Report Series HSE 88-001

CONFIDENTIAL

THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT

This document is confidential. Neither the whole nor any part of this document may be disclosed to any third party without the prior written consent of

Shell lnternationale Petroleum Maatschappij B.V., The Hague, the Netherlands.

The copyright of this document is vested in Shell lnternationale Petroleum Maatschappij B.V., The Hague, the Netherlands. All rights reserved. Neither the whole nor any

part of this document may be reproduced, stored in any retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, reprographic, recording or

otherwise) without the prior written consent of the copyright owner.

SHELL INTERNATIONALE PETROLEUM MAATSCHAPPIJ B.V., THE HAGUE

Health, Safety and Environment Division (HSE)
 Report Series HSE 88-001

CONFIDENTIAL

THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT

This document is confidential. Neither the whole nor any part of this document may be disclosed to any third party without the prior written consent of
Shell lnternationale Petroleum Maatschappij B.V., The Hague, the Netherlands.
The copyright of this document is vested in Shell lnternationale Petroleum Maatschappij B.V., The Hague, the Netherlands. All rights reserved. Neither the whole nor any
part of this document may be reproduced, stored in any retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, reprographic, recording or

otherwise) without the prior written consent of the copyright owner.

SHELL INTERNATIONALE PETROLEUM MAATSCHAPPIJ B.V., THE HAGUE

Health, Safety and Environment Division (HSE)

 CONFIDENTIAL

THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT

Greenhouse effect working group

R.P.W.M. Jacobs HSE/35

M.H. Griffiths PL/15

P.E. Bright PAC/3
J.B. Homer SCCU
J.A.C.M. van Oudenhoven MFPA/435
J. Waller MFPA/435

Shell Internationale Petroleum Maatschappij B.V.

Health, Safety and Environment Division
Environmental Affairs
The Hague

April 1986 (completion of the study)

May 1988 (date of issue in this format)

Prepared for SECC

(Shell Environmental Conservation Committee)
 CONFIDENTIAL

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SUMMARY

Man-made carbon dioxide, released into and accumulated in the atmosphere, is

believed to warm the earth through the so-called greenhouse effect. The gas
acts like the transparent walls of a greenhouse and traps heat in the
atmosphere that would normally be radiated back into space. Mainly due to
fossil fuel burning and deforestation, the atmospheric C02 concentration has
increased some 15% in the present century to a level of about 340 ppm. If
this trend continues, the concentration will be doubled by the third quarter
of the next century. The most sophisticated geophysical computer models
predict that such a doubling could increase the global mean temperature by
l.3-3.3•c. The release of other (trace) gases, notably chlorofluorocarbons,
methane, ozone and nitrous oxide, which have the same effect, may amplify
the warming by predicted factors ranging from 1.5 to 3.s•c.

Mathematical models of the earth's climate indicate that if this warming

occurs then it could create significant changes in sea level, ocean
currents, precipitation patterns, regional temperature and weather. These
changes could be larger than any that have occurred over the last 12,000
years. Such relatively fast and dramatic changes would impact on the human
environment, future living standards and food supplies, and could have
major social, economic and political consequences.

There is reasonable scientific agreement that increased levels of greenhouse

gases would cause a global warming. However, there- is no consensus about the
degree of warming and no very good understanding what the specific effects
of warming might be. But as long as man continues to release greenhouse
gases into the atmosphere, participation in such a global "experiment" is
guaranteed. Many scientists believe that a real increase in the global
temperature will be detectable towards the end of this century or early next
century. In the meanwhile, greater sophistication both in modelling and
monitoring will improve the understanding and likely outcomes. However, by
the time the global warming becomes detectable it could be too late to take
effective countermeasures to reduce the effects or even to stabilise the
situation.

The likely time scale of possible change does not necessitate immediate
remedial action. However, the potential impacts are sufficiently serious for
research to be directed more to the analysis of policy and energy options
than to studies of what we will be facing exactly. Anticipation of climatic
change is new, preventing undue change is a challenge which requires
international cooperation.

With fossil fuel combustion being the major source of C02 in the atmosphere,
a forward looking approach by the energy industry is clearly desirable,
seeking to play its part with governments and others in the development of
appropriate measures to tackle the problem.
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CONTENTS

p age

S umm a ry 1

1 . Introduc t i on 6

2 . S c i enti f i c data 7
2.1. Introduc t i on 7
2.2. Data on emi s s i ons o f greenhous e gas e s 7
2 . 2 . 1 . C arbon diox i de 7
2 . 2 . 2 . O ther greenhous e gas e s 8
2.3. The global c arbon cycl e 10
2 . 3 . 1 . A tmo sphere - ocean interact ions 11
2 . 3 . 2 . Atmo sphere - t e rre s t r i a l b io sphere interac t i ons 13
2 . 3 . 3 . C arbon cyc l e mo de l l ing 15

3 . S c e nar i o s and c l imate model l ing 17

3.1. C 0 2 emi s s ions and future energy demand 17
3.2. Proj e c t ions o f non - C02 greenhous e gas e s 18
3.3. Temp e rature and c l imat i c change s 20
3.4. D e t e c t ion of the greenhous e e ffec t 22

4 . Imp l ications 23
4. 1. Po tent i al effe c t s of global warming induce d by greenhous e
gas e s 23
4 . 1 . 1 . Ab i o t i c effe c t s and b i o t i c cons e quence s 23
4 . 1 . 2 . S oc i o - e conomic imp l i c a t i ons 25
4 . 1 . 3 . Imp l i c a t i ons for the energy indus try 28
4 . 1 . 4 . Imp l ications for She l l Companie s 28

5 . S c op e for further ac t ion 30

6 . Re ferenc e s 32
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FIGURES page

Fig . 1 . The greenhous e e ffec t . 40

Fig . 2 . C02 emi s s ions der ived from long - range proj e c ti ons
and h i s tor ic produc t i on from fos s i l fue l s . 41

Fig . 3 . Proj e c te d C02 emi s s ions gene rated wi th the I IASA

Energy Sys tems Programm e . 42

F ig . 4 . The hypothe t ical atmospher i c C02 concentrat i ons bas e d

on man - made C 0 2 emis s ions and the obs erved concentrations
at Mauna Loa and the South Pole . 43

F ig . 5 . The annual mean C02 c oncentrat i on in the a i r at di ffe r ent

p l ac e s in the wor l d . 44

Fig . 6 . The global c arbon cyc l e . 45

F ig . 7. Var iat ion o f the buffe r fac tor of s e awater w i th changing

to tal C02 . 46

Fig . 8. Increas e in atmo sphe r ic C02 conc entrat ion over the next
1 5 0 ye ars . 47

Fig . 9 . Fal l ing energy intens i ty i n the USA 48

Fig . 10 . Cumulat ive s ur face warming due to incre ase in C02

and o ther gas e s over the period 1 9 8 0 to 2 0 3 0 . 49

Fig . 1 1 . C l imati c e ffe cts o f a doub l ing o f the pre s ent atmo spher i c
C 0 2 c oncentrat i on . 50

F ig . 1 2 . Re cons truc t ion o f sur face - air - temperature anoma l i e s for

var i ous lati tude b ands . 51
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TABLES p age

Tab l e 1 . C02 emi s s ions per year by fue l typ e . 52

Tab l e 2 . C arbon produc e d ( as C02 ) from s el e c ted energy s ources . 52

Tab l e 3 . C02 emi s s i ons p e r region and p e r c ap ita i n 1 9 7 5 . 53

Tabl e 4 . Es t imates o f the abundance o f trace chemicals i n the glob al

atmo sphere o f 1 9 80 and 2 0 3 0 . 54

Tab l e 5 . Net p rimary produc t iv i t i e s p e r g iven areas ( NPP ) , t o tal

areas ( in 1 9 8 0 ) , t o tal NPP and ac tual b iomas s per e c o sys tem . 55

Tab l e 6 . C arbon emi s s i on ( in GtC ) from the combus t ion o f fo s s il and

b iomas s fue l s . 56

Tab l e 7 . She l l Group intere s t i n fos s i l fue l s i n 1 9 84 . 57

Tab l e 8 . C ontr ibuti on t o global C 0 2 emi s s i ons from fuel s s o l d by

the Shel l Group in 1 9 8 4 . 57
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APPENDICES p age

Appendix 1 . The C02/carbonate sys tem in the oce an . 58

Appendix 2 . H i l eman , B . Recent reports on the greenhous e e ffec t .

Environ . S c i . Techno! . 1 8 : 4 5A - 4 6A , 1 9 84 . 61

App endix 3 . Current l eg i s lat i on and p o l i c e s . 63

App endix 4 . Exce rp ts from r e c ent UNEP reports . 68

App endix 5 . Inte rnational o rganisat ions and info rmat ion c entre s . 75

App endix 6 . Ins t i tute s invo lved in C02/c l imate/greenhous e e ffec t

r e s e arch . 78

Appendix 7 . Re l evant pub l i cat ions ( reports and books ) . 82

Appendix 8 . V i s i t to C l imate Re s e arch Uni t . 86

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1 . I NTRODUCTI ON

The l i fe - support ing sys tems of the e arth ( such as l ight , energy , mo i s ture ,
and t emperature ) c an be affec te d by change s in global condi tions . Many o f
such change s a r e occurring at pres ent , s ome o f them sub t l e and many of them
c aus e d by man . Thes e effe c ts on the l i fe - support ing sys tems c an have a
sub s tant i al imp ac t on global hab itab i l i ty . The rate at whi ch many of the s e
change s are occurr ing , espec ially during the pas t few decade s , has b e en
c ons i derab l e . A obvious examp le of thi s i s the r i s ing l evel o f atmo spher i c
c arbon diox i de ( C02 ) . Thi s has b e en des c r ibed as a long - t e rm global
exper iment , the outcome of whi ch is very uncertain .

The global r i s e in atmo spher i c C02 i s wel l documente d . I t i s e s t imated that

human ac t ivi t i e s ( e . g . fos s i l fue l burning , defor e s tat ion ) have inc r e as e d
the C02 concentration b y about 1 5 % dur ing the p a s t century . More than a
c entury ago i t was already hypo thes is e d that an increase in the C02
c oncentra t i on o f the atmo sphere would lead to global warming , i.e. the
s o - c a l l e d " gre enhous e e ffec t " . S everal other gas e s , having s im i l ar e ffects ,
a l s o appe ar to b e increas ing as a resul t of human ac t iv i t i e s .

Many s c ient i s ts b e l i eve that the maj or e ffec t of increas ing the C02 c ontent
of the atmo sphere wi l l be a gradual warming of the e ar th ' s sur fac e . Should
ave r age global tempe ratures r i s e s igni ficantly becaus e o f the greenhous e
e ffe c t and should the earth ' s c l imate change , thi s could have maj or e c onomic
and s o c ial cons e quences . However , not eve ryone agr e e s w i th thi s v iew of
po s s ib l e di s as ter . They po int to the demons trab l e p o s i t ive e ffec t s o f
e l evated C 0 2 c onc entrations , and sugges t a bene f i t to the b i o sphe re w i thout
the generation of a c l imat i c c atas trophe . Agains t th is b acklog of
d i s agreement s c ient i s ts o f b o th p e rsuas ions have s e ar ched f o r the firs t
s igns o f any e ffe c ts on a global s cale .

I t i s e s t imat e d that any c l imati c change re l atab l e t o C02 would no t b e

de t e c tab l e b e fore the end o f the century . With the very long t ime s ca l e s
involved , i t woul d be tempt ing for s o c i e ty to wai t unt i l then b e fore do ing
anything . The po tential imp l ic a t ions for the wor l d are , howeve r , s o l arge
that p o l i cy op t i ons nee d to be c ons idered much earl i e r . And the energy
indus try nee ds to c ons ider how i t should p lay i t s par t .

In thi s report the l ate s t ( 1 9 8 6 ) s tate of knowle dge i s p r e s ented regarding

the greenhous e e ffe c t to j udge any countera c t ive measure s . I t de scr ibe s the
c ons i derab l e r e s e arch work be ing c arr i e d out wor l d w i de ; i t p rovi de s
information t o improve the unde r s tanding and i t d i s cus s e s the imp l i c a tions .
For thi s reason add i t ional informat ion i s added on leg i s lat ion and p o l i c i e s
(Appendix 3 ) , r e levant int e rna t ional organ i s at ions and i nforma t i on c entres
(Appendix 5) and ins t i tute s involved in greenhous e e ffec t r e s e arch ( Appendix
6). Moreove r , in add i t ion to the re ferenc e s us e d , a l i s t of re l evant reports
and books is added ( Appendix 7 ) to provi de the intere s t e d reader acc e s s to
the enormous flow of informa t i on r e l a t ive to the greenhous e e ffe c t .

Re ference s us e d in thi s s e c t i on : 2 , 14 , 2 1 , 2 5 , 5 1 , 5 9 .
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2 . S C I ENTI FI C DATA

2 . 1 . Introduc t i on

Dur ing the las t c entury the c oncentration of c arbon diox i de increased from
an e stimated 2 9 0 ppm in 1 8 6 0 to 340 ppm in 1 9 8 0 . Approximate ly 2 5 % o f thi s
inc r e a s e o ccurred during the 1 9 7 0 s . Al though the c oncentrat i on o f C02 in the
a tmo sphere i s relative ly smal l , i t i s important in de t e rmining the global
c l imate . It p e rmi t s vis ib l e and ul travio l e t radiat ion from the sun to
pene trate to the e ar th ' s surfac e , but abs o rb s s ome o f the infrare d energy
that i s radi ated back into s pace . The atmo spher i c C02 emi t s thi s energy to
b o th the troposphere and to the earth ' s sur face ( se e Fig . 1 ) , r e sul t ing in a
warming o f the sur face and the a tmosphere in the way the glas s in a·
gre enhous e doe s - hence the t e rm greenhous e e ffec t .

The be s t known and mo s t abundant greenhous e gas i s c arbon diox i de . Howeve r ,

s ome trace gas e s , part icular ly chloro fluoroc arbons (CFC ' s ) , oz one , me thane ,
and N20 are at l eas t as important in changing the radiation energy balance
o f the e ar th - atmo sphe re sys tem , as , c o l l e c t ive ly , they might c aus e an
add i t i onal warming e qual to 5 0 - 100% o f the warming due to C02 al one .

I t has b e en generally accepted that any modi ficat i on in the rad i a t i on energy
balance of the atmo sphere wi l l affe c t the global c irculat ion patterns . As a
c ons e quence regional c l imat i c change s w i l l then o c cur , which wi l l be greater
than the average global change s . The mo s t promi s ing approach to s tudy the
e ffe c t s of increas ing gas concentrations on the atmo sphe re , i s to de s c r ibe
and predic t the (future ) global c l imate by comp lex General C l imate Mode l s
(GCM ' s ) . The main fac tors and proce s s e s us e d to predict the e ar th ' s
t emp e rature prof i l e s and c l imatic change s are pre s ented in th i s s e c t ion . The
extent and rate o f the change s , bas e d on s c enar i o s for energy consump t ion
and emi s s i on of C02 and o ther trace gas e s , will b e d i s cus s e d in s e c t ion 3 .

2 . 2 . Data on emi s s i ons o f gre enhous e gas e s

2 . 2 . 1 . Carbon d i ox ide

Al though C02 is emi tted to the atmo sphere as a c ons e quence of s everal
p r o ce s s e s , e . g . oxidation of humic sub s tance s and de fore s ta t i on , the main
c aus e o f increas ing C02 c oncentrat i ons i s cons idered to b e fo s s i l fue l
burning . Only fos s i l fuel burning c an be fairly accurate ly quant i fi e d .

S ince the beginning o f the indus t r i al and agr i cul tural revo lut ions the
average annual inc r e a s e in C02 produc t i on has been 3 . 5 % , w i th t o tal
emi s s i ons from � i d - n ine teenth c entury to 1 9 8 1 be ing 160 G tC ( 1 G tC-1 gigaton
1
o f c arbon - 1 0 g C ) . In 1 8 6 0 the annual emis s i on was approximate ly 0 . 0 9 3
G t C and i n 1 9 8 1 5 . 3 G t C . R i s ing fue l p r i c e s i n the 1 9 7 0 ' s s lackened the C02
produc t ion to yearly increas e s o f 2 . 2 % per year over the period 1 9 7 3 - 1 9 8 0
( s e e the f i r s t part o f Fig . 2 ) .

The C02 emit te d into the a tmo sphere i s very qui ckly global ly d i s tr ibute d .
Thi s i s mainly due to the fac t that the emi s s i ons are more o r l e s s evenly
d i s tr ibut e d over the c ont inent s . Moreove r , the mixing t ime of the atmo sphere
wi thin a hemi sphere i s only a few weeks and the inte rchange b e tween the
hemisphere s t ake s 6 - 1 2 months . C02 has a res idenc e t ime in the a tmosphere o f
3 - 4 years , s o i s reas onably we l l mixe d global ly .
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World C02 emi s s ions based on ene rgy growth rat e s ( s e e Tab l e 1 ) show that
there has b e en a s lowing in the upwar ds growth o f emi s s ions s ince 1 9 7 3 . In
1 9 8 1 , o f the total emi s s ion o f 5 . 3 GtC 44 % came from o i l , 3 8 % from coal , and
1 7 % from gas .

The produc t i on o f C02 d i ffers c ons i derably from country to c ountry . The
l arge s t quanti t i e s (based on 1 9 7 5 f igure s ) are produce d in the deve loped
count r i e s w i th a world average o f 1 . 2 tonne s C p e r p e r s on ( se e Tab l e 3 ) .

Dur ing the l as t c entury the c oncentra t i on o f c arbon dioxide in the

atmo sphere i ncreas e d from an e s t imate d 2 9 0 ppm in 1 8 6 0 ( measurements from
i c e c o r e s ) to 340 ppm in 1 9 8 0 . More accurate measur ements over the l a s t
2 5 y e a r s at the Mauna Loa Ob s e rvatory , Hawa i i , show a n average incre a s e of·
1 . 5 % p e r year ( s e e Fig . 4 ) w i th s e as on - dependent fluctuations . Moreover ,
there i s a l a t i tudinal diffe rence b e twe en ground-leve l C02 c oncentrat i ons ,
re fl e c t ing the l ocation of the main fo s s i l fuel C02 s our c e s in the nor thern
hem isphere ( s ee Fig . 5 ) . The hypo the t ical incre a s e o f the atmo spher i c C02
c onc entrat i on based on emi s s i ons due to fo s s i l fue l burning , is al s o given
in Fig . 4 . I t appe ars that only a propor t i on of the emi s s i on i s r e t a ined in
the atmo sphere ( i . e . the " a i rborne frac t i on " , AF) . The s iz e of AF depends on
how the to tal c arbon inventory is par t i t i oned among the o c e ani c , terres tr i al
and atmo spher i c p o o l s . Over the per iod 1 9 5 9-1 9 7 4 the AF was 5 6 % , whereas i t
was 5 9 % for the p e r iod 1 9 7 5 - 1 9 8 0 . I t i s as sume s that thi s inc r e a s e of AF
m ight be a caus ed by a reduc t i on o f the ab s o rp t i on c apac i ty of the oceans .

Referenc e s us ed in thi s chap te r : 1 , 5 , 18 , 2 0 , 3 0 , 44 , 54 , 6 9 .

2 . 2 . 2 . Other greenhous e gas e s

The e ar th ' s atmo sphere current ly c ontains " trace gas e s " wi th a tmo sphe r i c
l i fe t ime s that vary from much l e s s than an hour to s everal hundred years
( s e e Tab l e 4 ) . From a viewpo int of global c l imate e ffec t s , spe c i e s w i th
extremely shor t l i fe t ime s are unl ike ly to p l ay an important d i r e c t role .
Mo re p e r s i s tent trace gas e s , howeve r , may c ontr ibute to modi ficat i ons o f the
energy balance o f the earth-atmo sphere sys tem and amp l i fy the e s t imat e d C02
warming . Increas ing c oncentrations o f the s e gas e s are d i r e c tly or indi r e c t ly
a c ons equence o f human ac t ivi t i e s . Mos t o f the man-made trace gas e s are
l i s te d in Tab l e 4 ; the mos t important one s are b r i e fly d i s cus s e d b e l ow .

Nitrogen comp ounds

Whi l e a number of n i trogen c ontaining c ompounds are r e levant from a c l imat i c

p o int o f v i ew , the mo s t important i s N20 . N20 emi s s i ons resul t pr imar i ly
from b io logical den i tr i f i c a t ion proce s s e s in s o i l and in the o ce ans . The
glob al a tmos pher i c c oncentrat ion o f N20 has r i s en from an e s t imated
pre - indus trial value o f 2 8 5 ppb to 301 ppb in 1 9 8 0 . Over the 4 - ye ar p e r i od
1 9 7 6 - 1 9 8 0 the rate o f inc r e a s e in N20 c oncentra t i on was 0 . 2 % p e r year .
I ncreas ing future global food produc t i on w i l l r e quire increas ing us e of
fer t i l i s e r s adding further to atmo spher i c N20 .
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Me thane

P r inc ipal s ources of a tmosphe r i c me thane are ente r i c fermentat ion in

ruminant animal s , anae rob ic decompo s i tion o f organi c matter (e . g . re l e a s e
from organi c - r i ch s ediments be low wate r b o d i e s and r i c e paddie s ) , b i omas s
decompo s i t i on , natural gas l e akage , qui t e po s s ib ly produc t i on b y t e rm i t e s
and r e l e a s e o f me thane dur ing mine ral , o i l , and gas explorat i on and gas
transmi s s i on . The CH4 c oncentrat i on has approximat e ly doub l e d in the l ast
3 5 0 years w i th a greater rate o f increase in the las t c entury . The
c oncentra t i on increased globally by about 0 . 5 % p e r year b e tween 1 9 6 5 and
1 9 7 5 and by 1 - 2 % per year b e tween 1 9 7 8 and l ate 1 9 8 0 . I n 1 9 8 0 the
c oncentrat i on was about 1 . 6 5 ppm in the nor thern hemisphere , and about 6 %
l ower i n the s outhern hemisphere .

I n the troposphere the CH4 oxidation chain ini t i a t e d by the r e ac t ion w i th

hydroxyl radical (OH ) l e ads to s i gnif i c ant photochemical produc t i on o f CO ,
H2 and 03 :

CH4 + 402 --+ H20 + CO + H2 + 2 0 3 (ne t cyc l e ) (1 )

The initial react ion o f OH w i th CH4 :

CH4 + OH � CH3 + H20 (2 )

and the react ion o f OH wi th CO :

CO + OH --7 C02 + H (3 )

c ontro l s the global de s truc t ion of OH , the dominant oxi d i s ing spec i e s in the
troposphere . Re ac t i on (2 ) is such a dominant l o s s mechanism for CH4 that
more than 9 0 % of the global de s truc t ion o f CH4 o ccurs in the troposphere .
S o , CH4 and CO are c l o s e ly c oupled pho tochemically through OH . The dominant
s ink of atmo spher i c CH4 , OH , is thus affe c te d by increas e d l eve l s o f
troposphe r i c CO or o f CH4 i t s e l f . The r e fore , increas ing c oncentr a t i ons o f C O
due to fos s i l fue l ( incomp l e te c ombus t i on ) us age and ox i dation of
anthropogenic hydrocarbons i n the atmo sphe re , w i l l reduce the r a t e at whi ch
CH4 i s de s troye d .

Chlo r o fluor ocarbons

Chloro fluorocarbons (CFC ' s ) are ent i r e ly a produc t o f human ac t ivi ty , b e ing
p r e s ent in gas p ropel l e d spray c ans , r e fr i geration e quipment and insul ated
p ackaging mate r i al s . The s e chemicals c ame into maj o r use in the 1 9 6 0 ' s and
ini t ia l ly e xh ib i te d a rap i d growth (10 - 1 5 % p e r year ) . The glob a l emi s s ions
of the maj o r C FC's then dec l ined s omewhat from the mid - 1 9 7 0's through to
1 9 8 2 in part due to a ban on s ome none s s ential us age s (e . g . spray c ans ) of
C FC's and to adver s e e c onomic c ondi t i ons . Howeve r , the emi s s i ons increa s e d
s ign i f i c antly s ince 1 9 8 3 . Eas tern b l o ck c ount r i e s have apparently never
r e duc e d the ir produc t i on o f C FC ' s , s o world w i de us e i s now r i s ing , and i s
e xpected t o grow more becaus e o f the us e i n l e s s indus trial i s e d countr i e s .
When C FC's are r e l e a s e d to the atmo sphere , the i r inertne s s to mos t
bi o l o g ical p r o ce s s e s a l l ows them t o b e transported t o the s tr atosphe re ,
where they are b roken down by sunl i gh t . Liberated chl or ine c a talyt ical ly
des troys o zone .
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Ozone

The c l imat i c e ffec t s of change s in o z one ( 0 3 ) depend very s trongly on

whe ther thes e change s occur in the troposphere or s tratosphe re . There i s
s ome ob s e rvational evidence that nor thern hemi sphe re tropo sphe r i c o z one has
inc r e as e d by 0 . 8 - 1 . 5 % per year s ince about 1 9 6 7 , due to increas e s in
combus t ion re leas e s of NOx , C 0 2 , H2 and increas e d CH4 . In the s outhern
hemi sphere , g iven the smaller anthropogenic influenc e s , 0 3 doe s no t change
at a l l .

S trato spher i c o z one i s al s o thought t o b e sus ceptible t o p e rturb ing

influenc e s , inc luding man - made chloro - and chlorofluo rocarbons , increas ing
CH4 and N 2 0 c oncentrations and decreas e s in s tratosphe r i c t emperature due to
inc r e as ing C 02 . The s trato sphe r i c o z one changes l arge ly depend on the
a l t i tude , but c oncentrations are now about 1 2 . 5% greater at a l t i tude s from 0
to 1 2 km than as sumed pre - indus trial c oncentrat ions .

A p e rturbat i on o f the s trato spher i c oz one concentrations modulate s the so lar

and infrared fluxes to the tropo sphere , and thi s s o lar e ffec t would tend to
warm the surface . On the o ther hand 03 change s in the l ower atmo sphere p o s e
p o tent ial r i sks to air qua l i ty over the surface o f the globe .

Re ferenc e s us e d in this s e c t ion : 3 3 , 3 5 , 3 9 , 4 1 , 43 , 4 6 , 47 , 4 9 , 6 1 , 64 .

2 . 3 . The global c arbon cyc le

The c arb on cyc l e ( Fig . 6 ) invo lves numerous b iological , geologi c a l , phys i cal
and chemical proce s s es and c an roughly be divided into two ma in cyc le s , a
b io logical and a geo logical one . The ge ological cyc l e i s a r e l a t ive ly
long - t e rm cyc l e charac te r i s e d by s low pro c e s s e s , i . e . the r e l e a s e of C02
through rock weathe r ing and ult imate pre c ip i tat ion as c al c ium c arbonate .
S ince man s tart e d to burn fo s s il fue l the s low p ro ce s s e s have been
unbalance d by affe c t ing the maj or r e s e rvo i r .

The wor l dwide us e o f fos s i l fue l in 1 9 8 1 r e l e a s e d about 5 . 3 G t C to the

a tmo sphere as C 0 2 . Thi s figure s e ems very smal l c ompared to tho s e of the
amounts of c arbon e s t imated to be pres ent as organic and inorganic compounds
in the four maj or r e s e rvo i r s in the carbon cyc l e , i . e . 7 0 0 G t C in the
atmo sph g re , 2 , 6 00 G t C in the b i o sphere , 40 , 000 G t C in the o c e an and
6 5 x 10 G t C in the l i thosphe re ( i . e . the s o l id part of the ear th ) . Howeve r ,
t aking into account a natural and balance d exchange rate o f about 1 0 0 G tC
p e r year b e tween a tmo sphere and b i o sphere and b e tween a tmo sphere and o c e an ,
fo s s i l fue l burnt yearly repres ents about 5 % o f the natural exchange . About
6 0 % of the C 0 2 or iginat ing from burnt l i thosphe r i c c arbon i s r e t a ine d in the
a tmo sphere ; the o c e an is the maj or s ink for the re s t .

I n c ontras t , the b i o l ogical cycle i s charac t e r i s e d by very rap id proc e s s e s

and i s , in e s s ence , very short and there fore extremely s igni f i c ant . Nearly
a l l C 0 2 c arbon that i s as s imilated ( fixed ) by the b io sphere (i.e. the
p l ant s ) is ul t imat e ly , b iodegrade d by he tero troph i c organ isms and
sub s e quently re turns from the b i o sphere to the o ther maj or carbon
re s e rvo i r s . The b io logical cycle i s the refore e s s entially c lo s ed . S o lar
energy keep s the cyc l e go ing by providing the energy for the c arbon- fixing
p r o c e s s , i . e . photosynthe s i s .
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Contrary to the near cons tancy o f the fluxe s in the b i ological cycl e , one o f
the mo s t important r e s e rvo irs there in ( the land b i o ta , i . e . the l iving
o rgani sms on land , o f which the p l ants repres ent the maj or b i omas s ) has b een
affe c ted s ince man s tarted releas ing c arbon diox i de by defore s ta t i on and
expans ion of arab l e land .

2 . 3 . 1 Atmosphere - ocean interactions

18 3
The re s e rvo i r o f the wor l d ' s o c e ans repr e s ents a volume o f about 1 . 4xl0 m
water and ho l ds about 40 , 0 0 0 GtC ( th i s i s 'bout 5 7 t ime s the total
a tmosp� e r i c c arbon c ontent ) or on ave rage � 8 g/m . The c ontent var i e s from
2 2 g/m in c o l d s ur face water to 2 6 g/m in warm s ur face water and to
3
29 g/m in the deep - ocean .

The maj o r i ty o f the c arbon in the ocean i s pre s ent as an inorganic frac t ion ,
i . e . 3 9 , 000 G t C as d i s s o lved inorganic carbon ( DI G or C ) . The DIG i s
pre s ent as di s s o lved components o f the c arbon diox i de e qui l ibrium sys tem :
C02 , b i carbonate and c arbonate .

The r ema ining c arbon i s pre s ent as an organic frac t i on , o f whi ch only 1 . 5 %
i s f ixed in l iving organi sms , and the re s t i s dead o rganic mate r i al pre s ent
a s di s s olved organic carbon (DOC , about 1000 G tC ) , and parti culate organic
c arbon (POC , about 3 0 GtC ( s ee Fig . 6 ) .

The gro s s exchange of C02 b e tween atmo spher e and o c e an i s v e ry rap id ,

charac t e r i s e d by a flux of about 100 G t C per year e i ther way .
Thi s inte rac t ion shows the s trong regul ation o f the atmo spher i c C02 by the
o c e an . The natural s i tuat ion i s charac te r i s e d by a phys i c o - chemical
e qui l ibr ium . The pr inc ipal e ffec t o f adding C02 to the atmo sphe re i s the
tendency of the ocean to take up the exc e s s in orde r to r e ach a new
e qui l ib r ium wi th the atmo sphere . Al though the c arbon c ontent of the ocean i s
much gre ater than that o f the atmo sphere , the capac i ty o f the o c e an for C02
up take is l im i t e d ( s ee Appendix 1 ) . The abs o rp t i on of C02 by the o c e an i s
buffer e d by react i ons with d is s olved carbonate and b ic arbonate i ons . I n the
s ur face mixe d l aye r , the "buffer fac tor " increas e s w i th growing C02
c oncentrations ( se e Fig . 7 ) , and the c apac i ty of the ocean to ab s o rb the C02
adde d to the a tmosphere w i l l de creas e . Hence , the frac t i on of adde d C02
remaining in the atmo sphere will r i s e .

The c apac i ty o f the o c ean for C02 uptake i s thus a func t i on o f i ts

chem i s try ; the rate at whi ch thi s c apac i ty can be b rought into p lay i s ,
howeve r , a func t i on o f o c e an phys i c s . The s tr a t i f icat i on o f l ow - and
m id - l at i tude o c e ans is s tab le and c app e d by a warm surface lay e r that i s
approximate ly i n e qui l ib r ium w i th atmo spher i c C02 . Mos t o f the deep wate r s
o f the wor l d ' s o c e ans a r e formed in winte r in the Norwegian and Greenland
S eas and in the Wedde l l S e a . Here w inter cool ing increas e s the dens i ty o f
the s ur face wat e r s unt i l the s trat i ficati on o f the water c o l umn breaks down
and the deep s ourc e regions are renewed . Once forme d , the b o t tom waters flow
t o the s outh. The r es idence t ime o f deep water in the Atlanti c Ocean has
b e en e s t imated as 2 7 5 years , in the Pac i fi c Ocean about 6 00 years and in the
I nd i an Oce an about 3 3 5 years . Thus , al though the abs orp t ive c apab i l i ty o f
the o c e an i s l arge , i t i s not rap i d due t o i t s s low c irculation .

The cyc l e of o rganic c arb on wi thin the o c e an i s bas e d o n two ma in p roc e s s e s ,

i . e . p r o duc t i on and de compos i tion o f organic matte r . F ixat ion o f C02 into
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organic t i s sue s by the pho to syn thetic act ivi ty o f phytop l ankton occur s only
in o c e an surface water ( the euphotic z one ) . Thi s i s the z one where l ight
energy for pho tosynthes i s and growth i s no t l im i te d , s o that the produc t i on
o f organic mate r ial i s greater than the breakdown . In the trop i c s thi s z one
is l im i t e d to the upper 100 m of the s ea , whi l e in temperate c l imates i t i s
b e twe en 2 0 and 5 0 m i n summ e r and z ero i n winte r . I n deeper water s , the
apho t i c z one , there is a ne t l o s s o f organic mat e r i a l , s ince b r e akdown
exce e ds produc tion .

Organic production and breakdown of o rganic material c an c onveniently

pre s ented a s :
produc t i on
C02 + H20 CH20 + 02 ( 4)
breakdown
C02 in (4 ) rep r e s ents the to tal d is s olved inorganic c arbon c ontent of the
water , and CH20 i s organic matte r . Oxygen i s produce d in thi s proce s s and
the removal of C02 concurrently rai s e s the pH . Al though the total b i omas s of
the b i ota is low r e l ative to that on l and ( s ee Fig . 6) and the annual
produc t iv i ty i s approximate ly one half that on l and , the turnover (i.e.
amount of c arbon f ixed per b i omas s uni t ) i s very high . S ome 9 0 % o f the
organic matter formed i s consumed by graz ing o rganisms w i thin the eupho t i c
z one . The remainde r p lus the mater ial excreted b y graz ing organisms and dead
animal s fal l through the water co lumn and is subj e c t to oxidative
de c ompos ition (breakdown) , whereby C02 is r e l e a s e d ( eqn 4 ) . The maj o r i ty i s
de comp o s e d i n the upper 1000 m o f the wate r column ; d i s s olut ion o f CaC03
( i . e . c al c ium c arbonate , the main consti tuent o f she l l s ) oc curs in deeper
wate r , stimulated by lowered oxygen concentrat i on and pH due to inc reas ing
C02 leve l s . The di s s olved c a l c ium c arbonate rais e s the t o tal C02 o f the deep
water further and increas e s the alka l inity ( s ee App endix 1 ) . The maj ority of
the C02 therefore r emains avai l ab l e in the o ceanic cyc le .

Effe c t s of increas ing atmo spher i c C 0 2 o n the C 0 2 c oncentrat i on in the ocean

are di fficul t to measure . The mo s t s ens i t ive measurement to de t e rmine thi s
i s p C 0 2 ( i . e . the pres sure o f C 0 2 gas that would be found in a sma l l vo lume
o f a i r that had been al lowe d to r each e qui l ibrium w i th a large volume of
s e awater ) . From the s e measur ements it is c l e ar pC02 in o c e an surface wate r
i s r i s ing , w i th a r a t e comparable to the atmo spher i c incre as e . Howeve r , as a
c ons e quence of the o c e anic buffer ing a 1 0 % change in pC02 produc e s only a 1 %
change i n the o c e anic C 0 2 concentrat ion ( s ee Appendix 1 f o r de tai l s ) . The
o c e anic C02 concentrat ion has increased 1 - 2 % over th i s l a s t c entury . Thi s
increase w i l l no t induce s igni ficant change s in p r imary product i on ( i . e .
growth o f algae ) , a s C02 i s already avai l ab l e in exce s s . Concurrent s l ight
decreas e in pH ( at tached as 0 . 06 pH uni t s ) w i l l not be measurab l e e ffec t , as
the o c e an sur face pH var i e s b e tween 8 . 0 and 8 . 3 . Fur the r increas e s of the
C02 c onc entrat i on w i l l certa inly l e ad to de tectab l e e ffec t s on pH .

I f the increas ing a tmospher i c C02 c ause s s igni f icant change s in the global
c l imate , indire c t e ffec ts on pr imary produc t i on c an be exp e c te d . If there
were to b e l o c al ly increas ing c l oudine s s then thi s reduc e s the s o lar e nergy
r eaching the ocean and cons e quently a l s o the pr imary produc ti on . Any warming
of the upper l ayer s would increase the formation of s table water mas s e s ,
thereby reduc ing ver t ical mixing . The s ub s e quent dep l e t i on o f nutr ients in
the eupho t i c z one will caus e a decreas e in p r imary produc t ion .
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I f C02 i s added to the o c e an surface , the pH decre as e s and the tendency for
d i s s o lut ion of carbonate mine rals ( e . g . c alc i t e and aragoni te ) , e i ther in
b o ttom s ediment s or suspended in the wate r c o lumn , inc reas e s , the r eby
increas ing b o th the alkal in i ty and the to tal D I C ( s e e a l s o App endix 1 ) .
Howeve r , CaC03 i s a l s o a maj or cons t i tuent o f she l l s o f calcareous o rgani sms
and c o ral s . Part icularly in near - shore areas the s e organi sms wi l l be exp o s e d
to wate rs r i ch in C 0 2 and w i th a low pH . D i s s o luti on o f shel l s and corals
and s ub s e quently local but mas s ive deaths o f organi sms on a local s c ale i s
the r e fore not unreal i s t ic . I f d i s s o lution o f c arbonate s o c cur s , the
alkal ini ty and C02 content increas e and the ne t e ffec t o f the alkal ini ty
increase gene rates an increas ing cap ac i ty of the o c e an for C02 up take . Thi s
feedback mechani sm might have reduc ing e ffe c t s on a r i s ing a tmospher i c C02
l eve l , al though probab ly not in the shor t - t e rm , a s there are kine t i c l im i ts
and contro l s on c arbonate di s s olution .

Referenc e s us e d in thi s s e c t i on : 3 , 6 , 7 , 1 1 , 2 2 , 3 6 , 42 , 5 6 , 6 0 .

2 . 3 . 2 . Atmo sphere - terre s tr ial b io sphere intera c t ions

The r e s e rvo ir of c arbon in l iving p l ant material ( phytomas s ) in the l and

b iota was about 6 00 GtC in 1 9 8 0 . Compared to thi s , the organic c arbon f ixed
in animal s ( z oomas s ) and microorgani sms i s negl igib ly small ( ab out 8 G t C ) .
The to tal carb on re tained in s o i l s and in dead o rganic ma te r i al has b e en
e s t imated globally at about 2 000 G tC ( s e e F i g . 6 ) . The b io sphere can be
r oughly subdivided hor i z onta l ly into s ix e c osys tems ( s e e T ab l e 5) and
ve rt i c a l ly into l e ave s , branche s , s temwood , roo ts , l i tter , young humus and
s tab le s o i l c arbon . By far the large s t b io t i c r e s e rvo ir i s e s t imated to be
in fore s t sys tems , whi ch are a l s o both the mo s t ac t ive and vulnerab l e part
o f the b io ta . The expans ion o f human populations and change s in l and us e in
r e c ent c entur i e s have b e en acc ompanied by an almo s t continuous de c l ine in
the area of fore s t ( s ee Tab l e 5 ) . Dur ing the pas t c entury the r e duc t ion in
the mas s of vege tation ( de fores tat i on ) and rep lacement w i th agr icul tural
c rop s and urban deve lopment re sul ted in a cons i de rab le reduc t i on o f the
c arbon s tored in terres tr i al b i o ta . The to tal ne t r e l e a s e of c arbon from the
b i o t a b e tween 1 8 6 0 and 1 9 8 0 has been e s t imated as 1 8 0 GtC . In r ec ent ye ars
the rate o f r e l e a s e has dropped s l i ghtly , a s a c ons e quence o f ne t
accumula t i on o f c arbon in the fore s ts o f Nor th Ame r i ca and Europe ( as re sul t
o f renewed growth o f fore s ts and affo r e s tat ion ) .

The cyc le of c arbon b e tween b i o sphere and a tmo sphere is in e s s ence a

b io logical one , bas e d on f ixat ion o f C02 by p l ants w i th the a i d o f s o l ar
energy ( i . e . pho tosynthe s i s ) and produc t ion o f C02 through r e s p i ra t i on and
de c omp o s i t i on ( e qn 4 ) . The dr iving input of an e co sys tem is the ne t pr imary
p r o duc t i on , the increase in b i omas s ( NPP ) :

NPP - G P - R (5)
A
where GP i s the gros s produc t i on , the t otal pho tosynthes is o f the sys tem and
R i s the resp i rat ion of autotrophs , the green p l ant s . Four , ve rtically
A
arrange d , c omponents o f the b i o sphere c ontr ibute to the NPP , i . e . leave s ,
branche s , s tems and roo ts . E s t imates o f NPP for the d i fferent e c o sys tems are
g iven in Tab l e 5 .
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The ne t flux o f carbon b e tween the atmo sphere and any e co sys tem i s
det e rmined by the balance b e tween gro s s produc t i on and resp irat i on o f a l l
l iv ing organisms :

NEP - GP - (R +
A
�) (6)

where NEP i s the net eco sys tem produc ti on , the ne t flux o f carbon into or
from an e c o sys tem and � is the r e sp irat ion o f the heterotrophs , . inc luding
a l l animals and dec omposers . Thus , R + Ru repres ent the natural flux o f C02
from the terre s tr ial e co sys t ems to �e a£mo sphere . The p r imary evidence of
the importance of the terre s tr ial b io t a for the C02 content o f the
atmo sphe re is shown by the short - t e rm o s c i l l a t i ons o f a tmospher i c C02 , _

r e f l e c t ing the s easonal fluctuat ions in pho to synthe t ic and r e s p iratory ·

ac t ivi t i e s o f l iving organi sms .

The NEP tends to b e z ero in a s table e c o sys tem , but i s p ermanently pos i t ive
when human dis turbance is pre s ent . Es t imates of the to tal NPP for al l
t e r re s trial e co sys tems vary b e tween 5 0 - 6 0 G t C per year ; the mean t o tal plant
r e sp iration of all e cosys tems ( R ) is about e qual to NPP; so , about 5 0 % of
A
GP is needed by the p l ants for resp i ration ( R ) . The he t ero trophic
A
resp irat ion (Ru) i s 3 5 - 50 G t C p e r year . Thes e fluxe s charac ter i s e the
natural and we f l-balanc ed exchange rate o f about 1 0 0 G t C per year b e tween
t e rr e s t r i al b io ta and atmo sphere .

Human inte r ference ( cutting , burning , sh i f t ing o f cult ivat ion and changing
of e co sys tems ) has no t only large e ffec ts on the amount of carbon s tored in
the eco sys tems ( the r e s e rvo i r ) , but al s o affe c t s the fluxe s . There has been
a ne t r e l e a s e o f carbon s ince at least 1 8 6 0 . Unt i l about 1 9 6 0 , the annual
r e l e a s e was gre ater than the release o f carbon from fos s i l fue l s . The to tal
ne t re l eas e from terre s t r i a l e cosys tems s ince 1 8 6 0 is e s t imated to have been
1 8 0 GtC ( w i th a r ange o f e s t imate s o f 1 3 5 - 2 2 8 G t C ) . The e s t imated ne t
r e l e a s e o f c arbon in 1 9 8 0 was 1 . 8 - 4 . 7 G t C , from 1 9 5 8 - 1 9 8 0 the r e l e a s e o f C
was 3 8 - 7 6 G tC . The range s re flec t the differenc e s among vari ous e s t imat e s
for fore s t b iomas s , s o i l carbon , and agr icul tural clear ing .

Effe c t s o f increas ing atmosphe r ic carbon on terres tr ial b i o ta can be

e xp e c t e d to b e caus ed direc tly by higher C02 concentrat i ons and/or
indirec tly by changed environmental cond i t i ons due to the h igher C02
conc entrations . Among the fac tors affec t ing gro s s pho tosynthe s i s , l ight ,
mo i s ture , avai l ab i l i ty of nutr i ents ( part icul arly n itrogen and pho spho rus )
and C02 are the mos t important .

Mo s t informa t i on r e l a t ive to C02 e ffects on p l ants i s b as e d on dat a from

sho r t - te rm exp e r iments under contro l l e d condi t i ons . Al though cons i derab l e
var i ab i l i ty exi s ts in respons e s o f var ious spec i e s , a n increas ing growth and
rate of pho to synthes i s is apparent and the fo l lowing tentat ive
general i sat i ons have b e en made in the l iterature r e s ul t ing mainly from
e xper iments in glas shous e s:

The r e spons e s are gre ater in p l ants w i th inde t e rminate growth ( e . g .

co t ton , s oybean ) than in p l ants w i th de te rminate growth ( e . g . corn , mai z e ,
s orghum , s unflowe r ) .
P l ants wi th an inde term inate growth hab i t have an infinite growth
p o t ent ial and are the mo s t produc t ive , whe reas the de terminate p l ants
comp le te the i r l ife cyc l e by p r imary growth w i th the produc t ion o f a
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comp l e te p l ant .

The r espons e to h i gher l eve l s o f C02 i s greater in C3 p l ants (e . g.

s oybe an , s unfl ower , tomato , l e ttuce , cucumber , ve lve t le a f , wheat ,
sugar - b e e t , p otato , r ice , t ree s ) than in C4 p l ants ( e . g . corn , s orghum ,
m i l l e t , sugar - cane ) .
In C 3 p l ants p r imary photosynthe t ic carbon fixat i on occurs via the enzyme
r ibul o s e d ipho sphate carboxylas e ( RuDP ) and in C4 p l ants via
pho spho - enol - pyruvate ( PEP ) . The h i gher carboxylati on e fficiency o f C4
p l ants has an advantage in water use e fficiency and the r e fore in
exp l o i t ing arid environments .

The l arge s t r espons e i s in se edl ings ; in o lder p l ants the r espons e

dec reas e s or ceas e s . Increas ing C02 concentration w i l l ther e fo re p robab ly
have the leas t e ffec t on growth of p l ants in natural for e s t s ( dominat ing
the b i o tic part o f the carbon cycl e ) , where l i ght , water and mineral
nutr i t ion already l im i t the rate o f photo s ynthe s is . Howeve r , recent
inc reas e s in the growth o f s ome h i gh - al t i tude trees ( me asured as
inc reas ing r ing width ) m i ght be as c r ib e d to inc reas ing C02 concentrat ions ,
al though the d i s cus s ion on the caus al re l a t ionship i s no t ye t ended .

- Water us e e ff i c i ency ( ra t i o o f C f ixed to water consumed ) increa s e s for

a l l spe c i e s w i th increas ing C02 concentrat i ons , but part icul arly for C4
p l ants . The r e fore , under cond i t i ons of s ign i ficant water - s tre s s ,
cons ide rab ly gre ater proportional inc reas e s in p l ant p roduct ivi ty occur .

- Early dep l e t ion o f nut r i ents caus e s a shortening o f the growing s e a s on

( only in C4 p l ants ) and a s ignificant increas e o f the CfN r a t i o in C 3
p l ants . A s N - poor p l ant t i s sue decomp o s e s more s lowly , nut r ient cyc l ing
rat e s w i l l then be affe c te d in ecosys tems .

Effe c t s on ecosys tems are de termine d by the s tab i l i ty of the sys tem . In
s tab l e ( c l imax ) e c o sys tems (e . g. undi s turbed fore s ts ) in whi ch gro s s
pho to synthe s i s i s e quated by to tal r e s p i ra t i on ( NEP � 0 ) , the NEP m i ght
b e c ome pos i t ive depending on to what extent o ther fac tors are l im i t ing ( e . g .
nutr i ents ) . In deve lop ing ecosys tems , the NEP i s p ermanently p o s i t ive and
w i l l increase unt i l a new ( s tab l e ) e qui l ib r ium i s r eached . Incre as e of NEP
w i l l b e greater whe re the supply o f nutrients is greate r , e . g . in h i ghly
p r o duct ive agr icul tural sys tems . Howeve r , here the s torage o f carbon i s only
a sma l l frac t ion of the annual product i on .

Re ference s us e d in thi s s ecti on : 5 , 10 , 1 5 , 2 2 , 24 , 2 8 , 3 7 , 4 5 , 6 7 , 6 8 , 6 9 .

2 . 3 . 3 . Carbon cycle modelling

Climate model s are us e d to inve s t i gate the cl imat ic r e spons e (e . g .

temp erature , precip i tati on ) to change s o f the atmospher i c C02 concentra t i on
( in fact the " ai rborne fracti on" , AF). C arbon cycl e model s ( CCM ' s ) are the
main t o o l for predicting the future C02 l eve l s as a funct i on of the total
C02 emi s s i ons . To cal culate the se l eve l s all p roce s s e s in which C02 i s
exchanged have t o b e known and quant i fi e d , i . e . proce s s es i n which C02 i s
exchanged , s tored and converted b e twe en the atmosphe re , t e rre s tr i al
b i o sphere and ocean .
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In the l as t few year s CCM ' s have become mor e s oph i s t i cated . Ther e are now
s everal dynamic , proces s - or i ented mode l s whi ch repre s ent for examp le
accumul ation and decay of dead vege tat ion , proce s s ing o f c arbon in soils and
humus , and chem i s try , phys i c s and b iology of the o c e an . Pub l i shed mode l s
have b e en cal ibrated to agr e e w e l l w i th the change in atmo spher i c C02
c oncentrat i on ob s erved unti l now . However , no mode l has b e en properly
val i dated agains t all trends and al l data on emi s s ion rates . The mo s t
important unc e rtaint i e s are :

Future p aths o f energy and C02 emi s s ions .

Many o f the early analys e s have produced e s timat e s o f future emi s s ions and
c oncentra t i ons from extrapolat ive t e chnique s bas e d on p r e s ent and pas t
emi s s i ons .
In an attempt to addr e s s uncer taint i e s , a s econd generation o f s tudie s ,
employing s cenar i o analys i s has ari sen , whi ch al s o t ake into account
future e c onomic and energy developments . However , there are s t i l l a number
o f important unce rtaint i e s i n the mo de l , e . g . rate o f p opulat i on growth ,
the ava i l ab i l i ty and c o s t o f fo s s il fue l s , e tc . ( s ee a l s o 3 . 1 . ) .

- D i ffus ion rate in the ocean .

Mo s t mode l s repres ent s ome featur e s o f ocean chemis t ry qui te we l l , but
they repres ent o c e an phys i c s by s impl e ver t i cal di ffus i on c o e ffic ients ,
s ome t ime s r e l at e d to s tr at i ficat ion phenomena . The s e one - dimens i onal
ve rt ical mode l s are viewe d w i th cons i derab l e s cep t i c i sm by phys ical
o c e ano graphe r s .

- Rate of defores tation and l and r e c l amat ion .

There i s dis agre ement about whe ther s i gnificant renewed growth in s ome
areas and s t imul ation of p l ant growth by increas ing a tmo spher i c C02 will
take p lace and counter l o s s e s from de fo r e s tat ion .

- S t imul ation o f growth by C02 .

Mo s t c arbon cyc l e mode l s in e s t imat ing b io t i c re spons e have depende d on·

the s o - c a l l e d b e ta ( � ) fac tor , a measure of how much p l ant growth

increas e s as a resul t o f a tmo spher i c C02 c oncentrat ion .
The nume r ic a l value o f � i s no t known accurately at p r e s ent , but i s s t i l l
o f gre a t importance a s a p ar ame t e r repr e sent ing the r e spons e . Howeve r , it
has b een argued that the us e o f the P - fac tor should be replaced by
s ep arate analys e s of the e ffec ts of change s in the area of fores t and
p o tent i al change s in NPP c aus ed by b o th inc re a s e d a tmospher ic C02 and
change s in c l imate .

Re ferenc e s us e d in thi s s e c t ion : 9 , 1 5 , 2 1 , 2 2 , 4 5 .

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3 . S CENARIOS AND CLIMATE MODELLING

3 . 1 . C02 emi s s i ons and future ener gy demand

I t is general ly accepted that the increas ing concentrat i on of C02 in the

atmo sphere i s p r imar i ly de t e rmined by the combus t i on of fos s i l fue l s . In
order to e s t imate future quant i t ie s , it is firs t neces s ary to deve l op
p icture s o f the future us e o f fos s il fuel s and then to us e thes e s cenar i o s ,
in conj uncti on w i th carbon cycle mode l s , to calculate the a tmosphe r ic C02
concentrat ions .

Unde r s tandab ly , many pre - 1 9 7 5 s tudi e s as sumed that future ener gy growth
rates would be e quival ent to the his tor ical average of 4 . 5 % per year .
However , i t i s now acknowle dged that the " C02 commun i ty " shoul d make b e t t e r
us e o f the mo s t recent s cenar ios in which world energy consump ti on i s
chi e fly de t e rmine d b y economic and s ocio - pol it i cal force s . Mo s t recent
e s t imat e s from such s ource s as the US Environmental Pro tect ion Agency ( EPA ) ,
the I nternat i onal Ins t i tute for App l i e d Sys tems Analys i s ( I IASA) , the
Interna t i onal Energy Agency (lEA) and the US Nat ional Academy o f Science s
show that , b a s e d o n calculated future C 0 2 emi s s ions , pre - indus trial
atmo sphe ric concentrations could doub l e ( i . e . p a s s 6 0 0 ppm) s ome t ime
be tween 2 040 and 2 0 8 0 ( s ee F i g . 8 ) , the range re flect ing the uncertaint i e s
w i th r e gard to future growth and energy deve lopments .

By comb ining e s t imates o f energy demand and fuel mix , C02 emis s i ons can b e
e s t imate d . In F i g . 2 a number of long r ange C 0 2 proj ect ions a r e pre s ented .
E s t imated ave rage annual rate s o f incre a s e of C02 emi s s i ons unti l 2 0 3 0
generally range from 1 to 3 . 5 % . Es t imated annual emi s s i ons r ange from
7 to 1 3 G tC in the year 2 000 and , w i th few excep t i ons , from 10 and 3 0 G t C in
2 0 3 0 . The US Nat i onal Re s earch Council ( NRC ) forecas t in 1 9 8 3 that the
annual increas e woul d be about 1 . 6 % to 2 0 2 5 and about 1% thereafter compared
with an average growth over the pas t 120 years o f 3 . 5 % . The maj o r reasons
for the lower rate are , acco rding to the NRC , an e s t imated s lower growth o f
the glob al economy , further cons ervat ion and a t endency t o s ub s t i tute
non - fos s i l fue l s for fo s s i l fue l s . ( s ee App endix 2 for a discus s ion o f the
NRC Report ) .

The energy s cenar i o s deve loped by Group P lanning g ive e s t imat e s for C02
emi s s i ons in the l ower p art of the r ange for a numb e r of reas ons . In the
f i r s t ins tance , global energy intens i ty has b e en fall ing for many years .
F i gure 9 shows that in the USA the fall has been continuous s ince the
1 9 2 0's . S ince 1 9 7 3 , two change s have occurred : o i l intens i ty , which had been
r i s ing , b egan to fal l , and the decl ine in energy intens i ty acce l er a te d .

Four factors l i e b ehind the fal l in intens i ty : firs tly a shift in deve loped
country econom i e s from heavy indus t ry to· le s s energy - consuming l i ght
indus t ri e s and s e rvice s ; s econdly , the introduct i on of new techno l o g i e s and
proce s s e s which b o th directly and indirectly , consume l e s s energy ; thirdly ,
the deve lopment o f product s ( cars and r e f r i gerators , for example ) whi ch are
more e nergy - e fficient , and f inally , consumers have changed the i r b ehavi our
p a t t e rns to reduc e ene rgy consump t ion as they have become more aware of the
co s t o f energy . Wh i l e the l as t of the s e i s in s ome s ens e revers ib l e as co s ts
decl ine , the f i r s t three are s tructural and are unl ike ly to be reve r s e d .
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In the future , as portrayed in the Group scenar i o s , the intens i ty cont inue s
i t s downward cour s e . Indexed to 1 9 7 3 - 100 , the energy intens i ty in the OEGD
c ountr i e s is e s t imate d as 47 ( Next Wave ) or 5 7 ( D iv i ded World) w i th a
p robab l e range o f 4 5 - 7 5 . The Next Wave scenar i o s e e s a rap id take - up of
technology promo t ing a more rap i d fall in intens i ty . Howeve r , thi s is
outwe i ghed by s trong economic growth and hence a r e l a t ive ly large increase
in energy demand . In D ivide d Worl d , on the o ther hand , e nergy intens i ty
decl ine s more s l owly but economic growth i s al so lower s o tha t , overal l ,
energy demand i s le s s than in the Next Wave .

The impact o f new technology i s much le s s in the Les s Developed Countr i e s

( LOG ' s ) whe r e the capacity to introduce energy e fficien t e quipment and t o
app ly energy cons e rvation i s much l es s . In thes e c ountr i e s , ene rgy
intens i t ie s are s t i l l r i s ing although a t a lower rate as technol o gy i s
t r ans fe rred from the deve loped world . I n p a r t thi s r i s e i s due to the
deve lopment proce s s - the introduct ion of the heavy indus t r i e s the countr ies
thems e lve s ne ed and partly the r e i s the move o f energy demanding
indus t r i e s from deve loped to develop ing countr i e s .

The world energy demands in the year 2 0 0 5 in the two scenar i o s are ,
r e spect ive ly . New Wave - 2 0 9 Mbdoe (mill ion bar r e l s p e r day o i l e quipment )
and D ivided Wor l d . 1 9 3 Mbdoe . At the s ame t ime , the probab l e ranges are
1 7 8 - 2 2 0 Mbdoe and the pos s ib l e range s are 1 5 8 - 240 Mbdoe .

Whi l e ove rall energy intens i ty i s an important var iab l e in e s t imat ing the
future product i on o f carbon dioxide , a s econd factor i s the compe t i tion
be tween d i fferent fue l s i n the maj or marke ts , i n part icul ar , the r e l a t ive
importance o f the non - fo s s i l fue l s such as hydro and nuclear . The marginal
energy s ource s , w ind , waves , hydrogen , e tc . , are unl ike ly to make s uffici ent
contr ibuti ons to have any s e rious e ffect on C02 l eve l s , nor i s any l arge
move away from hydrocarbon fue ls in the transport marke t expected and
cons e quently change s will r e late to underb o i l e r fue l s and e lectr ici ty
generat ion . Coal i s expecte d to dominate the large indus t r i al under - bo i ler
marke t w i th gas and electr ici ty becoming the maj or e ne r gy s ource s a t the
comme rcial and dome s t ic leve l s . Coal and nucle ar w i l l be the chi e f fue ls
for e lectr i c i ty gene rat ion . Only in the l ong term is a shi ft to o ther ene rgy
s ource s l ike ly to occur . Howeve r , as the amount o f C02 emi tted p e r uni t of
ene rgy d i ffer s cons i derably ( s ee Table 2 ) for the d i f fe rent fos s i l fue l s ,
future emi s s i ons no t only depend on the glob al energy consump t ion but also
on the re lat ive p roportions o f the fos s il energy s ource s ( s ee F i g . 3 ) .

On the b as i s o f the demand e s t imate s from the indivi dual fue l s in e ach
s cenari o the C02 emi s s ions c an be c alculate d . The s e are g iven in Tab l e 6.

An important s ource o f ener gy o ften i gnored because o f the d i ff i cul ty of

measurement , i s the non - commercial energy ( NGE ) : Woo d , c rop r e s i due s , animal
and human was te s burned by the poore s t members of s oci e ty for hea ting and
c o ok ing . The populat ion of the LOG ' s i s approximat e ly 3. 6 b i l l ion , one
thi r d o f whom depend on NGE . By 2 0 0 5 the LOG p opula t i on w i l l have r i s en to
5 . 3 b i l l i on (UN e s t imate ) and al though NGE cannot r i s e pro rata becaus e of
the cons traints on availab i l i ty , none the les s there w i l l be an increase and
thi s , based on e s t imates developed by the FAO , i s included in Tab l e 6.

In the next century , the world energy p a t t e rn can only be gue s s e d . A key
feature , howeve r , is that b ecaus e of techno log ical change there w i l l be a
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w i der var i e ty o f energy s ource s for exp l o i tat i on than at present . Howeve r ,
no s ingle new e nergy s ource w i l l be ab le to mee t more than 1 0 % o f the
wor l d ' s energy supply and coal wil l p robably be the lar ge s t s ingl e s ource o f
hydrocarbon b a s e d energy . In addi t i on to the main s cenar i o s wh ich extend
only to the year 2 0 0 5 , s ome s tudie s have b e en made w i thin Group P lanning on
the p o s s ib l e us e of energy in the year 2 0 5 0 . Bas ed on s ome hero ic
as s ump t ions no t only o f economic factors but als o s o fter i s sues such as
indivi dual l ife s tyle s and the role o f government , three pro to - sce nari o s have
b e en devel op e d and from the s e pos s ib l e C02 emi s s ions can be calculated .
The s e are at the very bo t tom o f the span o f e s t imat e s made by o ther
ins t i tutions and range from 10 to 11 . 5 GtC p e r annum .

The re are , of cours e enormous uncer tainti e s at thi s - d i s tance in t ime

surrounding no t only the fue l consump t i on but al s o the spl i t of energy
s ource s b e tween fos s i l and non fo s s i l fue l s . I t may b e the cas e that large
increas e s in the di rect us e o f s o l ar energy , indirect s o l ar such as wind or
wave energy and in nucle ar ene rgy w i l l occur as a re sul t o f unfore s e en
techno l ogical deve lopments .

In the l i ght of the pos s ible e ffects of an increase in greenhous e gas e s , it

i s important t o examine the l ike ly pol i t ical respons e s t o expre s s i ons o f
envi ronmental concern . Awarene s s o f envi ronmental mat t e r s i s much s tronger
now than it was only a few decade s ago . At pres ent , the focus is on aci d
r a in and nuclear energy . Wh i l e oppo s i t ion t o nucl e ar i s s trong in the USA ,
Aus tra l i a and s ome European countr i e s , i t i s pos s ib l e that percep t ion of a
s e r ious environmental threat could s wing op�n�on away from fo s s i l fue l
combus t i on and l e ad to a r evival of inte re s t in cons e rva t i on , renewab l e
s ource s and particul arly in nuclear energy . Of cours e , such a movement woul d
be s t i l lb o rn i f the re we re to be any further accidents o f the Three M i l e
I s l and , S e l l af i e l d or Tsj e rnobyl type .

The p rob lem i s that no obvious global s o lut ion i s p r e s ently conce ivab l e
which would r e s ul t in a maj or reduct ion in the r a t e o f increa s e o f
atmo spheric C02 . A r eport i s sued b y the US Environmental Pro tect i on Agency
( EPA) in l ate 1 9 8 3 ( s e e Appendix 2 ) conclude d that only draconian measures
such as a global ban on coal combus t ion could have any s ign i ficant e ffect .
S ince such act i ons are ne i ther economical ly or p o l i t ical ly feas ible ,
individual countr i e s should b e urged to s tudy ways o f adap t ing to the
inev i tab l e r i s e in temperature . The NRC report r e fe rre d to above , which was
pub l i shed at the s ame t ime , i s l e s s p e s s imi s t ic in that i t b e l i eve s that
s trate g i e s such as s ubs tant ial taxation o f fos s i l fue l s m i ght be e ffect ive .

Re fe r ences us e d in thi s s ection : 1 7 , 2 1 G roup S cenar i o s .

3 . 2 . Projections of non - C 0 2 gre enhous e gas e s

Change s in atmo sph e r ic concentrat ions o f s everal infrared ab s orb ing gas e s ,
b e s i de s C02 , r e s ul t from human act ivi t i e s . Proj ect ions o f future emi s s ions
o f the s e trace gas e s are mos tly at a more p r im i t ive s tage than are the C02
p roj ect i ons , as they are usual ly based on as sump t ions of l ine ar increase o r
exponent ial growth r e l a t ive t o deve lopment in recent years .

Recently , calculat ions have b e en app l i e d to proj ect the concentrat ion of
e ach g a s speci e s . The fo l lowing data have b een us ed :
- 1 9 8 0 atmospheric concentrations and recent trend data ,
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- nature of s ource s ( man - made , natural , e tc . ) ,

- p roj e cted growth in natural as we l l as man - made s ource s due to expected
human act ivi t i e s over the next 5 0 years , and
- a tmospher ic l ifet ime s of the speci e s .

The r e sulting e s t imates for the year 2 0 3 0 are pres ented in Tab le 4 . It
appears that by 2 0 3 0 atmospher ic CFC ' s may increase by a factor o f 10 , the
chlorocarbons by a factor of 3 and the ni trogen compounds and hydrocarbons
by 2 0 % and 6 0 % , re spect ively . Thes e e s t imate s were o f cour s e made wi thout
tak ing into account the e ffects of pos s ib l e counte rmeasures to r educe
emi s s i ons .

Re ferences us e d in thi s s ection: 1 6 , 3 3 , 3 5 , 3 9 , 41 , 43 , 46 , 47 , 4 9 , 5 7 ,

61 , 64 .

3 . 3 . Temperature and cl imatic change s

The typ ical approach to under s tanding the re lat ionship b e tween a tmo sphe ric
C02 and temperature has been the deve lopment of increas ingly comp l ex mode ls
o f the geophys ical condi t ions that produce global cl imate . S everal typ e s of
mathemat ical mode l s have been deve loped d iffer ing in comprehens ivenes s w i th
re gard to tre atment of the cl imate sys tem components . Individual mode l s can
be b roadly clas s i f i e d as e i ther thermodynamic ( EBM ' s , e nergy balance , and
RCM ' s , radiat ive - convect ive mode l s , b o th accentuat ing the predict i on of
temperature ) or hydrodynamic (predicting b o th the t emperature and the mo t ion
fie l ds , and the i r mutual interact ions ) models . The l as t catego ry include s
the now w i de ly favoured " three d imens ional " Gene ral C i rcula t i on Mode l s
( GCM ' s ) . A n e w mode l hierarchy i s formed b y coup l ing a tmo spher ic GCM ' s w i th
di fferent ocean and s e a ice mode l s .

The s tandard r e ference value for compar ing alternative mode l s i s �T ( the
globally ave rage d temperature incre a s e due to doubled C02 ) . The ra� ge of
sur face warming s imulated by the group s EBM ' s and RCM ' s for doub l e d C02 i s
in remarkab l e agreement , i . e . 1 . 3 - 3 . 3°C . In compar ing r e sul ts ob tained by
EBM ' s the h i gh and low value s are usual ly excluded as the devi at ion i s
ascr ibe d t o the us e o f mode l s that r e quire an energy balance for the e ar th ' s
surface , rather than for the ent ire earth - atmosphere cl imate sys tem . The
main proponent o f the surface energy balance mode l i s S . I ds o o f the US
Water Cons ervati on laboratory . On the bas i s o f emp ir ical obs e rvat ions of
cl imatic change in Arizona and me asurements o f s o lar radiat ion , he concluded
that �T is 0 . 2 5°C , i . e . an order of magni tude le s s than that p r edicted by
the o th � r mode l s . Thi s controversy wi thin the mode l l ing commun i ty i s
fundamental and wil l cont inue .

The r ange o f s urface warming s imulated by the GCM ' s i s s omewhat l arger than
that o f the purely thermodynamic mode l s , name ly 1 . 3 - 3 . 9°C . For thi s
comp ar i s on calcul ations base d on s e a surface temperature/sea i ce s imulat ions
were excluded from cons i de rat ion , as the s e show a calculated p re s ent
temperature l ower than the p r e sently obs e rved temperature .

None of the above ment ione d computa t i ons take the trace gas e ffects into
account . The only , very recent , RCM s imulat ion emp l oy ing the proj ected
increas e s of all gre enhous e gas es r e fers to the p e r iod up to the ye ar 2 0 3 0 ,
the year character i s e d by a e s t imated C02 concentration o f about 4 5 0 ppm . In
that s tudy the r e l a t ive importance of about 3 0 gas e s , i ncluding C02 is taken
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into cons i deration as we l l as coup l e d p e r turbations due to

chemical - radiat ive interac t i ons ( see also s ect ion 2 . 2 . 2 . ) . The s imulat i on
indicate s that by 2 0 3 0 the e ffec ts o f the trace gas e s wi l l ampl i fy the C02
sur face warming by a factor ranging from 1 . 5 to 3 . 5 ( se e F i g . 1 0 ) .

Howeve r , the warming i s not the ent ire s tory ; all GCM ' s show an inc rease in
the intens i ty o f the global hydrological cycle . If the p lane t i s warmer more
mo i s ture w i l l evaporate from the oceans , resul ting in a increa s e of the
atmospher ic water concentrati on . The water vapour w i l l a l s o act as a
greenhous e gas . In add i t i on , cloud cover might change , as we l l a s s e a i c e
and snow cover , al l produc ing e i ther an ampl i ficat ion o r a reduct i on o f the
o r i ginal e ffec t s ( p o s i t ive or negative " fe e dbacks " ) . Al though the proce s s o f
C02 - induce d warming i s reas onably we l l unders tood and s ome o f th� gro s s
fea ture s o f the l ikely cl imatic change are reas onab ly we l l e s tab l ished
qual i ta t ive ly , the l ikely regional e ffects canno t be mode l l e d w i th great
confi dence at the p r e s ent t ime . The impac t o f the exp e c t e d cl ima t i c change
predicted by the s e mode l s would be l arge at a doub l e d atmospher i c C02
conc entration , even large r than any s ince the end of the last ice age about
12 , 0 0 0 years ago ( s e e also Appendix 8 ) :
- p re c ip i tab l e water content o f the atmosphere would increase by 5 - 1 5 % ,
the pre c ip i tat i on rate be ing increas ed part icularly at h i ghe r l a t i tude s o f
b o th hemi sphere s ,
- s e a - i c e cover o f the Arc t i c would be r e duced to a s e asonal i ce cove r ,
snow cover would change dependent on l a t i tude , though extent i s d i fficul t
t o predic t ,
- ice - cap mas s balance change : a warming o f 3°C would induc e a 6 0 - 7 0 em r i s e
o f the global s e a leve l , about hal f o f whi ch would b e due to ab lat ion o f
the Greenl and and Antar c t i c land ice , the re s t to the rmal expans i on of the
o c e an ; a po s s ib l e sub s e quent dis integration of the We s t Antarc t i c I c e
She e t would re sul t i n a worldw ide r i s e i n s e a leve l o f S - 6 m ,
- r i s ing s e a surface temperature would be highly r e g i onal , and
- r e duc e d evapo - trans p i rat ion o f plants would make more water avai l ab le as
runo ff and would tend to o ffs e t the e ffects o f any C02 - induced r e duc tions
in pre c ip i tat ion o r enhance the e ffec t s of precip i tat ion increas e s .

Bas e d on the mode l l ing r e sul ts , recons truc t i on o f h i s torical cl ima t i c

cond i t i ons and s tudi e s o f recent warm years and s easons , a markedly
d ifferent clima t i c r e sponse is exp e c ted at di fferent lat i tude s . The r i s e in
the aver age temp erature at the surface would inc r e a s e from low to h i gh
l a t i tude s in the northern hemisphere ( s e e Fig . 1 ) . There the p roj e c t e d
increas e would b e much larger be tween Oc tober and May , than dur ing the
s umm e r , thereby reduc ing the amp l i tude o f s easonal tempe rature variations
over no r thern l ands . The model s al s o show a large increase in the rates o f
precip i ta t i on and runo ff at h i gh northern lati tude s ( se e Fig . 1 0 ) . The s e
change s could have pro found e ffects o n the d i s tr ibut ion o f the wor l d ' s wate r
r e s ourc es , and l arge - scale e ffects o n rain - fed and i r r i gated agr icul ture
could be expected : large areas o f Afr ica , the M i ddle Eas t , Ind i a and a
s ubs t an tial p o r ti on o f central China would cease to be water de ficient areas
and b e c ome favourab le for agr icul ture . In contras t , the " food baske t " are as
o f Nor th Ame r i ca and the U . S . S . R . would become cons iderab ly drie r .

Re ference s us e d in thi s s e c tion : 6 , 9 , 1 7 , 2 1 , 2 3 , 2 8 , 40 , 4 3 , 4 7 , 4 8 , 5 2 ,

53 , 58 , 61 , 62 .
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3 . 4 . De tect ion o f the greenhous e e ffect

The increase in greenhous e gas concentrat ions from pre - indus t r i al to the
p r e s ent values m i ght have caus ed a s ignificant p e r turb a t i on o f the radia t ive
heat ing of the cl imate sys tem , r e sul t ing in a warming of the global sur face
and l owe r atmosphe re . The induced warming due to the incr e as e o f the C02
concentration has b e en comput e d to be 0 . 8°C in recent RCM ' s and to be twice
as l ar ge in a recent GCM taking into account the incr e as e o f the
concentration o f al l ( known ) greenhouse gase s .

S uch a warming , had i t indee d occurred , shoul d have b e en de tectab l e . However

the s earch for de f ini te evidence on whe ther the cl imate is responding to
incr e as ing concentrations o f greenhouse gas e s , in the way that mos t mo de l s
pred ict , has no t ye t b e en succe s s ful . Scient i s t s argue that the warming i s
de l ayed through the ine r t i a o f the global sys tem . They expect that the
warming wi l l no t r i s e above the no i s e l evel of natural cl ima t ic var i ab i l i ty
b e fore the end o f thi s century . By then the 6 T may have r i s en above the
natural sur face temperature var iation ( typ ic i l ly ± 0 . 2 - 0 . 4°C for the
nor thern hemi sphere ) . Thi s natural fluctuation in hemi spher ic or global mean
temperatur e s , ob s e rve d ove r the l a s t century ( s e e F i g . 1 2 ) , i s influenced by
var i ous cl imate forcing phenomena , e . g . s olar i rradi ance , volcanic ae r o s o l s ,
and sur face radiat ive propert i e s , thereby making the s ough t - for C02 s i gnal
unclear .

O ther scient i s ts argue that the mode l s overe s t imate the t emperature increase
due to the incre as e o f the greenhous e gas e s . In the i r view mode l l e r s have s o
far conce rned thems e lve s ma inly w i th two cl imat ic feedback p roce s s e s , which
are cla imed to amp l i fy any C02 warm ing : the s o - ca l l e d i ce - albedo fee dback
and the water vapour fe edback . The cr i t ics argue that thes e two fe edback
proce s s e s are currently ove re s t imated whi l e o thers are comp l e te ly negl e c ted ,
unde re s t imated or overe s t imated ( for examp l e , the carbon diox i de - ocean
circulation - upwe l l ing feedback , the C02 - ocean s tab i l i ty - winte r down we l l ing
fee dback , the C02 - Arctic s e a ice -Ar t i e b i omas s feedb ack , the C02 - r a infall
di s tr ibution - trop ical b i omas s fee dback , the permafros t - me thane release
fee dback , and the C02 - we ather ing o f s il icate mine rals feedback ) .
Ove re s t imat ion o f the ice - alb e do fee dback i s particula r ly r e l evant .

I t i s al s o argued that the cl imate mode l s have no t been cons tructed w i th

ocean surface t emperature as the fundamental var i ab l e . Ther e for e , the
inab i l i ty to ob s e rve the mode l - calculated C02 warming i s a cons e quence o f a
lag due to the rmal ine r t i a o f the ocean . In o ther words , the a tmo sphere
canno t warm unti l the oceans do . O ther s tudi e s indicate that the abs orp t ion
o f C02 and heat by the oceans could po s s ib ly de lay a greenhous e warming by
f ive to twenty years .

Regardl e s s o f the continuing debate , confirmation o f any v i ew i s important .

I f , as exp ecte d , the concentrations o f the greenhous e gas e s gradually
incre a s e in the future , then the l ike l ihood o f ach ieving s ta t i s t ical
confi rmation incre as e s . Improvements in cl ima t ic mon i t o ring and mode l l ing
and in the h i s to r ic data - b as e s , would al l ow an e ar l i e r detect ion of any
greenhous e e ffect wi th greater confidence .

Re ference s us ed in thi s s ect i on : 4 , 1 2 , 1 3 , 1 7 , 2 8 , 3 1 , 4 7 , 5 8 , 6 0 , 6 3 .

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4 . IMPLI CATIONS

Al though the greenhous e e ffec t has been unde tec tab l e up t i l l now , the
atmospher i c c oncentrat ions of the greenhous e gas e s are s teadi ly increas ing .
Whe the r o r no t thi s wil l r esul t in a s i gnificant global warming and i f s o ,
when i t w i l l o ccur , i s s ti l l a mat te r o f debate . Howeve r , w i thout the dire c t
need o f a c l e ar s ignal i t i s use ful t o g ive c ons i de rati on t o measures to
c ounte rac t the l ikely e ffec t s . Potent ial e ffec t s are i dent i fied b e l ow
as suming a future greenhous e e ffec t irrespect ive o f unce r t a int i e s
as s o c i ated w i th t iming and s ever i ty o f the impac t .

4 . 1 . Po tential e ffec t s o f global warming induced by gre enhous e gas e s

In thi s s e c t i on po s s ib l e e ffec t s o f increas ing c oncentrations o f C 0 2 and the

o ther gre enhous e gase s are enumerated , as we ll as the e ffec t s o f a c l imate
change d by global warming .

4 . 1 . 1 . Ab iot ic effects and b io t i c c onsequences

I . Oceans

1 . Inc r e a s e d wate r temperature Increased growth/deve l opment rate s and

me tab o l i c demands o f a l l mar ine spec ie s ,
i.e. inc reas ed survival and growth o f
natural r e s ource s , through sh i fts of
range s and migrat i on patterns .

2 . Increased ver t i cal In turbulent ( subp o lar ) waters inc re as e d

s tab i l i ty of water phytop l ankton produc t i on and increas e d
mas s e s f i sh y i e l ds .
In s trat i f i e d ( sub trop ical ) wate rs
dec re a se d phytop lankton produc t ion �nd
dec re a se d f i sh y i e l ds .

3 . Decreas e d l a t i tudinal and Lower intens i ty but gre ater durat i on of

s eas onal s e a i c e extent pr imary produc t i on .

4 . Temp e rate de crease and h i gh Poleward spe c i e s shifts due to shi fts in
l a t i tude increase in ne t s a l i n i ty patte rns .
p r e c ip i ta t i on and runo ff

5 . Decreas e in pH Increas ing tendency o f d is s o lut ion o f

c arbonate she l l s ( e . g . she l l f i sh ) , c orals
and s ediments .

6 . R i s ing s e a l eve l Redi s tr ibu-ti on o f nearshore and e s tuar ine

hab i tats , inc luding adap tat i on or l o s s o f
natural r e s ources .

I I . Agr i culture
Of the 2 0 foo d crop s , that fee d the world , 16 have a C 3 pho tosynthe t i c
p athway . The only excep t i ons are corn , s o r ghum , m i l l e t and sugarcane ,
whi ch have a C4 p athway ( se e al s o chap ter 2 . 3 . 2 . ) . O f the world ' s 1 8 mo s t
noxi ous weeds , 1 4 have the C 4 pathway .
1 . Inc r e as ing atmo spher i c
C02
2 . Increas ing C02 and
s p e c i f i c crops
3 . Increas e d c l oud cover
4 . C l imati c change in
general
5 . Decrease in prec ip i tation
a t 40°N and l 0°S
6 . Increas e in prec ip i tati on
b e tween 10° and 2 0°N , north
o f S O o N and s outh o f 3 0°S
7 . Lat i tudinal d i fferenc e s
in temp erature r i s e
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Increas ing produc t iv i ty , p rovid ing o ther
fac tors affe c t ing p l ant growth ( l i ght ,
water , temperature , nut r i ent s ) are no t
adve r s e ly affe c ted ; i ncreas e in y i e l d and
harve s t index , improved qual i ty and
accelerated matur i ty .
Increase in water use e f f i c i ency and a
dec r e as e in water requirement s , i.e. a
greater s tab i l i ty o f p roduc tion and l e s s
crop failure s .
Greater water use e ff i c i ency w i th C4
p l ants than w i th C 3 p l ant s .
Growth more s t imulated in C 3 than in C4
p l ants .
Inde t e rminate p l ants bene f i t more than
de terminate p l ants .
Thus , C 3 p l ants and inde terminate p l ants
have a higher comp e t i t ive ab i l i ty under
op t imal condi t i ons and C4 p l ants w i l l be
less affe c ted by water s tre s s .
Change s in c rop/wee d interac t i ons and
r e l a t i onship s .
Increased quantum y i e l d o f ne t pho tosyn ­
the s i s , i . e . b ene f i c ial e f fe c t s o f h i gh
C02 on growth when l i ght i s l im i te d .
Greater r es i l ience to environmental
s tre s s , such as h i gh temper atures and
shor tage of wate r .
Redi s tr ibut ion o f s p e c i e s .
Impact o f changed weather i s sharp in
marginal c l imate s .
Decre a s e d runof f for i r r i gat ion , increase
of evaporation , and decrease in y i e l d .
Increase o f runoff , de s truc t ive floods ,
and inundat i on o f l ow - lying farml and .
Increased l ength o f growing s e ason in
temp e rate z one and far nor th l at i tude s .
Lat i tudinal d ifferenc e s in water require ­
ments by p l ants .
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I I I . Terre s tr ial e cosystems

1 . Incre ased atmo spher i c Increas ed water us e e ffic i ency . Po s i t ive

atmospher ic C02 respons e in s e e ding s tage .
S t imulation o f NEP , c omp e t i t i on induce d
change in total phytomass , and suc c e s ive
deve l opment to a new c l imax vegetation .
Shift o f the b io sphe r i c ac t ion from C02
s ourc e to C02 s ink .

2 . C l imat i c change Alterations o f e c o sys tems e sp e c i al ly in

regions wi th s trong gradi ents in evapo ­
transp iration .
Maj o r sh i fts in the global d i s tr ibut ions
o f s pe c i e s .

Re fer enc e s us ed in thi s s e c t ion : 2 9 , 3 2 , 3 4 , 3 7 , 5 5 , 6 5 , 6 7 .

4 . 1 . 2 . Soc io - e c onomic impl icat ions

The change s in c l imate , be ing cons idered here , are at an unaccus tomed
d i s tance in t ime for future p lanning , even beyond the l i fe t ime of mo s t o f
the pre s ent dec i s ion make rs but no t beyond int imate ( fam i l y ) a s s o c i at i on .
The changes may be the greate s t in rec orded h i s tory . They c ould alter the
environment in such a way that hab i tab i l i ty would be come mo re sui tab l e in
the one area and l e s s sui tab l e in the o ther area . Adap tat i on , migrat i on and
replacement c ould be called for . All o f thes e ac t ions w i l l be c o s tly and
unc e r t a in , but c ould be made acceptable . Of cours e , a l l changes w i l l be s l ow
and gradual and , therefore , adap tation and rep lacement , even m i gration , ne e d
no t t o be no t i ce ab l e agains t the normal trends . Rec o gn i t i on o f any impac ts
may b e e arly enough for man to be ab le to ant ic ipate and to adap t in t ime .

The adap tat ion o f the e c o sys tems on e ar th to change s in c l imate , howeve r ,
w i l l b e s l ow . I t woul d be unreal i s t i c to exp e c t adaptat i on to o ccur within a
few dec ade s . The r e fore , change s in e c o sys tem s tab i l i ty , di s turbance o f
e c o sys tem s truc ture and func t i on and even local d i s appearance o f spec i f i c
e c o sys tems o r hab i tat de s truc t i on coul d o c cur . Thi s w i l l be fo l l owe d by an
almo s t unpredic tab le , c omp l ex pro c e s s of adaptat ion o f the e c o sys tems to the
changed c ondi t i ons to reach a new s tab le s i tuat ion , the s o - c a l l e d c l imax
e co sys t em . Qui te c le arly , th i s proc e s s of adap tation woul d b e c ome even more
c omp l ex when it is inte rrupted more frequently or even cont inuous ly , s uch as
through p e rmanently changing c l imati c c ondi t ions . A new s tab le s i tua t i on c an
only b e exp e c t e d to occur after a global s e t t l ing o f the change in c l ima te .
The t ime i t then wi l l take to reach a new s tab le s i tuat i on depends largely
on the s e r i ousne s s o f the d i s turbance o f the e c o sys tems and , thus , on the
e ffec t ivene s s o f the programme s to prote c t the e arth ' s c l imate agains t
change .

Changing temperature and pre c ip i tation are the key e lements in c l imat i c
change . The main e ffects w i l l be o n the s e a leve l and natural e c o sys tems .
S oc i o - e conomic impl ications w i l l be re lated to agr iculture , f i she r ie s ,
p e s ts , wate r supply , e tc . Whi l e the greenhous e e ffec t i s a global
phenomenon , the c ons equenc e s and many o f the s o c i o - e c onomic imp l i cations
w i l l be regional and local wi th large temporal and spatial var i a t i ons . The
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fo l l owing outl ine o f po s s ib i l i t i e s i s therefore incomp l e te and speculative ,

but c an be a b as i s for further c ons i deration and s tudy .

1 . R i s e in s e a leve l
- More than 3 0 % o f the world ' s populat i on l ive w i thin a 5 0 - k i l ome tre are a
adj o ining o c e ans and s eas , s ome even b e l ow s e a l eve l . Large l ow - lying
areas c ould be inundated ( e . g . Banglade sh ) and migh t have to be
abandoned or protected e ffec t ive ly .
- Shall ow s eas , l agoons , bays and e s tuar i e s charac ter i s e d by extens ive
t i dal flats c ould b e c ome p ermanently inundated . Lo s s of the s e hab i tats
would mean a l o s s of extremely h i ghly product ive and dive r s e areas ,
whi ch s e rve as a nurs ery for j uven i l e s o f al l k inds o f animal spe c i e s
and wh ich a r e r i ch in food for f i sh . Effe c t s on natural r e s ource s -
dependent on the s e sys tems , m i ght there fore be dramatic ( e . g . she l l fi sh
cul ture and f i shing , s eawee d harve s t ing , s ome c ommerc i al ly important
f i sh ) .
There might be a shift in di s tr ibut ion o f ameni t i e s , and as a
c ons e quence l ocal l o s s o f income , though at o ther p l ac e s new s ourc e s o f
revenue might emerge .

2 . R i s e in s e a t emperature
Survival and growth o f mar ine spe c ie s may increas e in general , though
no t in s trat i fied s ub trop i cal water s . Howeve r , shifts in r ange s and
migrat ion patterns could resul t in local l o s s e s of food s ourc e s and
revenue s , and c ould r e quire operat ion in o ther ( more d i s tant ) f i shing
grounds .

3 . Ac idif icati on o f s e awat e r

D i s s o lution o f CaC03 increas e s w i th a decreas ing pH . Par t icul ar ly in
shal l ow coas tal areas , charac ter i s e d by h i gh c oncentrat ion of
r e sp iratory C02 and a l ow pH , d i s s o lution of c arbonate mater ials
( she l l s , corals and s ediment ) c ould be qui te r ap i d and re sul t in damage
of natural r e s ourc e s and of natural p r o te c t i on of shore l ine s , and
di s appe arance of c omp le te c oral i s lands .

4 . Agr i cul ture

- The impact depends on b o th the amp l itude o f c l imat i c change s and
agr icultur e ' s vulner ab i l i ty to c l imatic var i ab i l i ty . Thi s vulnerab i l i ty
var i e s from region t o region and w i l l have great imp l i c a tion for imp o r t
and export patterns o f foo d o f the countr ies dependent on agr icul ture
for a l arger part o f the i r e arnings s ome w i l l l o s e s ome w i l l gain .
Poorer count r i e s would run the greate s t r i sk , the more s o as the ir
c apac i ty to adapt would be the smalle s t .
Mos t farm l ab our i s appl i e d outdoors and i s therefore e s s ential ly
dependent on weather and c l imate . Any s ubs tantial change there in c ould
nec e s s i tate adap tation and require new inve s tments .
Mode l calcul a t i ons s how that a warmer and dri e r c l imate c ould decreas e
y i e l ds o f the thre e great Amer i c an food c rop s over the ent i r e grain
b e l t by 5 t o 1 0 % , t empe r ing any dire c t advantage of C02 enhancement o f
pho t o s ynthe s i s . A l thou gh e s t imat e s f o r o ther are as are n o t ava i l ab l e ,
any de cre a s e may c e r tainly have an impac t on the world food supp ly and
i t s p r ice .
A warming in northern lat i tude s c ould make add i t i onal l and suitab l e fo r
cul t ivat ion , al though the qual i ty o f such l and for c rops i s no t
promis ing . Th i s would resul t in l o cal change s in l eve l s o f income and
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working arrangements .

5 . Area of fore s t
W i th a growth rate o f the world p opulation o f 1 . 5 % per year the human
are a inc reas e s s lowly , p r e s ent ly ma inly at the expense o f gras s l and and
agr icul tural l and . Howeve r , decreas ing y i e l ds in c omb inat ion w i th an
inc re as ing human popula t i on may require an extens ion o f arab l e l and .
Thi s would c e r tainly have impl i c a t i ons for the trop ical ( and temperate )
fore s ts .
Bas e d on the mo s t pes s imis t ic predi c t i ons a d i s appearance o f fore s t s i s
exp e c t e d dur ing the f i r s t hal f o f the 2 1 s t century , shoul d human
populat ion growth c ont inue inde fini t e ly . S uch a decrease in area o f
fore s t me ans a s i gn i f i c ant decrease o f c arbon f ixed in the te rres tr i al
b i o sphere res ervo ir and , consequently , an increas e of a tmo sphe re C02
- The natural trans i t ion l ine b e tween dec iduous and needle - leafed t r e e s
and the upper tree - l ine w i l l s h i f t to h i gher l a t i tude s and h i gher
e l evat ions . Thus the to tal area sui tab l e for growth of dec i duous t re e s
(ma inly temperate and boreal fore s ts ) wi ll inc r e ase .

6 . Changing a ir temperature
- Loc al t emp erature change may nece s s itate l ocal adap tat ion of the
bui l d ings in whi ch p e op l e l ive and work , techno l o g i e s for heat ing or
c o o l ing , energy s ourc e s for heat ing and c o o l ing , new food prep ara t ion
te chno l o g i e s , new cul t ivat i on technique s , e tc . A l l s uch adap tat i ons are
c o s tly and s ome would dras t ically change the way peop l e l ive and wo rk .

7 . Water supp ly
- The p r o sp e c t s for water supply ( s ource s , us e s , transpor t , s torage and
c ons e rvation) are evi dently o f importance . Rainfal l , s nowfal l , and
evaporat ion are among the key e l ements in c l imate change . Level o f
groundwater o r ne ed o f i rr igat i on or drainage would be main
de term inants of whe ther increased r a in and s now would b e wel c ome and
how c o s tly r e duce d prec ip i tation would be .
- Local deve lopment of new s ource s of freshwater would be require d . Water
s torage and transpor t , and inh ib i t i on o f evaporat ion shoul d rece ive
c ont inued attention .

Re ferenc e s us ed in thi s s ec t ion : 14 , 1 5 , 1 8 , 2 6 , 4 8 , 5 0 , 5 1 .

4 . 1 . 3 . Impl i c at i ons for the energy industry

D i r e c t ope r a t ional c ons equence s c an be expected from a r i s ing s e a l eve l ,

impact ing o ffshore ins tal l a t i ons , c o as tal fac i l i t i e s and ope rat i ons (e . g .
p l at fo rms , harbour s , refine r i e s , depot s ) with an unce r ta in magni tude . Cos ts
o f de fending agains t a s e a leve l r i s e wi l l depend on the l o c al s i tuat i on
( leve l s o f s e cur i ty demanded for contingenc i e s l ike extreme o c e an s to rms ,
flooding , e tc . ) and nat ional p o l i c i e s to c ompens ate indus try for the extra
c o s ts incurred .

C o al and the c omb ined fuels o f o il and gas c ontr ibute roughly equal amounts
o f C02 ( s e e Tab l e 7 ) . B e c aus e natural gas produce s l e s s C02 per uni t of
energy , a swing from coal t owards gas would reduce the C02 emi s s i on . Th i s
argument h a s been us e d i n individual cho i c e s o f fue l s f o r new p ower
s ta t i ons , but s ince almo s t 90% o f the world ' s recoverab l e coal is l ocated in
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the U . S . S . R . , China and the U . S . , i t i s the s e countr i e s whi ch would have to

b e t aking such an ini t i ative i f cons ide re d feas ib le .

An overall r e duc t ion in fos s i l
produc t i on and could be achieved
imp roved the rmal e ffic iency and by
p owe r . But such a cour s e o f ac t i on
supp ly and us e .
fuel use would o f c our s e r e duce C02
by c ons traint on en�rgy c onsump t i on , by
replac ing fos s il fuel s w i th e . g . nuc l e ar
would imply a maj or shift in worl d energy

Energy p o l icy i s sues w i l l be difficul t to tackle b e c aus e i t i s the wor l d

wide fos s il fuel us age that affec ts the level o f C 0 2 i n the a tmosphere , but
the mechani sms for devel op ing world w i de energy p o l i cy do no t at p r e s ent
exi s t . There is l i tt l e incent ive for s trong voluntary ac t ion by individual
c ount r i e s when the bene f i t s would be shared w i th the r e s t of the world , but
the c o s ts would be b o rne who l ly internally . Furthermore , wor l d growth in
fo s s i l fue l use is exp e c t e d to be greates t in devel op ing c ountr ie s , and they
are unl ike ly to wish to c ons train the i r development programme s .

The energy indus try wi l l c le arly need to work out the part i t should p lay in
the deve lopment of p o l i c i e s and programme s to t ackle the who l e p rob lem . It
w i l l no t b e appropr iate t o take the main burden , for the i s sue s are one s that
ul t imat e ly only governments can t ackle , and use r s have an important role .
But i t has very s trong intere s t s at s take and much exp e r t i s e to c ontr ibute ,
par t i cularly on ene rgy supp ly and usage . I t a l s o has i ts own r eputat ion to
c ons i de r , there be ing much po tential for pub l i c anxi e ty and p r e s sure group
a c t iv i ty .
I ,

Re fe rence s us ed in thi s s ec t ion : 2 , 8 , 14 , 3 0 , 5 0 , 5 1 , 6 6 .

4 . 1 . 4 . Imp l icat i ons for She l l Companie s

For the purp o s e s o f thi s d i s cus s ion , i t i s as sumed that the cons e quence o f
increas ing l eve l s of carbon dioxide a r e as already s e t out , name ly , an
increase in a i r t emperature , change s in weather p a t t e rns , a r i s e in s e a
l eve l o f l e s s than 1 me tre and s ome small increas e s in agr icul tural y i e lds .

Pos s ib l e imp l i c at i ons inc lude :

- Le g i s l a t i on affe c ting our product s and/or proce s s e s .
- Loc a t i on of She l l ins tallations .
- Changing demand for our produc t s :
o l i qu i d fue l s
o coal
o chemica l s , p ar t i cularly agrochemical s
- Bus ine s s opp o r tun i t i e s :
o a l t e rnat ive fue l s
o for e s t ry
o new var i e t i e s o f p l ants ( se e ds bus ine s s )

Wh i l e , theore t ically , i t i s pos s ib l e t o l e g i s late for a reduc t ion i n fo s s il

fue l use , i t mus t be the -case that any global reduc t i on i s mo s t unl ike ly .
Howeve r , in a paper produce d as background information for the late s t s e t o f
energy s cenar i o s , Group Planning fe l t ther e was a p o s s ib i l i ty that an
increas ing awarene s s of the greenhous e e ffec t might change p e ople s '
a t t i tude s towards non - fo s s i l energy s ource s , e s p e c i al ly nuc l e ar .
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Fo s s i l fue l s whi ch are marke ted and us e d by the Group account for the
p r o duct ion o f 4 % o f the C02 emi tted wor l dwide from c ombus t ion . Of the s e
emi s s ions , 8 0 % c ome s from Group o i l , 1 2 % from G roup gas and 8 % from Group
c oal ( se e Tab l e s 7 and 8 ) .

I t i s thermodynamical ly unfavourabl e and technic al ly very d i ff i cul t to

r emove c arbon d i oxide from the a i r o ther than by p l ant ing t r e e s . If an
internat i onal e ffort were mob il is e d to do thi s , and the poor re s pons e to the
Wor l d Bank ' s c a l l for s uch e ffort currently makes i t appear unl ike ly , then
the r e would be s ome c al l on c ompanies , inc luding She l l , w i th exp e r i ence in
t rop i c al fore s try .

O f the o the r greenhous e gas e s , many are chemical s in c omme r c i a l us e whi ch

c ould in p r inc ip l e be rep l aced or b anned ; i t i s d i ff i cul t , on the o ther hand
to s e e what c ould be done about o the r s s uch as me thane .

The re s e ems l i tt l e nee d to c ons i de r change s in the l o c a t i o n o f She l l

ins tal lat ions becaus e o f the s lowne s s o f change s i n s e a leve l i n the cho s en
t ime - frame . C l imat i c change c ould al ter the re l a t ive wealth o f c e r tain LDC ' s
and lead us to examine the po s s ib i l i t ie s o f expanding o r c ontrac t ing our
bus ine s s accordingly .

The s e s ame change s , by alter ing the patte rns o f agr i cul ture c ould alter up
o r down the demand for our agr i cul tural produc ts b o th chemical s and s e e ds ,
though i t i s d i ff i cul t to fore cas t the e ffec t o f the b i o t e chno l o gical
revo lut ion on thi s are a - i t might swamp any e ffec t o f increas ing c arbon
d i o x i de .
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5 . S COPE FOR FURTHER ACTION

The exi s t ing l arge uncertainti e s surrounding the p os s ib l e c ons e quenc e s o f

the inc r e as ing atmospher ic C 0 2 concentrat i on divide thos e who at l e a s t s e e
sub s tance in the theo ry , in the fo l l owing three bas i c c ategor i e s :
1 . Tho s e who b e l i eve there i s no need for shor t - term action and insuffi c i ent
knowl e dge about how to tackle the prob l em , so that nothing nee d be done
for the moment o ther than to narrow the exi s t ing unce r ta int i e s ,
2 . Tho s e who bel i eve that the threat i s real , and s e ek to e l iminate the
p robl em , and
3 . Thos e who b e l i eve that the threat i s r e al and unavo i dab l e , s o that
n le arning to l ive with c l imat i c change n is the only s o luti on .
S ome people may , o f c ours e , l ie between thes e catego r i e s , e . g . tho s e who
b e l i eve the threat i s not c ons i derab l e and who s eek b o th to r e duce i t s
intens i ty and to adap t t o i t .

From the s e group s c ame a number o f actions and s trate gi e s whi ch are b e l i eved
mo s t appropr iate . Current ( 1 9 8 6 ) o f f i c ial , government a t t i tude mainly f i t
the f i r s t appro ach , though there i s a tendency to c ar ry out analy s e s that
would eventually lead to d i s cus s ion of r emedial measure s ( see also
App endix 3 ) .

First group
- Bas i c r e s e arch and monitoring :
o mon i tor ing o f caus al fac tor s :
emi s s ion o f greenhouse gas e s
a tmospher i c c oncentration o f the s e gas e s
s o lar var iations
vo l c anic aero s o l
change s in a r e a o f fore s t
o c l imat i c e ffects :
temperature
r ad i a t i on fluxe s
pre c ip i tab l e water c ontent
c l oud c over
s e a l eve l
s e a temp e rature
s now and s e a - ice c over ( remo te s ens ing )
- App l i e d r e s e arch and devel opment :
o agr i cul ture :
r espons e s o f e c o sys tems
c rop y i e lds
phys io logy and growth
o water r e s ourc e s

S e c ond group
Analys i s o f e conomic and s o c i al c o s ts as s o c i ated w i th c l imate change
- Reduct ion of r e le as e s of greenhous e gas e s o ther than C02
- Management o f b i o ta :
o free z ing rate o f de fore s ta t i on
o free z ing land rec l amation
o fre e z ing r angeland burning
o p romo t i on o f re - jaffores tat ion
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ofe r t i l i s at i on of the o c e an surface w i th pho sphorus and n i t rogen ,

thereby increas ing the b io t ic f ixat i on of C02 ( gene rat ing o ther
adver s e e ffec t s )
- Removal o f C02 :
o de ep - s e a d i sposal o f C02 produced at c entral i s e d l ocat ion
( conse quently generat ing s econdary e ffe c ts )
o r e - /affore s tat ion
- Energy r e s e arch and p o l icy :
o deve lopment o f renewab l e energy s ources :
s o l ar energy
b i omas s c onve rs ion
geo thermal energy
hydroe l e c tr ic energy
ut i l i s at ion of e nergy c ontained in was te
w ind energy
o rat i onal us e o f ene rgy :
energy s aving
new ene rgy c arriers
o analys i s o f ene rgy sys tems ( energy - economy mode l s ) :
open ended ve rsus c lo s e d ended sys tems ( open ended sys tems are tho s e
wh i ch through evo lut ion i n the us e o f end products a l l ow s at i s fac tion
o f energy nee ds without increas ing us e o f f ixed carbon s ourc e s )
- Energy management :
o r e duc t ion o f fos s i l fue l us age
o us age of low - c arbon fue l s
o us age o f a l t e rnat ive ene rgy s ource s

Thi r d group
- Adap tation to c l imat i c change s through :
o change s in environmental contro l
o migra t i on
Adap tat ion to s e a leve l r i s e through :
o m i gra t i on
o c ons truc t ion of (highe r ) dikes
Adap tation to e ffec t s on agricul ture through :
o m i gration
o change o f crop s
o mod i f i c a t i on o f var i e t i e s
o al terat i on o f husbandry

I f the e nvironmental prob l em deve lops as s ome predic t , then the impact would
be suffic i ently l arge as to require a pol i cy re spons e . Re - d i re c t i on o f
r e s e arch emphas i s towards analys i s o f energy and p o l i cy op t i ons w i l l then
require p a r t i cular a t tent i on .

I t should be no ted that , when C02 become s the focus o f c oncerted

int e rnati onal a c t i on , the deve lop ing nat i ons wi l l be part i cularly affe c te d .

R e fe r ence s us e d in thi s s e c ti on : 8 , 10 , 14 , 1 9 , 3 0 , 3 8 , 5 1 , 6 6 , 6 9 .
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6 . REFERENCES

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Vande r Haas , T . H .
D e t e c t i on and monitor ing o f C02 induce d c l imate change s .
I n : Nat ional R e s e arch Counc i l , Changing C l imate , Rep o r t o f the C arb on
D i ox i de As s e s sment Commi t te e . National Ac ademy Pre s s , Washington , D . C .
pp 2 9 2 - 3 8 2 , 1 9 8 3 .

64 . Wi gley , T . M . L .
Carb on dioxide , trace gas e s and global warming .
C l imate Monitor 1 3 : 1 3 3 - 146 , 1 9 8 4 .

6 5 . Wigley , T . M . L . ; Jones , P . D .
I nfluenc e s o f p re c ip i tation changes and direct C02 e ffe c ts on
s tr e amflow .
Nature 3 14 : 14 9 - 1 5 2 , 1 9 8 5 .

6 6 . W i l l i ams , R . H .
Po tent i al r o l e s for b ioenergy in an energy - e ffi c i ent wor l d .
Amb i o 14 : 2 0 1 - 2 0 9 , 1 9 8 5 .

6 7 . W i t twe r , A . J .
C arbon dioxide leve l s in the b iosphere : e ffects on p l ant produc t ivity .
CRC G r i t . Rev . Pl . S c i . 2 : 1 7 1 - 1 9 8 , 1 9 8 5 .

6 8 . Woodwe ll , G . M .
B i o t ic e ffec t s on the conc entration o f a tmospher i c c arbon diox i de : a .
r eview and proj e c t ion .
In : Natural Re s e arch Counc i l , Chang ing Cl imate , Report o f the C arbon
D ioxide As s e s sment Comm i t tee . National Academy Pre s s , Washington , D . C .
pp . 2 1 6 - 24 1 , 1 9 8 3 .
 CONFIDENTIAL

- 38 -

6 9 . Woodwe l l , G . M . ; Hobb ie , J . E . ; Houghton , R . A . ; Me l il l o , J . M . ; Moore , B . ;

Peter son , B . J . ; Shaver , G . R .
G l obal defore s tat ion : c ont r ibut ion to atmo spher i c c arbon diox i de .
S c i ence 2 2 2 : 1 0 8 1 - 10 8 6 , 1 9 8 3 .
 CONFIDENTIAL

- 39 -
 CONFIDENTIAL

- 40 -

(1 -Yl l

�YI
'I I Atmosphere

� YI
I

Ear t h

F igure 1

The greenh ouse e f f e c t : S0 is t he s o lar r a d iat i on , I t he long-wave leng t h

( infrared ) r a d i a t i on of t he e a r t h ' s sur f a c e and Y i s t h e f r a c t ion ab s or be d
b y t he greenhouse g a s e s in t he atmosphere ( s our c e : Mureau , R . Koo l ­
d ioxyde ( C02 ) en k l imaa t . In : Hermans , L . J . F . ; Hof f , A . J . ( e ds ) , Ener g ie
een b l ik in de t oekoms t . He t Spe c t r um , U t recht , The N e t her lands ,
pp 68-86 , 1 98 2 ) .

The s un ' s energy p a s s e s thr ough the a tmosphere , warms the ear t h ' s sur face ,
and is t hen r e r a d i a t e d int o space a t longer , infrared wavelengt hs .
The ba lance of incoming and out going r a d i a t i on d e t e rmines the p l anet ' s
t empera t ure . S ome a tmospheric gases abs or b some of t he out go ing inf rared
( e . g . C02 in a band of 1 4 - 1 6 fJm ) , t rapp ing heat in a "greenhou s e e f f e c t " .
 ob
1 900
I I I I
1 920
I I t I
1 940
I I I I
1 980
I I I I
1 QAO
I I I I
?nnn
I I I
.,n.,n
, =:f:---
.,n'ln -,nAn

YEAR

F igure 2 ("')
0
z
"rj
COz emi s s i ons derived from l ong-range proj e c t ions and h i s t or ic produc t ion from foss i l f ue l s . H
0
Da t a un t i l 1 980 are ac t ua l measureme n t s ; a f t e r 1 9 80 mode l - c a l c u l a te d proj e c t ions �
( source : Carbon D iox ide As s e s smen t Comm i t t e e , Chang ing C l ima t e . Nat ional Academy P r e s s , 1-i
H
Washin g t on , DC , 1 983 ) . �
 CONFIDENTIAL

- 42 -

1 6 �-
---�
_ l ow I I ASA �
�

�
�
---- high �
/
; ! . I
�
�
�
�
12 ,
,
,
,
,,
,
., , ' coa l +

,
, .,'I* s yn t h .

,
,, ,

-
--- - -
c: - - --
0 -' - c ru d e o i l
·M
U)
U)
"M
e
Q) ---
...
_ _

- rra:t. u r a l
_.. __ .. ..

- -
- -

,... ,.... ... .. - --

-

-- -

e� 9� 0� 15 2S
year

F i gure 3

Proj e c t e d C02 emi s s ions gene r a t e d w i t h t h e I IASA Ene r gy Sys t ems

Programme . For the ind iv i dual fue l s the emi s s i ons are cumulat ive ly
present e d f or t he l ower- and h igher -deman d c a s e s
( s ource : Dee ladvies inzake C02 -pr ob l ema t iek , Gez ondhe idsraad , T h e Hague ,
The Net her lands , 1 98 3 ) .

* She l l s cenar io f ig ur e s f or t o t a l emi s s ions .

 CONFIDENTIAL

- 43 -

Mauna Loa

Pole

1
N 0 : 712 G 1 C

66 68 1970 72 7J.. 76 78 1980 82

F igure 4

The hypo t he t i c a l a tmosphe r ic C0 2 c oncent r a t i ons based on man-made

C0 2 emi s s i ons w i t h AF= l OO% ( a irborne f r a c t ion ) and the observed
concent rat ions a t Mauna Loa and the South Pole with AF=56% ; N a is
t he amoun t o f carbon pres ent in t h e a tmosphere
( s ource : Dee ladvies inzake co 2 -pr ob l ema t iek , Gezondhe idsraad , The Hague ,
The Ne ther l and s , 1 98 3 ) .
 CONFIDENTIAL

- 44 -

...,.... ,
... ... .
...

-2 �1- -
..,, ... . .... .
-.. c..

�
I
,.. s.

--..
lc.
..... . .

.......
aer-.
...... . ....
......

.. .....
'--

F igure 5

D i f ference b etween the annual mean C02 concen t r a t i on in the a ir a t

gr ound- l eve l obser ve d a t d if ferent p la c e s i n t he wor l d and a t Mauna
Loa , Hawa i i , p lo t t e d as a func t ion of la t i t ude . The numbers a d j acent
t o the d a t a p oint s ind i c a t e the obs e rva t ion t ime ( s ource : Papaud , A . ;
P o i s son , A . , Le cycle du carbon et sa per t urbat ion par les a c t iv i t e s
huma ines : u n apercu d u p r ob leme . Oceanolog ic a Ac t a 8 : 1 3 3- 1 4 5 , 1 9 83 ) .

N . B . The two l ines repre sent the mod e l s imulat ions a t the a l t it udes
c or r e spon ding with 7 00 and 900 mba r .

ii
Fi g u r e 6

The g l oba l c a rbon cyc le .

Ma j o r c a r bon r e s e r vo i r s ( in G t C ) , and na t u r a l and ( q uant i f ied ) anthropogenic
f luxes ( in G t C p e r y e a r ) .
15
l GtC a l g i ga t on o f c a r bon • 10 g C.

ATM O S P H E R E 700

BIOSPH ERE n�l �lt!!�a:!rt!!l 1 . 8 - · 4 . 7 d/1'"/'"u.!u"on 1 0 0 �

\.11
p hyto m a !l!l 600 net dtl'l'"u.51"on 2 . ?.

!l o i l c a rbon 2000

LI T H O S P H E R E C01'7'1hU:!r/10n 5 . 3 OCEAN
I n o rg a n i c C 4.8 x 1 OE7 biota 1 7
o rg a nic C 1 .7 x 1 OE7 I n o rg a n i c C 39 x 1 OE.3

1 .03 x 1 O E .3

(")
0
z
"Tj
H
0
�
..,
H
�
 CONFIDENTIAL

- 46 -

I , !

2.5

2 ./.

1
,981
2.3
�
2.2 1
� 20 : 1 7. 0
2 .1
1 � 25: 1 6.1
�20: 1 5. 9 pH
1 � 25 : 1 /. .9
t /.
2.0 � 20: 1 2 . 9 8.
� 2 5: 1 1 . 9
1 .9 8.0

pH
1.B 7. 6
__.._ pp mv
1.7
200 L. OO 600 8 00 1000 1 2 00 1L. OO 1 6 00 1 B OO 2COO

F i gure 7

Var iat ion o f t he buf fer f ac t or o f seawa t e r w i t h chang ing t ot al C02 •

C oncent r a t ions ( at 2 0 ° C ) o f t ot a l d is s olved inor ganic carbon ( DIC -= r C )
and o f Hco ; i n s e awa t er ( in mM/kg ) are g iven i n r e l a t i on t o the par t ia l
p r e s sure of carbon d ioxide g a s ( f C02 in ppmv ) . The c oncent r a t i on s o f
d i s s olve d C 0 2 ( H2 C03 ) a n d o f CO � a r e given a s d i f f er ence be tween t he
curve s . F or a f ew C02 c oncent r a t ions J 2 g . the 1 98 1 valu 2 of 3 4 0 ppmv
0 5
and i t s d oub l ing ) the buf fe r f ac t or s � ( at 2 0 ° C ) and f ( at 25 ° C )
a r e g iven . Inc r e a s ing C02 leve l s r a i s e the buf f e r f ac t or , d im in ish the
oceans t endency t o absor b C02 ( i . e . prop or t iona l ly le s s inc r e a s e in
ocean i c c a r b on ) and d e c r e a s e pH ( source : Dee ladv i e s inzake C02 -
p r ob lemat iek , Ge z on dhe i d s raad , The Hague , The Ne t her lands , 1 9 83 ) .
 CONFIDENTIAL

- 47 -

I
I
1!5
1 9"
I f:l

I
I
I
�
c
I
I
i
u

N I
I
0
u

2050 2100
Year

F igure 8

Inc rease in a tmospher ic C02 c oncentrat ion over the next 1 5 0 years
assuming growth rate in emi s s ions of 4 , 2 and 0% per y e ar ( r ) f or
airborne frac t i ons (aU of 0 . 38 , 0 . 55 and 0 . 6 7 ( s ource : L i s s , P . S . ;
Crane , A . J . , Han-made Carbon Diox ide and C l imat ic Change : a Review
of S c ient i f ic P r ob l ems . Geobooks , Norwich , 1 9 83 ) .

The growth r a t e o f C02 emi s s ions f r om 1 9 7 3 t o the e a r ly 1 980s f e l l t o

below 2 % per year and there i s a consensus now that the mos t l ike ly
t ime f or a d oubl ing o f t he C02 c oncentrat i on ( i . e . p a s s ing 600 ppm )
l ie s in t he t hir d qua r t e r of t he next century .
 35 BDOE/M I LL I ON DOLLARS

:3 1

27

2 :3

19
�
00

5
1

1 920 1 940 1 96 0 1 980 1 990

F i gure 9

Fa l l in g energy in tens ity in the USA ( s ourc e : Gr oup P l ann ing Scenar ios ) .
(")
�
�
H
t:l

g
H
�
 CONFIDENTIAL

- 49 -

¥ 2.5 . ...,.
______...,.....,. . ..
� ""1
-1"""__,. .
....,..,..,. .
,..,. ., .... 3.5
:...

3 t>
�
;
2.5
�
Q
•
•
..
2 '
t>
.r
-
n
I.S �
0
:t
�

F igure 1 0

Mode l le d c umu l a t ive sur face warming d ue t o increase in C02 and o t h e r

gases over the p e r i o d 1 98 0 t o 2 0 3 0 ( s ource : Ramanathan , ·V . e t a l . ,
Trace gas trends and the ir p o t ent i a l r o l e in c l ima t e change .
J . Ge ophy s . Res . 90 : 5 5 4 7 -5 5 66 , 1 985 ) .
 CONFIDENTIAL

- so -

, I 90
I

I
60
I:!i

30

LU
0
2 0
�
<
..J

0 � 8 12 16 20 - 25 0 25 50 75
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE 1 0EGREES CELS I U S ! CHANGE I N PRECIPITATION 1PEACENi1

F igure 1 1

Mode l le d c l ima t ic e f fe c t s o f a doub l ing o f the p r esent a tmospher i c C02

concen t r a t ion . The gr aphs show the proj e c t e d var i a t ion by lat i t ude in
temper at ure and p r e c ip it at i on . The three curve s in e ach group r e f l e c t
t h e r ange o f pos s ib i l i t ie s ( source : Reve l le , R . , Carbon d ioxide and
wor l d c l ima t e . S c i . Amer . 2 4 7 : 3 3 -4 1 , 1 9 8 2 ) .
 CONFIDENTIAL

- 51 -

Northern
latitudes
(90° N ·23 .ft N )

-0.2

0.2

-0.2

u
0
t=
<J

0.2

1 880 1 900 1 920 1 940 1 980

Y EA R

Fi gure 1 2

Re c ons t ruc t i on of surfa ce-a i r - t empera ture anoma l i e s f or var ious l a t i t ude
ba nds ( s our c e : Hansen , J . e t a l . , C l ima t e imp a c t o f increas ing a tmosphe r ic
carbon d iox ide . S c ience 2 1 3 : 9 5 7 - 9 6 6 , 1 98 1 ) .
 CONFIDENTIA

- 52 -

6
Tab l e 1 . C02 emi s s i ons per year by fue l type ( 10 tonne s C/year )
( s ourc e : J aske , R . T . , Carbon dioxide - the p remie r environmental
chal lenge o f our t ime . Environ . Progr e s s 2 : 14 5 - 14 8 , 1 9 8 3 )

% i ncrease
1 9 50 1975 1980
1950 - 75 1975 - 80

a l l fos s i l fue ls 1 6 00 4400 5 000 4 . 46 1 . 86

c o al and coal produc t s 1100 1 6 00 1950 1 . 72 2 . 57
o i l and r e f ined produc t s 400 2 200 2 300 2 . 11 1 . 11
gas and gas by - p roduc ts 100 600 750 8 . 06 3 . 23

Tab l e 2 . Carbon produce d ( as C02 ) from s e lected energy s our c e s

( s our ce : Jaske , R . T . , Carbon diox i de - the premi er environmental
chal lenge o f our t ime . Environ . Progre s s 2 : 14 5 - 14 8 , 1 9 8 3 )

C02 per fue l

Fue l s ourc e o r type
energy content ( kg/MJ )

coal in d i r e c t combus t ion 23 . 9

l i qu i d fue l from c rude o i l 19 . 7
natural gas 14 . 1
s ynthe t i c l i quids from coal 37 - 42
synthe t i c l iquids from shale 43 - 66
.L CONFIDENTIAL

- 53 -

Tab l e 3 . C02 emi s s ions per re gion ( in G t G ) and per c api £ 3 ( in t C ) in 1 9 7 5

( GtC - 1 gi gaton o f c arbon - 1 0 ton o f C - 1 0 g c arbon - 44/12
GtC02 )
( s ource : Deeladvie s inz ake C02 - problemat iek , Gezondhe i ds r aad , The
Hague , The Nether l ands , 1 9 8 3 )

C 0 2 emi s s ion p opulation C 0 2 emis s ions

region
( mi l l ions ) per c ap i ta

Nor th Amer i ca 1 . 42 6 237 6 . 01 7

USSR + E . Europe 1 . 218 363 3 . 355
w . Europ e , J apan 1 . 391 560 2 . 4 84
S . Afr i c a , Aus tral i a
I s rael , New Zealand
L . and M . Ame r ica 0 . 160 319 0 . 502
M . Afr ica + S . E . As ia 0 . 163 142 2 0 . 115
Middle Eas t + N . Afr ica 0 . 05 8 133 0 . 436
China + Central As i a 0 . 296 912 0 . 325
Wor l d 4 . 7 12 3 94 6 1 . 194
 Tab l e 4 . Es t ima t e s of t h e abundance of t race chemica l s in t h e g l ob a l a tmosphet'e o f 1 980 �nd 2030 ( source : ref . 47 )
-------

Year 1 9110 Ycur WlO t •robu blc

l!teima.h:d (ilubnl Glubul Avcru1c
Avcmac Avc1 11 1C Con..:enlnaliou, Pt.b
ltc•ident:e Miain1
('humk:al Chcntk:al Uununaell Uoeninaual 'fimc ( r,), lt11liu, Oc::�ot a•u.�iblc
(iruua• I· or mula Suurt:c• Sinl. • yenn ppht ���linualc lt anyc lcmarh (ulso tee teal for delail•,

Curbon diolidu co, N.A 0 z JJ9 x a u• " so x t o • bad o�t a 2.4% int:reaso ower the neal 50 yc11r1
Nii iOIJCU N 10 N,A . S(liV) 120 100 J7S JSO 4 SO Combuslion und fulilizcr sources
t:OIUflOUUdll Ni l , N.A ·r 001 <I <I Gun:enlraliun nriublc and poo•·ly daar��etcri�
(NO ·I NU1) N,A 'f(OI I) 0 00 1 o os o os o os 0. 1 Com:enln1tiun variable and poorly char��t:lerizcd
SuUur CS( ) N,A 110.01 .,., 1(1, O S2 O. S2 Source• amd Minh lar1cly unknown
t:ompoemd» cs, N.A 1' 1('1) < O OOS < O OOS Sourca uudaarKierizcd
so, A( 't) 'f(OI I) 0.001 0 1 0. 1 0 1 0.1 Give•• I he lhorl lilceimc &he Jlobal presence of SO 1 i11 uucarlaaincd
I I ,S N 1'(01 1) 0.001 < O OS < 0 0S
fully Cf4 (F I 4) A I > SUO 0 07 0.14 0.1 0.1 1 Alwninu ... ind11111ry • major 10urt:e
ltudrieuatcd C,F• ( f l l6) A I > 500 0 004 0 02 0 01 ·· 0 04 A lu nainum industry a 11111jor 10urcc:
Sll\:dC!I sF. A I > SOO 0.001 0 00} 0.002 oos
( :1al01 unuoro­ CUI:,� ct,. l l) A S4UV).I 4UO 0001 0 06 0 04-0. 1 All t:bluroftuurO&:arbon• are uf eaclusiwc maa-nuade urilin. A nunabcr
t:at bomi cn , F, c•·u, S(UV) 1 10 0 28 I I 09-lS ul reiJulalory actions are pcnt.lina. The RaUurc ol rcaul lt l ion• and
{�t l (1a:' 1 U:12) A 11011) 20 0 06 0.9 0.4 - 1 .9 llu:ir dfct:livencllll would arcally llllct:l lhe arowlh or lhcse
('U ,f WI I) A S(UV) 6S 0 Ill 1.1 O. S - 2.0 dacmit:uls over l hc neal 50 years.
CI-' ,CI-' 1( 1 (1:- I I S) A S(lJV) )80 o oo.s 0 04 0.0 2 · O. l
f'l1f ,CCIF 1 (f l l 4t A S( U V) 1 110 OOIS 0. 1 4 0.06 0. 1
C(11 fCCII-"1 U: I I J) A S( U V) 90 O Ol S 0 17 0 011 0 )
Chloe ocarbotlll cu .o N(O) 1101 1) I.S 06 06 0.6 ·0.7 IN�ttintml n•&uraal t:hlori11c carrier uf ua:anic oriain \II
cu ,o, A T(OI I) 0.6 0 01 02 0 1 · 0. ) A f)()rular rc11clive bul t10IIIoaic solwcnl �
( 'I ICI, A '1"(01 1) 0.7 0 01 O OJ 0.02 · 0. 1 U»cd for manufu�;t urc ur Fl2 ; nuany ICQ)ndllrJ 110urc:cs alw eaisl
en. A S(UV) lS · � O il 0} 0.1 · 0.4 U��ed i11 11u.mufilt:lure of lluoroarbons; U11111J olhcr •a,rliulions •• well
CI I ,UCI I ,< l A l'(Oitt 0.4 0 01 0. 1 0 06 · 0. 1 A mujor t:hc:micul inlennaliule (IJiobul prodoct ion • 10 IH/yr); a)Ossibly l o • ic
c u .en, A 1'(01 1) 10 0 14 I.S () l 1.7 No111oaic, tarac:ly uea.:oa�lrollcd deare11sina wlwen1
c,un, A T(OII) 0.02 o oos 0 01 o oos 0 02 .,OIIIIibly loaic, dcdinina na•rlcll lact:IIUSC or aubslilulion IO Cl l ,CCI J
C,ll .. A '1"(01 1) O. S O.th 0 07 0 01 -0 2 l•o"ibly tolN;. enoderiiiC arowlh due IO lobslilulion IO ( :1 1 JCCI J
Drominulcd CI I , Or N '1"(01 1) 1.7 001 001 O.Ol 0 02 Mujor n alura l bromine carrier
unci ioclatcd Clh f , (l:no � ) A S(UV) 1 10 0 00 1 O.OOS 0 001 · 0 0 1 t'irc .:alin1Juid.cr
!�pedes Cl l , DrCI I 1 Br A T(O I I ) 0.4 0 002 0 002 0.00 1 -0 0l t.t.ajor au ,ol in c addilive for lead tcaa vcaaina ; alsiO u rumiallnl
Cl l , l N l"( IIV) 0.01 0 002 0 002 Eaclusivcly ur OU:IIIIic oriain
I I ydrocurbons, Cl l .. N 'flO I I) S ·· I O 1 6.SO 2140 I IISO-JJOO A &rend •howina incrcaK over lhc •••• 2 year• hus been idenlilic:t.l
CO, I I , C , 1 1. N '1'(01 1) 0. 1 0 11 01 O.ll l.l Pn:tlom i nan l l y of aulu eah11u�1 oriain
C,ll, A T(OI I) 0. 1 0 06 0. 1 0 06 0. 1 6 No trend haas been idt:lllitied lo dale
t·,u, N, '1(0 1 1) 0.0) o os o os O t)S 0. 1 No lrend has been idcnlilict.l lu d111c
co N.A '1 (0 1 1) O.J IJ() liS 90 - 160 No tn:nd hus been idcrui ticd to dale
II, N.A 1"(Sl.,OI I) 2 S60 760 S60 1 1 40
( ),wnc o. N 'I (UV, 0. 1 - 0. 1 •..(l)l l l. S % A 1m11ll l rend ar�..:ur• lo cai111 Lui dala •re insulrtt:icnl
fl'roposphcrM:) SI.,O)
Aklchydc11 I IC I I O N 'I '(O I I , U V) 0 001 0.2 02 Scamt.laarr prudtM.1s ol hydr.-:urbon uaidulion n
CI I 1CI IO N 'f(OI I,IJV) 0.001 0 02 0 02 1980 wncc:nt r a ui on estimuled f.-om theory
0
z
"2j
H
• N. tauhual ; A, anllu upua�cuic; 0, oceaanit:; S, llrulo:it•l.crc; IJ V, uluu viulcl Jthululy�is ; T. uopolittlu:rc ; 01 1, bydruayl radit:al n:muwu l ; I, iu nos1•hcr ic and ealremc UV and clct:lrun t:a t thuc t cmo¥:�1 ; t::'
s a .. soil sink .
.
fl hcsc t:UUt:enl l aliUIIII an: iniCifUIN IIVCIIIICII; fur t:hclllicUI»
lifet imes (0 00 1 0 ) rcan) vct l it:al lnulicnhl may ulsu he c.:nt:uuulerc:d.
�ilh lif.:liiiH:ll of 10 yean U1 k:J», si111ilit:i1Ul lulitutJiulll lllltlic:nlll Cllll be CIIMXIctJ itt tilt: lrupollflhc:rc ; fat( t·lacmit:als wilh CIII'CIUc ly shol"l �
H

I Va1 ic� h um 25 l 't t b v ul l in: �ur rut:c lo uhuul 70 tta•bv ut 9 Lm. l'lu: t:UIIt:enll uliun wull in..:rca!iiCtl unifonuly by l hc !lURie IM:H:cnl a sc from I he IIOt faat:c lo 9 l m. �

•
-

CONFI DENTIAL

- 55 -

T ab l e 5 . Ne t pr imary produc t ivi t ie s (NP P ) per given areas , to tal are a s ( in

1 9 8 0 ) , total NPP and ac tual b i omas s per e c osys tem . The mode l
calculated change s s ince 1 7 8 0 are pres ent e d in bracke t s .
( s ource : Aj tay , G . L . e t al . , Terre s tr ial pr imary product ion and
phytomas s . In : Bol in , B . e t al . ( e ds ) , The G lobal C arbon Cyc le ,
S c op e Report No . 1 3 , Wi ley , New York , pp 1 2 9 - 1 8 7 , 1 9 7 9 ) .

( NPP ) area NPP b i omas s

-2 . -1 12 2 -1
gC . m yr 10 m G tC yr GtC

trop ical fores t 720 36 . 1 27 . 8 3 24 . 7

( - 8%) ( - 18% )
temperate fo re s t 5 10 17 . 0 8.7 186 . 8
( - 6%) ( - 11% )
gras s land 570 18 . 8 10 . 7 15 . 1
( +2 5 % ) (+1 9 % )
agr icultural land 430 17 . 4 7.5 3.0
( +34% ) ( +2 7 % )
human area 100 2.0 0.2 1.4
(+1900 % ) (+1200 % )
tundra and s emi - de s ert 70 29 . 7 2.1 13 . 3
( - 4% ) (+ 1% )
to tal 121 . 1 57 . 0 5 44 . 3
 CONFIDENTIAL

- 56 -

from the c ombus tion o f fos s i l and

Tab l e 6 . Carb on emi s s i ons ( in G tC )
fue l s ( s ource : Group Scenar io ) .

NEXT WAVE

c ommerc ial fue l s total

oil coal gas total + NCE*

1983 2 . 52 2 . 36 0 . 77 5 . 65 6 . 28
1985 2 . 61 2 . 56 0 . 83 6 . 00
1990 2 . 61 2 . 83 0 . 89 6 . 33
1995 2 . 61 3 . 14 0 . 97 6 . 72
2 0 00 2 . 70 3 . 62 1 . 07 7 . 39
2005 2 . 84 4 23
. 1 . 16 8 . 23 9 . 39

D IVIDED WORLD

commerc ial fue l s to tal

oil coal gas total + NCE

1983 2 . 52 2 . 36 0 . 77 5 . 65 6 . 28
1985 2 . 59 2 . 50 0 . 81 5 . 90
1990 2 . 70 2 . 66 0 87
. 6 . 23
1995 2 . 81 2 . 95 0 92
. 6 . 68
2000 2 . 88 3 . 28 0 . 98 7 . 14
2 00 5 3 . 03 3 . 66 1 . 01 7 . 70 8 . 87

* Non - C omme rc i al Energy ( b i omas s )

F

CONFIDENT IAL

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Tab l e 7 . Shel l Group inte re s t in fos s il fue l s in 1 9 84 ( s ourc e : 1 9 8 5

information Handbook)

fue l world Group %

product i on intere s t

oil
( m i l l ion bb l/d ) 58 . 2 4.5 7.7

gas
3
( m i l l iard m jyr ) 1565 56 3.6

coal
(mi l l ion t/yr ) 4147 32 0.8

Tab l e 8 . Contr ibution to global C02 emi s s ions from fue l s s o l d by the
She l l Group in 1 9 8 4 ( s ource : She l l Coal )

c arbon emi s s ions ( gi gatonne s o f carbon)

fue l total Group

world share

oil 2 . 5 6 ( 40% ) 0 . 20 ( 3 . 1% )

gas 0 . 80 ( 12 % ) 0 . 03 (0 . 5% )

c oal 2 . 46 ( 3 8 % ) 0 . 02 ( 0 . 4% )

NCE* 0 . 63 ( 10% ) 0 ( 0 . 0% )

total 6 . 45 ( 10 0 % ) 0 . 25 ( 4% )

* NCE - Non - Commerc i al Energy (b iomas s )

 CONFIDENT IAL

- 58 -

APPEND IX 1

The C0 /c arbonate sys tem in the ocean

2

The maj o r i ty o f c arbon present in the ocean i s in the form o f d i s s o lv e d

inor��nic carbon , i . e . 8 9 % as b icarbo nate i on ( HCO - ) , 10% as c arb onate i on
( C0 ) an� 1% as di � s o lved co . The thermo dynamic 3 e quil ib r ium of al l form s
3 2
o f 1nor gan1c carbon 1n the atmo sphere and the oceans i s de t e rm ine d by the
following reac t i ons :

co
2
( atmo sphere ) � co2 ( di s s o lved) (1)

+ H 0 � H co ;,=:=.' HC0
- +
co ( di s s o lved) + H (2)
2 2 2 3 3
- -- +
HC0
3
� co 3 + H (3)

H 3 Bo 3 � H 2 Bo 3 - + H
+
(4)
+
H 0 � 0H - + H (5)
2 �

I n wat e r carbonic ac i d l argely d i s s o c iate s , whi l e only ab out 10% o f

b i c arb onate di s s o c i at e s . The chemi cal e qui l ib r i a exert a buffer ing ac t i on on
the up t ake of add i t i onal co by the o c e an . The e quil ibr ium cons tants o f the
2
ab ove r e a c t i ons are :

H p C0 I [ C0 ] (6)
2 2
- +
[ HC0 3 ] [H ] I [ C0 2 ] (7)
+
[H ] I [ HCO 3 (8)

whe r e
[ c onc entrat i ons in water
H Henry ' s l aw c ons tant
p co e qui l ib r ium p art ial pres sure in the gas e ous phas e
2

The c ons tant H i s dependent on the t empera ture and K depends on t emper ature
and s al ini ty .

The c oncentr a t i on o f t o tal i no rganic d i s s o lve d c arbon i s :

(9 )

and the alka l i n i ty i s de f ine d as :

A ( 10 )

The a lkal ini ty ar i s e s from the d i s s o lut i on o f mineral s in s e awa ter ,

p r inc ipally c al c ium carbonat e . The alkal ini ty i s de f ined as the am oun t o f
ac i d r e quir e d t o t i trate 1 k g o f s e awat er t o a c ons t ant P� value ,
corre sponding to c onve rs ion o f b icarb o nate and c arbonate 1 ons to ca rbo n i c
ac i d .
 CONFIDENTIAL

- 59 -

An increas ing c oncen t r a t i on o f C02 i � s e awa ter s h i f t s e q u i l ibr ium ( 2 )

t o t he r igh t and by an increa s ing [ H ] equ i l ibr ium ( 3 ) t o t he l e f t .
Thus , t he p r inc ipal e f f e c t i s t o c onsume carbona t e i on :

(11)

� : deviat ion f r om s t a t i onary s t at e

The C02 added t o t he ocean ( i . e . � � C ) i s the r e f ore :

( 12 )

As the c oncen t r a t i on of b i c ar bonat e i s a lready very h i gh , a change a s a

c onse quence of ( 1 1 ) i s ne g l i g ib ly sma l l and t he r e l a t ive c hange s in
[ H2 C03 ] and [ co;- ] are p r a c t i ca l ly o f t he s ame order :

� [ H2 C03 ] � [ co;- 1
=
( 13 )
[ H 2 C03 ] [ co;- 1

Equa t ions ( 1 2 ) and ( 1 3 ) c an be t rans f ormed t o :

6 [ H2 C03 ] A�C �c ,6 l: C
= = x -- ( 14 )
[ H2 C03 ] [ co;- 1 [ co;- 1 l:. C

A s a l r eady men t ioned above [ co;- ] i s about 1 0% o f t he L C , so t ha t t he

f a c t or � C / [ co;- 1 i s abou t 1 0 . As there i s a s imp le r e la t ionship be tween
t he a tmosphe r i c C02 and t he oceanic carbon c oncen t r a t i on ( 1 , 6 ) , any
c hange may be p r e s ent e d by :

S
L:. pC02 = .o r:: c
( 15 )
pC02 I: C

Th i s y ie l d s t he s o-c a l le d evas ion f a c t or :

� = !::> pC02 I pC02

( 16 )
� � C / l: C

I n case pC02 i s exp l i c i t e ly iden t if ied t o p ( C02 p ar t ia l pres sure i n

t he ocean sur f ace layer ) , � i s t h e evas i og f ac t or or t h e Reve l le
f a c t or R , i . e . the "buf f e r f ac t or" . The f ac t or var ies w i t h temp e r a t ure and
has a nume r ic a l value o f about 1 0 . In e s sence a 10 % change in pC02
p r oduces only a 1% change in C02 •

I f the C02 c on t en t of the a tmosphere and t he r e f ore of t he surface ocean

increas e s , [ co;- ] decre a s e s and the va lue o f � r is e s ( see a l s o F i g . 7 ) .
The r e s i s t ance t o c hange subs equen t ly increa s e s , t he ocean absorbs
p r op or t i ona l ly l e s s C02 , and the a irborne f r a c t ion r is e s . Th is c omp lex
 CONFIDENTI AL

- 60 -

sy s t em i s sens i t ive t o the a lka l in i t y I t ot a l C02 r a t io , and hence pH .

Add ing C02 gas t o seawa t e r ( 1 1 ) does not change the a lka l inity s ince
charge b a l ance is not a l te r e d ( 1 0 ) ; t he d i s s o lut i on or prec i p i t a t ion of
CaC03 , howeve r , doe s .
The p r inc ipal f orms of CaC03 in the ocean are c a l c i t e and aragon it e , which
are s e c r e t e d by c a l careous organisms t o f orm the ir she l l s . Sur face
seawa t e r i s supe r s a t u r a t e d w i t h respe c t to both c a l c it e and aragoni t e .
The s o l ub i l i t y of C aC03 increases w i t h increas ing p r e s sure , decreas ing
t empe r a t ure and increas ing pH ; thus , t he deep ocean i s under s a t ura t e d
and d i s s o lut i on of CaC03 occurs there .

If C02 i s added t o the sur f a c e ocean , the pH decreases and the tendency
for CaC03 d i s s o lut ion increas e s . If t h i s occur s , both the alka linity ( 1 0 )
and t he t o t a l C02 ( 9 ) increa se . Al though t h i s p r oc e s s generates an increa s e
i n t o t a l C02 , t he ne t e f f e c t o f t h e a lka l in i t y inc r e a s e woul d be t o
enhance t h e ocean ' s c apac i t y f o r C 0 2 up t ake b y keep ing t h e buf fer f a c t or
c ons t an t and p r ovid ing co;-- ions ( 1 6 ) .

Ap p e n d ix 2
Recent reports on
the greenhouse effect
What are sorne of the dzfferences between the EPA and NRC studies?
Two reports published in l a te 1 98 3
reach strikingly d i fferent concl usions
about the greenhouse effect. A report
prepared by a committee under the
a uspices of t h e N a t i on a l Research
Council ( N R C ) subscri bes to the view
that uncertainties in our knowledge of
the greenhouse effect are so great that
we should take no action now except to
stu d y the problem more i ntensively .
A n EPA report that w a s released a l ­
most simultaneously concludes that
even though a signi fi ca n t warming is
l i kely if we con tinue on our present
path, there is no feasi ble way to change
t h is path enough to avert the w a rming
by more than a few yea rs. I n brief, t his
view holds that we face a l most certa in
u nprecedented c ha nges in the global
climate but that we can do nothing but
try to adapt to these cha nges. I t is in­
structive to compare these peer-re­
viewed stud i es in terms of their a na l ­
ysis of energy u s e and resulting C02
e missions to ascertain why they arrive
at such widely d ivergent conclusions.
Major fmdings
The EPA study pred icts that C02
levels w i l l reac h 590 ppm, or twice
preindustrial levels, by 2060. I ncreases
i n col and other g reen hou se gases
would mast likely cause a 2 °C wanning
by 2040 and a 5 ° C increase by 2 1 00.
Such temperature changes, the report
sta tes, ··would represent a d ra m atic
depa rture from historica l trends" and
"are l i kely to be accompa nied by dra­
matic changes i n prec i pitation and
storm patterns and a rise i n globa l av­
erage sea level," thereby ca using major
seog raphical sh i fts in agricultura l l y
productive regions a nd disrupting es­
tabl ished economic systems.
The EPA report examines various
stra tegies to l essen the g reenhouse ef­
fect . Of t h ese, it concludes that only a
world wide ba n on coal com bustion
i nstituted in the year 2000 or a ban on
coal a nd shale oi l use begun in the
sa me yea r would have a s u bsta ntial
e ffect on the tempera ture i n crease in
the year 2 1 00. A total ban on coa l
would reduce the temperature increase
00 1 �936X/S./09 1 6--004 5 A$0 1 .50/0 @ 1 9S. American Chemical Soctety
- 61 -
from 5 °C to 3 . 5 °C, whereas a total
ban on coal and shale oil would reduce
the increase from 5 °C to 2.5 ° C .
However, even i f coa l were phased out
by 2000 , the report predicts that the
2 °C w a rming would be delayed only
about I 5 years until 205 5 .
A worldwide t a x of I 00% o n foss i l
fuels instituted in t h e y ea r 2000 would
be l ess effective, accordi ng to the re­
port, red ucing the warming by less
than I ° C in 21 00; ta xes up to 300%
are pred icted to delay the 2 ° C
warming only about five years beyond
2040. Even the a lternative energy fu­
tures and changes in energy demand
a na lyzed in the report cause a rather
minor change, five years or less, in the
date of a 2 °C warming. Because a ban
on coal is neither economically nor
political l y feasible and because no
other stra tegies seem to effectively
mitigate the global w a rm ing, the re­
port urges that i nd ividual �untries
study ways to adapt to rising temper­
atures.
The N RC report predicts that if no
corrective measu res a re taken, col
levels will most likely double at about
the same time as is forecast in the EPA
study, d u ring the t hird quarter of the
2 1 st cen tury . A global temperature
cha nge of I .5 °C to 4.5 ° C is expected
from this dou bling, w i t h val ues in the
lower ha l f of the ra nge more probable.
The N RC report differs from the EPA
study in that it is far l ess pessi mistic
about the effectiveness of strategies
E.rNiron . Sci. Tec:Mol., V ol . 18, No. 2, 19�
C ON F I D EN T I AL
that might be used to red uce C02
emissions. S u bsta ntial taxes on fossil
fuel use are see n to have a strong effect
on C02 emissions and to be "the most
predictable in their emission-red ucing
impact." The report states that steps to
change current energy use pa tterns
away from fossi l fuels may be neces­
sa ry a t some time in the future,
implying that such steps coul d be ef­
fective, and recommends that research
into nonfossi l energy sources be stim­
ulated . However, it does not recom­
m end that strong steps to l i mit t h e
burning of fossi l fuel be taken i n t h e
immediate fut u re, pri marily beca use
our knowledge of the C02 issue is
fra ught with uncerta i nties.
Different analytical techniques
One of the major reasons the EPA
report stresses adaptation to what it
perceives as inevitable changes and the
NRC report stresses uncertaint ies i n
ou r knowledge o f t h e greenhouse effect
is that the reports employ quite d i f­
ferent analytical techniq ues to d e rive
their estimates of future foss i l fuel use
and t he resulting future C02 emis­
sions. In this area , a lthough not in the
entire report, E PA employs a deter­
ministic approach, w hereas N RC uses
a probabilistic technique which focuses
on how the accumulated uncertainties
from each segment of its ana lysis a f­
fect the overal l concl usions.
The NRC report takes two a p­
proaches to projecting future C02
e missions, both of wh ich emphas i ze
uncertainties. In one approach, nearly
all previous long-range globa l energ y
studies a r e reviewed a n d t h e range o f
projections i s u sed as a gu ide t o the
uncertainty inherent in projections of
C02 emissions.
In the second approach, cal l ed
.. probabil istic scenario analysis," fu­
ture emissions are estimated after key
parameters are assigned a range of
values. An attempt is made to estimate
the ra nge of c u rrent uncerta inty a s
realistically a s possible. The concl usion
of this approach is that "C02 e m is­
sions will grow at about I .6% a n n u a l l y
.SA

to 202 5 . then slow their growth to
s l i g h t ly u n der 1 % a n n u a l l y a fter
2025 ." N R C states that i ts esti m a tes
a re lower t han t hose in m a n y earl ier
stud ies for two major reasons: "" First.
the expected grow t h of t he globa l
economy is now thou g h t to be slower
t h a n had earl ier bee n ge n era l l y as­
sumed." Second, N RC incl udes i n the
a na lysis i n centives to s u bs t i t u te other
energy sou rces for fossil fu e l s as the
prices for fossi l fu els rise . M ost other
stud ies have downpla yed the potential
i m porta nce of t h i s e ffect .
Bot h of N R C 's a pproaches pro­
duced not a single value bu t a range of
values for future C02 emissions. with
h i gher probabi l i t ies assigned to some
values tha n to others . In neither ap­
proach was an e ffort m a de to resolve
u ncerta inties; rather, both approaches
recognize that projections of the future
become more a nd more uncerta i n as
the time horizon expa nds.
lnetitable results
The EPA report a lso considers
u ncert a i nt ies in som e sections, but i n
t h e core of t h e report, t h e a na lysis o f
future C02 emissions, it ignores them.
The st udy adopts a set of econom ic
a ss umptions to w h i c h no ra nges of
u ncerta inty are a t ta c h ed , a n d from
these and t he use of a globa l energy
model derives what i s ca l led a refer­
ence m id-ra nge basel ine projection or
scenario. Various policies i ntended to
slow or limit the ra te of C02 rise are
then tested aga i nst this proj ection .
Because the policies are tested a ga i nst
no other projections, the a ssu mptions
embedded in this mid-ra nge projection
arc critical in determi n i ng the results
of t he policy ana l ysis.
I f the main elements of E PA 's en­
ergy ana l ysis are exa m i ned , i t can be
seen that EPA's conc l usions follow
almost inevitably from its assumptions.
First, the agency assu mes a rate of
economic growth that would be con­
sidered h i gh by a n u m be r of ana l ysts .
G ross world product is projected to
increase from 6.06 tril lion U .S dollars
in 1 97 5 to 1 84 .8 7 trillion doll a rs in
2 1 00, in constant 1 97 5 dollars (a factor
of 30 increase) . The average annual
rates of increase over the 1 25-year
period range from a bout 2.8% per year
for the developed regions to over 3%
( 3 .8% after 20 50) for the less devel­
oped nations. D u ri n g this same time
period, per capita gross na tiona l
prod uct (G N P) in A frican cou ntries,
for example, grows from a n average of
S3 7 5 per yea r to S 1 4 ,000 per year in
constant 1 975 dol la rs .
The total energy dema nd is tied d i ­
rectly to the G N P by w h a t a re called
..A Environ. Sci. Technol. , Vol. 1 8 . No. 2. 1 98•
i ncome elasticities of demand. These
are set at grea ter than or equal to one
over the entire world to the year 2 1 00.
This means that as i ncomes go u p . en­
ergy u se goes u p proportionat e l y or
greater than proportionately, except as
it is a ffected by prices and enhanced
energy e fficiency .
The analysis is set up in such a way
that no new technology such as solar or
fusion becomes compet i tive with either
coal or nuclea r as a source of electric
power to the yea r 2 1 00. Solar and
biomass bot h remain m i nor energy
sources . Therefore, except for n uclear
power, no economical substitute for
fossil fuel emerges over the next 1 20
years. I n contrast, the EPRI Journal
concl uded recent l y that for just one
emergi ng energ y technology, photo­
vol taics, .. t hree approaches now have
a better-than-even cha nce of meeting
the cost and efficiency thresholds
needed for bulk power genera tion."
Further, the EPA report assumes
fixed price elasticities for fossi l fuel
demand t h a t are independent of fuel
cost. Thus, the economic attractiveness
of i ncreasing t h e effi c iency of energy
use or substituting other energy forms
is assumed to be i ndependent of fossil
fuel prices . This assumption becomes
particularly i m porta nt as the rapidly
increasing use of fuels exha usts the
conve n t ional oil a nd natural gas
suppl i es and greater relia nce on syn­
thetic fuels from coa l and on uncon­
ventional gas and oil is required. Many
energy analysts believe that these
costly forms of fossil fuel may not be
economically competitive w i th other
energy options i n a number of situa­
tions.
A final assumption of the EPA
study is that other greenhouse gases
such as nitrous oxide, methane, and
c h l orofl uorocar bo ns w i l l have a
warm ing effect approximately equal to
that of C02. A large uncertainty is
associated with this assumption, but it
is used neverthel ess in evaluating t he
effectiveness of various policies such as
taxes or bans on various foss i l fuels.. I t
assumes that t h e warming from other
greenhouse gases w i l l m i tigate the ef­
fect of lowering C02 emissions. For
example, a 30% decrease in emissions
prod uces only a 1 5% decrease in the
expected warm i n g .
Beca use none o f these assumptions
is changed i n testing the various poli­
cies, none but the most stringent and
therefore highly infeasible-such as a
total ba n on coal by the year 2000 -
s u bsta ntially reduces C02 emissions
and the resulting warming. Worldwide
taxes of up to I 00% on fossi l fuels re­
duce em issions 1 0-42% i n 2 1 00, but
C ON F I D ENT IAL
t h e m a x i m u m esti mated tempera t u re
red u ct ion is onl y 0 . 7 ° ( .
Other projKtions
In the EPA report, a number of
other energy scenarios are investi ­
gated, but a l l of t h e m are v a r i a n t s of
the mid-ra nge scenario and non e of
them are u sed as baseli nes from wh ich
to assess the effects of d i fferent pol i ­
cies . The other scenarios are ca l led
high renewa ble, high nuclear, h i g h
electric, low deman d , a n d h igh fossi l .
These all u se t he same growth forecast
for G N P as is employed in the m i d ­
range scenario. The low-d e m a n d
scenario i s t h e onl y one t h a t projects a
sig n i ficant cha nge in energy de­
mand -24% less i n 2050-and com­
parable red uctions in C02 em issions .
The EPA stud y i ncl udes one sce­
nario in which the growth rate in G N P
i s lowered somewhat, bu t i t i s de­
creased only a fter 2050 and onl y for
the less developed regions, w h ere it is
reduced from 3.8% to 2.8% per yea r .
The scenario projects a temperature
rise in 2 1 00 that is only 0. 2 °C lower
than it is in the mid-range scenario.
From this a n a l ysis, EPA concludes in
the executive summary that reduced
economic growth ca uses only "minor
[i.e., five years or less] changes in the
date of a 2 °C warming."
The energy model used by EPA is
not intrinsica l l y inaccurate or unrea l­
istic. But, the fact that only one run of
the model is used to assess the impl i ­
cations o f d i fferent policies a n d that
this run involves assumptions to w hich
no range of u n certa i nty is assigned
introduces a certain inevitabi li ty to the
conclusions. The N RC report de­
scribes this model as ••the only care­
fully documented, long-ru n global
energy model operating in t he United
States," but says that i ts size and
complexity make "identi fication of
critical parameters or assumptions a
formidable task." Unfortunately, the
EPA report does not even expl a i n the
possible importance of these criti ca l
assumptions to t h e concl usi ons i t
draws, nor d oes i t analytically t es t the
sensitivity of these conclusions to other
sets of assu mptions made by credible
energy analysts and economi s ts .
T h e E P A study i s interesting be ­
ca use it shows that policies w h i c h at
first glance appea r u sefu l may not be
quick and easy a nswers to the green­
house proble m . It is mislead ing i f it
gives the impression that its projections
are the only possible or probable ones
or that all policies that m ight be i n s t i ­
tuted to mitigate the greenhouse effect
are doomed to fai l u re .
- Bette H i leman
 CONFIDENT IAL

- 63 -

APPENDIX 3

Current ( 19 8 6 ) legi s la t i on and po l ic ie s

G ene ral

Air p o l lut i on c ontrol t oday i s only to a l imited extent a l o c a l i s sue as it

has be come a regional and nat ional mat t e r i n mo s t countr i e s . For s ome
count r i e s the main asp e c t o f ai r p o l lut i on i s only an int e rna t i onal one .
Th i s ho l ds part i cularly for the i s sue o f carbon dioxide/cl imat i c change .
Nat i onal gove rnments are , o f cours e , unl ike ly to agr ee as to the appropr iate
respons e t o the C02 prob l em , if they do no t share s imi lar v i ews r egarding
the s eve r i ty and the c aus e s . There fore , inte rna t iona l forums are us ed as the
app ropr iate environment for the unive r s e of na t i ons to d i s cus s and debate
such nat i onal and global c once rns . All avai lab l e knowledge can b e re g i s te red
the re and r e s e arch c an b e c o ordinated and s t imulate d .

I t i s not surp r i s ing that many count r i e s invo lved in trans - b oundary a i r
p o l lution prob l ems , al s o s er ious ly f e a r s oc i o - e conomic and c l imat i c
c onsequenc e s o f inc re as ing C0 2 concentrat ions . Al though currently no
l e g i s l a t i on ex i s t s w i th re gard to the C02 prob l em , s ome of the s e count r i e s
a r e deve l op ing envi ronmental po l i c i e s at a nat i onal l eve l . The USA and The
Ne the rlands are here taken as examp l e s be caus e o f the i r ac t iv i t i e s and
ini t i a t ive s in thi s fie l d .

Uni ted Na t i ons Environment Programme ( UNE P )

The i s sue o f c arb on dioxide and c l imat i c change h a s been on the UNEP agenda
fo r many years . From a r e l a t ive ly unimportant s ubj e c t i t deve l oped into a
re current i s sue and recently cl ear l inks were shown to exi s t w i th i s sues
s uch as de fore s ta t i on and hazards to the o z one laye r p o s e d by
chlorofluo roc arbons ( CFC ' s ) .

The fo l l ow ing i s a sho r t h i s torical overview o f the main ac t i ons and

r e c ommenda t i ons related to the gre enhouse e ffe c t .

Dur ing i t s s eventh s e s s ion in May 1 9 7 9 the Governing Counc i l o f UNEP

reque s ted the Execut ive D irec tor to br ing to the at tent i on of the Wor l d
Me teorological Organisat ion (WMO ) the w i l l ingne s s o f UNEP to c o l lab o rate
w i th WMO and o ther o rgan i s at ions conc e rned with the imp l ementat ion of the
c l imate impac t s tudi e s c omponent of the World C l imate Programme . Thi s o ffer
was accept � d by WMO . Fo l l owing recommendat ions by the S c i ent i fi c Adv i s o ry
Comm i ttee o f the Wo r ld C l ima te Impac t S tudi e s Pro gramme ( WC I S P ) , the
Gove rning Counc i l , in i t s ninth s e s s i on in May 1 9 8 1 , c a l l e d upon the
Execut ive D ir e c to r to proceed w i th imp l ementat i on of the WC I S P in
c o l l abora t i on w i th par t i c ipat ing inte rna t i onal o r gani s at i ons ( i . e . WMO and
the Interna t i onal Counc i l o f S c ient i fi c Unions ) .

Dur ing the t enth annive rsary o f the UN conference on the Human Environment
in May 1 9 8 2 the Gove rning Counc i l de fined the trends , prob l ems and
p r i o r i t i e s for ac t ion wh i ch should rece ive attent i on by the UN sys tem . W i th
r e s p e c t to the atmo sphe re the fo llow ing i tems we r e i dent i f i ed . The s e inc lude
the c ont inuing increase of C02 , o the r trace gas e s and par t i cul a t e s
 CONFIDENT IAL

- 64 -

in the atmo sphe re and pos s ible e ffec ts o f human ac t ivi t i e s on weathe r and
c l imate .
The fo l l ow ing ac t i ons were given pr ior i ty :
- inte grated mon i t o r ing o f a tmo spher i c pollutant s and the i r e ffe c t s
- deve l opment and p romo t i on o f approp r i ate global , r egi onal and nat ional
pro gramme s
- unde r s tanding o f fac tors affe c t ing c l imate , inc luding o c ean - atmo sphere
interac t i on

The Counc i l reque s te d the Execut ive Director to c ons i de r the appropr iate
t im ing for an as s e s sment of the p o tenti al s o c io - e c onomi c impac t s . of
increased C02 c oncentrations in the atmo spher e and for the e s tab l ishment of
a c omm i t te e to c o ordinate related r es earch and informat ion exchange . Th i s in
the l i ght of the progre s s made by WHO and I C SU , in coop e r a t i on w i th the Food
and Agr i cul ture Organ i sat i on ( FAO ) of the Uni ted Nati ons and the Uni te d
Nat i ons Educat i onal , S c ient i fi c and Cul tural Organ i s at i on (UNES CO ) .

At the Mini s te r i al Conference in June 1 9 8 2 in S to ckho lm the UNEP Execut ive

D ire c t o r summa r i s e d UNEP ' s ten year review o f the S tate o f the Wo rld with
re spe c t to C0 2 as fo llows :
- Concentra t i ons o f C02 are s lowly and s teadily increas ing , chie fly as a
r e sul t o f the increas ing us e o f fos s i l fue l s and fore s t cle ar ing .
A world c l imate programme has been ini t iated by WMO w i th UNEP ' s
p ar t i c ipat ion . UNEP has spec i al respons ib i l i t ie s for the as s e s sment o f the
imp ac t s of c l imat i c change s .
No sys temat i c at temp t has ye t been made to addre s s the prob lem o f managing
the emi s s ions of C02 , mo s t l ike ly because of the long - t e rm e ffe c t of the i r
inc reas e .
- I t l o oks as i f any ini ti at ive aimed at managing the C02 problem w i l l no t
be taken in the near future and perhap s taken too late .

At the e l eventh s e s s ion o f the Governing Counc i l in May 1 9 8 3 many

de l e gat i ons no ted the importance o f the incre as e in atmo spher i c C02 , and
s eve ral fe l t that the subj e c t s o f rat i onal energy us e and o f new and
renewab l e ener gy s ourc e s should be cons i dered wi th in the c ontext o f the C02
c l imate i s sue .

C02 r e lated excerp ts from the reports p re s ented at the twe l fth s e s s i on of
the G ove rning Counc i l i n May 1 9 8 4 ar e g iven in Appendix 4 .

Europe an Commun i ty ( EC )

I n Dec emb e r 1 9 7 9 the Counc i l adop ted the prop o s al for a f ive - year
( 19 80 - 1984) indire c t - ac t ion programme on c l imatology (1) . The ma in
obj e c t ive s wer e to c ontr ibute to a b e t ter under s tanding of c l imatic
proce s s e s and var i a t i ons , and to a s s e s s the p o tent ial impac t o f c l imat i c
var i a t i ons on bas i c r e s ource s and the e ffe c t o f human ac t iv i t i e s on c l ima t ic
var i a t i ons .
Th i s programme f i t te d in w i th the Wo rld Me teorological Organ i s at i on ' s Wo rld
Cl imate Programme and included the fo l lowing r es earch areas :
 CONFIDENTIAL

- 65 -

a ) unde rs tanding c l ima te by recons t ruc t i on o f pas t c l imate s ,

b ) deve l opment and improvement o f c l imate mode l l ing , and
c ) man - c l imate interac t ion s tudi e s w i th spe c i al emphas i s on the accumul a t ion
of C02 and the e ffe c t s of release o f energy .

In 1 9 8 0 the Commi s s i on submi tted a prop o s al for a Counc i l De c i s i on adop t ing

a s e c to r i al research and deve lopment programme ( indi r e c t ac t ion) 1 9 8 1 - 1985
( 2 ) . Sub - programme I I o n c l imato l o gy outl ined two r e s e arch areas , i .e.
under s t anding c l imate and man - c l imate interac t i ons . The mai n obj e c tives of
thi s p ro gramme we re to e s tabl ish a sc ient i fi c bas i s for the imp lementation
o f the Communi ty ' s environmental p o l i cy and to promo te long - term bas i c
re s e arch on imp o r t ant envi ronmental prob l ems .

The pub l ic and s enior gove rnmental sc i ent i s t s grew more and more conc e rned
about the imp l i c at i ons o f the r i s ing C02 c ontent o f the a tmo sphere with
r e gard to agr i cul tural and human s e ttlement p a t t e rns in the long - te rm . In
the b e ginning o f 1 9 8 5 th i s conc e rn was cons i de red suff i c ient ly real to
j us t i fy the introduc t i on of s tudi e s into p os s ib le al t e rnat ive ene rgy
s trategie s .

In the re s e arch programm e for 1 9 8 6 - 1 9 9 0 the Comm i s s i on p ropo s e s in

Sub - pro gramm e I I on c l imatology and man - environment interac t i on to
c oncentrate on the i s sue s : unde rs tanding of man ' s influence on c l imate and
pre di c t ion o f the re sul t ing imp ac ts , w i th spe c i al emphas i s on the incre as ing
a tmosphe r i c C02 concentrat ion .

At the end o f Octob e r 1 9 8 5 a comprehens ive rep o r t on environmental

c ons traints and the ir imp l i cat ions for EEC ene r gy pol icy was pre sented at
the p lenary s e s s ion of the Economic and Soc i al C ommi t t e e o f the European
Communic a t i ons ( ES C ) . The authors o f th is rep o r t argue that i f the Community
i s to r e s o lve the envi ronmental p rob l ems re sul t ing from ene rgy produc t i on
and us age , wh i l e at the s ame t ime ensur ing ade quate supp l i e s o f energy for
the fas t - growing wo rld popul ati on , it mus t adop t a s trate gi c app roach b ased
on a c ommon p o l i cy for ene rgy and the environment . The mo s t impor tant task
w i l l be to ke ep environmental po llut i on ( inc luding C0 2 ) from the produc t ion ,
c onvers i on and us age o f ene rgy with in acceptab l e l im i t s at accep table c o s ts .
The ESC unan imous ly de c i de d to forward th i s rep o r t to the European
Comm i s s ion and the EEC ' s Counc i l o f M inis ters ( 3 ) .

1 . OJ C 2 4 7 o f 18/10/19 7 8 , Bull . EC 1 2 - 1 9 7 9 , p o ints 2 . 1 . 1 6 1

2 . OJ C 2 2 8 o f 08/09/1 9 8 0 , p . 1
3 . Europe Envi ronment , Novembe r 1 2 , 1 9 8 5 - No . 2 4 3 , V , 1 - 2 6

Organ i s at ion for Economi c Coope rat i on and Deve lopment ( OECD )

Dur ing i ts work on envi ronmental pol i cy , the OECD has e s t ab l i shed and
adopted a s e r i e s o f p r inc iples w i th a view to the i r inc o rporat ion in
nat i onal l e gi s lation and regul ati ons conc e rn ing the p r o te c t ion o f the
environment and also i� inte rnat i onal agreement s ( e . g . 1 , 2 , 3 ) .
Apar t from rec ommendat i ons wi th re gard to long - range trans - boundary air
p o l lut i on and reduc t ion of environmental impac t s from ene rgy p roduc t i on and
us e , no spe c i al a ttent i on was paid to the C02 prob lem .
 CONFIDENTIAL

- 66 -

1 . Coal and the environment ( Recommendat ion adop ted on 8 th May , 1 9 7 9 - C

( 79 ) 117 )
2 . Mini s t e r i a l dec larat i on on future po l ic ie s for s c i ence and techno logy ,
PRE S S /A ( 8 1 ) 14 ( 1 9 8 1 )
3 . Re duc t ion o f env ironmental impac t s from energy produc t i on and use
( Recommenda t ion adop ted on 1 2 th Octobe r , 1 9 7 6 - C ( 7 6 ) 1 6 2 )

USA

The Energy S e cur i ty Ac t of 1 9 8 0 ( 1 ) , whi l e focus ed on the deve lopment o f

synthe t i c fue l s , al s o called for examina t i on o f s ome o f the envi ronmental
c ons e quenc e s of the i r deve lopment . One such cons e quence perce ived by the
Congre s s was the bui l d up o f C02 in the atmo sphere , and the National Ac ademy
o f S c i ence s ( NAS ) and the Office of S c i ence and Te chno l o gy P o l i cy ( OSTP) of
the Exe cut ive Office o f the Pre s ident we re reque s te d to p repare an
as s e s sment o f i t s imp l ications . In respons e to a congr e s s i onal mandate , the
Carb on D i ox i de As s e s sment Commi t tee ( CDAS ) was formed and pub l i shed a report
( Changing C l imat e ) in 1 9 8 3 .

As a re sul t o f a s c i ent i f i c c onfe rence in 1 9 7 7 in Miam i Be ach , F l o r i da and

i t s r e commenda t i ons , wh ich we re fo l l owe d by the Department o f Ene rgy ( DOE)
and o ther federal agenc i e s , including NSF , NOAA , NASA , EPA , USGS , and USDA ,
mo re than $ 1 10 mi l l i on have been spent on C02 r e s e arch from 1 9 7 8 to 1 9 8 4 .

1 . Pub l ic Law 9 6 - 2 94 , June 3 0 , 1 9 8 0 ; T i t le VI I - Ac i d P re c ip i tat i on Program

and Carb on D ioxide S tudy ; S ub t i tle B - Carbon D i o x i de

The Netherlands

Conc e rn about a i r p o l lut ion in general in The Ne therlands has l e d t o local ,

re g i onal and nat i onal ab atement p o l i c i e s in order to impr ove the a i r qual i ty
and the chance o f survival o f nature in remo te areas . Over the las t few
year s c onc e rn about the i s sue o f carbon diox i de and c l imat i c change has
c ons i derab ly increas e d and has resul ted in a central p o l icy l a i d down in the
indicat ive mul t i - year a i r programme 1 9 8 5 - 1 9 8 9 ( IMP - ai r (1) ) . The re in
c e r t a in fac e t s were based p r imar i ly on advice rece ive d from the Heal th
Counc i l ( 2 ) and the Advisory C ounc i l for Re s e arch on Nature and Envi ronment
( 3 ) . The p o l i cy pursue s the fo l l owing p r inc ipal s trateg ie s :

- The government w i l l t ake the nec e s s ary measures to p romo te the awarene s s
and knowledge o f the C02 p r ob l em and o f trace gas e s wh i ch migh t influence
the global c l imate . At the nat i onal l evel th i s wi l l b e e l aborated by
p roviding and pub l i sh ing re levant info rmat ion . However , i t i s recogn i s e d
tha t the only e ffe c t ive way to tackle the problem i s through interna t ional
c o operat ion and exchange of informa t i on . As the C02 p r ob l em rec e ive s
a t tent ion in only a few countr i e s and s c i ent i f i c organ i s at ions , the Dutch
gove rnment w i l l enc ourage internat i onal organisat ions such as UNEP ,
EOS D/ I EA and EC , t o expand the i r ac t iv i t i e s in th i s f i e l d .

- In o rde r to narrow the unc e r ta int i e s about future c l imat i c change s and t o
de f ine po s s ib l e measures t o reduce the impac t , oppo r tun i t i e s fo r
s c ient i fi c r e s e arch w i l l b e provided in c lo s e cooperat ion w i th the EC
 CONFI D ENT I AL

- 67 -

p r o gramme on c l ima t o l o gy and th e Wo r l d C l ima t e P r o g r amme .

In l ine w i th the gene ral a i r p o l lut i on ab a t ement p o l i c y , m e a s ur e s t o

r e duce emi s s i ons o f C02 w i l l b e s tudie d . S p e c i a l a t tent ion w i l l b e p a i d t o
s t imul a t i on o f ene r gy c ons e rva t i on , a l t e rna t ive ene r gy s our c e s and
r e duc t i on of f o s s i l fue l us age .

1. IMP - a i r , Lower Chamb e r 18 605 , S ep temb e r 1 9 84

2 . D e e l adv i e s inz ake C02 - p rob l e ma t i e k , G e z ondhe i ds raad , Feb ruary 1983

3. Onde r z o ek i n N e de r l and naar de gevo l gen van d e t o e name van C02 . en ande re
spo rengas s en in de atmo s fe e r door mens e l ij ke ac t ivi t e i ten , RMNO , May 1 9 84
 CONF I D ENTIAL

U�EP RE?Cr<T t-D , 1 ( 1 9 84 )

Au p e n d i x 4

- 68 -

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 16.

CONF I D ENT IAL

C AR B O N DIOXIDE

:B a ckground

Carbon di oxide (C02) i s a n a t u r a l tr a ce cons t i tuent of the ear th ' s a tmo s p here .
The pr e s en t mean conc entrati on of C 0 is around 340 ppm by vo lume . co ha s a cr i t i ca l
2 2
r o l e i n th e g l ob a l h e a t ba l anc e in t nat it is e s s en t i a l ly tr anspar ent to the incoming
s o l ar r ad i a ti on but abs o rb s the infra-red rad iat ion emd t t ed by the earth . This r ad i a t i o n
t r ap cau s e s a '-"arming of the l ower atmo s pher e vhich is knowu as the "&r eenhous e e f f e ct " .

The g l ob al na ture o f the CO prob l em r es u l t s largely from the combus t ion o f fos s il
fue l s(o i l , coal and natural g a s ) �
o s e consump t ion has been increasing s t ea d i ly s inc e the
beg inning o f the l as t c entury . The corr e sponding rel ea s e of co has re sul t ed in a s i gni f i­
2
cant bui ld-up in the a tmo spher e , frac � tr. t �t ed conc entration of l e s s th an 300 ppm in
th e mid d l e of th e nineteenth c entury to a pr e s ent-day value o f about 340 ppm . Redu c e d
energy d e=and s ince the mid-1 9 70 s b a s c au s ed a s l i ght r eduction i n the annua l incr ea s e i n
f o s s il fuel us e and consequent co emi s s i on s .
2

Glob al impact

S everal un c e r t a i n t i e s surround the co i s sue and these pla ce cons traint s on the
2
a s s es smen t of co • s g l ob a l impac t . There ar e al s o def i c i encies in our knowl edge of the
2
natural c arb on cyc l e and i t s react ion to p e rturb a ti on by human ac t i vi t i e s . For exampl e ,
only about hal f o f the co d i s charged from fo s s il fuels over the l a s t two decades c an b e
2
found i n the a tmo sphere . It i s commonly sugg es t ed that the oc eans act as the ma in s ink
for thi s "mi s s i n g " f os s il fuel C0 2 al though it i s unc ertain whether net trans fer to the
oceans can ac count f or al l the defi c i t . There is a l s o uncertainty over the magn i t u d e o f
co r el ease ari s ing from man ' s wi d e s c:a l e a nd increas ing f or e s t clear ance activ i t i e s , vi t h
2
e s t ima t e s rang ing from ins i gn i f icant to an amount comp ar able vi th fos s il fuel co ,
·

2
al th ou gh mo s t proj e c t i ons ind i cate tha t , in the long term, f o s s i l fuel emi s s ions vi l l b e
an order o f magni tude l arger than b io spheric: emi s s ions . If the latter is true , the
fract ion of man-made co which remains airborne is lower than pre s ent e s t ima t e s indi cat e ,
2
sugge s t ing that co inc r ea s es wi l l oc cur mor e s l owly than currently predicted .
2

Uncertaint ies al s o surround the earth ' s future demand for fo s s i l fuel s and eon- ·
s e quent co 2 rel ea s e . Some recent predict ions e s t imate that atmo spheric: co conc entrat ions
_ ppm in the tnir d quart er of the next century ; 2
may pas s 600 this value repr esents a
doub l ing of the pr e-indus tr ial concentration . It has al so been forecas t that the great e s t
inc re a s e in co release from f o s s il fu el s wi l l ari s e in the developing countr i e s .
2

It is g eneral ly accep t ed that future increas e s in the atmospher ic: co2 l evel vi l l
caus e a ri s e i n the average glob al tEmperatur e . However , there is still debate over the
maplitud e of thi s vanrlng . Calculations wi th three-dimens ional , t ime-dep endent models o f
t he alobal atmo spheric c irculat i on indicate that a doublina o f tbe co level vi l l cause
° ° 2
an av erage z l obal warming o f l . S C - 4 . 5 C vith rreat e s t increases predi c t ed for the
h i gher latitudes of the northern hemisphere .

thes e increases in temperature may · l e ad to effects auc:h as al t ered precipitat i on

and evaporati on regime s , vbieh could aff ect agricuiture and the distribut ion of food
resources . E f f e c t s on the oceans may al so be s i gni f i cant , &I chanses iD wind circul ation
would af f ect ocean curr en t s , caus ing the relocation of nutrient-rich areas l ead ing to the
r ed i s tr ibut ion of marine organisms and the consequent el imination of some comme rcial
f i sher ies . O c ean warming and ice cap me l t ing may rais e the aea level by the order of one
me tre . One recent s tudy cons i ders a zlobal rise of b e tween 144 em and 2 1 7 em likely to
o ccur by the year 2100 .
 CONFI D ENT IAL
17 .

� �
C urrent ly t here i s no e�idenc e t ha t there ba b een a o � induced incre a s e in the
2
g l ob a l t �pe ratur e . The d e t e c t 1 on of such an e f f e c t 1 1 made d 1 f r 1 cu l t by t he inherent
var i ab i l i ty in c l imat e . In addi t ion , pred i c t ions of the time when a g lob a l va�ing wi l l
b e d e t ec t ab l e ar e h i ghly d ep endent o n the a s sume d r a t e of beat exch ange b e �•een d i f f e r en t
p ar t s o f the o c e ans .

S everal ap pro ache s to contr o l the c o prob l em have b e en propo s e d . The " t ec hn i c a l
2
f ix e s " Vh i ch invo lve the c o l lec t i on and d i s po s al of co are not cons i dered to be prac t i ca l
2
o r economi c a l . Al t ernat ive energy sy s t ems wh i ch d o no t emit co might b e d evel o p e d to
2
r educe the rel i anc e on fo s s il fuel s a l t hough such a c t i ons ar e current ly cons id ered t o be
o f l imi t ed e f fe c t ivenes s and prohic i tive ly expens ive . En ergy cons e rvat ion i s con s i d e r ed
to be an �po r t ant me ans o f r educ ing co emi s s i on s fram f o s s i l fuel s .
2

R E COMMENDA TIONS

(a ) B � c au s s r e p l a c em � n t o f fo s s l t fu e l s b y a t t� rna ti u e
e n e r gy s o u r c e s i • p r o b a b l y s � i t 1 n o t f� a s i b t • • co nomica t t y
a n d p o t i t i ca t t y � p r i o r i t y s h o u l d b• g iu e n to wo r k g e ared to
t h e de u e t o p m s n t of t o ng - t e rm e ne r g y o p t i c n s no t bas e d o n
combu s t i o n o f fo s s i l fu • t s ;

(b) T h e a i z e o f r e s e r� o ir a and flu: e s i n t h e b i o g e o c h e m i ca l

cy c t • of car b o n s h ou l d b e de t e rm i n e d w i t h g r e a t e r a c cura c y ;

(c) Th e m o d• t t i ng o f C O -i n 4u c e 4 c t ima t • c han g e s s hou l d b •

fur t h • r r e fi n • d t o r e ft e t � fo r ·�amp t • � i n t e � a c t i o ns of t h e
�
o c e a n -a tmo s p h e r e i n t e rfa c • i n o r d• r t o . • • ta b t 1. s h m o r •
a c cura t• t y t h e e i a e an d • : t e n t o f p r e d 1. c t e d • ff• c t s ;

(d) Re s •arc h a nd de u • t o pm e n t s ho u td g i u e p r i or i t y t� be tter

p r e di c t i o n s of fu tur e fo s s i l fu • t u s • and c o r r • s p o n d 1. ng co 2
r • l • a s • to a tm o a p n� r • ;

(• ) Upda t e d a s s e s sm e n t s o f t h e C0 2 c l i ma t e issu • sh ld ou
b • unde r ta ke n i o i nt t y by a v.H O /I CS � �
/U EP . CO z s tudy g ro � p
wi t h an a p p r o p r i a t e l y broad i n t e r d 1. s �
c1.p 1. n m• mb e rs�1.P :
ar�
A • • cond a s s • s s m s n t o f t h • r o t • o f CO z 1. n c t 1.ma t • V ar 1. a t 1. o n s
and t h � i r impa c t s hou l d b � m
ade i n _ t S S S .
 CONF I D ENT I AL l!.\E P RE ?OKT NO . 2 ( 1 9 s t. )

UNITED NATIONS
ENVIRONMENT PROG RAM ME

U ST OF EJNI RCN-afl'AU..Y DAtaRClJS

Qe\I CAL SUBSTM:ES NiiJ PROCESS ES

OF

GLOBAL S I GNI FI CANCE

SC J ENT J FJ C �HS

...

J RPTC - GENEVA
 23 .

C ON F I D ENT I AL

CARBON D I OX I D E

Back.g roun d

C arbon d i oxide (C0 2 ) is a natural c ons � i t u en t of the Earth ' s a rmo s phere . I t ma k e s
up only about three-hundr e d ths o f one per cent of the a tmo s phere , yet p l ay s a crucial r o l e
in th e p l ane t ' s he a t b a l anc e . Th i s i s be cau se C0 2 ab sorb s infra-red: r a d i a t i on emi t t ed
from the Earth ' s surface , produc ing a varming o f t he l ower atmo sphe re . Thi s rad i a t i o n
trap is know as the "gre enhous e e f f ect " .

I t i s n� e s t ab l i sh e d that there ha s be en a s i gn i f i c ant increas e i n the a tmo s ­

pheri c C02 conc e n t r a t i on s ince the b e g inning o f the indus trial era . E s t imat e s of the air­
borne co 2 level in the mid 1 9 th century are in the order o f 2 60- 2 80 ppm ( NAS 19 8 3 ) • ..

Regular moni toring me as ur em e nt s from around the wcrld reveal tha t by 1 9 5 8 th e co 2 conceD­
tration had incr ea s e d to about 3 15 ppm , wh il e in 1 9 80 the value had r i s en fur ther to
about 338 p pm (Bacas t ow and Ke e l ing , quo t ed in Smi th , 19 8 2 ) .

The r is e in the atmo s phere co 2 level l ar g e ly r e su l t s from the combus t ion of f o s s i l

fuel s ( o i l , coal and na tura l g a s ) whose u s e ha s been incr eas ing a t a s teady rate s ince the
beginning o f the 1 9 th c entury . Nume r ou s s tudi e s have reported that co 2 d i s ch ar g e s from
f o s s i l fuel produ c t ion have i n c r e a s e d at an annu al rate of abou t 4 . 5 per c ent , at le as t
until 1 9 7 3 ( e . g . , Ro t ty 1 9 8 1 ) . As a r e su l t of the o i l cr i s i s and sub s e quent e conomi c
r ece s s i on, there h a s been a s l owing down of this increa s e to about two per cent .
Currently , ab ou t 5 x 10 9 tonne s of co 2 (t 10 per c en t ) are emi t t ed ann u al ly f r om fo s s i l
fuel combus t ion .

The g l ob a l c arb on · cycl e

The s ignif i cance of a tmo s phe r i c C0 2 ac cumu l a t i on should b e exzmined in the con­
text o f the g lo b a l carbon cycl e . Unf ortun a t e ly , al tho u gh the princ ipa l s ources , s inks
and tr ans f e r kine t i c s are we l l e s t ab l i s hed ( Bo l in et a l . 1 9 7 9 ) , there are s t i l l uncertain­
ties in regard to s eve r a l important de ta i l s o f the-cycle . For examp l e , a quan t i ty , some ­
what larg er than ha l f of the C0 2 re l e a s ed from f o s s i l fue l s over the l a s t two decade s , i s
found in the a tmo sphere , i nd i c a t ing the pre s ence of a C0 2 s ink as ye t un a c co un t e d for .
It i s commonly s u g g e s t ed that the oceans act as the ma in s ink for this "mi s s in g " f o s s i l
fue l C0 2 , a l t ho u gh i t i s f ar f rom cl ear wh e ther net trans fer t o the oceans c an ac count
for a l l th e def i c i t . Unce r t a inty a l s o exi s ts in the magnitude of C0 2 r e l e a s e from chan g e s
in l and u s e , pa rt i c ul a r ly d e f o re s ta t i on . E s tima t e s o f th e C0 2 re l e a s e d f r om thi s s ource
range from ins i gni f icaut to an amount. comp arab l e vi th f o s s i l fue l co 2 (Ro tty 1 9 8 0 ;
�o odwe l l , C .M . !! !! · 1 9 8 3 ) . If the lat t er is true , the fraction of man-m3de co 2 wh i ch
remains airborne , is l ower than present e s t imat e s indi cate , sugg e s t ing that co2
increase s wi l l o ccur s lower than current ly predicted .

Sup e r imp o s ed upon th e s e deficienci e s in our under s tanding of the carbon cycle i s
the uncertainty surrounding future an ergy d em.and s md c ons e qu en t C0 2 releas e . tJntil
recen t ly , mos t f orecas t s of fu ture fossil use were based on the high srovth rat e s o f
energy demand in the e arly 1970s (e . s " 1otty 1978) . Bovever 1 mo s t s tudy sroup s have nOY
revi sed the ir predict ions of energy d e=and downvards (Bif el e � !!·
1981 ; Rot ty 19 80) .
The s e later e s t imat e s of future co 2 release can be used in conj unction wi th current ly
accep ted mode l s of the carbon eycle to produce foreca s t s of future atmo s pher i c co 2 • The
value s ob tained are depend ent on the a s � tion empl oyed , but several e s t imat e s ind i ca t e
that by the year 2 0 2 5 a tmo s ph e r i c co l eve l s c o u l d have r i s en t o 450 o r even 600 ppm
2
(RD t ty 1980 ; Smi th 1 9 8 2 ) . A mor e recent s tudy has predicted that a tm o s ph e r i c co
2 c on­
cen t r a t i ons may pa s s 600 ppm by the third quarter o f the next century . For the year 2000 ,
the mos t l ikely c oncentration is 370 ppm (NAS 1 9 8 3 ) .
 2. � .

CONF I D ENT IAL

G l ob a l e f f e c t o f inc r e a s e d a�o s ph e r i c C02

I t i s genera l l y a c c ep t e d that futu r e inc r ea s e s in a�o sphe ric C02 l eve l s wi l l b e

a c c omp ani ed b y a r i s e i n t h e ave rage g l ob a l t emperature . Th e r e i s , ho�ev er , unc e r t a i� t y
in reg ard to both the ma gn i tude of thi s var=ing and to when the incre a s e wi l l be d e t e c t ­
ab l e . Mo s t s tud i e s o f this s ubj e c t have u s ed c l ima t e mode l s t o s t imu l ate the c o 2 - induc e d
warming o f the Earth . Current l y , t h e mo s t popu l ar type s a r e the Gener a l C i rcu l a t i on
Mode l s ( GeMS ) . The s e are comp l ex , three-d imens i onal a tmo s pheric mode l s vh i ch are c on­
s i de r ed to s t imu l a t e ave r a ge cl ima t e c ond i t ions we l l , out to be l e s s a c curate in p r e d i c ­
tions of r e g i ona l c l imat i c change (NAS 1 9 7 9 ) . The re s u l t s of mos t re c ent GCM inve s t i g a­
tions ind i cate tha t a d oub l in g of the a rmo spher i c co2 c onc entr a t i on from 300 to 600 ppm ,
if maint ained i n de f ini te ly , wi l l produce an av erage g l oo a l warming of be twe en l . S an d
4 . 5 ° C , a l t hough value s in the lower hal f of thi s range ar e mos t pro b ab l e ( NAS 1 9 83 ) . It
i s foreca s t that the great e s t incre a s e s wi l l o c cur i n the higher lat itude s , e s p e c i a l ly in
the No r t he rn Hemi s pher e .

It i s con c e iv ab l e that the con s ensus oo ta ined between re c en t GCM s tud i e s may be
s p uri o u s and could r e s u l t from the c ommon method o l o gy emp lo ye d by such inve s ti g at i ons .
In th i s re s p e c t , i t is of i n t e r e s t to no t e tha t an independent approach , us ing r a d i a t ion
ba l an c e meas urement s , oo tained a value of �0 . 2 6°C for the increas e in t�perature due to
a d oub li n g o f the C0 2 level (Id s o 1 9 80 ) . Thi s s tudy has , however , b e e n wide l y c ri t i c i z e d
f o r s ev e r a l reas ons , part i cu l arly f o r ignoring the fee db a c k mechanism whe reby g r ea t er
ev ap o r a t i on from the oceans would caus e au increas e iu the mo i s ture content of the atmo s ­
phere , whi ch in turn re s ul t s i n an enhanc e d "greenhous e effect" ( S chne i der , Ke l lo g g and
Ramana than 1 980) .

Resul ts f r om sever al GCM inve s ti g ations iud i cate that a C02-induced incre a s e in
g lob a l temperatur e shou l d a lready be de tec t ab le ( e . g . Madden and lamanathan 1980) .
C u rr e n t l y , however , there is no genera l ly accepted evidence that such an increase bas
taken p l a c e . The de te c t i on of such an e f f e c t or "s ignal" is made dif f icu l t by t he "no i s e "
ar i s ing f r om the inherent variab i l ity o f c l �te . Th i s prob l � is ,exacerbated b e cause
attempts to detect such an effect have r e l ied on ob s ervations o f a s ing le var i ab l e such
as me an summe r temperatures at a part i cu l ar l at i tud e . It has , theref ore , been prop o s e d
tha t phys i cal a s we l l as s tat i s tical ev i d enc e should b e sought , such as t he r e l at i o ns h ip
b e tween tropo spher ic and strato s pheric t £mperature s (Madden and l aman a t han 1980) . In
addi t ion , a crit i cal ex ami n a t ion of GCM s tud i e s ( S c h l e s i ng er 1983) reveal e d tha t the
predicted time vhen a col - induc e d wa � i ng vi l l be de tectable i s h ig h ly de pendent on the
as s umed rate at which heat i s exchanged b etween the oceanic mixed layer and th e d e eper
oce an . This uncertainty need s to �e reduced to allow be tter predictions of the t ime of
fi r s t detecti on .

Reg i onal impa c t of increas ed g l oba l t empe r a t ure

AD imp o rt an t f inding from GCM s tudi es is that regard le s s of the reason for an
increa se in g l ob al temp erature , there are ceneral s �i l ar itie s in the pat tern of c l �a t i c
change . Th e re g i onal imp l ication s of a g l obal warm in g ma y there fore b e as s e s s e d by
ref erence t o the pas t as a guide f or future pat terns of c l �at ic chang e . P o l len r e c ord s
from one of the four warm ep o c hs durin& the l as t 2 . 5 mi l l ion years have been u s e d to
re cons truct rainf a l l pat t erns f or different par t s ·of the wor ld (Eellogg 1 9 7 8 ) . The f ind­
inss obtaiued have beeu cri t i c iz ed as the r ecord s are often poorly dated . the recent
pas t , for which instrumental record s - are availab l e , is cons idered to be a more u s e ful
guide f or e s t abli sning po ss ibl e patterns o f c l imat i c change . One suCh s tudy (Wi g l ey ,
Jon e s aud �el ly 1 9 80) compared cond it ion� iu the f ive varmes t year s �etween 1 9 2 5 and 1 9 7 4
· with th e f ive coldest in th e p er iod , using d a t a f r om the high northern latitudes , the
reg ion wh e re C0 2 -induc ed chang e s are pr edi cted to be zreates t . Temperature incr e a s es wer e
ob t a ined for mos t reg i on s , wi th maximal warming in the c on t ine n tal inter iors a t h i gh
 25 .
C ON FI DENT IAL

la�i �ud es . E s t ima � i on of �he human and env i r onmen t a l c ons e qu en c e s o f such c l imat i c ch an g e s
can o n l y be s p e c u l a t i v e and unc ert a i n . Adv e r s e e f f e c � s i n one part o f �he vo r l d ma y b e
c omp en s a t e d b y a b e n e f i c i a l e f f e c t i n ano ther reg ion (�P 1 9 8 1 ) .

A warmin g of �he g l obe vi l l re su l t in c h ang e s of �nd s t reng�h and e l evat i on ove r

t h e o c eans vhi ch may a l t e r t h e l o c a t i on of areas of up� l l i ng and c au s e s hi f t s i n the d i s ­
�ribu � i on of ma r ine organ i sms and �he consequent e l �nat ion o f some commer c i a l f i s h er i e s
( S t ewa r t 1 9 80) .

A g l ob a l varming wi ll al s o c au s e the thermal 2Xp &ns i on of the oceans and the

tran s f er of i c e and sn ow from the land to the oceans , re su l t ing in an in c re as e in the
s e a leve l . It i s not po s s ib l e to pred ict t he pr e c i se incr e as e , but a r e c ent s tudy has
fore c a s t that a g l ob a l varming o f about 3 or 4 ° C ove r the next 100 ye ar s vil l caus e an
in c re a s e in the s ea l ev e l of abou t one me t r e (NAS 1 9 8 3 ) . Another s t udy predicts a g l ob a l
r i s e of sea l ev e l o f b e �een 144 em (4 . 8 f t ) and 2 17 em (7 f t ) b y 2 100 a s mo s t l ike l y ,
a l thou gh a g l oba l r i s e a s low as 56 em (1 . 9 f t ) or as high a s 345 em ( 1 1 f t ) cann o t be
ruled out (EPA 1 9 8 3 ) .

Control s tr a t eg i e s

It i s d i f f i cu l t to su g g e s t spec i f i c actions t o a l l evi a t e the co 2 prob lem whe n s o

many un c er t a in t i e s surround the i s sue . HOwever , i f there i s a cons ensus that C0 2
a c cumu l at ion r e qu i r e s c ontrol , then two �r oad strategies can be cons i dered . The f ir s t
invo lves the u s e o f techno l ogi ca l count e rme a su r e s t o c o l l e c t co2 from the air , o r f r om the
f lue g a s e s o f p over s tat i on s . A de t ail ed a s s e s sment o f such an ap pr oa c h (Albane s e and
S t e inberg 1 9 80) c oncl ud ed that the v ar i ou s technique s ava i l ab l e vere not p r ac t i ca l b e c au s e
o f the l arge ener gy co s t s involved . It mu s t al s o be borne in mind tha t the e%per t i s e f o r
such t e c hn i qu e s i s l o cated in the developed countr ies , yet future energy g r owth i s
azpected to b e g r e a t e s t in the deve l o p ing nat ions .

The s e c ond approach to thi s prob l em i s a prevent ive s trategy , to reduce c o r e l e a s E

2
f r om energy produc t ion . A p o l ic y o f dras t i c a l ly re s t ri c t in g the co ns ump t i on of fo s s i l
fue l s i s no t c on s idered t o b e p ra ctic al at the pre s ent t �e , a s o ther f o rms o f energy
could not mee t the increased d emand ( Smith 1 9 8 2 ) . Neverthel e s s , an axpe rt group on ene rg y
demand and supp ly r e comm e nded a "lov-e l ima te-r isk energy po l i cy " r equ iring the develo pm e n t
o f al ternativ e ene r gy syst� which do not release co to the a tmo s ph e r e ( Bach , P ankrath
2
and Wi l l izms 19 80 ) . The ad option of alterna tive ener gy ., s tems wo u l d , howev er , entai l
add i t ional r i sks wh o s e nature an d magnitude are not always ve l l known . I t wou l d , there­
f ore , be benef i c i a l to cons erve energy from convent ional s ourc e s a s a me ans t o reduce C0 2
r e l ea s e . S tudi e s f r om s ev er al c ountr ie s reveal that l arge s av in g s in energy was t age can ,
or already have b e en , made (Ke l l o g g and Schware 1 9 8 1 ) .

It � t be s tre s s ed tha t any effort to minimize the impact of a tmo sph e r ic co2 accumu l a � i on
should involve the �provement of world agriculture . In thi s vay , it wi l l be pos s ib le to
reduc e the vu lnerab ility of ag ri cu l tura l .,st�s t o cl�t i c chang e . This i s a dual­
b enef i t approach , as the c l imate wil l f luctuate whether ther e is co2 a c cumu l at i on or no t .
An increase in agr i cu l tural re s i lience would resu l t from _ tbe p ro te c t ion o f s o i l s by
improved land manag ement practices and tha development of cult ivars vhich are adap ted t o
a vide range of c l imat ic condi t ions ( Sc!me ider and Jach 1 980) .
 CONF I D ENTIAL

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APPENDIX 5

Inte rnat i onal o rgani s a t i ons and informat i on c enters

S c ient i fi c C ommi t tee on Prob l ems of the Environment ( S COPE )

S COPE i s one o f the 10 s c i ent i f ic c omm i t t e e s e s tab l i shed by the

Int e rna t i onal Counc i l of S c i enti fi c Uni ons ( I CSU ) . Current �y ,
repre s entat ive s o f 3 4 member c ountr i e s and 1 5 Uni ons and S c i ent i f i c
Commi t t e e s p ar t i c ipate in the work o f S COPE .

The mandat e o f S COPE i s t o as s emb l e , review , and as s e s s the inf o rmat ion
avai l ab l e on man - made environmenta l change s and the e ffec t s of the s e
changes on man ; to as s e s s and evaluate the me thodo l o g i e s o f measurement o f
env ir onmental parame ters ; to prov i de an inte l l i genc e s e rvi c e o n current
r e s e arch ; and by the recrui tment of the b e s t ava i l ab l e s c i ent ific
info rmat ion and c ons truc t ive th inking to e s tab l i sh i t s e l f as a corpus of
informed advice for the bene f i t o f c entr e s o f fundamental r e s e arch and o f
o rgan i s a t i ons and agenc ie s ope rat ional ly engaged i n s tudi e s o f the
environment .

S COPE ' s proj e c t on B iogeochemical Cyc l e s has provided a forum to as s e s s

exi s t ing knowl e dge o n the carb on cyc l e and to de f ine f i e l ds o f i gno rance .
The re sul t s and rec ommendat i ons o f a s ix day workshop (he l d in 1 9 7 7 at
Ratz eburg , FRG and financ ial ly supported by S COPE , UNEP , the Re s earch
Counc i l , the Univers i ty of Hamburg and She l l ) , have been l a id down in SCOPE
Report 1 3 , i . e . The G lobal Carbon Cyc l e ( 1 9 7 9 ) .

Ano the r re l evant pub l i c a t i on in th i s f i e l d i s S COPE Rep o r t 1 6 , i . e . Carbon

Cyc l e Mo de l l ing ( 1 9 8 1 ) .

The Wo r l d C l imate Conference o f 1 9 7 9 , in Geneva ( o rgani s e d by WMO , UNEP

and S COPE - I CSU) resul ted in a Wor l d C l imate Programme ( WCP ) . The WCP
inc lude s a s tudy of impact analys i s of a changing c l imate . A team of 2 6
autho rs from 1 6 c ountr i e s , l e d by Robert W . Kate s , i s prepar ing a S COPE
report , wh i ch wi l l b e a pre s c r ip t ive document for the de s i gn of c l imatic
impac t as s e s sment s .

S COPE S e c re t ariat
5 1 Boulevard de Montmo rency
7 5 0 1 6 Par i s
France

Wo r l d Me teoro logical Organi s ati on (WMO )

S inc e a rap i d sh i f t i n the 1 9 7 0 ' s from trad i t i onal me teoro l o gy towards a

c l imat i c focus , WMO c oncentrates on c l imat i c theme s . The c l ima t i c sys tem
i s s e en as an ent i r e who l e , invo lving inte rac t i on b e tween atmo sphe re ,
o c e an , b i o ta , soils , rocks , i c e and human s o c i e ty . WMO ' s conve rs ion
culminated in the Wo il d C l imate Conference o f 1 9 7 9 , in Geneva ( o rgan i s ed
by WMO , UNEP and S COPE - I C SU) , wh i ch concentrated a t tent ion on the l inks
b e twe en s o c i e ty and var i ab l e cl imate .
 CONFIDENTIAL

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Out o f thi s c onference came a World Cl imate Programme , w i th four component

programme s :
- The World C l imate App l ication Programme (WCAP ) " to as s is t s o c ie t i e s to
improve the i r c apab i l i t i e s to car ry out var ious ac t ivi t i e s and to obtain
maximum e c onomi c and s o c ial bene f i t under di fferent c l ima t i c c ondi t ions ,
whi l e maintaining environmental integr i ty" .
- The Wor l d C l imate Re s earch Programme (WCRP ) " to what extent o f man ' s
influence on c l imate " .
- The Wor l d C l imate Impac t S tudi e s Programme (WC I P ) " the b as i c s tudi e s
should a im at a n integration o f c l imate , e co logical and s o c i o - e c onomi c
fac tors whi ch enter into the comp lex prob lems fac ing s o c i e ty , in
particular thos e relat ing to food , water and energy " .
- The World C l imate Data Programme (WCDP ) " to ensur e ava i l ab i l i ty o f
r e l i ab l e c l imate data whi ch are acce s s ib l e and exchange ab l e i n an
acceptab l e form and t ime , as r e quired in c l imate r e s e arch , app l icati ons
and impact s tudie s " .

�0
P . O . Box 5
Geneva 20
Swi t z e r l and

Int e rnat ional Carbon Unit ( I CU )

In cooperation w i th SCOPE(UNEP an Internat ional Carbon Uni t has been

e s tab l i shed at the Univers i ty o f Hamburg , aimed at the c o l l e c t ion of
information on the carbon cyc le . The I CU is headed by Pro f . Dr . Egon T .
D e gens . Sub - uni ts are located at the Vrij e Unive r s i t e i t of Brus s e l s
( c artography ) , the Unive r s i ty of S tockho lm ( atmo spher i c sys tems and mode ls ) ,
the Univer s i ty of Es sen ( s oc i o - economic aspec ts ) and in Woods Ho l e Mas s .
( land b io t a ) .

P ro f . Dr . Egon T . Degens
Geologi s ch - PalAonto logi s che s Ins t i tut
Univers i tA t Hamburg
Bunder s tras s e 5 5
200 Hamburg 1 3
�G

G l ob al Environmental Re search Organ i s a tion ( GERO )

I tal i an and Amer ic an sc ient i s t s agreed at the end o f Oc tober 1 9 8 5 to s e t

u p a new internat ional r e s ear ch ins t i tute ( GERO ) on a n i s l and in the
Venic e lagoon . I t wil l be the f i r s t to be dedicated to global ,
interdi s c ip l inary s tudie s o f the environment . S tudy theme s w i l l cover
energy flow through the b i o sphere , inc luding c l imat i c l inkage s b e tween
atmo sphere and o c e an , b io geochemical cyc le s , ranging from ac i d rain , and
greenhouse e ffec t to ocean i c s e d iments .

C arbon D i ox i de Information Center ( CD I C )

The C D I C supports the U S c arbon dioxide re s earch program and c ooperate s in

informa t i on exchange wi th the inte rnational s c ient i f i c commun i ty
 CONFIDENTIAL

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addre s s ing global atmo spher i c C02 prob lems . CDIC i s spons ored by the
Depar tment o f Ene rgy ' s ( DO E ) C arbon D ioxi de Re s e arch D ivi s ion and is
admin i s tered by the Information D ivi s ion at Oak Ridge Nat i onal Laboratory .
- CDI C maintains a B ib l iograph i c Information Sys tem c ontaining ove r 7 0 0 0
keyworded refe renc e s .
- i t maintains an Internat ional Direc tory o f approximate ly 1 7 0 0 C02
r e s e arche r s .
- i t pub l i shes CDI C Communi cat i ons , a b iannual news l e t t e r tha t rep o r t s on
many aspec ts o f C02 - related r e s e arch proj e c t s , event s , mee t ings , and
pub l i c a ti ons .

cor e
Oak Ridge National Labo ratory
P . O . Box x
Oak Ri dge , Tenne s s e e , U . S .

Canada

Environment Canada pub l i she s a quarterly news l e t te r , C02 C l imate Report ,

that wi l l s t imulate as we l l as update C02 information with in the C anadian
r e s e arch c ommun i ty .

Atmosphe r i c Environment S e rvice

4 9 04 Duffer in S tr e e t
Downsvi ew , Ontar io M 3 H ST4 , Canada
 CONFI DENTIAL

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APPENDIX 6

Ins t i tute s involved in C02/c l imate/greenhous e e ffec t r e s e arch

A . U s e of theore t ical c l imate sys tem mode l s

Br i t i sh Me teorological Office
Brackne l l , U . K .
( B . J . Mas on ; J . G il chr i s t )

Dep artment o f Atmoshperic S c i enc e s

Oregon S tate Univers i ty , Corval l i s , Ore gon , U . S .
( W . L . Gate s )

Department o f Me teorology
Univers i ty o f S to ckholm , S tockho lm , Sweden
( B . Bo l in )

Depar tment o f Me teorology , U . C . L . A .

Lo s Ange l e s , Cal i fornia , U . S .
( Y . Mintz ; A . Arakawa )

G eophys i cal Fluid Dynamic s Laboratory

NOAA , Pr ince town , New J e r s ey , U . S .
( S . Manabe ; K . Bryan ; R . T . We the rald )

Goddard Space F l i ght Center

Gre enbe l t , Maryland , U . S .
( M . Hal l ion ; Y . Mintz )

Nat ional C enter for Atmosphe r i c Re s earch

Boulde r , C o l o rado , U . S .
( W . M . Washington ; R . E . D ickinson ; W . W . Ke l logg)

B . Rec ons truc t i on o f real c l imatic change of the pas t

1 . Ins t rumental record and paleocl imatology

C l imat e Re s e arch Uni t

Unive r s i ty o f Eas t Angl i a , Norwich , U . K .
( T . M . L . Wigley ; H . H . Lamb )

I ns t i tute for Environmental S tud i e s

Unive rs i ty o f Wis c ons in , Madison , W i s c ons in , U . S .
( J . W . Kutzbach ; R . A . Bryson)

Me teoro l o g i c al Ins t i tute

Unive r s i ty of Bonn , Bonn , F . R . G .
( H . Flohn ; S . N i cholson)
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2 . Ins t rumental record

C l imat i c D iagnos t i c Cente r , NOAA

Sui t l and , Maryland , U . S .
( D . G i lman)

C S IRO , Me lbourne , Aus tra l i a

( B . W . P i ttork , B . Tucke r )

Department o f Me teorology
M . I . T . , Cambridge , Mas s achus e t t s , U . S .
( R . Newe l l )

Department o f Me teorology
Univers i ty of S tockholm , S tockho lm , Sweden
( S - A . Odh ; J . He intz enberg)

Department o f Me teorol ogy

Col orado S tate Univers i ty , Fort C o l l ins , C o l orado , U . S .
( E . Re i te r )

Environmental Data S e rvice and Air Re s ource s Laboratory , NOAA

S i lver Spr ing , Maryl and , U . S .
(J . M . Mi tche l l ; J . K . Ange l l ; K . Ko rchover )

Nat ional Center fo r Atmo sphe r i c Re s e arch ,

Boulde r , C o l orado , U . S .
(H . van Loon ; R . L . Madden)

3 . Paleocl imato logy

Arc t i c and Alp ine Ins t i tute

Unive rs i ty of Colorado , Boulde r , C o l orado , U . S .
( J . Ive s ; J . Andrews ; N . Nicho l s )

Brown Unive rs i ty
Providenc e , Rhode I s land , U . S .
( J . Imb r i e )

Geologi s ch - Palaonto logishe s Ins t i tut

Unive r s i ty of Hamburg , Hamburg , F . R . G .
( E . T . Degens )

Lamont Geo logical Ob s e rvatory

C o lumb i a Univers i ty , Pal i s ade s , New York , U . S .
( G . Kukla )
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C . S our c e s and s inks for C02 in the b iosphe re

Department o f Theore t ical Produc t i on Ecology

Agr icul tural Unive r s i ty , Wageningen , The Ne therlands
( J . G oudr iaan)

C S IRO , C anberra , Aus trali a

( G . P earman)

Duke Unive r s i ty
( K . R . Krame r )

Lawrence Livermor e Lab s

C al i fo rnia , U . S .
( G . B ingham)

Mar ine B iologi cal Laboratory

Woods Ho le Oceanographi c I ns t i tute , Mas s achus e tt s , U . S .
( G . M . Woodwe l l )

NOAA Re s e ar ch Lab s
Boulde r , Colorado , U . S .
( B . Bean)

Unive r s i ty of Nebraska , Linc o ln

( S . B . Verma ; N . J . Ro s enberg)

D . B i omas s produc tion

Univer s i ty o f Ghent , Belgium

( R . Lemeur )

Univer s i ty o f Antwerp , Be l g ium

( I . Imp ens )

Univer s i ty o f Cal i fornia , Berke ly , Cal i fornia , U . S .

( M . C alvin)

U . S . Fores t S ervic e , Rh inel ander , Wis cons in , U . S .

( D . Dawson)

E . C r op mode l ing re l ated to C02 and c l imate change

Crop S imula t i on Re s e arch Uni t

M i s s i s s ipp i S tate C o llege , M i s s i s s ipp i , U . S .
( D . N . Baker )

Department of Agr i c ul tural Enginee r ing

C l emson Univers i ty , South Carol ina , U . S .
( J . Lamb e r t )
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Evapotransp ira t i on Laboratory

Kans as S tate Univers i ty , Manhattan , Kans as , U . S .
( E . T . Kanemasu)

Temp l e , Texas
( G . Arkin)

Unive r s i ty o f Flo r i da
(K . Boote )

Unive r s i ty o f Kentucky , Lexington

(W . Duncan)

Unive r s i ty of Nebraska , Linc o ln

( J . No rman ; G . Meyer )

Unive r s i ty o f Wis c ons in , Mad i s on

( G . C o ttam)

U . S . Department o f Agr icul ture (USDA)

I thac a , New Yo rk , U . S .
( T . S inc lair )

USDA
Temp l e , Texas , U . S .
( J . T . R i tchi e )

U . S . Water Cons e rvat i on Laboratory

U . S . Department o f Agr icul ture , Pho enix , Ar i z ona , U . S .
( S . B . I ds o )

F . S oc i al and economic consequence s o f c l imate change

Arb e i ts gruppe Umwe l t , G e s e l l s chaft , Energie

Unive r s i ty of Es s en , E s s en , F . R . G .
( K . Meye r - Ab ich )

Kennedy S choo l o f Gove rnment

Harvard Univers i ty
( T . C . S che l l ing )
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APPENDIX 7

Re l evant pub l i c at ions ( reports and b ooks )

Ander s en , N . R . ; Malaho ff , A . ( eds )

The Fate o f Fo s s i l Fue l in the Oceans
Plenum Pre s s , NY , 1 9 7 7

Bach , W .
Our Threatened C l imate : Ways of Aver t ing the C02 P roblem through Rat ional
Ener gy Use
Kluwer Acad . Publ . , H ingham , MA, 1 9 84

Bach , W . ( ed . )
Carbon D i oxide : Current Views and Deve lopments in Energy/Cl imate Re s e arch
Kluwer Acad . Pub l . , H ingham , MA , 1 9 8 3

Bach , W . ; Pankrath , J . ; W i l l i ams , J . ( eds )

Interac t i ons o f Energy and C l imate
Re i de l , Dordre cht , The Netherlands , 1 9 8 0

Barth , M . C . ; T i tus , J . G . ( eds )

Greenhous e Effe c t and S e a Leve l R i s e : A Chal lenge for thi s Gene rat ion
Van Nos trand Re inho l d , Florence , KY , 1 9 8 4

Berger , A . L . ; Noc o l i s , C . ( eds )

New Perspec t ive s in C l imate Mode l l ing
E l s evier , Ams terdam , The Ne therlands , 1 9 84

Bo l in , B .
C arbon Cyc le Mode l l ing
S c op e Repo r t 1 6 , W i l ey , NY , 1 9 8 1
*
Bol in , B . ; De gens , E . T . ; Kempe , S . ; Ketne r , P . ( eds )
The G l obal Carbon Cyc le
S c op e Rep o r t 1 3 , Wiley , NY , 1 9 7 9

C arbon D i ox i de As s e s sment Committee

Changing C l imate
N a ti onal Academy Pre s s , Wash ington , DC , 1 9 8 3

C l ark , W . C . ( ed . )
C arbon D ioxide Review : 1 9 8 2
Oxford Univ . Pre s s , NY , 1 9 8 2

Cush ing , D . H .
C l imate and F i she r i e s
Academi c Pre s s , NY , 1 9 8 3
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Geophys i c s S tudy Commi ttee ( G S C )

Energy and C l imate
Nat i onal Academy Pre s s , Washington , DC , 1 9 7 7
*
HAfe l e , R .
Energy in a Finite World . A G lobal Sys tems Analys i s
Ball inger Pub l . Co . , Cambridge , MA , 1 9 8 1

Hill , A . E .
Atmosphe re - Ocean Dynamics
Academic Pres s , NY , 1 9 8 2

Houghton , J . T . ( ed . )
The G l obal C l imate
C ambr i dge Univ . Pre s s . , NY, 1 9 84
*
I ds o , S . B .
C arbon D i oxide : Fr iend or Foe ?
IBR Pre s s , Tempe , Ari zona , 19 8 2

JAger , J .
C l imate and Energy Sys tems : a Revi ew of the i r Interac t ions
W i l ey , NY , 1 9 8 3

Kel logg , W . ; S chware , R .

C l imate Change and S o c i e ty : Cons e quence s of Increas ing Atmo sphe r i c Carbon
Dioxide
Aspen I ns t i tute , Boulde r , CO , 1 9 8 1

Lemon , E . R .
C02 and p l ants : The Re spons e o f Plants to R i s ing Leve l s o f Atmo sphe ric
C arbon D i oxide
We s t V iew Pre s s , Boulde r , CO , 1 9 8 3
*
Li s s , P . S . ; Crane , A . J .
Man - Made C arbon D ioxide and C l imate Change : A Revi ew o f the S c i en t i fic
Prob l ems
G EO Books , Norwich , England , 1 9 8 3

MacDonald , G . J . ( ed . )
The Long - Te rm Impac ts o f Increas ing Atmosphe r i c Carbon Dioxide Leve l s
Ball inger , Cambridge , Mas s , 1 9 8 2

McBeath , J . H . ; Juday , G . P . ; We l le r , G . ; Murray , M . ( eds )

The P o t ent ial Effe c t s o f Carbon D i oxide - Induce d C l ima t i c Change s in Alaska
Univ . o f Alaska , S choo l o f Agri cul ture and Land Re s our c e s Management
M i s c e l l aneous Pub l i cat ion 8 3 - 1 , Fai rbanks , AK , 1 9 84

Nat i onal Re s earch Counc i l ( NRC )

Carbon D i oxide and C l imate : a S c i en t i f i c As s e s sment
Nati onal Academy Pre s s , Washington , DC , 1 9 7 9
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Nat i onal Res e ar ch Counc i l

Energy i n Trans i t ion 1 9 8 5 - 2 0 1 0
F inal Repo r t of the Commi ttee on Nuc lear and Al ternat ive Energy Sys tems
( CONAE S )
W . H . Freeman , S an Frans i s c o , 1 9 7 9

Nat i onal Res e arch Counc i l

Carbon D ioxi de and C l imate : a S e c ond As s e s sment
Repo r t of the C02/Cl imate Review Pane l , J . Smagor inski , chai rman
Nat i onal Academic Pre s s , Washington , DC , 1 9 8 2

Oerlemans , J . ; Van der Veen , C . J .

I c e Shee t s and C l imate
Kluwer Acad . Publ . , Hingham , MA , 1 9 84

Organ i s at ion for Economic Cooperat ion and Devel opment I Internat ional
Energy Aency Workshop on Carbon D ioxi de Res e arch and As s e s sment
Par i s , OECD/ I EA , 1 9 8 1

S e i de l , S . ; Keyes , D .
C an we Delay a Gre enhous e Warming?
U . S . EPA , Washington DC , 1 9 8 3

Smi th , I . M .
C arbon Diox i de from Coal Ut i l iz at ion
Technical Information Service , Internat i onal Energy Agency , Par i s , 1 9 8 2

Smith , I . M .
Carbon Diox i de - Emis s ion and Effe c ts
Rep o r t No . I CT I S/TR1 8 , l EA Coal Re se arch , London , 1 9 8 2

Sundqu i s t , E . T . ; Broecker , W . S . ( eds )

The Garbon Cycl e and Atmo spher i c C02 : Natural Var iations Archean to
Pre s ent
Amer ic an Geophys i c al Union , Washington , DC , 1 9 8 5

Tucke r , G . B .
The C02 - Cl imate Connec t ion
Aus tral i an Academy o f S c i ence , Canberra , 1 9 8 1

UNEP
Mee t ing of the S c i enti fi c Advisory Comm i t t e e of the Wor l d C l imate Imp act
S tudie s Programme
Nairob i , 2 3 - 2 7 February , 1 9 8 1

US - DOE
Carbon D i ox ide Effe c t s Re s e arch and As s e s sment Program
S e r ie s o f Pub l ications by the US Department o f Energy , CONF - 7 9 04143 , 1 9 8 0
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Van Loon , H . ( ed . )
C l imates o f the Oceans . Vo l . 1 5 , World Survey o f C l imato l o gy
E l s evi e r , Ams terdam , The Ne therlands , 1 9 84

WMO/I C SUjUNEP
On the a s s e s sment of the role of co2 on c l imate var iation and the i r impact
(based on me e t ing o f experts , V i l lach , Aus tr i a , Novemb e r 1 9 8 0 )
World Me teorological Organizat ion , Geneva , J anuary , 1 9 8 1

Wor l d Me teorological Organizat ion (WMO )

Wor l d C l imate Conferenc e : extended summar i e s o f papers and dec larat i ons
WMO , Geneva , 1 9 7 9
*
Books recommended for general re ading .
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APPENDIX 8

V i s i t to C l imate Re s earch Uni t , 2 7 . 1 1 . 1 9 8 5

Mee ting w i th Dr . T . G . Wigley , D ir e c to r .

The CRU made a s tudy o f the greenhouse e ffec t for She l l in about 1 9 8 1 on the
bas i s o f a grant for £ 10000 . Thi s was sub s e quently extended for the US DOE
and was pub l i shed by them in Augus t 1 9 84 ( I was g iven a c opy of the report ) .

I found Wigley very much had h i s fee t on the ground and was at great pains
to emphas i s e the unc e r taint i e s that s t i l l exi s t in thi s are a and the t ime
nee de d b e fore which it wi l l be po s s ib l e to reach any very de finite
conc lus ions about the greenhous e e ffe c t . Having s a i d that , he was prepared
to s t i ck h i s neck out and say that the re has been a global warming over the
l a s t 100 years , that the 0 . 5 degr e e s ( range 0 . 3 - 0 . 7 ) increase is a re sul t of
C02 bui l d - up , that we w i l l s e e a fur the r 1 - 2 degree warming over the next 40
years and that the warming will be greater in higher l at i tude s and more in
winter than in summe r . Such a r i s e would be greater than any change in the
l a s t 1000 years - at the p e ak of the las t ice age ( 1 8 000 years ago ) the
global me an temperature was 4 degrees lowe r than at pre s ent .

The global me an s e a l eve l has r i s en by s ome 1 5 cm over the las t 100 years ,
one th ird due to expans ion o f s ea water and one third due to the me l t ing o f
land i c e ( the me l t ing of s e a ice h a s n o e ffe c t on s e a l evel ) . A 4 degree
warming might resul t in the d i s appe aranc e of all Atlant i c s ea ice in the
summ e r months . By 2 0 5 0 , the range of uncer tainty of the r i s e in global mean
s e a l eve l i s 2 0 - 12 0cm .

On a t ime s cale o f decades , the role o f the oceans as a thermal buffer i s as

important as the atmo sphere and we are no t capab l e at pres ent of mo de l ing
the o c e an or i ts coup l ing w i th the atmosphere . I t is po s s ib l e that the
ne gat ive fee dback of thi s coup l ing could wipe out the forecas t r i s e . The
movement of the s ea ice boundary and the de ep water formation affe c t the
atmo sphere and European c l imate very s ens i t ive ly to the extent that Europe
saw a c o o l ing from 1040 to 1 9 7 0 whi l e the global mean tempe rature was s ta t i c
or r i s ing . I t i s very difficult t o mode l the i c e movement whi ch i s mo s tly
responding to water movements from b e l ow .

Whi l e mo s t peop l e agree that the warming w i l l b e amp l i f i e d a t h i gher

lat i tude s thi s has no t been measured becaus e i t has b e en c ountered by the
c o o l ing in the N . Atlanti c r e gion .

By the turn o f the c entury we w i l l have a much be tter idea o f what c aus e d
pas t changes - our moni toring of the uppe r atmo sphere , the oceans and s o l ar
output wi l l have imp roved immeasurab ly . For examp l e , only s ince the l ate
f i f t i e s have we had data that will allow the mode l ing of the atmo sphe r ic
behaviour in three dimens ions the data sugge s t s that whi l e the lowe r
atmo sphere i s warming , the uppe r is c o o l ing .
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Wi gley i s very inte r e s ted in the e ffec ts o f trace gas e s . He b e l i eve s that i t
i s not real i s t i c t o make pol i cy dec is ions a i med a t reduc ing the e ffec t of
C02 but that we might reasonab ly do s o for the trace gas e s . On a
one - dimens i onal ( global averaging) bas i s , the overall e ffe c t s of
chloro fluorocarbons , ni trous oxide , me thane and o zone are roughly the s ame
as C02 . In a two d imens ional mode l the e ffe c t s might be s l i ghtly l e s s but
there i s no t enough data to be c e r tain . This i s ano ther area where wi l l be
much be t t e r informed in the next 10 - 15 years .

Water vapour alone has a pos i t ive feedback but there i s great unc e r tainty
about the e ffec t of c louds . The s e c an be b o th pos i t ive and ne gat ive ,
trapp ing heat and reflec t ing incoming radiat ion . Further , the e ffe c t s o f the
s ame typ e s o f c louds c an be di fferent at di ffe rent lat i tude s . Next to the
ocean , thi s i s the b i gge s t uncertainty . For example , we are only now
begi nning to mode l the phys i c s of the pas s age of radiat ion through c louds .

The mos t di fficul t e ffec t of a global warming to pre d i c t i s that on

rainfal l . Dynamic c l imatology i s , after al l , a very new s c i ence ! In high
l at i tude s ( 6 0 - 7 0 de gree s , for example ) , rainfal l ought to increas e j us t
because o f the ra i s e d tempe rature ; we may , after all , b e doub l ing the water
vapour c ontent . Mons oon rainfal l ought to inc re as e also as shoul d the
frequency of trop ical s torms whi ch i s again a temp e rature dep endent
phenomenon . I t is much more difficul t to s ay anything about the m i d - l a t i tude
dry ing fore cas t by s ome mode l ing and even more s o to make s ens ib le c omments
on po s s ib l e change s in e quator ial regions .

M . H . Gr i ff i ths

2 8 th November 1 9 8 5 .