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Description & Overview

The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program, property crime includes the

offenses of burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson. Stockton California is

consistently ranked among the top cities in the nation for violent crime and property crime per

capita. Stockton is the 13th largest city in California covering over 65 square miles with over

300,000 in population. With the recession in 2008, Stockton experienced over 4,200 homes in

default or foreclosure and became one of the largest cities in United States history to file

bankruptcy in 2012. The unemployment rate is 9% compared to the national unemployment rate

of 4.1% and the poverty rate is at 17.7% compared to the national poverty rate of 12.7%. A

biannual census taken in January 2018 shows the number of unsheltered homeless residents in

San Joaquin County increased from 2015 to 2017, with Stockton bearing the most severe brunt

of the problem. The chances of becoming a victim of a property crime in Stockton is 1 in 25

compared to that of California which is 1 in 39.

However, property crime within the city of Stockton has had a consistent decline since

2008. In Stockton, there was a total of 17,955 property crimes in 2008 compared to 11,634

property crimes in 2016 resulting in a 36.7% decrease. The following chart shows property

crime by type and the decreases in property crime from 2008 compared to 2016:

2008 2016 Changes

All Property Crime 17,955 11,634 -36.7%
Burglary 4,353 2,251 -48.2%
Motor Vehicle Thefts 2,500 1,833 -26.6%
Larceny-Theft 11,783 7,550 -35.9%

In 2016, U.S. households experienced 15.9 million property crimes—a rate of 119.4 per 1,000

households (BJS 2017). Stockton is 48% higher than the state's mean and 54% higher than
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the country's average (DOJ 2018).

Intelligence-Lead Policing Strategies

The department has leveraged a centralized wide range of ongoing efforts across the city

to include collaborations with coalitions to combat blight along with crime. In addition, since

the recession and bankruptcy, SPD has been working on restoring personnel resources and has

increased sworn personnel from the nadir of 320 in 2008 to the current levels of 485 to

compliment the 227-professional staff. Together they handle over 400,000 calls for service

annually and have an operational budget of over $110 million.

Over the last several years, the Stockton Police Department has integrated several

intelligence-led policing (ILP) strategies with intense focus on overall crime due to being

selected as one of the six pilot sites participating in the National Initiative (NI). This initiative is

a collaboration with the Department of Justice and designed to build partnerships and improve

trust in the community. While researching what strategies they have implemented, consideration

was given toward the inclusion of technology, shift in predictive analysis and the partnerships

with the community. The technological ILP strategies implemented include expansion of

technology through adopting ShotSpotter, Real Time Crime Center (RTCC), Body Worn Camera

Program, in-car cameras and a collaborative of predictive analysis. As early adopters of Real-

Time Policing, they shifted their practices to be more data-driven and dedicated to evidence-

based practices.

ShotSpotter allows the department to have instant and accurate situational awareness to make

better informed decisions by providing improved situational intelligence. It also assists with the
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investigative process and prosecutions. The technology has a specialized acoustic system that is

able to triangulate a location based on the amount of time the sound travels to the sensors that are

placed throughout the city. Based on algorithms, the information is analyzed at the review center

by analysts on whether they classify as gunshots and the information is sent in real-time to

officers working the beat. “We’re employing comprehensive initiatives to address this and are

integrating our police strategies and tactics to provide the gunfire data and intelligence we need

to combat gun violence and related gun crime” (Business Wire, 2013).

The RTCC streamlines data and information and more effectively manages voice, video and

data inputs and translates them into the most critical intelligence to distribute directly to law

enforcement officers for a more proactive response (Fox, 2014). This can include video, arrest

records, photographs, information from national crime databases, 911 logs to provide a real-time

operational view. While the BWC technology provides a level of accountability and bolsters

transparency to increase public trust, it also provides evidence in police involved incidents that

was once very limited prior to the BWC technology. Currently, all SPD officers deployed are

equipped with the BWC and several other allied agencies are also equipped with both BWCs and

in-car cameras.

SPD uses all of the data provided through these examples of ILP to be combined with Project

ForeBoDe (Forecast Based Deployment) where advanced technology is used to analyze

intelligence and data to forecast crime (area-based) and deploy resources (Womack, 2017). This

is widely used at SPD and for use with Operation Ceasefire, an evidence-based violence

reduction strategy, where they identify those most at risk to be involved in a violent crime and

uses it for person-based focused interventions. Additionally, they educate the community
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through Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED), Neighborhood and

Business Watch groups, and use social media to both garner data collection through tips as well

as educate the public on their coalitions and programs.

The ILP strategies and evidence-based data is shared, analyzed and disseminated through

Information, Communication, and Planning (ICAP) meetings with key personnel. From the

intelligence gleaned from datasets coming in from all the touch points, resources are shifted and

deployed to interrupt and prevent violence through presence, education and focused

enforcement. Results are analyzed for effectiveness and used to inform future strategy

development (Womack, 2017). In addition, the chief of police, Eric Jones, has developed

listening sessions which are a smaller and more personalized version of community meetings or

town hall sessions. From these sessions, he is creating increased trust and hearing specific

concerns of the community to provide that information into the bigger collection of data for

analysis.

Out of the intelligence derived from the various points of information, it was also just as

important to take an evidence-based approach and make some internal adjustments relative to

training. They were able to refine a policing philosophy now recognized as Principled Policing.

This innovative approach resulted in expanded work with both the State Attorney General’s

Office, through its 21st Century Policing Working Group, and the U.S. Department of Justice -

National Initiative for Building Community Trust and Justice (Trust and Justice.org, 2017). In

addition, they have trained personnel in procedural justice and implicit bias.
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Efficacy Evaluation

In assessing the effectiveness of the intelligence-led policing (ILP) strategies described in

Part I on property crime, it was important to look at the correlation in the overall utilization of

technology with human capacity from both internal members of the organization and those of the

community along with partnerships to determine effectiveness. Research was also conducted on

the availability of information on victimization and self-report data on property crimes in the city

of Stockton.

Although, there was no specific data available from National Incident-Based Reporting

System (NIBRS) or anything specific from the city of Stockton or the police department, data

was extrapolated from an Operations Report and Data Analysis SPD report conducted in 2010.

One of the datasets reviewed was the total number of calls the beat units received annually which

was 197,638 with approximately 542 incidents per day. Of this number, 68.9 percent were

initiated by Other which was defined as driven by citizens, and 29.1 percent were police

initiated. Within this larger dataset, there were several categories and nineteen percent of events

were crime-related with property crime 65 percent of that number (ICMA, page 57). As this was

the most relevant information specific to correlate self-reporting, it was surmised that the volume

of calls driven by citizens in the area of property crime could translate to self-reporting versus

being observed or initiated by the police.

Reviewing the benefits of some of the technological aspects of SPD’s ILP, the

ShotSpotter technology in the first nine months of the implementation in 2013 reduced gun

violence in target areas by over 50%. The technology assists in overall real-time policing to

isolate incidents of gunfire that can then be relayed through the Real-Time Crime Center for
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further analysis and connectivity to possible investigations. For example, a car with occupants

was fired at in an intersection. There were two people shooting at the car with only the car

struck by the rounds. Responding officers found eleven expended .45-caliber shell casings at the

scene. An investigation led to the arrest of two suspects that day who later pleaded guilty

(Newswire 2013). Both received prison time and probation. Also assessed was the overall

effectiveness of the technology and data provided in Forbes showed that there were large

numbers of alerts from the sensors with more than a

90% no arrest rate with up to 70% of those alerts

unfounded (Drange, 2016). The article highlighted data

from a few cities including East Palo Alto, CA.

The Real-Time Crime Center (RTCC) creates a clearinghouse of information for analysis

that can become intelligence driven for evidenced-based policing. The integration of the

LexisNexis Crime Map highlights hotspots throughout the city and provides analytics to both the

public and the police. As Stockton was looking for ways to maximize resources while facing

deficits in staffing resources and budgetary funding to reduce crime, they utilized the RTCC to

process data to make more informed decisions on resource allocation. Among the facets of this

approach included a new program, Project Forebode, which is a forecast-based deployment

model. Stockton Police Department has been using Forebode since 2014 and have phased it into

implementation. Together analysts and officers, along with command staff and community,

identify trends and activity per specific districts. "Technical assistance is really the big one and

that comes down to crime analysts, more software hardware data driven approaches we can

apply to mapping out where our violent crime is looking at our trends, who is responsible,"
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(Jones, 2017). Collectively, all the intelligence is then shared at Information, Communication,

and Planning (ICAP) briefings for focused deployment.

Consideration in the impact of specific enforcement and community outreach driven by

the intelligence processed through the RTCC was assessed. As human intelligence is a necessity

to the success of these collective ILP strategies, Stockton Police Department’s participation in

Operation Ceasefire and the Safe Community Partnership has reduced high rates of gang and

youth gang violence. These partnerships bring together criminal justice agencies, social services,

faith leaders and organizations for outreach. Through this collaboration, they have identified that

the majority of violent crime in Stockton is committed by a small percentage of the population.

Combining strategies that shape focused resource allocation, with identifying individuals/groups

that have a higher probability of violence/crime, SPD has improved outcomes. Due to these

partnerships and strategies, Stockton reduced gun homicide by more than 43% between 1998 and

2001.

From March through May 2016, the department saw a 40% to 60% reduction month-to-

month in the selected zones for violent crime. During that same time period, there was a 20-30%

drop in property crime (American Security, 2016). The strategy around Operation Ceasefire and the

Safe Community Partnership has evolved from a primary focus on deterring serious gang and youth

gun violence, to a comprehensive approach that combines deterrence with workforce training,

employment, and other services which impacts all crime within Stockton (Justice.gov). In

addition, between 2013-2016, SPD hired new employees with sworn staffing levels surpassing

420 — the highest level since 2009. These staffing gains, combined with the ILP strategies has

helped Stockton realize significant and steady annual decreases in its overall crime rate, reaching

a 15- year low in 2015 (Womack, 2017).

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Conclusion

A 2013 Stockton community survey in high crime neighborhoods found that 35 % do not

feel police legitimacy in SPD and that 40% of SPD are not unbiased in their policing.

Additionally, only 30% would actively help SPD and 60% might report an incident to the police

(Stanford 2014). The SPD’s four prong approach of enforcement, partnerships, intelligence and

communication has cultivated ways to involve the community that give them a voice, neutrality

and builds trustworthiness in both the police and the community. “Strong relationships of

mutual trust between police agencies and the communities they serve are critical to maintaining

public safety and effective policing. Police officials rely on the cooperation of community

members to provide information about crime in their neighborhoods, and to work with the police

to devise solutions to crime and disorder problems” (Justice.gov).

The efforts SPD is taking to create the reconciliation and transparency with the

community is critical to increased trust from the community. The term dark figures has been

widely used by criminologists to represent the gap between the true extent of crime and the

amount of crime known to the police. The primary sources of this gap are the inability of police

to observe all criminal activity, and the reluctance of crime victims and witnesses to report crime

to the police (Mosher, 91). The assessment of the evidence based, data driven ILP strategies

implemented by SPD are proving to be a move in the right direction. While violent crime is still

persistent, these strategies are increasing SPD’s capabilities to connect with the community,

reshape old policing paradigms, improve policy decisions and reduce both violent and property

crime within the city of Stockton.

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REFERENCES

Department of Justice. Retrieved March 25, 2018, from

https://openjustice.doj.ca.gov/crime- statistics/criminal-justice-personnel

Department of Justice. Why Police-Community Relationships Are Important. Retrieved April 27,

2018 from https://www.justice.gov/crs/file/836486/download

Drange, Matt. (2016, November 17). Forbes. ShotSpotter alerts police to lots of gunfire but

produces few tangible results. Retrieved from

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gunfire-but-produces-few-tangible-results/

Fitzgerald, Michael. (2014, January 26). Recordnet. Retrieved from

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multipliers/

ICMA Center for Public Safety International City/County Management Association Operations

Report and Data Analysis Stockton Police Department. Retrieved from

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and-Data-Analysis-Report-Stockton-Police-ICMA-2010.pdf

Morgan, R. & Kena, G. (2017, December 7). Bureau of Justice Statistics. Criminal Victimization

2017. https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=6166

Mosher, Clayton J, Miethe, Terrance, D, and Hart, Timothy C. (2011). The Mismeasure of
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Crime. (2nd ed.). California. Sage 2011.

Stockton, CA Police Department Announces Use of ShotSpotter. (2013, December 10).

Business Wire. Retrieved from

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Stockton’s Violence Reduction Initiative and Marshall Plan. (2014, April 29). Stanford

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Stockton Record. (2017, March 4). Listening in new ways. Record Net. Retrieved from

http://www.recordnet.com/opinion/20170304/listening-in-new-way

Trust and Justice.Org. (2017, October) Stockton 2017 Interim Status Report. Retrieved from

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stockton-calif-police-reduce-gunfire

Operation Ceasefire and Safe Community Partnership. Retrieved from

https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndca/operation-ceasefire-and-safe-community-partnership

Waitt, Tammy. (2017, August 28). Stockton PD Astors Homeland Security Awards. American

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Womack. (2017). Stockton Police Department Strategic Plan 2017. Retrieved from

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