DISTRIBUCION NORMAL

AÑO MEDIA f(x) Media 410.36

1980 252.84 0.002 Mediana 359.16
1981 629.58 0.001 Desviación estándar 172.37
1982 664.29 0.001 Varianza de la muestra 29710.47
1983 190.94 0.001 Curtosis -1.13
1984 715.28 0.000 Coeficiente de asimetría 0.54
1985 320.82 0.002 Rango 577.16
1986 717.93 0.000 Mínimo 146.74
1987 466.92 0.002 Máximo 723.90
1988 418.91 0.002 Suma 10669.42
1989 360.22 0.002 N 26
1990 208.88 0.001
1991 340.48 0.002 PROBABILIDADES
1992 146.74 0.001
1993 338.25 0.002 PARA UN CAUDAL : 450.00
1994 723.90 0.000 0.23
1995 304.89 0.002
1996 321.29 0.002 PROBABILIDAD : 37.72 %
1997 346.06 0.002
1998 400.22 0.002 RETORNO
1999 411.26 0.002
2000 527.11 0.002 PERIODO DE RETORNO :
2001 565.84 0.002 CAUDAL MAXIMO :
2002 358.10 0.002
2003 485.92 0.002
2004 235.48 0.001
2005 217.27 0.001

DISTRIBUCION LOG-NORMAL
AÑO MAX lnx F(X) MEDIA X
1980 252.84 5.533 0.00239 MEDIA LNX
1981 629.58 6.445 0.00073 DESV. EST. X
1982 664.29 6.499 0.00059 DESV. EST. LNX
1983 190.94 5.252 0.00145 COEF. VAR. X
1984 715.28 6.573 0.00044 C. ASIMETRIA
1985 320.82 5.771 0.00265 RANGO
1986 717.93 6.576 0.00043 MINIMO
1987 466.92 6.146 0.00172 MAXIMO
1988 418.91 6.038 0.00210 SUMA
1989 360.22 5.887 0.00250 N
1990 208.88 5.342 0.00178
1991 340.48 5.830 0.00260 PERIODO DE RETORNO :
1992 146.74 4.989 0.00063
1993 338.25 5.824 0.00260 K =
1994 723.90 6.585 0.00041
1995 304.89 5.720 0.00265 QTr =
1996 321.29 5.772 0.00265
1997 346.06 5.847 0.00257 LIMITE DE CONFIANZA :
1998 400.22 5.992 0.00224
1999 411.26 6.019 0.00216 δ =
2000 527.11 6.267 0.00128
2001 565.84 6.338 0.00104
2002 358.10 5.881 0.00252
2003 485.92 6.186 0.00158 Se =
2004 235.48 5.462 0.00218
2005 217.27 5.381 0.00192 t(1-α) =

Intervalo de Confianza [

PROBABILIDAD :

LNX :
t :
F(t) :

La probabilidad de que el caudal de

no sea excedido es de

DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL
AÑO MAX F(X) MEDIA 410.36
1980 252.84 0.00 MEDIANA 359.16
1981 629.58 1.00 DESV. EST. 172.37
1982 664.29 1.00 CURTOSIS -0.71
1983 190.94 0.00 COEF. VAR. 0.42
1984 715.28 1.00 C. ASIMETRIA 0.54
1985 320.82 0.00 RANGO 577.16
1986 717.93 1.00 MINIMO 146.74
1987 466.92 0.96 MAXIMO 723.90
1988 418.91 0.54 SUMA 10669.42
1989 360.22 0.00 N 26
1990 208.88 0.00
 1991 340.48 0.00 PERIODO DE RETORNO :
1992 146.74 0.00
1993 338.25 0.00 KT = 3.14
1994 723.90 1.00
1995 304.89 0.00 QTr = 951.0296425
1996 321.29 0.00
1997 346.06 0.00 LIMITE DE CONFIANZA : α=
1998 400.22 0.17
1999 411.26 0.39 δ = 3.92
2000 527.11 1.00
2001 565.84 1.00 Se = 132.6465409
2002 358.10 0.00
2003 485.92 0.98 t(1-α) = 1.645
2004 235.48 0.00
2005 217.27 0.00

INTERVALO DE CONFIANZA [

1.20 Gumbel
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00

DISTRIBUCION PEARSON
AÑO MAX MEDIA 410.36
1980 252.84 MEDIANA 359.16
1981 629.58 DESV. EST. 172.37
1982 664.29 CURTOSIS -0.71
1983 190.94 COEF. VAR. 0.42
1984 715.28 C. Asimetria 0.540
1985 320.82 RANGO 577.16
1986 717.93 MINIMO 146.74
1987 466.92 MAXIMO 723.90
1988 418.91 SUMA 10669.42
1989 360.22 N 26
1990 208.88
1991 340.48 PERIODO DE RETORNO :
1992 146.74
1993 338.25 K = 2.714
1994 723.90
1995 304.89 QTr = 878.21 m3/s
1996 321.29
1997 346.06
1998 400.22
1999 411.26
2000 527.11
2001 565.84
2002 358.10
2003 485.92
2004 235.48
2005 217.27

DISTRIBUCION LOG-PEARSON
Año Max LogX MEDIA 410.36
1980 252.84 2.40 DESV. EST. 172.37
1981 629.58 2.80 C. ASIM. 0.54
1982 664.29 2.82 MEDIA LOG 2.57
1983 190.94 2.28 DE. EST. LOG 0.19
1984 715.28 2.85 C. ASIM. LOG -0.216
1985 320.82 2.51 RANGO 577.16
1986 717.93 2.86 MINIMO 146.74
1987 466.92 2.67 MAXIMO 723.90
1988 418.91 2.62 SUMA 10669.42
1989 360.22 2.56 N 26
1990 208.88 2.32
1991 340.48 2.53 PERIODO DE RETORNO :
1992 146.74 2.17
1993 338.25 2.53 K = 2.166
1994 723.90 2.86
1995 304.89 2.48 QTr = 958.42
1996 321.29 2.51
1997 346.06 2.54
1998 400.22 2.60
1999 411.26 2.61
2000 527.11 2.72
2001 565.84 2.75
2002 358.10 2.55
2003 485.92 2.69
2004 235.48 2.37
2005 217.27 2.34

DISTRIBUCION GAMMA 3 PAR

 DISTRIBUCION GAMMA 3 PAR
TAMBIEN LLAMADO LOG PEARSON II

Año n X P(X)
1980 1 252.84 0.04
1981 2 629.58 0.07
1982 3 664.29 0.11
1983 4 190.94 0.15
1984 5 715.28 0.19
1985 6 320.82 0.22
1986 7 717.93 0.26
1987 8 466.92 0.30
1988 9 418.91 0.33
1989 10 360.22 0.37
1990 11 208.88 0.41
1991 12 340.48 0.44
1992 13 146.74 0.48
1993 14 338.25 0.52
1994 15 723.90 0.56
1995 16 304.89 0.59
1996 17 321.29 0.63
1997 18 346.06 0.67
1998 19 400.22 0.70
1999 20 411.26 0.74
2000 21 527.11 0.78
2001 22 565.84 0.81
2002 23 358.10 0.85
2003 24 485.92 0.89
2004 25 235.48 0.93
2005 26 217.27 0.96

Dist. Normal Dist. Log-normal Dist. Gumbel Dist. Pearson

Media 410.36 410.36 410.36 410.36
Mediana 359.16 359.16 359.16
Desviación estándar 172.37 172.37 172.37 172.37
DESV. EST. LNX 0.44
Varianza muestra 29710.47
COEF. VAR. X 0.42 0.42 0.42
Curtosis -1.13 -0.71 -0.71
Coeficiente asimetría 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54
Coef. asimetría log
Rango 577.16 577.16 577.16 577.16
Escala α
Forma β
N 26 26 26 26
Med Log 5.93
NORMAL

BILIDADES
Función de densidad-distribucion-normal
< Q < 730.00
0.003
< Z < 1.85
0.002
72 %

0.002 Funcion de densida

ORNO distribucion normal

0.001
100 años
811.35 M3/seg 0.001

0.000
100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.00700.00800.00

OG-NORMAL
410.36
5.93
172.37
0.44
0.42
0.54
577.16
146.74
723.90
10669.42
 26

RIODO DE RETORNO : 100 años

2.33

1046.905 m3/s

MITE DE CONFIANZA : 5%

1.925084

0.166118

1.644854 TABLA Log Normal

ervalo de Confianza [ 796.60 ; 1375.9 ] PARA Qtr 0.00300

0.00250
OBABILIDAD : 300 M3/S
0.00200
LNX : 5.7037824747
: -0.5141307394 0.00150
) : 0.3 0.00100

probabilidad de que el caudal de 300 m3/s 0.00050

sea excedido es de 30 %.
0.00000
100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00

GUMBEL
 : 100 años

m3/s

: α= 5%

m3/s

TABLA

A [ 732.8 ; 1169.2 ] PARA Qtr

Gumbel

600.00 700.00 800.00

ARSON

INTERPOLACION
0.600 2.755
0.540 2.714
0.800 2.891

100 años
-PEARSON

Interpolacion
-0.200 2.178
-0.216 2.166
-0.400 2.029

: 100 años

m3/s

N GAMMA 3 PARAMETROS
N GAMMA 3 PARAMETROS
MBIEN LLAMADO LOG PEARSON III

Funsion densidad-Distribució
F(z)ordinar lnx T
1.00
0.18 5.53 27 RESULTADOS ESTADÍSTICOS:
0.90
0.88 6.45 14 Media 410.36
0.80
0.90 6.50 9 Mediana 359.16
0.70
0.06 5.25 7 Desviación estándar 172.37
0.60
0.93 6.57 5 Suma lnx 154.15
0.50
0.36 5.77 5 Escala α 5.93
0.40
0.93 6.58 4 Promedio 4.00
0.30
0.69 6.15 3 Forma β 0.44
0.20
0.60 6.04 3 Suma 10669.42
0.10
0.46 5.89 3 Cuenta 26.00
0.09 5.34 2 0.00
100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.0
0.41 5.83 2
0.02 4.99 2
0.40 5.82 2 4.- CALCULO DE Q PARA T (aññ os): 75
0.93 6.58 2
0.32 5.72 2 F(x) 0.9866666667
0.36 5.77 2
0.43 5.85 2 (TABLA) Z 2.2169 .2018
0.56 5.99 1
0.58 6.02 1
0.78 6.27 1
0.83 6.34 1
0.46 5.88 1 Q (CAUDAL) 988.777155055
0.72 6.19 1
0.14 5.46 1
0.10 5.38 1

Dist. Log-Pearson Dist. Ganma 3 Parametros

410.36 410.36
359.16
172.37 172.37
0.19
 0.54
-0.22
577.16 577.16
5.93
0.44
26 26
3
ibucion-normal

Funcion de densidad
distribucion normal

0800.00
 Log Normal

00.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.00

nsidad-Distribución Gamma

300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.00

ESTACIÓN: LA MEJORADA
CUENCA: MANTARO
RIO: MANTARO
AREA CAPTACION: 17472 Km2
ELEVACION: 2819 msnm
AÑO ENERO FEBRERO MARZO ABRIL MAYO JUNIO JULIO
1980 115.84 161.10 252.84 140.67 81.77 69.17 72.77
1981 191.42 0.00 629.58 219.90 107.39 98.60 98.13
1982 373.87 664.29 337.29 229.63 121.77 103.97 105.39
1983 185.87 113.32 190.94 161.53 96.35 85.03 91.16
1984 174.03 715.28 560.87 345.17 140.23 118.03 93.23
1985 209.70 277.42 320.82 317.45 159.01 136.38 122.15
1986 334.98 610.13 717.93 491.67 143.99 185.84 143.12
1987 466.92 0.00 220.97 444.52 118.06 90.33 155.64
1988 350.01 418.91 327.18 325.91 145.92 118.43 107.60
1989 360.22 300.02 166.21 312.23 151.69 145.67 134.21
1990 208.88 155.60 106.11 85.31 75.81 77.09 71.45
1991 165.61 156.17 340.48 160.23 122.95 85.76 92.42
1992 90.30 66.53 146.74 64.05 47.78 50.19 48.88
1993 112.72 299.65 291.49 202.94 130.20 79.53 77.50
1994 342.73 723.90 518.09 429.05 195.48 139.27 117.77
1995 134.07 155.01 304.89 191.62 84.83 82.74 83.48
1996 181.75 321.29 265.12 238.55 90.27 76.82 79.02
1997 174.21 346.06 237.03 89.54 69.59 69.91 69.37
1998 253.48 335.85 400.22 226.22 64.65 83.74 83.79
1999 126.22 411.26 381.56 298.10 141.71 88.02 88.92
2000 266.49 489.75 527.11 288.03 142.81 102.11 98.21
2001 415.93 403.79 565.84 260.37 121.45 101.05 96.44
2002 103.51 279.46 358.10 225.15 116.12 97.31 96.21
2003 213.85 360.34 485.92 310.95 141.49 105.52 98.34
2004 113.67 235.48 183.17 122.28 82.97 86.07 81.31
2005 184.14 186.14 217.27 142.48 83.89 89.71 92.54
Promedio 225.02 314.88 348.22 243.21 114.55 98.70 96.12
DEV.EST 106.38 202.52 160.58 111.24 34.90 28.53 23.63
Máximo 466.92 723.90 717.93 491.67 195.48 185.84 155.64
Mínimo 90.30 0.00 106.11 64.05 47.78 50.19 48.88
 FUENTE: electroperu S.A

AGOSTO SEPTIEMBRE OCTUBRE NOVIEMBRE DICIEMBRE PROMEDIO max min

66.45 65.77 91.74 94.20 133.21 112.13 252.84 65.77
92.90 99.23 93.23 145.33 293.08 172.40 629.58 0.00
94.06 84.00 101.42 174.10 186.89 214.72 664.29 84.00
89.48 84.30 78.90 57.67 86.09 110.05 190.94 57.67
91.45 97.10 99.74 122.40 266.45 235.33 715.28 91.45
112.41 110.03 102.11 96.29 150.94 176.23 320.82 96.29
122.33 128.30 115.79 111.24 152.60 271.49 717.93 111.24
85.72 90.91 87.77 82.96 152.63 166.37 466.92 0.00
95.46 112.32 75.85 88.43 158.04 193.67 418.91 75.85
107.79 102.88 101.11 119.04 112.80 176.16 360.22 101.11
75.40 72.31 91.15 175.35 185.42 114.99 208.88 71.45
93.85 99.46 85.71 81.42 76.03 130.01 340.48 76.03
47.10 43.97 45.06 46.10 49.31 62.17 146.74 43.97
75.91 68.57 83.94 179.72 338.25 161.70 338.25 68.57
107.59 107.68 91.62 88.07 95.51 246.40 723.90 88.07
84.99 71.50 68.55 80.21 91.78 119.47 304.89 68.55
80.26 79.79 74.82 72.10 101.86 138.47 321.29 72.10
73.89 73.92 79.06 83.33 115.35 123.44 346.06 69.37
88.88 83.59 82.12 86.62 111.96 158.43 400.22 64.65
90.49 94.32 99.36 92.30 132.27 170.38 411.26 88.02
101.06 98.36 15.30 97.41 132.74 196.62 527.11 15.30
94.93 97.09 102.20 105.15 164.74 210.75 565.84 94.93
94.82 94.80 97.22 133.54 232.01 160.69 358.10 94.80
100.55 107.74 98.37 94.57 154.22 189.32 485.92 94.57
91.91 80.19 83.67 110.40 189.18 121.69 235.48 80.19
88.05 81.33 89.87 80.99 93.35 119.15 217.27 80.99
90.30 89.59 85.99 103.81 152.18 163.55
15.15 17.90 20.01 34.17 68.42 48.51
122.33 128.30 115.79 179.72 338.25 271.49
47.10 43.97 15.30 46.10 49.31 62.17