Technology Making It Worse

by Philip Atkinson
"When the life of people is unmoral, and their relations are not based on love, but on egoism,
then all technical improvements, the increase of man's power over nature, steam, electricity, the
telegraph, every machine, gunpowder, and dynamite, produce the impression of dangerous toys
placed in the hands of children."—the diary of Leo Tolstoy (1828 - 1910)

Making Things Worse Not Better

Technology is the artificial enhancement of human power. It should make us stronger and
smarter, however our demented community is discovering that it now has the opposite effect.
Nuclear power has terrified and paralysed its creators, while the improved cleverness and
flexibility of our machines have caused social chaos and economic stagnation.

Australia—A Nuclear Free Zone (1990s)

All over this country are signs announcing the existence of nuclear free zones, erected by
councils to announce the unpopularity of nuclear technology. Our nation has no nuclear power
generating stations, or nuclear weapons, despite our growing need for energy and the inadequacy
of our military. Such concerns have been ignored by the electorate in favour of conventional
(old) technologies. Any government that tried to ignore this prejudice would be deposed by a
wave of public hysteria from a trembling electorate.

The End Of The Need To Work

Benefits Of Technology Thwarted By Our Attitude To Employment
My job for fifteen years (1975 - 1990) had been to write computer programs to make people
redundant. I was not alone; throughout the western world an army of programmers have been
working night and day to get rid of as many jobs as possible. Each job discarded meant improved
productivity, and reduced costs. Because of our work, businesses throughout the world have
become much more efficient, able to supply better goods and services, at a cheaper price.
However it would seem we have wasted our time. Industry and commerce can't utilise our
improvements because there is no demand. There is no demand because people have no money.
Nobody has any money, because so many people are out of work.

Luddites' Fear
The possibility of the loss of employment was first realised during the onset of the machine age.
The invention and application of the steam engine heralded the industrial revolution. It
dramatically extended the power and ability of the community. No longer was human strength
and endurance the limiting factor in achievements. Machines could be constructed to work
harder faster cheaper and more reliably than any group of people, however the initial
implementation of machines meant mass unemployment and their use was bitterly opposed.
People felt that such innovations were permanently robbing the community of jobs. The Luddite
movement spontaneously formed which protested this change and attacked the new machinery
along with its owners.
Luddites Wrong
Eventually though it was discovered that these new engines did not destroy employment, but
changed and increased it - the Luddites were wrong. The explosion in raw products meant huge
increase in the work needed to refine them to make them saleable, as well as a necessary
corresponding increase in control and administration. The newly harnessed power extended
wealth and employment for everyone. Our society became significantly richer and the Luddite's
fear was forgotten.

Luddites Wrong Only In Timing Not Principle

The communal fright which then proved to be groundless has left a permanent false impression.
It has become folk-law that though machines appear to create unemployment, this is only
temporary. Regardless of appearances, mass retrenchments will be followed by even greater
demands for workers in some new arena — this is a fallacy.

Machines Displace People From Workplace

Machines do not create jobs, they definitely eradicate the need for human effort. The fact that the
engines of the industrial revolution created jobs was a reflection of their shortcomings, they were
clumsy and stupid. Exploiting their potential meant employing people to make up for these
inadequacies. But this did not mean that mechanised systems would always be dependent on
human assistance. The development of artificial intelligence and advances in mechanical
miniaturisation have overcome these shortcomings, automation has stopped generating jobs since
1980.

Machines Do Work Better Than People, Making Humans Obsolete In The Workplace
The truth is not only are people now surplus, but a liability. People make mistakes, machines do
not. People get tired and cranky, machines do not. People are erratic and unreliable, machines are
not. People think and act slowly, machines do not. People have very definite limitations of
endurance and concentration, machines do not. These human short-comings mean that every
modern system is designed to minimise or exclude human intervention; so just as horses became
obsolete and were phased out of the workplace, so have people.

Machines Are Taking Over The Work

In every field of human endeavour smart machines are making improvements by supplanting
workers. Jet planes are flown by computer, there is no need for a navigator, and the result is
superior to any human effort. The weapons systems that protect warships need to react so quickly
that any human intervention disables their effectiveness. The whole system operates without the
use of a single person.

Machines Make Goods

The manufacture of goods is being automated. Whole factories build consumer goods without
employing anyone. No human can compete with the relentless, accurate, speed of the robot.

Provide Superior Bank Teller Service

Automatic Teller Machines provide a continual, convenient banking service. No human agency
could supply such a benefit at such a low cost. Throughout our community goods and services
are being improved by reducing the number of people required.
Machines Administer
Even the administration of our society is being taken over by clever machines. All large
corporations are really computerised systems. The company officials the public sees are just the
servants of these entities. From when the public initiate business, to when they pay the final bill,
despite the human face presented to them, the affair is primarily conducted by an electronic
brain. The communications they receive are generated automatically. The cheques, invoices and
reminders are sent without anyone in the business being aware of the transaction. It often only
receives human consideration in exceptional circumstances, such as when the bill has not been
paid within ninety days. Then the machine will instruct an officer to take action.

No Industry Safe
As I write these words in July, 1999, the Internet is threatening newspapers, the music industry,
television broadcasting and even the movie industry. Instant up to date news on many and varied
subjects is available, along with pictures, at the touch of a keyboard, via the Internet; a fact
which directly threatens newspapers, if not the whole printing industry. Similarly music can be
copied onto computer files and played without the need for records or compact discs,
undermining the CD creation and publication industries; television programs and commercial
films can be copied and viewed in the same way, on home computers or home theatres, making
television channels and movie theatres unnecessary. Industries now share the same uncertainty as
workers as they do not know how long they will be required.

The Existence Of Libraries Under Threat

The spread and popularity of the Internet is threatening the existence of public libraries, which
find themselves increasingly unable to match the service provided by home computers. Already
(1990s) they are reducing their collection of books to make way for a growing collection of
audio and audio-visual media, as well as supplying personal computers that can access the
Internet.

Foundation Of Knowledge In Danger

The newly available media replacing printed books are selected for their popularity, which has
become the controlling factor for librarians. Serious works by authors such as Gibbon, Locke and
Hume are slowly relegated through of lack of demand to the stack, before their inevitable
abandonment. The library services controlled by various councils are slowly adapting to growth
of technology by becoming Internet sites themselves, but these are not built around the classical
works that once made up the heart of every public library. The selection of works being digitised
is invariably parochial and populist, being concerned only with Australian antiquity and local
issues (see letter from the Queensland Cultural Centre). Though their web pages often include a
list of sites that do offer some traditional works, these recommended links carry no guarantee of
accuracy or availability, nor are they connected to the library in any official capacity.

Certainty Vanishes In A Flash

Once knowledge existed on the printed page, which was a stable medium, difficult to alter and
easy to read, and insensibly supplied certainty. Laws, agreements, observations, the transactions
of a communal mind, could all be written down to be later produced to allay any doubts or
suspicions. Promises, ownership and wealth became embedded in the certainty supplied by
contracts, title deeds and paper money. Naturally this was not fool-proof but it gave the
community a good deal of certainty. But this certainty is now being eroded by electronic
replacements; fast, convenient and beyond the power of an individual to check. The message
once heralded by a solid, unchanging, document is now proclaimed by a computer screen. The
tangible proof supplied by paper has been replaced by a medium that can be changed faster than
the blink of an eye, without leaving a single trace. Certainty has vanished in a flash.

Technology Controls Truth

The growing inability of people to know is confirmed as a machine reveals:

Financial Status The replacement of currency with electronic banking means a machine says:
If a bill is due — How much money is in an account. (Balances can now evaporate) — If credit
is good.

Land Ownership Tangible paper Land Title is replaced by a computer display (see Queensland
Land Titling system)

Guilt or Innocence dictated by: Radar cameras — Red light cameras — Breathalysers — DNA
testing

Knowledge The words of scientists and sages is no longer certain. Since books are rapidly being
replaced by computer display, technology has made obtaining information easy in principle, but
in practice there is no one charged (1999) with ensuring the information online is genuine.

—Technology now tells us what is true, because it is becoming increasingly beyond the power of
people to be sure themselves.

Machines Offer Huge Potential

Artificial intelligence offers huge opportunities to the human race which include:

1. Tiny Bureaucracy: by supplanting human industry with automation; and Australia is

uniquely placed to take immediate advantage. The small population coupled with its high
standard of technology and political stability would allow the rapid automation of its public
service. By giving the ability to every citizen to access government computer resources direct,
we could:

i. Retrench nearly every public servant

ii. Dispense with nearly every building left vacant by this retrenchment.

iii. Save the huge annual cost of the recruitment, training, supply a management of this no longer
necessary army of clerks.

iv. Save the huge amount of annual resources, paper clips, paper, lighting, heating, desks etc no
longer consumed by our existing public service.

v. Get the fastest, cheapest, most efficient administration ever.

2. Freedom From Wage Slavery: for any citizen who chooses could receive a government
pension instead of working for a living, and conversely the community would be free from
having to employ the unwilling or the unable.

3. Tertiary Education For All: blessed with unlimited leisure citizens could become educated
to the level they chose.

4. Extended Research: the massive amount of free time would allow a huge extension into
research.

5. Increase Of Wealth And Population: simply by using the available technology and those
citizens now displaced from the work-force. Australia (if not the world) needs more drinking
water than that supplied by the weather. This need can be met by using Nuclear technology to
desalinate water from the sea and pipe it inland. Such a reliable supply would allow huge areas
of Australia to be farmed and populated. Fast rail and communication networks could be built to
support this and existing development. The oceans around our shores could be harvested in the
same way that land is now farmed. Cities could be built on the Moon— or whatever project grips
the public imagination. All it requires is the will to proceed.

Actual Impact Of Artificial Intelligence (circa 2000)

But the reality is very different; we are not being enriched, but reduced to penury, by clever
machines. Because the money supply is traditionally connected to the number of people
employed, as employment shrinks, so does the money in circulation. Instead of rectifying this
problem by issuing all citizens displaced from the work force with a regular ration of money —
the dole — the community does the opposite. Except in those particular (increasingly rare)
circumstances that qualify the unemployed for dole, any citizen without a job is refused an
income and is no longer able to spend. That means the unemployed have no money to be a
customer, they can no longer give their money to others who, in turn, would give this money to
others, etc, so the whole community loses the money the unemployed do not earn.

Money For Nothing

Offering to pay people not to work invariable generates outrage in many citizens. It is clearly
rewarding the lazy, as well as creating money from nowhere. Both these points are true, but they
do not matter. It is unfortunate that the hard-working are just as unnecessary as those who are
idle by nature, but this is a result of technology. And since the adoption of the use of paper
money and credit notes, money is generated by the stroke of a pen. Which means there is no
limit to the amount of money available to a community, so no community should suffer through
lack of money, for as Sir Josiah Stamp (former president of The Bank Of England) said:

"The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the
most astounding piece of sleight-of-hand that was ever invented."

Money Is The Blood Of A Community

The purpose of money is to allow the distribution of goods throughout the community. It does
not benefit the farmer to have tons of turnips, or the mine owner to have tons of coal, or the
garage owner to have gallons of petrol, if no one can buy these goods. All manufacturers need
customers with money, which is why money was invented. The sole and only purpose of money
is to distribute goods. It performs a function for the community similar to that performed by
blood to a living body. If blood is cut off to a part of the anatomy, that part withers and dies, and
the whole body suffers accordingly. Whereas the more extensive the circulation of blood, the
healthier the individual. It is the same with money and the community; the more extensive the
supply of incomes, the healthier the community, and vice-versa. The whole community is
rewarded when someone who would otherwise have no income is given a wage. People do not
eat money, but they pass it on to others by becoming their customers. And these recipients in
turn use the extra money to supply extra custom to others. And so on.

How A Community Circulates Its Money Is Critical

Most communal poverty is caused not by a failure of production but by a failure in the
circulation of money. The 'Great Depression' occurred not because our community had run short
of something tangible such as food, or oil, but because the circulation of money failed. The
community was just as rich before the depression as during the depression, but it relied upon
mass employment for the circulation of money. The moment employment faltered then the
money supply reduced which forced more unemployment etc. The simple truth is that a source of
money must be given to the unemployed and then recovered by tax to maintain the necessary
circulation of money. Otherwise we all starve.

The Real Cause of The Great Depression

Money is a tool created by communal understanding, its only value is that supplied by a
community's understanding. So any shortcomings in the use of money must be shortcomings in
the understanding of the nature of money by the community. The Great Depression was not
caused by a general slump in share values; this event only exposed a flaw in our understanding
of the circulation of money. There was no need for the circulation of money to fail because
employment failed, this failure is easily repaired by establishing a method of supplying money to
the jobless—the dole. [This small conditional payment is the one thing separating the current
(circa 2000) financial recession from the Great Depression.]

Communal Understanding Is No Longer Sensible

To repair the failing circulation of money (it goes to fewer and fewer citizens) the dole should be
extended to every adult without a job. Unfortunately such a sensible step requires a sensible
community. Our community is unable to overcome the prejudice of the Protestant work ethic,
which insists that only workers get paid. And this lack of commonsense is only confirmed by
official attempts to resolve the problem created by the failure of the circulation of money.

Official Attempts To Deal With Unemployment

Governments faced with the popular demand to fix unemployment, but restrained by the need to
indulge popular feelings, find they are unable to do anything but fiddle with the statistics that
indicate the extent of the problem. These statistics are the result of a random survey of dwellings
carried out by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, where one person only is questioned from each
residence. This immediately makes the result a reflection only of the opinions of the chosen
sample, who could be unwilling, or unable, to state the truth.
Indicators Uncertain And Variable
By varying the definition of unemployed the truth is distorted. This random statistical selection
omits all people who claim to belong to any of the following categories:

• Have given up looking for a job

• Have found at least one hours paid work a week
• Have worked at least one hours unpaid work in the family business
• Perform voluntary work
• Are on training courses

The published amended figures then allow governments to maintain their electoral hopes by
hiding the community's slow and inevitable descent into poverty.

Signs Of Poverty Ignored

While the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) unemployment
rate for September 1999 was 7.2%, the media were also reporting:

i. Whole towns whose continued economic existence seemed to depend upon welfare handouts
ii. An increase in home loan defaulters, despite low interest rates.
iii. A doubling in the number of dole recipients

Real Figures Ignored And Unpublished

The truth about our economic welfare can easily be confirmed by a statistical analysis of the
figures held by the Australian taxation department. This would leave no doubt:

a. If the majority were losing or gaining spending power.

b. The number of people and the amounts involved in such a trend.
c. What percentage of adults were earning at least the annual average wage, and what percentage
were below, or significantly below this standard

And these figures could easily be grouped by age, sex and financial year thereby supplying an
accurate indication of what is occurring in the economy, but this is not done.

Unpleasant Truth Ignored

No mention is made of the awful change in the nature of employment. In the 1950s and 1960s
citizens were the masters of their fate who could obtain a career for life in an honourable
occupation by committing themselves to long years of study. Then the biggest concern was
avoiding ending up in a dead-end job. That is adopting an occupation that only supplied a wage
and lacked opportunities for advancement or status or job satisfaction. Now the act of winning
employment is considered sufficient reason to be grateful, no matter what the job, or for how
long it lasts ( few, if any, jobs are now considered for life). Citizens are now (1999) clearly
slaves to the demands of commerce, but silence reigns over this degradation in the prospects of
the whole community.

Ominous Trends Ignored

Little media attention is directed upon the fate of men who once had self-respect, identity and
money, who suddenly find themselves impoverished, jobless and forgotten; with the skills and
wisdom that took a life-time to acquire, made obsolete almost overnight by technical
improvements. Little public concern is expressed at the discarding of experience and maturity
from the workplace, leaving only the young and inexperienced in control (see sinking feeling).
Nor does officialdom remark upon the sudden proliferation of menial activities such as:

• The appearance of people who clean car window screens at intersections

• Mobile car washing services
• Mobile dog washing services
• Young men working as supermarket check-out operators

—All of which suggest an ominous reversal in career aspirations.

Communal Denial
Instead of resolving the problems caused by the new, clever, technology, and discovering how to
maximise their huge promise, the community engages in denial. It is futile pointing out the truth
to government agencies; they will merely repeat that somehow jobs lost by technology in one
field will be magically recreated in another. (See letter from the minister). Our government
(1999) is still trying to conjure up jobs, while it punishes the unemployed for their condition. The
opinion of an Australian prime minister and his employment minister attacking dole recipients
reflect views that were popular during the Great Depression. These erroneous ideas obtained the
terrible poverty of those years, and prevented America, Great Britain and France from ever
discovering how to deal with a major financial recession. History reveals that Nazi Germany
found a solution to the slump, and it was only the Second World War that finally ended it for
most of the remaining countries. But this invaluable lesson has been ignored. Our inept
governments utter the same claims which were popular in the 1920s, 1930s and 1940s, despite
their complete failure, as they deliberately repeat the mistakes of the past by insisting upon
reducing the money supply in a society wilting from lack of money.

The Result Of Delusion

The community is trapped by its own delusion that nothing has been changed by technology. So
we are being slowly crushed between our immovable prejudice that people must have
employment to get paid, and the irresistible reality of machines displacing humans from the
work-place. And this has inevitable effects:

1. An Accelerating Poverty Cycle:

The money shortage forces firms (including government) to economise by cutting staff, which
further reduces the money in circulation, which further reduces the number of customers able to
buy services, which forces further staff cuts, etc. Naturally welfare budgets are no exception and
they are also slashed; diminishing charity along with work. And the community slides into an
ever-accelerating poverty cycle.

2. Exploitation By Essential Services:

Corporations that are in control of essential services find themselves able to hold the community
to ransom, e.g

i. Telecommunications giant Telstra has revealed its parasitic nature by:

a. Posting huge profits as well as shedding thousands of jobs
b. Introducing a fee for consumers who do not pay their bills fast enough.
c. Refusing to supply adequate services to remote areas because it is not profitable

ii. The main banks have posted huge profits as they continually discover new service charges
while cutting their staff and reducing the number of bank branches. And since the year 2000
credit card regulations have allowed the banks to charge a late fee of $20 for any customer who
fails to pay the minimum amount two months running. Actions revealing the short-sighted and
parasitic nature of bank executives.

3. Increasing Social Confusion:

i. There is no financial security, no one can be sure they will not lose their job. This creates an
atmosphere of anxiety and uncertainty.
ii. The sense of identity once supplied by regular employment has been lost. A well paid systems
analyst can become an unpaid job-seeker over night; a competent architect, can become a
harassed taxi driver; a respected manager can suddenly discover that the only work available is
as an office junior.
iii. Skills and qualifications no longer guarantee employment, which undermines the purpose of
schools, colleges and universities.
iv. Rise In Crime; poverty, idleness and despair can only increase criminal activity.

4. Erosion Of The Quality Of Goods:

Lack of money encourages short cuts in manufacture, so there is a continual and increasing
erosion of the quality of all goods. (see Less is More)

5. Erosion Of The Quality Of Services:

Typical examples of deteriorating service, are the condition of public hospitals and the police
force, but the evidence is everywhere. In response to a written complaint from my wife about a
lack of seating, Qantas Airways Limited took two weeks to give this reply:

"Unfortunately due to staff shortages there is a backlog but we will get back to you as soon as
possible". signed Fran Williams, Customer Relations, Queensland — 7th May 1999

This major Australian airline, in a time of mass unemployment, has not enough staff to answer
their mail! Anyone wishing to see staff shortages in action just has to attend the enquiry counter
of a large grocery store on a Saturday morning (1999) to see workers overwhelmed by demand.
Or go to a bank, either The National Australia Bank or ANZ. The firms simply do not employ
enough staff, preferring instead to provide inadequate service.

Nevertheless the most common and frustrating demonstration of deteriorating service obtained
by insufficient staff is the appearance of the now common phone queues (see Australian and UK
experience). Nowadays (2000) telephone requests to many businesses (including banks and
government) involve spending an unspecified time (perhaps hours) just sitting holding onto a
telephone handset in the hopes of reaching a human operator, before the call is cut off or closing
time is reached or patience expires.
Tyrannised By Technology
The Industrial Revolution (1760-1830) secured unprecedented wealth for Western Civilization
by unleashing the power of technology, but this new power only enriched the community when it
was the servant of genius. As communal understanding has decayed, the erstwhile servant has
become the new master. Our machines, which now embrace miniaturisation and artificial
intelligence, are relentlessly stagnating and impoverishing our community; which is further
cowed by its terror of nuclear power. Technology is no longer our enriching slave but our
ruinous tyrant.
 ISSUES IN INTERACTIVE COMMUNICATION:
THE IMPACT OF THE NEW TECHNOLOGIES ON SOCIETY
Some Final Predictions:From Sure-fire Bets...to...When Pigs Fly

by Dr. Edward J. Forrest, & Dr. Michael Chamberlain, & Eric Chambers

Copyright © 1996 Edward J. Forrest. All Rights Reserved.

Table of Contents

 Information/On-line, Anytime, On-Anything

 For Home Shopping or Shopping for Homes
 Interactive Entertainment vs. Invasion of Privacy
 Predictions in Education
 In Conclusion

Objectives
Not all innovations are successful and few predictions become fact. Thus, in this final chapter, our look
at tomorrow's world of interactive cyberspace
can be regarded as equal parts learned pronostication and wishful thinking.
Albeit, after reading this chapter (and this book) the reader should be able to more readily envision how
the emerging interactive communication technologies could/should impact on our lifestyles, mediastyles
and workstyles by 2010.

Orienting Questions

What are some of the key predictions regarding the emerging interactive technologies impact on our
everday activities..... such as communicating with family, friends and colleques? .....shopping, banking,
traveling, learning....? How are our overall information and entertainment consumption patterns going
to be altered?

Key terms:

Personal Digital Assistants (PDA's)

Intelligent Agents (knowbots)
Global Positioning System (GPS)
Cybercash
Business Nets
Virtual Trade Show
Digital Videodisc (DVD)
Theory Of Uniform Influences & The Magic Bullet

Before predicting our lifestyle, mediastyle and workstyle in the near and ultimate future, it is a good
idea to begin with an examination of where we are at today. Accordingly, some baseline statistics are in
order. A recent (September 1994) Gallup survey conducted for Interactive Age registered the following:

PERCENT OF ADULTS IN U.S. THAT OWN OR USE REGULARLY NOW:

(cf. Interactive Age , September 26, 1994, pg.102)___________________

* CABLE TV....................................................... 70.0%

* HOME COMPUTER......................................... 33.6%
* CD-ROM........................................................... 23.9%
* PAY-PER-VIEW CABLE MOVIES.............. 11.5%
* ONLINE SERVICES........................................ 6.3%
* INTERNET SERVICES................................... 7.4%
* HOME SHOPPING............................................ 14.4%

Now, in terms of our learned (and/or wishful) prediction, it it believed that were Gallup & Interactive
Age to conduct this same survey in eight years, every variable would register 70% plus. Moreover, the
list of communication technologies that people own and are using on a regular basis will include
Personal Digital Assistants (PDA's), intelligent agents (knowbots) and Global Positioning Systems (GPS).

PDA's:
Indeed, a driving force behind most research and development in the communications field today is
mobility. Smaller, lighter, multifunctional devices--and programs to run them-- are pouring on the
market, with names like Envoy, Magic Link, Marco, Simon and Zoomer. Most of these devices combine
two basic technologies of the information age: computing and telephony-- a union that promises more
than the sum of its parts.
The idea is to stuff as much information and as many communication tools as possible into a small
package-- called a personal digital assistant....weighing less than 2lbs.'s... operate off a regular phone
line or cellular connection and send and recieve faxes, voice mail or e-mail...keep appointment
schedules, expense ledgers, addresses and phone numbers as well as large digitized documents.
( An increasing stream of techno-driven products has already begun to change the way people live and
work, by Barrett Seaman, Time Inc. Transmitted: 95-03-13, cf. America Online.)

PDA's, along with a myriad of other appliances and devices will be controlled via voice recognition.
Existing discrete utterance systems like Dragon, Kurzweil and IBM Speech Server, which force the user to
pause for a minimum of a sixth of a second between words, will be replaced over the next decade by
continuous speech, speaker independent systems, which will allow users to access databases by voice,
control all manner of household devices...even navigate in the car. High-vocabulary systems for voice
dictation will continue to improve; the secretary's lot will not be a happy one (in fact, he or she had
better start looking for a new job soon).

Intelligent agents, knowledge robots - "knowbots" - are one of the most promising areas, although
today, the hype outpaces reality. Nevertheless, researchers at M.I.T. and Bolt, Beranek and Newman in
Cambridge, Massachusetts, confidently predict that we will be using knowbots to retrieve information
when we want it, where we want it (desktop, laptop, TV...or wrist computer). M.A.I.D. for Windows, a
new research retrieval product launched in 1995 by Marketing and Information Display Ltd., under the
profound name offers "Information Alerts", allowing the user to preprogram areas of interest which the
system retrieves for the person at regular intervals again determined by the user. The Dow Jones
Business Retrieval System offers a similar service, if less impressive graphical user interface. Both
systems work by scanning their huge data banks for new mentions of the topics required, a quasi
intelligent system but still short of the kind of HAL-like computer heralded in Stanley Kubrick's science
fiction film 2001: A Space Odyssey (Clarke, 1968).

The satellite based Global Positioning System, developed by the Pentagon is now in the public domain.
Private-boat owners have been using GPS to fix their positions atsea for the past decade. Now, GPS is
avaiable in U.S. autos. As of last summer, Oldsmobile buyers could opt for GPS receivers, with
accompanying digitized road maps, built right into their dashboards. A motorist lost in San Francisco can
tap into GPS and get an instant position on the diditized map, accurate to the length of a minivan. At it's
current $1,995 price, GPS is still an expensive option, but... as prices eventually come down, these
locators could become common features in cars. ( An increasing stream of techno- driven products has
already begun to change the way people live and work, by Barrett Seaman, Time Inc. Transmitted: 95-03-
13, cf. America Online.)

When it comes to making "sure-fire" predictions regarding the ultimate success of any given technology,
the most critical consideration is the overall cost vs. benefit analysis. Calculting the relative ratio
between how much the technology costs (in terms of personal time and money) to acquire and operate,
versus how much it returns on one's investment in terms of personal gratification. GPS makes one's
position on earth easier to measure. Pay-per-view and video-on-demand should bring one more
pleasure. If the technology will save one time, make one richer, make it faster, finer--build it and they
will buy.
By applying technology to people's everday needs, it epitomizes what Yale University computer scientist
David Gelertner calls "the true potential of the information superhighway: making everyday life for most
people somewhat easier and less irritating."
...The heart of the cyberrevolution remains...the personal computer. Cheaper, faster, more versatile and
easier to use PC's are infiltrating the social faric. Software like Mosiac and Netscape has made navigating
the Internet a lot less daunting for average citizens, who are rushing to buy modems and sign up for
online services.( An increasing stream of techno-driven products has already begun to change the way
people live and work, by Barrett Seaman, Time Inc. Transmitted: 95-03-13, cf. America Online.)

Once the rush has subsided, every house that today has a phone and TV, will have available interactive
services to go with their information & entertainment appliances. The difference in lifestyle between the
average household occupant today and one of next decade, may be as distinct as the Flintstones and the
Jetsons.

Information/On-line, Anytime, On-Anything

On-line newspapers and magazines, tailored to your interest, will update themselves frequently, and
read to you while you drive to work. Philip Dionisi (1993, August 8). There's a mind-boggling electronic
revolution heading for your living room. The Tallahassee Democrat p.8A.

Today few people have the time to read through an entire newspaper or magazine in order to find the
topics that are of interest to them. The specialization and format of cable stations, Headline News and
CNN, have already moved society in this direction. There has also been a proliferation of services
(Prodigy, CompuServe, Dow Jones News Retrieval etc.) which have bolstered use of on-line information
service subscriptions.

The technological revolutions taking place will be at their most fundamental in the media - . Yet those
same media are of themselves very conservative and thus the pace of change will lag behind the
technologies they can adopt. For example, the ability to produce 500+ television channels via digital
satellite transmission has existed since 1990 but the prospect of such arrays on a massive scale will not
take place until after the millennium. Of course, cost is a major factor in dictating this slow diffusion;
availability of programming is another, but one should also not underestimate the "drag" that media
owners themselves place on the new media.

The Internet is another good example. In 1995 estimates put the number of Internet users at over 30
million (although this was probably exaggerated and involved considerable double counting). However,
as Negroponte (1995) pointed out in being digital:

The population of the Internet itself is now increasing a 10 per cent per month. If this rate of growth
were to continue (quite impossibly), the total number of Internet users would exceed the population of
the world by 2003." (Negroponte, 1995, pp. 5-6).

Given this exponential growth one would expect the Net itself to be crowded with media owners
hawking their wares. Yet newspapers and magazines have been slow to react. In 1995 the number of
newspapers and magazines with World Wide Web sites were still relatively small and could be counted
in their hundreds rather than thousands and only one magazine, Hot Wired, - itself an offshoot of the
printed Wired magazine - was confidently cited as "making any money". (In 1995 Hot Wired charged its
advertisers $30,000 for a two-week slot with 28 advertising slots available. According to one of its
founders, it was profitable from day one.) Although Business Week, Time, The New York times, San Jose
Mercury, Los Angeles Times, and many other prominent names could be listed as having WWW sites or
placements on consumer on-line services, such as CompuServe, American On-line and Prodigy, they
have not proved the license to print money that media owners contemplated. Lack of secure charging
mechanisms and the free nature of the Net (where users were routinely used to getting everything for
free) were largely to blame. These antecedents led to one remark (unattributed): "The Internet is like
teenage sex. Everybody thinks everybody else is doing it, everybody thinks everybody else is doing it
more than they are, and those that are doing it aren't doing it all that well."

Will this rate of newspaper/magazine innovation change? Well, yes, but not at the same exponential
rate that many enthusiasts decree. The pundits are truly ahead of themselves. Owners of the printed
word magazines and newspapers - will experiment with various charging mechanisms (subscriptions,
pay-per-read, advertising, sponsorship, transactional - a commission on products and/or services sold)
before committing themselves whole-heatedly to on-line.

Having said that the big battalions are beginning to crack: media magnate Repeat Murdoch said in an
interview in May, 1995, that all his newspapers would be on-line within two years although he
continued to remain skeptical about making money from such a move. (Snoddy, 1995). In the same
interview, Murdoch said he contemplated purchasing a satellite to beam digital television programs
across Europe. He cited exorbitant charges by European satellite owners for transponder use (compared
to the US) but his remarks were also spurred by a government green paper in the UK changing the rules
on cross- media ownership and constraining Murdoch's ability to expand either his newspaper on
terrestrial television interests in Britain. (Under the proposals, newspapers with a 20% share of the
national newspaper market would be prevented from owning significant shares in terrestrial channels -
Rupert Murdoch's newspaper interests in the UK in 1995 amounted to 37% of all national newspaper
titles and he is a 40% shareholder in BSkyB, the satellite channel).

Advances in Internet security such as Netscape Secure, which in 1995 looked as if it could become the
standard for guaranteeing secure financial transactions (such as credit cards), has also prompted a flurry
of activity. At the time of writing in the UK, The Telegraph, Times, Guardian, Financial Times, Sunday
Times and Observer all have prototype electronic sites on the Net and the Daily Mail and London
Evening Standard were transmitting pages via Acrobat packaged data forms to Paris (albeit so that their
proprietor, Viscount Rothermere, could read his titles at his Paris residence). In the US eight newspaper
groups, including Gannet, Times Mirror, Knight-Ridder, The Washington Post, and Hearst, announced an
alliance to supply local news over the Internet (where they can control both the content and the pricing
mechanism and are not at the mercy of third-party consumer on-line services for carriage).

So the Press stampede is beginning...but do not overestimate it. The percentage of editorial resource
dedicated to electronic publishing is relatively small and the printed media have yet to learn how to
migrate to bespoke electronic form. Obsession with retaining the "look'n feel" of print titles will hamper
their migration. The demand to retain "branding" is being confused with understanding of what works
(and what doesn't) in electronic form. McLuhan (1964) was right to point out mechanamorphism- that
the medium changes the message - but most print journalists have yet to learn the differing skills of e-
mail, never mind the right bits and bytes for electronic transfer.

As this mega-digital world unfolds, it is worth elaborating on two points. Firstly, as the world is getting
smaller - in terms of access/availability, paradoxically the need for local, focused information will
become paramount. The consumer's insatiable thirst for interactivity will demand that he/she wants the
infotainment message prioritized, particularized for him/her...not for the "mass" market. Bye, bye mass
communication, hello interactive, one-on-one communication. But it will not happen overnight - vested
interests in mass communication will make sure of that...but change will happen. The second point
concerns the seemingly endless debate on whether the delivery vehicle for information will be the PC
platform (a combination or telecommunication and computers) or the television (an alliance of
computer, telecommunication and television - mainly cable and satellite-interests). The answer is it will
be BOTH; in business, multimedia information will be effected via the PC, which has migrated to an all
singing, all-dancing, bells & whistles device with everything from 30 frames-per-second confravision to
thermal colour printing. Computer penetration will continue to grow in the home but the money in the
middle to long run is on the television set. It just won't be a TV set any more; it will be a computer.

Information services, not software applications, will be the primary function of personal computers.
Snider, J., & Ziporyn, T.(1992). Future Shop. St. Martin's Press, New York.

Information technology hardware is not where computer manufacturers profit. The 'powers that be' had
better take heed and relearn the lessons taught in the PC wars and the battles of the U-Matic and
Betamax machines. Software has been the "bread-and-butter" personal computing technology, and
without a standardized format, software distribution has a less than optimal opportunity to flourish. As
software developers battle, they may be ousted by the wide spread subscription to on-line services.
Continuous updating and interactive capabilities may prove to be more attractive than attempting to
keep your PC loaded with current software. Since the ability to down-load information from on-line
databases to word processing programs exists, PC's could serve as information collection stations as well
as performing the various and sundry other functions of the well-wired "electronic cottage." As it is, "
the modern, well-wired home already offers its occupants a head-spinning array ofv computer-borne
activities....Children use CD-ROMS to play games...Teenagers flock to on-line services not only to "chat"
but also to reach primary schoolwork sources, such as images of original works of art, documents
prepared by experts, even possible exchanges of E-mail with the experts themselves. Adults have access
to instant stock-market quotes, to on-line versions of magazines....and to a host of "clubs" where people
gather to discuss astronomy, genealogy or bicycling." (cf. Barrett, op. cit.)
And when it comes to shopping --be it for the staples of life (food, shelter, clothes, and even sex) or any
other imaginable item (from autos to zodiac readings)-- interactive communication technologies are
rapidly moving to the forefront as the primary conduit for commerce.

For Home Shopping or Shopping for Homes:

*Using online programs and the Internet's increasingly crowed World Wide Web, one can find not just
information about products and services but help in bringing the transactions to a conclusion as well.
Real estate agents are discovering online as an efficient way to sell properties. The Homes and Land
Publishing Corp.'s website lists Homes nationwide-- by state, then bt city....The Austin Real Estate
Connection in Texas gives information on the full range of home-buying services, from photographs of
the houses to the names of builders and mortgage lenders, lawyers and title companies. Using a search
program, prospective buyers can enter preferences, such as price range, style, school district and
number of bedrooms, and thus narrow the field to homes that meet those criteria.( An increasing
stream of techno-driven products has already begun to change the way people live and work, by Barrett
Seaman, Time Inc. Transmitted: 95-03-13, cf. America Online.)

*Interactive capabilities and the use of an advanced remote control, will enable consumers to browse in
a electronic mall and see clothes modeled in the colors and settings one prefers. Philip Dionisi (1993,
August 8). "There's a mind-boggling electronic revolution heading for your living room." The Tallahassee
Democrat p.8A.

*A new on-line store on the internet offers shopping...you can order whatever you want and the food is
actually cheaper than the the grocery store....The store is the brainchild of two MIT graduates, Chon Vo
and Alex Sherstinsky. The two buy the goods from their own suppliers and sell them at a small markup.
Users can:
* Browse and choose, for example, between bananas designated "ripe," near ripe" or "green"
* Place their items in a basket and keep a running tally of theeir bill.
* Point and click on the entry "broccoli" and not only get nutitional information about broccoli but also
reciepes containing the vegtable.
* Register their likes or dislikes... i.e. only organic veggies...milk only in cardboard containers
Vo delivers the orders by van, using a computer program to map out the most effiecint route.
( "Grocery checkout line soon may be just keystrokes away," by Glen Johnson - The Associated Press,
Tallahasee Democrat, (July 7,1995, page 1A)

One will be able to pay bills and shop from home by inserting a bank card into the TV or phone. Plus,
'smart cards' could contain everything from one's bank balance to medical or employment records. Philip
Dionisi (1993, August 8). There's a mind-boggling electronic revolution heading for your living room. The
Tallahassee Democrat p.8A.

In his book, The Global Village, Marshall McLuhan provides a chilling hypothetical account of a burglar
entering your hotel room as you lay asleep. She does not disturb you, or take anything. However, she
has managed to write down your "smart card" number, and access it from various on-line locations.
Today, that would mean a loss of money; tomorrow, it will mean a loss of identity. In contemporary
society, the effects of Electronic Funds Transfer (EFT's) have become widespread. From the grocery store
to the mall, it is becoming more difficult to use traditional forms of currency, bringing us closer to the
cashless society. According to McLuhan (1989), the proliferation of ETF's and "Cybercash" will reduce
public social desirability to "creditworthiness".

Snider & Ziporyn (1992) maintain that through improved telecommunications, shopping from the home
will increase substantially. Subsequently, there will be a dramatic decrease of in-store selling. Retail
sales for particular goods will drastically decrease as a result of consumers becoming informed buyers.
The stores being targeted for extinction are specialty stores (electronics, sporting goods, toys, travel,
etc.) which provide consumers with information they could not previously attain (with relative ease) and
do not require a significant degree of customization. The customer will no longer rely on the salesperson
at Radio Shack for information about his cordless phone. He will be able to obtain this information from
his interactive liaison. However convenient and fantastic this may be, it does not mean that Saturday
afternoon shopping will become an activity only for the computerless. Toffler (1980) reiterates that, by
no means, will traditional shopping become extinct. It is important to remember that-- a lone baboon is
a dead baboon-- as gregarious beings, there are crucial social aspects to many of our behaviors. People
like to go shopping to get away from the kids, to "hang out" with friends, or to make new acquaintances.
And for some, there will never be an electronic substitute for squeezing the Charmin at the supermarket
or trying on clothes at Bloomingdales.
Indeed, some interactive information services-- like U S WEST's multimediated yellow pages (originally
termed its entertainment Express service) -- are designed to "get the people out." As stated by Sol
Trujillo, president of U S WEST Marketing Resources..." This is not couch-potato stuff"...." With the click
of a remote, viewers can survey the local restaurant scene, read reviews, peruse the menus and even
reserve a table for four at 8. Or they can check local movie theaters-- not only for what's playing and
when but for what rating the film comes carries, what the critics are saying and previews of films. Tickets
can be bought in advance through a cerdit-card system." (cf. Barrett, op. cit.)

Moreover, Home Shopping--Not Just For Consumers Anymore....

Closed user business groups will become commonplace allowing business to buy products and services
over their secure Business Nets via cable, satellite or microwave technology to their laptops, desktops
or to their home TV. In addition,the Virtual Trade Show will become a reality with the visitor not even
having to attend; "confravision" will finally have come of age, cyberspace visitors will be able to pre-
book appointments for real-time conversation with exhibitors...take part in panels at seminars. Will it be
a substitute for the "real" thing? Not entirely. But it will be a lot cheaper and a lot less time-consuming.
Visitors to trade shows may elect to attend every other year. Sell airline stocks now! Paradoxically, the
shows themselves may become bigger, more regular events because of the availability of electronic
bandwidth. In exhibitions and trade shows we will see phenomenal growth in the use of CD-ROM
technology. Why carry away two plastic bags full of "stuff" you'll never read when you can take away
one disc with 250,000 pages of information, plus full motion video and audio, which can be
passed/duplicated for use back at the office (or wherever you telecommute from)? Increasingly, trade
shows will be linked to Internet sites where you can preview or browse 365 days a year at any time of
day or night. Using emerging Digital Videodisc (DVD) technology "visitors" to these sites will be able to
download updated information (prices, brochures, catalogs, interviews with 'satisfied' product users -
testimonials, technical support, etc.) via ever- increasing bandwidth (which will also become increasingly
cheaper to use). The directory/catalog market will never be the same again. Vast increases in storage
(through CD-ROM) will be augmented by CD-RAM technology which will allow users to write to
addressable fields. Your directory need never be out of date (although, no doubt, you'll be charged for
the updates).
Never out of date, never out of touch and never out of memory-- on the surface would seem to be a
most desirable state of affairs. The new interactive communication technologies seem to offer and
almost limitless array of capacities and capabilities. To date, the changes wrought by all this technology
on our information & entertainment consumption patterns has been more experienced than
understood. Interactive communication while bringing us new opportunities and services also brings
with it new concerns. To wit:

Interactive Entertainment vs. Invasion of Privacy

You'll be able to play along with quiz shows, choose among stories (level of detail) on news programs
and advertising, shape the plots of dramas, and choose instantly among thousands of movies and old TV
shows. You may be able to rate each show you watch to help your TV prepare a personalized TV Guide
for you. In short, the mass media is heading for de-massification. Philip Dionisi (1993, August 8). There's
a mind-boggling electronic revolution heading for your living room. The Tallahassee Democrat p.8A.

In 1977 Warner-Amex installed two-way cablevision in Columbus, Ohio and offered it as an option along
with a basic cable television. A combination of technical and privacy issues lead to its quick demise.
Two-way TV raises issues of "big brother" and the intrusion of privacy regarding the collection of
information for data banks, that subscribers may wish to keep private ( i.e. the downloading of
pornographic movies, to name but one). With the capability of monitoring every program viewed and
transaction processed it will be possible to create ever more unique and massive databases and
marketing dossiers. According to Quittner (1993):

"The teleputer you watch will be watching back: Interactive devices collect information about exactly
what you buy, watch, read, eat, or do, every time you use them, allowing companies to compile a
remarkably detailed portrait of your life (p. 8a)."

In perspective, predictions about uses and effects of future technologies often neglect several critical
issues, most importantly socio-behavioral patterns and unintended applications. It should also be
reemphasized that interactive technology, like any technology, is nothing more than array of neutral
instruments. Technologies don't set out to facilitate social change, but more often than not, it is a
residual effect. Kiesler (1986) identifies three orders of effect characteristic of technology: First order
effect is what the technology is intended or planned to do. (The telephone was intended to improve
business communication). The second order effect is a transient effect. (The unintended effect of the
telephone was a lack of privacy, i.e. solicitors). The third order effects, (the social effects of the
telephone, has been a new mode of interpersonal interaction and long-distance relationships).

As the mass media demassifies, scholars and scientists will need to develop theories to aid in
understanding the social influences that result as a repercussion of interactive communication. In the
passing age of mass media, individuals were constantly bombarded with media representations of a
complex physical and social world. It was through these representations that one's narrow personal
surroundings were expanded to construct social meaning (Defleur and Ball-Rokeach 1989). Case in
point: The mass media constructed social or shared meaning for numerous public and private agendas.
For example, "Just Say No!" is associated with particular agenda within society. What constructs the
social meaning is mass consumption of the message.
As we speculate and analyze media trends, there is an obvious movement towards de-massification of
the mass media, through specialization. There are several channels currently offered by local cable
companies with specialized content (all sports, all music, all shopping, and all comedy). Gone are the
days of watching the "Big 3" (ABC, CBS, NBC), passively viewing as network programmers "take you"
from The Wide World of Sports to Lawrence Welk. The individual has already taken steps in actively
seeking content in which he/she is interested. The implications in terms of the construction of social
meanings is a return to homogeneous personal surroundings.
Once considered the dark-house of communication theory, an oversimplified stimulus-response
method, The Theory of Uniform Influences, also known as the "magic bullet", could make its way back
on top as 'the' theory of "demassified" communication. Contemporary theorists echo current
perspectives in stating:

"A communication message does not have the same effect on everyone. Its effect on anyone is
dependent on a number of things, including personality characteristics, various aspects of the
situation and the context." Severin and Tankard (1988) Communication Theories 3rd ed.,p 106

The greatest argument against the magic bullet theory was founded in social relationships. If the future
offers media isolation through personalized information consumption, it is conceivable that persuasive
media messages may be tailored to a person's likes, dislikes, fears, and prejudices. Databases
constructing psychographic profiles based upon personalized interactive-media dossiers will provide an
efficient and effective means for advertisers and political groups, to "hit" their target more accurately
than ever. Being active seekers of this information will make individuals very susceptible to media
messages. Meanwhile, reduced viewing variety (by choice) will provide less exposure to contradictory
information.

The consequences of reduced socialization and increased customization that that demassified-
interactive entertainment may occasion can also impact the nature and content of formal education in
the near future as well. As predicted over thirty years ago by Marshall McLuhan: "In education the
conventional divison of the curriculum into subjects is already as outdated as the medieval trivium and
quadrivium after the Renaissance. Any subject taken in depth at once relates to other subjects.
Continued in their present patterns of fragmented unrelation, our school curricula will insure a citizenry
unable to understand the cybernated world in which they live."
( Understanding Media, op.cit., p.347)

PREDICTIONS IN EDUCATION
The automated university will be here by the year 2000. Virtually all students will have computers at
home on which they could run instructional software and be linked to other students and teachers as
well as to libraries. Smith, G., & Debenham, J. (1993). Automating University Teaching by the year 2000.
T.H.E. Journal p.71.

...if it does not adapt, the university will disappear as the oral schools did when they did not create a
synthesis with the Gutenberg technology.... Universities are primarily linear/verbal places. We have
course syllabi, outlines, reading lists, and prerequisites. Yet, many of our students are post-MTV,
channel-surfing, videogame players, not used to listening or reading for an hour, not used to knowing
where they are in the outline, or even if there is an outline. Media like the Net, hypertext, and the Web,
may allow us to evolve a style of instruction better matched to the cognitive style of these students, just
as the oral schoolman might have adopted to print. ( "McLuhan Meets the Net" by Larry Press,
Communications, July, 1995/Volume 38, Number 7, pg.18)

The sixties brought us teaching machines, the 'promise' of individualized instruction through self-paced
workbooks, and branching or scrambled books. These teaching machines were based upon an
audiovisual platform and various aspects of behaviorist psychology, the dominate learning paradigm of
the period. While the technology proved to be effective, they disappeared within a decade (Gayesk
1989).

The seventies saw the emergence of dial access. The concept was that students could do away with
traditional methods of acquiring lessons from instructors. Dial access enabled students to dial-up their
lessons from their dorm room or location with access to the central distribution center. Ideally this
would do away with the need for large expensive classrooms and to a certain extent, interaction with
instructors and other student. The eighties introduced video text, and was considered the first major
attempt to go on-line. The 'promise' for education was on-line drill-practice lessons and encyclopedias
which could be searched by keywords. The system enabled text and graphics to be transmitted either as
part of an unused portion of a television signal (teletext) or over phone lines (videotext). However,
videotext was unable to find a market niche in the United States and had been described as a product
without a purpose. And, now in the ninties, here comes multimedia CD-ROMs and the Internet. What is
it about these technologies that will allow them to be any more successful than their teaching machine
predesors? Indeed, any technology which attempts to reduce the significance of the teacher--by shifting
the teacher's role from "sage on the stage" to the "guide on the side"-- should
meet with swift and sure resistance. But, as Press (1995) observes:

Perhaps we are seeing the start already. Public funding for universities is dropping, and a Certified
Network Engineer certificate from Novell is worth more in many markets than a humanities BA.
Institutions like Mind Extension University and Walden University seem to be establishing footholds on
The Net. Current universities have the advantages of being well established distribution channels and of
accreditation, of having the right to confer degrees, but these could disappear rapidly. ( "McLuhan
Meets the Net" by Larry Press, Communications, July, 1995/Volume 38, Number 7, pg.18)
In Conclusion
Given the above predictions-- and sparing you from the hundreds more that could be proffered-- one
"sure-fire bet" can be tendered: From henceforth, change will be the only constant in our lives.

No question about it - the information revolution is here...all those ones and zeros we've been passing
around - the fuel that flames the digital fire - have reached critical mass and ignited...Its the big bang of
our time...(and) it's starting to overwhelm us. It's outstripping our capacity to cope, antiquating our
laws, transforming our mores, reshuffeling our economy, reordering our priorites, redefining our
workplaces, putting our constitution to the fire, shifting our concept of reality and...The revolution has
only just begun. ( "InfoMania" by Steven Levy, Newsweek, February 27,1995, pg.26)

And while the personal-psychic costs of adjusting to all these changes will be formidable, they will prove
to be nothing compared to the socio- economic costs incured by those who are left behind. The super
information highway is a toll road., it requires an investment in time (to learn the software) and money
(to acquire the hardware) necessary for travel.
Given the certainty that there are, and will remain, those unable to afford or unwilling to pay the price
of admission society is sure to divide into the
"interconnected-interactives" and the "disconnected- computer-illiterates."
As a consequence we are already beginning to worry about the creation of a new class system in
society: the "information rich" and "information poor." Thus, as Glaser (1995) observed, " "Without a
thoughtful universal-service policy, cyberspace could well end up as alien and cost-prohibitive to the
general public as venturing out of town was during the reign of medieval highway robbers." (Rod Glaser
(1995) "Universal service does matter". Wired. p.98.)

How soon, and to what degree our sampling of predictions come true should not be of primary concern.
Of greater import is that one take on the broader perspective that dramatic changes in the way we live
and learn, work and play are imminent. And with great changes will come great conflicts. For as
forewarned by Levy (1995): " As this century closes and we enter the first great computational
millenium, one of the great conflicts in civilization will be the attempt to reorder society, culture and
government.....The only guarantee is that the transitions will be jarring, especially if the changes arrive
pell-mell, and we fail to take measures to shape the direction of the revolution."
And don't be surprised if in the near future you see a pig fly by. It could very well be that while you have
been reading this some future Noble prize winning genetic-engineers have been corresponding on the
Internet.... and are contemplating the proposition that if it is possible to make silk purses out of sows
ears... why not swine-wings out of pig-knuckles.

References

Clarke, A.C. (1968). 2001: A Space Odyssey. ROC Books.

Defleur, M. and Ball-Rokeach (1989). Theories of Mass Communication. Fifth ed., NY: Longman.

Dionisi. P. (1993, August 8). There's a mind-boggling electronic revolution heading for your living room.
The Tallahassee Democrat p.8A.

Forester, T. (1992). Megatrends or Megamistakes? What Ever Happened to the Information Society. Vol.
8(3) p. 133-146.

Gayesk, D.M.(1989). Why information technologies fail. Educational Technology. Vol (22)( 9 ) p. 9-16.

Glaser, R. (1995). Universal service does matter. Wired pp96-98.

Kiesler, S (1986). The Hidden Messages in Computer Networks. Harvard Business Review, Jan./Feb. Pg.
46-55.

Levy, Steven "InfoMania," Newsweek, February 27,1995, pp.25- 27

Quittner, J. (1993). There's a Mind-Boggling Electronic Revolution Heading For Your Living Room.
Newsday. In The Tallahassee Democrat, August 8, 1993 pp. 1A, 8A.

McLuhan, M., & Powers, B.(1989). The Global Village. Oxford University Press.
McLuhan, H. M. (1964). Understanding Media: The Extension of Man.
Negroponte, N. (1995). Being Digital. New York: Hodder & Stoughton.

Seaman, Barrett , An increasing stream of techno-driven products has already begun to change the way
people live and work, Time Inc. Transmitted: 95-03-13, cf. America Online.

Smith, G., & Debenham, J. (1993). Automating University Teaching by the year 2000. T.H.E. Journal
August pp.71-75.

Snider, J., & Ziporyn, T.(1992). Future Shop. St. Martin's Press, New York.
Snoddy, R. (1995, 27 May). The Financial Times, p. 1.

Toffler, A.(1980). The Third Wave. William Morrow and Company, Inc. New York.
Toronto: University of Toronto Press.

Michael A. Chamberlain, Ph.D.

Director, New Media Activities
United News & Media, plc
 What Is The Advantages And Disadvantages Of Communication
(internet,telephone,webcam)?

1
 
My dear

                  internet is a facility by which you are able to ask this question so i think atleast one
thought would ahve come to your mind. If not, then i am telling you.
       Advantages: Telephone: We are able to contact any person at any time because of this it is
much faster than the older methods of writing a letter. As it is electronic it wont take your much
of money nor will it waste your tim eand message will get across in time. Talking of cell phone
its far too better than a telephone or rather call a landline because you can carry a cell phone
{ thats why its called a mobile} you can call and receive phone calls wherever you are
irrespective of time , place and so on. Internet helps you to access and know about teh world you
are living in to know the facts about other countries, and to use it for knowledge based works its
also used as an entertainer you can download whatever you want you can reserve tickets for
traveling , can do shopping and banking its a very good tool made by a human .

Disadvantages: Telephone: We cant take it wherever we go so we will not be able to receive

phone calls , it occupies lot space , needs lots of connections.
Webcam: It's liking spoiling one's privacy a very bad thing so I never use it even though I have
it.

Internet: A very good tool for hackers, robbers and cyber scam group. Because of this they are
accessed to all hte groups of people and it may lead to bank robbing.

These are very good things especially webcam and internet . It depends on the mindset of a
person whether he uses it for good or bad!!
The Disadvantages of Technology on
Communication
By Lauren Nelson, eHow Contributor

updated: April 30, 2010

1.

Technology can sometimes inhibit effective communication.

Technology is constantly changing the way we communicate. Some of these changes have been
positive in nature. However, some of the changes have negatively impacted our ability to
effectively send and receive messages.With globalization forcing us to keep up with the times or
get left behind, it's critical that we understand these potential communication roadblocks as we
incorporate new technology into our daily lives.

Context

2. When communicating face to face, nonverbal behaviors provide context clues for the words we
use. Unfortunately, the Wall Street Journal found that technologies like email, texting and
instant messaging remove these important context clues, and can lead to misunderstandings.
Sarcasm and jokes without nonverbal context cues can cause frustration. Though smiley faces
with different expressions called "emoticons" are sometimes used to substitute traditional
nonverbal cues, they fall far short of what face-to-face communication can provide.

Language Confusion

3. With the growth and expansion of technology, a new language has been born, including a
variety of abbreviations, such as, "lol," "ttyl" and "afk." While some of these terms have become
very commonly used in day-to-day exchanges, some, such as "lmirl," or, "let's meet in real life,"
are almost exclusively used in Internet interaction. If one is not familiar with this form of slang,
technology can limit effective communication more than help it.
 Speed

4. While many would consider the amplified speed in communication via technology a plus, it also
presents drawbacks. The speed at which an email, text or instant message can be sent can lead
to emotional responses you don't necessarily mean, inflaming the conflict at hand. However,
beyond limitations involving conflict, the speed at which we communicate with new
technologies can hurt our ability to, "think before we speak," as the saying goes. It is sometimes
too tempting to shoot back an email as quickly as possible. In our haste, though, we may find
ourselves making a slew of errors, which can lead to confusion over the intended message and
damage your professional credibility.

Distractions

5. As more students acquire cell phones, iPods, and gaming systems, technology's impact on
effective communication is becoming more pronounced. As the District Chronicles reports,
teachers attempting to convey messages about lessons and textbooks find students are texting,
playing, or listening to music. Not only does this mitigate the teacher's ability to communicate
lessons, but it hurts future communicative interaction between the teacher and student
because of the lack of respect it conveys.

Read more: The Disadvantages of Technology on Communication | eHow.com

http://www.ehow.com/list_6402193_disadvantages-technology-communication.html#ixzz0znOgZSxK
Technology runs in the veins of society. It is the fuel that drives our lives. It is an integral part of daily
life. It has definitely benefited society. It has brought luxury in the life of the common man. The
automation brought about by technology has saved human effort and time to a large extent. It has
brought distant places closer and simplified information access. Let us look at some of the important
areas, where technology has brought about a positive change.

Positive Effects of Technology on Society

Technology has automated many of the critical processes in the industry as well the household. The
electronic gadgets that have entered the homes of the common man have saved him from the daily
household work.

The automobile industry and technology are almost interwoven. Times have witnessed this industry
evolve from mechanical scooters to automated aircrafts. Animals were the only modes of transport in
the olden days. Technology was the driving force behind the creation and design of the modern-day
automobiles. Bicycles evolved into scooters and sports bikes. The idea of having four-wheeled modes of
transport gave rise to the creation of cars. Modes of air and water transport came up, thanks to
technology.

Machines have automated many of the crucial industrial processes. Machines are now taking up many
of the mundane jobs that were once executed by human workers. Technology has evolved to an extent
where machines can perform tasks that are physically inaccessible to man. The use of advanced
technologies like robotics and artificial intelligence has proved helpful in life-risking tasks like mining and
space exploration.

The computer technology, needless to say, has changed the face of the world. Computers can store,
organize and manage huge amounts of data. They can process large amounts of information. Computers
have given rise to the software industry, one of the most progressive industries of the world. The
Internet that seeded from the computer networking concepts is the most effective communication
platform and the largest information base existing today.

The Internet has brought an important positive change to the entertainment and advertising industry.
Advertisements can reach the masses within seconds over the Internet. The entertainment media has
progressed only because of the advancements in technology.

The digitization of information has made it possible for us to store it in a compact form. Digitization
enriches the quality of information storage. Digital voice and digital images are of a higher quality.
Digital cameras and digital television provide their users with an enriched picture quality, thus bettering
their experience with technology.

Cellular communication has revolutionized the communication industry. The conventional telephone,
also a piece of technology, was one of the earliest technological developments in communication.
Mobile phones have broadened the horizons of communication by enabling convenient long-distance
calling.

Satellite communication is another important dimension of technology. Satellite TVs and satellite radios
have eased the broadcasting of events across the globe.

These were only a few of the fields influenced by technology. It is almost impossible to enlist all the
positive effects of technology on society. This was just a glimpse of the real big picture.
 Is the Internet Affecting the Social Skills of Our Children?
      While in its relative infancy, technology-driven school reform has engulfed education, and advocates
hail the multitude of advantages to reap. It comes with promises to propel us into the future and cause
dramatic improvement in student proficiency and worldwide understanding. Our computer-driven
society demands that students develop the ability to operate in a technological environment, acquiring
the knowledge and skills necessary to be productive. In addition, so much of our planet is rapidly
becoming connected via the Internet that online protocol has become an intrinsic part of technology-
based curriculum. But increasing reports connecting psychologically addictive characteristics to Internet
use, along with speculation of its negative influence on social functioning has brought to question the
enduring effects of this reform. Educators and psychologists are beginning to wonder about the impact
of the Internet on the social skills and psychological well-being of our children.

Just the Facts

      Online computer use is widespread and growing. Current
estimates indicate that 149 million people are online worldwide,
and that number is increasing at the rate of 12% a month (Suler,
1996, 1999b). According to a U.S. Census Bureau report, 22.2% of
the 76 million American computer users aged 3 and above use
the Internet, and one fifth of children with home computers use
them to access the Internet (U.S. Census Bureau, 1997). It was
also reported that 55 million enrolled children used a computer
at school, and school was the most common place for children to
access the Internet. With these staggering numbers, there is little
doubt as to the proliferation and popularity of Internet use.

Questions Arise
      While our culture heralds the Internet as a technological wonder, there are suggestions that Internet
use has a negative influence on individuals and their social skills. A recent study conducted by Carnegie
Mellon University concludes that Internet use leads to small but statistically significant increases in
misery and loneliness and a decline in overall psychological well-being (American Psychological
Association, 1998). The appropriately named HomeNetproject studied a sample of 169 people in
Pittsburg during their first year or two online. Data showed that as people in this sample used the
Internet more, they reported keeping up with fewer friends. They also reported spending less time
talking with their families, experiencing more daily stress, and feeling more lonely and depressed. These
results occurred even though interpersonal communication was their most important reason for using
the Internet.

      A national survey conducted by the Annenberg Public Policy Center in Washington found that a
majority of parents in computer households fear the Internet's influence on children, due particularly to
its wide-open nature and interactivity (Annenberg Public Policy Center, 1999). However, they still
believe that their children need the Internet. They cited as benefits the ability to discover useful things
and the advantages in helping with schoolwork. But the suggestive ill effects of Internet use do not stop
at the secondary school level. At a large university in New York, the dropout rate among freshmen
newcomers rose dramatically as their investment in computers and Internet access increased. The
reason? Administrators learned that 43% of the dropouts were staying up all night on the Internet
(Wallace, 1999). In response to a college listserv survey regarding the effect of technology on
interpersonal relationships and communication, by far the most frequently mentioned potential
problem dealt with electronic communication in the forms of e-mail, discussion groups, and chat rooms.
Many respondents spoke of the sense of isolation inherent in this medium and the lack of face to face
contact as a contributing factor to feelings of alienation and loneliness (Wade, 1999). Taking another
twist, further findings suggest a small but significant number of people blame excessive online use for
the break-up of their marriage (Eykyn, 1999).

Is It Addictive?
      With this increasing information, there is a debate among psychologists as to the
prevalence of a psychological disorder associated with online use. Labeled by some as
"Internet Addiction Disorder" (Goldberg, 1997), studies suggest the existence of addictive
behavior patterns among heavy Internet users (Greenfield, 1999; Young, 1998). Based on criteria that
psychologists often use in defining types of addiction, online surveys estimate the incidence of addictive
patterns of behavior among heavy Internet users ranges from 6% (Greenfield, 1999) to as high as 80%
(Young, 1998). Identified symptoms of the disorder include: (a) using the computer for pleasure,
gratification, or relief from stress; (b) feeling irritable and out of control or depressed when not using it;
(c) spending increasing amounts of time and money on hardware, software, magazines, and computer-
related activities; and (d) neglecting work, school, or family obligations (Gawel, 1998). Relating to the
online encounter, some users have also described experiencing a cocaine-like "rush" when using the
Internet (Egger, 1996). In disagreement, some psychologists argue that the list of symptoms seems more
oriented toward general personality disorders rather than real computer addiction (Dvorak, 1997;
Grohol, 1999; Davis, 1999). Others challenged the findings of the online survey studies to be inaccurate
due to sampling problems and demographic inequalities (Suler, 1999a; Wallace, 1999). According to
Maressa Hecht Orzack, director of computer-addiction services at McLean Hospital of the Harvard
Medical School, the problem centers around the people who work the computer rather than the
computer itself. She asserts that they use the computer "as a tool to evade, procrastinate and escape,"
and that "among the most vulnerable are children who are lonely and bored or from families where
nobody is at home to relate to after school." (Valenza, 1999). In a lighter view, some have taken a
humorous approach to identifying the characteristics of Internet addicts. In a site entitled You Know
You're Addicted When, the viewer is greeted with a seemingly endless list of warning signs. Still others
have come up with audible approaches to the subject.
Click on the following sound files for samples of this
type of expression: addicted.wav and gilligan.wav

      As yet, there is no official psychological or

psychiatric diagnosis of an "Internet" or "Computer"
addiction. The most recent edition of the Diagnostic
and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) -- which sets the standards for classifying types of
mental illness -- does not include any such category (American Psychiatric Association, 1994). Those who
have conducted research on the subject agree that heavy Internet users share many characteristics in
common with general addiction disorders. In his online document The Psychology of Cyberspace, Dr.
John Suler lists many of these characteristics. There are several more Web sites that are specifically
devoted to the study and diagnosis of the disorder. Among them is Dr. David Greenfield's Center for
Internet Studies, which offers a free virtual addiction survey for self-appraisal. In addition, Dr. Kimberly
Young founded the Center for On-Line Addiction which consults to educational institutions, mental
health clinics, and corporations dealing with Internet misuse. The growing evidence of addiction among
heavy Internet users has created a growing need for more information about the psychological
characteristics of these individuals. Such information would serve an important role in the identification
and development of effective intervention and prevention programs.

Effects On Our Children

      Referring to the HomeNetstudy, it was found that teenagers are much heavier Internet users than
their parents. While adults tend to use the Internet as part of their jobs and to get employment-related
information, teenagers were more likely to use the Internet to play games, to listen to music, and to
meet new people. This particular appeal has caused further concern among educators such as Michael
A. Weinstein, professor of Political Science at Purdue University. In a somewhat Archie Bunkerian way of
expression, he believes Internet users will "lose the savvy and skills and patience to conduct social
relations in the corporeal world," and that the Internet will intensify the negative effect television has
already had on our social skills (Weinstein, 1995). Taking his view then, it is assumed that we are
encouraging our children to become social nitwits!

      In their dealings with technology, today's youths are often portrayed as either victims or criminals.
The press releases warning of Internet "stalkers," coupled with the recent tragedies of Columbine H.S.
and elsewhere, have raised issues of safety and concern when dealing with the Internet. Like Weinstein,
many have taken the view that media and technology -- including television, motion pictures, and CD
recordings -- have deteriorated the values and social functioning of our youth. In their view, the Internet
is a prime culprit for this affliction with its innate game-playing capabilities (Fainaru, 1998), suspected
addictive tendencies, and beckoning sexually-explicit temptations. Debate as to the detrimental effects
of technology on youth will perhaps linger due to the tentative nature of the research on this subject.

Encouraging Trends
      Contrary to this line of thinking, reports indicate that our youth may not be destined for such a
decline. Overall, youth crime statistics have shown a stable or declining trend for five years (Tapscott,
1998). In his article For Adults, 'Today's Youth' Are Always the Worst, reporter Mike Males of the
L.A.Times reports that over the past two decades in California teenage rates of felony and misdemeanor
arrest are down 40%, suicide and self-destructive deaths have dropped 60% and drug-abuse deaths have
declined 90%. He also reports that "students display higher school enrollments, test scores, college
preparatory work and volunteerism than their forebears," and that "only California's poorest youth,
confronted by the poverty and joblessness of a selective economic depression ... have shown increases
in violence and alienation." (Males,1998).

Some also praise the benefits of the Internet in

actually grooming the social skills of youth. Student
author Matt Simon (1997), in an issue of The Vocal
Point, offers the following view: "While the
educational pros of the technology of computers cannot be forgotten, what about the social aspects?
When we think of children and computers, the image of endless hours of playing games comes to mind.
There are however many opportunities for children and youth to interact on-line in productive and
positive ways. Spank Magazine is an interactive on-line magazine with new issues monthly. On-line
magazines are virtual forums in which youth can write and communicate their ideas. This on-line format
is free, accessible to anyone and eliminates the need for print publication and distribution ... An on-line
magazine like Spank is a good way for youth to express themselves." Accounts such as this can only aid
technology proponents in countering the views of their adversaries.

Awareness Is The Key

      There is little doubt that children can at times become captivated by the intrinsic opportunities
afforded by the technology of computers and the Internet. This may sometimes come at the expense of
other healthy activities such as homework or normal social interchange. Although most children seem to
innately correct the problem, parents and educators must be watchful for signs of misuse. Dr. Kimberly
Young of the Center for On-Line Addiction offers an online survey, the Parent-Child Internet Addiction
Test to help identify habits and characteristics that may indicate overuse. The HomeNetstudy
recommends that parents limit and monitor their children's use and encourage family interaction by
putting the computer in the living room, rather than the basement or a child's room. Whatever the
action, parents and children should work together to identify a problem. It is also the responsibility of
educators to effectively incorporate technology into their lesson plans. They must view the computer as
a valuable supplemental tool in education rather than an end-all solution. When incorporating the
Internet, online research activities should be integral with in-class social exchange to assure a necessary
balance.

Conclusion
      Despite the alarm, research indicates most children are doing fine. Computers are certainly intriguing
and captivating, and the Internet is most assuredly alluring with its research and communicative
capacities. But overall, technology can be considered a positive enhancement to growth. This feature is
eloquently affirmed by author Don Tapscott (1999):

"... when kids are online, they're reading, thinking, analyzing, criticizing and authenticating - composing
their thoughts. Kids use computers for activities that go hand-in-hand with our understanding of what
constitutes a traditional childhood. They use the technology to play, learn, communicate and form
relationships as children always have. Development is enhanced in an interactive world."
 References

      American Psychiatrict Association (1994). Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders (4th
ed.). Washington, DC: Author

      American Psychological Association (1998). Internet paradox -- a social technology that reduces
social involvement and psychological well-being? American Psychologist,53, 1017-1031

      Annenberg Public Policy Center (1999, Spring). Parent's fear internet's influence on children. Media
Report to Women: Vol. 27 (pp.7-9). Washington, DC: Author

      Davis, R. (1999). Is internet addiction real? Victoria Point Multimedia [On-line]. Available:
http://www.victoriapoint.com/Addiction%20or%20not.htm

      Dvorak, J. (1997). Net addiction. PC/Computing,10, 85-87

      Egger, O. (1996). Internet behavior and addiction. [On-line]. Available:

http://www.ifap.bepr.ethz.ch/~egger

      Eykyn, G. (1999). Internet 'harms marriage'. Victoria Point Multimedia [On-line]. Available:
http://www.victoriapoint.com/marriages.htm

      Fainaru, S. (1998). Experts fear video games breed violence. The Boston Globe, October 19 [On-line].
Available: http://www.adn.com/stories/T98110984.html

      Gawel. (1999). Web addition. Electronic Design, v47. (p32)

      Goldberg, I. (1997). Diagnostic criteria. Internet Addiction Disorder [On-line]. Available:
http://www.cog.brown.edu/brochure/people/duchon/humor/internet.addiction.html

      Greenfield, D.N. (1999). Virtual addiction. Oakland, CA: New Harbinger Publications, Inc.

      Grohol, R. (1998). Re: internet addiction (long). Psychology of the Internet [On-line]. Available:
http://lists.cmhc.com/research/1998/0416.html

      Kraut, R., Lundmark, V., Kiesler, S., Mukhopadhyay T., & Scherlis, W. (1997). Why people use the
internet. Pittsburg, PA: Carnegie Mellon University. [On-line]. Available:
http://homenet.andrew.cmu.edu/progress/purpose.html
      Males, M. (1998). For Adults, 'Today's Youth' Are Always the Worst. L.A. Times [On-line]. Available:
http://www.latimes.com/cgi-bin/slwebcli?DBLIST=lt99&DOCNUM=99704&QDesc=For Adults, 'Today's
Youth' Are Always the Worst

      Simon, M. (1997). How internet has an effect on the social skills of children. The Vocal Point [On-
line]. Available: http://http://bvsd.k12.co.us/cent/Newspaper/dec97/p7/stories/simon.html

      Suler, J. (1996). Review of the internet aggression by Norman Holland. The Psychology of Cyberspace
[On-line]. Available: http://www.rider.edu/users/suler/psycyber/holland_rev.html

      Suler, J. (1999a). Computer and cyberspace addiction. The Psychology of Cyberspace [On-line].
Available: http://www.rider.edu/users/suler/psycyber/cybaddict.html

      Suler, J. (1999b). Internet demographics 1998. The Psychology of Cyberspace [On-line]. Available:
http://www.rider.edu/users/suler/psycyber/stats.html

      Tapscott, D. (1999). The kids are alright: technology doesn't make them 'little criminals'. Victoria
Point Multimedia [On-line]. Available: http://www.victoriapoint.com/child_technology.htm

      U.S. Census Bureau. (1997). Computer use in the United States. Washington, DC: Author [On-line].
Available: http://www.census.gov/prod/99pubs/p20-522.pdf

      Valenza, J. K. (1996). Lonely and bored children may use computer as escape. School Crossings [On-
line]. Available: http://crossings.phillynews.com/archive/k12/SKUL25.htm

      Wade, P. (1999). Practice agenda - technology 3rd question. American College Personnel Association
[On-line]. Available: http://www.acpa.nche.edu/tech3.htm

      Wallace, A. (1999). The psychology of the internet. New York: Cambridge University Press

      Weinstein, M. A. (1998). Net game - an american dialogue. [On-line]. Available:

http://www.ctheory.com/ga1.12-net_game.html

      Young, K. S. (1998). Caught in the net. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

C
CAPE COMMUNICATION STUDIES
Module 1: Gathering and Processing Information

 Process of Communication
 Contexts of Communication
 The Process of Reading
 Elements of Research
 Summary Skills
 General Study Skills
 Critical Reading and Thinking

Module 2: Language and Community

 Defining Language
 English and Creole
 Language in Society
 Technology, Culture and Communication

Module 3: Speaking and Writing

 Organising Skills
 Writing