 43% of the vote, with 14% of voters undecided.

The poll also shows Democratic candidates within a few points of Republicans in a number of
key statewide races. In each of these races, respondents were asked to choose who they plan to
vote for between the Democrat and the Republican. In the elections for Attorney General and
Auditor, the Democratic candidate trails the Republican by less than 5 points. In the races for
Treasurer and Secretary of State that lead is tighter; Democratic candidates trail their
Republican opponents by less than 3 points.

The poll also tested approval and endorsement power of President Trump. 38% of respondents
felt very favorably about President Trump, while 44% of respondents felt very unfavorably
about him. Trump’s favorability indicators are related to his endorsement power -- 42% of
voters say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who has been endorsed by President
Trump. 29% say they would be more likely to vote for a Trump-endorsed candidate and 29% say
the endorsement would have no affect on their vote.

###

© 2018 Change Research


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Sample Size 822 418 402 232 193 217 161 16 98 16 657 250

Are you male or female? Male 49 0 100 58.3 50 46.5 41 81.9 46.4 52 47.5 42.9
Female 51 100 0 41.7 50 53.5 59 18.1 53.6 48 52.5 57.1

What race/ethnicity best describes you? Black or African American 12.4 12.9 12 8.4 20.6 9.3 11.3 0 100 0 0 10.3
Hispanic 2.1 1.9 2.2 0 3.7 1.4 4.3 0 0 100 0 2.4
White / Caucasian 82.9 83.8 81.7 91.6 71.8 86.3 79.7 0 0 0 100 83.4
Asian / Pacific Islander 2.1 0.7 3.5 0 3.9 1.6 3.8 100 0 0 0 3.9
American Indian or Alaska
0.6 0.7 0.5 0 0 1.5 0.9 0 0 0 0 0.1
Native

What is the highest level of education you have completed? Less than high school degree 1.3 0.7 2 1.6 0.9 1.1 1.9 0 1.2 0 1.3 0
High school degree 18.6 14.5 22.9 24.8 12.1 16.6 21.2 0 8 13.8 21.6 0
Some college but no degree 34.9 31.9 38.1 34.8 39.1 29.5 34.8 43.8 42.9 28.8 33.5 0
College degree 30.6 34.3 26.8 31.2 26.9 35.6 28.1 56.2 25.1 36.9 30.5 100
Graduate degree 14.6 18.5 10.3 7.7 21 17.2 13.9 0 22.8 20.5 13.2 0

I live in Ohio, am registered to


Which of the following best describes you? 38.1 47.8 28.2 44.5 36.5 34.7 35.8 19.9 53.2 29.9 38.1 43
vote, and a Democrat.
I live in Ohio, am registered to
41.2 32.1 50.6 33.5 37.9 44.9 50.6 80.1 17.7 42.9 42.4 36.7
vote, and a Republican.
I live in Ohio, am registered to
20.7 20.1 21.2 21.9 25.6 20.3 13.5 0 29 27.2 19.5 20.3
vote, and an independent.

Do you expect to vote in the November 2018 midterm elections for


Yes, definitely 86.3 85.3 87.2 69.1 90.9 92.5 95.6 100 97.4 90.4 83.7 88.4
Governor, Congress, county officials and other state and local offices?
Yes, probably 8.3 8.7 8 17.7 4.9 5.7 3.1 0 0 9.6 10 8.2
Maybe (50-50) 5.4 6.1 4.8 13.2 4.2 1.8 1.3 0 2.6 0 6.3 3.4

How favorable are your feelings about Republican gubernatorial


Very favorable 15.2 12.6 17.8 9.6 14.5 17.3 20.3 18.1 11.5 24.4 15.7 14.3
candidate Mike DeWine?
Somewhat favorable 25.8 20.6 31.5 19.5 27.2 27.4 31.6 61.9 6.9 38.4 27.2 27.2
Somewhat unfavorable 16 17.4 14.5 14.9 21 14.6 14.3 0 20.6 7.8 15.4 11.7
Very unfavorable 27.1 33.7 20.4 24.5 26.6 30.7 24.5 19.9 40.9 23.5 25.5 34.8
Don’t know / no opinion 15.8 15.8 15.9 31.5 10.7 10 9.3 0 20.1 5.8 16.1 12

How favorable are your feelings about Democratic gubernatorial


Very favorable 19.1 22.6 15.5 11.7 19.2 26.4 18.6 19.9 9.8 24.1 21 20
candidate Richard Cordray?
Somewhat favorable 19.7 23.3 15.9 24.4 18.8 14.1 21.4 0 41.7 33 17.1 25.1
Somewhat unfavorable 10.8 10.2 11.5 6.6 11.9 12.3 13.9 18.1 10.6 0 11 13.2
Very unfavorable 29.5 21.1 38.1 18.6 32.8 31.9 37.3 62 19.7 31.5 28.4 21.3
Don’t know / no opinion 20.9 22.8 19 38.8 17.2 15.3 8.7 0 18.2 11.3 22.4 20.4

In the November 2018 election for Governor of Ohio, who do you plan
Mike DeWine, Republican 44.9 37 52.9 33.7 42.5 49.7 57.2 80.1 19.7 42.9 47.7 42
to vote for?
Richard Cordray, Democrat 42.8 48.3 37.3 45.2 48 40.5 38.7 19.9 60.8 47.6 41.9 50
Constance Gadell-Newton,
2.7 3.9 1.5 3.8 0.6 2.4 1.4 0 4.5 9.6 2.5 1.3
Green Party
Travis Irvine, Libertarian 6 6.9 5.2 14.4 2.7 3.9 1.3 0 12.4 0 4.6 3.4
Would not vote 3.5 4 3.1 2.9 6.3 3.5 1.4 0 2.6 0 3.4 3.4

If the following were the candidates in the November 2018 election for
Mike DeWine, Republican 43 35.3 51 35.6 40.4 46.4 51.3 75.7 19.7 42.9 44.9 41
governor of Ohio, who would you vote for?
Richard Cordray, Democrat 42.8 48.8 36.6 52.7 46.1 35.8 33.7 24.3 67.5 47.6 41 47.1
Undecided 14.1 15.9 12.4 11.7 13.5 17.7 14.9 0 12.8 9.6 14 11.9

In the November 2018 election for Senator of Ohio, who do you plan to
Sherrod Brown, Democrat 46.2 55 37.1 54.9 44.6 42.2 41.2 19.9 68.8 35 45.4 52.5
vote for?
Jim Renacci, Republican 41.8 33.1 50.9 38 36.4 45.9 48 80.1 19.7 31.4 42.9 37.2
Undecided 11.9 11.8 12 7 19 11.9 10.9 0 11.5 33.7 11.7 10.3

In the November 2018 election for Attorney General of Ohio, who do


Dave Yost, Republican 41.3 31.6 51.2 34.6 33.5 48.1 50.4 36.2 19.7 52.4 43.1 38
you plan to vote for?
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Stephen Dettelbach, Democrat 37 42.8 31.1 48.1 38.8 31.7 25.6 19.9 58.4 29.3 35.6 43.7
Undecided 21.8 25.6 17.7 17.3 27.7 20.2 24 43.8 21.9 18.3 21.3 18.3

In the November 2018 election for Auditor of Ohio, who do you plan to
Zack Space, Democrat 36.5 42.5 30.2 46.5 35.2 31.2 30.1 0 53.8 39.7 36 40.8
vote for?
Keith Faber, Republican 40.2 30 50.8 32.5 37.6 46.5 46.5 100 19.7 52.4 40.9 36
Undecided 23.3 27.5 19 21.1 27.2 22.2 23.4 0 26.5 7.8 23 23.2

In the November 2018 election for Secretary of State of Ohio, who do


Frank LaRose, Republican 42 33.1 51.3 36 38.7 46.5 47.9 80.1 19.7 41.1 43.7 36.1
you plan to vote for?
Kathleen Clyde, Democrat 40.2 48.2 31.8 51 36.5 38.4 31.9 19.9 59.5 47.6 38.1 46.3
Undecided 17.8 18.6 16.8 13 24.8 15.1 20.2 0 20.8 11.3 18.2 17.6

In the November 2018 election for Treasurer of Ohio, who do you plan
Rob Richardson, Democrat 38.4 47.1 29.6 50.1 35.4 34.3 30.6 19.9 57.5 41.8 37.3 44.2
to vote for?
Robert Sprague, Republican 40.6 32.1 49.3 32.4 36.1 47.4 48.3 80.1 19.7 28.1 42.1 37.8
Undecided 21 20.8 21.1 17.4 28.5 18.3 21.1 0 22.8 30.2 20.7 17.9

How favorable are you feelings about President Donald Trump? Very favorable 37.5 28.9 46.3 28.4 37 43.3 43.8 61.9 20.1 52.4 38 28
Somewhat favorable 11.7 12.2 11.4 9.3 8.3 14.5 14.8 18.1 3.8 10.4 12.1 14.6
Somewhat unfavorable 5.3 6.2 4.3 9.8 3.7 2.8 4.1 0 0 0 6.1 6.2
Very unfavorable 44.2 51.8 36.3 51.7 47.3 38.8 36.7 19.9 76.1 37.1 42.1 49.5
Don’t know / no opinion 1.3 0.9 1.7 0.7 3.6 0.6 0.6 0 0 0 1.7 1.7

Would knowing that President Donald Trump endorsed a certain More likely to vote for the
28.7 20.9 36.6 20.6 24.8 32.7 37 0 20.1 45.9 30.1 24.6
candidate make you more or less likely to vote for that candidate? candidate
Less likely to vote for the
42.1 49.4 34.7 49.9 46.4 36.2 34.1 19.9 69.3 35 40.3 45.3
candidate
No change 29.2 29.8 28.8 29.5 28.8 31.1 28.8 80.1 10.7 19.1 29.6 30.1

“This candidate and his running mate took tens of thousands of dollars
in political donations from the founder of an online school, ECOT, that
lied about its enrollment numbers to steal taxpayer money that should I am much more likely to vote
1.6 0.7 2.5 4 1.3 0 1.2 0 2.1 0 1.2 0.2
have gone to our schools. Local schools throughout Ohio lost $591 for this candidate
million to ECOT.” Does this make you more or less likely to vote for
this candidate?
I am somewhat more likely to
0.6 0.5 0.6 0 0.1 1.2 1.2 0 0 5.6 0.6 0.6
vote for this candidate
I am somewhat less likely to
20 21.3 18.8 26.5 17.9 16.6 21.5 36.2 12.4 21.8 21 24.5
vote for this candidate
I am much less likely to vote
54.9 60.2 49.3 50.7 52.6 58.8 55.8 19.9 74.9 50.2 53.9 54.1
for this candidate
No change 23 17.3 28.8 18.8 28.1 23.5 20.5 43.8 10.6 22.4 23.2 20.7

“This candidate has a pattern of repeatedly covering for his friends and
political allies who are accused of sexually harassing women in the
I am much more likely to vote
workplace, including interfering in investigations and pressuring 1.2 1.1 1.3 2.9 0 0.8 1 0 2.1 0 1 0.2
for this candidate
investigators.” Does this make you more or less likely to vote for this
candidate?
I am somewhat more likely to
0.4 0.2 0.5 0 0 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 0.5 0
vote for this candidate
I am somewhat less likely to
19.2 13.1 25.8 24 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.9 7.4 16.9 20.7 17.7
vote for this candidate
I am much less likely to vote
55.6 66.3 44.2 61.9 48.8 53.7 56.9 18.1 70.7 55.8 55.8 62
for this candidate
No change 23.7 19.4 28.1 11.2 33.8 26.6 22.5 62 19.7 27.3 22.1 20.2

“This candidate ignored the complaints and warnings from police


officers in his office and forced them to wear unsafe, expired I am much more likely to vote
1.6 1.2 2.1 3.1 1 1 1.5 0 2.1 0 1.5 1.5
bulletproof vests, risking the safety of those who keep us safe.” Does for this candidate
this make you more or less likely to vote for this candidate?
I am somewhat more likely to
1.1 1.7 0.4 0 1 0.8 2.9 0 3 0 0.8 1.4
vote for this candidate
I am somewhat less likely to
23.5 20.1 27.4 32.5 18.6 20.7 22.5 38.1 16.8 25.1 24.6 24.8
vote for this candidate
I am much less likely to vote
50.9 61 39.9 44.6 50.5 53.4 54.5 0 67.4 57.9 50.5 48.8
for this candidate
No change 22.8 16 30.1 19.8 28.8 24.1 18.7 61.9 10.6 17 22.6 23.5
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In the 2016 election, did you vote for: Donald Trump, the Republican 49.3 41.8 57.2 33.4 47.4 57.6 60.2 80.1 20.2 32.9 51.8 43.9
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 43.5 52.2 34.1 48.4 46.6 39.5 37.7 19.9 73.2 51.4 40.5 51.7
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian 3.1 2.7 3.5 6.1 3.8 1.4 1.1 0 0 15.7 3.5 2.8
Jill Stein, the Green Party 0.8 1.1 0.5 2.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0 2.5 0 0.6 0.6
Did not vote 3.4 2.2 4.6 9.7 1.9 1.2 0.8 0 4.1 0 3.6 1.1