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MEMORANDUM

To: Interested Parties


From: John McLaughlin
Re: New York 4th Congressional District Survey Results
Date: October 7, 2010

Methodology:

McLaughlin & Associates conducted a survey of 300 likely voters in New York’s 4th
Congressional District on October 6, 2010. All interviews were conducted via telephone
by professional interviewers. Respondents were randomly selected within predetermined
geographic units structured to correlate with actual voter turnout. The survey of 300
likely voters has an accuracy of +/- 5.6% at a 95% confidence interval.

Major Findings:

Fran Becker and Carolyn McCarthy are statistically tied on the ballot for U.S. Congress
in New York’s 4th Congressional District (45% to 46%). Only 9% of voters are
undecided. Since the last poll in June, Fran Becker’s support has increased by 20 points,
while Carolyn McCarthy’s support remains unchanged (25%/45%).

If the election for US Congress were held today, and the candidates were Fran Becker, the Republican and
Conservative Party candidate, and Carolyn McCarthy, the Democrat, for whom would you vote? If you
had to choose today, which candidate are you leaning towards, Fran Becker, the Republican and
Conservative Party candidate, or Carolyn McCarthy, the Democrat?
6/10 10/10
Fran Becker 25% 45%
Carolyn McCarthy 45% 46%
Undecided 31% 9%

Carolyn McCarthy has a net positive opinion rating of 44% favorable to 37%
unfavorable. Since June, her favorable rating has decreased by eight points from 52% to
44%, while her unfavorable rating has increased.

Please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each of the following. If you have
no opinion or have never heard of the person, just say so. “Carolyn McCarthy”
6/10 10/10
Favorable 52% 44%
Unfavorable 34% 37%
No Opinion 12% 17%
Never Heard Of 2% 3%

_______________________________________________________________
1
919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447
566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, NY 10913 * Phone: 845-365-2000 * FAX: 845-365-2008
www.mclaughlinonline.com
Conclusions:

Although Fran Becker and Carolyn McCarthy are statistically tied on the ballot for U.S.
Congress, the momentum in this race is with Fran Becker. Over the last several months,
Fran Becker has increased his support significantly, while Carolyn McCarthy’s support
remains stagnant. In addition, Carolyn McCarthy’s ratio of positives to negatives has
worsened since June.

Questions and Demographics:

1 If the election for US Congress were held today, and the candidates were Fran Becker,
the Republican and Conservative Party candidate, and Carolyn McCarthy, the Democrat,
for whom would you vote?

1. Becker
2. McCarthy
3. Undecided

IF UNDECIDED, ASK:
2 If you had to choose today, which candidate are you leaning towards, Fran Becker, the
Republican and Conservative Party candidate, or Carolyn McCarthy, the Democrat?

1. Becker
2. McCarthy
3. Undecided

3. Please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each of the
following. If you have no opinion or have never heard of the person, just say so.
“Carolyn McCarthy”

1. Favorable
2. Unfavorable
3. No Opinion
4. Never Heard Of

Ideology:
Total
Liberal 19%
Moderate 34%
Conservative 39%

_______________________________________________________________
2
919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447
566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, NY 10913 * Phone: 845-365-2000 * FAX: 845-365-2008
www.mclaughlinonline.com
Party Affiliation:
Total
Republican 41%
Democrat 39%
Independent 12%
Conservative 4%
Other 1%

Gender:
Total
Male 48%
Female 52%

Area:
Total
Hempstead 87%
North Hempstead 13%

_______________________________________________________________
3
919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447
566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, NY 10913 * Phone: 845-365-2000 * FAX: 845-365-2008
www.mclaughlinonline.com