Log-Pearson III

Vazao
Ano

z=log x (z-Zm)^3
1 7826 3.89354 0.02349186
2 6900 3.838849 0.01244022
3 6771 3.830653 0.01116622
4 6599 3.819478 0.00957376
5 5060 3.704151 0.00091296
6 5050 3.703291 0.00088892
7 4903 3.690462 0.00057846
8 4798 3.68106 0.00040391
9 4652 3.66764 0.00022144
10 4593 3.662096 0.00016598
11 4366 3.640084 3.57528E-05
12 4290 3.632457 1.62271E-05
13 4175 3.620656 2.46928E-06
14 4124 3.615319 5.47032E-07
15 3873 3.588047 -6.9599E-06
16 3757 3.574841 -3.3695E-05
17 3700 3.568202 -5.9039E-05
18 3521 3.546666 -0.00022116
19 3496 3.543571 -0.00025688
20 3380 3.528917 -0.00047864
21 3320 3.521138 -0.0006361
22 2988 3.475381 -0.00228743
23 2947 3.46938 -0.00261439
24 2947 3.46938 -0.00261439
25 2709 3.432809 -0.00529816
26 2399 3.38003 -0.01171409
27 1971 3.294687 -0.03050398
0.00317381 soma
N= 27
Media= 3.61
Desvio pad 0.14
Subramya
Tr= 100
Cs= 0.05

Kz= 2.36 Tabela media

xt= 3.94
antlog= 8798
Intervalo de confiança
Para 95% f©= 1.96
 b= 3.20
Se= 0.09
x1= 4.12
x2= 3.77
antlog= 13074
antlog= 5920
 Gumbel
Vazão
Ano observada

1 7826
2 6900
3 6771
4 6599
5 5060
6 5050
7 4903
8 4798
9 4652
10 4593
11 4366
12 4290
13 4175
14 4124
15 3873
16 3757
17 3700
18 3521
19 3496
20 3380
21 3320
22 2988
23 2947
24 2947
25 2709
26 2399
27 1971

N= 27
Media= 4263.52
Desvio pad 1433.25
Subramya
T= 2 10 25 50 100 200 500 1000
yt= 0.37 2.25 3.20 3.90 4.60 5.30 6.21 6.91
yn= 0.53320 0.53320 0.53320 0.53320 0.53320 0.53320 0.53320 0.53320
Sn= 1.10040 1.10040 1.10040 1.10040 1.10040 1.10040 1.10040 1.10040
K= -0.15 1.56 2.42 3.06 3.70 4.33 5.16 5.79
xt= 4046 6500 7735 8651 9561 10467 11662 12566

Intervalo de confiança
Para 95% f©= 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96
b= 0.91 2.39 3.26 3.91 4.56 5.22 6.08 6.74
Se= 251.04 658.96 898.13 1078.53 1258.89 1439.40 1678.33 1859.32
x1= 4538 7792 9495 10765 12028 13288 14952 16210
x2= 3554 5209 5975 6537 7093 7646 8373 8921
 2 4046.411
10 6500.102 14000
25 7735.075
50 8651.248 12000
100 9560.656
200 10466.75 10000
500 11662.16
8000
1000 12565.63
6000

4000

2000

0
1 10 100 1000
6000

4000

2000

0
1 10 100 1000
1000
1000
Gumbel
Precipitação
Ano máxima
diária anual
(mm)

1940 47
1941 70.3
1942 85.2
1943 64
1944 87.4
1945 88.3
1946 76.2
1947 96
1948 60.41
1949 135.6
1950 80.6
1951 118.4
1952 54.6
1953 70.8
1954 57.1
1955 45.5
1956 74.6
1957 67.9
1958 57.2
1959 59.5
1960 83.9
1961 59.2
1962 97.6
1963 59.8
1964 52.5
1965 66.5
1966 60.6
1967 68.5
1968 90
1969 43
1970 57.6
1971 68.9
1972 43.4
1973 68.4
1974 53.7
1975 87.1
1976 69.5
1977 118
1978 117.9
1979 80.2
1980 92.8
 1981 59.2
1982 112.5
1983 85.6
1984 56.5
1985 44.4
1986 93.2
1987 107
1988 88.2
1989 76.5
1990 85.1
1991 76.3
1992 146.2
1993 39.9
1994 51.5
1995 67.2
1996 71.9
1997 57.9

N= 58
Media= 75.08
Desvio padrão= 23.29 Subramanya, 2008
Precipitações maximas de 1 dia (mm)
T= 2 10 25 50 100 200
yt= 0.37 2.25 3.20 3.90 4.60 5.30
Tabela yn= 0.55150 0.55150 0.55150 0.55150 0.55150 0.55150
Tabela Sn= 1.17210 1.17210 1.17210 1.17210 1.17210 1.17210
K= -0.16 1.45 2.26 2.86 3.45 4.05
xt= 71.41 108.85 127.69 141.67 155.54 169.37

Intervalo de confiança
Para 95% f©= 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96
b= 0.91 2.28 3.09 3.70 4.31 4.93
Se= 2.77 6.97 9.45 11.32 13.20 15.07
x1= 76.84 122.51 146.21 163.86 181.41 198.91
x2= 65.97 95.18 109.17 119.48 129.68 139.83
Precipitação em mm
Relaçao das T= 2 10 25 50 100 200
durações 1dia 71.41 108.85 127.69 141.67 155.54 169.37
1.14 24h 81.40 124.08 145.57 161.50 177.32 193.08
0.573 1h 46.64 71.10 83.41 92.54 101.60 110.64
0.78 6h 63.49 96.79 113.54 125.97 138.31 150.60
0.821 8h 66.83 101.87 119.51 132.59 145.58 158.52
0.855 10h 69.60 106.09 124.46 138.08 151.61 165.08
0.883 12h 71.88 109.57 128.53 142.61 156.57 170.49
0.408 10.0 19.03 29.01 34.03 37.76 41.45 45.14
0.768 30.0 35.82 54.60 64.06 71.07 78.03 84.97
1.119 2h 52.19 79.56 93.33 103.55 113.70 123.80
 0.34 5.0 12.18 18.57 21.78 24.16 26.53 28.89
0.693 15.0 24.83 37.84 44.39 49.25 54.08 58.88
0.817 20.0 29.27 44.61 52.34 58.07 63.75 69.42
0.918 25.0 32.89 50.13 58.81 65.24 71.63 78.00

Intensidade (mm/h)
1dia 24.0 2.98 4.54 5.32 5.90 6.48 7.06
24h 24.0 3.39 5.17 6.07 6.73 7.39 8.05
1h 1.0 46.64 71.10 83.41 92.54 101.60 110.64
6h 6.0 10.58 16.13 18.92 21.00 23.05 25.10
8h 8.0 8.35 12.73 14.94 16.57 18.20 19.81
10h 10.0 6.96 10.61 12.45 13.81 15.16 16.51
12h 12.0 5.99 9.13 10.71 11.88 13.05 14.21
10.0 0.2 114.18 174.05 204.19 226.54 248.73 270.84
30.0 0.5 71.65 109.21 128.12 142.14 156.06 169.94
2h 2.0 26.10 39.78 46.67 51.78 56.85 61.90
5.0 0.1 146.16 222.79 261.36 289.97 318.37 346.67
15.0 0.3 99.30 151.36 177.57 197.01 216.31 235.53
20.0 0.3 87.80 133.84 157.01 174.20 191.26 208.26
25.0 0.4 78.92 120.31 141.13 156.58 171.92 187.20
 500 1000
6.21 6.91
0.55150 0.55150
1.17210 1.17210
4.83 5.42
187.61 201.39

1.96 1.96
5.74 6.36
17.56 19.44
222.02 239.50
153.20 163.29

500 1000
187.61 201.39
213.87 229.59
122.55 131.56
166.82 179.08
175.59 188.49
182.86 196.30
188.85 202.73
50.00 53.67
94.12 101.03
137.13 147.21
32.00 34.35
65.22 70.02
76.89 82.55
86.40 92.75

7.82 8.39
8.91 9.57
122.55 131.56
27.80 29.85
21.95 23.56
18.29 19.63
15.74 16.89
300.00 322.05
188.24 202.07
68.57 73.61
384.00 412.22
260.90 280.07
230.68 247.64
207.36 222.60
 Log-Pearson III
Precipitaç
Ano ão
máxima
diária
anual z=log x (z-Zm)^3
(mm)
1940 47 1.672098 -0.00625543
1941 70.3 1.846955 -8.2991E-07
1942 85.2 1.93044 0.00040665
1943 64 1.80618 -0.0001263
1944 87.4 1.941511 0.00061757
1945 88.3 1.945961 0.00071951
1946 76.2 1.881955 1.67815E-05
1947 96 1.982271 0.00199649
1948 60.41 1.781109 -0.00042601
1949 135.6 2.13226 0.02100331
1950 80.6 1.906335 0.00012487
1951 118.4 2.073352 0.01021816
1952 54.6 1.737193 -0.00169197
1953 70.8 1.850033 -2.5238E-07
1954 57.1 1.756636 -0.00099152
1955 45.5 1.658011 -0.00780261
1956 74.6 1.872739 4.39969E-06
1957 67.9 1.83187 -1.4676E-05
1958 57.2 1.757396 -0.00096903
1959 59.5 1.774517 -0.00054806
1960 83.9 1.923762 0.00030631
1961 59.2 1.772322 -0.00059336
1962 97.6 1.98945 0.00235779
1963 59.8 1.776701 -0.00050534
1964 52.5 1.720159 -0.00252621
1965 66.5 1.822822 -3.77E-05
1966 60.6 1.782473 -0.00040326
1967 68.5 1.835691 -8.8213E-06
1968 90 1.954243 0.00093802
1969 43 1.633468 -0.01107232
1970 57.6 1.760422 -0.00088281
1971 68.9 1.838219 -5.9628E-06
1972 43.4 1.63749 -0.01048377
1973 68.4 1.835056 -9.6591E-06
1974 53.7 1.729974 -0.00201846
1975 87.1 1.940018 0.00058565
1976 69.5 1.841985 -2.9661E-06
1977 118 2.071882 0.01001195
1978 117.9 2.071514 0.00996072
1979 80.2 1.904174 0.00010936
1980 92.8 1.967548 0.00137486
1981 59.2 1.772322 -0.00059336
1982 112.5 2.051153 0.00739205
1983 85.6 1.932474 0.00044108
1984 56.5 1.752048 -0.00113477
1985 44.4 1.647383 -0.00912537
1986 93.2 1.969416 0.00144532
1987 107 2.029384 0.0051805
1988 88.2 1.945469 0.00070772
1989 76.5 1.883661 2.03658E-05
1990 85.1 1.92993 0.00039831
1991 76.3 1.882525 1.79266E-05
1992 146.2 2.164947 0.02938765
1993 39.9 1.600973 -0.01665559
1994 51.5 1.711807 -0.00302005
1995 67.2 1.827369 -2.4347E-05
1996 71.9 1.856729 5.32021E-11
1997 57.9 1.762679 -0.00082198
0.02699053 soma
N= 58
Media= 1.86
Desvio pad 0.13
Subramya
T= 100
Cs= 0.23

Kz= 2.50 Tabela

xt= 2.18
antlog= 150.98
Intervalo de confiança
Para 95% f©= 1.96
b= 3.34
Se= 0.06
x1= 2.29
x2= 2.07
antlog= 194.83
antlog= 116.99
 PASSO 1
PRECIPITA ORDEM DE
ANO X2
X X
1961 28.5 97.0 9,409.0
1962 64.5 88.2 7,779.2
1963 47.2 64.5 4,160.3
1964 62 62.0 3,844.0
1965 97 60.8 3,696.6
1966 42 53.2 2,830.2
1967 60.8 52.8 2,787.8
1968 52.8 47.2 2,227.8
1969 53.2 42.0 1,764.0
1970 88.2 28.5 812.3
Media= 59.62
Desv 20.46
Beta= 15.94907
alfa= 50.41739

TR TR TR TR
10 25 100.0
0.9 0.96 0.99
2.25 3.20 4.60
95.51 110.63 132.99 1dia
108.88 126.12 151.61 24h
96.14 111.37 133.87 1h
39.23 45.44 54.62 10.0
51.15 59.25 71.22 15.0
73.84 85.53 102.81 30.0
60.33 69.88 84.00 20.0
67.78 78.52 94.38 25.0

Feira de Santana