Regression Analysis of Large Colorado School District - 2008 Reading CSAP

Scores

Paul Richardson 0209

Research Question—Is there a significant relationship between student

demographics (as represented by eligibility for free and reduced lunch program or
not) and achievement on the reading CSAP tests.

Database used—created by extracting data from Excel spreadsheet downloaded

from the Colorado Dept of Education website http://www.cde.state.co.us/, accessed
12/10/2008. The extraction process involved extracting the data for a large
Colorado School District for Reading scores for grades 3 through 10. The data given
delineates scores for each of three groups in each grade; those eligible for free
lunch, those eligible for reduced cost lunch, and those not eligible for free or
reduced lunch. I combined the free and the reduced into one category computing
the volume weighted average score for those scoring proficient or better on the
reading CSAP. Other untested variables include; percent scoring unsatisfactory,
percent scoring partially proficient, percent scoring proficient and percent scoring
advanced. In preparing the data for the SPSS statistical software package I used 1
for free and reduced lunch and 2 for no free and reduced lunch. The total number
of students in the sample was 16373 giving the resulting analysis good validity.

Regression

Variables Entered/Removedb

Variables Variables
Model Entered Removed Method

1 lunch, gradea . Enter

a. All requested variables entered.

b. Dependent Variable: PerProBetter

The dependent variable is Percent Proficient or Better

The independent variables are the grade and lunch status; 1 or 2

Model Summary

Adjusted R Std. Error of the

Model R R Square Square Estimate

1 .974a .948 .940 3.24954

a. Predictors: (Constant), lunch, grade

 The overall correlation for the total model is 0.974 with an R Square of 0.948 showing a
very powerful predictive relationship between the dependent and independent variables

ANOVAb

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

1 Regression 2496.866 2 1248.433 118.228 .000a

Residual 137.274 13 10.560

Total 2634.140 15

a. Predictors: (Constant), lunch, grade

b. Dependent Variable: PerProBetter

The result is significant at the .001 level.

Coefficientsa

Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients

Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.

1 (Constant) 40.727 3.451 11.801 .000

grade -1.403 .355 -.251 -3.958 .002

lunch 24.142 1.625 .941 14.859 .000

a. Dependent Variable: PerProBetter

The result is a negative Beta of -0.251 for the grade variable significant at the 0.01 level
(scores go down as grade number goes up) and a positive Beta of 0.941 for the lunch
variable significant at the 0.001 level (those who qualify for free and reduced lunch score
significantly lower than those who do not).
Graph

1 = students who qualify for free or reduced lunch

2 = students who do not qualify for free or reduced lunch

Conclusion:

The district is letting the demographic variable, free or reduced lunch determine what kids
learn. The district’s value added is nil. The model says that 97.4% of the results are
predicted by the demographic variable (94.1%) and the trend of reduction in scores as
grade increases. The achievement gap will not decrease until the district starts to add value.
This district is typical of Colorado School districts and since the achievement problem is
rampant nationally I suspect similar results would be obtained by studying a large sample
across multiple states.