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STATISTICS

PROFESSOR: JUAN JOSÉ MANJARÍN

DEGREE: BACHELOR IN BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION ACADEMIC YEAR: 2016-2017 DEGREE COURSE YEAR: FIRST SECOND THIRD FOURTH 1º SEMESTER 2º SEMESTER CATEGORY: BASIC COMPULSORY OPTIONAL NO. OF CREDITS (ECTS): 6 3 LANGUAGE: ENGLISH SPANISH TUTORIALS:

FORMAT: ON SITE PREREQUISITES: MATHEMATICS I AND II

1- SUBJECT DESCRIPTION

Statistics uses mathematical tools to organize and summarize data obtained from the real world, and to draw conclusions derived from a correct interpretation of these data. In the business world, statistics can help assess the attractiveness of a business opportunity, increase customer satisfaction, choose between different investment possibilities, analyze and improve production processes, etc. Students following this course will learn how to define the data required in different situations characterized by uncertainty, how to collect and summarize these data, and how to make decisions based on data analysis. This course also provides the theoretical and practical bases for other courses in the degree, such as Marketing Research and Business Decision Making.

2- OBJECTIVES AND SKILLS

The objective of this course is to provide students with the tools to organize and understand data and to make use of this information in business applications. At the end of the course you should be able to:

Describe data by means of graphs or numbers, and understand in which contexts each of these descriptive tools is useful.

Understand patterns of randomness that can affect business activities and relate them to known probability distributions.

Understand the differences between population and sample distributions

Read the most common distribution tables.

Derive confidence intervals for a parameter.

Make inferences by understanding the concept of null and alternative hypotheses and interpret outputs of hypothesis testing.

Test for differences between populations.

Use statistical methods for decision-making in a business context.

Additionally, the course will focus on the acquisition or reinforcement of generic skills:

A. The ability to summarize and present information in a meaningful way.

B. The ability to build an abstract model to address an economic problem.

C.

The ability to quickly identify the tools that are useful in business situations.

3- METHODOLOGY AND WEIGHTING

All the lectures will include some examples and will show how to solve problems using basic computer tools. Some sessions will be dedicated to application exercises and cases only. Before all sessions, you are required to read the textbook sections as indicated in the syllabus. Reading the textbook in advance will allow you to get the most out of each lecture. When reading the textbook portions prior to each lecture, you must look at the examples but you do not need to solve them.

You will have to prepare a number of exercises before most sessions, and be ready to discuss them during the class. Participation will be graded. At the beginning of some ses- sions, a brief quiz covering some aspects of the reading and/or exercises will be given. Marks obtained on these quizzes will be included in the final grade.

 Teaching Methodology Weighting Estimated time a student should dedicate to prepare for and participate in : Lectures (40)% 60 hours Discussions (10)% 15 hours Exercises (20)% 30 hours Group work (30)% 45 hours Other Individual studying (0)% 0 hours TOTAL 100% 150 hours are required for a 6 ECTs course (30 sessions); 75 hours, for 3ECTs (15 sessions) 4- CONTENT

All the required readings are from the compulsory textbook “Statistics for Business and Economics”, Newbold, Carlson & Thorne, 8 th global edition. Reading a section means reading the text AND the examples.

UNIT 1: INTRODUCTION. GENERAL CONCEPTS. SESSION 1: INTRODUCTION

Presentation of the course syllabus and objectives.

Introduction to the uses of statistics and the different categories of variables

SESSION 2: EXPERIMENT DESIGN AND SAMPLING METHODS

Statistical vs. Systematic Errors

Random, stratified and cluster samplings

Biases

UNIT 2: DESCRIBING DATA: GRAPHICAL AND NUMERICAL METHODS SESSION 3, 4: PRESENTING DATA IN TABLES AND CHARTS

Presentation of some graphical tools used to summarize data of different types

Frequency distributions and Histograms

Required readings: Chapter 1, sections 1.3, 1.4, 1.5 (skip the section on stem-and-leaf displays

on pages 46, 47)

SESSION 5: NUMERICAL MEASURES TO DESCRIBE DATA Measures of central tendency and variability Other measures of shape

Measures of relationships between variables

Required readings: Chapter 2, sections 2.1 to 2.3

UNIT 3: PROBABILITY

SESSIONS 6, 7, 8: PROBABILITY AND ITS POSTULATES. BIVARIATE PROBABILITIES. BAYES’ THEOREM

Random experiments, outcomes and events

Computing the probabilities of processes of interest.

Probabilities of joint events; Joint and marginal probabilities

Conditional probabilities.

Required readings: Chapter 3, section 3.3 to 3.5

UNIT 4: RANDOM VARIABLES: DISCRETE AND CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLES, AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS.

SESSIONS

12: RANDOM VARIABLES; DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES;

IMPORTANT DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Definition of random variables

Discrete random variables: probability functions and properties (expected value and variance)

Binomial and Poisson probability distributions

Jointly distributed discrete random variables

Covariance and correlation

Required readings: Chapter 4, sections 4.1 to 4.7

9,

10,

11,

SESSIONS 13, 14, 15: CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLES; NORMAL DISTRIBUTION AND OTHER IMPORTANT CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTIONS

Definitions and properties

The Normal distribution

Other continuous distributions

Required readings: Chapter 5, sections 5.1 to 5.3, and 5.5

UNIT 5: SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS OF SAMPLE STATISTICS

SESSION 16: SAMPLING; SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS OF SAMPLE MEANS

Brief introduction to sampling methods

Random samples

Distribution of sample means

Central Limit Theorem

Required readings: Chapter 6, sections 6.1 and 6.2

SESSION 17: SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS OF OTHER IMPORTANT STATISTICS

Sampling distributions of sample proportions

Sampling distributions of sample variances

Required readings: Chapter 6, sections 6.3 and 6.4

SESSION 18: REVIEW SESSION

SESSION 19: MID-TERM EXAM

UNIT 6: ESTIMATION: POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION SESSIONS 20, 21: CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ESTIMATION

Properties of point estimators

Confidence intervals for the mean and variance of a normal distribution

Confidence interval of the mean of a non-nomal distribution

Required readings: Chapter 7, sections 7.1, 7.2 and 7.3

SESSION 22: CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ESTIMATION FOR A POPULATION PROPORTION

Confidence interval for population proportion (large sample)

Sample size determination

Required readings: Chapter 7, sections 7.4 and 7.7

UNIT 7: HYPOTHESIS TESTING

SESSIONS 23, 24, 25: HYPOTHESIS TESTING: SINGLE POPULATION

Null and alternative hypotheses

Test of the mean and variacne of a normal distribution

Test of the population proportion

Required readings: Chapter 9, section 9.1 to 9.4

SESSION 26: POWER OF A TEST; EXERCISES

Assessing the power of a test; types of errors encountered

Required readings: Chapter 9, section 9.5

SESSION 27: MID-TERM EXAM REVIEW

SESSIONS 28, 29, 30: HYPOTHESIS TESTING FOR TWO POPULATIONS

Tests of the difference between two population means: independent and paired samples

Test of the difference between two population proportions

Required readings: Chapter 10, section 10.1 to 10.3, and 10.5

UNIT 9: COMPARISON OF SEVERAL POPULATION MEANS SESSIONS 31, 32, 33: ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE (ANOVA)

One-way Anova

Introduction to randomized block design

Required readings: Chapter 15, sections 15.1, 15.2, 15.4

UNIT 10: SAMPLING METHODS

SESSIONS 34, 35, 36: STRATIFIED AND CLUSTER SAMPLING

Stratified and cluster sampling

Nonprobabilistic methods

Required readings: course material. Session 37: Exercises SESSION 38: REVIEW SESSION

SESSION 39: GROUP PRESENTATION (TO BE CONFIRMED) Requirements: Submit the final report.

SESSION 40: FINAL EXAM

Note: The final exam includes all the topics covered during the course (from the first to the last session.)

5- EVALUATION SYSTEM (ORDINARY AND EXTRAORDINARY)

Your final grade in the course will be based on both individual and group work of different characteristics that will be weighted in the following way:

 A. Class participation 10% C. quizzes based on problem sets 15% D. Mid-term Exam 25% E. Final group presentation & report 20% F. Final Exam 30% TOTAL 100%

D. CLASS PARTICIPATION

Three main criteria will be used in reaching judgment about your class participation:

Depth and Quality of Contribution: The most important dimension of participation concerns what it is that you are saying. A high quality comment reveals depth of insight, rigorous use of case evidence, consistency of argument, and realism.

Moving Your Peers’ Understanding Forward: Great ideas can be lost through poor presentation. A high quality presentation of ideas must consider the relevance and timing of comments, and the flow and content of the ensuing class discussion. It demands comments that are concise and clear, and that are conveyed with a spirit of involvement in the discussion at hand.

Frequency: Frequency refers to the attainment of a threshold quantity of contributions that is sufficient for making a reliable assessment of comment quality. The logic is simple: if contributions are too few, one cannot reliably assess the quality of your remarks. However, once threshold quantity has been achieved, simply increasing the number of times you talk does not automatically improve your evaluation. Beyond the threshold, it is the quality of your comments that must improve. In particular, one must be especially careful that in claiming more than a fair share of “airtime”, quality is not sacrificed for quantity. Finally, your attempts at participation should not be such that the instructor has to “go looking for you”. You should be attempting to get into the debate on a regular basis.

E. QUIZZES At the beginning of some sessions, you will be given a short quiz based on required readings and exercises for the last sessions

F. FINAL GROUP PRESENTATION AND REPORT

Each group should be composed of 4 to 5 students and must prepare a group report due at the end of the course (more details about intermediate and final deadline will be periodically provided during the course.) The group project will consist in the identification of a real-world problem, taken from business or any other field of interest, the collection of relevant data, the statistical

analysis of the data, and the final interpretation of the obtained results. Every submission will be delivered using turnitin following the appropriate link provided on

campus online. At the end of the semester, you must submit the full report including all sections. The final version should include edited versions of the previously submitted sections following the recommendations of your professor. Make sure the report is easy to read. Consider using bullets, headings, etc., to make it easy to

follow. Avoid being too technical in the report: provide a fact-based rationale for your comments

but make sure that your explanations and recommendations are understandable to someone with

very little statistical knowledge.

G. MID-TERM AND FINAL EXAM

There will be one mid-term and one final exam. For these exams, you must bring your own calculator (phones, tablets, laptops and other electronic devices are not allowed). You are also allowed to bring one two-sided sheet of paper in the mid-term (two sheets in the final exam) with any formula that you think could be helpful. In order to pass the course, you need a minimum grade of 3.5 in the final exam. If your grade in the final exam does not reach the threshold value of 3.5, you will fail the course, even in the case in which your weighted average (computed using the table above) exceeds 5.0.

RETAKE POLICY

Each student has 4 chances to pass any given course distributed in two consecutive academic years (regular period and June period).

Students who do not comply with the 70% attendance rule will lose their 1st and 2 nd chance, and go directly to the 3rd one (they will need to enrol again in this course next academic year).

Grading for retakes will be subject to the following rules:

Students failing the course in the first regular period will have to do a retake in June (except those not complying with the attendance rules, which are banned from this possibility).

Dates and location of the June retakes will be posted in advance and will not be changed. Please take this into consideration when planning your summer.

The June retakes will consist on a comprehensive exam. The grade will depend only on the performance in this exam; continuous evaluation over the semester will not be taken into account. This exam will be designed bearing in mind that the passing grade is 5 and the maximum grade that can be attained is 8.

The non-June retakes (this happens in the ordinary period: students in their third attempt) will consist on

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BIBLIOGRAPHY

The following is the textbook for the course. You are required to obtain a copy and read the indicated sections in advance, i.e., before each lecture.

COMPULSORY Title: Statistics for Business and Economics Author: Newbold, Paul, Carlson, William L. & Thorne, Betty Publisher / Edition / Year: Pearson Prentice Hall / 8 th global edition/ 2013 ISBN / ISSN: 978-0-273-76706-0 Medium: PRINT ELECTRONIC

Or RECOMMENDED Title: OpenIntro Statistics, 3 rd Edition Author: Diez, David; Barr Christopher; Cetinkaya-Rundel, Mine Publisher / Edition / Year: This textbook is available under a Creative Commons license. Visit

Medium:

PRINT

ELECTRONIC

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PROFESSOR’S BIO

JUAN JOSÉ MANJARÍN