Poisson Distribution

Can be used to evaluate the probability of an isolated event occurring a

specific number of times in a given time interval,
e.g. # of faults, # of lightning strokes time interval

Requirements:
-Events must be random Only applies to the useful life
-Hazard rate must be constant period of a system component

(λt ) x e − λt
Expression for Poisson Distribution: Px(t) =
x!
Px(t): probability of event occurring x times in time t
λ : constant hazard rate (known as failure rate)

Expected value of Poisson distribution, E(x) = μ = λt

(λt)0 e −λt −λt

Probability of zero failures in time t, P0(t) = R(t) = = e
0!
29

Poisson Distribution Example

If the average number of cable faults per year per 10 km of cable is 0.05,
evaluate the probabilities of 0, 1, 2, .. faults occurring in
(a) 20 year period
(b) 40 year period (λt ) x e − λt
Px(t) =
Failure Rate, λ = 0.05 f/yr x!

(a) For a 20 year period, t = 20 yr

(1) x e −1
Expected # of failures, E(x) = λt = 0.05 x 20 = 1.0 Px(t) =
x!
# of failures 0 1 2 3 4
Probability 0.36788 0.36788 0.18394 0.06131 0.01533

Failure Density Function Failure Distribution Function

0.4 1

0.8
probability

0.3
probability

0.6
0.2
0.4
0.1 0.2

0 0
0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 430
# of failures # of failures
 Standby Systems - Poisson Distribution
One or more components are in standby mode ready to operate when the
main operating component fails.

A sensing and changeover device is required to bring the standby unit into
operation when the main component fails.

A S
A: main component
B: standby component
B
S: sensing and changeover device

Failure of standby component B is dependent on the failure or success of the

main component A.

If the components are in their useful life period, their times to failure are
exponentially distributed. Poisson Distribution can, therefore, be applied.

32

Perfect Switching
Assumptions:
- sensing & changeover device is 100% reliable A S
- standby components do not fail in standby mode
B
- components are identical with failure rate λ

The 2-component standby system is equivalent to a single unit which is allowed to fail
once. If there is a 2nd failure, the equivalent unit also fails.

Applying Poisson’s Distribution:

(λt ) x e − λt
Probability of x components failing in time t, Px(t) =
x!
− λt − λt
P (0 fail) = P0(t) = e P (1 fail) = P1(t) = λt. e
− λt
System Reliability, Rs (t) = P0 (t) + P1(t) = e (1 + λt)
∞
2
MTTF = ∫ R s ( t )dt =
λ
0 33
 Perfect Switching : 2-Standby Components
A S This system is equivalent to a single unit which is
allowed to fail twice.
B
( λt ) 2
C Rs (t) = P0 (t) + P1(t) + P2(t) = e − λt (1 + λt + )
2
∞
3
MTTF = ∫ R s ( t )dt =
0 λ

For a system with ‘n’ standby components,

n x − λt
Rs (t) = ∑ (λt )x!e i.e. the sum of first n terms of the Poisson Distribution.
x=0
∞ n +1 The system MTTF is the sum of individual
MTTF = ∫ R s ( t )dt = component MTTF values.
0 λ (since each component gets its turn after
complete operation of the previous
component)
34

Example
Compare the reliability and MTTF of a 2-component system each having a
failure rate of 0.02 f/hr after a time of 10 hr if they are
(a) parallel redundant
(b) standby redundant with 100% reliable sensing and changeover device.

(a) Parallel system (b) Standby system

Using product rule of unreliability, −λt
Rs (t) = e (1 + λt)
Qs(t) = Q1(t). Q2(t) = (1- e − λt )(1- e − λt )
Rs(10h) = 0.982477
= (1- e − 0.02 x10 )2
2
MTTF = = 100 h
Qs(10h) = 0.032859 λ
Rs(10h) = 1 - 0.032859 = 0.967141
1 1 1
MTTF = + + = 75 h
λ1 λ 2 λ1 + λ 2
35
 Effect of Spare Components
Spare component system becomes similar to standby system (perfect switching)
if
- replacement time of a failed component by a spare is insignificant
- failed components are not repaired

With these assumptions, Poisson Distribution method can also be applied to

evaluate the effect of spare components.

Applying Poisson’s Distribution:

(λt ) x e − λt
Probability of x components failing in time t, Px(t) = x!

36

Standby Systems: Imperfect Switching

Sensing & changeover device (S) has a probability of successful operation, Ps
# of successful operations
where Ps =
# of requested operations A S

For a 2-component standby system: B

P (0 comp. fails) = P0(t) = e − λt

− λt
P (1 fails AND S operates successfully) = P1(t). Ps = Ps .λt. e

System Reliability, Rs (t) = P0 (t) + Ps.P1(t) = e − λt (1 + λt. Ps)

∞
1 + Ps
MTTF = ∫ R s ( t )dt =
λ
0

37
 Example
Compare the reliability and MTTF of a 2-component system each having a
failure rate of 0.02 f/hr after a time of 10 hr if they are
a) parallel redundant
b) standby redundant with the sensing and changeover device reliability
between 1.0 and 0.9
(a) Parallel system (b) Standby system
Using product rule − λt − 0.2
Rs (t) = e (1 + λt. Ps) Rs (10) = e (1 + 0.2 Ps)
of unreliability,
1 + Ps 1 + Ps
Qs(t) = Q1(t). Q2(t) MTTF = =
λ 0.02
Rs(10h) = 0.967141 Ps Rs (10 hr) MTTF (hr)
1.00 0.982477 100
MTTF = 75 h 0.98 0.979202 99
0.96 0.975927 98
0.94 0.972652 97
0.92 0.969377 96
38
0.90 0.966102 95