GCISC-RR-17-Past and Projected Impacts of Climate Change On Forests of Pakistan

Research Report
GCISC-RR-17
Past and Projected Impacts of Climate Change

on Forests of Pakistan
(GCISC Contribution to PFI Study: Development of National Response
Strategy to Combat Impact of Climate Change on Forest of Pakistan)
M. Munir Sheikh, Naeem Manzoor, Nadia Rehman, Muhammad Adnan and Arshad M. Khan
May, 2015
Global Change Impact Studies Centre

Islamabad, Pakistan
Research Report
GCISC-RR-17
Past and Projected Impacts of Climate Change

on Forests of Pakistan
(GCISC Contribution to PFI Study: Development of National Response
Strategy to Combat Impact of Climate Change on Forest of Pakistan)
M. Munir Sheikh, Naeem Manzoor, Nadia Rehman, Muhammad Adnan and

Arshad M. Khan
May, 2015
Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)

National Centre for Physics (NCP) Complex
Quaid-i-Azam University Campus
P.O. Box 3022, Islamabad, Pakistan
Published by:
Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)
National Centre for Physics (NCP) Complex
Quaid-i-Azam University Campus
P.O. Box 3022
Islamabad-44000
Pakistan
ISBN: 978-969-9395-19-2
@ GCISC
Copyright. This Report, or any part of it, may not be used for resale or any other
commercial or gainful purpose without prior permission of Global Change Impact
Studies Centre, Islamabad, Pakistan. For educational or non-profit use, however, any part
of the Report may be reproduced with appropriate acknowledgement.
Published in: May, 2015
This Report may be cited as follows:

Sheikh, M. M., N. Manzoor, N. Rehman, M. Adnan and Arshad M. Khan, (2015), Past
and Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Forests of Pakistan (GCISC Contribution to
PFI Study: Development of National Response Strategy to Combat Impact of Climate
Change on Forest of Pakistan), GCISC-RR-17, Global Change Impact Studies Centre
(GCISC), Islamabad, Pakistan.
CONTIRBUTORS TO THE STUDY
Coordinator: Muhammad Munir Sheikh
Chapter 1: Introduction
M. Munir Sheikh, Naeem Manzoor, Nadia Rehman, Dr. Ghulam Ali
Bajwa* and Arshad M. Khan
Chapter 2: Forest Types of Pakistan, their Locations and Characteristics

M. Munir Sheikh, Dr. Gulam Ali Bajwa*, and Naeem Manzoor
Chapter 3: Critical Review of Future Scenarios

M. Munir Sheikh, Qudsia Zafar, Nadia Rehman, Naeem Manzoor,
Muhammad Adnan and Arshad M. Khan
Chapter 4: Temperature and Precipitation Regime and Past Climate Changes

over different Forest Types of Pakistan
M. Munir Sheikh, Nadia Rehman, Naeem Manzoor, Javeria Ashraf,
Muhammad Adnan, Qudsia Zafar and Arshad M. Khan
Chapter 5: Projected Climate Changes over different Forest Types of Pakistan

M. Munir Sheikh, Nadia Rehman, Naeem Manzoor, Javeria Ashraf,
Muhammad Adnan and Arshad M. Khan
Chapter 6: Climate Change and the Forest Indicators

Dr. Gulam Ali Bajwa*, M. Munir Sheikh, Dr. M. Mohsin Iqbal and M.
Arif Goheer
* Pakistan Forest Institute (PFI), Peshawar, Pakistan

CONTENTS
Preface i
List of Tables ii
List of Figures v
Acronyms vii
CHAPTER – 1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Geographic and Physiographic Features of Pakistan 1

1.2 Climatological Features of Pakistan 2
1.3 Current Status of Forests in Pakistan 3
1.4 Forests’ Role in our Socio-economic Sector 3
1.5 Climate Change and Forestry 4
1.6 Initiation of a Study on the Impact of Climate Change on the Forests of 5
Pakistan
1.7 Objectives of the Study 5
1.8 Activities outsourced to Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) 6
1.8.1 Analysis of the Past Trends 6
1.8.2 Critical Review of the Future Scenarios 6
1.8.3 Downscaling Climate Change Scenarios 6
1.9 Study Approach 7
1.9.1 Selection of a Forest Map of Pakistan 7
1.9.2 Preparation of a gridded Forest Map for Analysis 7
1.9.3 Data and Methodology 8
1.9.4 Seasons used for the Analysis 8
1.9.5 Chapter Outlines 8
CHAPTER – 2 FOREST TYPES OF PAKISTAN, THEIR LOCATIONS AND

CHARACTERISTICS
2.1 Introduction 11
2.2 Alpine Pastures (AP) 11
2.3 Coniferous Forests 12
2.3.1 Sub-Alpine Forests (SA) 12
2.3.2 Dry Temperate Forests (DT) 12
2.3.3 Moist Temperate Forests (MT) 13
2.3.4 Sub-Tropical Pine Forests (STP) 14
2.4 Scrub Forests 14
2.4.1 Dry Sub-Tropical Broad-leaved Forests (DSTBL) 15
2.4.2 Dry Tropical Thorn Forests (DTT) 16
2.5 Irrigated Plantations (IP) 17
2.6 Riverine Forests (RF) 17
2.7 Mangrove Forests (MF) 18
CHAPTER – 3 CRITICAL REVIEW OF FUTURE SCENARIOS
3.1 Introduction 24
3.2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports 24
3.3 IPCC’s Emission Scenarios 25
3.3.1 Emission Scenarios from the First Assessment Report (FAR,1990)– 25
(SA90 Scenarios)
3.3.2 Emission Scenarios used in the Second Assessment Report (SAR, 1995) 27
– (IS92, 1992 Scenarios)
3.3.3 Emission Scenarios (SRES, 1996) from the Third and Forth Assessment 29
Reports (TAR, 2001 and AR4, 2007)
3.4 Climate Models used in the IPCC Assessment Reports 32
3.5 Critical review of the projections by Global Climate Models since SAR 35
3.5.1 Temperature 35
3.5.2 Precipitation 38
3.6 Regional Climate Change Projections for Temperature and Precipitation 39
for Asia and South Asia
3.6.1 Temperature 39
3.6.2 Precipitation 39
3.7 Climate Change trends on global and Pakistan basis 40
3.7.1 Trends on global basis 40
3.7.2 Climate Change Trends over Pakistan 41
3.7.2.1 Temperature Trends 43
3.7.2.2 Precipitation Trends 43
3.8 Projected climate changes over Pakistan 44
3.9 Regional Climate Model (RCM) based Regional Scenario Construction 47
3.10 Concluding Remarks 48
CHAPTER – 4 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION REGIME AND PAST

CLIMATE CHANGES OVER DIFFERENT FOREST TYPES OF
PAKISTAN
4.1 Introduction 50
4.2 Methodology Used 50
4.3 Temperature Regime and Past Climate Changes 51
4.3.1 Alpine Pastures (AP) 51
4.3.2 Coniferous Forests 52
4.3.2.1 Sub-Alpine (SA) 53
4.3.2.2 Dry Temperate (DT) 54
4.3.2.3 Moist Temperate (MT) and Sub-Tropical Pine (STP) 55
4.3.3 Scrub Forests 56
4.3.3.1 Dry Sub-Tropical Broad-Leaved (DSTBL) 56
4.3.4 Dry Tropical Thorn (DTT) 57
4.3.4.1 DTT-1 57
4.3.4.2 DTT-2 58
4.3.4.3 DTT-3 59
4.3.4.4 DTT-4 60
4.3.4.5 DTT-5 61
4.3.5 Irrigated Plantations (IP) 62
4.3.6 Riverine Forests (RF) 63
4.3.6.1 RF-1 and RF-2 63
4.3.7 Mangroves Forests (MF) 64
4.4 Consolidation and discussion of results of Past Temperature Changes 68
4.4.2.2.1 DT-1 71
4.4.2.2.2 DT-2 71
4.4.2.3 Moist Temperate (MT) 71
4.4.2.4 Sub-Tropical Pine (STP) 72
4.4.3.1.1 DSTBL-1 72
4.4.3.1.2 DSTBL-2 72
4.4.3.2 Dry Tropical Thorn (DTT) 72
4.4.3.2.1 DTT-1 72
4.4.3.2.2 DTT-2 73
4.4.3.2.3 DTT-3 73
4.4.3.2.4 DTT-4 73
4.4.3.2.5 DTT-5 73
4.4.5.1 RF-1 73
4.4.5.2 RF-2 74
4.4.6 Mangrove Forests (MF) 74
4.5 Consolidation of Precipitation Regime and Past Precipitation Changes 74
4.6 Past Precipitation Changes (1961-2000), Discussion and Results 76
4.6.1 Himalayan Forests 76
4.6.3 IP, Riverine and Mangrove Forests 77
CHAPTER – 5 PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGES OVER DIFFERENT

FOREST TYPES OF PAKISTAN
5.1 Introduction 79
5.2 Data and Methodology 79
5.3 Analysis of Results 80
5.4 Temperature Projections 80
5.4.2.2.1 DT-1 81
5.4.2.2.2 DT-2 81
5.4.3 Moist Temperate (MT) 81
5.4.4 Sub-Tropical Pine (STP) 81
5.4.5.1.1 DSTBL-1 82
5.4.5.1.2 DSTBL-2 82
5.4.5.2 Dry Tropical Thorn (DTT) 82
5.4.5.2.1 DTT-1 82
5.4.5.2.2 DTT-2 82
5.4.5.2.3 DTT-3 83
5.4.5.2.4 DTT-4 83
5.4.5.2.5 DTT-5 83
5.4.7.1 RF-1 84
5.4.7.2 RF-2 84
5.4.8 Mangrove Forests (MF) 84
5.5 Precipitation Projections 84
5.5.1.1 AP, SA, DT-1, DT-2 84
5.5.2 MT & STP 85
5.5.3.1 DSTBL-1, DSTBL-2 85
5.5.3.2 DTT-1, 2, 3, 4, 5 85
5.5.4 Other forests (IP, RF-1, RF-2 & MF) 86
5.6 Wind Projections 86
5.6.3 IP, Riverine and Mangrove Forests 87
CHAPTER – 6 CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE FOREST INDICATORS
6.1 Introduction 126

6.1.1 Tree / Timber line shift 127
6.1.2 Change in Forest Area 130
6.1.3 Change in Vegetation composition 132
6.1.4 Forest Out-Turn 137
6.1.5 Growing Seasons and Tree Phenology 139
6.1.6 Insect / Pests’ Occurrence 140
6.2 Conclusions 141
References 146
PREFACE
Global assessments have shown that future climate change is likely to significantly impact
forest ecosystems. This report describes the contribution of GCISC to the study:
“Development of National Response Strategy to combat Impact of Climate Change on
Forests of Pakistan” awarded to Pakistan Forest Institute, Ministry of Environment by
National Forest Program (NFP) Facility, funded by United Nations Food and Agriculture
Organization. It makes an assessment of the climate changes, both past and projected, over
the different forest types of Pakistan and provides information on the forest indicators
developed using the results of this assessment. Past changes in climate parameters like
temperature (mean, maximum & minimum) and precipitation are worked out on annual and
seasonal basis using 40 years (1961-2000) observed climate data of Climate Research Unit,
UK termed normally as CRU data. Future climate change projections are developed using
the outputs of ECHAM4, a Global Circulation Model of Max Planck Institute of Germany
using the A2 and B2 scenarios of IPCC given in its Special Report on Emission scenarios.
The outputs of GCM data are downscaled to the different forest regions using PRECIS, a
regional climate model developed by Hadley Centre, UK. This is done for the climate
parameters: temperature (mean, maximum & minimum), precipitation and wind speed at a
10 meter height on annual and seasonal basis using 1961-1990 as the base period and the
three thirty-year time slices: 2020s (2010-2039), 2050s (2040-2069) and 2080s (2070-2099)
for the future projection. All the forest types of Pakistan, their locations and characteristics
are also detailed as part of the study. A chapter on critical review of future scenarios in the
context of four IPCC Assessment Reports and the work done by other international R & D
Institutions and Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) is added to ascertain
whether the projected scenarios developed for various forest types are in line with the global
changes or otherwise. Using results drawn for projected climate changes, forest indicators
such as tree/timber line shift, changes in forest area and in vegetation composition, forest
out-turn, growing seasons, tree phrenology and the insect pests’ occurrences are added as a
chapter at the end of the study. PFI provided the necessary expert support of a Forest
Ecologist/Forest Climatologist to determine the required forest indicators jointly with
GCISC. The hard work put in by Mr. Munir Sheikh and various members of the team is
gratefully acknowledged.
Dr. Arshad Muhammad Khan

Executive Director, GCISC
i
LIST OF TABLES
CHAPTER – 2
Table 2.1 Important forest tree species, their climatic conditions and productivity rates in 20
Pakistan
Table 2.2 Additional plant Species of different forests types 21
CHAPTER – 3
Table 3.1 Selective items taken on Summary of Assumptions in the Six IPCC 1992 28
Alternative Scenarios [Source: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific
Assessment (1992)]
Table 3.2 GCMs used at GCISC for climate change scenario development taken from TAR 34
Table 3.3 GCMs used at GCISC for climate change scenario development taken from AR4 34
Table 3.4 Mean temperature change (ΔT °C) in different regions on annual and seasonal 42
basis (1951-2000)
Table 3.5 Percentage precipitation change (ΔP %) in different regions of Pakistan on yearly 43
basis (1951-2000)
Table 3.6 Projected temperature change in 2080s, ΔT (°C) by GCM Ensemble for A2 46
Scenario
Table 3.7 Projected precipitation change in 2080s, ΔT (°C) by GCM Ensemble for A2 46
Scenario
Table 3.8 Projected temperature change (ΔT°C) over different climatic regions of Pakistan 48
Table 3.9 Projected precipitation change (ΔT°C) over different climatic regions of Pakistan 48
CHAPTER – 4
Table 4.1 Temperature regime (T °C) over Alpine Pasture forest (1961–2000) 52
Table 4.2 Temperature change (ΔT°C) over Alpine Pasture forest (1961–2000) 52
Table 4.3 Temperature regime (T°C) over Sub-Alpine forest (1961–2000) 53
Table 4.4 Temperature change (ΔT°C) over the Sub-Alpine forest (1961–2000) 53
Table 4.5 Temperature regime (T°C) over Dry-Temperate forest (1961–2000) 54
Table 4.6 Temperature change (ΔT°C) over Dry-Temperate forest (961–2000) 54
Table 4.7 Temperature regime (T°C) over Moist-Temperate and Sub-tropical pine forests 55
(1961–2000)
Table 4.8 Temperature change (ΔT°C) over Moist-Temperate and Sub-tropical pine forests 55
(1961–2000)
Table 4.9 Temperature regime (T°C) over the DSTBL-I & II forests (1961–2000) 56
Table 4.10 Temperature change (ΔT°C) over the DSTBL-1 & 2 forests (1961–2000) 57
Table 4.11 Temperature regime (T°C) over DTT-1 (1961–2000) 58
Table 4.12 Temperature change (ΔT°C) over DTT-1 (1961–2000) 58
Table 4.14 Temperature change (ΔT°C) over DTT-2 during the period 1961-2000 59
Table 4.18 Temperature change (ΔT°C) over DTT-4 (1961–2000) 61
ii
Table 4.21 Temperature regime (T°C) over Irrigated Plantation (1961–2000) 62
Table 4.22 Temperature change (ΔT°C) over Irrigated Plantation (1961–2000) 63
Table 4.23 Temperature regime (T°C) over RF-1 and RF-2 (1961–2000) 63
Table 4.24 Temperature change (ΔT°C) over RF-1 & RF-2 (1961–2000) 64
Table 4.25 Temperature regime (T°C) over Mangroves Forest (1961–2000) 64
Table 4.26 Temperature change (ΔT°C) over Mangrove Forest (1961–2000) 65
Table 4.27 Past temperature change over different forest types of Pakistan in different 69
seasons during 1961-2000
Table 4.28 Mean precipitation (mm) regime over different forest types for different seasons 74
(1961–2000)
Table 4.29 Mean precipitation change (%) over different forest types for different seasons 75
during the period 1961-2000
CHAPTER – 5
Table 5.1 Annual Mean Temperature (°C) Projections 88
Table 5.2 Winter (DJF) Mean Temperature (°C) Projections 88
Table 5.3 Spring (MA) Mean Temperature (°C) Projections 89
Table 5.4 Summer (MJ) Mean Temperature (°C) Projections 89
Table 5.5 Monsoon (JAS) Mean Temperature (°C) Projections 90
Table 5.6 Autumn (ON) Mean Temperature (°C) Projections 90
Table 5.7 Annual Maximum Temperature (°C) Projections 91
Table 5.8 Winter (DJF) Maximum Temperature (°C) Projections 91
Table 5.9 Spring (MA) Maximum Temperature (°C) Projections 92
Table 5.10 Summer (MJ) Maximum Temperature (°C) Projections 92
Table 5.11 Monsoon (JAS) Maximum Temperature (°C) Projections 93
Table 5.12 Autumn (ON) Maximum Temperature (°C) Projections 93
Table 5.13 Annual Minimum Temperature (°C) Projections 94
Table 5.14 Winter (DJF) Minimum Temperature (°C) Projections 94
Table 5.15 Spring (MA) Minimum Temperature (°C) Projections 95
Table 5.16 Summer (MJ) Minimum Temperature (°C) Projections 95
Table 5.17 Monsoon (JAS) Minimum Temperature (°C) Projections 96
Table 5.18 Autumn (ON) Minimum Temperature (°C) Projections 96
Table 5.19 Annual Precipitation Projections (%) 97
Table 5.20 Winter (DJF) Precipitation Projections (%) 97
Table 5.21 Spring (MA) Precipitation Projections (%) 98
Table 5.22 Summer (MJ) Precipitation Projections (%) 98
Table 5.23 Monsoon (JAS) Precipitation Projections (%) 99
Table 5.24 Autumn (ON) Precipitation Projections (%) 99
Table 5.25 Annual Wind (m/s) Projections at 10 Meters 100
Table 5.26 Winter (DJF) Wind (m/s) Projections at 10 Meters 100
Table 5.27 Spring (MA) Wind (m/s) Projections at 10 Meters 101
Table 5.28 Summer (MJ) Wind (m/s) Projections at 10 Meters 101
Table 5.29 Monsoon (JAS) Wind (m/s) Projections at 10 Meters 102
Table 5.30 Autumn (ON) Wind (m/s) Projections at 10 Meters 102
Table 5.31 Projected temperature (°C) (Mean, Max. and Min.) ranges for A2 Scenario 103
Table 5.32 Projected temperature (°C) (Mean, Max. and Min.) ranges for B2 Scenario 104
Table 5.33 Projected temperature change (Maximum and Minimum) for A2 Scenario by 105
2050s
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Table 5.34 Projected temperature change (Maximum and Minimum) for A2 Scenario by 106
2080s
Table 5.35 Projected precipitation (%) ranges for A2 Scenario 107
Table 5.36 Projected precipitation (%) ranges for B2 Scenario 108
Table 5.37 Projected wind speed (m/s) ranges for A2 Scenario 109
Table 5.38 Projected wind speed (m/s) ranges for B2 Scenario 110
CHAPTER – 6
Table 6.1 Projected Tree/timber line under A2-scenario 128
Table 6.2 Projected Tree/timer line under B2-scenario 129
Table 6.3 Projected change in the area of different forest types under A2-scenario 131
relative to the Baseline area for the time period of 1978-2006
Table 6.4 Projected change in the area of different forest types under B2-scenario 132
relative to the Baseline area for the time period of 1978-2006
Table 6.5 Projected change in forest out-turn under A2-scenario relative to the 137
Baseline output for the time period of 1972-2006
Table 6.6 Projected change in forest out-turn under B2-scenario relative to the 138
Baseline output for the time period of 1972-2006
Table 6.7 Projected increase in growing degree-days during winter in different forest types 143
Table 6.8 Projected increase in growing degree-days during spring in different forest types 143
Table 6.9 Projected increase in growing degree-days during summer in different forest 144
types
Table 6.10 Projected increase in growing degree-days during monsoon in different forest 144
types
Table 6.11 Projected increase in growing degree-days during autumn in different forest types 145
iv
LIST OF FIGURES
CHAPTER – 1
Fig. 1.1 Physical Map of Pakistan 2
Fig. 1.2 Aridity Index Map of Pakistan 3
Fig. 1.3 Land cover / land use map of Pakistan 7
Sites selected by GCISC and PFI for different forest types of Pakistan for 8
Fig. 1.4 assessment of past climate changes and for downscaling climate change scenarios
CHAPTER – 3
Fig. 3.1 Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide methane and CFC-11 resulting 26
from the four IPCC emissions scenarios [source: WG1, full report]
Fig. 3.2 (Left) Simulations of the increase in global mean temperature from 1850-1990 27
due to observed increases in greenhouse gases, and predictions of the rise between
1990 and 2100 resulting from the IPCC Scenario B, C and D emissions, with the
Business-as Usual case for comparison. (Right) Simulation of the increase in
global mean temperature from 1850-1990 due to observed increases in
greenhouse gases, and predictions of the rise between 1990 and 2100 resulting
from the Business-as-Usual emissions
Fig. 3.3 CO2 emissions from energy, cement production and deforestation 29
Fig. 3.4 Schematic illustration of SRES scenarios 30
Fig. 3.5 Anthropogenic emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O and Sulphur dioxide for the six 31
illustrative SRES scenarios, A1B, A2, B1 and B2, A1FI and A1T. For comparison
the IS92a scenario is also shown (IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios,
1996).
Fig. 3.6 The Earth’s surface temperature is shown year by year (in bars) and 35
approximately decade by decade (in lines). There are uncertainties in the annual
data (thin black whisker bars represent the 95% confidence range). Over both the
last 140 years and 100 years, the best estimate is that the global average surface
temperature has increased by 0.6 ± 0.2°C
Fig. 3.7 Simulated temperature: (a) done with only natural forcings: solar variation and 36
volcanic activity (b) done with anthropogenic forcings: greenhouse gases and an
estimate of sulphate aerosols (c) done with both natural and anthropogenic
forcings included
Fig. 3.8 (a, b) Temperature projections by 2100: “results are relative to 1990 and shown for 37
1990 to 2100
Fig. 3.9 Model projections of global mean warming compared with observed warming. 38
Fig. 3.10 Global mean temperature trends since 1850 40
Fig. 3.11 Annual mean temperature change (°C) for 1901-2000 over Pakistan 41
Fig. 3.12 Annual precipitation change (mm) for 1901-2000 over Pakistan 41
Fig. 3.13 Different climatic zones of Pakistan. 42
Fig. 3.14 Projected changes in average temperature over Pakistan for A2 scenario based on 44
the ensemble of 13 GCMs
Fig. 3.15 Projected changes in average temperature over Pakistan for A1B scenario based 45
on the ensemble of 17 GCMs
Fig. 3.16 Projected changes in percentage precipitation over Pakistan for A2 scenario based 45
v
Fig. 3.17 Projected changes in average temperature over Pakistan for A1B scenario based 46
CHAPTER – 4
Fig. 4.1 Temperature Regimes (T°C) for (a) Mean (b) Maximum and (c) Minimum 66
Temperatures corresponding to various seasons during 1961-2000 for different
forest types
Fig. 4.2 Mean temperature changes (ΔT°C) corresponding to various seasons during 67
1961-2000 over different Forest types of Pakistan
Fig. 4.3 Maximum temperature changes (ΔT°C) corresponding to various seasons during 67
Fig. 4.4 Minimum temperature changes (ΔT°C) corresponding to various seasons during 68
Fig. 4.5 Precipitation distribution (mm) corresponding to various seasons during 1961- 75
2000 over different Forest types of Pakistan
Fig. 4.6 Precipitation changes (%) corresponding to various seasons during 1961-2000 76
over different Forest types of Pakistan
Fig. 4.7 Decadal Variation in Autumn precipitation during 1961-2000 for RF-2 78
Fig. 4.8 Decadal Variation in Autumn precipitation during 1961-2000 for MF 78
CHAPTER – 5
Fig. 5.1 Annual Mean Temperature projections for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest 111
regions of Pakistan
Fig. 5.2 Mean Temperature projections in winter for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest 111
regions of Pakistan
Fig. 5.3 Mean Temperature projections in spring for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest 112
regions of Pakistan
Fig. 5.4 Mean Temperature projections in summer for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different 112
forest regions of Pakistan
Fig. 5.5 Mean Temperature projections in monsoon for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different 113
Fig. 5.6 Mean Temperature projections in autumn for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different 113
Fig. 5.7 Annual Maximum Temperature projections for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different 114
Fig. 5.8 Maximum Temperature projections in winter for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different 114
Fig. 5.9 Maximum Temperature projections in spring for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different 115
Fig. 5.10 Maximum Temperature projections in summer for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different 115
Fig. 5.11 Maximum Temperature projections in monsoon for A2 & B2 Scenarios in 116
different forest regions of Pakistan
Fig. 5.12 Maximum Temperature projections in autumn for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different 116
Fig. 5.13 Annual Minimum Temperature projections for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different 117
Fig. 5.14 Minimum Temperature projections in winter for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different 117
Fig. 5.15 Minimum Temperature projections in spring for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different 118
vi
Fig. 5.16 Minimum Temperature projections in summer for A2 & B2 Scenarios in 118
Fig. 5.17 Minimum Temperature projections in monsoon for A2 & B2 Scenarios in 119
Fig. 5.18 Minimum Temperature projections in autumn for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different 119
Fig. 5.19 Annual Precipitation projections for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest regions 120
of Pakistan
Fig. 5.20 Precipitation projections in winter for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest 120
regions of Pakistan
Fig. 5.21 Precipitation projections in spring for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest 121
regions of Pakistan
Fig. 5.22 Precipitation projections in summer for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest 121
regions of Pakistan
Fig. 5.23 Precipitation projections in monsoon for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest 122
regions of Pakistan
Fig. 5.24 Precipitation projections in autumn for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest 122
regions of Pakistan
Fig. 5.25 Annual Wind speed projections for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest regions 123
of Pakistan
Fig. 5.26 Wind speed projections in winter for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest 123
regions of Pakistan
Fig. 5.27 Wind speed projections in spring for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest 124
regions of Pakistan
Fig. 5.28 Wind speed projections in summer for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest 124
regions of Pakistan
Fig. 5.29 Wind speed projections in monsoon for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest 125
regions of Pakistan
Fig. 5.30 Wind speed projections in autumn for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest 125
regions of Pakistan
vii
ACRONYMS
Most of the Acronyms and abbreviation, wherever they appear in text, are defined.
AP Alpine Pastures
AR4 Fourth Assessment Report
AR5 Fifth Assessment Report
AOGCM Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Model
CRU Climate Research Unit
DSTBL Dry Sub-Tropical Broad-leaved
DT Dry Temperate
DTT Dry Tropical Thorn
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
GCISC Global Change Impact Studies Centre
GCOS Global Climate Observing System
GCM Global Circulation Model
FAR First Assessment Report
GHG Greenhouse Gas
ICTP Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics
IP Irrigated Plantations
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
KP Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
MoEnv Ministry of Environment
MF Mangrove Forests
MPI Max Planck Institute
viii
MT Moist Temperate
NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research
NFP National Forest Programme
OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
PC Planning Commission
PMD Pakistan Meteorological Department
PRECIS Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies
RCM Regional Climate Model
RF Riverine Forests
SA Sub-Alpine
SAR Second Assessment Report
SRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios
SST Sea Surface Temperature
STP Sub-Tropical Pine
TAR Third Assessment Report
UN United Nations
WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority
WMO World Meteorological Organization
WRF Weather Research and Forecasting
ix
Chapter 1
Introduction
1.1 Geographic and Physiographic Features of Pakistan
Pakistan is a country within South Asia and located approximately within the latitudes 24°N to
37° N and longitudes 61°E to 76°E. It is bordered on the west by Iran, on the west and northwest
by Afghanistan, on the north and northeast by China, on the east and southeast by India, and on
the south by the Arabian Sea (Fig. 1.1). It has a total land area of 87.98 million ha, including
sections of Kashmir under its control. Physically it has the vast and rich irrigated plains of the
mighty Indus River and its tributaries covering major parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Punjab
and Sindh provinces. The stark deserts of Cholistan (Punjab) and Thar (Sindh), the inter-montane
valleys of KP and the awe-inspiring rugged plateaus of Balochistan and the meeting point of the
Himalayas, the Hindukush, and the Karakorams in the Northern areas are some of the most
varied features of the country’s landscape. The northern mountains abound in glaciers with
sizable ones in the Karakoram Range. The glacial area covers some 13,680 sq. km which
represents an average of 13 percent of mountain regions of the upper Indus Basin. 35 giant
peaks, around 24,000 ft. high, with many peaks higher than 26,000 ft. K2, the world’s second
highest peak, located in the Karakoram Range, tops at 28,250 ft. Besides these peaks and
glaciers, the region abounds in large lakes, the green valleys, numerous streams and rivulets,
forests of pine and junipers and a vast variety of fauna and flora (GCISC, 2009a).
South of the northern highlands and west of the Indus River are the Safed Koh Range along the
Afghanistan border and the Sulaiman and Kirthar Ranges which define the western extent of the
province of Sindh and reach almost to the coast of the Arabian Sea in the south. The Balochistan
Plateau lies in the east of Sulaiman Range. The average altitude is around 2,000 ft. The physical
features of the plateau drastically vary but mountains and basins pre-dominate the scene. Further
south, the coastline of Pakistan is around 990 km long; 270 km belonging to the province of
Sindh and the rest 720 km. to the Balochistan province. The entire coastline of Sindh is studded
with dense forests of mangrove forests, whereas the coastal belt of Balochistan is barren except
for a few spots (GCISC, 2009a).
1
Fig. 1.1: Physical Map of Pakistan
1.2 Climatological Features of Pakistan

The climate of Pakistan varies with altitude, which in turn affects the type of vegetation. It has
some of the world’s highest cold areas that occur above 5,175 masl in the Himalayas and the
hottest low areas in Balochistan and around down in the Indus Plains. Pakistan lies in sub-tropics
and party in the temperate region. A large part of Pakistan is arid to semi-arid with some areas as
hyper-arid in the lower southern half of the country. The coastal climate is confined to a narrow
strip along the coast in the south and south east and a humid belt along the sub-montane regions
of Himalayas (GCISC 2009a). The Aridity Index Map of Pakistan is developed using
meteorological data of Pakistan for some 54 stations (Fig. 1.2). Index is based on C.W.
Thornthwaite (1948), PE (Potential Evapotranspiration) Index (I). The index follows the criteria
as: 31< I as Humid, 16 < I < 31 as Semi arid, 10 < I as arid and I < 10 as Hyper arid.
2
Fig. 1.2: Aridity Index Map of Pakistan
1.3 Current Status of Forests in Pakistan

The existing forest coverage in Pakistan is miserably low mainly due to arid and semi-arid
climatic conditions in large parts of Pakistan (GoP-PC, 2010 & GCISC, 2009a). Some areas are
hyper-arid too in the lower southern half of the country. Most of the forest area is located in the
northern parts of the country (FAO, Working Paper: APFSOS II-WP-2009-28) mainly in KP,
Northern Areas and Azad Jammu & Kashmir. Out of a total land area of 87.98 million ha, the
natural forests accounted for 4.72 million ha in 2004 (Wani B.A. et al. 2004) which brought the
forest cover area to 5.36% of the total land area.
Around 80% of the area defined as forest in Pakistan actually has tree cover, while the rest is
largely denuded (GoP/IUCN, 1993). The fraction of land area under forest cover in different
parts of the country also varies a great deal: Balochistan: 0.7%, Punjab: 2.8%, Sindh: 2.8%,
Northern Areas: 9.5%, NWFP: 16.6%, Azad Jammu and Kashmir: 20.7% (GoP-PC, 2010).
1.4 Forests’ Role in our Socio-economic Sector

Forests play a significant role in land conservation, regulation of flow of water, reduction of
sedimentation in water channels and reservoirs and maintenance of ecological balance (GoP-PC,
2010). They also supplement the fuel needs as a benign alternative to fossil fuels and fulfill the
3
timber requirements. Plants have a great role, through their photosynthesis process, that they
harness the sun’s energy to drive this chemical process that melds carbon with water, produce the
substance of the plant in terms of its stem and leaf and release oxygen. During darkness when the
process of photosynthesis comes to halt, plants respire, just as humans do. They breathe in
oxygen and exhale carbon dioxide (CO2). Over the long life span of trees in undisturbed forest
ecology, huge reservoirs of carbon are stored for great stretches of time in the organic matter in
soil as well as in living wood (http://plummershollow.wordpress.com/2008/05/05/). The plants
thus can play the role of carbon sequestration which means the long term storage of CO2 or other
forms of carbon, which can be met through afforestation and reforestation.
1.5 Climate Change and Forestry

Global climate change resulting from an increasing concentrations of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)
in the atmosphere caused by the use of fossil fuels and other human activities is now an
established phenomenon and its effect have been observed in most parts of the world including
Pakistan (GoP-PC, 2010). In view of the threats it poses to different socioeconomic
developments, it is now a challenging issue for planners, policy makers and scientists alike. The
forestry sector is no exception to the adverse impacts of climate change. On the one hand, the
rate of change in the values of climate parameters may be too fast to allow gradual migration of
various tree species to neighbouring areas with relatively more favourable climatic conditions.
High temperature and increased precipitation may also increase forest insects, pests and weeds,
which may result in greater damage to forest vegetation. As a result, the most likely impacts of
climate change will be decreased productivity, tree line shift, changes in species composition,
reduction of forest area, change in growing seasons and tree phenology etc.
Besides the above situation which forests can confront in a changing climate environment, they
have their role as carbon sinks to mitigate climate change. Vision 2030 of Planning Commission,
Government of Pakistan also seeks to exploit the potentials of forests as mitigating agent of
climate change. Current debates are therefore centered as to how carbon sequestration and
carbon trading can be achieved through afforestation and reforestation. The inadequate
information on the subject requires that data based evidences be generated to see as to how
forests have responded to the past climate changes and what response they would show over the
current century to the projected climate changes, in particular, in climate parameters such as
4
temperature (mean, maximum & minimum), precipitation patterns and wind speed, on annual
and seasonal basis. The integration of climate changes thus is a requirement towards developing
the national response strategy to study and combat impacts of climate change on the forests of
Pakistan.
1.6 Initiation of a Study on the Impact of Climate Change on the Forests of Pakistan
Pakistan Forest Institute (PFI), Peshawar, an attached department of Ministry of Environment,
realized the need of taking up such a project on forests of Pakistan and to conduct a study titled:
"Development of National Response Strategy to combat Impact of Climate Change on Forests of
Pakistan" awarded to it by National Forest Programme (NFP) Facility through the Ministry of
Environment.
1.7 Objectives of the Study

The objectives of the study, as outlined in the study proposal, include:
• Analyzing the extent of climate change, by downscaling the global and regional scenarios,
and its impacts on all eco-regions of Pakistan.
• Ascertaining the most probable scenarios of climate change for all eco-regions.
• Conducting vulnerability assessment for all forest types and pinpointing the most vulnerable
hotspots that need immediate attention.
• Validating different options of mitigating climate change with their relative cost
effectiveness.
• Exploring potential of all available opportunities of carbon trading including CDM, REDD,
Voluntary Mechanism, CSR and CER banking.
• Capacity building of stakeholders/awareness raising about the impact of climate change on
Forests.
• Building a consensus among all stakeholders on vulnerability assessment, mitigation options
and adaptation options.
• Prescribing the most feasible adaptation measures and actions to reduce the drastic impacts
of climate change on forests, indicating roles and responsibilities of different stakeholders.
• Mainstreaming the climate change into national and provincial policies and programmes of
Forestry sector.
5
1.8 Activities outsourced to Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)
Pakistan Forest Institute, Peshawar outsourced some activities of the study to GCISC as per the
details given below:
1.8.1 Analysis of the Past Trends

Published climate data such as temperature, precipitation and wind speed was to be acquired
from different sources such as WMO, Pakistan Meteorological Department, WAPDA, USGS,
UK Cosmos etc. and their time series data to be analyzed to quantify the changes in the above
climatic parameters. The reanalyzed Climate Research Unit, UK’s gridded data for Temperature
(Mean, Maximum and Minimum) and Precipitation is used for the past climate trends. Humidity
is a derived parameter from water vapour in the atmosphere and is very much dependent on the
rainfall and thus is adequately covered by this parameter and not directly used in this study. The
non-availability of glacier data in Pakistan could not make it possible to use this parameter too
for the study.
1.8.2 Critical Review of the Future Scenarios

The four IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Assessment Reports mainly made
the basis for this component. Secondary information published by international organizations and
R & D institutions on the future climate change scenarios for the globe and the South Asia region
were also critically reviewed. In addition to the information gathered from the IPCC reports, the
work done at GCISC for Pakistan also made the basis of this work.
1.8.3 Downscaling Climate Change Scenarios

GCM (Global Circulation Model) based global scenarios are developed at very coarse resolution
i.e. 100-300 km. For intensive analysis and assessment at local levels, downscaling to finer
resolutions (25-50 km) is essential. This was achieved using the high-resolution RCMs (Regional
Climate Models) such as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies) of Hadley
Centre, Met Office, UK of resolution 50 km x 50 km. Further, the impacts of climate change on
forest dynamics were to be analyzed and determined, which was accomplished jointly by GCISC
and an expert of PFI for developing the required indicators to predict the climate change impacts
on forest dynamics.
6
1.9 Study Approach
1.9.1 Selection of Forest Map of Pakistan
1.9.2 Preparation of a gridded Forest Map for Analysis
1.9.3 Data and Methodology
1.9.4 Seasons used for the Study
1.9.5 Chapter Outlines
1.9.1 Selection of a Forest Map of Pakistan

The Land Use Atlas of Pakistan being developed by the Ministry of Environment, Govt. of
Pakistan (June, 2009) provides a land use / land cover map of Pakistan which shows all type of
land covers/land use including forests spread over different parts of the country (Fig. 1.3). These
mainly include: Alpine Pastures, Coniferous Forest, Scrub Forest, Irrigated Plantation, Riverine
Forest and Mangrove Forest.
Fig. 1.3: Land cover / land use map of Pakistan
1.9.2 Preparation of a gridded Forest Map for Analysis

A gridded forest map with grids of size 0.5° x 0.5° compatible with the international data used
for the past and projected climate changes was finalized (Fig. 1.4) jointly by GCISC and PFI
after consulting the map shown in Fig. 1.3.
7
Fig. 1.4: Sites selected by GCISC and PFI for different forest types of Pakistan for assessment of past
climate changes and for downscaling climate change scenarios
1.9.3 Data and Methodology

Data and methodology is given in the beginning of each chapter, in particular, chapter 4 and 5
where it essentially was required to be given.
1.9.4 Seasons used for the Analysis

Following five seasons for the analysis of past and projected climate changes over different
forest types of Pakistan are used:
• Winter (December-February)
• Spring (March-April)
• Summer (May-June)
• Monsoon (July-September)
• Autumn (October-November)
1.9.5 Chapter Outlines

The study comprises six chapters. Their topics and brief outlines are narrated below:
8
Chapter 1: Introduction
The chapter covers the topics like Pakistan’s location, physical characteristics, climatological
features, forests role in our socio-economic sectors and the linkage of forests to climate change.
The details about the study, its initiation and the objectives are also discussed.
Chapter 2: Forest Types of Pakistan, their Locations and Characteristics

The basic information related to forests in Pakistan falls within the domain of this chapter.
Important species, their climatic conditions, phenology and productivity rates are discussed.
Their Scientific and Common / English names are also included.
Chapter 3: Critical Review of Future Scenarios

A critical review of projected climate change scenarios in the context of four IPCC Assessment
Reports and the work carried out by other R & D institutions is carried out to see whether the
past and projected climate changes carried out for Pakistan and different forest types are in line
with the global changes. The chapter consolidates information from the four IPCC reports: FAR
(First Assessment Report), SAR (Second Assessment Report), TAR (Third Assessment Report)
and AR4 (Fourth Assessment Report), published respectively in 1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007.
Work done at GCISC for the future projections developed over Pakistan and its sub- regions also
makes part of the chapter.
Chapter 4: Temperature and Precipitation Regime and Past Climate Changes over
different Forest Types of Pakistan
This chapter, besides discussing the temperature (mean, maximum & minimum) and
precipitation regimes, focuses on the past climate changes for Pakistan and over its different
forest types on annual and seasonal basis. Five seasons (Winter: DJF, Spring: MA, Summer: MJ,
Monsoon: JAS and Autumn: ON) as given in para 1.9.4 are used. Methodology used in the
chapter is explained in the beginning of the chapter.
Chapter 5: Projected Climate Changes over different Forest Types of Pakistan

Projected climate changes are developed over Pakistan and over different forest types by
downscaling the outputs of ECHAM4, a GCM of Max Plank Institute (MPI), Germany using the
Regional Climate Model PRECIS (Providing REgional Climate for Impact Studies) of Hedley
Centre, UK. Results are drawn for all forest types for temperature (mean, maximum &
9
minimum), precipitation and wind speed at 10 m height using the IPCC, SRES Scenarios A2 and
B2 on annual and seasonal basis.
Chapter 6: Climate Change and the Forest Indicators

The chapter provides information on the forest indicators developed using the results drawn in
chapters 4 and 5 on past and projected climate changes. Forest indicators, such as tree / timber
line shift, changes in forest area and in vegetation composition, forest out – turn, growing
seasons, tree phenology and insect pests’ occurrence are discussed in the context of past and
projected climate changes and conclusions drawn.
------------------------------------------- x x x x x x x --------------------------------------------
10
Chapter 2
Forest types of Pakistan, their Locations and Characteristics
2.1 Introduction
The forests of Pakistan reflect great physiographic, climate and edaphic contrasts in the country.
The type and distribution of forests are closely linked to altitude. In areas above the snow line,
there is hardly any vegetation. Alpines grow just below the snow line. From 100 to 4000 meters,
Coniferous forests are found. Irrigated plantations are found below 1000 meters
(http://www.friendsmania/forum/b_com_part_1_Pakistanstudiesnotes/27006.htm). The Riverine
forests in Sindh occur on the flood plains and along the banks of major rivers, forming the Indus
Basin. Mangrove forests have their habitats in the Indus deltaic swamps. A brief account of the
geography and characteristics of different forests types is given in the subsequent paragraphs:
2.2 Alpine Pastures (AP)

High Altitude Alpine Pastures are located between around 3,000 m elevation above mean sea
level (amsl) and perpetual snow fields at around 4,000 m in the northern and north-western parts
of the country. These pastures are found in the region where three famous and massive mountain
ranges namely; Himalayas, Hindukush and Karakorum, located in Greater Himalayas, meet.
These include the northern districts of Chitral, Swat, Dir and Kohistan. Alpine forests are present
in Pakistan in shrub formations. These are 1 m to 2 m high and extend 150 m or more above the
sub-alpine forests. Due to long severe winters, dwarfed and stunted trees of Silver Fir (Abies
webbiana), Juniper (Juniperus spp.) take place (FAO, 1997: Working Paper No:
APFSOS/WP/11, 1997 and UNEP/EAP.TR/95-06, Dec 1998). Important forest tree species, their
climatic conditions and growth rates in Pakistan are shown in Table 2.1.
Due to regular moisture supply in the alpine pastures, these are excellent grazing lands but
because of their low productivity they are susceptible to overgrazing by nomadic and semi
nomadic grazing livestock.
These alpine pastures, besides being summer grazing grounds, are also important sources of
water supply to the river systems through snow melt during the almost dry period of April-June
11
every year. Their deterioration due to over grazing may cause the drastic changes in water supply
during the critical period. Further these grazing lands are important for eco-tourism due to their
spectacular landforms and greenery.
2.3 Coniferous Forests

These forests depending upon their latitude wise locations have different biomes: i) Sub-Alpine,
ii) Dry Temperate, iii) Moist Temperate, iv) Sub-tropical Pine,. Types i) and ii) are located in
Greater Himalayan region (the winter rainfall dominated region ) above 35.25°N and the later
two, ii) and iii), in the sub-montane region (the monsoon rainfall dominated region) between
33.75°N and 35.25°N. Because of their different locations, these have been separately dealt with,
for working out the past and projected climate changes.
2.3.1 Sub-Alpine Forests (SA)

There are the evergreen formation of Conifer forests in the Himalayas and other mountain ranges
between 3,350 m and 3,800 m elevation, occurring in Azad Kashmir, Northern Areas and
Malakand and Hazara Civil Divisions of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). The tree vegetation
such as Himalayan sliver fir (Abies pindrow) and blue pine (Pinus wallichiana) are the important
conifer species which occur mostly in pure form with a lower storey of broad-leaved trees among
which Betula utilis (Birch, Bhuj) is typically prominent. Other associates such as Prunus and
Salix (Willow, bed) spp. and Vibernum (Guch) bushes complete the cover. The trees in this zone
are comparatively of short stature in height. There is a spring flush of herbaceous flora, among
which Primula, Ramunculaceous and many composite species are conspicuous. Ferns are also in
abundance. Acontitum heterophyllum, A. chasmanthum, A. leave and Saussurea lappa plants are
important medicinally and are intensively exploited for their uses.
2.3.2 Dry Temperate Forests (DT)

These are open evergreen forests with open scrub undergrowth. These forests are distributed
throughout the dry inner mountain ranges, beyond the effective reach of the monsoon and are
met with in the Northern Areas, Azad Kashmir (Neelum Valley), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Chitral
and Kaghan Valley) and in Balochistan (Takht-i-Suleman, Shinghar and Ziarat) occurring at
1,525 m to 3,350 m and often higher.
12
The tree species dominating the natural vegetation are mostly the conifers. The main species are
Cedrus deodara (Deodar), Pinus gerardiana (Chilghoza), juniperus excelsa, Pinus wallichiana,
Picea smithiana. Quercus ilex predominates as pure crop on lower elevations. The commonly
found associates are Fraxinus and Acer spp. The scrub vegetation includes xeromorphic species
of Daphne, Lonicera, Prunus, Artemisia, Astragalus and Ephedra. Medicinal plants like Ephedra
nebrodensis, Artemisia maritime, Carum bulbocastanum, Thymus sp. and Ferula sp. are
exploited commercially. Dried fruits of walnut (Juglans regia), Chilghoza (Pinus gerardiana)
and unab (Zizyphus vulgare) are collected in sizable quantities to substantiate household income.
2.3.3 Moist Temperate Forests (MT)

The main character of this forest type is the extensive growth of conifers. The formation extends
along the whole length of the outer ranges of the Himalayas between the sub-tropical pine and
the sub-alpine forests, at 1,375 m to 3,050 m altitude varying markedly with aspect and
configuration in Murree Hills, Galliat, Kaghan, Dir, Swat and Azad Kashmir, under an annual
rainfall of about 630-1,500 mm with average annual temperature of 12.2°C. Greater part of the
precipitation is derived from the southwest and southeastern monsoon, received during July to
September. An appreciable amount of precipitation is, however, also brought by the western
disturbances during the winter and spring months. This largely falls as snow and becomes a
factor of considerable importance in determining the type of forest formation.
The main coniferous species are Pinus wallichiana, Cedrus deodara, Picea smithiana and Abies
pindrow, attaining a height of 24-36 m and a diameter of up to 1.5 m. Taxus spp. also occurs
locally in the lower canopy. Among the broad leave trees, Quercus incana, Q. dilatata and Q.
semicarpifolia are the prominent with Rhododendron arboretum as their commonest associate.
The temperate deciduous tree genera such as Acer, Aesculus, Prunus, Ulmus, Fraxinus, Corylus
and Alnus spp. are also met with, forming consociations locally. Litsae and Machilus spp. too,
are locally found in the moist ditches, Evergreen Euonymus and Helex spp. are commonly
associated with the oaks. Among the shrubs, Indigofera, Lonicera, Rosa, Desmodium, Rubus and
Viburnum spp. are typical and Strobilanthus spp. may be locally conspicuous.
A large number of important medicinal plants also occur in this zone. These include Zizyphus
vulgarize, Punica granatum, Berberis lyceum, Skimmia laureola, Viola serpens, Dioscorea
13
deltoidea, Valeriana wallichii, Atropa acuminate, Colchium luteum, Asparagus racemostus, and
Mentha piperita, which are extracted in sizable quantities for commercial purposes.
2.3.4 Sub-Tropical Pine Forests (STP)

Chir (Pinus roxburghii) forests are nearly on their western limits in Pakistan between 925 to
1,675 m, ascending sometimes up to 2,150 m on ridges with southern exposure. They commonly
occur in Hazara, Murree hills and Azad Kashmir, Chir forms practically whole of the top canopy
which may go up to 37.5 m high with 0.8 m diameter. Broad-leaved species include Quercus
incana with occasional Lyonia ovalifolia, Rhododendron arboretum, Pistacia integerrima,
Sizygium cuminii, Maltotus philippinesis, Xylosma longifolia, Quercus glauca, Ficus spp. and
others.
Both the high hill moist and dry temperate forests are located on comparatively steep slopes. As
such, they cannot be managed under the uniform system. These forests commonly work under
selection system which is nothing more than the harvesting trees of specific size. Exploitable size
fixed for all coniferous trees is 50 cm diameter at breast height (dbh). A minimal rotation is also
specified which corresponds to the age at which the trees reach the exploitable size, i.e. 120
years. It is mostly considered as a theoretical figure and used for the purpose of yield
calculations. Intensive forest management, adopting group selection system with artificial plants
is practiced in Kaghan valley and that too at a limited scale.
On the lower elevations, chir forests work under shelter-wood system which is a modified form
of uniform system. The rotation is 100 years for average sites and on the basis of age of trees.
The whole forest is divided into four blocks known as periodic blocks. Regeneration period in
this case is 25 years. However, the rotation period can be brought down to about 70 years when
the sites are highly productive.
2.4 Scrub Forests

These have two main biomes: i) Dry sub-tropical broad leaved (DSTBL), ii) Dry tropical thorn.
Biome (i) is studied in two parts and Biome (ii) in five parts on account of their different
latitudinal locations.
14
2.4.1 Dry Sub-Tropical Broad-leaved Forests (DSTBL)
The area under these forests is badly eroded and forms deep ravines. Torrents are present in the
form of shallow drainage lines, criss-cross the undulating and broken rock and boulders is a
common feature. Weathering of sandstone produces some insoluble matter, forming small units
of infertile soil which supports only a very poor type of vegetation. There are extensive areas of
sheet rock and limestone from where surface soil has entirely disappeared. The climate of whole
of the tract is of extreme nature; winters are cold and summers very hot. Winds blow all through
the summer. The rain is received in July and August and again in January and February but it is
erratic, often coming in a few storms with long intervals of aridity.
Although these forests can not be classified as dry forest in the strict sense, but due to poor site
conditions and erratic rainfall, the sites have become more or less arid. These grow in the foot-
hills and lower slopes of the Himalayas, the Salt Range, Kala-Chitta and the Suleman Range.
The forest type occurs throughout the country at suitable elevations, merging downward with the
tropical thorn forests and upwards with the sub-tropical pine and temperate forests. These are
forests of low branchy trees, varying in density from complete closure under the most favourable
conditions to scattered single trees or groups on the dry sites. The type has a fair amount of shrub
growth but that too varies in density. The tree species are mostly thorny and often have small
evergreen leaves. The diameters of reasonable dimensions can be seen in those valleys where
deep soil and enough moisture are available. The main species are Olea feruginea, Acacia
modesta, Pistacia integerrima, Dodonea viscose, Reptonia buxifolia, Capparis deciduas, Tecoma
undulate, Gymnosporia royleana and Zizyphus nummularia.
The requirements of the people such as grazing of their cattle, sheep, goats and camels; firewood
for heating and cooking; small timber for agricultural implements and for building etc. are
commonly met with from these forests.
These forests provide valuable protective cover to the watersheds and are a source of fuel wood
and fodder to local communities. Therefore, the main management objective of these forests is
protection. Due to adverse site conditions and nature of tree species these forests are not much
productive in terms of timber and fuel wood.
15
Soil and water conservation are the important objectives of management of these forests. For
this, check damming and gully plugging, etc. is done to assist reforestation/afforestation effort
through direct sowing of seed or planting of seedlings. In view of the protective value and as
habitat for some important wildlife, the commercial exploitation of these forests is banned under
law.
2.4.2 Dry Tropical Thorn Forests (DTT)

This is the natural vegetation over whole of the Indus plain, known as Rakh forests in the upper
and Desert forests in the lower part of the country. The species have the capacity to survive and
grow in an area where the highest temperature of 45oC is often recorded and the rainfall varying
from 75 to140 mm with the number of rainy days on the average being only 16 a year.
The vegetation consists of trees which are usually thorny and stunted, dominated by Acacia spp.
The usual species are; Acacia modesta, A. nilotica, A. Senegal, A. jacquemontii, Salvadora
oleoides, Prosopis cineraria, Tamarix aphylla, Zizyphus mauritiana, Z. mumularia, Capparis
deciduas, Tecoma undulate, Calotropis procera, Commiphora mukul and Euphorbia
caudicifolia. Of these, A. Senegal, A. jacquemontii, C. mukul and Euphorbia occur in the
subtropical semi-arid maritime region. While the sand-dunal tracts are over-grown by species of
Calligonum, saline parts are occupied by species of Sueda, Salsola, Haloxylon and Salvadora
persica and areas which are periodically inundated with waters also have Tamarix dioica.
Among the grasses, species of Aristida, Eleusine, Panicum, Cenchrus and Lasiurus are prevalent
on relevant habitats.
This forest vegetation is very much disturbed by grazing, heavy use by the public mainly to meet
their fuel wood needs and mostly have disappeared. The other main reason is the development of
agriculture at places where irrigation water is available. In the absence of any commercially
important tree species, complexity of ownership and harsh climate is of least interest to the forest
department. There is, therefore, no systematic management of these forests, except for some
protection given to certain areas as wildlife habitats.
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2.5 Irrigated Plantations (IP)
These forests are the outcome of human efforts on sub-marginal lands where irrigation water
could be made available. The plantations are created after clearing the vast tropical thorn forests.
These are spread in the plains of Pakistan, primarily in the provinces of the Punjab and Sindh.
Size of such plantations varies from 200 to 8,000 ha. Major species grown include Dalbergia
sissoo, Moris alba, Bombax ceiba, Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Acacia nilotica, Melia azedarach,
Populas species and Salix species etc.
The plantations are being managed for fire-wood and timber for furniture and sports goods
industry. They also serve as a vast grazing ground for domestic cattle and also provide refuge to
some wildlife. The silvicultural system adopted aims at production of mixed Shisham and
mulberry crops worked on short rotation with over-wood of Shisham standards which are
retained for production of timber.
The principal species namely Dalbergia sissoo is being managed at a rotation age of 20 years for
fuel wood and 40 years for timber with intermediate thinning at an interval of 5-6 years till the
age of 20. At that time, a prescribed part is a clear-felled part, leaving behind 30-35 trees/ha, well
scattered as “standards” with the best phenotype to reach the age of 40 years to provide timber.
An under story of mulberry is introduced after first thinning of the Shisham crop if not already
come up naturally through seed carried by irrigation water. Fast growing species such as poplars
and eucalypts for medium quality woods have been introduced to increase the yield.
2.6 Riverine Forests (RF)

These forests, commonly known as the “Bela forests” in Punjab and “Riverine forests” in Sindh
occur on the flood plains and banks of the major rivers, forming the Indus Basin. Actual flooding
for about 6 weeks appears to be necessary for their good growth. Erosion and deposition in
succession is a constant feature. Main species include Acacia nilotica, Tamarix aphylla, Tamarix
dioica, Prosopis cineraria, Dalbergia sissoo and to some extent, Populus euphratica.
The objectives of the management of these forests are production of fuelwood, charcoal and
timber for mining and furniture industry. Proper management and existence of these forests
depends on a regular inundation of water without which these cannot perpetuate. Silvicultural
17
system adopted in the Acacia nilotica riverain forests is clear felling with a rotation of 15-25
years, followed by artificial regeneration by broad-casting before, during and after inundation
(abkalani). Natural regeneration by means of root-suckers and coppice is encouraged in the case
of bahan (Populus euphratica) and kandi (Prosopis cineraria).
Shisham (Dalbergia sissoo) is the principal species in the bela forests of Punjab. These forests
under the clear felling system with regeneration from root suckers, supplemented by artificial
planting where necessary. Blank stable areas are planted up with root-shoot cuttings of Shisham
under the well known “bela planting technique”. Due to construction of reservoirs and irrigation
works, annual inundation has become inadequate and erratic with the result that the cycle has
been disturbed. Consequently, many of the bela and riverine forests have depleted and it has
become difficult to regenerate them naturally.
2.7 Mangrove Forests (MF)

More or less dense evergreen forests of very low average height, further reduced by biotic
agencies, occur in the Indus deltaic swamps on the coast of Karachi and Lasbela. Avicennia
marina is the most important tree in these forests. The adverse edaphic factors, too, have not
allowed the natural regeneration to establish.
Other tree associates are Rhizophora mucronata and Ceriops tagal. All the tree species are
markedly gregarious, evergreen with leathery leaves. The best patches reach 6-7 meter (m) in
height and are found on sites difficult to access on account of soft mud; elsewhere the crop rarely
reaches 3m. These forests have not been managed scientifically so far.
Mangroves are under no commercial exploitation threat and play only the function of protection
and a habitat for wildlife, especially bird species and breeding grounds for fish, especially
shrimps. But still these are under heavy pressure of grazing and fuel wood collection. Even now
this vast area is being used as grazing ground for thousands of domestic animals which are
transported in the morning in large boats to the forest and brought back in the evenings.
However, these are under the control of the forest departments of Sindh and Balochistan
provinces and declared as protected forests.
18
The mangroves play a very important and economic role for the fishermen and the nomads.
Fishermen earn their living from fish, shrimps and crabs and collect wood for heating and
cooking. The nomads, who are professional graziers, use all vegetation within easy reach to keep
their livestock alive.
Information regarding important forest tree species with different forest types and related
climatic conditions are consolidated in Table 2.1
19
Table 2.1: Important forest tree species, their climatic conditions and productivity rates in Pakistan
S. No. Scientific Common Forest type Temp. PPT Range Phenology Productivity
name name range (°C) (mm/year) (m3 ha-1 yr-1)
1 Abies pindrow Silver fir SA, MT -10 to 30 1100 to Apr-May 4.0 to 6.0
2500
2 Pinus Blue pine MT, DT, SA -20 to 35 300 to 1500 Apr-Jun 5.0 to 8.0
wallichiana
3 Pinus Chalghoza DT -20 to 35 370 to 750 Jun-Jul -
gerardiana pine
4 Cedrus Deodar DT, MT -20 to 30 1000 to Jun-Sept 6.0 to 9.0
deodara 2000
5 Juniper Juniper DT -30 to 30 200-2500 May-Jun -
excelsa
6 Picea Spruce DT, MT -20 to 35 1000 to Apr-May 4.0 to 6.0
smithiana 2500
7 Pinus Chir pine STP -05 to 40 450 to 1625 Jan-Apr 7.0 to 14.0
roxburghii
8 Quercus White oak STP -10 to 35 1000 to Apr-May 2.1
incana 2300
9 Acacia Phulai DSTBL, -05 to 40 250 to 1300 Mar-May 4.0 to 6.0
modesta DTT
10 Albizia lebbek Black siris DSTBL, IP 04 to 40 400 to 1000 Apr-May 5.0
11 Albizia White siris DSTBL, IP 01 to 45 500 to 1000 Jun-Aug 10.0
procera
12 Olea Kahu, DSTBL -10 to 40 250 to 1000 Mar-Sept 0.25
ferruginea Olive cm3/ha/yr
13 Acacia Babul, DTT, RF 01 to 45 125 to 1300 Jun-Jul 4.0 to 15.0
nilotica Kikar
14 Tamarix Frash DTT, LP -01 to 50 100 to 500 Apr-Sept 5.0 to 10.0
aphylla
15 Prosopis Jand DTT -06 to 45 75 to 650 Dec-May 3.0 to 5.0
cineraria
16 Dalbergia Shisham IP, RF 0 to 50 900 to 1500 Mar-May 7.7
sissoo
17 Eucalyptus Lachi IP -05 to 40 200 to 1250 May-Jun 1.0 to 25.0
camaldulensis
18 Morus alba Mulberry IP -10 to 40 750 to 1250 Feb-Apr 5.0 to 8.5
20 Populus Poplar RF -10 to 45 750 to 1250 Jan-Jun 8.0 to 15.0
euphratica
21 Avicennia Timar MF 05 to 40 Up to 125 Feb-Jun 4.5 to 5.2
marina
RF = Riverain forest LP = Linear plantation
20
Some other important plant species of different forest types with their scientific as well as
common names are shown in Table 2.2.
Table 2.2: Important plant species and their scientific and common names
1. Alpine Pasture
Scientific name Common/English name

Betula utilis Birch
Salix spp Kharolla
Juniperus communis (Sanobor) Dwarft
Artimisia maritiana Artimisia
Lonicera spp
2. Sub-Alpine Forests

Cedrus deodara Deodar
Taxus baccata Barmi
Picea smithiana Spruce
Abies pindrow Fir
Betula utilis Birch
Salix limdleyana Kharolla
Juniperus communis Sanobor
3. Himalayan Dry Temperate Forests

Pinus wallichiana Kail
Abies pindrow Fir
Taxus baccata Barmi
Quercus ilex Shah Baloot
Juniperus excelsa Sanobor
Pinus gerardiana Chalgoza
Juglans regia Walnut
Ephedra nebrodensis Ephedra
21
4. Himalayan Moist Temperate Forests

Pinus wallichiana Kail
Abies pindrow Fir
Taxus baccata Barmi
Quercus dilatata Oak
Aesculus indica Bankhor
5. Sub-Tropical Pine Forests

Pinus roxburghii Chir
Quercus incana Oak
6. Dry Sub-Tropical Broad-Leaved Forests

Acacia modesta Phulai
Olea ferruginea Zatoon
Dodonaea viscosa Ghuriskai
Reptonia buxifolia -
Pistacia integerrima Kangar
Tecomella undulata Forest fire
7. Dry Tropical Thorn Forests

Acacia modesta Phulai
Acacia nilotica Kikar
Prosopis cineraria Jand
Tamarix aphyla Ghazh
Zizyphus spp Ber
Salvadora oleoides Pilu
Euphorbia spp Euphorbia
22
8. Irrigated Plantations

Bombax ceiba Sumbal
Dalbergia sissoo Shisham
Cassia fistula Amaltas
Albizzia lebbek Siris
Melia azederach Bakain
Azadirachta indica Neem
Euphorbia spp Euphorbia
Morus alba Mulberry
Eucalyptus camaldulensis Eucalyptus
Populus spp Poplar
Acacia nilotica Kikar
9. Mangrove Forests

Avicennia marina Timar
Rhizophora spp Kamo
------------------------------------------- x x x x x x x --------------------------------------------
23
Chapter 3
Critical Review of Future Scenarios
3.1 Introduction
The four IPCC Assessment Reports provide for the current century, an evolutionary picture of
the future scenarios on global and regional scales. A critical review of the same and that of the
work done on the topic by other international / national organizations and R & D institutions is
desirable too to see whether the projected changes in the climate parameters developed using the
higher resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) by downscaling the outputs of Global
Circulation Model (GCM) over Pakistan and over its various forest types are reasonably
acceptable and more or less, in line with the global changes. Besides the IPCC Assessments
Reports, the work done at GCISC on the past and projected climate changes on global and
regional scales also makes part of this chapter.
3.2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a leading body, established in 1988
by United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and World Meteorological Organization
(WMO) to assess the scientific, technical and socio-economic information that relates to human
induced climate changes. It was established following a demand by the G7 countries (USA,
Japan, Germany, France, Great Britain, Canada, and Italy) to provide the world with a clear
scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-
economic consequences. It is an intergovernmental body, and it is open to all member countries
of UN and WMO.
Four assessment reports have so far been published namely the First Assessment Report (FAR),
Second Assessment Report (SAR), Third Assessment Report (TAR) and Fourth Assessment
Report (AR4) published respectively in 1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007. Work on the Fifth
Assessment Report (AR5) is currently in progress and is intended for publication in 2014. The
reports are based on the works of three groups in which the first working group (WGI) concerns
the physical processes of the climate, and their past or future variations, the second working
group (WGII) assesses the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate
change, negative and positive consequences of climate change, and options for adapting to it,
24
while the third working group (WGIII) assesses options for mitigating climate change through
limiting or preventing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing activities that remove them from
the atmosphere. Since its inception, IPCC has been involved in the development and assessment
of some initial scenarios of possible future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for use in the
assessment of future climate changes. These scenarios have gone under modification right from
its First Assessment Report (FAR, 1990) to its latest Fourth Assessment report (AR4, 2007). A
brief and a critical review of the reliability of the emission scenarios quoted by all the assessment
reports and the future climate change projections based on these scenarios using the climate
models both GCMs and RCMs are discussed.
3.3 IPCC’s Emission Scenarios

The emission scenarios of the IPCC quantifying global green house gas emissions and climate
changes up to the year 2100 have significantly changed during their evolution from FAR, 1990,
through SAR, 1995 and TAR, 2001 to AR4, 2007. The IPCC emission scenarios are intended to
guide scientific investigations and form the basis for analysis by a wide research and policy
community of climate change and other environmental problems. These emission scenarios
consolidated from the four Assessment Reports are described in the subsequent paragraphs:
3.3.1 Emission Scenarios from the First Assessment Report (FAR), 1990 – (SA90 scenarios)
Four emission scenarios (A, B, C and D) were used in FAR. These hypothesized emissions of
carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), carbon
monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) until the year 2100. Estimates of future changes in
population, energy use, and economic progress, were also considered. The scenarios were used
to calculate the future changes in atmospheric concentration of several greenhouse gases
(omitting the most important, water vapor), and from these the potential rise in global surface
temperature, and in sea level, using a range of climate sensitivity figures and computer models.
The storylines of A, B, C and D scenarios, where A is referred to as the Business as Usual (BaU)
are described in Box A. Fig. 3.1 shows the concentrations of different Greenhouse Gases
(GHGs) under the four scenarios used in FAR, 1990.
25
Fig 3.1: Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide methane and CFC-11 resulting from the four
IPCC emissions scenarios [source: WG1, full report].
Box A: Storylines of the scenarios used in FAR
Scenario A - Referred to as ‘Business as Usual’ or the ‘2030 High Emission Scenarios’, assumes
that few or no steps are taken to limit green house gas emissions. Energy use and clearing of
tropical forests continue and fossil fuels, in particular coal remain the world’s primary energy
source. The equivalent of a doubling of pre-industrial C02 levels occurs by around 2025.
Most discussions of the consequences of continued emissions concentrated on this scenario, and
some still do, despite the fact that the scenario itself is obsolete.
Scenario B - Referred to as ‘2060 Low Emissions Scenario’, assumes that a number of

environmental and economic concerns result in steps to reduce the growth of greenhouse gas
emissions. Energy efficiency measures, which might only be possible with government
intervention, are implemented, emissions controls are adopted globally, and the share of the
world's primary energy provided by natural gas increases. Full compliance with the Montreal
Protocol is achieved; tropical deforestation is halted and reversed. Under this scenario, the
cumulative effect of such measures is a C02 equivalent doubling around 2060.
Scenarios C and D – These two scenarios reflect futures where steps in addition to those in the
2060 Low Emissions Scenario are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These steps include
rapid utilization of renewable energy sources, strengthening of the Montreal Protocol, and
adoption of agricultural policies to reduce emissions from livestock systems, rice paddies, and
fertilizers.
According to FAR, under the Business-as-Usual (Scenario A) emissions of greenhouse gases, the
average rate of increase of global mean temperature during the next century is estimated to be
about 0.3°C per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2°C to 0.5°C). This will result in a likely
increase in global mean temperature of about 1°C above the present value (about 2°C above that
in the pre-industrial period) by 2025 and 3°C above today's value (about 4°C above pre-
industrial) before the end of the next century. The projected temperature rise by the year 2100,
26
with high, low and best-estimate climate responses, is shown in Figure 3.2. The global warming
will also lead to increased global average precipitation and evaporation of a few percent by 2030.
Areas of sea-ice and snow are expected to diminish.
Fig 3.2: (Left) Simulations of the increase in global mean temperature from 1850-1990 due to observed
increases in greenhouse gases, and predictions of the rise between 1990 and 2100 resulting from
the IPCC Scenario B, C and D emissions, with the Business-as Usual case for comparison.
(Right) Simulation of the increase in global mean temperature from 1850-1990 due to observed
increases in greenhouse gases, and predictions of the rise between 1990 and 2100 resulting from
the Business-as-Usual emissions.
Under the other IPCC emission scenarios which assume progressively increasing levels of controls,
average rates of increase in global mean temperature over the next century are estimated to be about
0.2°C per decade for Scenario B, just 0.1°C per decade above Scenario C and about 0.1°C per decade
above Scenario D. Only the best-estimate of the temperature rise is shown in each case.
3.3.2 Emission Scenarios used in the Second Assessment Report (SAR, 1995)–(IS92, a-f
Scenarios)
The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment in 1992, presented a new set of six
emission scenarios (IS92 a to f) of future greenhouse gas and aerosol precursor emissions which
included emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, the halocarbons (CFCs and their substitute HCFCs and
HFCs), precursors of tropospheric ozone, sulphate aerosols and aerosols from biomass burning.
The emission scenarios were based on assumptions concerning population and economic growth,
land-use, technological changes, energy availability and fuel mix during the period 1990 to 2100.
The six alternative IS92 Scenarios spanned a broad range of possible futures, including an update
of the 1990 reference scenarios. Table 3.1 goes over the main assumptions made in these
scenarios.
27
Table 3.1: Selective items taken on Summary of Assumptions in the Six IPCC 1992 Alternative
Scenarios [Source: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment
(1992)]
Economic
Scenario Population Period CFCs
Growth
IS92a World Bank 1991 1990-2025 2.9 % Partial Compliance with Montreal
11.3 B by 2100 1990-2100 2.3 % Protocol. Technological transfer results
in gradual phase out of CFCs also in
non-signatory countries by 2075
IS92b World Bank 1991 1990-2025 2.9 % Global compliance with scheduled
11.3 B by 2100 1990-2100 2.3 % phase out of Montreal Protocol
IS92c UN Medium Low 1990-2025 2.0%
Case 6.4 B by 2100 1990-2100 1.2 % Same as "a"
IS92d UN Medium Low 1990-2025 2.7 % CFC production phase out by 1997 for
Case 6.4 B by 2100 1990-2100 2.0 % industrialized countries. Phase out of
HFCFs
IS92e World Bank 1991 1990-2025 3.5.%
11.3 B by 2100 1990-2100 3.0 % Same as "d"
IS92f World Bank 1991
17.6 B by 2100 Same as "a" Same as "a"
The Supplementary Report to the second IPCC Scientific Assessment states that the range of
possible greenhouse gas futures is very wide (Figure 3.3, illustrates only CO2). All six scenarios
can be compared to SA90. As seen from Table 3.1, IS92a is slightly lower than SA90 as higher
population forecasts increase the emission estimates, while phase out of halocarbons and more
optimistic renewable energy costs reduce them. The highest greenhouse gas levels result from
the new scenario IS92e which combines, among other assumptions, moderate population growth,
high economic growth, high fossil fuel availability and eventual hypothetical phase out of
nuclear power. The lowest greenhouse gas level results from IS92c which assumes that
population growth, declines by the middle of the next (now the current) century, the economic
growth is low and that there are severe constraints on fossil fuel supplies.
The scenarios indicate that greenhouse gas emissions could rise substantially over the coming
century (the present) in the absence of new measures explicitly intended to reduce their
emissions. However, IS92c has a CO2 emission path which eventually falls below its starting
1990 level. IS92b, a modification of IS92a, suggests that current commitments by many OECD
28
(Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) member countries to stabilize or
reduce CO2 might have a small impact on greenhouse gas emissions over the next few decades,
but would not offset substantial growth in possible emissions in the long run. IS92b does not take
into account that such commitments could accelerate development and diffusion of low
greenhouse gas technologies, nor possible resulting shifts in industrial mix.
Fig 3.3: CO2 emissions from energy, cement production and deforestation
3.3.3 Emission Scenarios (SRES, 1996) from the Third and Forth Assessment Reports
(TAR, 2001 and AR4, 2007)
The emission scenarios SA90, A-D and IS92 a-f, developed by IPCC respectively in 1990 and
1992 were evaluated in 1995. The evaluation recommended that significant changes (since 1992)
in the understanding of driving forces of emissions and methodologies e.g., the carbon intensity
of energy supply, the income gap between developed and developing countries, and to sulfur
emissions should be addressed. This led to a decision by the IPCC Plenary in 1996 to develop a
new set of scenarios. Four different narrative storylines were developed to describe the
relationships between emission driving forces and their evolution.
The IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES, 1996) discusses these scenarios in
detail. According to the report, for each storyline, several different scenarios were developed
which covered a wide range of the main demographic, economic, and technological driving
forces of GHG and sulfur emissions. The emissions included are anthropogenic emissions of
carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),
perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs),
29
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), the aerosol precursor and the chemically active gases such as sulfur
dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and non-methane volatile organic
compounds (NMVOCs). The scenarios from SRES, 1996 are described below in Fig. 3.4
Fig 3.4: Schematic illustration of SRES scenarios
Four qualitative storylines yield four sets of scenarios called “families”:A1, A2, B1, and B2.
Altogether 40 SRES scenarios were developed by six modeling teams. All are equally valid with
no assigned probabilities of occurrence. The set of scenarios consists of six main scenario groups
drawn from the four families: one group each in A2, B1, B2, and three groups within the A1
family, characterizing alternative developments of energy technologies: A1FI (fossil fuel
intensive), A1B (balanced), and A1T (predominantly non-fossil fuel).
Description of the SRES Storylines is given in Box B.
Box B: Description of SRES Storylines
• The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth,
global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of
new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions,
capacity building, and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in
regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that
describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1
groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil
energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B).
• The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying
theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions
converge very slowly, which results in continuously increasing global population. Economic
development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological
changes are more fragmented and slower than in other storylines.
30
• The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global
population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with
rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions
in material intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The
emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including
improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives.
• The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local
solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously
increasing global population at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic
development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1
storylines. While the scenario is also oriented toward environmental protection and social equity,
it focuses on local and regional levels.
It may be seen that the A scenarios place more emphasis on economic growth, the B scenarios on
environmental protection; the 1 scenarios assume more globalization and the 2 scenarios more
regionalization. Anthropogenic emissions of the three main greenhouse gases, CO2, CH4 and
N2O, together with anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions, are shown for the six illustrative
SRES scenarios in Fig. 3.5. For comparison, emissions are also shown for IS92a. Particularly
noteworthy are the much lower future sulphur dioxide emissions for the six SRES scenarios,
compared to the IS92 scenarios, due to structural changes in the energy system as well as
concerns about local and regional air pollution.
Fig 3.5: Anthropogenic emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O and Sulphur dioxide for the six illustrative SRES
scenarios, A1B, A2, B1 and B2, A1FI and A1T. For comparison the IS92a scenario is also
shown (IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, 1996).
31
3.4 Climate Models used in the IPCC Assessment Reports
The climate system consists of the following five major components: (a) the atmosphere; (b) the
oceans; (c) the terrestrial and marine biospheres; (d) the cryosphere (sea ice, seasonal snow
cover, mountain glaciers and continental scale ice sheets); and (e) the land surface. These
components interact with each other, and through their collective interactions, determine the
Earth’s surface climate. They represent a unique and potentially powerful tool for the study of
the climatic changes that may result from increased concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere.
A climate model represents the physical quantities (e.g., temperature, humidity and wind speed)
which vary continuously in space and time. In the most complex models of the atmosphere and
ocean (referred to as Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models, or AOGCMs), such
quantities are represented by a three-dimensional (longitude-latitude-height) grid with typical
horizontal resolutions of several hundred kilometers. Much progress in the development of these
models has been made, since IPCC TAR, 2001. There are over 20 models from different centers
available for climate simulations. According to the technical summary of the Third Assessment
report, although the large-scale dynamics of these models are comprehensive, parameterizations
are still used to represent unresolved physical processes such as the formation of clouds and
precipitation, ocean mixing due to wave processes and the formation of water masses, etc.
Uncertainty in parameterizations is the primary reason for the climate projections to differ
between different AOGCMs. While the resolution of AOGCMs is rapidly improving, it is often
insufficient to capture the fine-scale structure of climatic variables in many regions. In such
cases, the output from AOGCMs can be used to drive limited-area (or regional climate) models
that combine the comprehensiveness of process representations comparable to AOGCMs with
much higher spatial resolution.
The First Assessment Report used the GCMs of eleven groups. Because of limitations in
computing power, the higher resolution atmospheric models were used only in conjunction with
the simple mixed-layer ocean models.
Many modeling advances have occurred since the SAR. The models took a further advancement
toward the coupled models. Model improvements can, however, be grouped into three
categories. First, the dynamical cores (advection, etc.) have been improved, and the horizontal
32
and vertical resolutions of many models have been increased. Second, more processes have been
incorporated into the models, in particular in the modeling of aerosols, and of land surface and
sea ice processes. Third, the parameterizations of physical processes have been improved. Most
of the models no longer use flux adjustments to reduce climate drift.
In TAR, 2001, thirty one AOGCMs were implemented. These models are the basis for
sophisticated model predictions of future climate. AOGCMs represent the pinnacle of
complexity in climate models and internalize as many processes as possible. They are the only
tools that could provide detailed regional predictions of future climate change. AOGCMs are
able to simulate extreme warm temperatures, cold air outbreaks and frost days reasonably well.
However, they are still under development.
The twenty three GCMs used in AR4 are able to simulate present day frequency and distribution
of cyclones quite well, but intensity is less well simulated. Simulation of extreme precipitation is
dependent on resolution, parameterization, and the thresholds chosen. Also the large-scale
patterns of seasonal variation in several important atmospheric fields are better simulated by
AOGCMs in AR4 than they were at the time of the Third Assessment Report (TAR 2001).
Notably, errors in simulating the monthly mean, global distribution of precipitation, sea level
pressure and surface air temperature have all decreased. In some models, simulation of marine
low-level clouds, which are important for correctly simulating sea surface temperature and cloud
feedback in a changing climate, has also improved. Nevertheless, deficiencies still remain in the
simulation of clouds and tropical precipitation.
The Global Climate Models used in TAR, 2001 and AR4, 2007, used by GCISC for climate
change scenario development are provided in Tables 3.2 and 3.3.
33
Table 3.2: GCMs used at GCISC for climate change scenario development taken from TAR
Research Centre GCM Acronym Resolution

Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques,
France CM3 2.8° x 2.8°
Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organization, Australia Mk3.0 3.2° x 5.6°
Max-Planck-Institut for Meteorology, Germany

ECHAM5-OM 2.8° x 2.8°
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, China FGOALS-g1.0 2.8° x 2.8°

CM2.0 2.2° x 3.8°
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA
CM2.1 1.25° x 2.0°
AOM 4.0° x 3.0°
Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA E-H 4.0° x 5.0°
E-R 5.0° x 4.0°
Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Russia CM3.0 5.0° x 4.0°
Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, France CM4 3.75° x 2.5°
MIROC3.2 hires 1.125° x 1.125°
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
MIROC3.2 medres 2.8° x 2.8°
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan CGCM2.3.2 2.8° x 2.8°
PCM 2.8° x 2.8°
National Centre for Atmospheric Research, USA
CCSM3 2.5° x 1.4°
UK Met. Office, UK HadCM3 2.5°x 3.8°
Table 3.3: GCMs used at GCISC for climate change scenario development taken from AR4
34
3.5 Critical review of the projections by Global Climate Models since SAR
These are discussed separately for temperature and precipitation:
3.5.1 Temperature
IPCC assessments which started in 1990 used global climate models to project global average
temperature increase between about 0.15°C and 0.3°C per decade for 1990 to 2005. This is
comparable with the observed values of global warming of about 0.2°C per decade which
increases our confidence in the near-term future climate projections.
According to the results of the Third Assessment Report, the global average surface temperature
(the average of near surface air temperature over land and sea surface temperature) has increased
since 1861 (Fig.3.6). The figure shows that over the 20th century the increase has been 0.6 ±
0.2°C which is about 0.15°C larger than that was estimated by the SAR for the period up to
1994. This rise in temperature relates to the relatively high temperatures of the additional years
(1995 to 2000) and improved methods of processing the data. It is evident from the Fig. 3.6 that
most of the warming occurred during the two periods of the 20th century i.e., from the year 1910
to 1945 and from the year 1976 to 2000.
Fig 3.6: The Earth’s surface temperature is shown year by year (in bars) and approximately decade by
decade (in lines). There are uncertainties in the annual data (thin black whisker bars represent
the 95% confidence range). Over both the last 140 years and 100 years, the best estimate is that
the global average surface temperature has increased by 0.6 ± 0.2°C.
Further TAR categorized the external forcing responsible for this rise in temperature.
Simulations from the year 1850 to 2000 depicted that the response to natural forcings alone (i.e.
the response to variability in solar irradiance and volcanic eruptions) do not explain the warming
in the second half of the 20th century (Fig. 3.7a). It can be seen from Fig. 3.7b, that inclusion of
35
anthropogenic forcings provides a plausible explanation for a substantial part of the observed
temperature changes over the past century, but the best match with observations is obtained in
(Fig. 3.7c) when both natural and anthropogenic factors were included.
Fig 3.7: Simulated temperature: (a) done with only natural forcings: solar variation and volcanic activity
(b) done with anthropogenic forcings: greenhouse gases and an estimate of sulphate aerosols (c)
done with both natural and anthropogenic forcings included.
These results are also consistent with the second assessment report which concluded that: “The
balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate”.
The Third Assessment Report also provided the projections of climatic variables over the 21st
century. The globally averaged surface temperature was projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8°C
(Fig 3.8 a) over the period 1990 to 2100. Temperature increases were projected to be greater than
those in the SAR, which were about 1.0 to 3.5°C based on the six IS92 scenarios.
The Fourth Assessment Report states that hypothetically, if concentrations of greenhouse gases
could have been stabilized in the year 2000, a committed warming of about 0.1C per decade
averaged over the period 2000 to 2020 would occur, with smaller warming continuing after that.
Of course there are ongoing increases of greenhouse gases, so the models project that no matter
what emission scenario is followed, the combination of climate change commitment and
additional warming from increasing greenhouse gases would result in a warming of about 0.2C
per decade over the next two decades. This is about the rate of warming that is observed in the
past couple of decades.
As the middle part of the 21st century and beyond is approached, it makes a difference regarding
what emissions scenario is chosen to be followed. By 2100 (Fig 3.8 b), there is a spread of
globally averaged surface air temperature increase among the six scenarios considered, with best
estimates ranging from nearly 2°C for a lowest scenario (B1) and about 4°C for the highest
36
scenario (A1FI). Likely ranges for warming at the end of the 21st century are also now provided.
For example, for a low scenario (B1), the warming averaged for 2090-99 relative to 1980-99 has
a best estimate of 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.9°C. For a medium scenario (A1B), the
best estimate is 3.4°C with a likely range of 2.0°C to 5.4°C, and for the highest scenario (A1FI),
the best estimate is 4.0°C with a likely range from 2.4°C to 6.4°C. There are greater values at the
higher end of the ranges due to relatively new understanding regarding the nature of the
feedbacks from the carbon cycle (i.e. how the oceans and land absorb and emit carbon dioxide).
Though only relatively few global coupled climate models include the complex processes
involved with modeling the carbon cycle, this feedback is positive (i.e. adding to more warming)
in all models so far considered. Therefore, the addition of carbon cycle feedbacks provides
higher values on the warm end of the uncertainty ranges.
Fig 3.8 (a, b): Temperature projections by 2100: “results are relative to 1990 and shown for 1990 to 2100
Previous IPCC projections of future climate changes can now be compared to recent
observations. Projections for 1990 to 2005 carried out for the FAR and the SAR suggested global
mean temperature increases of about 0.3°C and 0.15°C per decade, respectively. The difference
between the two was due primarily to the inclusion of aerosol cooling effects in the SAR,
whereas there was no quantitative basis for doing so in the FAR. Projections given in the TAR
were similar to those of the SAR. These results are comparable to observed values of about
0.2°C per decade (Fig 3.9), as providing broad confidence in such short-term projections. Some
of this warming is the committed effect of changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases
prior to the times of those earlier assessments.
37
Fig 3.9: Model projections of global mean warming compared with observed warming.
Observed temperature anomalies, are shown as annual (black dots) and decadal average values
(black line). Projected trends and their ranges from the IPCC First (FAR) and Second (SAR)
Assessment Reports are shown as green and magenta solid lines and shaded areas, and the
projected range from the TAR is shown by vertical blue bars. Multi-model mean projections
from for the SRES B1, A1B and A2 scenarios are shown for the period 2000 to 2025 as blue,
green and red curves with uncertainty ranges indicated against the right-hand axis. The orange
curve shows model projections of warming if greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations were
held constant from the year 2000 – that is, the committed warming.
3.5.2 Precipitation
Since the TAR, there is an improved understanding of projected patterns of precipitation.
Increases in the amount of precipitation are very likely (greater than 90% probability) at high
latitudes while decreases are likely (greater than 66% probability) in most subtropical land
regions (by as much as about 20% in the A1B scenario in 2100). Pole ward of 50°, mean
precipitation is projected to increase due to the increase in water vapor in the atmosphere and the
resulting increase in vapor transport from lower latitudes. Moving equator ward, there is a
transition to mostly decreasing precipitation in the subtropics (20°–40° latitude). Due to
increased water vapor transport out of the subtropics and a pole ward expansion of the
subtropical high-pressure systems, the drying tendency is especially pronounced at the higher-
latitude margins of the subtropics.
38
3.6 Regional Climate Change Projections for Temperature and Precipitation for Asia
and South Asia
These are discussed in the context of IPCC AR4, 2007 for both temperature and precipitation:
3.6.1 Temperature
The temperature projections for the 21st century based on the MMD-A1B (Multi-Model Data)
models represent a strong warming for Asia over the 21st century. Warming greater than the
global mean is projected for South Asia (3.3°C) and East Asia (3.3°C), and much more than the
global mean in the continental interior of Asia (3.7°C in central Asia, 3.8°C in Tibet and 4.3°C in
northern Asia). In four out of the six regions, the largest warming occurs in DJF (winter), but in
central Asia, the maximum occurs in JJA. In Southeast Asia, the warming is nearly the same
throughout the year.
The tendency of the warming over South Asia, under MMD-AIB models is more pronounced in
winter. Downscaled projections using the Hadley Centre Regional Model (HadRM2) indicate
future increases in extreme daily maximum and minimum temperatures throughout South Asia
due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. This projected increase is of the order of
2°C to 4°C in the mid-21st century under the IPCC Scenario IS92a in both minimum and
maximum temperatures (Krishna Kumar et al., 2003). Results from a more recent RCM,
PRECIS, indicate that the night temperatures increase faster than the day temperatures, with the
implication that cold extremes are very likely to be less severe in the future.
3.6.2 Precipitation
According to the AR4, most of the models project a decrease in precipitation in DJF, and an
increase during the rest of the year. The report, however shows a large spread, with only 3 of the
21 models projecting a decrease in annual precipitation. This qualitative agreement on increasing
precipitation for most of the year is also supported by earlier AOGCM simulations. Time-slice
experiments with ECHAM4 indicate a general increase in the intensity of heavy rainfall events in
the future, with large increases over the Arabian Sea and the tropical Indian Ocean, in northern
Pakistan and northwest India, as well as in northeast India, Bangladesh and Myanmar.
39
3.7 Climate Change trends on global and Pakistan basis
3.7.1 Trends on global basis
According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4- 2007), the average global temperature
increased by 0.6 °C for the period 1901-2000 and is projected to increase further by 1.8-4.0 °C
by the end of this century. The last decade of the previous century was the warmest decade in the
millennium and witnessed increased frequency and intensity of weather extremes worldwide.
Globally 11 of the last 12 years during the period 1995-2006, excluding 1996, were the warmest
years in the history of the recorded temperatures during the last 150 years with 1998 being the
warmest in the previous century and 2005 in the current century (Fig. 3.10). The same trend is
almost continuing in the subsequent years.
1850 – 2005 ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 0.045°C

1906 – 2005 ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 0.074°C
1956 – 2005 ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 0.128°C
1981 – 2005 ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 0.177°C
Fig. 3.10: Global mean temperature trends since 1850
The decadal changes in the mean annual temperature using Climate Research Unit (CRU), UK’s
data over Pakistan as worked out at GCISC remained as under:
1901 – 2000 --------------------------- 0.06 °C
1981 – 2000 --------------------------- 0.27 °C
1991 – 2000 --------------------------- 0.76 °C
The rate of increase in temperature is thus higher over Pakistan in the recent decades than the
rate of increase observed globally.
40
3.7.2 Climate Change Trends over Pakistan
The temperature and precipitation changes during the previous century (1901-2000) over
Pakistan using the CRU (Climate Research Unit), UK data has shown an increase of 0.6°C in
temperature and +25% in precipitation (Figs. 3.11 & 3.12). The rise in temperature over Pakistan
tallies closely with the global rise in temperature over the previous century. Past climate changes
for the parameters temperature (mean, max & min) and precipitation using the data of around 54
meteorological stations are also worked out for the period 1951-2000 over different regions of
Pakistan (Fig. 3.13). The mean temperature trends and percentage precipitation trends on annual
and seasonal basis are consolidated in Tables 3.4 & 3.5.
Increase = 0.6 °C Significant at 99%
Fig. 3.11: Annual mean temperature change (°C) for 1901-2000 over Pakistan (Source: GCISC, 2009a)
Fig. 3.11: Annual mean temperature trend (°C) for 1901-2000 over Pakistan Source: GCISC
Increase = 63 mm or 25 % Significant at 99%
Fig. 3.12: Annual precipitation change (%) for 1901-2000 over Pakistan (Source: GCISC, 2009a)
41
Regions
I (a): Greater Himalayas
I (b): Sub-montane and
monsoon dominated
II: Western Highlands
III: Central & Southern
Punjab
IV: Lower Indus Plains
V(a): Balochistan Province
(Sulaiman & Kirthar
Ranges)
V(b): Balochistan Plateau
VI: Coastal Areas
Fig. 3.13: Different climatic zones of Pakistan (Source: GCISC, 2009a)
Table 3.4: Mean temperature change (∆T °C) in different regions on annual and seasonal basis
(1951-2000)
Regions/Seasons Annual Monsoon Winter Apr-May Oct-Nov

(Jun-Sep) (Dec-Mar)
I (a): Greater Himalayas 0.04 -0.80 0.32 1.09 -0.06

I (b): Sub-montane &
-0.19 -0.57 0.00 0.13 0.12
monsoon dominated
II: Western Highlands -0.72 -1.48 -0.65 0.17 -0.47

Punjab
0.11 -0.25 0.03 0.83 0.31
IV: Lower Indus Plains -0.08 -0.55 -0.07 0.35 0.15

V (a) : Balochistan
Province (Sulaiman & 0.11 0.46 0.63 0.79 0.50
Kirthar Ranges)
V (b): Balochistan Plateau
(Western)
1.17 1.3 0.43 2.17 1.80
VI: Coastal Areas 0.00 -0.18 0.05 0.03 0.30
Source: GCISC, 2009a
42
Table 3.5: Percentage precipitation change (∆P %) in different regions of Pakistan on yearly
basis (1951-2000)
Monsoon Winter
Regions/Seasons Annual
(Jun-Sep) (Dec-Mar)
I (a): Greater Himalayas 0.49 1.73 -0.04
I (b): Sub-montane & monsoon dominated 0.3 0.38 0.53
II: Western Highlands -0.02 0.22 0.00
III: Central & Southern Punjab 0.63 0.57 0.99
IV: Lower Indus Plains 0.22 0.45 -0.27
V (a) : Balochistan Province
1.19 1.16 1.14
(Sulaiman & Kirthar Ranges)
V (b): Balochistan Plateau (Western) 0.1 -0.2 -0.4
VI: Coastal Areas -0.82 -1.34 0.00
Source: GCISC, 2009a
3.7.2.1 Temperature Trends

The area averaged mean annual temperature over Pakistan increased by 0.6°C over the period
1901-2000 (in agreement with the global trend). During the period 1901-2000, the increase in
mean annual temperature in the Northern half of Pakistan was seen higher than that for the
country as a whole (0.8°C versus 0.6°C) (PMD, 2009). Summer (April-May) temperatures (both
mean and maximum) increased in all parts of Pakistan during the period 1951-2000. During the
same period, Balochistan Plateau became warmer in all the seasons. Temperatures (both mean
and maximum) during the monsoon season dropped throughout Pakistan during 1951-2000
except in Balochistan Plateau. (The tables for maximum and minimum temperatures are not
shown in this paper). During 1951-2000, Greater Himalayan region (the abode of sizeable
glaciers feeding the Indus River System) had a warming trend on annual basis as well as in all
seasons except the monsoon season and in the post monsoon season (Oct-Nov), where it dropped
slightly.
3.7.2.2 Precipitation Trends

The area averaged mean annual precipitation over Pakistan increased by 25% during the
previous century (1901-2000). Monsoon precipitation increased everywhere except in coastal
regions (where there was a significant drop) and the Western Balochistan Plateau during 1951-
2000. During the same period, winter rains increased by 26-57% in Sub-Montane, Central &
Southern Punjab, and North-Eastern Balochistan and decreased by 13-20% in Sindh and Western
43
Balochistan. The Greater Himalayan region experienced the highest growth in monsoon
precipitation (86%) and a nominal decrease (2%) in winter (December-March) precipitation
during 1951-2000.
3.8 Projected climate changes over Pakistan

Future climate change projections over Pakistan are developed using the coarse resolution (300
km x 300 km) GCMs and fine resolution RCMs at the regional level. The base period for these
projections is taken as 1961-90 whereas the time slices for future projections are for 2020s
(2010–2039), 2050s (2040–2069) and for 2080s (2070–2099). Projected changes in average
temperature over Pakistan for A2 and A1B scenarios for its northern half (above 31o N) and
southern half (above 31o N) based on the ensemble of 13 and 17 GCMs are shown in Figs. 3.14
& 3.15. Precipitation changes for the above scenarios based on the ensemble of 13 and 17
GCMs are shown in Figs. 3.16 & 3.17. Projected temperature and precipitation values for both
summer and winter seasons in Northern and Southern Pakistan are consolidated in Tables 3.6 &
3.7.
Fig. 3.14: Projected changes in average temperature over Pakistan for A2 scenario based on the
ensemble of 13 GCMs (Source: GCISC, 2009a)
44
Fig. 3.15: Projected changes in average temperature over Pakistan for A1B scenario based on the
16
Northern Pakistan
Series1 Southern Pakistan
Series2
12
Precipitation chnage (%)
-4
-8
1990s 2020s 2050s 2080s
Periods
Fig. 3.16: Projected changes in percentage precipitation over Pakistan for A2 scenario based on the
45
Fig. 3.17: Projected changes in average temperature over Pakistan for A1B scenario based on the
Table 3.6: Projected temperature change in 2080s, ∆T (°C) by GCM Ensemble for A2
Scenario
Northern Southern
Pakistan
Pakistan Pakistan
Annual 4.38 ± 0.44 4.67 ± 0.23 4.22 ± 0.18
Summer 4.13 ± 0.26 4.56 ± 0.28 3.90 ± 0.26
Winter 4.47 ± 0.20 4.72 ± 0.24 4.33 ± 0.18
The values indicate that the temperature increases in both summer and winter are higher in
Northern Pakistan than in Southern Pakistan. However, temperature increases in Northern and
Southern parts of Pakistan are higher in winter than in summer.
Table 3.7: Projected precipitation change in 2080s, ∆P (%) by GCM Ensemble for A2
Scenario
Northern Southern
Pakistan
Pakistan Pakistan
Annual 3.48 ± 5.78 1.13 ± 3.95 4.28 ± 9.46
Summer 12.16 ± 8.91 1.08 ± 8.35 51.07 ± 39.78
Winter -5.12 ± 4.78 -2.24 ± 4.10 -20.51 ± 9.05
46
The rather large errors make it difficult to draw any definite conclusions about change in
precipitation with time. There is, however, some indication of precipitation increase in summer
and precipitation decrease in winter in the Southern parts of Pakistan.
3.9 Regional Climate Model (RCM) based Scenarios

GCMs, because of their coarser resolution, cannot effectively be used for impact assessment of
climate change on regional scales. These cannot cover the physical characteristics such as land
use, land sea distribution and topography and can best be covered by RCMs because of their high
resolution usually of the order of 50km x 50km. Regional climate modeling also known as
dynamical downscaling (Giorgi and Mearns, 1991, 1999; McGregor, 1997; Christensen et al,
1998) is used to overcome the limitations posed by GCMs.
The GCMs provide the initial and boundary conditions to drive the regional climate models. The
main RCMs currently being used at Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) and even
over the globe are i) PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies) of Hadley
Centre, Met Office, U.K; ii) RegCm3 of Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical
Physics (ICTP), Italy and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) of NCAR, USA. These
models, before their use, are validated over the whole of South Asia region as well as over
different parts of Pakistan. These are found to reproduce well the observed climatology of
Pakistan including extreme weather events. PRECIS has been used with the GCMs, HadAM3P
of Hadley Centre, UK and ECHAM4 of Max Plank Institute (MPI), Germany and RegCM3 with
ECHAM5 of MPI and FVGCM of NASA, USA. Scenarios developed for different regions of
Pakistan (Fig.3.13) both for temperature and precipitation are consolidated in Tables 3.8 and 3.9
47
Table 3.8: Projected temperature change (∆T°C) over different climatic regions of Pakistan
Summer Winter
Climatic Regions Annual
(JJAS) (DJFM)
(a): Greater Himalayas
4.83 4.95 4.96
(Winter dominated)
I (b): Sub-montane region and
4.77 4.45 5.23
Monsoon dominated
II: Western Highlands 4.67 4.35 5.18
5.42 5.46 5.34
Punjab
IV: Lower Indus Plains 4.61 4.45 4.7
V (a) : Balochistan Plateau
4.78 4.82 4.8
(Suleman & Kirthar Ranges)
4.73 4.76 4.63
(Western)
VI: Coastal Belt 3.91 3.33 4.29
Table 3.9: Projected precipitation change (∆T°C) over different climatic regions of Pakistan
Summer Winter
Climatic Regions Annual
(JJAS) (DJFM)
(a): Greater Himalayas
15.75 6.08 27.2
(Winter dominated)
I (b): Sub-montane region and
7.46 4.19 24.13
Monsoon dominated
II: Western Highlands 8.33 8.06 34.33
-12.06 -13.5 314.17
Punjab
IV: Lower Indus Plains 1.12 -4.95 113.36
V (a) : Balochistan Plateau
4.26 0.80 163.48
(Suleman & Kirthar Ranges)
24.59 29.6 261.51
(Western)
VI: Coastal Belt 12.09 7.52 58.46
3.10 Concluding Remarks

The future picture of climate change scenarios offered by the IPCC Assessment Reports on
global and regional scales (here South Asia region) and the work done by GCISC on past and
projected climate changes over Pakistan is of vital importance in ascertaining the validity of the
48
results to be developed for various forest types. The IPCC reports further help restore our
confidence in the use of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and the downscaling of their outputs
by using Regional Climate Models (RCMs).
‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ x x x x x x x ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
49
Chapter 4
Temperature and Precipitation Regime and Past Climate
Changes over different Forest Types of Pakistan
4.1 Introduction
This chapter, using the past 40-years (1961-2000) climate data of temperature and
precipitation discusses the temperature (T°C) and precipitation (mm) regimes along with the
temperature (ΔT°C) and precipitation trends (ΔP%) over the different forest regions of
Pakistan. For this purpose, the average annual and seasonal values for the mean, maximum
and minimum temperature and for total average precipitation are worked out for all forest
types. The data used for this purpose is the 40 years (1961-2000) observed climate data from
Climate Research Unit (CRU), UK called as CRU data. CRU climate data is a global monthly
gridded dataset which is freely available at their website (www.cru.uea.ac.uk). This global
data can be used for a country and for its sub-regions through masking out the desired data
from the whole data available for the globe. The data for this study has been extracted for
Pakistan as a whole and for its sub-regions encompassing the different forest types of
Pakistan.
4.2 Methodology Used

The Forest Map of Pakistan already gridded compatible to the grids of CRU data each having
a grid size of 0.5 X 0.5 degree (50 km x 50 km) is used for the analysis. Different forest types
are first masked using these grids. If a forest type, for instance, the Alpine Pastures (AP)
covers two grid boxes, the average values of Temperature (Mean, Maximum and Minimum)
in degree centigrade and average value of total precipitation for both the boxes in millimeters
(mm) are computed on annual and seasonal basis. This is done for all forest types depending
upon the grid boxes, they cover. Seasons used are winter (December to February), spring
(March to April), summer (May to June), monsoon (July to September) and autumn (October
to November). Abbreviations such as DJF, MA, MJ, JAS and ON respectively for winter,
spring, summer, monsoon and autumn are also used where required. This constitutes the
temperature regime for each forest type.
50
The time series data for each forest type for the period 1961-2000 is then developed and past
trend changes are worked out over each region using the simple linear regression. Student’s t-
test is used to check the significance of these results for each forest type. In the case of
precipitation, monthly total precipitation is averaged for the grids; a forest type covers and
trend changes are worked out using again the linear regression technique. The analysis is
carried out on annual and on seasonal basis for both. Student’s t-test is used in this case too to
check the significance of these results.
The method of calculating precipitation trend changes for forest types located in arid and
hyper-arid regions, in particular for the autumn season, for some forest regions, such as
Riverine Forest (RF-2) and Mangrove Forest (MF), where the autumn rains are, in fact, very
low and highly scanty as most of the years do not get any rains, the percentage trend changes
worked out using the simple regression technique are at times unappealingly high. The
method is changed to the working out of the precipitation variations on decadal basis (e.g. for
1961-1970 and 1971-1980 etc.).
4.3 Temperature Regime and Past Climate Changes

The forest types over Pakistan are now discussed in the context of their temperature regime
and temperature trends over the period 1961 to 2000. Each forest type is further divided into
different parts and dealt with separately on the basis of its latitudinal location. Fig. 4.1 (a, b &
c) and Fig. 4.2 to Fig. 4.4 respectively show the temperature regime and temperature trend
changes in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures for all the forests during different
seasons.
4.3.1 Alpine Pastures (AP)

Table 4.1 and 4.2 consolidate respectively the Temperature (Mean, Maximum and Minimum)
values on annual and seasonal basis and the trend changes for this forest type:
51
Table 4.1: Temperature regime (T °C) over Alpine Pasture forest (1961–2000)
Annual/Season Mean (T°C) Max (T°C) Min (T°C)

Annual -1.38 4.32 -7.09
Winter -12.44 -7.75 -17.17
Spring -4.15 0.86 -9.17
Summer 4.34 10.38 -1.69
Monsoon 8.79 15.53 2.07
Autumn -2.89 3.09 -8.87
Monsoon season is the warmest in both maximum and minimum temperatures. Summer is the
next warmest season. Winter temperatures are some 19-23 °C lower than monsoon. The forest
specie, as such, can survive with temperatures as low as -17 °C in winter and as high as 16 °C
in the monsoon season. Monsoon rains rarely penetrate into this region and the season is
warmer than summer season.
Table 4.2: Temperature change (ΔT°C) over Alpine Pasture forest (1961–2000)
Annual/Season Mean (ΔT°C) Max (ΔT°C) Min (ΔT°C)

Annual 0.78** 0.45 1.10**
Winter 2.32** 2.03** 2.61**
Spring 0.19 -0.26 0.64
Summer 0.07 -0.46 0.56
Monsoon 0.26 0.08 0.42
Autumn 0.88** 0.49 1.27**
(*) Significant at 90% Confidence level, (**) Significant at 95% Confidence level
Over Alpine Pastures, changes in minimum temperature are higher than the changes in
maximum temperatures for all seasons. Nights are thus seen to have become warmer than the
days. Temperatures during the winter season are higher by around 1-2 °C than changes in
other seasons. Autumn is the next warmest season after winter. Changes during autumn and
winter are found significant. Warming of autumn and in sequence the winter season is
indicative of the spring season to start early.
4.3.2 Coniferous Forests

These forests have different biomes: i) Sub-Alpine, ii) Dry Temperate, iii) Moist Temperate,
iv) Sub-tropical Pine, depending upon their locations on latitudinal basis. Types i) and ii) are
in Greater Himalayan region (the winter rain dominated region) above 35.25°N and the later
two: ii) and iii), in the sub-montane region (the monsoon rain dominated region) between
52
33.75°N to 35.25°N. Because of their different locations, these have been separately dealt
with, for working out their temperature regimes and past climate changes.
4.3.2.1 Sub-Alpine (SA)
Table 4.3 and 4.4 consolidate respectively the temperature regime (Mean, Maximum and
Minimum) values on annual and seasonal basis and the trend changes for the region during
the period 1961-2000:
Table 4.3: Temperature regime (T°C) over Sub-Alpine forest (1961–2000)

Annual 2.33 7.70 -3.04
Winter -8.23 -3.91 -12.58
Spring -0.77 3.90 -5.44
Summer 8.03 13.82 2.26
Monsoon 12.02 18.38 5.69
Autumn 1.14 6.88 -4.59
Monsoon season and then next the summer season are the warmest with monsoon warmer
than summer. Winter records the lowest temperatures and both maximum and minimum are
below freezing level.
Table 4.4: Temperature change (ΔT°C) over the Sub-Alpine forest (1961–2000)

Annual 0.74** 0.45 1.04**
Winter 1.65** 1.38** 1.93**
Spring 0.32 0.02 0.62
Summer 0.24 -0.18 0.66
Monsoon 0.61* 0.42 0.82**
Autumn 0.84** 0.45 1.25**
Being located in Greater Himalayan region, the trends are similar to those seen in the case of
Alpine Pasture forest. Minimum temperature trend changes exceed the maximum temperature
trend changes. Temperature changes during winter are highest when compared to other
seasons and are significant at 95% confidence level. Next highest changes are seen in the
autumn season and are significant at 95% confidence level for both mean and minimum
53
temperatures. Significant warming during autumn and then in winter clearly indicates the
early start of spring.
4.3.2.2 Dry Temperate (DT)
This forest type is dealt with separately in two parts as DT-1 and DT-2 because of their
different locations. DT-1 is located in Greater Himalayan region and DT-2 at Ziarat and
around in Balochistan province. Tables 4.5 and 4.6 consolidate respectively the temperature
regime (Mean, Maximum and Minimum) and the trend changes on annual and seasonal basis
for both DT-1 and DT-2 during the period 1961-2000:
Table 4.5: Temperature regime (T°C) over Dry-Temperate forest (1961–2000)
DT-1 DT-2
Annual/Season Mean Max Min Mean Max Min
(T°C) (T°C) (T°C) (T°C) (T°C) (T°C)
Annual 2.15 7.78 -3.47 13.51 21.28 5.76
Winter -8.36 -3.78 -12.96 3.30 10.17 -3.57
Spring -0.52 4.55 -5.59 11.29 18.38 4.23
Summer 7.74 13.77 1.74 20.68 29.02 12.37
Monsoon 11.74 18.18 5.32 22.54 30.50 14.61
Autumn 0.73 6.86 -5.39 10.41 19.40 1.42
Maximum temperatures are highest during monsoon with next highest during summer.
Autumn, in sequence, is the third warmest season. Winter shows the lowest temperatures
falling below freezing level in case of DT-1 but positive in case of DT-2.
Table 4.6: Temperature change (ΔT°C) over Dry-Temperate forest (961–2000)
DT-1 DT-2
(ΔT°C) (ΔT°C) (ΔT°C) (ΔT°C) (ΔT°C) (ΔT°C)
Annual 0.71** 0.44 0.99** 0.77** 0.67** 0.88**
Winter 2.13** 1.85** 2.41** 0.97* 0.84 1.09**
Spring 0.19 -0.16 0.55 -0.23 -0.18 -0.26
Summer 0.15 -0.34 0.63 0.81 0.74 0.86
Monsoon 0.25 0.09 0.40 0.74** 0.65* 0.84**
Autumn 0.73* 0.48 1.00** 1.81** 1.64** 1.98**
54
Minimum temperature trend changes exceed the maximum temperature trend changes for
both DT-1 & DT-2. Winter temperature changes are highest compared to other seasons. Next
highest changes are seen in the autumn season. Minimum temperature changes are significant
for winter and autumn at 95% confidence level where as maximum temperature is significant
at the same level for winter only. Significant warming during autumn and then in sequence
during winter clearly indicate the early start of spring season.
4.3.2.3 Moist Temperate (MT) and Sub-Tropical Pine (STP)

Tables 4.7 and 4.8 show respectively the temperature regime and trends for both the forest
types.
Table 4.7: Temperature regime (T°C) over Moist-Temperate and Sub-tropical pine forests
(1961–2000)
Moist Temperate (MT) Sub-tropical pine (STP)

(T°C) (T°C) (T°C) (T°C) (T°C) (T°C)
Annual 6.61 11.66 1.59 14.39 19.85 8.96
Winter -2.63 1.58 -6.87 5.48 10.48 0.51
Spring 3.85 8.44 -0.72 12.05 17.24 6.90
Summer 12.25 17.80 6.73 21.02 27.05 15.04
Monsoon 14.60 20.01 9.21 21.22 26.30 16.19
Autumn 5.75 11.44 0.08 13.29 19.75 6.86
Temperatures are highest in both the forest types in monsoon season followed in sequence by
summer, autumn and spring seasons. Lowest temperatures are seen during the winter season.
The temperatures over STP are higher by around 7 to 10°C than MT.
Table 4.8: Temperature change (ΔT°C) over Moist-Temperate and Sub-tropical pine forests
(1961–2000)
Moist Temperate (MT) Sub-tropical pine (STP)

Annual 0.67** 0.43 0.92** 0.56* 0.35 0.78**
Winter 1.68** 1.43** 1.92** 1.37** 1.17** 1.56**
Spring 0.35 0.11 0.59 0.27 0.09 0.47
Summer 0.31 -0.07 0.69 0.40 0.06 0.76
Monsoon 0.34 0.18 0.52 0.21 0.07 0.36
Autumn 0.71* 0.44 1.00** 0.63* 0.39 0.86*
55
Minimum temperature trends in winter are higher than the maximum temperature trends and
are significant at the levels shown for both the forest types. Trend changes are highest and
significant in winter as shown for all mean, maximum and minimum temperatures. Autumn
comes next and significant at the levels shown. Spring season has thus every likelihood to
start early over these forest types.
4.3.3 Scrub Forests

These have two main biomes: (i) Dry sub-tropical broad leaved (DSTBL), and (ii) Dry
Tropical Thorn (DTT). Biome (i) is studied in two parts as DSTBL-1 and DSTBL-2 on
account of their different latitudinal locations, whereas DTT is studied in five parts DTT-1 to
DTT-5 depending upon their latitudinally based locations.
4.3.3.1 Dry Sub-Tropical Broad-Leaved (DSTBL)

These are discussed in two parts, DSTBL-1 and DSTBL-2, the first located one to two degree
higher in latitude than the second. Temperature regimes and temperature trend changes for
both the forest types are shown in Tables 4.9 and 4.10.
Table 4.9: Temperature regime (T°C) over the DSTBL-I & II forests (1961–2000)
DSTBL-1 DSTBL-2
(T°C) (T°C) (T°C) (T°C) (T°C) (T°C)
Annual 21.73 28.49 15.0 22.06 28.94 15.22
Winter 11.69 18.82 4.58 12.25 19.44 5.08
Spring 19.45 26.05 12.90 20.62 27.60 13.69
Summer 29.69 36.95 22.45 30.03 37.43 22.66
Monsoon 29.26 34.71 23.82 28.70 33.94 23.48
Autumn 19.90 27.72 12.13 20.38 28.59 12.21
Both the forest types show similar temperature patterns slightly higher in case of DSTBL-2
located one or two degree lower in latitude towards south. Highest temperatures are generally
recorded during summer season but quite close to that of the monsoon season. Minimum
temperatures, however, are slightly higher in Monsoon than during summer for both DSTBL-
1 and 2.
56
Table 4.10: Temperature change (ΔT°C) over the DSTBL-1 & 2 forests (1961–2000)
DSTBL-1 DSTBL-2
Annual 0.68** 0.49* 0.86** 0.75** 0.59** 0.91**
Winter 0.83** 0.67 0.96** 1.08** 0.93** 1.22**
Spring 0.65 0.56 0.77 0.55 0.40 0.67
Summer 1.17** 0.93 1.39** 0.96 0.70 1.24**
Monsoon 0.13 -0.03 0.29 0.17 0.05 0.28
Autumn 0.92** 0.65 1.16** 1.18** 1.05** 1.32**
Both the forest types show minimum temperature changes as higher than the changes in
maximum temperature in all seasons. In case of DSTBL-1, both maximum and minimum
temperature changes in summer are higher than the corresponding change in winter and then
in autumn and significant at the levels shown. In case of DSTBL-2, autumn shows the highest
increase in all mean, maximum and minimum temperatures and are significant at 95%
confidence level for annual, winter and autumn seasons for all mean, maximum and minimum
temperatures. Summer is significant at 95% confidence level only for minimum temperature.
4.3.4 Dry Tropical Thorn (DTT)

The Dry Tropical Thorn forests constitute the scrub forests and are found in Southern Punjab,
upper and lower Balochistan and in the Sindh province. These are marked as DTT-1 to DTT-5
depending upon their locations in the decreasing order of their latitudes. All are separately
discussed because of their distinct locations from one another.
4.3.4.1 DTT-1
These forests have their inhabitation in the northern parts of Balochistan Province. Tables
4.11 and 4.12 show respectively the temperature regime and the temperature trend changes
over this forest type.
57
Table 4.11: Temperature regime (T°C) over DTT-1 (1961–2000)

Annual 18.66 25.46 11.90
Winter 7.67 14.46 0.91
Spring 16.60 23.13 10.11
Summer 26.68 33.67 19.71
Monsoon 27.12 33.40 20.87
Autumn 16.61 24.29 8.96
Temperatures during monsoon and summer are the highest and quite close to each other.
Autumn and spring come next where temperatures on mean, maximum and minimum basis
are almost similar. Winter temperatures, as usual, are the lowest.
Table 4.12: Temperature change (ΔT°C) over DTT-1 (1961–2000)

Annual 0.06 -0.01 0.14
Winter 0.82* 0.79 0.88*
Spring -0.54 -0.52 -0.57
Summer 0.05 -0.01 0.07
Monsoon -0.45 -0.54* -0.35
Autumn 0.66 0.51 0.82
Winter and then next the trend changes in autumn dominate the other seasons for mean and
both maximum and minimum temperatures. A noticeable decreasing trend is seen for the
spring and monsoon seasons. Winter changes are significant at 90% confidence level for
mean and minimum temperature. Trend changes in minimum temperature are generally
higher than maximum temperature except for spring season, where it is slightly lower in
minimum temperature.
4.3.4.2 DTT-2
These forests are located in the southern parts of Punjab province close to the eastern border.
Tables 4.13 and 4.14 show respectively the temperature regime and temperature trend
changes for this forest type.
58
Mean (T°C) Max (T°C) Min (T°C)

Annual/Season
Annual 25.48 32.77 18.22
Winter 14.82 22.80 6.86
Spring 24.69 32.53 16.88
Summer 34.09 41.57 26.65
Monsoon 32.31 37.68 26.97
Autumn 23.45 31.84 15.10
This forest type located in an arid region has highest temperatures during summer and then in
the monsoon season. Spring and autumn have comparable temperatures with slightly higher
temperatures during the spring season.
Table 4.14: Temperature change (ΔT°C) over DTT-2 during the period 1961-2000

Annual 0.32 0.26 0.37
Winter 0.66* 0.61* 0.71*
Spring 0.21 0.18 0.22
Summer 0.88 0.77 0.97*
Monsoon -0.36 -0.43 -0.31
Autumn 0.43 0.42 0.44
Summer and winter seasons, both, have the highest changes with summer somewhat higher
than winter. However change is significant at 90% confidence interval in winter for all mean,
maximum and minimum temperatures and significant at the same level for summer for only
minimum temperature. Autumn shows in sequence the next highest temperature trends, but
insignificant. Monsoon season shows the cooling trends.
4.3.4.3 DTT-3
This forest type is located close to Sibbi in Balochistan which has its aridity close to arid and
hyper arid regions. Tables 4.15 and 4.16 show respectively the temperature regime and
temperature trend changes for this forest type.
59

Annual 21.76 29.26 14.27
Winter 10.98 18.09 3.89
Spring 20.42 27.72 13.14
Summer 30.03 38.11 21.98
Monsoon 29.68 36.67 22.72
Autumn 19.14 27.67 10.63
Temperatures are generally higher in summer than in monsoon season but quite comparable.
Autumn and spring temperatures are also comparable but slightly higher in spring than in
autumn.

Annual 0.17 0.11 0.22
Winter 0.34 0.31 0.36
Spring -0.44 -0.40 -0.51
Summer 0.50 0.46 0.52
Monsoon -0.05 -0.10 0.02
Autumn 0.81* 0.68 0.92*
The highest temperature change over this forest type can be seen for autumn for all mean,
maximum and minimum temperatures. Autumn is significant for mean and minimum
temperature at 90% confidence level. Summer is next warmest season but with insignificant
changes. Spring temperatures have dropped below freezing level whereas monsoon season
has also cooled down except for minimum temperature, where it is slightly positive.
Minimum temperature trends are slightly higher than maximum ones except in spring.
4.3.4.4 DTT-4
This forest type is spread over a large area around 15000 sq. km and is located in the desert
part of Balochistan close to the Iran border which, in fact, is the extension of Iran deserts.
Tables 4.17 and 4.18 show respectively the temperature regime and temperature trend
changes for this forest type.
60

Annual 21.97 29.84 14.44
Winter 11.45 18.96 3.96
Spring 20.49 28.01 13.01
Summer 30.08 38.00 22.18
Monsoon 30.05 37.77 22.36
Autumn 19.11 28.00 10.25
This forest type is completely outside the domain of monsoon rains and as such the monsoon
and summer temperatures are the highest but quite close to each other. The same can be seen
for both spring and autumn seasons which too have temperatures quite close to each other.
Summer temperatures are higher by around 19°C than winter temperatures.
Table 4.18: Temperature change (ΔT°C) over DTT-4 (1961–2000)

Annual 2.25** 2.06** 2.43**
Winter 2.42** 2.16** 2.68**
Spring 1.11 1.03 1.19*
Summer 2.32** 2.20** 2.43**
Monsoon 2.13** 2.00** 2.27**
Autumn 3.00** 2.76** 3.26**
Highest temperature trends are seen in autumn and then in sequence during winter, summer
and monsoon. All are significant at 95% confidence level.
4.3.4.5 DTT-5
These scrub forests are located in the eastern central parts of Sindh province some 100 km in
the north of the coast of the Arabian Sea. Tables 4.19 and 4.20 show respectively the
temperature regime and temperature trend changes over this forest type.

Annual 26.13 34.30 17.99
Winter 17.31 27.07 7.56
Spring 26.83 36.32 17.39
Summer 33.31 40.86 25.80
Monsoon 30.48 35.78 25.24
Autumn 24.97 34.39 15.59
61
Summer is the warmest season of all but comparable with the temperatures during monsoon
season. Spring and autumn are the next warmest months with spring slightly higher than
autumn.

Annual 0.89** 0.87** 0.92**
Winter 1.03** 1.05** 1.00**
Spring 0.62 0.61 0.64
Summer 1.09** 1.06** 1.12**
Monsoon 0.59* 0.58* 0.64*
Autumn 1.17** 1.11** 1.27**
The highest values of ΔT are seen during the autumn and then in sequence during summer,
winter, spring and monsoon seasons. These are all significant mostly at 95% confidence level
except during spring. The changes during winter and summer are quite comparable.
4.3.5 Irrigated Plantations (IP)

This forest type is located close to Lahore at a place called Chhanga Manga. Temperature
regime and temperature trend changes over this forest type are shown in Tables 4.21 and 4.22.
Table 4.21: Temperature regime (T°C) over Irrigated Plantation (1961–2000)

Annual 23.26 29.90 16.66
Winter 13.28 20.25 6.33
Spring 22.39 29.51 15.30
Summer 31.34 38.60 24.10
Monsoon 29.73 34.53 24.95
Autumn 21.38 29.14 13.67
Summer and monsoon are the warmest seasons with summer somewhat warmer than
monsoon season. Spring and autumn show comparable temperatures but spring is slightly
warmer than autumn.
62
Table 4.22: Temperature change (ΔT°C) over Irrigated Plantation (1961–2000)
:
Annual 0.25 0.15 0.37**
Winter 0.98** 0.83** 1.13*
Spring 0.03 -0.07 0.14
Summer 0.28 -0.15 0.36
Monsoon -0.23 -0.31 -0.15
Autumn 0.36 0.39 0.35
Winter shows the highest warming trend changes in all mean, maximum and minimum
temperatures and is significant at 95% confidence level. Autumn stands next to winter but
changes are insignificant. Monsoon shows the negative trends.
4.3.6 Riverine Forests (RF)

Because of their fairly long latitudinal extension along the Indus River down in the Sindh
province, these forests are separately discussed as RF-1 and RF-2. Tables 4.23 and 4.24 show
respectively the temperature regime and temperature trend changes over these forest types.
4.3.6.1 RF-1 and RF-2
Table 4.23: Temperature regime (T°C) over RF-1 and RF-2 (1961–2000)
RF-1 RF-2
(T°C) (T°C) (T°C) (T°C) (T°C) (T°C)
Annual 26.28 33.86 18.73 26.77 34.65 18.93
Winter 15.81 23.72 7.93 17.15 25.63 8.71
Spring 25.91 34.00 17.85 26.99 35.78 18.23
Summer 34.85 42.79 26.95 34.50 42.41 26.62
Monsoon 32.72 38.84 26.63 32.16 38.24 26.11
Autumn 24.14 32.56 15.76 25.23 33.97 16.51
Temperature regimes are almost similar for both the forest types. Temperatures are highest
during summer compared with next highest during summer. Spring and autumn are quite
comparable with spring slightly higher in both the cases.
63
Table 4.24: Temperature change (ΔT°C) over RF-1 & RF-2 (1961–2000)
RF-1 RF-2
Annual 0.24 0.21 0.27 0.43** 0.38** 0.47**
Winter 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.79** 0.77** 0.80**
Spring -0.16 -0.13 -0.19 0.28 0.26 0.29
Summer 0.75* 0.71 0.79* 0.52* 0.47 0.56**
Monsoon -0.21 -0.24 -0.15 -0.08 -0.13 -0.01
Autumn 0.45 0.36 0.53 0.74* 0.63* 0.84*
Temperature trends for RF-1 are higher during summer compared to winter and then in
sequence in autumn. Trends for summer are significant at the levels shown for mean and
minimum temperature. The highest warming for RF-2 is seen for winter and then in sequence
for autumn and summer seasons and are significant as indicated, Monsoon shows decreasing
but insignificant trend changes for both RF-1 & RF-2.
4.3.7 Mangroves Forests (MF)

These are coastal area forests located down in the Indus delta region. Temperature regime and
temperature trend changes are shown in Tables 4.25 and 4.26.
Table 4.25: Temperature regime (T°C) over Mangroves Forest (1961–2000)

Annual 26.63 32.91 20.38
Winter 19.29 27.08 11.53
Spring 27.42 34.81 20.05
Summer 32.18 37.67 26.72
Monsoon 29.93 33.85 26.04
Autumn 26.40 33.64 19.19
Summer is the warmest season. Next, in sequence, are monsoon, spring, autumn and winter
seasons. Spring and autumn have quite comparable temperatures with spring slightly higher
than autumn.
64
Table 4.26: Temperature change (ΔT°C) over Mangrove Forest (1961–2000)
Annual/Season Mean (ΔT°C) Max (ΔT °C) Min (ΔT °C)

Annual 0.37* 0.34 0.40
Winter 0.78** 0.80** 0.76**
Spring 0.35 0.33 0.36
Summer 0.40* 0.39 0.42*
Monsoon -0.12 -0.19 -0.04
Autumn 0.58 0.51 0.65
Winter shows the highest warming trend significant at 95% confidence level. Summer comes
next and is significant for both mean and minimum temperature at 90% confidence level.
Trends are negative but insignificant during the monsoon season.
65
45.0
40.0
35.0 (a)
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
‐5.0
‐10.0
‐15.0
‐20.0
DS P
T
IP
DS 1
2
1
F
SA
AP
2
M
M
ST
L‐
L‐
T‐
T‐
T‐
T‐
T‐
‐
‐
DT
DT
RF
RF
TB
TB
DT
DT
DT
DT
DT
45.0
40.0
35.0
(b)
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
‐5.0
‐10.0
‐15.0
‐20.0
DS 1
2
DS P
5
‐1
‐2
‐1
‐2
F
SA
IP
AP
L‐
L‐
M
M
T‐
T‐
T‐
T‐
T‐
ST
DT
DT
RF
RF
TB
TB
DT
DT
DT
DT
DT
45.0
40.0
35.0 (c)
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
‐5.0
‐10.0
‐15.0
‐20.0
DS 1
5
DS P
‐1
‐2
‐1
‐2
F
SA
IP
AP
L‐
L‐
M
M
T‐
T‐
T‐
T‐
T‐
ST
DT
DT
RF
RF
TB
TB
DT
DT
DT
DT
DT
Fig 4.1: Temperature Regimes (T°C) for (a) Mean (b) Maximum and (c) Minimum Temperatures
corresponding to various seasons during 1961-2000 for different forest types
66
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
‐0.50
‐1.00
5
1
2
‐1
‐2
‐1
‐2
T
F
SA
IP
AP
T‐
T‐
T‐
T‐
T‐
L‐
L‐
M
M
ST
DT
DT
RF
RF
DT
DT
DT
DT
DT
TB
TB
DS
DS
Fig 4.2: Mean temperature changes (ΔT°C) corresponding to various seasons during 1961-2000
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
‐0.50
‐1.00
‐1
‐2
‐1
‐2
‐3
‐4
‐5
P
1
‐1
‐2
T
SA
F
P
IP
M
M
ST
T‐
T‐
BL
BL
TT
TT
TT
TT
TT
A
RF
RF
D
ST
ST
D
D
Fig 4.3: Maximum temperature changes (ΔT°C) corresponding to various seasons during 1961-2000
67
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
‐0.50
‐1.00
1
5
1
2
‐1
‐2
‐1
‐2
T
F
P
SA
IP
AP
T‐
T‐
T‐
T‐
T‐
L‐
L‐
M
M
ST
DT
DT
RF
RF
DT
DT
DT
DT
DT
TB
TB
DS
DS
Fig 4.4: Minimum temperature changes (ΔT°C) corresponding to various seasons during 1961-2000
4.4 Consolidation and discussion of results of Past Temperature Changes

The temperature trend changes for all forest types in terms of temperature ranges shown
below for different categories of warming are consolidated in Table 4.27:
>3°C Extremely High

2 – 3 °C Very High
1.5 – 2.0°C High
1.0 -1.5°C Moderate
0.5 – 1.0°C Low
< 0.5 Very Low
68
Table 4.27: Past temperature change over different forest types of Pakistan in different
seasons during 1961-2000
Past Forest Type Season Mean Max Min

temperature
trend limits (T°C) (T°C) (T°C)
>3°C DTT-4 Autumn Mean - Min
AP Winter Mean Max Min
DT-1 Winter Mean - Min
2 – 3 °C Annual, Winter, Monsoon &
DTT-4 Mean Max Min
Summer
DTT-4 Autumn - Max -
SA Winter Mean Max Min
DT-1 Winter - Max -
1.5 – 2.0°C DT-2 Autumn Mean Max Min
MT Winter Mean - Min
STP Winter - - Min
AP Annual - - Min
SA Annual, Autumn - - Min
DT-1 Autumn - - Min
DT-2 Winter - - Min
MT Winter - Max -
STP Winter Mean Max -
DSTBL-1 Summer Mean - Min
1.0 -1.5°C DSTBL-1 Winter Mean - Min
DSTBL-1 Autumn - - Min
DSTBL-2 Winter Mean - Min
DSTBL-2 Autumn Mean Max Min
DSTBL-2 Summer - - Min
DTT-4 Spring Mean Max Min
DTT-5 Autumn, Winter, Summer Mean Max Min
IP Winter - - Min
0.5 – 1.0°C AP Annual Mean - -
AP Spring - - Min
AP Autumn Mean - -
SA Annual Mean - -
SA Spring - - Min
SA Monsoon Mean - Min
SA Autumn Mean - -
SA Summer - - Min
69
DT-1 Autumn Mean - Min
DT-2 Monsoon, Summer Mean Max Min
DT-2 Winter Mean Max -
MT Autumn Mean - Min
MT Spring, Summer, Monsoon - - Min
STP Summer - - Min
STP Autumn Mean - Min
DSTBL-1 Annual Mean Max Min
DSTBL-1 Autumn Mean Max -
DSTBL-1 Winter Mean Max Min
DSTBL-1 Spring Mean Max Min
DSTBL-2 Annual Mean Max Min
DSTBL-2 Winter - - -
DSTBL-2 Spring - Max Min
DSTBL-2 Summer Mean Max -
DTT-1 Autumn Mean Max Min
DTT-1 Spring Mean Max Min
DTT-2 Winter Mean Max Min
DTT-2 Summer Mean Max Min
DTT-3 Autumn Mean - Min
DTT-3 Summer Mean Max Min
DDT-5 Annual, Spring, Monsoon Mean Max Min
IP Winter Mean Max -
RF-1 Winter, summer Mean - Min
RF-1 Autumn - Max Min
RF-2 Autumn, Winter Mean - Min
RF-2 Summer Mean - Min
MF Autumn, Winter Mean Max Min

The past temperature trends over Alpine Pasture are categorized as very high in winter in all
mean, maximum and minimum temperatures. The autumn of this forest type shows low
warming in its mean temperature. A moderate warming is seen on annual basis in the
minimum temperature. A low warming is also seen on annual basis in its mean and minimum
temperatures. The consolidated picture reveals that the warming of autumn and, in sequence,
the warming during winter has resulted in the spring season to start early.
70

The forest type shows low warming in its mean annual temperature followed by moderate
increase in autumn in its minimum temperature. High warming is seen in winter in all the
mean, maximum and minimum temperatures. Low warming is also seen to have occurred
during spring, summer and monsoon in their minimum temperatures. This picture,
consolidated together, reflects an early start of the spring season and early maturity of the
forest food products.
4.4.2.2 Dry-Temperate (DT)

This forest type is treated as DT-1 and DT-2 because of its two different locations on
latitudinal basis:
4.4.2.2.1 DT-1
This forest type records very high warming trends in winter in its mean and minimum
temperatures and a moderate warming in maximum temperature. Moderate warming is also
seen in autumn in its minimum temperature. Warming during autumn and thereafter in winter
again reflects the early start of spring season.
4.4.2.2.2 DT-2
Autumn shows high warming in all mean, maximum and minimum temperatures. Winter has
moderately warmed in minimum temperature but has simultaneously warmed as low in mean
and maximum temperature. Monsoon and summer also show low warming in all mean,
maximum and minimum temperatures. Early start of spring is seen in this case too.
4.4.2.3 Moist Temperate (MT)

High warming is seen in winter in mean and minimum whereas moderate warming has
occurred in this season in maximum temperature. Low warming is seen in spring, summer,
monsoon and autumn in minimum temperature only. All reflect early start of spring season
and changes in other parameters of the forest type such as its shifting to higher altitudes and
early maturity of its food products.
71
4.4.2.4 Sub-Tropical Pine (STP)
Winter season is seen to have moderately warmed in its mean and maximum temperature and
low warming in autumn in its mean and minimum temperature. Summer also records low
warming in minimum temperature.
4.4.3 Scrub Forests

The two main forest types namely Dry-Sub-tropical Broad Leaved (DSTBL) and Dry
Tropical Thorn (DTT) under this forest type are discussed separately. Separate analysis is also
carried out on the basis of their latitudinal locations.
4.4.3.1 Dry Sub-Tropical Broad Leaved (DSTBL)

The forest type is discussed in two parts: DSTBL-1 and DSTBL-2 depending upon their
locations.
4.4.3.1.1 DSTBL-1
The autumn and summer seasons over this forest type are seen moderately warmed up in their
minimum temperatures, whereas on annual, autumn, winter and summer basis, low warming
is seen in all mean, maximum and minimum temperatures.
4.4.3.1.2 DSTBL-2
Autumn in all mean, maximum and minimum and winter in mean and minimum temperature
have moderately warmed up, whereas, the remaining, annual (mean, maximum and
minimum), winter (max), spring (min) and summer(mean and max) have shown low warming
in the parameters mentioned in brackets.
4.4.3.2 Dry Tropical Thorn (DTT)

This forest type is further divided into five parts, DTT-1 to DTT-5 depending upon their
latitudinal locations:
4.4.3.2.1 DTT-1
Autumn and spring have shown low warming in all mean, maximum and minimum
temperatures.
72
4.4.3.2.2 DTT-2
Winter and summer seasons have shown low warming in all mean, maximum and minimum
temperatures.
4.4.3.2.3 DTT-3
DTT-3 records low warming in autumn in both maximum and minimum temperatures but a
very low warming is seen in other seasons.
4.4.3.2.4 DTT-4
DTT-4 shows extremely high warming in the autumn season in its mean and minimum
temperatures, whereas it has shown very high warming on annual, winter, summer and
monsoon basis in all mean, maximum and minimum temperature. Autumn, extremely high in
mean and minimum temperatures shows very high warming in maximum temperature. Spring
has shown moderate warming in all mean, maximum and minimum temperatures.
4.4.3.2.5 DTT-5
Autumn, winter and summer of this forest type have warmed up moderately whereas annual,
spring and monsoon seasons show low warming. Spring season, consequently reflects its
early start.

Moderate warming is seen in winter season in minimum temperature and low warming again
in winter in mean and maximum temperature. Changes are categorized as very low in other
seasons.
4.4.5 Riverine Forests

This forest type, elongated latitudinally along the Indus River, is discussed separately in two
parts, RF-1 and RF-2:
4.4.5.1 RF-1
Winter and summer have shown low warming in both minimum and maximum temperatures,
whereas autumn shows low warming again in winter and summer in maximum temperatures.
73
4.4.5.2 RF-2
RF-2 also shows low warming in autumn and winter in all the three parameters mean,
maximum and minimum temperatures. Summer also has shown low warming in mean and
minimum temperatures.

A low warming is seen in autumn and winter in all the three variables mean, maximum and
minimum.
4.5 Consolidation of Precipitation Regime and Past Precipitation Changes
Tables 4.28 and 4.29 show respectively the precipitation regime and past precipitation trends
over different forest types on annual and seasonal basis for the period 1961-2000. Figs. 4.5
and Fig. 4.6 show their respective graphical presentations.
Table 4.28: Mean precipitation (mm) regime over different forest types for different
seasons (1961–2000)
Forest Types Annual Winter Spring Summer Monsoon Autumn

AP 266.75 81.09 83.95 49.29 22.43 29.11
SA 469.38 130.39 138.29 74.24 80.14 44.68
DT-1 362.60 96.55 103.02 60.20 75.36 27.09
DT-2 268.20 102.30 85.98 22.33 42.65 14.25
MT 747.35 157.69 182.75 112.59 244.90 47.56
STP 1071.56 208.03 212.32 142.71 445.73 59.97
DSTBL-1 649.51 125.98 145.51 64.22 273.34 36.89
DSTBL-2 900.68 141.26 129.32 97.83 490.80 38.34
DTT-1 337.35 66.65 90.71 37.22 128.90 13.41
DTT-2 247.34 25.03 25.05 31.15 159.74 5.63
DTT-3 196.19 50.15 48.14 16.00 77.01 4.37
DTT-4 112.01 49.12 26.78 5.38 26.03 4.37
DTT-5 199.72 4.87 6.64 21.28 158.71 7.91
IP 725.97 75.41 60.40 82.39 487.88 17.38
RF-1 128.80 14.27 12.73 14.23 84.97 2.37
RF-2 137.85 9.81 7.25 9.01 106.11 5.38
MF 206.81 8.99 6.66 11.51 166.72 12.31
74
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
IP
MT
MF
RF
SA
‐1
‐2
‐1
‐2
AP
DT 1
DT 2
DT 3
DT 4
5
P
DS L ‐1
DT ‐2
T‐
T‐
T‐
T‐
T‐
ST
DT
DT
RF
RF
L
TB
TB
DS
Fig 4.5: Precipitation distribution (mm) corresponding to various seasons during 1961-2000 over
different Forest types of Pakistan
Table 4.29: Mean precipitation change (%) over different forest types for different
seasons during the period 1961-2000
Forest Types Annual Winter Spring Summer Monsoon Autumn

AP -9.59 -10.16 -6.57 -30.02 -3.60 -8.05
SA -5.82 -20.40 -13.42 -9.00 19.00 -4.31
DT-1 11.18 12.23 2.43 -0.34 16.70 1.53
DT-2 -0.32 -9.43 -14.22 14.52 7.88 25.13
MT 16.72 -26.07 11.07 71.49 37.29 -12.12
STP 12.28 -6.28 0.25 37.10 22.17 -12.75
DSTBL-1 15.76 -2.09 -3.03 -5.90 36.83 54.31
DSTBL-2 12.62 -1.49 -0.65 7.28 21.18 9.74
DTT-1 -2.97 -26.43 11.36 21.31 -11.22 21.38
DTT-2 9.35 23.16 -3.32 69.22 -0.56 33.63
DTT-3 19.40 2.38 -0.84 37.22 29.14 112.84
DTT-4 20.57 22.67 25.21 -8.66 -15.28 324.84
DTT-5 -6.68 117.96 13.68 -35.48 -11.14 355.03
IP 20.04 26.57 18.77 90.17 11.24 22.64
RF-1 35.28 62.33 7.38 40.24 30.15 207.17
RF-2 11.08 58.77 -7.11 -39.59 2.41 *
MF -18.24 66.06 -56.79 -57.39 -30.67 *
Note: * these are discussed in para 4.8 (c)
75
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
‐50
‐100
DS T P
T
IP
F
SA
‐1
‐2
5
AP
D S ‐1
2
‐1
‐2
M
M
T‐
T‐
T‐
T‐
T‐
L‐
RF
RF
DT
DT
L
S
TB
TB
DT
DT
DT
DT
DT
Fig 4.6: Precipitation changes (%) corresponding to various seasons during 1961-2000 over
different Forest types of Pakistan
4.6 Past Precipitation Changes (1961-2000), Discussion and Results

Past precipitation trends look dominant in the scrub forests, in particular, over the Dry
Tropical Thorn forests and then over the Riverine Forest. A broad discussion is made by
dividing the forests in three categories namely Himalayan, Scrub and the other forests:
4.6.1 Himalayan Forests

The forest types AP, SA, DT-1and DT-2 are located in Greater Himalayan region except DT-
2 which is located at Ziarat in Balochistan province, but this being a species of Coniferous
forests, is also included in this category of Himalayan forests. Both STP and MT located in
the sub-montane regions of Himalayas, the region dominated by monsoon rains also constitute
the same category.
A variation of ±20% in precipitation is generally seen in case of AP, SA, DT-1, DT-2 and
MT. These forest types have highest rainfall during winter and spring, which compared to
other seasons have dropped over these forest types. MT and STP, however show somewhat
different behaviour. Over MT, autumn and winter precipitation changes are negative, whereas
76
spring, monsoon and summer rains have gone up by 18, 38 and 72 % respectively over the
period 1961-2000. STP has shown negative trends for autumn, winter and spring but positive
trends are seen for monsoon and summer seasons, but the trends are lower than what have
been observed for MT.
4.6.2 Scrub Forests

Precipitation changes in case of DSTBL-1, DSTBL-2, DTT-1 and DTT-2 are not very high
and generally range within -30% to 40%. DTT-2 however, records an increase around 70% in
summer. For DTT-3, 4 &5, the precipitation changes in the seasons except for autumn are
small and are within -10 to 40%. Autumn shows increases to the tune of 110, 325 & 355%
respectively for DTT-1, DTT-2 and DTT-3.
4.6.3 IP, Riverine and Mangrove Forests

IP recorded increases within 10 to 30% for all seasons except summer where it recorded an
increase above 80%
RF-1, RF-2 and MF all have higher variations during winter and autumn seasons, winter
within 40 to 810% and autumn above 200% in case of RF-1. Autumn, being the driest season
over the country, and in particular over RF-2 , the regression method to see the trends could
not be used because of many years remaining dry during the period. A decadal analysis was
carried out for the two forest types which showed the following precipitation values in
millimeters (mm) for different decades:
Forest Type 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-2000

RF-2 1.97 4.59 2.17 12.88
MF 4.91 9.93 2.58 31.87
These values are shown in Figs. 4.7 and 4.8 as well.
77
Fig. 4.7: Decadal Variation in autumn precipitation during 1961-2000 for RF-2
Fig. 4.8: Decadal Variation in autumn precipitation during 1961-2000 for MF
------------------------------------------- x x x x x x x --------------------------------------------
78
Chapter 5
Projected Climate Changes over different Forest Types
of Pakistan
5.1 Introduction
Climate change scenarios provide the best-available means of exploring how human activities
in future may change the composition of the atmosphere, how this may affect global climate,
and how the resulting climate changes may impact upon the environment and other sectors,
here in this case, the different forest types of Pakistan. It is here clarified that these projections
are not to be viewed as predictions or forecasts of future climate, but are the internally-
consistent pictures of possible future climates, each dependent on a set of prior assumptions.
5.2 Data and Methodology

The future climate change projections are developed using the outputs of ECHAM4, a Global
Circulation Model (GCM) developed by Max Planck Institute, Germany) with a resolution
around 2.8° x 2.8° (about 300km x 300km). Data used corresponds to the two different IPCC
SRES global emissions scenarios, namely A2 and B2. The GCM outputs are first downscaled
over the South Asia region and then over Pakistan and the different forest regions through the
masking technique. The coarse resolution of the GCM data is first interfaced with the
resolution of a Regional Climate model, here in this case with PRECIS, a model developed by
Hadley Centre, UK and has the resolution of 0.44° x 0.44° (about 50km x 50km).
The regional climate models while downscaling the coarse resolution data of a GCM employ
the land use, land use changes and the topographic features of the region for which the outputs
of a GCM are downscaled. The downscaling of GCM data has been done for four different
30-year time slices, namely: the base period (1961-1990) and the three futures: 2020s (2010-
2039), 2050s (2040-2069) and 2080s (2070-2099). Projections are developed for the climate
parameters namely Temperature (mean, minimum and maximum), Precipitation and Wind
Speed for different forest types of Pakistan. The future climate changes are worked out by
subtracting 30-year base period (1961-1990) values on annual and seasonal basis from the
corresponding 30-year future values. This is done for both A2 and B2 scenarios.
79
5.3 Analysis of Results
The projected outputs of regional climate model are given in Tables 5.1 to 5.18, for
temperature (mean, maximum and minimum) projections, in Tables 5.19 to 5.24 for
precipitation projections and in Tables 5.25 to 5.30 for wind speed projections at 10 meters
height for all seasons for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s for both A2 and B2 scenarios. Graphically
these changes are shown in Figures 5.1 to 5.30. Analysis is carried out separately for
Temperature, Precipitation and Wind parameters and conclusions are drawn accordingly.
The forest types, with their projected ranges are first consolidated for temperature,
precipitation and wind speed projected changes for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s for A2 and B2
scenarios for different seasons. Tables 5.31 & 5.32 are consolidated for projected temperature
changes and shown under different temperature ranges for mean, maximum and minimum
temperatures. These are then further consolidated in Tables 5.33 and 5.34 for 2050s and
2080s. Similarly, projected precipitation changes are worked out and shown for different
ranges for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s for both A2 and B2 scenarios (Tables 5.35 & 5.36). Wind
speed projections also for different ranges are consolidated on seasonal basis for all the three
time slices for A2 and B2 scenarios in Tables 5.37 & 5.38. The results drawn from the above
tables and figures are discussed for temperature for each forest types, whereas due to high
variability in case of precipitation and wind speed, the forest types are divided into three
broad regions (i) Himalayan Forest (ii) Scrub Forest and (iii) IP, Riverine and Mangrove
Forests and results drawn using the tables as well as figures.
5.4 Temperature Projections

This forest type located in Greater Himalayan region would likely warm up by 7-8°C in
monsoon, 6-7°C during autumn and 5-6°C in winter and summer by 2100 under A2 scenario
in its maximum temperature. This would likely result in the early start of the spring season.

This forest located again in the Greater Himalayan region would likely cross 7°C in the
monsoon season in maximum temperature as well as in the minimum temperature, indicating
80
that day and night temperatures would cross this limit. This forest type has again the
likelihood of attaining the temperatures between 6-7°C in autumn in its maximum as well as
in minimum temperatures. This forest type may also rise within 5-6°C in summer in its
maximum temperature. Spring season for this forest type, therefore, would likely start early.
5.4.2.2 Dry Temperate (DT)
It is studied in two parts DT-1 and DT-2 depending upon their latitudinal locations.
5.4.2.2.1 DT-1
It is located in Greater Himalayan region. This forest type has the likelihood of getting
warmed up above 7°C in winter and monsoon in its minimum temperature. Its autumn will
also be warmed up to within 6-7°C in its maximum temperature. Its spring and summer would
also likely warm up to within 5-6°C in both maximum and minimum temperatures. Spring
season is therefore likely to start early and because of summer also getting warmer, the
productive nature of this forest type would likely change.
5.4.2.2.2 DT-2
This Dry-temperate forest type located in Ziarat, Balochistan has the likelihood of attaining
the temperature increases between 7-8°C in its minimum and 5-6°C in its maximum
temperature during monsoon season. Its autumn and summer would also likely warm up to
within 6-7°C in their minimum temperatures.
5.4.3 Moist Temperate (MT)

The autumn over this forest type would likely warm up by 5-6°C in both maximum and
minimum temperatures. Winter projects warming by 5-6°C in maximum temperature and a
warming by 6-7°C during spring in its minimum temperature. This reflects a much early start
of spring over this forest type.
5.4.4 Sub-Tropical Pine (STP)

Winter and spring over this forest type would likely be warmed up by 5-6°C in its maximum
temperature, whereas spring would be warmed up by 6-7°C in its minimum temperature.
Autumn over this forest type would likely remain below 4°C in both maximum and minimum
temperatures. This gives an indication of the spring to shorten and start early.
81
5.4.5 Scrub Forests
These have two main biomes: i) Dry sub-tropical broad leaved (DSTBL) forests, and ii) Dry
tropical thorn (DTT). Biome (i) is studied in two parts on account of its different latitudinal
locations, whereas DTT is studied in five parts DTT-1 to DTT-5 depending again on their
locations on latitudinal basis.
5.4.5.1 Dry Sub-Tropical Broad-leaved (DSTBL)

5.4.5.1.1 DSTBL-1
Winter and spring both have the likelihood of getting warmed up by 5-6°C in their maximum
and minimum temperatures. Early start of spring and early maturity of food products would
likely result.
5.4.5.1.2 DSTBL-2
Winter, spring and summer over this forest type would likely warm up by 5-6°C in minimum
temperature. Winter would likely warm up within 4-5°C in its maximum temperature. The
collective impact of these changes would likely start the spring season early and change the
other characteristics of the forest type.
5.4.5.2 DTT
This forest type comprising five parts, DTT-1 to DTT-5 is studied considering their locations
latitude wise.
5.4.5.2.1 DTT-1
The autumn of this forest type is projected to be warmer by 5-6°C in minimum temperatures.
Spring and monsoon would be 6-7°C warmer in minimum temperature whereas 5-6°C in
maximum temperature during winter. Monsoon season would be warmer by 6-7 °C in
minimum but less than 4°C in maximum temperature.
5.4.5.2.2 DTT-2
Spring over this forest type would likely be warmer by 6-7°C in minimum temperature but 5-
6°C during winter in maximum temperature. Spring would also have warming within 4-5 °C
82
in maximum temperature. Summer would have 5-6°C warming in minimum temperature but
within 4-5 °C in maximum temperature.
5.4.5.2.3 DTT-3
Autumn of this forest would likely be warmer by 5-6 °C in minimum temperature. Monsoon
and autumn would be warmer by 6-7°C in minimum temperatures but would have warming
respectively by 5-6°C in winter and 4-5°C in summer in maximum temperature.
5.4.5.2.4 DTT-4
Autumn of this forest type would likely be warmer by 6-7°C in minimum temperature and by
5-6°C in maximum temperature during monsoon. Winter would be warmer by 5-6°C in both
maximum and minimum temperatures, whereas spring shows warming by 5-6°C in minimum
but 4-5°C in maximum temperature. Monsoon season is seen to be warmest having 7-8°C
rises in minimum temperature but 5-6°C in maximum temperature.
5.4.5.2.5 DTT-5
Autumn and winter would likely be warmer by 6-7°C in minimum temperature and show
warming by 5-6°C in maximum temperature during winter. Spring, in sequence, would likely
warm up by 5-6°C in minimum temperature but warming by 4-5°C in maximum temperature.
Summer and monsoon would attain less warming to the tune of 4-5°C in minimum
temperature and even less warming in maximum temperature.

Autumn season would likely warm up by 4-5°C but its summer and spring would have higher
warming by 6-7°C in their minimum temperatures. Warming in maximum temperature would
remain within 4-5°C in winter and spring and less warming in the remaining seasons.
5.4.7 Riverine Forests (RF)

This forest type, because of its fairly long latitudinal extension along the Indus River down to
the Sindh province, is divided into two parts RF-1 and RF-2 and these parts are separately
discussed.
83
5.4.7.1 RF-1
Autumn and spring would likely have the warming within 6-7°C in their minimum
temperatures but a less warming to the tune of 5-6°C in winter for maximum temperature and
even less is seen in the subsequent seasons. Spring, summer and monsoon would likely attain
warming within 5-6°C in minimum temperature but less warming within 3-5°C in maximum
temperature.
5.4.7.2 RF-2
A warming trend almost similar to RF-1 is seen for RF-2.

Autumn would likely be warmed up within 5-6°C followed by 6-7°C during spring in their
minimum temperatures. Rise in maximum temperature would be less within 3-5°C.
5.5 Precipitation Projections

The table 19-24 and figures 19-24 on precipitation projections show, in general, a different
behavior for Himalayan forests (AP, SA, DT-1, DT-2, MT & STP), Scrub forests (DSTBL-1,
DSTBL-2, DTT-1,2,3,4,5) and for other forests (IP, RF-1, RF-2 & MF). These are discussed
separately under the above headings.

5.5.1.1 AP, SA, DT-1, DT-2
These forest types are located in Greater Himalayan region except DT-2 which is located
down at Ziarat in Balochistan. Annual rainfall at these forest types is seen remain within
250mm to 475mm (1961-2000). Sub-Alpine gets the highest rainfall with maximum in winter
and spring.
AP and SA show similar projected values within 0-20% on annual and for winter and spring
seasons. AP rainfall during summer, monsoon and autumn is projected to decrease within -20
to 0%. AP, SA & DT-1 all show decline in projected values by -20 to 0% by 2050 and by -60
to -20 by 2080s. DT-2 shows relatively higher projected values to the tune of 0-120% with
negative trends in winter and spring. Highest projected changes are seen in autumn (100-120
84
%) by 2050s and then declining to 60-80% by 2080s. Next highest is seen in monsoon (80-
100% by 2080s).
5.5.2 MT & STP

Both these forest types fall within the monsoon dominated region and get respectively rains
around 750mm-1100mm on annual basis with highest during monsoon season around 250mm
for MT and 450 for STP.
Rainfall over these forest types are projected to increase within 20-40% annually by 2050s
and 40-60% by 2080s in case of STP. The highest trend for STP on seasonal basis is seen
during summer which would be around 60-80%.
5.5.3 Scrub Forests

5.5.3.1 DSTBL-1, DSTBL-2
These forest types are located in the monsoon dominated region more in case of DSTBL-2.
The total annual rainfall respectively for DSTBL-1 & DSTBL-2 is around 900 & 650mm. The
projected rainfall over these forest types on annual basis would be expected by around 40 to
60%. Highest projections are seen for DSTBL-1 in summer (80-100%) and in autumn in
DSTBL-2 (100-120% by 2050s decreases to 80-100% by 2080s). The other seasons viz.
winter, spring & monsoon seasons project comparatively less rains).
5.5.3.2 DTT-1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Overall the precipitation is projected to increase over these forest types except for DTT-1, 3 &
4 which show decreasing trends during the spring season and DTT-5 also shows the
decreasing trend in winter season. This decrease would be around 0 to 20%. Highest trends
would likely be as given under for different seasons:
Summer Autumn
200-220% by 2050
DTT-2
160-180% by 2080
520-540% by 2050s
DTT-3
340-360% by 2080s
440-460% by 2050s
DTT-4
200-220% by 2080s
740-760% by 2050s
DTT-5
100-120% by 2080s
85
5.5.4 Other forests (IP, RF-1, RF-2 & MF)
IP is located in monsoon dominated region and as such gets highest rainfall around 480mm in
monsoon season out of a total of 725mm on annual basis. MF comes next which receives
around 165mm in monsoon out of a total of around 205mm received annually. RF-1 & RF-2
received 130mm rainfall with highest again during monsoon season (around 100mm). The
highest projected trends are seen during the seasons as mentioned for these forest types:
Summer Autumn
100-120% by 2050 120-140% by 2050
IP
140-160% by 2080 80-100% by 2080
180-200% by 2050 120-140% by 2050
RF-1
40-60% by 2080 100-120% by 2080
160-180% by 2050 140-160% by 2050
RF-2
20-40% by 2080 320-340% by 2080
120-140% by 2050
MF
300-320% by 2080
It may be seen here that autumn rainfall over these forest types ranges from 2 to 5mm for RF-
1 and RF-2. For IP it is around 180mm & for MF, it is around 12mm.
5.6 Wind Projections

AP gets high projected values during winter and monsoon. Variations in spring, summer and
autumn are generally negative. Variations for DT-1 ranges within -0.1 to 0.1 and for other
forest types are generally negative but DT-2 shows a mixed situation with winter shows high
negative value.
5.6.2 Scrub Forests

Projections are generally negative for DSTBL-1 & DSTBL-2 with summer show positive
values for DSTBL-1. Among different DTT categories, DTT-5 recorded the highest variations
to the tune of 0.2 to 0.65 in spring, summer & autumn and comparatively less in other
seasons. DTT-3 comes next where it shows high value in monsoon. DTT-2 shows highest
projections during autumn and spring. For DTT-1 & 4, these projections are either on the
lower side or negative.
86
5.6.3 IP, Riverine and Mangrove Forests
Projections for IP are either lower positive or negative where winter and monsoon show
higher negative values of around 0.3. Projections for RF-1, RF-2 and MF are quite visible and
are seen highest for MF and then in sequence for RF-2 and RF-1 during summer season.
Monsoon projects highest values for RF-1 and then for RF-2 and MF. Autumn also have
fairly high projected values of wind speed but winter remains within 0-0.1 for RF-1 & RF-2
and 0.1-0.15 for MF.
All the values given in the discussion under para 5.6 are taken from Table 5.37 developed for
A2 scenario.
87
Table 5.1: Annual Mean Temperature (°C) Projections
Forest Types A2 - Scenario B2 - Scenario

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 1.62 3.31 5.48 1.2 2.87 4.08
SA 1.84 3.7 6.12 1.45 3.31 4.65
DT-1 1.74 3.67 6.02 1.48 3.27 4.58
DT-2 1.7 3.44 5.58 1.38 3.01 4.1
MT 1.38 3.02 5.09 1.21 2.67 3.77
STP 1.13 2.57 4.41 0.94 2.22 3.25
DSTBL-1 1.07 2.48 4.4 0.9 2.12 3.26
DSTBL-2 1.03 2.4 4.22 0.77 1.99 3.14
DTT-1 1.5 3.07 5.05 1.17 2.61 3.77
DTT-2 1.48 2.87 4.82 0.99 2.42 3.64
DTT-3 1.53 3.05 5.05 1.26 2.48 3.76
DTT-4 1.76 3.47 5.55 1.44 3.01 4.13
DTT-5 1.51 3.02 4.72 1.36 2.53 3.66
IP 1.11 2.32 4.09 0.65 1.92 2.96
RF-1 1.68 3.25 5.17 1.3 2.71 3.92
RF-2 1.5 3.02 4.73 1.31 2.56 3.65
MF 1.32 2.73 4.35 1.34 2.38 3.35
Table 5.2: Winter (DJF) Mean Temperature (°C) Projections

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 2.16 4.01 5.79 1.14 3.27 4.54
SA 2.10 3.97 6.03 1.50 3.39 4.66
DT-1 2.11 4.47 6.54 1.89 3.82 5.10
DT-2 1.92 3.80 5.71 1.84 3.44 4.36
MT 1.95 3.92 6.08 1.81 3.51 4.62
STP 1.89 3.88 5.69 1.72 3.31 4.47
DSTBL-1 1.87 3.83 5.59 1.83 3.29 4.52
DSTBL-2 1.83 3.72 5.40 1.53 3.04 4.36
DTT-1 1.97 3.98 5.81 1.88 3.52 4.56
DTT-2 2.25 4.30 6.06 1.72 3.53 4.78
DTT-3 2.05 3.93 5.73 1.88 3.42 4.57
DTT-4 1.77 3.62 5.50 1.65 3.25 4.29
DTT-5 2.08 4.33 6.10 2.00 3.72 4.91
IP 2.00 3.87 5.55 1.33 3.17 4.31
RF-1 2.11 4.21 6.01 1.88 3.56 4.75
RF-2 2.00 4.12 5.87 1.91 3.55 4.70
MF 1.80 3.80 5.53 1.88 3.34 4.42
88
Table 5.3: Spring (MA) Mean Temperature (°C) Projections

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 1.33 3.26 4.51 1.15 2.62 3.36
SA 1.37 3.43 4.89 1.2 2.6 3.61
DT-1 1.43 3.52 5.1 1.3 2.66 3.63
DT-2 1.28 3.45 4.91 0.97 2.59 3.79
MT 1.37 3.76 5.52 1.32 2.83 3.95
STP 1.38 3.66 5.12 1.21 2.66 3.73
DSTBL-1 1.53 3.77 5.07 1.14 2.61 3.85
DSTBL-2 1.57 3.91 5.3 1.26 2.76 4.05
DTT-1 1.58 3.77 5.19 1.14 2.72 3.95
DTT-2 1.77 4.08 5.58 1.41 3.04 4.33
DTT-3 1.61 3.61 5.09 1.21 2.75 4
DTT-4 1.37 3.38 4.88 1 2.68 3.87
DTT-5 1.54 3.16 4.87 1.38 2.73 3.86
IP 1.71 3.98 5.44 1.33 2.95 4.13
RF-1 1.66 3.74 5.33 1.35 2.95 4.14
RF-2 1.49 3.2 4.88 1.3 2.71 3.83
MF 1.37 2.63 4.33 1.33 2.45 3.4
Table 5.4: Summer (MJ) Mean Temperature (°C) Projections

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 1.46 2.87 4.61 1.14 2.19 3.26
SA 1.56 3.45 5.61 1.12 2.73 3.83
DT-1 1.39 3.27 5.36 0.96 2.56 3.68
DT-2 1.72 3.29 5.51 1.11 2.73 3.78
MT 1.06 2.52 4.5 0.35 1.84 2.98
STP 0.91 1.89 3.98 -0.12 1.3 2.57
DSTBL-1 1.08 2.33 4.43 0.19 1.77 2.93
DSTBL-2 1.14 2.26 4.33 0.15 1.77 2.94
DTT-1 1.47 2.82 4.99 0.6 2.21 3.43
DTT-2 1.65 2.75 4.86 0.78 2.36 3.43
DTT-3 1.84 3.15 5.32 1.11 2.6 3.67
DTT-4 1.94 3.45 5.69 1.33 2.81 3.97
DTT-5 1.47 2.32 3.8 1.2 1.95 3.01
IP 1.22 2.14 4.13 0.21 1.72 2.74
RF-1 1.87 2.99 5.04 1.19 2.5 3.6
RF-2 1.58 2.51 4.08 1.21 2.05 3.15
MF 1.21 2.13 3.43 1.14 1.76 2.73
89
Table 5.5: Monsoon (JAS) Mean Temperature (°C) Projections

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 1.62 3.07 6.28 1.33 2.94 4.49
SA 2.44 4.03 7.41 1.82 4.02 5.73
DT-1 2.14 3.72 6.86 1.67 3.74 5.38
DT-2 2.02 3.49 6.13 1.67 3.28 4.34
MT 1.36 2.35 4.58 1.31 2.44 3.37
STP 0.77 1.56 3.41 0.95 1.77 2.31
DSTBL-1 0.54 1.24 3.42 0.70 1.40 2.09
DSTBL-2 0.45 1.15 2.96 0.61 1.25 1.75
DTT-1 1.26 2.16 4.40 1.06 2.04 3.02
DTT-2 0.82 1.48 3.26 0.54 1.29 1.97
DTT-3 1.33 2.58 4.78 1.23 1.97 3.09
DTT-4 2.01 3.55 6.04 1.70 3.25 4.23
DTT-5 1.08 2.19 3.72 0.95 1.67 2.48
IP 0.36 0.90 2.38 0.41 0.90 1.33
RF-1 1.37 2.39 4.28 1.00 2.04 2.86
RF-2 1.10 2.27 3.83 0.91 1.92 2.59
MF 0.93 2.10 3.59 1.00 1.82 2.52
Table 5.6: Autumn (ON) Mean Temperature (°C) Projections

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 1.50 3.08 5.82 1.19 3.26 4.48
SA 1.55 3.24 6.27 1.41 3.59 4.91
DT-1 1.52 3.00 5.79 1.26 3.18 4.55
DT-2 1.42 2.80 5.44 0.98 2.78 4.02
MT 1.10 2.38 4.76 0.90 2.51 3.74
STP 0.69 1.68 3.92 0.54 1.77 3.11
DSTBL-1 0.39 1.12 3.55 0.24 1.37 2.98
DSTBL-2 0.26 0.88 3.32 -0.09 1.00 2.79
DTT-1 1.21 2.51 4.99 0.86 2.50 3.90
DTT-2 1.00 1.59 4.63 0.29 2.01 3.96
DTT-3 0.73 1.61 4.26 0.55 1.49 3.39
DTT-4 1.58 3.03 5.57 1.31 2.91 4.13
DTT-5 1.36 2.70 5.04 1.18 2.50 4.01
IP 0.36 0.57 3.26 -0.32 0.80 2.51
RF-1 1.38 2.66 5.32 0.93 2.53 4.38
RF-2 1.31 2.68 5.01 1.12 2.51 3.97
MF 1.27 2.65 4.76 1.26 2.37 3.51
90
Table 5.7: Annual Maximum Temperature (°C) Projections

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 1.67 3.35 5.77 1.23 3.15 4.34
SA 1.90 3.70 6.23 1.53 3.43 4.72
DT-1 1.62 3.52 5.99 1.40 3.23 4.54
DT-2 1.41 3.13 5.20 1.16 2.82 3.80
MT 1.28 2.88 5.04 1.13 2.63 3.66
STP 0.81 2.12 3.91 0.70 1.89 2.79
DSTBL-1 0.72 1.98 3.86 0.65 1.70 2.79
DSTBL-2 0.59 1.75 3.48 0.38 1.41 2.51
DTT-1 1.17 2.63 4.51 0.92 2.28 3.31
DTT-2 1.04 2.19 3.95 0.60 1.87 2.95
DTT-3 1.03 2.32 4.14 0.81 1.87 3.01
DTT-4 1.42 3.07 5.09 1.15 2.69 3.73
DTT-5 1.16 2.40 3.96 0.96 1.92 2.96
IP 0.60 1.60 3.25 0.22 1.35 2.30
RF-1 1.23 2.57 4.33 0.89 2.14 3.20
RF-2 1.15 2.46 4.05 0.94 2.03 3.03
MF 1.10 2.29 3.78 1.08 1.94 2.85
Table 5.8: Winter (DJF) Maximum Temperature (°C) Projections

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 2.09 3.96 5.85 1.49 3.71 4.76
SA 1.92 3.68 5.62 1.86 3.48 4.42
DT-1 1.90 4.13 6.22 2.20 3.83 4.90
DT-2 1.78 3.86 5.78 2.11 3.70 4.48
MT 1.88 3.83 5.90 2.15 3.70 4.56
STP 1.67 3.73 5.49 1.97 3.39 4.42
DSTBL-1 1.63 3.62 5.31 1.93 3.20 4.31
DSTBL-2 1.43 3.31 4.84 1.53 2.77 3.98
DTT-1 1.75 3.85 5.64 2.00 3.53 4.46
DTT-2 1.80 3.80 5.39 1.61 3.22 4.27
DTT-3 1.74 3.59 5.27 1.81 3.25 4.29
DTT-4 1.51 3.33 5.13 1.61 3.10 4.01
DTT-5 1.71 3.70 5.26 1.64 3.23 4.25
IP 1.45 3.35 4.83 1.21 2.88 3.84
RF-1 1.75 3.75 5.39 1.74 3.23 4.30
RF-2 1.68 3.62 5.20 1.66 3.18 4.19
MF 1.58 3.43 4.98 1.64 3.07 4.02
91
Table 5.9: Spring (MA) Maximum Temperature (°C) Projections

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 1.09 2.60 3.74 0.88 1.96 2.73
SA 1.30 3.32 4.94 1.18 2.33 3.46
DT-1 1.18 3.35 5.02 1.12 2.30 3.39
DT-2 1.05 3.29 4.74 0.66 2.31 3.55
MT 1.25 3.83 5.91 1.32 2.85 4.07
STP 1.19 3.48 5.01 1.02 2.49 3.50
DSTBL-1 1.36 3.66 5.03 0.96 2.46 3.65
DSTBL-2 1.32 3.61 4.97 0.96 2.46 3.63
DTT-1 1.35 3.54 4.97 0.94 2.47 3.68
DTT-2 1.44 3.55 4.94 1.07 2.57 3.80
DTT-3 1.35 3.35 4.76 0.91 2.42 3.64
DTT-4 1.14 3.02 4.47 0.68 2.27 3.46
DTT-5 1.29 2.88 4.53 1.07 2.41 3.46
IP 1.44 3.56 4.97 1.04 2.57 3.66
RF-1 1.35 3.37 4.83 0.98 2.50 3.68
RF-2 1.28 3.02 4.62 1.02 2.42 3.50
MF 1.28 2.39 4.12 1.18 2.24 3.17
Table 5.10: Summer (MJ) Maximum Temperature (°C) Projections

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 1.29 3.03 5.17 1.07 2.56 3.41
SA 1.57 3.60 5.95 1.15 3.04 3.92
DT-1 0.97 2.96 5.01 0.53 2.32 3.24
DT-2 1.46 3.02 5.20 0.87 2.58 3.55
MT 0.87 2.38 4.44 0.01 1.68 2.75
STP 0.70 1.49 3.58 -0.54 0.97 2.07
DSTBL-1 0.88 1.91 3.98 -0.05 1.43 2.51
DSTBL-2 0.81 1.67 3.67 -0.36 1.19 2.31
DTT-1 1.21 2.34 4.47 0.29 1.84 2.94
DTT-2 1.33 2.13 4.06 0.33 1.78 2.81
DTT-3 1.48 2.56 4.66 0.73 2.17 3.11
DTT-4 1.59 3.12 5.30 1.05 2.61 3.61
DTT-5 1.38 1.99 3.48 0.97 1.66 2.71
IP 0.82 1.47 3.40 -0.42 1.08 2.11
RF-1 1.53 2.51 4.51 0.79 2.10 3.10
RF-2 1.44 2.18 3.78 0.97 1.76 2.88
MF 1.13 1.77 3.02 1.01 1.46 2.48
92
Table 5.11: Monsoon (JAS) Maximum Temperature (°C) Projections

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 2.01 3.59 7.16 1.31 3.46 5.23
SA 2.62 4.24 7.68 1.66 4.16 6.05
DT-1 2.23 3.82 7.06 1.48 3.75 5.58
DT-2 1.62 2.93 5.3 1.2 2.71 3.66
MT 1.13 2.02 4.08 0.96 2.04 2.89
STP 0.19 0.83 2.32 0.44 0.98 1.29
DSTBL-1 -0.09 0.44 2.44 0.15 0.55 1.16
DSTBL-2 -0.12 0.45 2.08 0.09 0.47 0.94
DTT-1 0.79 1.44 3.41 0.53 1.33 2.2
DTT-2 0.43 0.93 2.52 0.1 0.73 1.35
DTT-3 0.47 1.36 3.1 0.41 0.65 1.59
DTT-4 1.72 3.18 5.62 1.33 2.85 3.84
DTT-5 0.72 1.54 3.09 0.54 0.86 1.7
IP -0.19 0.25 1.6 -0.07 0.24 0.6
RF-1 0.89 1.63 3.36 0.48 1.3 1.95
RF-2 0.72 1.66 3.13 0.47 1.19 1.8
MF 0.71 1.75 3.13 0.71 1.25 1.98
Table 5.12: Autumn (ON) Maximum Temperature (°C) Projections
A2 - Scenario B2 - Scenario
Forest Types 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 1.73 3.13 6.38 1.23 3.77 5.03
SA 1.92 3.33 6.80 1.58 3.93 5.23
DT-1 1.67 2.97 6.30 1.24 3.50 4.99
DT-2 1.11 2.24 4.91 0.55 2.46 3.59
MT 1.23 2.27 5.21 0.79 2.70 4.01
STP 0.43 0.97 3.48 0.12 1.31 2.71
DSTBL-1 0.02 0.27 2.79 -0.15 0.71 2.43
DSTBL-2 -0.34 -0.41 2.06 -0.77 -0.06 1.84
DTT-1 0.89 1.93 4.30 0.52 2.13 3.35
DTT-2 0.32 0.34 3.07 -0.43 0.92 2.73
DTT-3 0.20 0.51 3.08 -0.06 0.81 2.53
DTT-4 1.07 2.32 4.82 0.79 2.43 3.53
DTT-5 0.67 1.54 3.38 0.45 1.31 2.66
IP -0.36 -0.79 1.74 -1.08 -0.25 1.47
RF-1 0.63 1.33 3.70 0.21 1.45 3.08
RF-2 0.65 1.57 3.52 0.45 1.48 2.84
MF 0.80 1.75 3.49 0.73 1.44 2.45
93
Table 5.13: Annual Minimum Temperature (°C) Projections

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 1.62 3.39 5.44 1.29 2.80 4.04
SA 1.83 3.81 6.25 1.53 3.34 4.75
DT-1 1.95 4.04 6.39 1.73 3.54 4.91
DT-2 2.09 3.90 6.17 1.69 3.36 4.59
MT 1.58 3.35 5.50 1.41 2.91 4.13
STP 1.54 3.19 5.16 1.30 2.75 3.90
DSTBL-1 1.44 3.00 4.98 1.20 2.60 3.80
DSTBL-2 1.51 3.11 5.05 1.23 2.67 3.89
DTT-1 1.92 3.70 5.87 1.53 3.15 4.44
DTT-2 1.85 3.50 5.60 1.35 2.96 4.29
DTT-3 2.05 3.79 6.02 1.73 3.15 4.55
DTT-4 2.18 4.00 6.25 1.82 3.48 4.71
DTT-5 1.86 3.66 5.59 1.74 3.18 4.40
IP 1.50 2.98 4.88 1.16 2.60 3.74
RF-1 2.13 3.94 6.02 1.75 3.36 4.68
RF-2 1.84 3.59 5.49 1.65 3.12 4.28
MF 1.53 3.16 4.94 1.53 2.77 3.83
Table 5.14: Winter (DJF) Minimum Temperature (°C) Projections

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 2.33 4.32 6.20 1.09 3.39 4.80
SA 2.33 4.37 6.61 1.46 3.60 5.06
DT-1 2.40 5.05 7.39 1.85 4.15 5.68
DT-2 1.96 3.59 5.49 1.53 3.07 4.15
MT 2.08 4.09 6.45 1.64 3.50 4.84
STP 2.18 4.13 6.09 1.63 3.42 4.69
DSTBL-1 2.07 4.01 5.89 1.82 3.47 4.75
DSTBL-2 2.20 4.11 5.98 1.66 3.40 4.79
DTT-1 2.22 4.07 6.01 1.86 3.55 4.70
DTT-2 2.56 4.59 6.56 1.78 3.75 5.16
DTT-3 2.29 4.09 6.10 1.98 3.58 4.77
DTT-4 2.04 3.85 5.88 1.70 3.41 4.57
DTT-5 2.39 4.82 6.84 2.26 4.16 5.46
IP 2.34 4.21 6.04 1.55 3.51 4.83
RF-1 2.37 4.47 6.47 1.96 3.84 5.12
RF-2 2.24 4.40 6.36 2.07 3.81 5.06
MF 1.96 4.12 6.03 2.04 3.58 4.78
94
Table 5.15: Spring (MA) Minimum Temperature (°C) Projections

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 1.53 3.95 5.35 1.45 3.21 4.05
SA 1.49 3.75 5.27 1.35 2.96 4.08
DT-1 1.74 3.95 5.43 1.62 3.18 4.09
DT-2 1.63 3.74 5.25 1.40 2.99 4.15
MT 1.57 3.96 5.57 1.41 2.97 4.12
STP 1.70 4.04 5.55 1.47 2.97 4.18
DSTBL-1 1.72 3.84 5.11 1.30 2.71 4.02
DSTBL-2 1.88 4.28 5.74 1.61 3.12 4.56
DTT-1 1.82 4.05 5.56 1.44 3.09 4.32
DTT-2 2.06 4.60 6.20 1.72 3.47 4.83
DTT-3 1.97 3.97 5.54 1.67 3.18 4.44
DTT-4 1.66 3.76 5.41 1.43 3.14 4.36
DTT-5 1.81 3.67 5.40 1.68 3.13 4.36
IP 2.05 4.40 6.01 1.73 3.40 4.76
RF-1 2.05 4.20 5.94 1.83 3.47 4.70
RF-2 1.67 3.60 5.34 1.56 3.07 4.23
MF 1.51 3.11 4.80 1.50 2.76 3.81
Table 5.16: Summer (MJ) Minimum Temperature (°C) Projections
Forest Types A2 - Scenario B2 – Scenario

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 1.60 2.81 4.14 1.24 1.78 3.12
SA 1.59 3.34 5.37 1.10 2.43 3.81
DT-1 1.90 3.71 5.92 1.49 2.91 4.34
DT-2 2.18 3.76 6.03 1.42 2.93 4.19
MT 1.39 3.02 5.06 0.86 2.26 3.56
STP 1.26 2.65 4.78 0.56 2.00 3.41
DSTBL-1 1.33 2.80 4.94 0.55 2.19 3.39
DSTBL-2 1.61 3.13 5.36 0.89 2.64 3.84
DTT-1 1.88 3.55 5.81 1.00 2.75 4.17
DTT-2 1.93 3.42 5.73 1.17 2.96 4.06
DTT-3 2.23 3.82 6.05 1.48 2.98 4.29
DTT-4 2.45 3.95 6.35 1.70 3.14 4.49
DTT-5 1.65 2.91 4.56 1.45 2.44 3.53
IP 1.57 2.82 5.04 0.99 2.55 3.58
RF-1 2.24 3.67 5.82 1.63 3.13 4.28
RF-2 1.80 3.02 4.72 1.44 2.53 3.56
MF 1.33 2.47 3.91 1.22 2.06 3.02
95
Table 5.17: Monsoon (JAS) Minimum Temperature (°C) Projections

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 1.28 2.56 5.40 1.38 2.41 3.72
SA 2.29 3.96 7.38 2.10 3.98 5.58
DT-1 2.22 3.93 7.06 2.01 4.02 5.54
DT-2 2.69 4.60 7.69 2.42 4.40 5.63
MT 1.69 2.90 5.49 1.79 3.04 4.20
STP 1.45 2.51 4.70 1.55 2.70 3.52
DSTBL-1 1.28 2.25 4.56 1.36 2.40 3.24
DSTBL-2 1.08 1.99 3.93 1.22 2.14 2.79
DTT-1 2.02 3.49 6.14 1.87 3.30 4.49
DTT-2 1.23 2.05 3.92 1.01 1.89 2.69
DTT-3 2.25 3.97 6.70 2.13 3.45 4.79
DTT-4 2.58 4.37 7.19 2.34 4.16 5.20
DTT-5 1.42 2.81 4.52 1.39 2.54 3.36
IP 0.83 1.60 3.20 0.93 1.68 2.23
RF-1 1.93 3.26 5.30 1.64 2.93 3.94
RF-2 1.54 2.93 4.74 1.42 2.74 3.52
MF 1.12 2.40 4.04 1.21 2.25 2.98
Table 5.18: Autumn (ON) Minimum Temperature (°C) Projections

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 1.45 3.25 5.91 1.28 3.27 4.47
SA 1.26 3.24 6.08 1.35 3.47 4.73
DT-1 1.44 3.14 5.53 1.40 3.03 4.30
DT-2 1.71 3.41 6.04 1.37 3.15 4.45
MT 1.06 2.61 4.70 1.02 2.52 3.63
STP 1.03 2.47 4.63 0.95 2.39 3.64
DSTBL-1 0.74 1.90 4.31 0.58 2.01 3.51
DSTBL-2 0.82 2.03 4.51 0.51 2.02 3.69
DTT-1 1.53 3.11 5.74 1.14 2.91 4.37
DTT-2 1.57 2.85 6.08 0.95 3.02 5.07
DTT-3 1.27 2.62 5.45 1.09 2.32 4.21
DTT-4 2.01 3.71 6.24 1.68 3.37 4.65
DTT-5 2.01 3.77 6.62 1.85 3.63 5.29
IP 0.83 1.84 4.51 0.41 1.94 3.60
RF-1 2.02 3.92 6.78 1.60 3.55 5.52
RF-2 1.94 3.70 6.36 1.71 3.43 4.99
MF 1.69 3.43 5.88 1.63 3.17 4.51
96
Table 5.19: Annual Precipitation Projections (%)

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 4.4 10.8 10.3 2.1 4.7 10.4
SA 4.0 12.8 9.9 4.3 6.3 11.1
DT-1 8.1 11.2 11.4 11.8 8.2 8.9
DT-2 42.3 29.7 26.4 31.9 27.9 36.4
MT 14.2 20.1 23.8 19.1 16.4 19.9
STP 20.8 34.1 49.9 24.6 29.8 42.6
DSTBL-1 31.4 41.9 35.5 25.6 35.9 30.9
DSTBL-2 30.6 44.2 49.1 39.9 46.0 44.7
DTT-1 27.5 43.0 51.9 27.6 40.6 39.6
DTT-2 40.2 74.7 80.8 62.0 66.3 78.6
DTT-3 45.2 66.6 68.9 38.0 77.2 54.3
DTT-4 78.4 87.8 65.5 29.6 88.3 70.1
DTT-5 51.4 66.9 91.0 66.4 113.1 103.7
IP 27.7 48.6 61.0 44.0 42.2 55.9
RF-1 32.3 53.7 69.9 56.2 80.9 64.3
RF-2 69.8 59.0 110.7 86.3 103.9 104.7
MF 104.0 60.2 80.6 85.1 116.4 110.8
Table 5.20: Winter (DJF) Precipitation Projections (%)

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 14.3 27.0 31.2 -6.1 10.9 18.4
SA 18.6 31.6 34.8 -7.8 9.3 21.1
DT-1 18.1 30.0 34.9 -9.4 10.2 17.8
DT-2 34.0 7.0 -5.7 -25.6 -31.4 5.2
MT 27.4 24.4 24.0 -7.3 5.9 15.2
STP 48.0 21.6 23.1 -10.8 -1.8 20.2
DSTBL-1 93.3 15.4 19.5 -29.3 -28.7 20.0
DSTBL-2 82.7 20.3 31.2 -18.5 -31.0 25.3
DTT-1 48.6 1.4 12.5 -45.3 -31.1 -3.6
DTT-2 114.8 39.3 38.0 -27.4 -44.8 61.3
DTT-3 130.2 -7.5 16.4 -29.8 -48.0 -6.7
DTT-4 117.9 40.2 43.1 -14.1 -0.7 32.0
DTT-5 -33.3 -30.5 -18.7 79.9 -50.0 143.0
IP 74.9 26.4 -7.1 2.5 -41.2 57.0
RF-1 101.1 -5.7 -28.4 -53.7 -65.8 -21.4
RF-2 80.3 -12.7 28.9 84.6 -61.7 6.6
MF 18.1 -21.5 67.7 126.5 -12.5 115.5
97
Table 5.21: Spring (MA) Precipitation Projections (%)

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 3.4 18.1 23.3 6.0 19.8 20.7
SA -1.6 11.2 9.2 5.6 14.4 15.2
DT-1 12.2 22.3 25.9 11.5 20.9 27.4
DT-2 29.3 0.0 -7.9 31.6 36.8 5.3
MT 14.7 15.9 15.7 15.7 21.1 28.1
STP 23.8 28.8 33.9 19.7 34.2 43.5
DSTBL-1 -1.7 13.1 35.7 18.1 12.7 29.8
DSTBL-2 10.9 22.3 26.3 35.3 15.0 27.3
DTT-1 1.7 -10.8 -3.7 2.1 0.7 -12.9
DTT-2 41.5 37.9 67.1 42.5 16.4 76.3
DTT-3 15.8 30.1 -2.0 -5.8 4.5 -3.5
DTT-4 17.9 -9.9 -15.2 54.2 -18.2 -18.0
DTT-5 -16.7 17.3 91.5 -32.9 -18.8 0.0
IP 18.5 47.6 77.5 89.5 41.7 67.0
RF-1 18.6 14.2 11.7 -5.3 -19.7 -4.6
RF-2 -8.0 -7.0 18.7 -20.1 -18.3 -10.1
MF 10.3 8.1 -22.8 -39.4 -25.9 29.6
Table 5.22: Summer (MJ) Precipitation Projections (%)

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 20.4 -1.0 -5.1 1.4 -9.0 21.1
SA 23.2 15.9 14.2 10.0 8.2 28.2
DT-1 18.0 2.5 6.5 17.5 4.5 15.1
DT-2 40.4 61.8 24.5 92.3 45.6 34.1
MT 24.8 28.1 32.7 37.6 32.0 27.5
STP 31.5 63.8 63.6 50.4 53.9 53.7
DSTBL-1 59.6 90.0 82.8 93.0 79.2 72.6
DSTBL-2 46.7 73.6 76.5 97.3 80.3 78.8
DTT-1 31.3 72.2 53.8 61.2 65.0 56.6
DTT-2 98.4 202.2 160.6 217.6 161.3 251.8
DTT-3 45.1 299.3 142.0 302.3 214.5 286.1
DTT-4 100.8 56.0 57.3 79.4 45.2 48.4
DTT-5 -38.3 747.0 112.1 765.1 360.7 660.4
IP 54.9 102.6 141.4 131.3 101.5 155.7
RF-1 45.1 180.9 46.8 174.6 106.3 137.3
RF-2 5.3 172.1 23.6 144.5 44.6 85.7
MF -9.9 90.8 53.7 44.3 -5.2 54.6
98
Table 5.23: Monsoon (JAS) Precipitation Projections (%)
A2 - Scenario B2 – Scenario
Forest Types 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP -25.98 -19.39 -45.43 23.09 -10.76 -34.86
SA -22.02 -12.19 -38.39 61.27 7.66 -23.98
DT-1 -13.87 -11.26 -28.73 35.48 -1.01 -28.03
DT-2 48.39 55.17 91.24 91.35 121.43 110.87
MT 8.49 16.77 33.58 38.11 17.9 29.39
STP 16.58 26.8 50.85 25.66 26.08 46.55
DSTBL-1 32.82 36.95 28.08 24.06 32.65 31.48
DSTBL-2 28.03 36.1 42.54 38.24 42.14 44.62
DTT-1 23.85 41.19 57.22 30 45.63 45.52
DTT-2 34.74 60.01 73.37 57.13 59.87 69.72
DTT-3 36.13 40.4 55.3 29.07 67.38 48.1
DTT-4 34.76 65.46 67.35 20.47 144.46 93.36
DTT-5 46.02 59.99 70.94 70.17 112.03 106.38
IP 21.08 35.7 49.62 35.2 36.41 44.87
RF-1 28.26 43.51 70.89 53.5 69.45 59.92
RF-2 67.25 49.55 93.99 95.76 104.29 112.9
MF 109.2 57.36 59.96 94.43 126.9 122.51
Table 5.24: Autumn (ON) Precipitation Projections (%)
Forest Types A2 – Scenario B2 – Scenario

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP -8.4 8.0 -7.0 -4.0 -9.6 -8.2
SA -13.8 4.7 -14.7 -9.5 -13.5 -14.9
DT-1 -4.4 14.0 4.1 1.4 1.0 -6.1
DT-2 80.0 116.1 66.6 103.2 39.2 14.3
MT -2.4 24.4 0.3 5.1 9.2 -9.0
STP 14.1 55.5 46.1 7.3 41.3 11.0
DSTBL-1 -17.9 53.3 51.3 -16.0 46.0 -19.6
DSTBL-2 24.6 113.7 98.0 8.1 81.5 13.4
DTT-1 64.8 100.0 98.6 21.8 41.6 22.2
DTT-2 41.4 163.6 119.3 39.9 123.5 76.9
DTT-3 196.1 523.8 347.3 153.3 279.7 129.6
DTT-4 277.5 441.6 202.1 96.4 128.2 122.2
DTT-5 166.4 133.5 360.0 20.0 170.4 62.1
IP 43.9 126.1 93.9 32.4 63.2 43.0
RF-1 54.4 134.5 104.2 90.6 312.8 137.9
RF-2 118.0 147.5 337.1 2.2 165.9 74.0
MF 161.0 125.3 317.6 29.4 131.3 50.8
99
Table 5.25: Annual Wind (m/s) Projections at 10 Meters

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 0.02 0.00 0.06 0.04 0.00 0.01
SA 0.01 0.01 0.02 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04
DT-1 0.00 0.00 0.03 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02
DT-2 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 0.02 -0.05 -0.06
MT -0.06 -0.09 -0.10 -0.06 -0.11 -0.11
STP -0.07 -0.10 -0.11 -0.07 -0.10 -0.09
DSTBL-1 -0.11 -0.17 -0.20 -0.09 -0.18 -0.19
DSTBL-2 -0.04 -0.05 -0.03 -0.07 -0.09 -0.06
DTT-1 -0.01 -0.01 -0.04 -0.01 -0.05 -0.05
DTT-2 -0.05 0.00 0.04 -0.08 -0.06 0.00
DTT-3 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.03 -0.03 0.00
DTT-4 -0.03 -0.05 -0.02 0.06 -0.06 -0.06
DTT-5 0.01 0.13 0.26 0.05 0.05 0.05
IP -0.05 -0.09 -0.10 -0.12 -0.13 -0.11
RF-1 0.05 0.14 0.22 0.08 0.10 0.13
RF-2 0.02 0.12 0.25 0.06 0.09 0.06
MF 0.00 0.12 0.28 0.04 0.01 0.03
Table 5.26: Winter (DJF) Wind (m/s) Projections at 10 Meters

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 0.13 0.08 0.16 -0.03 -0.01 0.02
SA 0.04 0.02 -0.03 -0.06 -0.07 -0.06
DT-1 0.06 0.06 0.06 -0.03 -0.01 0.00
DT-2 -0.06 -0.07 -0.16 0.00 -0.11 -0.13
MT -0.01 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.02 -0.01
STP -0.05 -0.05 -0.12 -0.04 -0.07 -0.04
DSTBL-1 -0.04 -0.07 -0.14 0.00 -0.08 -0.08
DSTBL-2 -0.03 -0.04 -0.09 -0.03 -0.07 -0.05
DTT-1 -0.11 -0.10 -0.22 -0.01 -0.14 -0.16
DTT-2 0.06 0.06 0.01 0.01 -0.03 0.02
DTT-3 -0.03 -0.03 -0.07 0.00 -0.06 -0.06
DTT-4 -0.04 -0.06 -0.09 0.00 -0.07 -0.09
DTT-5 0.05 0.16 0.08 0.07 0.04 0.06
IP -0.08 -0.10 -0.22 -0.15 -0.14 -0.15
RF-1 -0.02 0.00 -0.03 0.02 -0.04 -0.03
RF-2 0.02 0.08 0.04 0.05 0.01 0.01
MF 0.00 0.14 0.10 0.09 0.01 0.05
100
Table 5.27: Spring (MA) Wind (m/s) Projections at 10 Meters

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP -0.08 -0.19 -0.09 -0.02 -0.03 -0.17
SA -0.10 -0.15 -0.04 -0.07 -0.11 -0.20
DT-1 -0.03 -0.08 0.09 0.01 0.02 -0.09
DT-2 -0.03 0.00 0.06 0.10 0.06 0.02
MT -0.09 -0.11 -0.09 -0.07 -0.10 -0.15
STP -0.07 -0.05 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.11
DSTBL-1 -0.02 -0.06 -0.12 -0.04 -0.07 -0.11
DSTBL-2 -0.04 0.00 -0.02 -0.05 -0.02 -0.06
DTT-1 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.05 -0.06
DTT-2 -0.01 0.16 0.07 0.01 0.06 0.02
DTT-3 0.05 0.01 0.03 0.14 0.05 0.03
DTT-4 0.09 0.06 0.12 0.15 0.08 0.07
DTT-5 0.02 0.41 0.33 0.01 0.14 0.12
IP -0.01 0.02 -0.03 0.01 0.03 -0.04
RF-1 0.01 0.10 0.13 0.14 0.09 0.07
RF-2 -0.07 0.19 0.15 -0.05 0.02 0.00
MF 0.04 0.42 0.38 0.09 0.19 0.18
Table 5.28: Summer (MJ) Wind (m/s) Projections at 10 Meters

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.03
SA 0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.03 -0.06 -0.04
DT-1 -0.05 -0.08 -0.11 -0.06 -0.13 -0.05
DT-2 0.07 -0.07 -0.04 -0.07 -0.19 -0.04
MT -0.08 -0.16 -0.19 -0.16 -0.21 -0.13
STP -0.05 -0.15 -0.09 -0.13 -0.17 -0.05
DSTBL-1 -0.10 -0.22 -0.22 -0.21 -0.25 -0.22
DSTBL-2 0.01 0.03 0.07 -0.12 -0.09 0.01
DTT-1 0.07 -0.03 -0.05 -0.15 -0.14 0.01
DTT-2 -0.22 -0.10 0.05 -0.43 -0.22 -0.10
DTT-3 0.02 -0.05 -0.05 -0.06 -0.14 -0.05
DTT-4 -0.03 -0.07 -0.03 0.05 -0.12 -0.04
DTT-5 0.09 0.34 0.65 0.00 0.30 0.27
IP -0.04 0.04 0.02 -0.27 -0.15 -0.04
RF-1 -0.04 0.15 0.29 -0.08 0.09 0.13
RF-2 0.06 0.27 0.51 0.01 0.35 0.16
MF 0.13 0.23 0.48 -0.10 0.10 0.18
101
Table 5.29: Monsoon (JAS) Wind (m/s) Projections at 10 Meters

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 0.02 0.06 0.17 0.08 0.06 0.16
SA 0.00 0.09 0.12 -0.03 0.03 0.07
DT-1 -0.04 0.02 0.01 -0.04 -0.04 -0.01
DT-2 -0.04 0.05 0.07 0.00 0.04 -0.01
MT -0.08 -0.08 -0.10 -0.07 -0.14 -0.12
STP -0.08 -0.08 -0.07 -0.05 -0.07 -0.10
DSTBL-1 -0.23 -0.28 -0.27 -0.14 -0.27 -0.27
DSTBL-2 -0.07 -0.10 0.03 -0.07 -0.13 -0.06
DTT-1 0.00 0.06 0.08 0.01 0.04 0.04
DTT-2 -0.17 -0.19 -0.04 -0.10 -0.16 -0.04
DTT-3 0.00 0.12 0.21 0.02 0.01 0.08
DTT-4 -0.12 -0.09 0.01 0.04 -0.08 -0.09
DTT-5 -0.12 -0.20 0.20 0.06 -0.22 -0.14
IP 0.00 -0.12 0.01 -0.05 -0.16 -0.06
RF-1 0.13 0.23 0.46 0.17 0.23 0.34
RF-2 0.04 0.04 0.41 0.18 0.04 0.11
MF -0.13 -0.14 0.30 0.07 -0.20 -0.12
Table 5.30: Autumn (ON) Wind (m/s) Projections at 10 Meters

2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 0.04 0.02 -0.05 0.16 -0.04 -0.03
SA 0.06 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.01 0.02
DT-1 0.06 0.05 0.08 0.08 0.01 0.06
DT-2 0.00 0.02 -0.04 0.08 -0.06 -0.09
MT -0.06 -0.15 -0.18 -0.04 -0.14 -0.17
STP -0.10 -0.19 -0.20 -0.11 -0.18 -0.18
DSTBL-1 -0.13 -0.24 -0.28 -0.08 -0.24 -0.24
DSTBL-2 -0.08 -0.12 -0.16 -0.11 -0.13 -0.16
DTT-1 -0.03 0.02 -0.05 0.03 -0.08 -0.09
DTT-2 0.07 0.13 0.15 0.07 0.06 0.15
DTT-3 -0.01 -0.03 -0.02 0.05 -0.03 -0.03
DTT-4 -0.05 -0.06 -0.07 0.08 -0.09 -0.09
DTT-5 0.06 0.11 0.19 0.13 0.09 0.06
IP -0.13 -0.25 -0.28 -0.19 -0.21 -0.23
RF-1 0.12 0.25 0.23 0.13 0.12 0.14
RF-2 0.06 0.07 0.13 0.08 0.08 0.07
MF 0.01 0.08 0.24 0.06 0.06 0.00
102
Table 5.31: Projected temperature (°C) (Mean, Max. and Min.) ranges for A2 Scenario
Forest Winter Spring Summer Monsoon Autumn

types 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
Tmean 2-3 4-5 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 3-4 6-7 1-2 3-4 5-6
AP Tmax 2-3 3-4 5-6 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 3-4 5-6 2-3 3-4 7-8 1-2 3-4 6-7
Tmin 2-3 4-5 6-7 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 2-3 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6
Tmean 2-3 3-4 6-7 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 3-4 5-6 2-3 4-5 7-8 1-2 3-4 6-7
SA Tmax 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 3-4 5-6 2-3 4-5 7-8 1-2 3-4 6-7
Tmin 2-3 4-5 6-7 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6 2-3 3-4 7-8 1-2 3-4 6-7
Tmean 2-3 4-5 6-7 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6 2-3 3-4 6-7 1-2 3-4 5-6
DT-1 Tmax 1-2 4-5 6-7 1-2 3-4 5-6 0-1 2-3 5-6 2-3 3-4 7-8 1-2 2-3 6-7
Tmin 2-3 5-6 7-8 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6 2-3 3-4 7-8 1-2 3-4 5-6
Tmean 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 3-4 5-6 2-3 3-4 6-7 1-2 2-3 5-6
DT-2 Tmax 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 2-3 5-6 1-2 2-3 4-5
Tmin 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6 2-3 3-4 6-7 2-3 4-5 7-8 1-2 3-4 6-7
Tmean 1-2 3-4 6-7 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5
MT Tmax 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6 0-1 2-3 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 2-3 5-6
Tmin 2-3 4-5 6-7 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 2-3 5-6 1-2 2-3 4-5
Tmean 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6 0-1 1-2 3-4 0-1 1-2 3-4 0-1 1-2 3-4
STP Tmax 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6 0-1 1-2 3-4 0-1 0-1 2-3 0-1 0-1 3-4
Tmin 2-3 4-5 6-7 1-2 4-5 5-6 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5
Tmean 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 2-3 4-5 0-1 1-2 3-4 0-1 1-2 3-4
DSTBL-1 Tmax 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6 0-1 1-2 3-4 <0 0-1 2-3 0-1 0-1 2-3
Tmin 2-3 4-5 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 0-1 1-2 4-5
Tmean 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 2-3 4-5 0-1 1-2 2-3 0-1 0-1 3-4
DSTBL-2 Tmax 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 3-4 4-5 0-1 1-2 3-4 <0 0-1 2-3 <0 <0 2-3
Tmin 2-3 4-5 5-6 1-2 4-5 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 1-2 3-4 0-1 2-3 4-5
Tmean 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5
DTT-1 Tmax 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 0-1 1-2 3-4 0-1 1-2 4-5
Tmin 2-3 4-5 6-7 1-2 4-5 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6 2-3 3-4 6-7 1-2 3-4 5-6
Tmean 2-3 4-5 6-7 1-2 4-5 5-6 1-2 2-3 4-5 0-1 1-2 3-4 1-2 1-2 4-5
DTT-2 Tmax 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 0-1 0-1 2-3 0-1 0-1 3-4
Tmin 2-3 4-5 6-7 2-3 4-5 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 6-7
Tmean 2-3 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 2-3 4-5 0-1 1-2 4-5
DTT-3 Tmax 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 0-1 1-2 3-4 0-1 0-1 3-4
Tmin 2-3 4-5 6-7 1-2 3-4 5-6 2-3 3-4 6-7 2-3 3-4 6-7 1-2 2-3 5-6
Tmean 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 3-4 5-6 2-3 3-4 6-7 1-2 3-4 5-6
DTT-4 Tmax 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 2-3 4-5
Tmin 2-3 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6 2-3 3-4 6-7 2-3 4-5 7-8 2-3 3-4 6-7
Tmean 2-3 4-5 6-7 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 5-6
DTT-5 Tmax 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 1-2 3-4 0-1 1-2 3-4 0-1 1-2 3-4
Tmin 2-3 4-5 6-7 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 2-3 3-4 6-7
Tmean 2-3 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 2-3 4-5 0-1 0-1 2-3 0-1 0-1 3-4
IP Tmax 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 3-4 4-5 0-1 1-2 3-4 <0 0-1 1-2 <0 <0 1-2
Tmin 2-3 4-5 6-7 2-3 4-5 6-7 1-2 2-3 5-6 0-1 1-2 3-4 0-1 1-2 4-5
Tmean 2-3 4-5 6-7 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 2-3 5-6 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 2-3 5-6
RF-1 Tmax 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 0-1 1-2 3-4 0-1 1-2 3-4
Tmin 2-3 4-5 6-7 2-3 4-5 5-6 2-3 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6 2-3 3-4 6-7
Tmean 2-3 4-5 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 5-6
RF-2 Tmax 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 0-1 1-2 3-4 0-1 1-2 3-4
Tmin 2-3 4-5 6-7 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 3-4 6-7
Tmean 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 0-1 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 4-5
MF Tmax 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 1-2 3-4 0-1 1-2 3-4 0-1 1-2 3-4
Tmin 1-2 4-5 6-7 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 3-4 5-6
103
Table 5.32: Projected temperature (°C) (Mean, Max. and Min.) ranges for B2 Scenario

Tmean 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 3-4 4-5
AP Tmax 1-2 3-4 4-5 0-1 1-2 2-3 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 5-6
Tmin 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 1-2 3-4 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 3-4 4-5
Tmean 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 4-5 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5
SA Tmax 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 3-4 3-4 1-2 4-5 6-7 1-2 3-4 5-6
Tmin 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 2-3 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5
Tmean 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 2-3 3-4 0-1 2-3 3-4 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5
DT-1 Tmax 2-3 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 0-1 2-3 3-4 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5
Tmin 1-2 4-5 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 2-3 4-5 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5
Tmean 1-2 3-4 4-5 0-1 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 3-4 4-5 0-1 2-3 4-5
DT-2 Tmax 2-3 3-4 4-5 0-1 2-3 3-4 0-1 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 3-4 0-1 2-3 3-4
Tmin 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 2-3 4-5 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5
Tmean 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 0-1 1-2 2-3 1-2 2-3 3-4 0-1 2-3 3-4
MT Tmax 2-3 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 0-1 1-2 2-3 0-1 2-3 2-3 0-1 2-3 4-5
Tmin 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 0-1 2-3 3-4 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4
Tmean 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 <0 1-2 2-3 0-1 1-2 2-3 0-1 1-2 3-4
STP Tmax 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 <0 0-1 2-3 0-1 0-1 1-2 0-1 1-2 2-3
Tmin 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 0-1 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 3-4 0-1 2-3 3-4
Tmean 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 0-1 1-2 2-3 0-1 1-2 2-3 0-1 1-2 2.98
DSTBL-1 Tmax 1-2 3-4 4-5 0-1 2-3 3-4 <0 1-2 2-3 0-1 0-1 1-2 <0 0-1 2-3
Tmin 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 0-1 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 3-4 0-1 2-3 3-4
Tmean 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 0-1 1-2 2-3 0-1 1-2 1-2 <0 1-2 2.79
DSTBL-2 Tmax 1-2 2-3 3-4 0-1 2-3 3-4 <0 1-2 2-3 0-1 0-1 0-1 <0 <0 1-2
Tmin 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 3-4 4-5 0-1 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 2-3 0-1 2-3 3-4
Tmean 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 0-1 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 3-4 0-1 2-3 3-4
DTT-1 Tmax 2-3 3-4 4-5 0-1 2-3 3-4 0-1 1-2 2-3 0-1 1-2 2-3 0-1 2-3 3-4
Tmin 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5
Tmean 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 3-4 4-5 0-1 2-3 3-4 0-1 1-2 1-2 0-1 2-3 3-4
DTT-2 Tmax 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 0-1 1-2 2-3 0-1 0-1 1-2 <0 0-1 2-3
Tmin 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 1-2 2-3 0-1 3-4 5-6
Tmean 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 1-2 3-4 0-1 1-2 3-4
DTT-3 Tmax 1-2 3-4 4-5 0-1 2-3 3-4 0-1 2-3 3-4 0-1 0-1 1-2 <0 0-1 2-3
Tmin 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 2-3 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5
Tmean 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5
DTT-4 Tmax 1-2 3-4 4-5 0-1 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 3-4 0-1 2-3 3-4
Tmin 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 3-4 4-5 2-3 4-5 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5
Tmean 2-3 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 1-2 3-4 0-1 1-2 2-3 1-2 2-3 4-5
DTT-5 Tmax 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 0-1 1-2 2-3 0-1 0-1 1-2 0-1 1-2 2-3
Tmin 2-3 4-5 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 3-4 5-6
Tmean 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 0-1 1-2 2-3 0-1 0-1 1-2 <0 0-1 2.51
IP Tmax 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 3-4 <0 1-2 2-3 <0 0-1 0-1 <0 -0.25 1-2
Tmin 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 3-4 4-5 0-1 2-3 3-4 0-1 1-2 2-3 0-1 1-2 3-4
Tmean 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 2-3 0-1 2-3 4-5
RF-1 Tmax 1-2 3-4 4-5 0-1 2-3 3-4 0-1 2-3 3-4 0-1 1-2 1-2 0-1 1-2 3-4
Tmin 1-2 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 3-4 5-6
Tmean 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 3-4 0-1 1-2 2-3 1-2 2-3 3-4
RF-2 Tmax 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 0-1 1-2 2-3 0-1 1-2 1-2 0-1 1-2 2-3
Tmin 2-3 3-4 5-6 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 3-4 4-5
Tmean 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 1-2 2-3 1-2 1-2 2-3 1-2 2-3 3-4
MF Tmax 1-2 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 1-2 2-3 0-1 1-2 1-2 0-1 1-2 2-3
Tmin 2-3 3-4 4-5 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 3-4 1-2 2-3 2-3 1-2 3-4 4-5
104
Table 5.33: Projected temperature change (Maximum and Minimum) for A2 Scenario by
2050s.
Projected
Temperature Forest Types
Seasons
Range Maximum Temperature Minimum Temperature
Winter DT-1 AP, SA, DT-1, MT, STP, DSTBL-1,
DSTBL-2, DTT-1, DTT-2, DTT-3,
DTT-5, IP, RF-1, RF-2, MF
Spring STP, DSTBL-2, DTT-1, DTT-2, IP,
4-5 °C RF-1
Summer
Monsoon SA DT-2, DTT-4
Autumn
Winter AP, SA, DT-2, MT, STP, DSTBL-1, DT-2, DTT-4,
DSTBL-2, DTT-1, DTT-2, DTT-3,
DTT-4, DTT-5, IP, RF-1, RF-2, MF
Spring SA, DT-2, MT, STP, DSTBL-1, AP, SA, DT-1, DT-2, MT, DSTBL-1,
DSTBL-2, DTT-1, DTT-2, DTT-3, DTT-3, DTT-4, DTT-5, RF-2, MF
3-4 °C DTT-4, IP, RF-1, RF-2
Summer AP, SA, DT-2, MT, DTT-4 SA, DT-1, DT-2, MT, DSTBL-2, DTT-
1, DTT-2, DTT-3, DTT-4, RF-1, RF-2
Monsoon AP, DT-1, DTT-4 SA, DT-1, DTT-1, DTT-3, RF-1
Autumn AP, SA AP, SA, DT-1, DT-2, DTT-1, DTT-4,
DTT-5, RF-1, RF-2, MF
Winter
Spring AP, DTT-5, MF AP, STP, DSTBL-1, DTT-5, IP, MF
Summer DT-1, MT, DTT-1, DTT-2, DTT-3,
2-3 °C RF-1, RF-2
Monsoon DT-2, MT, AP, MT, STP. DSTBL-1, DTT-2, DTT-
5, RF-2, MF
Autumn DT-1, DT-2, MT, DTT-4 MT, STP, DSTBL-2, DTT-2, DTT-3
Winter
Spring
Summer STP. DSTBL-1, DTT-2, DTT-5, IP,
1-2 °C MF
Monsoon DTT-1, DTT-3, DTT-5, RF-1, RF-2, DSTBL-2, IP
MF
Autumn DTT-1, DTT-5, RF-1, RF-2, MF DSTBL-1, IP
Winter
Spring
0-1 °C Summer
Monsoon STP, DSTBL-1, DSTBL-2, DTT-2,
IP
Autumn STP, DSTBL-1, DTT-2, DTT-3,
Winter
Spring
< 0 °C Summer
Monsoon
Autumn DSTBL-2, IP
105
Table 5.34: Projected temperature change (Maximum and Minimum) for A2 Scenario by
2080s.
Projected Forest Types
Temperature Seasons
Range Maximum Temperature Minimum Temperature
Winter DT-1
Spring
7-8 °C Summer
Monsoon AP, SA, DT-1 SA, DT-1, DT-2, DTT-4
Autumn
Winter DT-1
AP, SA, MT, STP, DSTBL-2, DTT-1, 2,3 &
Spring
5, IP, RF-1 & 2, MF
6-7 °C
Summer DTT-2, IP
Monsoon DTT-1, 3
Autumn SA, DT-2, DTT-2, DTT-4, DTT-5, RF-1, RF-
AP, SA, DT-1
2, DT-2, DTT-3, DTT-4
Winter AP, SA, DT-2, MT, STP,
DSTBL-1, DTT-1 to 5, RF-1, DT-2. DSTBL-1, DTT-4
RF-2
AP, SA, DT-1, 2, MT, STP, DSTBL-1,2,
DT-1, MT, STP, DSTBL-1
5-6 °C Spring DTT-1, 3, 4, 5, RF-1, RF-2
SA, DT-1, MT, DSTBL-2, DTT-1, DTT-2, IP,
AP, SA, DT-1, DT-2, DTT-4
Summer RF-1
Monsoon DT-2, DTT-4 AP, MT, RF-1
Autumn MT AP, DT-1, DTT-1,3, MF
Winter DSTBL-2, IP, MF
DTT-1, 2, 3, 4, 5, IP, RF-1, 2,
MF
Spring MF
4-5 °C MT, DTT-1, 2, 3, RF-1 AP, STP, DSTBL-1, DTT-5, RF-2
Summer
Monsoon MT STP, DSTBL-1, DTT-5, RF-2, MF
Autumn DT-2, DTT-1, 4, STP, DSTBL-1, DSTBL-2, IP
Winter
Spring AP
STP, DSTBL-1, DSTBL-2,
MF
Summer DTT-5, IP, RF-2, MF
Monsoon DTT-1, DTT-3, DTT-5, RF-1,
DSTBL-2, DTT-2, IP
RF-2, MF
Autumn STP, DTT-2, DTT-3, DTT-5,
3-4 °C RF-1, RF-2, MF
Winter
Spring
2-3 °C Summer
Monsoon STP, DSTBL-1, DSTBL-2,
DTT-2
Autumn DSTBL-1, DSTBL-2
Winter
1-2 °C Spring
Summer
Monsoon IP
Autumn IP
106
Table 5.35: Projected precipitation (%) ranges for A2 Scenario
Forest Annual Winter Spring Summer Monsoon Autumn

Types 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 20 - 40 20 - 40 0 - 20 0 - 20 20 - 40 20 - 40 -20 - 0 -20 - 0 -40 - -20 -20 - 0 -60 - -40 -20 - 0 0 - 20 -20 - 0
SA 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 20 - 40 20 - 40 -20 - 0 0 - 20 0 - 20 20 - 40 0 - 20 0 - 20 -40 - -20 -20 - 0 -40 - -20 -20 - 0 0 - 20 -20 - 0
DT-1 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 20 - 40 20 - 40 0 - 20 20 - 40 20 - 40 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 -20 - 0 -20 - 0 -40 - -20 -20 - 0 0 - 20 0 - 20
DT-2 40 - 60 20 - 40 20 - 40 20 - 40 0 - 20 -20 - 0 20 - 40 -20 - 0 -20 - 0 40 - 60 60 - 80 20 - 40 40 - 60 40 - 60 80 - 100 60 - 80 100 - 150 60 - 80
MT 0 - 20 20 - 40 20 - 40 20 - 40 20 - 40 20 - 40 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 20 - 40 20 - 40 20 - 40 0 - 20 0 - 20 20 - 40 -20 - 0 20 - 40 0 - 20
STP 20 - 40 20 - 40 40 - 60 40 - 60 20 - 40 20 - 40 20 - 40 20 - 40 20 - 40 20 - 40 60 - 80 60 - 80 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 0 - 20 40 - 60 40 - 60
DSTBL-1 20 - 40 40 - 60 20 - 40 80 - 100 0 - 20 0 - 20 -20 - 0 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 80 - 100 80 - 100 20 - 40 20 - 40 20 - 40 -20 - 0 40 - 60 40 - 60
DSTBL-2 20 - 40 40 - 60 40 - 60 80 - 100 20 - 40 20 - 40 0 - 20 20 - 40 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 60 - 80 20 - 40 20 - 40 40 - 60 20 - 40 100 - 150 80 - 100
DTT-1 20 - 40 40 - 60 40 - 60 40 - 60 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 -20 - 0 -20 - 0 20 - 40 60 - 80 40 - 60 20 - 40 40 - 60 40 - 60 60 - 80 100 - 150 80 - 100
DTT-2 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 100 - 150 20 - 40 20 - 40 40 - 60 20 - 40 60 - 80 80 - 100 200 - 300 150 - 200 20 - 40 60 - 80 60 - 80 40 - 60 150 - 200 100 - 150
DTT-3 40 - 60 60 - 80 60 - 80 100 - 150 -20 - 0 0 - 20 0 - 20 20 - 40 -20 - 0 40 - 60 200 - 300 100 - 150 20 - 40 40 - 60 40 - 60 150 - 200 500 - 600 300 - 400
DTT-4 60 - 80 80 - 100 60 - 80 100 - 150 40 - 60 40 - 60 0 - 20 -20 - 0 -20 - 0 100 - 150 40 - 60 40 - 60 20 - 40 60 - 80 60 - 80 200 - 300 400 - 500 200 - 300
DTT-5 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 -40 - (-20) -40 - -20 -20 - 0 -20 - 0 0 - 20 80 - 100 -40 - -20 700 - 800 100 - 150 40 - 60 40 - 60 60 - 80 150 - 200 100 - 150 300 - 400
IP 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 60 - 80 20 - 40 -20 - 0 0 - 20 40 - 60 60 - 80 40 - 60 100 - 150 100 - 150 20 - 40 20 - 40 40 - 60 40 - 60 100 - 150 80 - 100
RF-1 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 100 - 150 -20 - 0 -40-(-20) 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 40 - 60 150 - 200 40 - 60 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 40 - 60 100 - 150 100 - 150
RF-2 60 - 80 40 - 60 100 - 150 80 - 100 -20 - 0 20 - 40 -20 - 0 -20 - 0 0 - 20 0 - 20 150 - 200 20 - 40 60 - 80 40 - 60 80 - 100 100 - 150 100 - 150 300 - 400
MF 100 - 150 60 - 80 80 - 100 0 - 20 -40-(-20) 60 - 80 0 - 20 0 - 20 -40-(-20) -20 - 0 80 - 100 40 - 60 100 - 150 40 - 60 40 - 60 150 - 200 100 - 150 300 - 400
107
Table 5.36: Projected precipitation (%) ranges for B2 Scenario
Forest Annual Winter Spring Summer Monsoon Autumn

Types 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 -20 - 0 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 20 - 40 0 - 20 -20 - 0 20 - 40 20 - 40 -20 - 0 -40 - -20 -20 - 0 -20 - 0 -20 - 0
SA 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 -20 - 0 0 - 20 20 - 40 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 20 - 40 60 - 80 0 - 20 -40 - -20 -20 - 0 -20 - 0 -20 - 0
DT-1 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 -20 - 0 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 20 - 40 20 - 40 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 20 - 40 -20 - 0 -40 - -20 0 - 20 0 - 20 -20 - 0
DT-2 20 - 40 20 - 40 20 - 40 -40 - -20 -40 - -20 0 - 20 20 - 40 20 - 40 0 - 20 80 - 100 40 - 60 20 - 40 80 - 100 100 - 150 100 - 150 100 - 150 20 - 40 0 - 20
MT 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 -20 - 0 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 20 - 40 20 - 40 20 - 40 20 - 40 20 - 40 20 - 40 0 - 20 20 - 40 0 - 20 0 - 20 -20 - 0
STP 20 - 40 20 - 40 40 - 60 -20 - 0 -20 - 0 20 - 40 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 40 - 60 40 - 60 40 - 60 20 - 40 20 - 40 40 - 60 0 - 20 40 - 60 0 - 20
DSTBL-1 20 - 40 20 - 40 20 - 40 -40 - -20 -40 - -20 0 - 20 0 - 20 0 - 20 20 - 40 80 - 100 60 - 80 60 - 80 20 - 40 20 - 40 20 - 40 -20 - 0 40 - 60 -20 - 0
DSTBL-2 20 - 40 40 - 60 40 - 60 -20 - 0 -40 - -20 20 - 40 20 - 40 0 - 20 20 - 40 80 - 100 80 - 100 60 - 80 20 - 40 40 - 60 40 - 60 0 - 20 80 - 100 0 - 20
DTT-1 20 - 40 40 - 60 20 - 40 -60-(-40) -40 - -20 -20 - 0 0 - 20 0 - 20 -20 - 0 60 - 80 60 - 80 40 - 60 20 - 40 40 - 60 40 - 60 20 - 40 40 - 60 20 - 40
DTT-2 60 - 80 60 - 80 60 - 80 -40 - -20 -60 - -40 60 - 80 40 - 60 0 - 20 60 - 80 200 - 300 150 - 200 200 - 300 40 - 60 40 - 60 60 - 80 20 - 40 100 - 150 60 - 80
DTT-3 20 - 40 60 - 80 40 - 60 -40 - -20 -60 - -40 -20 - 0 -20 - 0 0 - 20 -20 - 0 300 - 400 200 - 300 200 - 300 20 - 40 60 - 80 40 - 60 150 - 200 200 - 300 100 - 150
DTT-4 20 - 40 80 - 100 60 - 80 -20 - 0 -20 - 0 20 - 40 40 - 60 -20 - 0 -20 - 0 60 - 80 40 - 60 40 - 60 20 - 40 100 - 150 80 - 100 80 - 100 100 - 150 100 - 150
DTT-5 60 - 80 100 - 150 100 - 150 60 - 80 -60 - -40 100-150 -40-(-20) -20 - 0 -20 - 0 700 - 800 300 - 400 600 - 700 60 - 80 100 - 150 100 - 150 0 - 20 150 - 200 60 - 80
IP 40 - 60 40 - 60 40 - 60 0 - 20 -60-(-40) 40 - 60 80-100 40 - 60 60 - 80 100 - 150 100 - 150 150 - 200 20 - 40 20 - 40 40 - 60 20 - 40 60 - 80 40 - 60
RF-1 40 - 60 80 - 100 60 - 80 -60-(-40) -80-(-60) -40-(-20) -20 - 0 -20 - 0 -20 - 0 150 - 200 100 - 150 100 - 150 40 - 60 60 - 80 40 - 60 80 - 100 300 - 400 100 - 150
RF-2 80 - 100 100 - 150 100 - 150 80 - 100 -80 - -60 0 - 20 -40-(-20) -20 - 0 -20 - 0 100 - 150 40 - 60 80 - 100 80 - 100 100 - 150 100 - 150 0 - 20 150 - 200 60 - 80
MF 80 - 100 100 - 150 100 - 150 100 - 150 -20 - 0 100-150 -40-(-20) -40-(-20) 20 - 40 40 - 60 -20 - 0 40 - 60 80 - 100 100 - 150 100 - 150 20 - 40 100 - 150 40 - 60
108
Table 5.37: Projected wind speed (m/s) ranges for A2 Scenario

types
2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 0.1-0.15 0.05-0.1 0.15-0.2 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 0-0.05 0.05-0.1 0.15-0.2 0-0.05 0-0.05 <0
SA 0-0.05 0-0.05 <0 <0 <0 <0 0-0.05 <0 <0 0-0.05 0.05-0.1 0.1-0.15 0.05-0.1 0-0.05 0.05-0.1
DT-1 0.05-0.1 0.05-0.1 0.05-0.1 <0 <0 0.05-0.1 <0 <0 <0 <0 0-0.05 0-0.05 0.05-0.1 0-0.05 0.05-0.1
DT-2 <0 <0 <0 <0 0-0.05 0.05-0.1 0.05-0.1 <0 <0 <0 0-0.05 0.05-0.1 0-0.05 0-0.05 <0
MT <0 0-0.05 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0
STP <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0
DSTBL-1 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0
DSTBL-2 <0 <0 <0 <0 0-0.05 <0 0-0.05 0-0.05 0.05-0.1 <0 <0 0-0.05 <0 <0 <0
DTT-1 <0 <0 <0 0-0.05 0-0.05 0-0.05 0.05-0.1 <0 <0 0-0.05 0.05-0.1 0.05-0.1 <0 0-0.05 <0
DTT-2 0.05-0.1 0.05-0.1 0-0.05 <0 0.15-0.2 0.05-0.1 <0 <0 0-0.05 <0 <0 <0 0.05-0.1 0.1-0.15 0.1-0.15
DTT-3 <0 <0 <0 0-0.05 0-0.05 0-0.05 0-0.05 <0 <0 0-0.05 0.1-0.15 0.2-0.25 <0 <0 <0
DTT-4 <0 <0 <0 0.05-0.1 0.05-0.1 0.1-0.15 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 0-0.05 <0 <0 <0
DTT-5 0-0.05 0.15-0.2 0.05-0.1 0-0.05 0.4-0.45 0.3-0.35 0.05-0.1 0.3-0.35 0.6-0.65 <0 <0 0.15-0.2 0.05-0.1 0.1-0.15 0.15-0.2
IP <0 <0 <0 <0 0-0.05 <0 <0 0-0.05 0-0.05 0-0.05 <0 0-0.05 <0 <0 <0
RF-1 <0 0-0.05 <0 0-0.05 0.05-0.1 0.1-0.15 <0 0.1-0.15 0.25-0.3 0.1-0.15 0.2-0.25 0.45-0.5 0.1-0.15 0.2-0.25 0.2-0.25
RF-2 0-0.05 0.05-0.1 0-0.05 <0 0.15-0.2 0.1-0.15 0.05-0.1 0.25-0.3 0.5-0.55 0-0.05 0-0.05 0.4-0.45 0.05-0.1 0.05-0.1 0.1-0.15
MF 0-0.05 0.1-0.15 0.05-0.1 0-0.05 0.4-0.45 0.35-0.4 0.1-0.15 0.2-0.25 0.45-0.5 <0 <0 0.25-0.3 0-0.05 0.05-0.1 0.2-0.25
109
Table 5.38: Projected wind speed (m/s) ranges for B2 Scenario

AP <0 <0 0 - 0.05 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 0 - 0.05 0.05 - 0.1 0.05 - 0.1 0.15 - 0.2 0.15 - 0.2 <0 <0
SA <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 0 - 0.05 0.05 - 0.1 0.05 - 0.1 0 - 0.05 0 - 0.05
DT-1 <0 <0 0 - 0.05 0 - 0.05 0 - 0.05 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 0.05 - 0.1 0 - 0.05 0.05 - 0.1
DT-2 0 - 0.05 <0 <0 0.05 - 0.1 0.05 - 0.1 0 - 0.05 <0 <0 <0 0 - 0.05 0 - 0.05 <0 0.05 - 0.1 <0 <0
MT 0 - 0.05 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0
STP <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0
DSTBL-1 0 - 0.05 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0
DSTBL-2 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 0 - 0.05 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0
DTT-1 <0 <0 <0 0.05 - 0.1 0 - 0.05 <0 <0 <0 0 - 0.05 0 - 0.05 0 - 0.05 0 - 0.05 0 - 0.05 <0 <0
DTT-2 0 - 0.05 <0 0 - 0.05 0 - 0.05 0.05 - 0.1 0 - 0.05 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 0.05 - 0.1 0.05 - 0.1 0.1 - 0.15
DTT-3 0 - 0.05 <0 <0 0.1 - 0.15 0 - 0.05 0 - 0.05 <0 <0 <0 0 - 0.05 0 - 0.05 0.05 - 0.1 0 - 0.05 <0 <0
DTT-4 0 - 0.05 <0 <0 0.1 - 0.15 0.05 - 0.1 0.05 - 0.1 0 - 0.05 <0 <0 0 - 0.05 <0 <0 0.05 - 0.1 <0 <0
DTT-5 0.05 - 0.1 0 - 0.05 0.05 - 0.1 0 - 0.05 0.1 - 0.15 0.1 - 0.15 0 - 0.05 0.25 - 0.3 0.25 - 0.3 0.05 - 0.1 <0 <0 0.1 - 0.15 0.05 - 0.1 0.05 - 0.1
IP <0 <0 <0 0 - 0.05 0 - 0.05 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0 <0
RF-1 0 - 0.05 <0 <0 0.1 - 0.15 0.05 - 0.1 0.05 - 0.1 <0 0.05 - 0.1 0.1 - 0.15 0.15 - 0.2 0.2 - 0.25 0.3 - 0.35 0.1 - 0.15 0.1 - 0.15 0.1 - 0.15
RF-2 0 - 0.05 0 - 0.05 0 - 0.05 <0 0 - 0.05 0 - 0.05 0 - 0.05 0.3 - 0.35 0.15 - 0.2 0.15 - 0.2 0 - 0.05 0.1 - 0.15 0.05 - 0.1 0.05 - 0.1 0.05 - 0.1
MF 0.05 - 0.1 0 - 0.05 0 - 0.05 0.05 - 0.1 0.15 - 0.2 0.15 - 0.2 <0 0.05 - 0.1 0.15 - 0.2 0.05 - 0.1 <0 <0 0.05 - 0.1 0.05 - 0.1 0 - 0.05
110
8.0
6.0
Temperature (°C)
4.0
2.0
0.0
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
RF-1
RF-2
MF
AP
SA
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
MT
STP
IP
A2 - Scenario 2020s A2 - Scenario 2050s A2 - Scenario 2080s
B2 - Scenario 2020s B2 - Scenario 2050s B2 - Scenario 2080s
Fig. 5.1: Annual Mean Temperature projections for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different
7.0
6.0
Temperature (°C)
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
RF-1
RF-2
MF
AP
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
SA
MT
STP
IP

Fig. 5.2: Mean Temperature projections in winter for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different
111
6.0
5.0
Temperature (°C)
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
RF-1
RF-2
MF
AP
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
SA
MT
STP
IP
Fig. 5.3: Mean Temperature projections in spring for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different
5
Tem perature (°C)
-1
D STB L-1
D STB L-2
R F-1
R F-2
MF
AP
DT-1
DT-2
D TT-1
D TT-2
D TT-3
D TT-4
D TT-5
SA
MT
STP
IP

Fig. 5.4: Mean Temperature projections in summer for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different
112
8.0
7.0
Temperature Change (C)
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
RF-1
RF-2
MF
AP
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
SA
MT
STP
IP
Fig. 5.5: Mean Temperature projections in monsoon for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different
7.0
6.0
5.0
Tem perature (°C)
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
RF-1
RF-2
MF
AP
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
SA
MT
STP
IP

Fig. 5.6: Mean Temperature projections in autumn for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different
113
7.0
6.0
Temperature (°C)
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
SA
DT-1
DT-2
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
RF-1
RF-2
MT
MF
AP
STP
IP
Fig. 5.7: Annual Maximum Temperature projections for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different
7.0
6.0
Temperature (°C)
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
RF-1
RF-2
MF
AP
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
SA
MT
STP
IP

Fig. 5.8: Maximum Temperature projections in winter for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different
114
8.0
Temperature (°C) 6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
RF-1
RF-2
MF
AP
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
SA
MT
STP
IP
Fig. 5.9: Maximum Temperature projections in spring for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different
8.0
6.0
Temperature (°C)
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
RF-1
RF-2
MF
AP
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
SA
MT
STP
IP

Fig. 5.10: Maximum Temperature projections in summer for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different
115
10.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
RF-1
RF-2
MF
AP
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
SA
MT
STP
IP
Fig. 5.11: Maximum Temperature projections in monsoon for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different
8.0
Temperature (°C)
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
D STB L-1
D STB L-2
R F-1
R F-2
MF
AP
D T-1
D T-2
D TT-1
D TT-2
D TT-3
D TT-4
D TT-5
SA
MT
STP
IP

Fig. 5.12: Maximum Temperature projections in autumn for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different
116
8.0
Temperature (°C)
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
RF-1
RF-2
MF
AP
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
SA
MT
STP
IP
Fig. 5.13: Annual Minimum Temperature projections for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different
8.0
Temperature (°C)
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
RF-1
RF-2
MF
AP
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
SA
MT
IP
STP

Fig. 5.14: Minimum Temperature projections in winter for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different
117
8.0
Temperature (°C)
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
RF-1
RF-2
MF
AP
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
SA
MT
STP
IP
Fig. 5.15: Minimum Temperature projections in spring for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different
8.0
Tem perature (°C)
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
D STB L-1
D STB L-2
R F-1
R F-2
MF
AP
D T-1
D T-2
D TT-1
D TT-2
D TT-3
D TT-4
D TT-5
SA
MT
STP
IP

Fig. 5.16: Minimum Temperature projections in summer for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different
118
10.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
RF-1
RF-2
MF
AP
SA
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
MT
STP
IP
Fig. 5.17: Minimum Temperature projections in monsoon for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different
8.0
Temperature (°C)
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
RF-1
RF-2
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
AP
STP
IP
SA
MF
MT

Fig. 5.18: Minimum Temperature projections in autumn for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different
119
140
120
100
Precipitation (%)
80
60
40
20
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
RF-1
RF-2
MF
AP
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
SA
MT
STP
IP
Fig. 5.19: Annual Precipitation projections for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest regions of
Pakistan
200
150
Precip itatio n (%)
100
50
-50
-100
D STB L-1
D STB L-2
R F-1
R F-2
MF
AP
D T-1
D T-2
D TT-1
D TT-2
D TT-3
D TT-4
D TT-5
SA
MT
STP
IP

Fig. 5.20: Precipitation projections in winter for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest regions of
Pakistan
120
120
Precipitation (%) 90
60
30
-30
-60
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
RF-1
RF-2
MF
AP
SA
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
MT
STP
IP
Fig. 5.21: Precipitation projections in spring for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest regions of
Pakistan
900
800
700
Precipitation (%)
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
RF-1
RF-2
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
AP
STP
IP
SA
MF
MT

Fig. 5.22: Precipitation projections in summer for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest regions of
Pakistan
121
200
150
Precipitatio n (%)
100
50
-50
-100
D STB L-1
D STB L-2
R F-1
R F-2
MF
AP
D T-1
D T-2
D TT-1
D TT-2
D TT-3
D TT-4
D TT-5
SA
MT
STP
IP
Fig. 5.23: Precipitation projections in monsoon for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest regions
of Pakistan
600
500
Precipitation (%)
400
300
200
100
-100
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
RF-1
RF-2
MF
AP
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
SA
MT
STP
IP

Fig. 5.24: Precipitation projections in autumn for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest regions of
Pakistan
122
0.40
Wind Speed (m/s)
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
SA
DT-1
DT-2
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
RF-1
RF-2
MT
MF
AP
STP
IP
Fig. 5.25: Annual Wind speed projections for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest regions of
Pakistan
0.20
0.10
Wind Speed (m/s)
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
RF-1
RF-2
MF
AP
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
SA
MT
STP
IP

Fig. 5.26: Wind speed projections in winter for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest regions of
Pakistan
123
0.50
0.40
Wind Speed (m/s)
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
RF-1
RF-2
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
MF
AP
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
SA
MT
STP
IP
Fig. 5.27: Wind speed projections in spring for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest regions of
Pakistan
0.80
0.60
Wind Speed (m /s)
0.40
0.20
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
RF-1
RF-2
MF
AP
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
SA
MT
STP
IP

Fig. 5.28: Wind speed projections in summer for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest regions of
Pakistan
124
0.60
Wind Speed (m/s)
0.40
0.20
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
RF-1
RF-2
MF
AP
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
SA
MT
STP
IP
Fig. 5.29: Wind speed projections in monsoon for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest regions of
Pakistan
0.40
Wind Speed (m/s)
0.20
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
DSTBL-1
DSTBL-2
RF-1
RF-2
MF
AP
DT-1
DT-2
DTT-1
DTT-2
DTT-3
DTT-4
DTT-5
SA
MT
STP
IP

Fig. 5.30: Wind speed projections in autumn for A2 & B2 Scenarios in different forest regions of
Pakistan
------------------------------------------- x x x x x x x --------------------------------------------
125
Chapter 6
Climate Change and the Forest Indicators
6.1 Introduction
Climate change is the most important multidimensional global environmental issue of today.
The projected climate changes will likely have adverse effects on forest ecosystems,
biodiversity, biomass production and ultimately the livelihoods of forest dependent
communities and economies. Temperature and precipitation, two of the climatic factors
bound to change with increased greenhouse gas concentrations, are primary determinants of
global vegetation patterns with significant impacts on forest ecology (including biodiversity),
plant distribution and productivity, and health (Spurr and Barnes, 1980; Smith and Tirpak,
1989; Krischbaum, et al., 1996). Increase in temperature will not necessarily have simple
linear impact on growth of trees species growing in different habitats (Carter, 1996). Local,
regional and global changes in temperature and precipitation can influence the occurrence,
timing, frequency, duration, extent and intensity of climatic disturbances (Baker, 1995;
Turner, et al., 1998). Disturbances, both human-induced and natural, will shape forest
systems by influencing their composition, structure and functional processes.
The multiple linkages between causes and impacts of climate change are, in many cases, not
completely understood. Indicators can help to present and explore these complex
relationships. Besides, indicators are assessment tools for measuring actual trends in climate
change and their impacts on natural ecosystems and socio-economic sectors. Forest
managers/policy makers need indicators to monitor progress towards achieving targets of
warming mitigation and evaluating the effectiveness of adaptation and mitigation approaches
aimed at reducing greenhouse gases emissions. Furthermore, these indicators could provide
early warning signals to forest managers. Apart from short term, indicators are required for
longer time periods, up to 2050 or 2100, for monitoring possible impacts of climate change
in order to develop additional polices or societal changes to achieve sustainable development,
in general. The selected indicators, therefore, should be applicable in integrated assessment
models to evaluate the link between observed and possible future changes in climate;
changes in natural ecosystems, development and changes in society and economy.
126
This part of the study projects the potential impacts of future climate changes on different
forest types of Pakistan in terms of the forest indicators developed in this regard. There are
several categories of climate change and impact indicators. Impact indicators selected for this
study are:
• Tree/Timber Line Shifting in Northern Mountainous Region
• Change in Forest area
• Vegetation Composition
• Forest Out-Turn (Productivity)
• Growing Seasons and Tree Phenology
• Insect / Pests’ Occurrence
The indicators were selected based on past data availability and their relevance to forest
managers, spatial representation and transparency (can be understood by forest managers,
policy makers and scientists).
6.1.1 Tree/Timber Line Shift

The highest boundary of forest is known as the tree/timber line, usually not a distinct line.
Commonly there are both immature trees and old dwarf trees scattered above a very ragged
line. This important boundary is observed in all parts of the world and it also exhibits
common features (Tranquillini, 1979; Beneke and Davis, 1980; Alden, et al., 1993;
Holtmeier, 2000). Currently, there is a focused interest in knowing the rate at which the tree
line may advance in response to global warming and consequently to climate changes. The
reason for the renewed interest in tree lines is clear; an advancing tree line, or a denser forest
below the tree line, would have important implications for the global carbon cycle
(increasing the terrestrial carbon sink) and for biodiversity of the alpine biome.
The first order effects of an increase in temperature could be the moving up of tree/timber
line, disappearance of alpine grasslands in those areas where mountain tops are just above the
tree line and changes in plant composition and cover. Present climate change projections
indicate that there would likely be considerable changes in cover and location of the different
forest types. The temporal and spatial impacts due to climate change will vary with forest
type. The potential changes in tree line for different coniferous and adjacent Dry Sub-
Tropical Broad Leaf forest in the northern Pakistan, under the likely global climate change
with IPCC’s SRES A2 and B2 scenarios (IPCC, 2007). These are presented in Table 6.1 &
127
6.2. This tree line shift is estimated on the basis of temperature lapse rate of 7°C km-1 as
described by Grace, et al. (2002) over a baseline time period of 1961-1990.
Under extreme A2-scenario, the highest projected tree line shift is 874.29 m northward of
Sub-Alpine into Alpine pasture. On an average the tree line advancement would likely range
between 8.76 m year-1 and 14.67 m year-1. The actual gain in area by SA would be the
highest in 2020s. The rate of area gain decreases due to greater expansion of Dry Temperate
into SA. The highest net gain in area due to upward shifting of tree line is projected for DT,
ranging approximately from 15.45 to 20.69%, followed by the Moist Temperate (Table 6.1).
The soaring of upper limit of Sub-Tropical Pine forest is projected likely between 160 m and
630 m over time slices 2020s to 2080s. The results project a considerable conversion of STP,
north and north western region of Rawalpindi Forest Circle and Azad Jammu and Kashmir
adjacent to Rawalpindi, Jhelum and Gujrat, to DSTBL forest. Likewise, DSTBL forest in
west and northwest, (Kohat, Dera Ismail Khan), will extend into western DT (Ziarat, Zhob
and Waziristan). Similarly, desert type vegetation in Sibbi will expand upto western DT
(Quetta). The chilgoza pine in Zhob will recede to DSTBL from Kohat and in D.I. Khan. The
projected climate scenario (increased temperature and less rainfall) will, however, favour
Olea species in Zhob and Bannu and Waziristan. Apart from temperature and precipitation,
decreasing wind speed during spring and summer in SA, DT, MT, STP and DSTBL likely
helps in establishing these forests at higher altitudes, vis-à-vis having better growth.
Table 6.1: Projected Tree/timber line under A2-scenario
Forest type Projected Increase in Elevation (m)

2020s 2050s 2080s
SA 262.86 (+5.43) 528.57 (+0.81) 874.29 (+1.63)
DT 248.57 (+20.69) 524.29 (+17.71) 860.0 (+15.45)
MT 197.14 (+18.12) 431.43 (+14.90) 727.14 (+13.36)
STP 161.43 (+8.85) 367.14 (+6.61) 630.00 (+4.31)
DSTBL 147.14 (+9.71) 342.86 (+7.08) 602.86 (+4.50)
• SA= Sub-Alpine; DT= Dry Temperate; MT= Moist Temperate;

STP= Sub-Tropical Pine, DSTBL= Dry Sub-Tropical Broad Leaf;
• Values in parentheses are net percent gain or loss of area
128
Under the moderate B2-scenario, the overall projected tree line shift is lesser as compared to
A2-scenario. The highest potential projected tree line shift is 664.29 m towards north (Table
2). The mean tree line advancement is projected likely between 6.90 m and 11.07 m year-1
over the time span from 2020s to 2080s. In 2020s, the net area under SA will reduce because
of greater increase in temperature and precipitation in DT (1.48°C, 11.4% PPT) as compared
to SA (1.45, 4.3% PPT) and subsequently greater expansion of DT into SA. The area under
SA, however, will increase by 1.21 to1.51% between 2050s and 2080s. The highest net gain
in area due to advancement of tree line is projected for MT (22.31 to 17.69%) followed by
the DT and STP (chir pine). These projections show greater increase in DSTBL adjacent to
STP during 2050s to 2080s as compared to STP, thus indicating a greater pressure of DSTBL
into chir pine zone. The projected temperature increase, in 2080s, indicates decreasing
coniferous forests, especially STP and MT, in general, despite upward movement of tree line.
This trend may be attributed to increasing DSTBL in north and west and south west of the
country.
Table 6.2: Projected Tree/timer line under B2-scenario
Forest type Projected Increase in Elevation (m)

2020s 2050s 2080s
SA 207.14 (-2.07) 472.86 (+1.21) 664.29 (+1.51)
DT 211.43 (+18.24) 467.14 (+18.35) 654.29 (+17.69)
MT 172.86 (+22.31) 381.43 (+16.85) 538.57 (+13.79)
STP 134.29 (+18.09) 317.14 (+10.36) 464.29 (+3.38)
DSTBL 110.00 284.29 448.57
• SA= Sub-Alpine; DT= Dry Temperate; MT= Moist Temperate;

STP= Sub-Tropical Pine, DSTBL= Dry Sub-Tropical Broad Leaf;
• Values in parentheses are net percent gain
The present projections of northward shift of the tree line and associated species are in
corroborations with findings previously reported by Siddiqui, et al. (1999) and Ravindranath,
et al. (2006). The conifer forests exhibit a continuous upward trend with increasing
temperature and precipitation over time slices of 2020s and 2080s. Apart from upward
movement, plant species in trans-migration areas will become denser and have a closer
canopy in time lapse of 2080s if not disturbed by anthropogenic activities. Such predictions
129
have been reported earlier globally. For instance, Smith and Tirpak (1989) showed large
scale northward shift of species ranges in response to warming. Similarly, a tree line shift of
140-700 m, during 21st century, with rising of 1-5°C, is projected (Birks, 1989). The present
projection of tree line advancement of 874.29 m is slightly higher as compared to global
projections. This discrepancy, however, may be due to greater increase in temperature in the
AP (1.2-5.48°C) and SA (1.45-6.12°C) of Pakistan as compared to global anticipations (1-
5°C).
6.1.2 Change in Forest Area

Mathematical computer models examining forest responses to climate change range from
simple linear regression models (Pan and Raynal, 1995) to more complex representations of
biological systems. The models may show general increases in the productivity and areal
extent of an ecosystem without recognizing that individual species might be either dying out
or thriving over all or part of their ranges. There was lack of data for running model based
study, therefore, for the present study, for predicting response of different forest types to
projected climate changes, a simple empirical-statistical model based on present day
correlation between climate factors (mean temperature and precipitation), and forest type was
developed. A likely change in area under different forest types was calculated for IPCC A2-
scenario and B2-scenario. Simple statistical model used, however, has limitations compared
to process based models. These projections, therefore, in vegetation types may be considered
as a direction of change rather than precise estimates.
Under extreme A2-scenario, total forest area in Pakistan is projected to increase by 1,004,370
ha (23.47%) in 2080s as compared to baseline area (4,279,940 ha) and subsequently will
cause great changes in boundaries of different forest types. The empirical estimates indicate
3.28-9.96% decrease in coniferous forest area over a time period of 2020s-2080s as
compared to baseline area of 1881.5±39.13 thousand ha. Apart from coniferous forests, area
under Riverine forests will decrease by 10.58% in 2020s but will increase again over a time
period of 2050s-80s (Table 6.3). Similarly, the mangrove forests will decrease by 0.17%, and
2.09% over a time period of 2020s-50s. Contrarily, area under scrub forests and forest
plantations will increase. The scrubs will be 1.45 times greater in 2080s as compared to
baseline area (1546.8±71.24 000 ha). The forest plantations will soar almost 12 times in
130
2080s as compared to baseline area (208.13±23.54 000 ha). The highest increase will be in
scrub forests (694.9 ha) followed by forest plantations (356.42 ha), Riverine forest (92.97 ha)
and mangroves (71.12 ha).
Table 6.3: Projected change in the area of different forest types under A2-scenario relative to
the Baseline area for the time period of 1978-2006
Forest type Baseline ±SE Projected Area Change (%)

(000 ha) 2020s 2050s 2080s
(000 ha) (000 ha) (000 ha)
Conifers 1881.5±39.13 1819.81(-3.28) 1753.56(-6.79) 1670.46 (-9.96)
Scrubs 1546.8±71.24 1907.87(+23.4) 2053.71(+32.8) 2241.70 (+45.7)
Plantations 208.13±23.54 305.55 (+ 46.8) 410.92 (+97.44) 564.55 (+171.26)
Riverine 264.63±24.47 236.64 (-10.58) 334.87 (+26.55) 357.60) (+35.13)
Mangrove 378.88±39.44 368.64 (-0.17) 370.96 (-2.09) 450.00 (+18.77)
• Values in parentheses are percent increase or decrease in area
Under moderate B2-scenario, total forest area in Pakistan is projected to be 5,135,400 ha

(+19.99%) in 2080s as compared to baseline area of 4,279,940 ha (1978-2006). The pattern
of change in forest area is almost similar to A2-scenario except mangrove forest in 2050s.
The magnitude of increase or decrease of area under different forest types is relatively lesser
as compared to A2-scenario (Table 6.4). The highest projected decrease in area is 16.52% in
the Riverine forests in 2020s, followed by coniferous forests (around 7.5%) in 2080s. The
Riverine forests are projected to increase by 1.57 times in 2080s as compared to 2020s. The
rate of change in area of coniferous forests is relatively greater between 2020s and 2050s
(2.13 times) as compared to 2050s and 2080s (1.47 times).The scrub forests are projected to
increase by 1.37 times in 2080s. Similarly forest plantations are projected to be 466,550 ha
(2.24 times) in 2080s as compared to baseline. Similarly the mangrove forests will increase
by 1.23 times in 2080s as compared to 2020s. The highest increase will be in scrub forests
(694.9 ha) followed by forest plantations (356.42 ha), Riverine forest (92.97 ha) and
mangroves (71.12 ha).
The increase in scrub forests, both DSTBL and Dry Tropical Thorn, is explained in terms of
increased maximum temperature (0.38-4.51°C) under A2-scenario and B2-scenario which
131
make this area unsuitable for other vegetation type. The temperature in these areas, especially
for DTT, remains on the upper optimum limits throughout the year Current projections of
temperature suggest expansion of xerophytic type of vegetation (Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar,
Chhor, Sibbi, etc) at a rate of 12-40 km year-1.
Table 6.4: Projected change in the area of different forest types under B2-scenario relative to
the Baseline area for the time period of 1978-2006
Forest type Baseline ±SE Projected Area Change (%)

(000 ha) 2020s 2050s 2080s
(000 ha) (000 ha) (000 ha)
Conifers 1881.5±39.13 1835.96 (-2.4) 1785.61 (-5.1) 1740.72 (-7.5)
Scrubs 1546.8±71.24 1880.57 (+21.58) 2008.22 (+29.83) 2123.32 (+37.26)
Plantations 208.13±23.54 266.17 (+27.89) 376.10 (+80.71) 466.55 (+124.17)
Riverine 264.63±24.47 220.92 (-16.52) 307.38 (+16.16) 347.68 (+31.39)
Mangrove 378.88±39.44 371.58 (-1.93) 397.23 (+4.85) 457.13 (+20.65)
• Values in parentheses are percent increase or decrease in area
The results indicate an increase in forested area in Pakistan both under A2-scenario and B2-
scenario with increasing temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The
increase in forest area is, however, not uniform. Furthermore, movement of forests into arid
areas presently not suitable for forestry is also predicted. The increase in Riverine and
mangrove forests over the time period of 2050s-80s may be explained in terms of increased
rainfall over time slaps of 2020s-80s. The predictions show 76.9% and 18.6% increase in
mean annual rainfall in Riverine forests during that time period under A2-scenario and B2-
scenario, respectively, while there will be 30.2% increase in rainfall in mangrove forests
under B2-scenario.
6.1.3 Change in Vegetation Composition

A change in mean annual temperature, as small as 1°C over a sustained period is sufficient to
bring about changes in species compositions and distribution of many tree species (Davis and
Botkin, 1985; IPCC, 1996). Under a supposed doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (a
2 x CO2 climate), current global models project that a substantial fraction of existing forests
132
will experience climatic conditions under which they do not currently exist, possibly leading
to new vegetation type.
This study suggests that large coniferous forests in northern mountainous areas of Pakistan
would shift from one biome to another with future climate change, as well as an increase in
their productivity will be observed. The changes in the area of biomes may occur following
the two path-ways: (i) stock dieback followed by either natural or managed regeneration or
(ii) slow conversion of stock from one biome to another by migration and managed
regeneration. In Pakistan, either or both of these path-ways could occur.
The projections based on empirical models show, both altitudinal and latitudinal changes in
present boundaries of different forest types. There will be two types of migrations: (i)
migration of major species alone, and (ii) migration of major species along with associated
species. A number of climate-vegetation models have also shown that certain climatic
regimes are associated with particular plant communities or groups (Holdrige, 1947;
Thornthwaite, 1948; Walter, 1985; Whittaker, 1975).This redistribution of species may not
be uniform because within biome each species has specific optimum hydrothermal ranges.
According to projected climate changes, junipers, Juniperus communis and birch, Betula
utilis will shift little further into AP. In addition to these species, the stunted evergreen forest
species could potentially expand into the grasslands with an increase in temperature and
reduction in the incidence of frost.
J. communis will not only extend its upper limits into AP but its growth will be denser in SA
and DT regions as compared to MT. It may change its growth behaviour from stunted bushy
to tree type by getting optimum thermal and higher level of precipitation in SA and DT. The
projected increase in temperature and precipitation, further, favours DT and MT forests.
Within these forests, spruce, Picea smithiana will expand in area due to its broader thermal
range (-20 to 35°C) as compared to fir, Abies pindrow (-10 to 30°C). Similarly, deodar,
Cedrus deodara and blue pine, Pinus wallichiana will extend to SA. The area under montane
forests or grassland is also projected to increase in response to increasing temperature. C.
deodara will move slightly towards higher altitudes as compared to P. wallichiana while P.
wallichiana will grow densely in MT and mixed coniferous areas due to increased higher
133
optimum thermal limits (35°C) and will sparse growth in SA. On the other hand, due to
upward movement of SA and DT, species with low adaptability and migration potential
might extinct from lower edges of DT. C. deodara and P. wallichiana are projected to have
most favourable conditions in their native zone, namely moist temperate and subsequently
expected increased productivity of these species. The projected increase in temperature
during all seasons is also predicted to cause upward movement of tropical and sub-tropical
forests, present at lower altitudes, into dry temperate forests resulting in contraction or dying
of some temperate forests. Mixed areas of MT and STP, harbouring presently P. wallichiana
and chir, Pinus roxburghii together, will face vegetation changes. P. roxburghii expected to
move upward and dominate mixed forest area, besides, giving competition to P. wallichiana
in lower altitudes of MT. In terms of actual changes in species composition, this would mean
that in many areas where A. pindrow and P. smithiana are currently dominant, the more
temperate coniferous species, such as, C. deodara, and P. wallichiana would become
dominant. P. roxburghii would move into areas presently occupied by A. pindrow, P.
wallichiana and C. deodara. Projected vegetation compositions of coniferous forests
highlight change in: (i) altitudinal movement of species and (ii) density of the growing stock.
Overall coniferous area will remain under one or the other conifer species except STP and
western DT. In STP, broad leaf tree species like shisham, Dalbergia sissoo and mulberry,
Morus alba, while in western DT, olive, Olea species may invade into DT. Species with
higher range of heat hardiness will thrive better than their contemporaries.
The projected climate scenarios indicate transfer of some part of STP to DSTBL. Apart from
dominance of DSTBL in mixed areas (STP + DSTBL), DSTBL present in northern Punjab
will be encroaching pure chir pine zone. This change of biome will have serious effects on
primary species as well as their associated plant and animal communities. Similarly change
in vegetation composition in southwest is projected. Further as increased CO2 concentration
will help to cope better with arid conditions in southwest, this would result in southward
expansion of DSTBL into areas occupied by dry temperate forests. Besides, redistribution of
species, change in species composition within DSTBL is predicted due to differential thermal
optima of the species. Decrease in maximum temperature especially in summer under B2-
scenario and increase in winter season under A2- scenario and B2- scenario along with
134
increase in precipitation in spring, summer, and monsoon encourages growth of D. sissoo, O.
Ferrugine, Zizyphus spp, Ailanthes excelsa, Acacias and siris, Albizia spp. Extended dry
summer season, and increasing temperature during spring and autumn seasons suggest that
some parts of DSTBL may shift to dry thorn forest. The vegetation composition in dry
tropical thorn forests may not under go drastic changes, however, plant growth will be under
stress due to rising temperature, extended summer season and long dry spells. Apart from
stunted growth, limited soil moisture combined with long dry spells will cause increasing
mortality of trees in DTT forests.
Present climate changes in different types of forests will, therefore, re-demarcate forest
boundaries and redistribution of species. The magnitude of these changes could not be
predicted quantitatively in the absence of a transient response model. Forests may decline
due to death of trees, apart from shifts in forest types under the worst case-scenario. These
projections of forests and redistribution of species are in conformity as previously reported
for Pakistan (Siddiqui, et al., 1999) and India (Ravindranath, et al., 2006), and worldwide
simulations for vegetation redistribution. For instance, Urban and Shugart (1989) reported
species shifts and some dramatic declines in the condition of southern pine forests in
response to climate changes. The projected changes in species depends on a number of
factors, e.g. rate of climate change, potential of species to migrate, adapt and colonize in new
areas, edaphic factors and slope, stand age and condition, etc. Potential speed with which
trees can migrate into an area with more advantageous conditions is an important concern.
The rate of climate change currently projected will likely out-pace migration rates of species.
Historic changes in forest distribution due to the ice age and other events took place over 30
miles (~48 km) per century (Davis and Zabinski, 1992). Scientists and policy makers,
examining possible changes in climate due to current patterns of land and fossil fuel energy
use, predict faster rate of changes over the next 100 year (IPCC, 2007). Migration rates of
350 miles (~560 km) per century could be required to maintain species near their current
climatic ranges under some scenarios of climate change (IPCC, 1996). Another study
indicated that if the average global temperature increases by 2°C over the next 100 years, tree
species will have to migrate 1 to 3 miles every year, improbably fast except for trees whose
seeds are spread by birds and winds (Bloomfield, 2000). Such migration rates are unlikely to
135
occur in the absence of human intervention. Species responding poorly to climatic regimes
outside their current range, and in the absence of super natural rates of in-migration by better
adapted species, many forest types will vanish, in parts, of their current locations. Apart from
potential speed of migration, the inertia of the large old trees and resilience to stress of
vigorously growing mid-size trees may delay changes in species composition, by years or
centuries, which climatic changes might otherwise have caused more rapidly. Such findings
have also been reported by Urban, et al. (1993) and Sykes and Prentice (1996). The response
of a particular type of vegetation and its migration due to climate change also depends upon
the proximity of seed source, dispersal agents (animals or wind), topography and the degree
of fragmentation of the forest. Besides, decreasing wind speed in most of coniferous forests
could slow down migration, particularly in those species depending on wind for seed
dispersal. Thus two patches of a single vegetation type under different conditions might
respond differently, such changes are expected in Pakistan too. Projected rate of specific
migration could potentially result in large-scale decline of biodiversity and extinction of
some species.
Predicted ecological changes in forest area, composition, cover, and productivity should,
however, be considered in the context of future socio-economic changes and the capacity of
human beings to adjust and adapt to new conditions. It should be recognized that existing
forests in Pakistan occupy a small area and are under heavy pressure of deforestation, land-
use changes, grazing, erosion and so forth by increasing human and cattle populations. In
general these activities are expected to worsen the forest deficient situation in future because
of the combined influence of climate change and increased severity of socio-economic
pressures on forests. In the past, forest areas have been affected more by changes in land use
than by climate change. Forest lands in mountainous areas have been converted to
agricultural lands. Similarly small patches in semi arid and arid areas (Cholistan, Thar, Thal)
termed as scrub forests have been brought under agriculture. This single factor may have
higher effect on forests and species composition than that of climate change. The rising
temperature has effect on sea level and subsequently the sea water might intrude the
mangrove forest areas near Karachi and Badin. The rising sea level may be a limiting factor
136
in the expansion of mangrove forests. Moreover, this may influence growth of existing plants
and subsequently their productivity.
6.1.4 Forest Out-Turn

Out-turn of forest in Pakistan in terms of wood production, both softwood and hardwood
species will increase until the middle of current century under extreme climatic conditions
(A2-scenario). The rate of increase of timber out-turn will be relatively greater as compared
to firewood over time laps of 1990s-2020s (Table 6.5). With increased temperature, however,
rate of timber out-turn will be reduced as compared to firewood. The increased rate of
firewood out-turn may be explained in terms of increase in non-coniferous forest areas,
especially scrubs and forest plantations. Out-turn of forest is projected to be decreased
considerably, both timber (-30.21%) and firewood (-19.69%) during the periods 2050s and
2080s. Different rate of increase or decrease in out-turn of forest indicates differential
optimum temperature and precipitation range of different forest tree species. The drastic
reduction in out-turn of forest in 2080s indicate a significant negative impact of rising
temperature on all forest types of Pakistan.
Table 6.5: Projected change in forest out-turn under A2-scenario relative to the Baseline
output for the time period of 1972-2006
Out-turn Baseline ±SE Projected out-turn (000 m3)

(000 m3) 2020s 2050s 2080s
Timber 350.08±20.62 579.92 (+65.65) 431.07 (+23.13) 244.33 (-30.21)
Firewood 208.04±13.07 334.03 (+60.56) 259.91 (+24.93) 167.08 (-19.69)
(solid)
• Values in parentheses are percent increase or decrease in out-turn
Under moderate climate change B2-scenario, out-turn of forest, both softwood and hardwood
will increase on the projected time scale (Table 6.6). The scale of timber and firewood our-
turn will be greater under B2-scenario as compared to A2-scenario. The rate of increase in
timber out-turn will be relatively greater as compared to firewood during 1990-2020s while it
will be almost same in 2050s. With increasing temperature and atmospheric CO2
concentrations, out-turn of firewood will be higher as compared to timber. The increased out-
137
turn rate of firewood between 2050s and 2080s may be assigned to increase in non-
coniferous areas, especially scrubs and forest plantations.
Table 6.6: Projected change in forest out-turn under B2-scenario relative to the Baseline
output for the time period of 1972-2006
Out-turn Baseline ±SE Projected out-turn (000 m3)

(000 m3) 2020s 2050s 2080s
Timber 350.08±20.62 605.92 (+73.08) 468.99 (+33.96) 361.69 (+3.31)
Firewood 208.04±13.07 346.71 (+66.67) 277.80 (+33.53) 225.01 (+8.16)
(solid)
• Values in parentheses are percent increase or decrease in out-turn
Present projections indicate an increase in out-turn of timber and firewood with increasing
temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Productivity, both of coniferous and
hardwood species will increase over time period of 1990-2020s while rate of increase is seen
decreasing over time periods of 2020s and 2050s. Under likely extreme conditions, out-turn
of forest will decrease over a time periods of 2050s and 2080s. The projected increase in
productivity of coniferous forests with increasing CO2 concentrations, warming and increase
in precipitation has previously been reported in Pakistan (Siddiqui, et al., 1999). They
reported a positive linear correlation among productivity, temperature and atmospheric CO2
concentrations. Contrarily present findings indicate increase in forest productivity to certain
level of temperature and CO2 concentration followed by decrease. Increase in forest
productivity leading to increased supply of certain types of timber has also been reported in
National Assessment of US (Bloomfield, 2000). These forest gains, however, could reduce
through possible interactions with extreme events and other disturbances.
Apart from temperature and precipitation, increasing atmospheric CO2, concentration also
affects the plant growth. Increased atmospheric CO2, concentration acts as a fertilizer for
plants and enables them to use water more efficiently. While forest productivity seems to
increase with increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and rising temperature, local
conditions, such as, availability of soil moisture and nutrients strongly temper positive
influence of the CO2 concentration and other climatic factors. In addition to edaphic factors,
138
disproportionate increase in temperature will not necessarily increase growth of trees rather
may reduce it for some species. Such results have also earlier reported by Carter (1996). In
fact, the productivity has curvilinear correlation with temperature and precipitation. The
persistent exposure to increased temperature under dry conditions affects photosynthetic
phenomenon of plants and subsequently its growth and productivity. These factors justify the
present projected trends of out-turn of forest in Pakistan.
Apart from thresholds of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentrations,

plant growth and its productivity depends strongly on growing degree-days and seasonal
variations. The present climatic predictions showed a considerable gain in growing degree-
days (DD) vis-à-vis seasonal variations in forest of Pakistan (Table 6.7-6.11). The increase in
DD was relatively greater under A2-scenario as compared to B2-scenario. The highest
increase in DD is projected during winter in all forest types followed by monsoon. Among
forests, the highest DD increase is projected for Riverine forests followed by scrub forests.
The difference between scrub and coniferous forests is marginal. The DD will decrease in
DSTBL (19.92 to 5.49) during 2020s autumn under B2-scenario. Similarly, decreasing DD
(7.32) is projected for STP during 2020s summer. The increasing DD would provide longer
growing period especially to coniferous forests while this may have negative effect on scrub
and Riverine forests, because these forests are already exposed to continuous high
temperatures during summer, monsoon and autumn seasons. High temperatures combined
with longer dry spells, are assumed to affect plant growth negatively and subsequently out-
turn of forest.
6.1.5 Growing Seasons and Tree Phenology

Plants rely on a certain range in seasonal temperatures and precipitation for proper function
in their various life stages. Plant phenology is an important seasonal function of plants,
governed by genetic make-up and climatic conditions. The projected seasonal variations
suggest considerable changes in flowering seasons as well as maturity of seeds. The gain in
degree days, in coniferous forests resulting in early on-set of spring season, will change the
flowering time of coniferous and associated plant species. The highest shortening of the
spring season is projected in SA (~ 18 days) followed by DT in northern mountainous areas
(~17 days), while spring season will have almost same length in south western DT. The
139
variation in spring season in DSTBL, DTT, IP, RF and MF will be negligible (1 to 2 days).
These projections indicate early flowering of A. pindrow, P. wallichiana, C. deodara, J.
excelsa, and P. smithiana, etc. These changes in tree phenology will certainly affect seasonal
rhythms of insect fauna and higher order members of their food webs.
6.1.6 Insect / Pests’ Occurrence

Forests are strongly affected by a number of disturbances, including fire, drought, insects,
diseases, and severe storms. Climatic changes may also affect pest and disease regimes, fire,
and extreme weather events, which would have additional indirect effects on forests (IPCC
1996). In Pakistan several insect pest infestations have been associated with climate changes.
For instance, infestation of the Shisham bark borer, Agrilus dalbergiae Thery (Coleoptera:
Buprestidae) became serious on Shisham, Dalbergia sissoo under dry conditions during
1971-72, in Islamabad, causing 10-20% tree mortality due to heavy infestation. The boring
grubs girdled the tree trunk and main branches. During dry season, trees become weak and
infested by the borer. Persistent drought, during 1971-72, and increased temperature created
optimum conditions for the bark beetle which multiplied into large populations (Chaudhry
and Gul, 1981). Similarly, Ips longifolia Stebbing (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) and Scolytus
major Stebbing (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) infested the blue pine, P. wallichiana at Murree,
Gallies (Donga Gali, Bagnotar), AJ&K (Lower Haveli, Rawalakot, Pallandri, Dhirkot,
Kahuta), in 2001. The pest population was developed on the weak trees growing under
moisture stress on warmer aspects and ridges with stony soil. The main cause of the pest out
break was assumed to be the physiological stress due to extremely dry and hot conditions,
during winter 2000 and preceding spring (Gul and Khan, 2001). Another lepidopterous pest,
hairy caterpillar, Dasychira spp. (Lymantriidae) infested P. roxburghii at Timergara-Dir
(Sangar forests in Rania, Khanpur, Bambulai and Taknai) during 2005-06 due to long dry
spells.
Trees are constantly exposed to a set of insect pests which under optimum conditions are able
to tolerate infestation. Away from optimum climate range, plants come under physiological
stress and unable to tolerate pest infestations and subsequently suffer heavy losses (Logan, et
al., 1995, Winnet, 1998). Based on projected climate changes, it is inferred that insect pest
infestations will be common in areas having rising temperature and long dry spells. Present
140
projection of temperature and subsequently variation in growing season will favour growth
rate of some pests, thus allowing more generations as well as increased intensity of
population. Apart from climatic conditions, fast migration of plant species will complicate
pest problems. Since migrated plants are more prone to pests and diseases attacks as
compared to indigenous species, the vigorous plant growth in moist forest will also attract
more insects.
6.2 Conclusions
Based on present findings, it is concluded that projected climate scenarios will affect forests
in Pakistan. The projected changes include: (i) upward movement of coniferous forests in
northern area, while latitudinal spread of DSTBL, DTT, (ii) an increase in overall forest area
of Pakistan where some type of forests will gain while others will lose, (iii) massive changes
in species composition (iv) an increase in out-turn of forest both in timber and firewood
which will decline afterwards, and increased incidence of insect pests and diseases out-
breaks. The actual change in forest area would, however, depend mostly upon the ability of
the species to migrate to new areas as well as on the activities of human beings in the
forested areas. The projections also indicate how the tree species in different biomes might
change and areas that are currently not suitable for forestry might become so with changing
climate. A. pindrow and P. smithiana will be replaced, in their current dominant areas, with
C. deodara and P. wallichiana, while P. roxburghii will move into areas of A. pindrow, P.
wallichiana and C. deodara. The STP will give away a considerable area to DSTBL. These
changes will affect plants and animals that live in the forest, both by changing habitat and in
direct response to temperature increases and changes in precipitation, fire regimes, and storm
events. It is unknown as yet whether biological diversity would be reduced if climate change
occurred at a fast rate, but the new composition of species is likely to be one of heat-tolerant
and fast adaptive to the changed climate conditions. The transitional phase may cause
increased stresses, dieback, reproductive failure and forced adaptation of species. The climate
projections indicate severe pest infestations especially in transitional phases. These
projections show pattern and direction of change in tree line shift, forest area, species
compositions and forest out-turn. For precise assessment model based study is suggested as a
141
way forward. Similarly site productivity indices are recommended for assessing climate
change impacts on forests productivity.
142
Table 6.7: Projected increase in growing degree-days during winter in different forest
types
Forest A2-Scenario B2-Scenario

type 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 194.4 360.9 521.1 102.6 294.3 408.6
SA 189.0 357.3 542.7 135.0 305.1 419.4
DT-1 189.9 402.3 588.6 170.1 343.8 459.0
DT-2 172.8 342.0 513.9 165.6 309.6 392.4
MT 175.5 352.8 547.2 162.9 315.9 415.8
STP 170.1 349.2 512.1 154.8 297.9 402.3
DSTBL-1 168.3 344.7 503.1 164.7 296.1 406.8
DSTBL-2 164.7 334.8 486.0 137.7 273.6 392.4
DTT-1 177.3 358.2 522.9 169.2 316.8 410.4
DTT-2 202.5 387.0 545.4 154.8 317.7 430.2
DTT-3 184.5 353.7 515.7 169.2 307.8 411.3
DTT-4 159.3 325.8 495.0 148.5 292.5 386.1
DTT-5 187.2 389.7 549.0 180.0 334.8 441.9
IP 180.0 348.3 499.5 119.7 285.3 387.9
RF-1 189.9 378.9 540.9 169.2 320.4 427.5
RF-2 180.0 370.8 528.3 171.9 319.5 423.0
MF 162.0 342.0 497.7 169.2 300.6 397.8
Table 6.8: Projected increase in growing degree-days during spring in different forest
types

type 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 81.1 198.9 275.1 70.2 159.8 205.0
SA 83.6 209.2 298.3 73.2 158.6 220.2
DT-1 87.2 214.7 311.1 79.3 162.3 221.4
DT-2 78.1 210.5 299.5 59.2 158.0 231.2
MT 83.6 229.4 336.7 80.5 172.6 241.0
STP 84.2 223.3 312.3 73.8 162.3 227.5
DSTBL-1 93.3 230.0 309.3 69.5 159.2 234.9
DSTBL-2 95.8 238.5 323.3 76.9 168.4 247.1
DTT-1 96.4 230.0 316.6 69.5 165.9 241.0
DTT-2 108.0 248.9 340.4 86.0 185.4 264.1
DTT-3 98.2 220.2 310.5 73.8 167.8 244.0
DTT-4 83.6 206.2 297.7 61.0 163.5 236.1
DTT-5 93.9 192.8 297.1 84.2 166.5 235.5
IP 104.3 242.8 331.8 81.1 180.0 251.9
RF-1 101.3 228.1 325.1 82.4 180.0 252.5
RF-2 90.9 195.2 297.7 79.3 165.3 233.6
MF 83.6 160.4 264.1 81.1 149.5 207.4
143
Table 6.9: Projected increase in growing degree-days during summer in different forest
types

type 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 89.1 175.1 281.2 69.5 133.6 198.9
SA 95.2 210.5 342.2 68.3 166.5 233.6
DT-1 84.8 199.5 327.0 58.6 156.2 224.5
DT-2 104.9 200.7 336.1 67.7 166.5 230.6
MT 64.7 153.7 274.5 21.4 112.2 181.8
STP 55.5 115.3 242.8 -7.3 79.3 156.8
DSTBL-1 65.9 142.1 270.2 11.6 108.0 178.7
DSTBL-2 69.5 137.9 264.1 9.2 108.0 179.3
DTT-1 89.7 172.0 304.4 36.6 134.8 209.2
DTT-2 100.7 167.8 296.5 47.6 144.0 209.2
DTT-3 112.2 192.2 324.5 67.7 158.6 223.9
DTT-4 118.3 210.5 347.1 81.1 171.4 242.2
DTT-5 89.7 141.5 231.8 73.2 119.0 183.6
IP 74.4 130.5 251.9 12.8 104.9 167.1
RF-1 114.1 182.4 307.4 72.6 152.5 219.6
RF-2 96.4 153.1 248.9 73.8 125.1 192.2
MF 73.8 129.9 209.2 69.5 107.4 166.5
Table 6.10: Projected increase in growing degree-days during monsoon in different forest
types

type 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 149.0 282.4 577.8 122.4 270.5 413.1
SA 224.5 370.8 681.7 167.4 369.8 527.2
DT-1 196.9 342.2 631.1 153.6 344.1 495.0
DT-2 185.8 321.1 564.0 153.6 301.8 399.3
MT 125.1 216.2 421.4 120.5 224.5 310.0
STP 70.8 143.5 313.7 87.4 162.8 212.5
DSTBL-1 49.7 114.1 314.6 64.4 128.8 192.3
DSTBL-2 41.4 105.8 272.3 56.1 115.0 161.0
DTT-1 115.9 198.7 404.8 97.5 187.7 277.8
DTT-2 75.4 136.2 299.9 49.7 118.7 181.2
DTT-3 122.4 237.4 439.8 113.2 181.2 284.3
DTT-4 184.9 326.6 555.7 156.4 299.0 389.2
DTT-5 99.4 201.5 342.2 87.4 153.6 228.2
IP 33.1 82.8 219.0 37.7 82.8 122.4
RF-1 126.0 219.9 393.8 92.0 187.7 263.1
RF-2 101.2 208.8 352.4 83.7 176.6 238.3
MF 85.6 193.2 330.3 92.0 167.4 231.8
144
Table 6.11: Projected increase in growing degree-days during autumn in different forest
types

type 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s
AP 91.5 187.9 355.0 72.6 198.9 273.3
SA 94.6 197.6 382.5 86.0 219.0 299.5
DT-1 92.7 183.0 353.2 76.9 194.0 277.6
DT-2 86.6 170.8 331.8 59.8 169.6 245.2
MT 67.1 145.2 290.4 54.9 153.1 228.1
STP 42.1 102.5 239.1 32.9 108.0 189.7
DSTBL-1 23.8 68.3 216.6 14.6 83.6 181.8
DSTBL-2 15.9 53.7 202.5 -5.5 61.0 170.2
DTT-1 73.8 153.1 304.4 52.5 152.5 237.9
DTT-2 61.0 97.0 282.4 17.7 122.6 241.6
DTT-3 44.5 98.2 259.9 33.6 90.9 206.8
DTT-4 96.4 184.8 339.8 79.9 177.5 251.9
DTT-5 83.0 164.7 307.4 72.0 152.5 244.6
IP 22.0 34.8 198.9 -19.5 48.8 153.1
RF-1 84.2 162.3 324.5 56.7 154.3 267.2
RF-2 79.9 163.5 305.6 68.3 153.1 242.2
MF 77.5 161.7 290.4 76.9 144.6 214.1
------------------------------------------- x x x x x x x --------------------------------------------
145
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Research Report

Past and Projected Impacts of Climate Change

Global Change Impact Studies Centre

Past and Projected Impacts of Climate Change

M. Munir Sheikh, Naeem Manzoor, Nadia Rehman, Muhammad Adnan and

Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)

Published in: May, 2015

This Report may be cited as follows:

Chapter 2: Forest Types of Pakistan, their Locations and Characteristics

Chapter 3: Critical Review of Future Scenarios

Chapter 4: Temperature and Precipitation Regime and Past Climate Changes

Chapter 5: Projected Climate Changes over different Forest Types of Pakistan

Chapter 6: Climate Change and the Forest Indicators

* Pakistan Forest Institute (PFI), Peshawar, Pakistan

1.1 Geographic and Physiographic Features of Pakistan 1

CHAPTER – 2 FOREST TYPES OF PAKISTAN, THEIR LOCATIONS AND

CHAPTER – 4 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION REGIME AND PAST

CHAPTER – 5 PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGES OVER DIFFERENT

CHAPTER – 6 CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE FOREST INDICATORS

6.1 Introduction 126

Dr. Arshad Muhammad Khan

AR4 Fourth Assessment Report

AR5 Fifth Assessment Report

AOGCM Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Model

CRU Climate Research Unit

DSTBL Dry Sub-Tropical Broad-leaved

DTT Dry Tropical Thorn

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

GCISC Global Change Impact Studies Centre

GCOS Global Climate Observing System

GCM Global Circulation Model

FAR First Assessment Report

GHG Greenhouse Gas

ICTP Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

MoEnv Ministry of Environment

MPI Max Planck Institute

NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research

NFP National Forest Programme

OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development

PMD Pakistan Meteorological Department

PRECIS Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies

RCM Regional Climate Model

SAR Second Assessment Report

SRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios

SST Sea Surface Temperature

STP Sub-Tropical Pine

TAR Third Assessment Report

WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority

WMO World Meteorological Organization

WRF Weather Research and Forecasting

1.2 Climatological Features of Pakistan

1.3 Current Status of Forests in Pakistan

1.4 Forests’ Role in our Socio-economic Sector

1.5 Climate Change and Forestry

1.7 Objectives of the Study

1.8.1 Analysis of the Past Trends

1.8.2 Critical Review of the Future Scenarios

1.8.3 Downscaling Climate Change Scenarios

1.9.1 Selection of a Forest Map of Pakistan

Fig. 1.3: Land cover / land use map of Pakistan

1.9.2 Preparation of a gridded Forest Map for Analysis

1.9.3 Data and Methodology