Supply

SUPPLY ANALYSIS
Year Annual Per Capita Supply
(in kilograms)
2013 10.98
2014 11.21
2015 11.45
2016 11.91
2017 12.14
Figure 1. Actual Supply for 2013-2017
Source: PSA

A. Arithmetic Method
1. Arithmetic Straight Line Method

2017 supply – 2013 supply

Number of years

12.14-10.98
5

=0.232

Projected Projected Supply

Years (in kilograms, per capita)
2018 2017 figure (12.14 + 12.372
0.232)
2019 2018 figure + 0.232 12.604
2020 2019 figure + 0.232 12.836
2021 2020 figure + 0.232 13.068
2022 2021 figure + 0.232 13.300
Figure 2. Projected Supply from 2018-2022 using arithmetic straight line method

Standard Deviation= 0.328097546

 2. Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method

Year Annual Per Capita Supply Increase or Decrease

(in kilograms) Percentage
2013 10.98 -
2014 11.21 2.0947%
2015 11.45 2.1409%
2016 11.91 4.0175%
2017 12.14 1.9312%
Figure 3. Increase or decrease of actual supply from 2013-2017

10.1843%
5-1
Average increase/decrease= 2.546075%

Projected Projected Supply

Years (in kilograms, per capita)
2018 2017 figure 12.14 x 12.4491
1.02546
2019 2018 figure x 1.02546 12.7660
2020 2019 figure x 1.02546 13.0911
2021 2020 figure x 1.02546 13.4244
2022 2021 figure x 1.02546 13.7661
Figure 4. Projected supply from 2018-2022 using arithmetic geometric curve method
Standard Deviation=0.465666922
B. Statistical Straight Line Method
Figure 5. Data for computing projected supply using statistical straight line method

Yc= a+bX b= ∑XY/∑ X²

Where: = 3.02/ 10
a=∑Y/N = 0.302
= 57.69/ 5 Therefore
= 11.538 Yc =11.538 + 0.302X
Projected Projected Supply
Years (in kilograms, per capita)
2018 3 12.444
2019 4 12.746
2020 5 13.048
2021 6 13.350
2022 7 13.652
Figure 6. Projected Supply using Statistical Straight Line Method
Standard Deviation= 0.427092496

Year Annual Per Capita X X² XY

(1) Supply (3) (4) (5)
(in kilograms)
Y
(2)
2013 10.98 -2 4 -21.96
2014 11.21 -1 1 -11.21
2015 11.45 0 0 0
2016 11.91 1 1 11.91
2017 12.14 2 4 24.28
∑Y= 57.69 ∑ X²= 10 ∑XY=3.02