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[client name deleted]
What would you say will be the big focus of the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting
Plus (ADMM+) next week in Hanoi? To what extent will territorial disputes be a
factor? Is it fair to say the underlying issue is that of the U.S. increasing its influence
in the region to China’s chagrin (and, in light of China’s recent behaviour, the relief of
many ASEAN countries)?
ANSWER: The ADMM Plus will have a broad and therefore non‐controversial agenda.
China has stated that the South China Sea is not on the agenda. This is technically
correct but each minister will be free to raise security issues of concern when they
address the meeting. Each minister will be able to address broad themes and
present a national perspective. No conclusions will be reached, however.
The ADMM Plus must be seen a as preliminary first step as it is not scheduled to
meet for another three years. But this deadline can be brought forward. The meeting
will adopt a Joint Declaration and this statement may set up one or more working
groups to develop a plan of action, a vision statement and such like.
Success for the ADMM Plus will be the fact that the ministers met and no one
country was singled out. Consider that among the eight dialogue partners are a
group of four to six who are allies or closely aligned (US, Japan, South Korea,
Australia… New Zealand and India). The other two, Russia and China, are relatively
isolated. While there are ten ASEAN states, six of them raised concerns about
maritime security and/or the South China Sea at the 17th ASEAN Regional Forum
meeting in July. The four who were silent were: Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia and
Laos. China will get the message but it probably will not be delivered bluntly. The
purpose will be to get China to act more cooperatively. China knows that there is a
lot at stake. For the past decade it has made the running with ASEAN in promoting
multilateral security cooperation. Now the tables are turned as the US now supports
multilateral efforts. China really has no choice but to join in or risk reviving the China
threat thesis of the early 1990s.
The ADMM Plus also provides an important venue for defence ministers to meet
their counterparts off line. Thus the meeting of the US defense secretary and the
2
Chinese minister of defence will demonstrate the value of the ADMM Plus as a
venue for this informal meeting.