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In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
7 September 2018 (Toronto, ON) – Incumbent John Tory has a commanding lead among
decided voters in the early stages of the Toronto mayoral campaign, a new Mainstreet
Research poll finds.
The survey was conducted on September 4th and 5th among a sample of 1178 Torontonians
aged 18 and over. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.85% and is accurate 19 times out of
20.
Among decided voters, Tory enjoys 62.6% support while challenger Jennifer Keesmaat
comes in with 27.7% support. 9.6% of Torontonians would vote for another candidate if the
election were held today.
“John Tory is off to a great start at the beginning of this municipal campaign”, said Quito
Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “He has significant leads among every
demographic and region in Toronto.”
However, just about a third (33.2%) of Torontonians said that they have not decided who to
support for mayor just yet.
“People have not given much thought about who to vote for given that the election is just
over six weeks away,” continued Maggi. “This means that there is room for Keesmaat to
grow and make it an interesting race, but there is no doubt that she has some work to do to
make it a competitive election come October”.
Tory holds strong leads in every region in Toronto, with his largest lead in Scarborough.
However, the gap between Keesmaat and Tory is the narrowest in the downtown area.
-30-
33.2%
41.7%
All Voters
6.6%
All VotersVoters
Decided 18.4%
33.2%
41.7%
27.7%
All Voters
Decided Voters
62.6%
6.6%
18.4%
(decided voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Downtown Etobicoke North York Scarborough
John Tory 62.6% 57.6% 67.1% 56% 60.4% 64.4% 73.2% 53.7% 61.2% 68% 75.5%
Jennifer Keesmaat 27.7% 29.6% 26.1% 32% 32.2% 26.3% 17.6% 39.4% 24.3% 21.1% 15.5%
Another Candidate 9.6% 12.8% 6.8% 12% 7.5% 9.3% 9.2% 6.9% 14.5% 10.9% 9%
Unweighted Frequency 808 456 352 146 214 228 220 320 158 170 160
Weighted Frequency 808 382 426 246 197 205 160 316 148 182 162
QUESTIONNAIRE
On October 22 2018, you will have a chance to vote in your municipal election.
Which mayoral candidate would you vote for, or might lean toward?
(first two responses randomized)
John Tory
Jennifer Keesmaat
Another Candidate
Undecided
This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.
The sampling frame was derived from random digit dialing. Respondents were dialed at
random.
At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.
The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.
The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age
and gender.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.85% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.
The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 3.99%, Females: +/-
4.08%, 18-34 age group: +/- 6.27%, 35-49 age group: +/- 5.58%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.43%,
65+ age group: +/- 5.66%, Downtown Toronto: +/- 4.7%, Etobicoke: +/- 6.58%, Etobicoke:
+/- 5.72%, Scarborough: +/- 6.49%.
In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.