1.

If Robert agreed to postpone the launching Mike believed that conservative minimum
success is 25 percent, how much is the probability of success?
2. Clark another successful product manager joined the team which improves the ration
5:1, how much is the probability of success? Is it worth Clark’s effort?

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

samples (launches) 7 5
hits (launch failures) 1 1
prior min 25% 25%
Mean of prior range 63% 63%
prior max 100% 100%
Probability of each 1% increment
1.3% 1.3%
in range
The probability of this
particular result, given our 6.33% 12.13%
prior range

Bayesian statistics uses the word probability in precisely the same sense in which this

word is used in everyday language, as a conditional measure of uncertainty associated

with the occurrence of a particular event, given the available information and the accepted

assumptions.

In the case of Big Brand perfume in launching another new men’s fragrance, Scenario

1 want to know the probability of success in launching the said product line with the 7:1

ratio and a 25% minimum of success. Bayesian Inversion result shows that there is a

6.33% probability that the new product will be success. Scenario 2 shows that the product

were improve into the ratio of 5:1, results shows that there is a 12.13% probability of

success.

This percent of probability in Scenario 1 and 2 does not meet the 50% chance that

Robert willing to take the risk. Thus, it is worthwhile not to launch the new men’s fragrance

in both scenarios because the probability of success result is very low at 6.33% and
12.13% respectively. Even though the result of probability success in scenario 2 improve,

it not satisfies the 50% Robert chance of probability. It is very risky to the company if they

were going to launch it.

However, they could continue to improve their new invention and try to have a market

research about it. They will get comments and suggestions to men on their preferences

on fragrance. This way, the company could change or improve their product fitted to the

preference of the end user. As a product producer company like Big Brand Perfumes,

market research is very important before launching the product. They must do a market

survey to know the preference of the end user, the price affordability, quality requirement

and many more. Further, in a Laymen’s terms, market research does reduce risk as well

as loss of a business in many ways.